groups and tried their hands at cricket. the visit aims at strengthening ties between india and the uk. hey, i hope you make some great memories today. thank you for spending some time with us. >> it was a pleasure on my part. victor will be back. "inside politics with john king" starts now. donald trump looks for a new york rebound. >> i've got this guy standing over there looking at me, talking about new york values with a scorn on his face with hatred, with hatred of new york. >> i think most people know exactly what new york values are. >> with an old ted cruz attack line come back to haunt him? and he has just one win, but is john kasich now key to the gop math? >> they're rules. if they don't have enough points to win the game, then we go to a convention. >> news bulletin, we just won wyoming. >> plus, bernie sanders has big mo. >> she's getting a little

nervous. >> i understand they're getting anxious. >> might there be two contested conventions? "inside politics," the biggest stories sourced by the best reporters now. welcome to "inside politics." i'm john king. thank you for sharing your sunday morning. the next big test is the new york primary, nine days away. three big questions for the week ahead. number one, will donald trump not only win but win huge on his home turf and keep alive his narrow chance to clinch before the republican convention? >> because we have momentum. we have a movement. and we're going to turn this country around so fast. >> question two, can john kasich perform stronger in the northeast than ted cruz and prove that he is now the key to stopping trump? >> at a convention, delegates are going to examine who can win in the fall which i -- i'm the only one that can consistently win in the fall.

and secondly, who has the experience and the record to be president? i think our strongest days are ahead of us. >> never talk to reporters after eating a sandwich, that's the moral of that story. question three, can hillary clinton stop bernie sanders's momentum in new york and convince him to dial back his tougher rhetoric? >> i don't think that you are qualified if you get $15 million from wall street through your super pac. i don't think you are qualified if you have voted for the disastrous war in iraq. i don't think you are qualified if you have supported virtually every disastrous trade agreement which has cost us millions of decent-paying jobs. >> two fascinating races. with us to share their reporting and insights, cnn's sara murray, jonathan martin of "the new york times," cnn's manu raju. make it 8 of the last 9 for

bernie sanders. he scored a win in wyoming on saturday and again, 8 of the last 9 says something. just what says it, however, probably depends on which candidate you prefer. and how much you like math. yes, sanders won, and winning means momentum. but delegates win nominations. and in that regard, sanders won nothing yesterday. he evenly split the delegates with hillary clinton who knows that even though the other guy's on a roll, the math still overwhelmingly in her favor. >> we are on the path to the nomination, but i need -- i need to win big here in new york because -- because the sooner i can become the nominee, i can turn and unify the democratic party like i did with president obama back in 2008. and -- and the sooner we can go after the republicans full time. >> there were 14 democratic

delegates at stake in wyoming. new york awards 247 next tuesday. senator sanders gets the math he needs a big upset. >> there's going to be a very important primary here in new york. and there are a lot of delegates at stake. remember, this is secretary clinton's adopted home state. it's not a crime. i just made that point, you know. if we can win here, it absolutely opens the door to a path toward victory to the white house. >> so he has momentum. she has the math. each is under the other's skin. senator sanders understands he chose his words poorly last week in suggesting, as you heard in the open, secretary clinton isn't qualified to be president. but listen here and then watch all of this interview a bit later on "state of the union." sanders does want to make the case in his view she lacks the judgment to be president.

>> what i said is that a candidate, like secretary clinton, who voted for the disastrous war in iraq, who has supported virtually every disastrous trade agreement which has cost us millions of decent-paying jobs, and who receives incredible amounts of money. we're talking about tens of millions of dollars through her super pac from every special interest that you can think of from the billionaire class, you know. i have my doubts about what kind of president she would make. >> that's an interesting end there. i have my doubts. he's the liberal candidate running against secretary clinton who thinks that the math should get him to dial it back, and yet he seems to be, lisa, dialing it up. >> yeah, well, look. he has a very devoted group of followers who are, you know, following his candidacy. he can basically press a button on the internet and have millions of dollars flood in. sew has this amazing online fund-raising. he has no financial problems. and he knows that the math means he has to win and win really, really big. our count over at a.p. shows

that he needs to win 68% of delegates and superdelegates in all the states that follow. and that's not just places like wyoming. that's places like new york and pennsylvania and california. that is just going to be really hard for him. so he's really shifted his tone in order to make inroads. he started this campaign by talking about how he wasn't going to do character attacks. he wasn't going to run a negative campaign. clearly he's moving into that mode. >> and to that point, before you jump in, he keeps saying that i want to focus on the issues. and yesterday he did press hillary clinton on a number of issues saying be more specific on whether you'd raise the income levels on social security and disability benefits. he says he keeps wanting to do that. and yet when questioned, he's smart. he's been around a long time. lisp to him here on "morning joe" saying why are you accusing me of negative attacks? i'm being so nice to her. >> how often have i talked about hillary clinton's e-mails? have you heard me? not a word. how often have i talked about the clinton foundation's fund raising? have you heard me say one word about it during the campaign? i have tried to stay away from personal attacks.

>> just putting it out there. >> it turns out that bernie sanders is a politician. >> no way. >> and he's ambitious. and he has gotten into this race to, i think, get his issues out there. and it turns out that he has a lot of support. and it turns out that what he's saying has real appeal. and in the process of doing that, he realized that he actually had a chance at this thing. i don't think he actually now wants to walk away from that. so you're seeing more conventional politician-type maneuvers. >> how do you win a race? you have to show a contrast to the other candidate. i think when you talk to the bernie sanders folks, they wish they started that much earlier. perhaps when this book is written on this campaign, they may regret not bringing up the e-mail issue. even though polls show it's not a huge issue, it does go to her trustworthiness. >> you see sort of a line between issues they think will be potent in a general election and wanting to preserve a little

bit for whoever is the nominee so you don't kind of destroy your democrat going up against the republicans. and the issues he thinks will play in a democratic primary which is why he's talking about the vote in iraq, which is why he's talking about super pac funding. these are issues that will be much more potent with democrats than they will be when you move on to the republicans. >> when she goes after him, her numbers actually fall. now, the question for this week is whether that shifted a little bit with his attack on her as being unqualified. i think that prompted blowback towards him we really hadn't seen before in this race. so this ability he's had to go after her and really pay no price and she's been unable to counter is that dynamic shifting a little bit as the race moves into closed primaries and closed primaries in states that really should favor her. >> you mentioned some of the blowback this week. some of it was from his supporters saying hey, wait a minute. don't say she's not qualified. but a lot of it came from quote, unquote, democratic establishment figures saying the tone of the campaign is getting dangerous. let's be honest. most of those people are hillary

clinton supporters. on television saying democrats are worried the campaign has taken a toxic turn. hillary clinton supporters are -- right. he still has a -- yes, it's a long shot, but he mass a mathematical chance to win. you don't drop out of the daytona 500 400 miles in if you've got a chance to finish. >> he's not going to quit. my prediction is he stays in until the very end. >> all the way. >> if you have the money, it's the first rule of politics. if you've got the poen, why would you quit if you're able to raise money and win states. it makes no sense. john kasich on the republican side, he is not winning states and he's running out of money. >> and for hillary, it's not a particularly attractive argument to make to voters when you say i have the math. math argument certainly is probably is not very inspiring. he has momentum because he has the energy behind his campaign. this has been the problem for hillary all along. >> and she's uniquely qualified to understand his position because she was in it in 2007,

2008. she went radio right up to the convention, taking it to the convention and then endorsing then-senator obama. she also, as you heard from her people this week, saying ooh, how can he say she's not qualified? that's a new low some clinton campaign people called it. she never used those specific words, he's not qualified in 2008. but listen, she sure came close. >> there is one job we can't afford on-the-job training for. that is the job of our next president. with all due respect, i don't think living in a foreign country between the ages of 6 and 10 is foreign policy experience. i think that i have a lifetime of experience that i will bring to the white house. i know senator mccain has a lifetime of experience that he will bring to the white house, and senator obama has a speech he gave in 2002. >> ouch! >> ouch! >> it's good to go back and remember that because she was really -- look, she didn't say senator obama's not qualified, but i'm sorry, you cannot listen to that, and there's a lot more

of that. you cannot listen to that and not think what she's saying is senator obama is not qualified. >> there are obvious kp exaggerations on the clinton campaign and the democratic establishment this week. it reminds me in basketball of flopping where you sort of take the charge. so over the top. they are doing this because they need some advantage over bernie sanders. some way to sort of put him on the defensive. and that's why you see them doing this. but lisa is right. her imperative is less to go after bernie in the long term than it is to get bernie's supporters. because she can't really go after him. she needs those folks to be there for her this fall. >> the argument she used against obama are coming back. she stayed in the race when the obama people were saying out because you don't have the math. we're seeing that happen to bernie, too. >> the superdelegates, right? it's hard to see -- by the a.p.'s count, there are 200 who are uncommitted.

a lot of those people are people like president obama who's just not going to weigh in on this. but it's hard to see a lot of the folks that are supporting clinton flip like they did in '08 because, you know, they are by their definition democratic party insiders. he is someone who became a democrat very recently. they don't feel the same connection to him that they did to the president. it's not as much of an historic first. that is an important distinction, i think. >> and more on that distinction in just a minute because team sanders predicts we're heading to a democratic contested convention, too. just like the republicans, they think. does that math add up? we'll take a close look. first, politicians say the darnedest things. donald trump is no cheesehead. and for that, he blames this iconic 1988 presidential campaign image. >> i'm seeing too much of michael dukakis, okay? right? you understand. >> the helmet. >> that was one of the great mistakes in history, putting on the helmet. no, i'll take a pass.

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welcome back. two contested conventions? reporters would love it, but is that a real possibility? well, the bernie sanders campaign thinks so. but let's look at the math. here's where we are right now. they split the delegates yesterday in wyoming. that's a disappointment to sanders. secretary clinton still up in the pledge lead. the lead in new york is next spp she believes she is favored there. bernie sanders was born there. secretary clinton thinks if she wins 55-45, it looks like this, she starts to pull away. she thinks she's on her path to the nomination. senator sanders thinks i can upset you in new york. he can only pick up the net of 25 delegate range. but it would close the gap some. but let's just look at past races, right? clinton's won all these. sanders has won all those.

if you project the demographics as they've played out so far, she wins in the bigger states where you have african-americans and latinos. he's winning in the smaller mostly predominantly white states. let's project that out to near the end. secretary clinton if she wins in the east and mid-atlantic, if senator sanders wins in the west, winning 55-45, roughly, she would stay well ahead until we got out to california. here's the interesting part. even if she won california, 5-45, picks up the bulk of the delegates, sure, the sanders campaign says look, we're going to a contested convention. she is short of 2383. the sanders campaign don't like this math. secretary clinton as lisa mentioned, she has a lot of superdelegates. they'rely 500 in her back pocket. 486. unless a bunch of them, dozens and more of them split and run, she would have enough. she really only needs about 37% of the rest of the pledged delegates as long as she doesn't lose these 486. that would get her over the finish line. so the clinton campaign says talk of a contested democratic

convention is just that, talk. but listen to secretary clinton here when she talks publicly now and criticizes senator sanders' independent past, one of the reasons she's doing it is to keep these people, the superdelegates, in the fold. >> you know, i have been campaigning for democrats, fund-raising for democrats, recruiting democrats to run and win for a really long time. i think about 40 years. and senator sanders, by his own admission, has never been been a democrat. >> not subtle. >> no. not subtle at all. and i think this is -- gets back to what lisa was talking about, which is hillary clinton and democratic activists are engrained with one another. when you do look at the superdelegates and when you get down to the math of it, it's going to get really hard for bernie sanders. and, like, yes, it's been great for him campaigning on, you know, being a socialist and he's been able to puck these economic issues and maybe push her further to the left, but that's not helpful when you need democratic activists on your side. >> by the way, it's act i have

been . >> by the way, it's activists, and politicians tend to look out for themselves first and foremost. they're not going to want to be on the ballot with bernie sanders overwhelmingly. >> hillary does have a point that bernie has a pretty contentious history with the democratic party dating back from his days in vermont. you know, battled with them when he eventually became mayor, when he ran for congress. he has a big fights with them. calling them a morally bankrupt party. actually asked bernie last year if he was going to walk back any of those criticisms. he would not at that time. so clearly he's had this fight with the party establishment which could become problematic. >> that's exactly what makes the clinton people nervous is they don't know when this math becomes unmistakable, which they hope they get an insurmountable lead by the end of the month after these five northeastern states. >> pennsylvania, maryland, connecticut, rhode island, right. >> how does bernie sanders come back in the fold? what does that look like?

they're concerned that because he doesn't have the history with the party, he won't feel the same obligation to not only just to support her, yes, he'll probably support her, but does he campaign for her? how strong is his support? and that matters. >> you see, especially some of his younger stpters almost what i'll call the never-clinton movement. you see this on the republican side. you see a lot of the younger sanders people saying we'll never support her. both of them would have to be big. but we're not there yet. senator sanders still has a possibility. the challenge is he has to break they are demographic lock. where you have a big african-american and hispanic population. in new york is the next big contest. sanders has to upset her in new york to change the math and conversation. and spike lee helping out with a new ad trying to help bernie sanders break through with african-americans. >> people of color have a deeply vested interest in what bernie sanders brings to us in this election. >> people like michael brown, sandra bland and my father, eric garner. zoo they're not just hashtags

and trending topics. >> he sees us as a whole people, as a whole country. that's why i'm voting for bernie sanders. >> so they get the challenge. but the question is, in nine days, can he prove it in new york that he's going to make substantial inroads there? >> and the challenge is that he can't just win new york by a point or two. that's not good enough. the entire nature of -- >> although the conversation would change, you're right from a delegate math standpoint, but if he beats hillary clinton in new york, we'll be having a different conversation. >> and it would go to the convention, and he'd never drop out. but the problem is that democrats have set up this race in a way that favors the person who establishes a large lead from the outset. and it's hard to, when you're playing on those kind of rules, that's hard to climb out of the hole because even if you win, if you don't win overwhelmingly, it's not enough. with we saw that just yesterday when he wins in wyoming, a great state for him. >> basically his team thinks, okay, maybe we come close in new

york or we win by a little bit. then they move into these northeastern states so they don't think they have a chance for. they're looking for when the race moves back out west to california and oregon. they hope they can rack up big wins there and make the case that he's more electable tan her in a general election and have all these superdelegates switch sides. it's hard to see that playing out given the institutional, like, bias he's built into the process towards the person who as you point out establishes a big lead. >> he has that new spike lee add. at the historic apollo treater in harlem, he brought up bill clinton's presidency and says hillary clinton should be held accountable. he brought up welfare and the tough work provisions. if you want welfare, you have to take a job if you can get a job. also the 1984 crime bill. essentially bernie sanders saying bill clinton, that you should hold hillary accountable for bill's record. and bernie sanders suggesting that bill clinton should apologize for this. this was in philadelphia the other day. black lives matters protesters interrupted bill clinton and he got testy. >> i don't know how you would

characterize the gang leaders who got 13-year-old kids hopped up on crack and sent them out onto the street to murder other african-american children. maybe you thought they were good citizens. she didn't. she didn't. you are defending the people who kill the lives you say matter. >> you are defending the people who killed the lives you say matter. now, bill clinton, i've been on the receiving end of that temper, and he's proud of his record. he's proud of his record. and if you remember -- >> he believes that, too. >> if you back in those days, a lot of the pressure did come from the african-american inner city communities where they did have a scourge of crack cocaine and violent crime problems. he says he overshot the mark with tough sentences guidelines. the next day he did say maybe i should almost apologize for that or i'm thinking about almost apologizing for that. did bill clinton, in defending his record, hurt his wife's campaign? >> look, this is the clintons, by all acts, people close to the

clintons say that they're extremely frustrated with this race. and what we've seen is this bursting out in public. and one of the things that they're very frustrated with bernie sanders about is the fact that bill clinton and hillary clinton feel that he focuses on bill clinton's record and then jumps to president obama's record and doesn't talk about president george w. bush who they believe is responsible for much of the economic crash and just skips over this long period and is just pulling out the worst things about bill clinton's record. the thing that drove them particularly crazy about the crime bill is that bernie sanders voted for that bill. >> yeah, you're seeing a lot of the frustration play out here because bill clinton wanted to go after bernie much earlier in this race than the clinton campaign has actually done. so you're seeing that element of it. but you're also seeing that sort of bill clinton from 2008 come out again, the one who sort of wagged his finger at barack obama and that backfired pretty dramatically. i'm not sure if this will particularly, but clearly -- >> that's the imminent reaction. i mean, she has acknowledged

that this overshot the mark. he has acknowledged it may have overshot the mark. i mean, at a certain point, like, you need to be able to embrace that and say we thought this was right at the time. and now we've learned. and that moment does not get any of that across. >> he handed bernie an opportunity there by doing that, but it also happens to be what he truly believes and thinks. he's proud of what he did as president. he believes any kind of democratic politics that is now out of vogue and when pressed he will defend those policies and that record. by the way, lots of folks in his party are glad that he did because they are concerned the party is going too far to the left. up next, a turn to the republicans including a big shift in strategy as donald trump looks for a big new york rebound. and as we have a little fun, try a quiz, go to cnn.com/vote. trur your hand at picking the last winner of the contested last winner of the contested republican convention. if you han muddling through your morning is nothing new. introducing rhinocort® allergy spray

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welcome back. to the republicans now. they say a picture is worth a thousand words. well, is it worth 1,000 votes? maybe more? donald trump is betting much more. the republican front-runner has been uncharacteristically quiet the past few days as his campaign undergoes a reboot of sorts. but he dropped by the 9/11 museum on saturday, something he hopes is a powerful silent message to any new yorker thinking about supporting ted cruz. remember, just last week, cruz won big in wisconsin but he can't count on that momentum carrying over for the critical fight of new york and its delegates. he's from texas, evangelical, tea party. so a steep hill anyway. and then there's this. >> everyone understands that the values in new york city are socially liberal or pro-abortion or pro-gay marriage, focused around money and the media. and i guess i can frame it another way. not a lot of conservatives come

out of manhattan. i'm just saying. >> well, the "new york daily news" didn't forget, you see it there, offering senator cruz some colorful advice. before he went quiet, neither did trump. >> so i looked at him and started talking about our incredible police our incredible firefighters, our incredible people are unbelievable construction workers. who could have done that? who could have rebuilt that? there was never anything like it in this country. the worst attack in the history of the united states. the bravery that was shown was incredible. we all lived through it. we all know people that died. >> senator cruz is standing his ground, though, choosing his words a bit more carefully. >> the people of new york know exactly what those values are. they're the values of liberal democratic politicians like andrew cuomo, like anthony wiener, like eliot spitzer. like charlie rangel.

all of whom donald trump has supported, given tens of thousands of dollars throughout the years. >> all right. so i think it's safe to say new york is not the most welcoming territory for ted cruz. but sara, let's start with donald trump. he has been uncharacteristically quiet. he's having what i call an adult intervention. he has a new hired hand who is trying to convince donald trump to change some things. keep the essential trump but change some things. he's back out on the campaign trail today. what are we looking for? >> well, i think that the idea that donald trump's tone is going to change significantly on the stump, i don't think we should expect to see that. but i think we should see some adjustments. i think the amazing thing about him going to the 9/11 museum was not just that he wasn't there, but there were a dozen cameras waiting for him to talk to them, and he skip tad opportunity. i cannot explain to you how rare it is for donald trump to see a bunch of cameras waiting for him and saying, no, no, i'm going to pass and not talk to these guys. so i think he can continue to go

on the stump. he can continue to hammer ted cruz. but the question is what does he do around that? does he resist showing up on every single television show constantly? and like we saw over the last couple weeks, stepping on his own message. for him to be out there talking about his campaign manager getting arrested, for him to be taking every position on every side of the issue on abortion, that's not helpful, and they are trying to avoid that kind of thing. >> he did call into one of the fox news programs last night and say that -- sort of echo saying what he said there, he thinks ted cruz hates new york. he tweeted out on friday, so great to be in new york catching up on many things. remember, i'm still running a major business. so he was trying to make the case that he was doing his day job, if you will. but to sara's point, they're trying to get him to be a more measured, i guess, is the best way to put it, a measured donald trump. they're also trying to make sure that he gets 50% plus. statewide in new york and then in each of those 27 congressional districts because you fall below 50%, you lose a delegate. conceivable? >> you know, i think that's one reason why ted cruz is not back ago way from that new york city values comment.

in upstate new york, there is division particularly among conservative voters in upstate new york who don't look so well on new york city. so i think that ted cruz believes he can pull away some support from that part of the state. i think they recognize the polling difficulties. winning will be very difficult. but if he can win some delegates there it could be problematic for donald trump if he prevents him from making it winnable. >> that's why you get to see all these great scenes of ted cruz at a mozza factory and john kasich at a deli factory. there's not a lot of republicans in the bronx. but if they can keep him from hitting that 50% threshold, that will help them in the long run. >> ted ruz, it's not new york, it's not his democratic. texas tea party, evangelical. you can make the argument that at least the next nine days and maybe through april as we go to connecticut, rhode island and delaware and pennsylvania that john kasich is the most important man, she's laughing already, in republican politics because if you're going to stop donald trump, you've got to stop

him from getting -- he needs to win 80, maybe 90% of the delegates in the northeast and mid-atlantic. we'll do the math in a minute. but listen to governor kasich here. he knows he has to prove that he can start winning delegates again. as sara noted, he's won only his home state of ohio. he's on television, not going after donald trump, though. >> new yorkers aren't stupid, ted. after we were hit, we rallied, rebuilt. but remembered. we tell it like it is. that's who we are. so when you smear new york values in iowa for votes, we remember that, too. forget about it, ted. >> so that's his super pac. kasich has a campaign ad up talking about his record in ohio. but am i wrong? is he not -- i know you're skeptical he can do it, but is not his performance in new york and then in the rest of april the most important part if you're going to stop trump? >> well, they would make that argument, the kasich camp would make the argument. and they've been really irked by

ted cruz spending money against them because they're saying we're not keeping voters from cruz. we're keeping voters from donald trump. and he should be happy to have us still in the race working to keep donald trump below 50% and trying to prevent donald trump from winner take all. john kasich is not going to go anywhere until he runs out of money or if he somehow seriously embarrasses himself. because he's having a great time running for president. he's having a great time. and he really does believe that he is part of the stop trump effort and that he doesn't want to betray his voters. >> this will not end up in a distant third in new york. >> this is where he has to prove it in the next nine days in new york and then carry it over. up next, a closer look at the republican delegate math and why trump's new campaign guru is so focused on that first convention ballot. now you just book a seat, right? not quite. sometimes those seats are out of reach, costing an outrageous number of miles. it's time to switch...

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there are 783 delegates at stake in the remaining republican contests. in 95 of them are at stake in new york next tuesday.

if donald trump can win all or most, he still has a shot to clinch before the cleveland convention. let's look at the math. 95, let's assume donald trump has a big night. he thinks he can win them all. let's say he wins 75 or let's say that ted cruz and john kasich split the rest. if donald trump gets 75, now let's not take a lot of time. let's play this out. donald trump does very well in the northeast and mid-atlantic. cruz keeps winning out west. you could have a scenario where you get to the end. we have cruz winning indiana here and cruz winning in the west. donald trump winning pretty big throughout the mid-atlantic. then you get to the end in california, let's say trump wins about 70% of the delegates out there on top of that. look where he is. 1193 there. it takes 1237 to win. now if he does even better in new york, even though we were quite generous in the mid-atlantic, can he get to 1237? yes, but it will be tough. he could do it by changing the state of indiana. let's say he wins there. he could win even bigger. and committee get there. that has him at 1204.

what if it goes a little differently and donald trump falls a little in new york, or goes under 50 so he's sharing the delegates. shares more of the delegates as you get through the mid-atlantic. then you get to california. and let's say he still has a strong showing in california. but not quite as strong in california. and something like this happens. then he's back around 1120 or so. at that point the stop trump movement thinks they've got him. but his new convention guys on board, paul, he knows that ted cruz has been having luck in colorado and other places, working the state conventions to get extra delegates. paul says it will all be for naught. >> you've got to understand what the game is. i mean, if the game is a second, third or fourth ballot, then what he's doing is clever. but if there's only one ballot, what he's doing is meaningless. >> there it is. >> if there's only one ballot because they get it. >> of course. >> he gets it which is why he has trump staying in new york. canceled trips to the west coast, stay in new york, win new york, win it as big as you can.

then stay in the nmid-atlantic. one thing at a time is his mantra. he also knows if you get to a republican convention and trump is way sort, forget about it. >> yeah. and the key now is not just can trump get 1237 because that seems difficult it's how short is he of 1237. if he's 25 delegates short, then you think that given the number of unbound delegates that are up for grabs, that trump could find enough to get over that hump. but if he's, as you pointed out, 100 short, it's a different ball game entirely which is why small things matter now. upstate new york districts. who's going to get delegates? what's going to happen if indiana? same thing. who's going to win a district-by-district level? and also keep in mind, a lot of these states are still some kind of proportional. and washington, oregon, for example, you're looking at more split delegates in california where this thing could all be coming down to. we're looking at the possibility of a huge june 7th contest where

you've got cruz and trump fighting it out, and kasich, too, maybe in some of the most liberal parts of america, it could decide who the next gop nominee is. >> if ted cruz picked up all the delegates in colorado, he's worked these conventions very well. if you don't think the republican establishment doesn't want donald trump, the colorado republican party, this is the colorado state republican party, had the #nevertrump in a tweet yesterday. it was unauthorized, the party said. this is what the trump forces are up against, that the establishment, at almost every level, is trying to beat them. >> i think the scary thing for the trump campaign is that second ballot prospect. look where cruz is doing well, those conventions and caucus sites where you need to organize well and have support from party activists in particular. and a lot of those folks are delegates who are going to be voting at the convention. when they're unbound, that's where ted cruz is now openly saying where he can win in that second ballot. >> people are paying attention

and the media is paying attention. it's another negative narrative. coming out of colorado, they were naming delegates in iowa and trump came up short there. they were naming delegates in virginia. trump came up short there. this is all going to be part of the narrative going forward, and they're going to have to show that they can put up some wins at least on that board and that they're not totally getting outorganized just to combat that narrative. >> right. the request he is paul gets it. he's done this since 1976. the question is, is it too late? he didn't bother with colorado because he thought it was done. he thought the cake was baked. the question is can they get there? as they get there, let's have a quick one. we only have a few more seconds. "the boston globe" in their ideas section, this is a satirical front payable. "deportations to begin." so you have a liberal paper in the northeast. i read the sports page. red sox nation, you know. you do have this people saying -- trying to encourage the stop trump forces, if you will. >> and i think this underscores how there's really no good outcome out of this convention for the republicans. either they end up with donald trump who has some of the highest unfavorability ratings

we've ever seen in a national presidential candidate, ted cruz who's taken a series of conservative positions out of step with the general electorate, or this third person that comes out of the fray who hasn't been -- who their voters haven't had their say on. so either one of these options is not ideal if you are, you know, a republican senator on the ticket. >> their argument is it's great drama. and if you get great drama, somebody slays goliath. stay with us. our reporters share their notebooks including new names and new denials of interest as republicans ponder just what lisa was just talking about, wild cards who could be nominated at a contested gop convention. so far 76% of you, good for you, got it right. it was gerald ford who came out on top the last contested republican convention. that was 1976. no one's the same without the game of football...

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let's head around the table, ask our great reporters to get you out ahead of the big political news just ahead. sara murray? >> this appearance we saw from trump at the 9/11 museum, this is part of what the campaign is moping will be more of a strategic shift. his advisers say he's working on these policy speeches. but in the coming states, they want to do smaller events like this. they want him to mix it up with voters. they want him to do these kind of photo ops that send a message that may not be quite as loud and brash as donald trump screaming from the stump or showing up on every television network. but appear a little bit more presidential and still get the point across. obviously, with trump, the challenge is always can you pull this off? can you really impose discipline on a candidate who has essentially done whatever he wants so far in the race for a year? and that is going to be the big question for the trump campaign going forward. >> they've done it for 100 hours. we'll see if they can do it for 100 days. jay? >> at 8:20 p.m. last night, john, i got an e-mail from sources close to paul ryan's office.

on background, they say. it was a long e-mail that had one point. he's not running for president. but the length they went to explain the fact that he's not running for president made me even more suspicious that possibly he might be, in the back of his mind, keeping the slightest possibility open that he will, in fact, be a candidate. it's a puzzling deal, the whole paul ryan issue. they insist, he insists it's never going to happen. it's not going to happen. but i'm reminded of the old saying of protest too much. >> perhaps, perhaps. we'll keep an eye on that. manu? >> the fight between the party establishment and the bases are not just happening on a presidential level. it's happening in senate races and in both parties. mitch mcconnell in indiana, he's going aggressively after congressman marlon stutzman who wants to become a senator. why? he's worried that he could be another ted cruz. he voted against john boehner when he was a kong gressman and

mcconnell and the chamber of commerce and his super pac are spending big bucks trying to stop him and promote an establishment-friendly candidate in that state. this is happening on the democratic side. the party establishment is going after joe sestak and prop up katie mcginty. the democrats may lose in that primary. and they also have a very big challenge in florida where allen greyson is going against the establishment-friendly county. patrick murphy. they could also potentially lose that which would be a big problem going forward. we're seeing this fight happening on a presidential level also happening on the senate side as well. >> insurgency abounds. lisa? >> imagine a new york democratic primary between an insurgent liberal and a party official from a prominent political family. it's not sanders versus hillary clinton. it's the 2014 new york gubernatorial race. that's the model sanders is looking at as he runs against clinton in that state. in that race, liberal college

professor teachout won with her strong anti-fracking position. she won liberals in new york city by talking about reforming the campaign finance system. sanders is trying to do the same. we should see that in the next week and a half. his only problem is that for teachout, won about one-third of the vote. he needs to win more than double that if he wants to make a real play for this nomination. >> interesting to watch. that one did scare andrew cuomo a little bit. i'll close with what jonathan was talking about. the prospect of an open convention has a lot of gop operatives running the tap traps and the odds including friends of ambitious republicans. among the names that come up about who might be the best convention wild card, two south carolina gop stars, governor nikki haley and senator tim scott. the freshman iowa senator joni ernst is another name that comes up. and allies have raised questions about how an open convention might work. but speaker ryan for all those denials of interest jonathan just talked about is the name that by far comes up the most,

the establishment prospective. fiscal conservatives love him and he gets high marks from evangelicals. some tea party members have their doubts. but above all else, even conservatives who would prefer in some other wild card concede ryan has a big emg when it comes for the ready for the job test. as you just heard jonathan say, speaker ryan has people saying it will never happen. but a lot of republicans are still betting otherwise. that's it for us. thanks again for sharing your sunday morning. up next, "state of the union."

mean streets. clinton and sanders getting nasty in new york. >> maybe the american people might wonder about your qualifications, madam secretary. >> he obviously hadn't really studied or understood. >> can clinton dispatch sanders once and for all on her home turf? an exclusive interview next. and born in brooklyn. the come-from-behind challenger shows me his hometown as he faces his toughest battle yet.