tv Squawk on the Street CNBC May 3, 2019 9:00am-11:00am EDT
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make sure you join us next week huge show with warren buffett on monday in omaha. "squawk on the street" begins right now. >> good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i am carl quintanilla with faber and jim cramer the new york stocks exchange, vice president pence is going to join us this hour talking about the number and the fed and the economy at large futures added to their gain since the print and a lot else to watch including buffett and soft bank and tesla. europe is green.
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our road map begins with amazon getting a buy from bershire hathaway but not warren buffett himself. amazon is apart of the story we told you as well >> i po rush closes up 163% why that may not be a good sign for the rest of the mark >> we'll start with april payrolls better than expected 263,000. construction and healthcare. unemployment goes down to 3.6. the lowest level in part to a slight drop in the labor participation rate that matches last month's increase there has been some talks about for example census bureau starting to hire for the survey next year could inflate the number >> yeah, the healthcare number still not as big if you want to be a jerk, you
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can say manufactures is only 4,000. berk is saying what's happening u.s. steel but, look, it is a good number >> going back to 1969, what the hell is happening? we were funding everything and had huge inflation the vietnam war. it was a time of great turmoil in the country yet, when we look back, we think wow, that must have been some year one of the worst years for our country. >> so we got the best start since '87. 103 months of job growth you got job growth here at 263 bai beating on a consistent bases. >> right
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>> verses all that verses behind me >> which you will get to >> is this an environment in which to be cautious as you were tactically >> nothing gets better than this >> i am worried of the stock market than the economy. the president's tweets seem to be out of ssync of how good the economy is >> right >> i go back to what the fed says, jay powell what he's basically saying is fine janet yellen, we would have said nothing. she's obviously on board there is people who thought he's going to cut who are those people who are the people thought he's going to cut and bow to the president?
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>> well, pinco suggesting that many if not most on the committee would favor a preemptive cut >> we have seen the other way. and taxes. >> maybe the census. i think that april is a strong month in the country because we had issues in march and february we had bad weather so i think things are caught up. that one part that grew the professional, that's a little suspicious >> yeah. >> if larry kudlow were here, he would say jimmy -- with all due respect, it is even better than you think. >> it was great. it was very great. yeah, i love larry >> you mentioned powell. buffett making some headlines
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today saying that there is nobody should be running fed other than jay powell. look, you talk about a dual mandate of strong deployment and slow inflation, they're not fulfilling >> let's go back to '69. now we have strong employment and no inflation i have all these companies on there, of the service now and cloud king what these companies do is save you much >> they cut price all the time >> it is a deflation environment. >> a little walmart story of how walmart is organizing stores >> that's a theme. i wish that someone in the administration understands tech is keeping inflation down
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as long as we keep having great tech in this country, we are fine five weeks incredible productivity gets in. so i don't know -- it is all this against fraud we have to watch for fraud fraud is bad >> of the vision fun >> i don't know what it means. >> is that worrisome to you? >> i have talked to mott he thinks he can go on and raise another big fund it does seem a bit strange it is public >> that's the kind of thing that worries me because that sounds l like david, it sounds like the
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incubators do you remember it >> yes, i do >> what do we do with them >> vertical, vertical, which is horizontal i worry about it ever since you put that idea in my head. i have been watching that ipo. there is another company that's impossible now, it is conceivable but 50 times sales is expensive. >> it is beyond. >> infinity and beyond >> i have tasted it. it tasted a lot like meat. >> well, that and something. >> don't worry about 50 times last year sales. by the way, those sales are growing quickly. >> what do you think they are
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saying to tyson right now. >> it is beyond chicken. >> tyson some of these companies have been around forever. >> it is good. i got a vegan and a vegetarian and they're well beyond me >> a week from now >> there is another one that's coming uber, i think it is called >> on my twitter yesterday, i had an uber driver offered 200 shares, do you think that's tight? >> i think it is nice. are they giving it to them or allowing him to buy it >> oh, that's nice >> did you tell him not to do it what did you advise? >> ill advise? >> it is supposed to be tight as
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a drum remember they put out that statement? how long will it take musk to get the money? >> not long. >> so as city, i believe, right? >> does anyone sense that this is too good to be true >> i don't know. >> i was listening to musk last night, he's very smart i listened to his podcast that he did with freedman >> he's on the other side. >> he's really smart >> let's go to buffett >> we are talking about clues to the melt up and we are talking about beyond me and tesla's capital raising. now buffett telling our becky that bershire is buying amazon >> it does not really -- it is not significant my standpoint.
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one of the title ten one of them want some amazon t it will show up on the etf it is not true that i am buying amazon >> although you have been a fan of amazon and jeff bezos for a long time. >> yes, i am a fan it is not personality changes. it is somebody else's. >> so this is going to show off in some form >> not early >> not necessarily early they run about 13 billion, the two of them. he runs the rest >> you always talk about torros. >> warren has a lot to do.
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>> just not that 13 bil. >> looks like he was late for a while. >> smart >> was it icahn? icahn held onto netflix and apple, he would be worth more than buffett they would have been the greatest investments of all time >> he was early in china rolling over china is coming back >> he's very bullish each week things got better in china. i continue to think stocks to be owned. you know -- did you see the interview with the judge >> yes, i did. >> tony did not get. >> you were tweeting about it. you could not help yourself, could you? >> no, i could not
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i was all over it. >> first of all, i always like to say tony is a -- nice guy >> i will tell you what though going into the bershire meeting, first time in a few years we have so much pillars of news, kraft and apple and amazon and buy backs and succession and occi >> we'll talk about occi later and what mr. buffett told bucky abo about wells. >> senatooor warren -- >> i was a fan of sloane, so what >> i am from philadelphia, we run hot and cold >> never said i had a bad year
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when i had a snowball. >> when we come back, the vice president is going to join us talking about the jobs number and the fed and a lot more take a look at the futures here. responding well to the print, got yields and stocks moving in the same direction today back in a minute we see breakthrough medicines getting to patients in record time. at emerson, when issues become inspiration, creating a better world isn't just a result, it's a responsibility. emerson. consider it solved.
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the latest inisn't just a store.ty it's a save more with a new kind of wireless network store. it's a look what your wifi can do now store. a get your questions answered by awesome experts store. it's a now there's one store that connects your life like never before store. the xfinity store is here. and it's simple, easy, awesome. let's get to the bond pit this morning with rick santelli at the cme group in chicago. good morning, rick
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>> what an interesting week. we are left with notion of productivity and improvements. overall not bad. how did the market respond look at a one week of 2-year, all rate popped a little bit right after the number they dipped rather dramatically for a short period of time they're easy as the dollar it is probably a weekend event the options behind me they really bid treasury volatility up they drain it out every weekend. look at a one-week of tens two is down two on the day and up five on the week. the ten-year chart, we are down on the day dollar index, one week chart is so interesting we dip back under 98 and
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retesting it potentially again do remember we are hovering around 97 to 88 to 90. we are up a little on the day and down for the week. that is significant because it takes you back to 23 months. we all know mario draghi got it ahead of him traders are nervous of our central bank what are the exit request from the marketplace. how is it going to turn out with negative rate? the 112 handle, they could not hold it. we are back below it that's significant as well the deterioration in the yahoo you a euro, should get it to go back to 98
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carl, jim and david, back to you. >> we have not gotten a price yet. remember the regional sports networks when disney acquired? well, it is very close to being announced. although we have not gotten an announcement this morning and sinclair appears to be the victor was not particularly a robust option as we pointed out. the snl sold separately. you are talking about $2 billion at ibita that was at stake here and the multiple of what receive in total amount is going to be pretty low it is going to be pretty low on that $2 billion in ibita and having paid a high multiples, all of which means ibita to disney cap that fox contributes, they paid a higher multiple
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given the divergence of what they bought it for for sinclair is a big deal i want to see if we can find the prices it is important being above ten bill they need financing. i thought they had a private equity partner in there. i thought they were partnering with apollo. you know what's interesting? disney's shareholders don't seem to care about the loss of value in the buying and selling of these. they're looking past that. it is all about disney plus. it is all about sort of the future it is about the studio and they're willing to say yeah, it is a doom business >> the movie is more important now remember they have many, many hits. >> their unreal nature >> it is the allerlargest tv >> the station was not able to do the tribune deal and stop by
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the fcc. >> that's why this is new. >> some place to go, something to buy >> the bigger question continues be and one of the main reasons they did not sell as they thought months and months ago. the distributor, comcast and chart ke charter, they're happy to get rid of them if they can. they increase the bundle price number so much >> youtube got some games, baseball games >> costs a lot of money. yeah >> it is something that may be making union stand out that stock goes down what? as much as it rains? >> every time it rains, it goes down >> it has been a weird spring. >> it goes down all the time >> i was trying to figure it out. >> thank you >> cramer's mad dash is up next
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welcome back to "squawk on the street," time now for our "mad dash. here is the name that you don't typically do in the "mad dash. >> why >> arista network is the plumbing behind a lot of the int internet last night they said there was a pause in one of their biggest customers. when you dig down the pause and the build up is microsoft. it is azure. the question is did they lose some business? maybe everyon to cisco or the rl pause, the fastest growing other than amazon, cloud business. this is going to cause a lot of worries and angst today. >> what does intel tell us >> you take the words right out of my mouth. that's why you are the best ever is or ever been. >> intel signals no pause.
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not as spooked as it has been. >> it took forever to get wages to go up in this country is extraordinary. we are in an environment that's all tech i am going to silicon valley these guys took jobs and close jobs they don't talk about that that's not what they say >> did the feds clue in on all that >> jay >> yeah, yeah did. >> i would love to take jay, old friend >> in palo alto, we'll hear from williams and evans and we'll see if they ratify this view that the inflation decline -- >> that would be fabulous. >> there is a lot of companies doing a lot of great things to keep cost down
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>> they export ipos like we export soybeans. >> they don't take our garbage anymore. >> no, they don't take up plastic. let's talk for one second. i thought it sounded okay. the stock is down. i mean they hammered that stock. >> it was not down that much >> most of them, the wrap was it is the end of the cycle. he was saying look with a pause and this is pause verses end tesla is up. how can tesla be up? how is that possible >> tesla raises their capital raise to $2.7 billion to 2 opinion 3. musk is now interested in up to
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102,000 shares about $25 million doubled than the number we heard yesterday. >> he's incredible you got to love his whole thing. >> he's talking a lot about the robo tax and the power of autonomous and all the data they have accrued and that can all be sent back. they're constantly doing it and the exponential increase in data so that you are towards the end here where he thinks you are going to make this enormous leap in the year. >> the narrative is no longer about making model three profitably it is now about unicorn promises and robo taxis and autonomy. given what the market, you got to prove it. >> i am friends with a lot of nfl players. and all they want to ask about
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tesla. a lot of them own it a lot of them telling negative things about tesla and maybe i should say nice things about elon musk. i like elon. >> i said nice things about him. >> he's brilliant. >> he understands the stock market and notice that he stopped tweeting about 500 million cars he got it together i salute him >> did he know about the quadruple bottom or the unusual activity >> i don't know. he knows stuff i can't everyone understand what he's talking about. >> no, david >> i fell asleep a little bit listening to his podcast last night. >> he's a silver surfer.
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>> what's a silver surfer? >> a marvel hero >> facebook reports they're working with a deal with ftc that includes new service roll outs and executive decisions as they try to put this probe to bed. >> all those things, i felt their crypto currency they are doing is a way of private cash very good. >> the journal spent a lot of time on that >> to me, they should have bought but they'll never get paypal they should have bought paypal when they had the chance showman is terrific. a lot of them bought the stock at 80 or 110 thinking facebook would buy it if you are buying it with the idea that -- >> keeping of course an eye on shares of anadarko and
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occidental and petroleum and chevron, the price of oil which had been down a little bit and pressuring those shares. becky quick also caught with warren buffett trying to get the background on that decision spend or invest or loan $10 billion to occidental which certainly helps their potential bid to acquire anadarko. a higher price they may pay. >> musk borrowing verses -- >> the buffett name is worth a lot. they were willing to accept paying a lot more. let's listen to mr. buffett explain how the deal got done. >> by 7:00, we had a deal.
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they had us committed unequivocal unequivocally. the deal is made with anadarko they had to get their own board approval >> some things i want to mention here as well he's getting the $50 million signing fee today for doing that deal >> unbelievable. >> 50 million bucks just for signing. either whether it happens or not, warren gets the money, at least 50 million >> you can argue again you got to pay the due diligence, lawyering of it it is another 50 million coming into him 50 bases points. i am totally going to go as high as 20 billion. he felt that he had more
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capacity than they want it becky has been making the rounds she was here in new york she's making it very clear they'll do whatever it takes in some ways to get this deal done, including perhaps and this is not her saying out right it is implied in some of the conversation avoiding shareholders if that's what you need to do so, we'll see what chevron chooses to do here as we head into this weekend and anadarko there is some level of frustration on the occi side with the fact that things are moving fairly slow in terms of getting something done with anadarko so that it will start the four days match for chevron. and the question what will chevron choose to do here in terms of competing with that $76, it is worth about $73 right now offered from occi.
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>> this is core laps and just the technology of oil. he's actually more bullish to get to another million, it will take a long time. a lot of this is just what she wants. >> people who believe he has to do this deal or another deal like it. they have 600,000 barrel a day production how are you going to do that they don't have a lot of high quality ancreage >> i don't want to be too force full against that. a lot of people feel the last buy was a smart buy
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>> say again >> why did she take that money >> thought it would help and it has helped >> they better hope -- a five-year curve for oil putting oil at $55 you are not going to have a lot of breathing with 8% those are the one that is go up the most i don't know i think it raises eye brows and ill advised. t >> the $50 million fee is a commitment fee just want to put it out there. >> i find it worrisome not when elon musk is borrowing less than two? >> it is buffett >> hollub is not a name yet. >> not yet >> i am worried about that deal because there is a whole class of people who owns that stock
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because of the 5% yield, suddenly they are a second class verses the younger state that's warren buffett >> a bunch of names we have not mentioned. a couple of problems in child video games, activision guided well below on q-2 as they fight against fortnite these places are kind of like disney they lost destiny and call of duty kind of just hanging in there. everyone started and every executive was told to say better than expected. this is the most bte conference call of the season >> bte >> i got it. >> at least you are not tweeting while i am talking. >> you were tweeting earlier >> i was not tweeting, i was
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te texting. >> i like take two more. i think take two got more game david has not mentioned qualcomm being up again >> you missed it when they passed the little law that qualcomm is not allowed to go down i think you missed it. >> we saw the story today which we infer as well that the trump administration weighing in with the judge and the sec saying hey, don't forget this is a national security priority 5g. don't do anything to hurt us on that >> it is getting eye nannihilat. >> i don't think that's right. their story is a positive one. they don't have the hardware verses software. i thought liam griffin tells a
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great story. no one cares about him and yet it is good numbers >> you mentioned earlier you are on the look out for signs of froth. >> it is close to $70. >> you are calling people shorty now. the problem is this is where you start thinking it is easy money. i am going to call my broker and i am going to ask for 500 uber and everything is great because i saw beyond meat made a lot of money and a lot of money from pinterest and zoom zoom, zoom, zoom >> i keep on trying to tell you that >> the fuel initiations we have seen on uber are research that had not been stellar i see atlantic initiates with neutral. >> it was incredible he's basically saying --
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>> no easy comps and obviously slowed down in recent quarters >> they did not read well. >> today we'll get our answers >> we'll have to do, that's going to be one of those days where you just hope that the system works like they have to come in at 3:00 a.m >> you are confident >> gunpoint they got it together >> cvs shares is not doing much. big bump up in revenues but they had the super bowl and they benefited from that. >> were you on that conference call >> any show that anybody watch got mentioned. >> i am not kidding. any show >> this conference call was, let me tell you about every show we have it was even more promotional than last. >> that seems hard to imagine.
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>> it was not shameless. >> shameless is a cbs' show. >> america watches everything. >> cbs, al access. >> i stream it while i have dinner or everything >> all access? >> twilight zone is back >> well, you watch football. >> yes, it is true >> the question of course is when are we finally going to see something significant between viacom and cbs in terms they'll come together? there are things going on and
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there is some eck change of ideas but they had not gotten down to any real exchange ratio is discussion at this point. >> the continued expectation that you are going to get there. >> cbs of a very long time to get their stuff in in order create wha strong record for thm this is why they are doing it. we have been waiting for quite some time. if you told me it would be may and it would not be this significant talks in terms of hammering out exchange ratio, i would have been surprised. >> no. it looks like most likely at this point >> i have nothing to say >> by the way, just to keep people on top of sub losses, we like to keep track of that dish shares are up
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call is usually later. here are the numbers in terms of last quarter in terms of losses. led by the 4,000 subs that were lost to direct tv. dish came in only at 259,000 >> charter at 145,000. you add that up. that's a lot of people for a quarter. >> that's a quarter cut. >> we have not mentioned shake shack got close to $5 now of maybe a two-year high comps. we were looking at 0.9 >> this has been under performer. it switched this quarter they have a good chicken dish. all i can tell you this is as heavily shortage stock it was one of the things that people focus is going to go higher and higher.
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it has not because of comps. these were better comps than we are used to with these guys. >> given what restaurants have been able to do elsewhere. our thoughts are with him. he has been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. he's one of the good guys and an amazing manager. >> i bumped into him when i was at the dream course sales. he was walking around and talking to people from the company. i don't talk to a ton of people who work there
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>> finally, jim, we have not touched on trade there are some reports out of chinese media, leaders there say these clues we have been given we are in the final stages and talks, they have in negotiating tactics. don't take it seriously. u.s. chambers don't believe we'll get hard commitments on subsidy ending on the china side >> deflation in environment. cut the tariffs and get deflation. >> your buddy chen >> we'll find out more about that in the days to come dow is up 134 led by goldman sachs. back to the 20da0 ys we are waiting for our vice president with eamon javers in a minute
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mr. vice president, thank you for lettinging inus in your of today. the jobs report. give me your sense of whether the administration thinks this can continue, how long can it continue >> i guarantee you president trump believes we're just getting started in this economy. and frankly it was back in 2016, president said, look, you let people keep more of what they earn, cut business taxes across this country, roll back federal red tape, unleash energy, fight for trade deals that put jobs and american workers first at this economy would come roaring back and here we are, april, we're coming up on 6 million jobs created since election day, and the unemployment rate, unemployment rate at nearly 50-year low. this economy is roaring. and i think maybe most meaningful to the president and me is the fact that when we have seen wage growth over the last year, the most rapid wage growth in these numbers has been among working americans, like the
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people i spent time with in deerborn at the ford factory, the people i was just with in norfolk. working americans are winning in the trump economy. and i couldn't be more proud >> it is a hot economy >> the dow has been on a tear with the exception of yesterday. isn't then when you want to be raising interest rates to keep the economy from overheating, to help savor, help get things under control? >> not at all. i think the president suggested the opposite this might be a time for us to consider about lowering interest rates. but we just don't see any inflation in this economy at all. but, you know, back when i was in congress, we had a whole debate about the dual man date of the federal reserve and it might be time for us to consider that again, the fact that the fed looks at full employment and monetary policy and inflation. and instead, by just looking at inflation, you make clear, no inflation happening here, the economy is roaring
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this is exactly the time, not only to not raise interest rates, but we ought to consider cuttinging >> you would like a single mandate for the fed, focus on employment. >> not something the president and i talked about back during my days in congress, we considered it just having the fed just focus again on monetary policy and recognize that their job is to essentially -- you don't s inflation in the economy now this should be an encouragement to every american and also to people that operate our monetary policies >> herman cain, stephen moore, two of the president's picks for the federal reserve board flame out. is the president just picking the wrong people or what's going on here? >> i think the president is very interested in bringing fresh
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ideas to the federal reserve board. as you see him make nominations in the future, he's going to be bringing people in that will bring kind of a renewed and fresh perspective. that's what both of those men represented. there is a process that we go through here in washington, d.c., respect steve moore's decision to withdraw, but what the president is really looking for is people that understand the dynamic approach to this economy that he's been puttingiputting i into practice since first days of the administration. it was early 2017, larry summers, the top economic adviser for the obama administration, said we would never get to 3% growth talked about you have to believe in the tooth fairy for that. no, you had to believe in president trump's agenda for this economy if you cut taxes, get that business corporate rate down to a competitive level globally like we did, if you cut federal
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regulations, if you unleash american energy and fight for the kind of trade deals that we have been able to negotiate, south korea, being negotiated as we speak with china, the usmca with canada and mexico, all of that is coming together to create the dynamic economy and we're just getting started >> what is the president looking for the fed board? political loyalty to him personally, a commitment to low interest rates, a commitment to shake things up there? what does he want? >> i think the president is looking for -- i think he's looking for men and women to be appointed to the board of the federal reserve who are as fiercely committed to the free market as he is. the belief that this economy can expand at a rate we haven't seen in many, many years. we just came off -- absolutely as part of it, but just simply recognizing, remember how many times we heard about the new normal in the last administration administration that the most
quote
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powerful economy in the history of the world grew by less than 2% for eight years, and now the first quarter of this year, 3.2% economic growth when you know first quarter is always the toughest the reality is this is a president who has a boundless confidence in the american people, he has a boundless confidence in the ability of this economy to exceed all expectations and he's looking for men and women on the federal reserve board who share that passion. >> you have two big trade deals hanginging in t ining in the baw first china. >> we had a briefing here at the white house yesterday. we're going to be welcoming the vice premier next week and those negotiations are ongoing president trump remains very hopeful. he has a good relationship with president xi what he made clear to president xi, what i made clear in my interactions traveling with the asia pacific last year, is that things have to change. while we hear one of the latest candidates for president say
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that the democrat side say that china doesn't represent a competition of the united states, you know they're half of our international trade deficit. force technology transfers and intellectual property theft are a reality. president trump made it clear that things have to change with china on the structural issues as well as the trade -- >> one of the structural issues is hacking chinese hacking of american companies. there was a report this week that the president is willing to drop his demand, that the chinese stop hacking american companies. is that true >> i haven't seen that report. what i can tell you is -- >> demand that they stop hacking american companies is part of this deal? >> we made it very clear across the board that things have to change with china, whether it be the debt diplomacy, through the one belt, one road policy that they're advancing, whether it be -- whether it be freedom of navigation, particularly in the south china sea where we asserted america's interests there in new and renewed ways or
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domestic political interference. all of that is a backdrop to the trade negotiations but we -- what we want is a better relationship, more honest and more level relationship with china across the board and president trump believes that by beginning, by resetting our trading relationship, by literally bringing china up to the standard that other nations around the world live up to with regard to intellectual property and force technology transfers that we will begin a process of addressing all those issues. >> let my tick through other topics here. chuck grassley says you have to drop tariffs to get usmca through congress do you think that's the right approach >> we're dealinging with memb io congress, productive meetings yesterday on this issue. usmca is a win for american jobs and american workers. >> do you have the votes >> we're working it. i have every confidence as the president does that as speaker
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pelosi puts the usmca on the floor, it will pass. look, we're going to work with democrats in congress. we're going to address issues raised by republicans. as we move forward on this but make no mistake about it, i'm a guy that comes from the midwest. i remember when nafta was signed into law and it was real education for me through my career where i always just as the president is someone that believes in free trade, i always had a bias or reflexive bias for free trade i saw the way nafta hollowed out communities in the state of indiana. we saw jobs hitting south of the border, president made it clear nafta had to change. we renegotiated the deal in a way that puts american jobs and american workers first and we have every confidence going forward that if speaker pelosi will schedule the usmca for the floor, it will pass. we'll address the issues in the senate and we'll put even -- even a greater momentum into this growing and expanding american economy. >> on china, is it a possibility we get to a deal, a big signing
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ceremony, we see the two presidents and yet there are still some american tariffs remaining in place afterward are all the tariffs going to be pulled out >> i think the whole issue of enforcement is part of what is being discussed now. whether or not the president has imposed -- >> is that a yes or a no >> the president's two favorite words are we'll see. but we put $250 billion in tariffs on, president believes we're in a strong position we could put more tariffs on if we're not able to reach an agreement. but the manner in which tariffs would come off is going to be a part of an enforcement mechanism and all of that is a subject of negotiations as we talk. >> venezuela for a minute. the administration has been saying all this week, with all the chaos we have seen there, all options are on the table does that mean an american military option is on the table in venezuela and do you believe the american people would support the use of american military forces in venezuela? >> venezuela was once the second most prosperous nation in this
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hemisphere and because of dictatorship and oppression and socialism under nick la ma d nicolas maduro, 3 million people have fled the deprivation of that country my wife and i met with refugees during visits to colombia, to brazil the poverty and suffering in that country at the hands of the dictator nicolas maduro is unspeakable. and now with the violence that we saw on television this week, four people lost their lives -- >> u.s. military force is u.s. military force on the table here too >> well, look, all options have been on the table now for two years. in my first trip to south america, president trump had already made it clear that we reserved all options in dealing with what literally is a failed state in venezuela look, we hope for -- we hope for a peaceful transition of power i've met with president juan
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guaido, the legitimate president of venezuela, who was recognized by the national assembly, the constitutional national assembly one of the things that we bristle at this week is the suggestion there was a coup under way in venezuela the national assembly was duly elected by the people. juan guaido was named president under their constitution his efforts this week are all part of a process of the legitimate president of venezuela taking the reins of control. we marshals d ed diplomatic pressure we recognized juan guaido as the legitimate president i had the privilege of calling him the night before and telling him of the president's decision, he would take his oath, we put on unprecedented sanctions on individuals in the maduro regime on enterprises in venezuela and as i said, president trump hopes
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for a peaceful transition of power and we're going to continue to engage nations around the world diplomatically and continue to use the levers of this economy and economic sanctions to -- until nicolas maduro goes and juan guaido is established as the president of venezuela. >> your predecessor, vice president joe biden, got into the presidential race this week. he says that your tax cuts for the rich, he says, haven't worked and that people don't notice them in their daily lives. is he right about that and how do you think the 2020 campaign is going to go when it comes to taxes and the economy how are you going to push back on it? >> i don't often quote "the washington post," but i think they gave his statement four pinocchios the jobs report this morning, 263,000 jobs created, the lowest unemployment rate in nearly 50 years tells a different tale but -- >> he says it is going to be a battle for the soul of america
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is he right? are you going to be battling for the soul of america as well? >> president trump has been advocating an agenda built on the principles of freedom in the marketplace, lower taxes, less regulation, more access to energy, better fair trade deals, but increasingly whether it be joe biden, bernie sanders, elizabeth warren, and others in their party, they're advocating a socialist agenda of more government, higher taxes and the same tired policies that created the malaise of the last administration where we saw less than 2% economic growth. look, we really believe that you look at what is happening in this economy, and that we really believe that's a great story to tell and i can't wait to get out on the campaign trail, whoever the democrats nominate and take our case to the american people. >> mr. vice president, we'll leave it there thanks so much for your time appreciate it. back at headquarters, back to
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you. >> fantastic interview eamon javers with the vice president in washington. the vice president making a fair amount of news despite the blockbuster jobs number and wages up 32 year on year, it is time to consider lowering rates for the fed. given there is little inflation in his view in this country. president hopeful on a china trade deal next week we'll see. president wants to bring fresh ideas to the federal reserve and as far as the usmca goes, we're working it, trying to address democratic concerns. >> backing up the president on the call for the fed rate cut, i think he took it a step farther and brought up this notion, said he hasn't run it bit president, but used to talk about it in congress, maybe the fed should switch to a single mandate of just inflation which is not so radical. that's what the ecb has, for instance but people haven't really brought that up in a while certainly would achieve the president's purpose of only focusing on inflation, which is undershooting the target depends how far he wants that rate cut i doubt there would be much
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traction on that from congress right now. there is an interesting dichotomy in the economy, better growth, better hiring, and yet wages even today in the number, were kind of soft and prices just are not rising that fast. >> 3.2% year over year wage growth, is that where we are. >> which is better than where we have been in previous years. you have unemployment rate at 3.6% and near 50-year low, you see wages, wages to be growing a little bit faster into the 4% range, which is what we had prerecession. >> yeah. >> while we have been listening to the vice president, april ism services comes in at 55.5. lowest since august of 17. our senior economics reporter steve liesman is all over that steve? >> yeah, thanks, carl. i have a special guest who can help us understand it. i'm joined by st. louis fed president james bullard. it isn't every day that we have a vice president on talking about a fed, about the fed and
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fed policy and i get to throw it at president, a voting member of the fomc, who says you ought to be lowering rates and maybe not considering the employment mandate, just have an inflation mandate. take it away >> i actually have supported single mandate for the fed in the past i've said that it would clarify what the fed can actually do over the medium term i don't think actual policy would change very much we would still react to the economy and everything, but it would clarify in people's minds that the only thing the fed can do over the immediamedium term s control the inflation rate. >> do they have a point that growth is strong, inflation is low and the fed ought to be cutting rates and if it did cut rates, the economy would sorar >> the way you think about the current situation, you have to step back a little bit there has been a sea change in u.s. monetary policies since january 4th when the chair was at -- in atlanta at the aa
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meetings that sea change has altered the structure of interest rates and you can really see it in the ten year, the ten-year at 325 last fall, now low 250s you're talking 75 basis points on the ten-year. i would attribute the lion share of that to changed fed policy. we know there are long and variable legs. you got to wait and see how big an impact this has on the economy. i think we're in great shape today. we have a great jobs report. inflation is a little low. we can talk about that but we already made a gigantic change in policy, one which i welcomed and supported, most of the committee came to my view about the flat rate outlook and this had a big impact. >> you're saying you already eased through what is sort of derisive open mouth operations by changing your stance on the forward outlook. >> it is not just the rate it is the expected path of the rate over the next two years and we used to be saying, you know,
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50, 100 basis points on that path now we're saying zero or close to zero. >> let's talk about the jobs number did your eyebrows go up towards the top of your forehead when you saw it 26 -- >> it is a good number sounds like since the first of the year we're about 205 or something. on average little bit lower than last year. so this is consistent with the idea that 2018 was going to be faster growth than 2019. i think the news in the last -- just in the last month, the news is that we're not going to get this slowdown to below 2% gdp growth instead we'll slow down to 2.5%, which is, you know, more moderate type of slowdown in 2019 compared to what people were expecting >> i get that, but it looks more like we're closer to 3 we did 3 in the first quarter. >> and there is upside potential that you could just -- >> you could stay at 3 you have this good productivity
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number which i love. looks like productivity is picking up there could be supply side effects here kicking in. i think some good things are happening and it could be that you get even higher growth in 2019 than the numbers i just said. >> okay, we'll get to sara in a second if you have a 2.5 forecast, with a 3 upside, is 2.4 the current funds rate the right rate for that environment and that potential? >> i think we're a little tight on the rate, not too much, but a little bit tight i think the global safe real interest rate short-term is about zero and if you -- >> real rate. >> real rate >> explain that to people. >> real rate is zero if you add the 2% inflation target to that, you get to 2%, we're at 240 sounds a little tight to me. i don't think it is a -- something to really worry about, but sounds tight and core pc
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inflation running at 1.6 making me a little nervous inflation expectations are a little on the low side >> do you agree with -- that it is transient. >> i would like to recenter inflation, take this opportunity to recenter inflation expectations at 2% that would pay handsome dividends for the fed going forward. >> we'll come back to transient. >> my question is on transient, professor bullard. >> excellent. >> of the market reaction to the fed meeting. it seemed like there was real disappointment in market positioning around the fact that chairman powell describes inflation as transient or transitory and suggested it is not persistent enough to make a rate cut >> yeah. i think, you know, again, we have made a big move in monetary policy over the last three or four months. and i think it is time to wait and see how that is going to impact the economy going forward. it is true that the -- the core
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pce numbers have come in a little bit light but of course there is noise in the data as the chair noted a i think this is a point where we probably want to be assessing the data >> so, jim, if indeed we're going to be running 1.5 core pce, the better measure you guys think of inflation, how tight is the fed here do you think it ought to be cutting rates? >> like i say, i'm not averse to the idea that we should try to recenter inflation expectations while the economy is good, and make sure that we're centered at 2% they look a little light to me it looks like markets expect something below 2% inflation over the next five years and i don't think that's a good place for us to be there will be days in the future where the economy is not
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performing so well and those expectations are going down even further. i think it is a reasonable option is to try to recenter inflation expectations on 2%. >> tell us how as a policymaker you react when you hear the president talk about what the federal reserve should be doing with interest rates? >> as you know, all these discussions are very -- get very technical very quickly i think we have our mandate, we're supposed to get full employment, hit our inflation target, keep inflation low and stable many factors come into that. we get advice from all kinds of people including you and including other politicians who -- the chair goes before the senate banking committee, house financial services committee, they all comment on monetary policy we get a lot of input from a lot of different angles. we're used to that and we try to make the best decisions we can we have this mandate we have to come back to
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>> i want to see where your forecasts are here we're at 36 now on the unemployment rate. how low does it go and what level does it make you more nervous about the potential for inflation? >> you know, i think we have talked about this before but the empirical philips curve is very, very weak in this environment. you might be talking about a ratio of 10 to 1 you need 100 basis points of gap to get ten basis points on inflation. and, you know, what do you think 3.6 is that 100 basis points below the natural rate i don't know a lot of people think not. how much inflation are you thinking you're going to get out of the low unemployment rate in this environment. >> before we go, real quick, your gdp number for this year. >> i would be at 2.5 sitting here today >> great jim bullard, thank you for joining us we'll check back with you at the end of the year. excellent question on restraint as usual >> thank you we're on the same page steve, thanks.
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we'll have more on the april jobs report. jan hatzius with us on the beat. two deep dives into the state of the consumer here from the ceo of dunkin' brands later, the ceo of adidas, kasper rorsted don't go anywhere. >> april number, 263,000 jobs created, we're coming up on of million jobs created since election day and the unemployment rate, unemployment rate at nearly 50-year low. this economy is roaring. read earnings reports, looked at chart patterns. i've even built my own historic trading model. and you're still not sure if you want to make the trade? exactly. sounds like a case of analysis paralysis. is there a cure? td ameritrade's trade desk. they can help gut check your strategies and answer all your toughest questions. sounds perfect. see, your stress level was here and i got you down to here, i've done my job. call for a strategy gut check with td ameritrade.
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dunkin', with us to discuss the business is dunkin' brands ceo david hoffman. welcome. >> thank you, sara. >> you came off this nice triple beat on earnings, revenue, comp store sales. was it really -- how much of it wally was the relaunch of the espresso machine which got mentioned a bunch of times >> we're in the midst of a transformation with our blueprint for growth i think we made really smart investments last year. we're still in the early stages. espresso was one of them, one of the biggest undertakings we have ever done. we got the great extraction out
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of the bean. now that we introduced signature lattes, our customer base is huge on flavor fanatics. that's done well for us. we made smart investments around digital, bringing the ip inside the company to be more flexible and nimble we want to remove some of the friction on our app and digital experience, so one click enrollment, reduce simplification on ordering, new skins on the app made the consumers really respond to us we think we're delivering a better experience than some investments the consumer is appreciating right now. >> we saw that in the average check size rising. still traffic is negative. what are you going to do about that >> we're not immune to anything in the industry as well. this has been an industry problem and it is our number one focus, but the consumer has more choice than ever before. and so, you know, we're trying to stay ahead of the curve on the innovation we're not trying to upset our loyalists at the same time, but leaninging into things like
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espresso, digital, our next generation restaurant is all about developing a new experience for the consumer. and, you know, our personality and our culture is all about being coffee bar tenders we're not about being baristas we're about being bar tenders. we're going to continue to lean into -- >> that is the difference between a bartender and a barista. >> you'll see our tap systems in the new restaurants. and it is great nitro, great iced coffee. our crew people, they feel a little bit more authentic, little more gritty and that fits with the soul of the northeast >> a lot of storefronts you see the letters dd now is there a liability in the world doughnut or this an effort to get people to think coffee? what is behind that? >> the whole change was really to pay homage to our past, but also to lean and signal to the consumer something new is going on doughnuts will always be part of our heritage
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dd was part of the vernacular. our customers always call us dunks, dunkin' the consumer responded to our name change. but that's not the whole strategy it is all encompassing as part of the blueprint for growth, transformational blueprint that we're laying out and it is all rolled up under the next generation restaurant. >> in addition to investing, you're trying to cut your g&a a bit. you have a midsingle digit reduction target for g&a how is that going and what are you focused on there >> we're always going to be smart about how we allocate our resources. we have done some smart investments. but i think you know we put 100 million back into the business and so, look, we're very focused on running an efficient business i think our flow through in q 1 was incredible it fits with our asset light model. we're going to be smart about investing in the business, but also be a good steward of our capital as well. >> you can have fewer people working as well in a given
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location is that the possibility in the future >> making the restaurants more efficient is going to be the name of the game whether that's self-order taking kiosks, but also in our next gen restaurants, we built these to be more efficient and easier run for the crew people. we're making small subtle investments around speed too and new technology so we're doing a lot to improve the experience and also make it easier for the franchisee and the restaurant manager to run the restaurants as well. >> when will we see nonmeat alternatives on your breakfast menu after that beyond meat ipo. >> and congratulations to them and to our friends don thompson, i used to work with as well. but we're all headed into sort of a better for you platform and we have tapped into what we think with the power breakfast sandwich and our breakfast bowls in market, into somebody who is looking for healthy on a budget. i think that's been a big part of our success in q 1 is the power breakfast sandwich now the bowls in place
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250 calories on the egg white bowl we'll look at plant-based proteins as well going forward. >> all right, to be continued. david hoffman, thank you for joining us here. >> thank you. more comments we got from the vice president a moment ago in hisnd view with aymeamon javs talking about rates and inflation. >> this might be the time to consider lowering interest rates. we don't see any inflation in this economy at all. there's at that needs to get done today. small things. big things. too hard to do alone things. day after day, you need to get it all done. and here to listen and help you through it all is bank of america. with the expertise and know-how you need to reach that blissful state of done-ness. so let's get after it. ♪ everything is all right what would you like the power to do?® ♪ all right
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that handles anything. that protects what's important. and reaches everywhere. this is beyond wifi. this is xfi. simple, easy, awesome. time for etf spotlight earnings through the communications services etf, ticker symbol is xlc today, no exception, despite what is some news weighing on a number of xoebts, one of the group's biggest holdings, activision blizzard, weaker than expected current quarter guidance overshadows an earnings beat cbs moving lower profits were better, revenue may have missed on weaker results from content licensing and distribution cbs is up less than the market but still double digits for the
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welcome back to "squawk on the street." eamon javers spoke with the vice president, mike pence. he joins us now from the white house. all kinds of topics you covered. >> had an opportunity to talk to him about the fed. this is an administration that has not been shy about publicly pushing the fed to do what it thinks is right. the vice president, though, had an interesting suggestion that to my ear was new. this is not something we have heard from this administration before take a listen. >> back when i was in congress, we had a whole debate about the dual mandate of the federal reserve and it might be time for
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us to consider that again as the fact that the fed looks at full employment and monetary policy and inflation. and instead by just looking at inflation you make clear there is no inflation happening here, the economy is roaring this is exactly the time, not only to not raise interest rates, but we ought to consider cutting them. >> you like a single mandate for the fed, focus on employment. >> it is not something the president and i talked about but back during my days in congress, we considered it just having the fed focus again on monetary policy, and recognize that their job is to essentially manage that. and watch inflation. because you just -- you just don't see any inflation in this economy right now. and the fact that wages are growing, the fact that we're seeing jobs being created all over the country in businesses large and small should be an encouragement to every american and i hope also to the people that operate our monetary
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policies >> this is an administration that has been pushing the fed to not only stop raising rates and hold fast, but the president wants fed -- the fed to begin cutting rates. and now we see the vice president suggesting the fed should get rid of the dual mandate and go for a single mandate focused on employment and not necessarily all of the other factors that the fed has traditionally taken into consideration. so new thinking here at the white house to say the least >> you were able to move him from topic to topic with quite -- with wonderful speed. i wonder what surprises you heard. what made my ears perk up were how he discussed his own evolution on how he thought of free trade. >> so interesting. he said he had this reflexive buy is to free trade and nafta was the thing that changed him and maybe also trump and the trump campaign changed his views a little bit that reflected bias, it used to be called being a republican traditionally republicans were in favor of free trade and letting companies go global as easily as possible.
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this vice president, though, is talking about a political and economic evolution that he's made over the course of his career. >> great stuff today, thanks to you. eamon javers today with the vice president. for more on the fed and this month's strong jobs number, we're joined by jan hatzius at post nine. welcome back >> nice to be here. >> the jobs number first what was your expectation, your reflections on the print >> we thought 195, so clearly an upside surprise and it is actually difficult to poke holes in that report we would take it largely at face value. the only caveat being that month to month these numbers are no y noisy, but wasn't anything that jumped out that said there are big distortions here strong payroll number. household was more mixed big decline in the unemployment rate, but that was driven on the month by a drop in labor force participation. >> there had been some people, high frequency, looked at census bureau hirings
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you discount that? >> i don't think that happened federal government was up 12,000 and that's -- the category where they would show up and it is not really credible that you got a big decline somewhere else because there wasn't a big reason for it. i don't think was a major factor. >> one tiny hole you could poke is manufacturing jobs have been slowing down only 4,000 this month. we have seen that in previous months we saw the ism manufacturing number this month come in almost at 2 -- more than 2-year low what is going on there >> no question the manufacture sector slowed down you see that in a lot of different indicators the press conference, of course, on wednesday and i think it is also reflected in the employment numbers. i think the new information in the employment report was all pretty strong. >> you think that's because of trade that manufacturing is slowing down or could that be a leading indicator of broader weakness >> i think there are a bunch of factors. trade is certainly a factor. chinese growth came down very
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schorply in 2018 that has been an important factor things have improved there but it takes a little while before all of that feeds through into numbers in the u.s. or in europe that's been one of the big discussions in markets, how long is it going to take until the chinese improvement shows up elsewhere in the world. >> the administration is uninfid in their belief that there should be a rate cut. >> i don't see a reason for lower rates at the moment. it makes very good sense to be on hold at the moment. you've got a very strong economy, above trend growth, downward pressure on the unemployment rate, so i think that's an argument against cutting. at the same time, the inflation numbers are well below target, if you focus on the ex-food and energy pce measure, the primary focus. you want to see how that shakes out before you make the next move probably nothinging inothing i happen. >> is it transient
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>> there are factors in there. chair powell enumerated them in the press conference, apparel prices and -- >> cell phones. >> yes there are a couple of obvious ones, airfares, so that -- you know, financial services, there are some important temporary factors and if you look at other measures of the underlying trend such as the mean measure -- that's basically running 2%. at a minimum, you want to wait before you said, you know, we're really materially below target on a permanent basis. >> how do you think about oil potentiallyfeeding into core do we worry about that how does that play right now >> i don't think the impact is likely to be large there are some spillovers. headline inflation is moving back up towards the target now and eventually that's going to have some impact we're talking probably ten basis points or less.
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>> december caused a lot of firms to re-evaluate their forecasts for hikes. yourself included. >> sure. >> are you thinking maybe we had it more right than wrong pre-december you were looking for four hikes this year, right >> right so i don't think we're going to get any hikes in 2019. if it hadn't been for the slowdown in the inflation numbers, then i think that would be a different story potentially. because the economy, you know, partly on the back of the pivot by the fed and the easing of the financial conditions is looking better than it did three months ago. but i think the inflation numbers and the role of numbers offset one another and nothing is the more likely outcome. >> what do you make of rollover in manufacturing surveys you think of chicago ism, things like that. take it seriously? >> not that -- we take every data point seriously i put it in perspective because if you look at the survey more broadly, they sort of have been stable in a weaker range over the last three months.
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and there are a whole bunch of them, not just ism in chicago. a bunch of fed surveys for individual parts of the country. and i think there is still growth in the manufacturing sector it is slower than it was a year ago. >> so 2020 is where there is a pretty big discrepancy you think the fed is going to hike rates, right? >> at the end of the year. >> the market is betting on a cut. why are you going in different directions and many economists agree with you. >> our forecast is for a hike at very end of the year i think the main discussion is around whether there is going to be an insurance cut in the funds rate and the shorter term. that's really more discussion probably about 2019, maybe early 2020 on the back of the weaker inflation numbers. we don't think so. partly because we think there is some temporary -- there is some temporary factors in there and markets have moved away from that expectation a little bit, both on the back of the press conference on wednesday and also
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the numbers today. but we'll see, but i think the probability is pretty low. >> good stuff. a lot to tackle this time. see you soon when we come back, shares of adidas hitting a record high today on the heels of the results. ceo kasper rorsted on the arr,he cqute tompetition and the pulse of the consumer when "squawk on the street" comes right back pnc bank has technology to help make banking easier,
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adidas shares hittinging a rise after a rise in first quarter net profit earlier i spoke to kasper rorsted and asked him about the supply chain issues that have slowed down sales in north america and how far along he was in dealing with it >> we have clearly identified the problem and the solution will still be impacted in the first three quarters of this
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year in the year completely sorted out in 2020. i would argue irritating problem to have. i would rather have that problem than having too many product and not enough customers it is slowing down our growth in north america. >> i want to zoom in on north america for a second we have the under armour numbers yesterday. they're not growing in the whole market you're growing a little bit and nike is growing even faster. talk about that is actually happening on the ground from a competitive landscape. >> so we see a solid growth in america, the market will continue to grow it is driven by large partners like foot locker, kohls and the digital challenges in the u.s. we continue to invest, you probably saw we made a great deal of getting beyonce on board and with beyonce and kanye we have probably three of the greatest creators in the world on the leisure side and continue to invest on the sports side also. >> tell us about that, beyonce collaboration, how it came together and what you got planned? >> we have done a deal with her
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where we'll co-create products, co-brand products. the first products will come out in very limited supply by the end of the year. and then over time, we'll build a great franchise together she's a global idol. she has a global brand and resonated globally when we made the deal official. we have more than 1 billion impressions within 24 hours as the deal was signed. >> how is the easy brand going you experimented with wider releases, the democratization of the brand, if you will how is that experiment coming along? >> so 2018 was a very, very successful year for us and having a broad distribution. we don't expect any saubstantial growth from the yeezy brand this year what we have done is we really globalized the yeezy brand and taken the product to 700 to all markets in the world and we're happy with the relationship we have with kanye and the commercial and the brand
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effective of what we have done. >> europe, doesn't see much growth there the economic data we have been getting goes from bad to worse what is go on with the consumer in europe? >> there is no doubt the overall european market is subdued and has been -- had a negative impact of the ongoing conversations on the brexit. that was created unrest for the consumer i also say the current -- lack of growth in europe is also due to some of the misdoings of our side, will return by the end of the year in europe you won't see high growth rates in europe moving forward because the overall economy in europe is growing at a very, very low rate. >> 40% e-commerce growth a lot of it is the direct to consumer, your own website what other sites and partners that you work with are resonating and doing well for you. >> the u.s. we have a strong relationship with amazon and europe we have with salono and with china, alibaba and tencent. a lot of the talk about china slowing down, we're not seeing
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that we ask the question many times we don't see the slowdown. we see online and increasing growth rate in china >> do you think it is the stimulus that is working or just you didn't see any impact to begin with because it is not higher priced or durable goods you're selling >> we're still very, very -- we have not seen a substantial slow down in our business in china. we doubled our business in china. the biggest business, biggest country in the world for us, we're optimistic for china and for the future. >> finally, do you wish you hadn't sold taylor made for a fraction of the price now that tiger woods made this historic comeback >> we need to be true to what we're doing and golf was really never a core competence of ours. i believe back then and now it was the right decision to make despite the success of tiger golf was not part of our -- golf equipment wasn't part of our core business. i'm happy tilman has better owner now than it had in the
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past. >> private equity owner that is. that was kasper rorsted. the two stories that drive the growth in this current quarter, china, sales up double digit and e-commerce, sales up 40% there north america did slow down, but, again, adidas warned about this basically they just can't get enough supply. they're having a sort of weird supply chain issue to the market, which he said should resolve itself in the next two to three quarters or so. also expects europe to resume growth it is competitive out there. >> interesting china is the largest single market he said now. he's not seeing the weakness that others are talking about. >> there is nike nike continues to -- >> just buying a lot of athletic footwear and things of that nature in the months -- >> what we heard from american companies on the chinese slowdown it was big ticket items, durable goods, manufactured products, autos, that sort of thing really i did not see that in a lot of the names i cover, even under armour struggling in the home market saw strong 12%
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growth overseas and asia pacific, china, was the bright spot >> crazy that under armour, adidas and nike are all kind of crushing it in their own different ways right now >> crushing it in china, i would say. yes. adidas and nike have gone in different directions you heard him talk about beyonce. that was a huge get for them what he did say a billion impressions on the day they signed her with beyonce, kanye and pharrell, they are distinguishing themselves from nike who has all the top athletes under armour doing well with steph curry and others, footwear business grew. the problem for under armour is its core apparel and north america. >> okay. thanks, sara. let's send it over to jon fort, a look what's coming up. >> big data. doesn't do much for your business if you can't understand what the data is telling you tableau is in the business of data visualization stock is up 5% today after
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the street." i'm dominic chu. stocks at their best levels of the day. up by two thirds of one percent. the s&p up following the stronger than expected jobs number every index is green if you look at discretionary, it is the stand out group now the second best performing sector this year behind technology amazon leading the news higher on news bark shire hathaway has been buying shares of the giant. newell brands beat wall street forecasts on sales thank to brands like sharpie and paper mate products. those stocks certainly ones to watch. i will send it back to you at the stock exchange. >> dom, thank you. time to send it over to the group in chicago rick santelli has the jobs day
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edition. >> always exciting on jobs day i would like to welcome the former chair of the president's council of economic advisers under george w. bush i want to jump into it 263,000 jobs more than many predicted no matter what you look at it even gets stronger than what we saw. november '69 last time an unemployment rate was this though, it was 3.6 60.6, employment to population i know that's one of your favorites, ed. it was steady. we lost a couple of tenths on participation. even though year over year wages were 3.2, i would have liked to have seen a bit higher it is the ninth month it has been higher. started 3% higher in 2019. ed. >> a couple of additional comments absolutely rick. the one thing that i would say is that the job growth is still very high.
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i don't mean just this month i always look at the three-month average. it is 169,000. that's still well above what we need to keep up with population. i heard the discussion this morning about that there is really no other interpretation if you are growing at a rate higher than the population growth rate it tells you we are still recovering jobs. that's good. we said years ago there were jobs to be gained. those are still being gained that's good news your point on wages. the 3.2% is good the fact it has been there for a while is significant it affects the average american worker why? if you look at it and take out inflation and say what does that mean net of inflation? it's still 1.5%. that's about three times as high as the average rate of wage growth in real terms that we have seen over the past two decades. again a big deal the one negative thing that i panted to point out is that the average weekly hours was down a
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tenth of an hour that's significant as you know, that's a lot of jobs in terms of the amount of demand in the labor force. that's something we want to watch. it bounced around a will it in the past few months. i hope that would come babb up to 34.5 next month so that's about it. >> let's shift it in third gear and cover a lot in the next minute and a half or so. >> okay. >> another issue, everybody seems to be didn'ting we can't possibly go 3% or higher, cast, and the president and the vice president have said. let's look at it another way many think we are going to go back to 2% i don't think so let's go in the middle 2.5% a $20 trillion economy, an extra half percent, that's sizable, $100 billion a year. can you make a comment >> yeah, yeah absolutely those numbers seem small when you are thinking about tenths of a percentage point it seems small but when you put them in absolute dollars it means a lot. in terms of the future, the good
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news as everybody pointed out this morning is that the productivity number was really good this last quarter it has been good the last year there are two ways that productivity growth can take off. one is you get workers to work harder that happens during recessions and the early parts of recovery. the other is technological change and capital deepening that looks like when we are having look at investment look at the last gdp report. investment rates are up 5 to 6% per year that's way different from what we had in the past that's really good news. and it is, irld say it suggests a bright -- i would say it suggests a bright future in terms of positive gdp growth over the next year or so. >> ed, i like the way you go around the block on the big data points thank you for joining us have a great weekend sarah back to you. >> big show coming up on the closing bell dallas fed president robert kaplan live from the hoover institution monetary conference talking jobs, economy, fed
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decision, maybe the dual mandate. plus the ceo of constellation brands his stock is up 31% so far this year we will talk about him about the no investments, cdp plans, and cinco demayo squawk alley is coming up next i was ready to make my mark, but i didn't know how. i was working the same job for a few years.
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