a reason to. that's it for us. we thank you for joining us must think oarages here tomorrow. we hope you'll stay with us and be with fbn and neil cavuto as we cover the iowa caucuses that again in just about three seconds. good night from new york. ♪ . neil: welcome, everybody, from des moines, iowa, now we know the caucusing can begin and 300,000 iowaians we are told are ready to do just that. sprinkled across better than 1,680 precincts, some as small as fitting three people, others as large as 3,000 people throughout a state that will decide -- at least getting the snowball rolling

toward the next president of the united states. the way it goes down is 160,000 democrats are to caucus tonight and 140,000 or so republicans. again, it is inexact figure. all about the numbers, who can rack up the numbers. and the bigger the number, supposedly more benefits on the democratic side, bernie sanders and on the he republican side more benefits donald trump. we're going to go first off to peter barns with the latest from there. hey, peter. >> hey, neil, in just a few hours from now, donald trump hopes to be having a victory speech. but for now, doing actually something very untraditional -- actually traditional for this untraditional candidate. he has just left the hotel to go to caucus sites to shake hands and meet republican caucus goers at the churches and schools and other venues that the caucuses are meeting in tonight. we're going to be getting video of that in just a little while. and as soon as we get it,

we'll bring it to you showing donald trump doing something unusual for his campaign. actually going out and shaking hands and meeting the voters. neil. . neil: okay. thank you very, very much. again, the issue with donald trump and his emergence in the polls and this largely evangelical. how did that happen? also in the meantime looking at bernie sanders. he is within just spitting distance of hillary clinton in the latest polls. polls that he trailed by as much as 40 points a few months ago. and the former first lady secretary of state right now. blake burman with the latest from those headquarters. blake. >> hi, kneel good evening to you. they are calling this a caucus celebration tonight here in des moines at bernie sanders headquarters. and win or lose, one way or another, this will certainly be a celebration for sanders in the sense that when he got into this race in late may, he was down according to the des

moines register 41 points. now depending on who you read, it is a toss up between sanders on top of hillary clinton. sanders, though, was trying to downplay expectations somewhat saying that even if weren't to, quote, unquote, win tonight technically when you still look at the delegate map which is really at the end of the all that matters, that even if he weren't to win, maybe he would come up a delegate or two short. anyway it's a large leap from where sanders was seven or eight months ago. on her side hillary clinton was saying she expects to win. of course this is all a part of the expectations game here. but everything that we have seen here and expect here in iowa, it is believed to be a toss up between these two. certainly if not was anywhere near expected months ago. back to you. neil: thank you very much, buddy. and you're going to see some things that look a little

jarring when you see the tabulations coming in from republicans and democrats. keep in mind the democrats show the number of delegates being rewarde awarded. when the republicans release their vote, it will be the raw vote. so it might be jarring to see a number for republicans versus democrats. i'm going to explain that a little bit more as the night ensues. connell mcshane has the night for us. connell: we're going to go over what we have and these are the earliest figures we have in terms of the entrance polls that we've been looking here just over the past few minutes and what we can see here early on in terms of people who have ever attended a caucus before are the earliest figures that probably will change as the night goes on a little bit. but it does give us a good idea. have you ever attended a iowa caucus in the past? 41% said, no, i have not. meaning those are first time attendees. that is a big number. now, it's a smaller number

that we saw back in 2008 when president obama won in iowa with 57% of first time attendees. that was a huge number. record turnout. nobody expecting it to be that time it's not but still historically a big number. who is taking those voters? bernie sanders. the voters going early on 59 to 38 over former secretary of state hillary clinton. so it's 59, 38 on first time attendees. now, where is the early support for hillary clinton coming from? let's look at the women vote. this is interest. breaking big time according to our interest polls at least for mrs. clinton. you say maybe that's a given. no, not necessarily. 59, 40, that's a big lead. last time around, president obama won among women in iowa, which was a big story years ago when he had 35 to hillary clinton's 30. he was a five-point winner

among women over hillary clinton. so she is at least off to a very good start among women. the first time voters, which i think a lot of people are expecting bernie sanders is a relatively big group. now, when did you make your decision? when we go later this hour to the republican side, this is a very, very important question. on the democratic side you see the support seems to have been locked in. just today, yeah, 6%. last few days, seven% some time last week, 5%, last month 18%. meaning that a large number of people, neil, made up their mind on the democratic side. now, what i think is interesting as we go back to you is even if they say they did, that mind could very well be changed inside the caucus site once, you know, the trading goes on inside there. and if somebody isn't viable like a martin o'malley like we talked about throughout the day. then you have the convincing on either side. but it looks like a lot of democrats had their mind made up going in or at least told us they did. neil: yeah, that's right.

at least told us you did. hearing different numbers and depending on who you believe. upwards of 40% have not made up their minds. that is a similar percentage we're told are first timers. they've never done this before. so obviously if they are first timers, they've never done this before. the whole process can be a little bit more convoluted, whereas a typical primary you walk in, walk out. a lot of first timers were surprised to learn that a they had to learn where to go, the precinct where to go and furthermore to stay a while. some of them were a little bit surprised at that whether they would have the patience to continue that. anyone's guess. but, again, that is the unique aspect of these iowa caucuses. the read right now from a fellow who has had a chance to talk to voters across the state and get their gauge on how ready they are with this. jeff flock with the latest in iowa. jeff. >> i am officially embedded with the caucus goers here, so

i need to keep my voice down, neil, because i don't want to disrupt what is a massive turnout here in the awed turmoil. there are actually two other caucus locations in this high school. and this one, i tell you. it's packed. as perhaps you can see they have just started the procedure right now and, you know, famously republicans and democrats do things differently. they do a lot of things differently but specifically they caucus differently. no one here will be going to their side of the room for a different candidate. everyone here will get a paper ballot. i want sorry about the what that looks like. it was just passed out. it's yellow, and it has all of the republican candidates on it. and before they're done here tonight, they will secretly mark that ballot for their choice. democrats of course do it in public, and you kind of have to know what you're -- your neighbor has done. we talked to a lot of people coming in. this is a part of iowa where the so-called establishment candidates will have to do

well. this was big for mitt romney years ago. candidates like john kasich or perhaps jeb bush or a marco rubio need to do well in this county. and we talked to outside the caucus rubio supporter who says he thinks he has the best chance of getting elected in november. listen. >> i think he's one of the few that can beat hillary. look to people at the top of polls, i actually don't see either one of them beating hillary. >> so you can see what's going on here now. there will be speeches first on behalf of the candidates. and, you know, this is a great thing, neil, unlike a typical election where there's no alike you can't wear a button or anything like that. in this location, you get

folks who have buttons on, signs up, they're electioning with their fellow neighbors. you know, i tell you. i'm listening right now, they're asking for somebody to speak for governor christie and no one is here to speak for governor christie. but we do have a senator cruz guy headed up there now. we'll watch this throughout the night. i wish you could be here, neil because it's a fascinating piece of americana. i think i may have lost my ifb, by the way. at any rate, i return it back to you. should be a great night. neil: if this doesn't work out for jeff, he can certainly get a job at the golf channel with that quiet voice. in the middle of all of that. we should explain that republicans and democrats do this a little bit differently. republicans have to declare their candidate -- often by a show of hands and then writing down on a secret ballot.

democrats are a little bit different. supporters for each candidate gather. you hear a lot to talk about martin o'malley and that how he polls very poorly in the middle of this. and what influence could he have in a race like this? well, you have to get this sort of 15% support. and you don't enjoy that, then they sort of caucus those o'malley supporters to go over to -- at least in the democrats case, try bernie sanders, hillary clinton. there's a bit of horse trading going on. and it's very iconic, very americana, and it's the kind of stuff that we might sit back and say whoa whoa. but that's how we're kicking all of this off. pat knows it very well and of course, pat, very instrumental and the emphasis on this state that a few people thought would eclipse new hampshire. said it might be worth along with others in the campaign

making a good show of it in iowa, and it all worked out. larry joining me is as well, politics director. welcome to you both. pat, early on, we're always told turn out, turn out, turn out. that's a big deal, huh? >> yeah. it's a big deal because the candidates trump the outsiders. the new people while trump, sanders are depending on that . neil: right. >> and cruz has the evangelicals perhaps. but we already know -- we're already getting signs in the entrance poll, which is hard to actually dig. it looks like a huge turnout. everything i've seen -- neil: and on both sides; right? >> both sides everywhere. there are precincts that the 300 people last people. they have 500 people. people waiting in line to register, they will not get started on time at 7:30 in some of these places. neil: so that could delay getting results. >> yes. we could be slow.

not because they're not getting results but because the volume may be so great. neil: larry, of course the record books for this, at least in recent memory 2008 when 240,000 democrats showed up to the polls. of course that was largely helping barack obama. of course he staged a dramatic victory then. do you expect anything like that now? and if we get those type of numbers, it's way too early to tell, the rational is that would benefit a bernie sanders. do you agree with that? >> well, it would certainly benefit bernie sanders. i don't think that many people will show up on the democratic side. that doesn't mean that sanders won't win anyway. even with 41% of the caucus participants being new participants, never having participated in a caucus, that's quite a bit of good news for bernie sanders. because he has -- neil: yeah. >> at least in the precaucus polls, winning those people overwhelmingly. hillary clinton does very well with the democrats who come every four years. the veteran democrats. they tend to be older, they

are weighing electability a little bit more than others. younger people have never been to a caucus. sanders greatest strength is with the young. i've seen incredible surveys where he's getting up to 78% of those under 30. those are numbers that rival or exceed what barack obama did back in 2008. neil: you know what's interesting, guys, about this. when you talk about iowa, and it's very important to say. but in the scheme of things, statistically small for the democrats really electing 44 out of what will be 4,763 delegates to their convention in philadelphia. republicans 30 out of the 2,472 will be gathering at their convention in cleveland. so when you step back and see this outside influence of the state. but it's -- >> it doesn't matter. they could go about delegates if they could just to have the

attention. they have themselves as the first real contest, which used to be apart from new hampshire until the democrats jammed up the calendar. and that has made iowa's effect even bigger, at least made it more important, and we're seeing that tonight. the biggest thing in this is the demographic break down. and this college towns where the places where we see young people the most, they are having massive numbers tonight. and -- neil: anything touching those obama numbers eight years ago? >> yes. -- neil: really? >> i'm not saying the whole state. neil: okay. >> i'm saying among young people that turnout could be big and larry's right. we're talking about numbers i rarely ever seen in a cohort voting for one candidate. . neil: all right. >> and then real quickly, larry, obviously on the republican side you've got great numbers that too was thought to be beneficial to donald trump more than anyone else. do you agree with that? >> yeah. it should be more

helpful to him. it's always been pointed out in iowa that evangelical candidates or candidates disproportionally tend to outperform their approximately because the evangelicals tend to outperform the caucus. so that might help cruz to a certain degree and everybody knows there's a certain amount of momentum created for marco rubio. so i think those are your finishers. we just don't know the order. if i had to guess now, it would be trump, cruz, rubio, but iowa is full of surprises. >> i think rubio may do better than third. you can see -- neil: second. and cruz drops to third, that could be significant. >> that means we're heading to a whole different two-man rac. neil: the night is still young. we're only 16 minutes or so into this. and, though, it's very crowded and a lot of people have gotten in there.

but there are crowds that can't handle those crowds and in some precincts. that does seem to be the case. this could get delayed as they try to sort all of this out. the rule was get there by 7:00, get your fannies in the door by 7:00. it's like a closing cell. if you get in this door before the doors close, you can take advantage of the cell, if you don't, good luck. the caucus of 2016 has officially begun. we are in iowa. stick around. [ music and whistling ] when you go the extra mile to help business owners

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neil: all right. you didn't hear it from me, but we've got a caucus going on. caucuses as they're known. that are now voting. they think for the next president of the united states. the democratic or republican side. some the next occupant of the oval office. hard to say this early on who that will be. and all we know for sure is that numbers are strong and crowds are large outside of many voting precincts. in fact, much stronger than they thought. and the democratic side in the 260,000 range that time largely in support of one barack obama. but you never know. the night is still young. but we'll see how it goes. for hillary clinton, what does that mean? again, hard to say. the conventional wisdom has it that a large crowd would be beneficial to bernie sanders and his rabid supporters. consensus is always a dangerous thing. former new mexico governor

joining us now endorsing hillary clinton. governor, way, way too young. but i'm wondering what you make of those crowds. by the way, on both sides of the aisle. what do you think? >> well, i think a bigger turn out helps bernie sanders. but it's not going to be the same as during the obama 2008 election. i think what you need to watch, neil right now if it's going to be close is what the o'malley voter is going to do. you know, when i ended up fourth out of eight, i couldn't get many times the 15% threshold, this is going to be o'malley's problem and if it's a close race, i saw he was at about 3, 4%. what the owe o'malley voter is going to be important. but clearly hillary clinton is a lot better organized i than 2008. she's done it before, she got the support of the des moines

register, which is important. a lot of the older voters that know how to caucus are for her. and i think the younger voters, that helps sanders. but a lot of those younger voters may not know how to maneuver within the caucus. so, you know, it's just too early to tell. but i predict hillary will win very narrowly, and it will be because of superior organization. neil: all right. real quickly, governor, if she loses tonight and she has a very big uphill fight in new hampshire, only her husband came back from going 0-2 at this crucial moment. could she? >> yeah. she can, neil, because after new hampshire, remember iowa and new hampshire, a lot of voters that are not minorities, that are not her women democratic base, they start coming right after new hampshire. you get south carolina, you get nevada, a lot of african-americans, a lot of

hispanics, a lot of union voters that are basically her base. so she can come back. but watch what happens in new hampshire. new hampshire traditionally doesn't always follow iowa. they like to send messages. they say iowa is not going to settle who will be president of democratic or republican side. we're going to send a different message. in '08, obama won iowa big and then hillary squeaked in new hampshire because iowa -- new hampshire wanted to send a message. so it's going to be very -- this is not going to be over tonight. but it is an important to who becomes president. neil: the night is still young and anything can happen. but, again, what we can tell you anecdotal is that a lot of people are showing up for the polls. we can say in some precincts, republican precincts, it is double what it was four years ago in a couple more

liberal-leading precincts those in urban areas, we're told it is about 50% more than it was eight years ago. again, that is only in some. that is not in all. so i think -- a little too soon to judge that. immediately about bernie sanders on the left. or for donald trump on the right. the consensus is the bigger the crowds, the more it's helping those guys in the polls or more colessing ahead in the polls. as i said the night is still i couldn't even. stick around you're watching the continual live coverage of the presidential election 2016. the iowa caucuses are on at ally bank, no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like vacations equal getting carried away. more proactive selling. what do you think michal? i agree.

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neil: all right. i want to take you -- donald trump is at a caucus site right now. with a lot of caucus followers. going from one to the other. that's perfectly fine. you can do that in iowa day of the event. speaking to the troops. he was leading in the polls here. this was in des moines where he was speaking right now. just down the road from where we are. he was leading in the polls but certainly arrested the advance of ted cruz when he's mentioning among other things. ted cruz is likability whether

he was a natural-born citizen. say what you will the validity of the attacks. at least it slowed what had been a permanent rise in the polls or advance in the polls on the part of the texas senator. let's call into the question tonight of whether cruz can maintain the lead that he once had and win this. but there have been some fears that cruz might topple the third as marco rubio makes an end run for the second position. and, again, i stress early that some of the behind the scene poll drama. we should also pass this little information along from dr. ben carson who has been telling folks he's not taking a break from the campaign. but he is going home to florida pretty soon simply because he needs fresh clothes. they're expecting a storm here, and it's going to hit late tonight or early tomorrow i understand. you wouldn't know it today because it was a fairly pleasant day. but iowaians are used to this rapid change in the weather and obviously a lot of folks getting snowed in.

we're perfectly fine with it because we're of a chip shot of some fantastic restaurants. so we're just going to keep extended this stuff out right through the weekend because that's how we roll. carl cameron in the headquarters right now on some of these latest developments and whether this is a win for the texas senator. what are you hearing, carl? >> well, neil, for the last couple of weeks the ted cruz campaign has been very excited saying that the organization would surpass anybody else's and could probably overcome the possibility of donald trump's appeal boosting the turnout to new records. but in talking to republican officials just moments ago, we've got some anecdotal evidence from republican officials both at the state level gop and the national rnc here. there's a real problem with the caucuses being overwhelmed by the crowds. the lines are so long in a number of precincts here in greater des moines that the doors have been kept open. they weren't closed shortly after 7:30 just to accommodate

the people outside to get inside. this crowds were so big that in some cases they have run out of registration forms and in some cases ran out of bolts. this is the indication of the turnout being even bigger than the republican party officials and the various different precinct for all of the campaigns. the cruz campaign was acknowledged to be superior in his organization according to marco rubio and his people. they were conceding the fact that cruz was better prepared. donald trump had made remarks to how some organizations might be better than his. that's what cruz had been complaining. the turnout could be an indication that donald trump has brought a lot of new voters in here, and it might be enough to swamp him. it's way too early to tell that cruz is around some caucus areas too. and then plans to fly to new hampshire right around midnight in order to hit the campaign trail first thing in the morning. so regardless of what happens in iowa, cruz with the national organization every bit is fortified as he said

his iowa one plans to take it on the campaign trail immediately. second what he would like -- winning was what he was hoping for. it may not be possible. we'll see in a few hours but third to rubio would be a disaster for ted cruz. as the only republican who went toe to toe with donald trump and didn't sort of crater in the polls and fall almost out of contention. cruz was in a two-man race with him. we'll find out the outcome soon enough, neil,. neil: all right. well, maybe not so soon; right? with all of these lines and everything else. so we're hearing this as well what carl reported that the lines are very long and in some sites if the lines are outside the door but you're on the line, they're not going to close the door on you. but what that means at a minimum is that it's going to take a while to process all of those folks or process their choices. and sometimes outside of the way, they calculate this on paper and secret ballot largely if you're a republican. caucusing finally decide who amongst you if you're martin o'malley and you're not going to ring up 15% of the vote,

how they recaucus to try to take "no" votes. trust me, it gets to be very confusing. and at a minimum, it could be a late night. foster freeze knows this process very well. he was for rick santorum who was given up for political deadbeat and then when all of the ballots were counted and everything was dotted and crossed, it was rick santorum who was proven the ultimate winner of the iowa caucus. but, you know, foster, the senator didn't get the bang from the buck from that because the confirmation came way afterwards. >> three weeks later. neil: you're still backing? >> absolutely. neil: but he has a tougher fight because there are many rivalling for that evangelical vote; right? >> your question, am i still backing rick -- my wife and i were in ireland and asked the irish guy what's the fastest to the museum? he said whether you're driving or walking, it's the fastest way.

neil: why tough time polls four years ago? so they could be wrong now. but that he has more of an uphill fight now. but what's amazing once people hear his story. what republicans southern baptist winner. and he won two races in the senate race with two more voters. neil: and he lost by a landslide. >> well, that was a whole different story. neil: i understand but the -- not a perfect case; right? >> no. it's -- i mean we don't have time to go into why that was a -- neil: no, but you think he still makes a credible case and his victory four years ago and the fact that he won ten primaries four years ago shows he's a very -- >> plus when we go around these vigils or towns, you have eight people maybe show up. but seven of them suddenly convert to his position even though they came in for different views. veterans administration. give these guys a voucher so they can go to the nearby hospital rather than going 120 miles. and then let those va hospitals that aren't going to survive go --

neil: no, he has a lot of great ideas. let me ask you this. if he doesn't pull out tonight, do you have a backup choice? >> i told you before my wife. i'm not going to back any of these other guys -- neil: you do have a back up choice. >> well, what i -- neil: who is it? >> if he doesn't make it, i'm going to crawl in bed in the fetal position for 30 days. neil: okay. >> but in the meantime i hope i can play i role of how we can bring these people together. because we cannot win if we don't get each other's constituency. neil: but you could accept donald trump, you could accept ted cruz as the nominee? >> heaven's sake. can you imagine these grown adults -- sanders and hillary clinton. they want to hold a gun manufacturer liable if someone is killed with a gun. let's follow that out. if a drunk driver killed

someone with a gm car. neil: we'll get to some of these issues. thank you in the meantime. always good to see you. still early to go here. but some things are becoming very, very clear right now if we could take a peek at it. this is a representation of votes that are coming in right now way, way early, ted cruz -- i'm talking 206 -- not 206,000, 206 votes. remember the republicans are going to be tallied by the number of votes that are being cast one way or the other. when the democratic votes start coming in, they reflect the delegates. so their numbers will appear smaller. it is odd the way they do things here, and i mean no insult to iowaians, but there's a reason and method to this that makes perfect sense. what we're seeing now on the democratic side, this is a count of delegates here. this is not popular vote. but delegates they feel comfortably rewarding now in the democratic caucuses that are coming in.

30 for hillary clinton, 27 for bernie sanders, and 1 for martin o'malley. now, i should stress as well in some of these areas where you get 15% or less of a vote, martin o'malley could play an important role people would try to petition or caucus for his supporters. i think we have ed henry now joining us i think from hillary clinton headquarters am i right? >> that's right. well, you know, you're right. if martin o'malley does not reach what is called viability, 15% at these caucus sites, his supporters could go home or go to another camp. and you're going to see both the clinton and sanders camps fighting for those voters to come over and caucus with them. so there's essentially a second or third ballot and so on. i think the other thing to watch very closely what you're mentioning this big turnout. especially among first-time caucus goers. that could be very big obviously for bernie sanders. we're getting reports of long lines, not just on the republican side. hundreds of people waiting at

some caucus sites still to get in. that kind of turnout is what bernie sanders wanted. he wants to try and put the so-called obama coalition back together. young people who haven't caucused before, they trend big time to bernie sanders. but we have to be careful and cautious because we don't have a full picture yet. we're just getting the early snapshots. it may be a strong turnout but nothing approaching obama style turnout in 2008 and that could mean hillary clinton tonight goes onto new hampshire. and, by the way, as you know a lot of polls show hillary clinton trailing by double digits. but if she got a victory in iowa, it will be a different situation and, by the way, she lost iowa to barack obama in 2008 and went on and won new hampshire. so there's a lot of scenarios, we're getting the early snapshots and we'll see as this plays out, neil,. neil: all right, buddy, thank you very, very much. again, this might look confusing as

these numbers come in. delegates for democrats raw vote for republicans. so these reflect the delegates. remember 1,406 delegates are at stake in the iowa convention. delegates that go to that convention and sort out amongst themselves as they have it. republicans you put the name on a slip of paper and small caucus group, sometimes large caucus group, largely a secret ballot affair. and then that's -- microsoft is tabulating these results and then gets across to us in the media and obviously to you. so you're going to see things reflected in two different ways. it will be confusing. but we'll try to sort all of this out. what we do know is that this early juncture is not everywhere but in a lot of places voting is heavy. lines are long and officials have said on both sides that if you are there online and you are waiting in the line is going out the door, they won't close the door on you. but you can add yourself to said line. so they actually get to the end of the line, they monitor

this guy was the last guy in the line and that's it. so i don't see anything that could get controversial there. but here we go. iowa is off and running and running and running. we'll have more after this hey dad. hey sweetie, how was your first week? long. it'll get better. i'm at the edward jones office, like sue suggested. thanks for doing this, dad. so i thought it might be time to talk about a financial strategy. (laughing) you mean pay him back? knowing your future is about more than just you. so let's start talking about your long-term goals... multiplied by 13,000 financial advisors. it's a big deal. and it's how edward jones makes sense of investing. and i quit smoking with i'm chantix. i decided to take chantix to shut everybody else up about me quitting smoking. i was going to give it a try, but i didn't really think it was going to really happen. after one week of chantix, i knew i could quit.

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neil: all right. let's check where we stand right now. the night is still young, very

young. and we're a long way from finished here, but we are able to give you a representation on how the vote is going thus far with about 2% of the caucus reporting right now. this is a percentage of the vote that they expect here for republicans and express popular vote. in other words, the number of people who vote. 691 to 33% are going for trump. it is very close behind cruz and marco rubio and the rest of the others finishing out of this list. so mike huckabee a former winner here eight years ago. some of the also early juncture, and i stress we have 98% to go are some of these candidates the mentioned and of course big backer four years ago and then this year that might be called into question if rick santorumds does not have a better night. peter ducey in iowa right now on what he's seeing with these crowds hearing so much about. peter.

>> and, neil, there was a line out the door to get into this caucus room. the turnout is a lot bigger than expected. they had seats for 300, there are 527 caucus goers here and hundreds of of them are iowa state students who never caucused before in their lives but showed up, registered as democrats on the spot. and you can see the sanders side is on the far side of the room and they're overwhelmingly on his side. the ones we spoke to is motivated by his message of reforming wall street and they're stubborn. they will not change their mind. as for some of the students here, they're here to listen and their mind can be changed. as for martin o'malley. his turnout for this location is anemic. most of the seats are taken up by bernie sanders supporters. they're trying to sort out

right now if o'malley is going to be viable at this location. and if he cannot come up with 80 people here, then we're going to see a high stakes game of let's make a deal, the clinton backers and the sanders backers are going to try to convince to go to this location. neil,. neil: thank you very much, buddy. the night is still young, the crowds are still long and still a ways to go. early indications so far that ted cruz and donald trump in a very tight fight with a lot more vote to go against the percentage of vote last time democrats counted as delegates. that race too between hillary clinton and bernie sanders also. very, very tight. and we have a ways to go. and we have a lot of lines, and we have a lot of districts and precincts that have run off ballots and run out of paper and run out of a lot of stuff because they didn't anticipate these crowds. welcome to iowa. welcome to the start of campaign 2016. more after this

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neil: all right. well, the iowa caucuses are off, we're reporting live here from des moines, iowa, where it appears that there's a tight race developing amongst ted cruz and donald trump for the honor of winning this state. marco rubio not far behind. i would not lean any significance to what is essentially the 3% of the vote that was gauged last time that, in other words, is a reflection of all the pop vote they think they will get in. this is a reflection of that percentage. so, in other words, we have a long, long way to go. democrats based on the number of delegates that will

ultimately be at stake a little bit more than 1400 and this time there's a slight edge to hillary clinton. but, again, this is -- the 15% of those delegates. so, again, there very, very early on. knows this state well and helped jimmy carter the achievement of the century to get into the white house focusing on new hampshire. but, pat, your quick takes on what we're looking at here? >> well, two things. the republicans are running in effect the primary run by the party in which real people are voting and being counted. if we see what we see now, which is the three candidates cruz and trump keep switching. but we just saw we at least now know from the entrance poll, but the number of new attendees is 46%. trump is winning that about 11 points over rubio and cruz is behind. neil: they could be what's making --

>> and that's could be making a big difference because that turnout is high. on the democratic side, let me be just blunt. the american people and the people of iowa were being cheated. but what's happening right now is only a reflection of delegates, not the hundreds and thousands who turned out to vote. in 2008, there was a calculation of real votes, and i'm wondering whether the democratic party of iowa is going to release those numbers as opposed to what hillary clinton wants, which are delegates particularly if they're manipulating. neil: way too early to tell. >> way too early. but we ought to know this. neil: you've been looking out a lot and getting a gauge of things be what have you got? >> one of the things we're looking at these poll questions and trying to pick out some of the key stoir lines and questions people had going in tonight and seeing what real caucus goers are saying on their way into the caucus sites. for example, when did you decide who you were going to caucus for? and 35% in the last few days

said you know what? now i know who i have made my mind up for. so those are the so-called late deciders. and then want to look at who those late deciders are breaking for. and this is good news for senator marco rubio. 28% over the last few days, which is the last three days breaking for rubio there. and he leads the pack over cruz, trump, and carson among late deciders. so that was one of the big questions after the most recent debate. next question, ever attended a caucus before? 45% said, no, i have not. who are those breaking for? the first time caucus goers and as we would expect, donald trump is doing well among the first time voters. 33%. and that's more than people expect going in apparently holding true, at least according to these entrance polls, neil,. neil: thank you very much. connell mcshane, now to kennedy, she has graciously offered up her hour so we can get cracking on this. your quick read of what is happening here?

because donald trump could be progressive that he could be hit in the evangelical community which not too long ago wasn't exactly a big fan of his. what's going on here? >> i think he is certainly profiting off of momentum. and just about every community and there are those who will say also buttoned up the establishment. it's funny whenever you talk about the establishment people who are part of it. they claim to -- they plead ignorance. i don't know what's going to happen tonight and that's what makes this show exciting. i know there are a lot of people resentful that iowa takes up such a huge part of the caucus and preelection process. but i have to say. the fact that it's so wide open, it could get so chaotic. there are so many bodies, it means that anything could happen. it could break either way. and i'm still expecting quite a surge from rubio based on some of the numbers that connell just gave you. . neil: all right, kennedy, thank you very, very much. expect to hear more as the

night ensues. we're getting some developments here, talk about this flood of information about how microsoft is tallying this stuff up and we're told john roberts is reporting that microsoft is competent they will have the ability to scale up server capacity in realtime. so they should be able to handle the traffic. i have no idea what that means. essentially what it means is they'll be able to keep up with this. okay. we'll see. >> the precincts that are having the problem. they have to go out and print ballots. neil: right. >> so we have a lot of counting still to do. neil: oh, my god, don't get started. marco rubio meanwhile is expected we're told the security endorsement of south carolina tim scott on tuesday. three sources reporting. that's a big deal. >> yeah. that is. . neil: okay. that's your state. >> my state, and he is a popular senator. . neil: all right. and of course, you know, pat was saying. watch marco rubio very early on he was saying he was a surging candidate of course could you imagine if marco rubio takes second place or

even better? that would be a game changer. and for ted cruz, that would be a worrisome development. but we're monitoring it. the crowds are big, the lines are long, but microsoft has the server capacity. which means i don't know. something. >> something good i hope. neil: something good. announcer: a horrific terror attack in paris. then, a brutal act of terror here at home. it's time for a tested and proven leader who won't try to contain isis. . to destroy them. and keep america safe.

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. neil: all right, we're about a little more than an hour into this, in iowa. i can tell you while the vote is far, far from secured and finished. the crowds are longer and bigger than thought. just to give you anecdotal information passed along us to. in des moines precinct 56, democratic officials expected a crowd of 160. about 469 showed up. they had to switch rooms and have overflow of rooms. lines wrapping around the block. there is still another, at another site where they were expecting a crowd of about 300, they got a crowd of about 527. this has been played out in both republican and democratic presincts. what does it mean? >> the results to be trailing in the big precincts and

turnouts, a lot of the numbers are preliminary small precincts scattered around the state for both parties. neil: we know where this is coming? we know for example on the republican side, we're looking at 5% of the projected popular vote, right? >> it's scattered all over the place. neil: no way to glean from a liberal area or moderate area. >> only when we see the county results a little bit. >> the democrats count percentage of delegates? >> count percentage of delegates. right now what i think might happen is bernie sanders will actually win the popular vote, even though they'll show hillary with more delegates. the distribution of delegates in the precincts. the precincts are delegated by the size of the precinct, and the turnout then becomes irrelevant, really. if you have a -- if hillary has a small area and wins a delegate or two, and sanders doesn't, and then you get an area which hasn't even started the process yet, and sanders

wins overwhelmingly, well, he will get the same delegates, but his vote will be much, much bigger. hopefully they'll give us insight. neil: jeff block, you've got the latest for us, what you're seeing at your site? >> reporter: scott county, and bettendorf, at the bettendorf high school, they announced the results. the caucus just breaking up now. perhaps not a surprise. marco rubio, a big winner here. now this is the most moderate part of the state, i would point out, but give you the raw numbers. marco rubio at 171. donald trump second with 100. third was ted cruz with 83. important to note if the moderate was going to do well, they would have done well here in this county, scott county, tends to be a little democratic. did you speak on behalf of marco rubio? can you come down here for a second?

this is an illinois state representative who rubio ground gamed here, there were only four candidates, neil, that had someone speak on their behalf. this is a state representative from the neighboring state of illinois, you came to speak on behalf of marco rubio. >> i did. >> reporter: indicates he had a ground game that had people moving? >> he's very organized and energized, and i think he had obviously a great showing here, winning this precinct, and hopefully has a great showing statewide. >> reporter: tell the folks who you are, by the way? >> my name is mike eunice, state representative of illinois and represent parts of three counties in central illinois. >> reporter: does he have people out here like you elsewhere speaking on his behalf at the various caucus sites? >> he did, he had a very impressive, organized ground game, and hopefully has a solid night tonight and finishes strong, and then that helps push him through in the weeks to come. >> reporter: representative, thank you very much for your

time. i appreciate it. there you go, neil. the latest numbers, looking to who else showed well here, jeb bush with 28. carly fiorina had 14. john kasich had 18. those are your top vote-getters here at the caucus at the bettendorf high school, and we had one next door, right? did we have one next door? rubio there as well? you have numbers? won by 5 votes next door as well. so there you go. there you go, neil. neil: very interesting, that could be a sign of early strength. these numbers might seem low when you hear them in the aggregate, remember multiply that by 1681 all the precincts and caucuses that come together for marco rubio to do as well as he's doing might be an early sign of the poll momentum we've been hearing so much about. way too early to tell here. we have about 10% of the

expected vote in. i can't stress that enough. we're a long way from being done here. herman cain who knows this process well, and some of the byzantine curves well. what do you make what you're seeing thus far, herman? >> the most significant number have you presented in your precaucus results was that 45% of thegoers had never been before, that's what i call advantage trump and advantage sanders. like it or not. secondly, i predicted that trump, cruz and rubio would still finish in the top three. i wasn't going to predict the order. that's still the big unknown. the good news is more people are showing up. and i gotta tell you, 45% of new people going to the caucus is significant in terms of what we can expect later tonight. neil: you know, herman, the fact that both parties are

showing this, seems enthusiasm and long ways largely republican precincts and democratic once as well. there's a collective zeal to get this thing going. what do you think of that? >> i think you absolutely right. what i noticed from a lot of callers to my radio show is the fact that i've had some democrats call and say they're going to go from democrat to trump. so it's not just all one party, and i don't think the labels mean going a lot of the new people that show up. they are not showing up because they're worried about being labeled republican or democrat. they're showing up because they want somebody that has that perceptive fire they talk about, and that is someone that projects themselves as a leader, a fighter, and a winner, and i believe that that's why the three on the republican side are still getting the most amount of votes out of the caucuses. neil: all right, buddy. thank you very much. i want to go back to peter barnes. he is at the trump site and getting an early read what

folks are saying there. they expected a horse race. they're getting. that still early in the go around, what are you hearing? reporter: i want to report that actually donald trump is now back at hotel here in west des moines, and after visiting two caucus sites he went to a catholic church in west des moines first, and then went to an event center in the suburb of clive, iowa to talk to caucus-goers there. he is now back in the hotel, we are told. and as you can see behind me, some of his supporters have started to gather here in this room that he hopes to give a victory speech in, in just a few hours from now. at the church, he was asked if he's going to win in iowa? he said we've worked hard. we'll see what happens, and asked if he was nervous? he said a little. back to you. neil: thank you. now to blake burman at sanders headquarters where the crowds are big and the enthusiasm was big, particularly the last week

or so. blake, what are you hearing? reporter: well, neil, the crowd here should be flowing in probably in the next half hour to hour or so. the race though, on the democratic side, way too close to call at this point. 30% of the precincts have reported hillary clinton up by about five points or so. however, i would caution on that, that many of the precincts in the more populated cities have yet to report. i'll give you a few examples. polk county where, we are in des moines as of a couple minutes ago, 21 of 177 precincts reported. black hawk county, waterloo, 11 of 62. story county, ames, where iowa state university is 8 of 43. 30% of the precincts are in. in the more concentrated urban settings in the state of iowa. the precincts are far, far from reporting and probably a lot has to do with the fact we're getting the reports of the massive overflows. one would think that as that

comes in, that might start to help bernie sanders. as the thinking was, if there is a record turnout or near record turnout, something you know percentage points within what president obama turned out in 2008 that that would favor bernie sanders. clinton with the early lead it appears, but nowhere near close to being done. neil? neil: blake burman, thank you very much. you might be seeing the relatively low numbers out of former maryland governor martin o'malley. do not dismiss the influence supporters could have. at a caucus site, any caucus site, and pat, correct me if i'm wrong here, has to get 15%, if not, hillary clinton or bernie sanders sanders will try to woo him. that's where the relatively small sampling could be taken. >> i doubt there is anyplace he's hitting 15% given the polls. neil: where, most likely,

downing his supporters would go? >> his supporters show largest second support for bernie sanders. >> is that right? >> yes. there are very few of them. what happens inside the room. i would like to point out, i was worried but jim gilmore has gotten two votes. neil: i saw that. the former virginia governor. >> not zeroing out. neil: by the way, who will we hear from first? first from republicans? democrats? how will it go? >> we should be getting numbers first from the democrat -- excuse me, the republicans. they're actually voting. once they actually vote. the democrats are arguing, trading off. these things can go on for a good amount of time before we get it resolved. one thing we just heard in the report, and this is critical, in the large counties where barack obama in 2008 did well where. hillary was weakest, hillary clinton was weakest in 08, those are the areas out, my

guess is, and i'll check when we get a break. i suspect we're seeing a lot of her strength where she was in 08 which is in the western part of the state. sioux city, and those places. >> flipping to the republican side, marco rubio close to 20% of the vote in a state where i wouldn't say he was not really emphasizing it, but he was certainly not prioritizing as much as he was new hampshire. >> no, and no one -- you know, i think the mark for him. he gets 20%, that affects this race greatly, because he put in so little time, and finally as we've been talking the last few days, he has been underperforming in the polls. in other words, high favoribilities. high numbers, well in the debates, doesn't move in the polls. he may be moving votes tonight. that is more important. neil: it is all about momentum. he wants to clear the field of the other guys, when i talked to him the other night,

attended one of his iowa rallies. he said people are going to quit tonight. he didn't say who. the field is emerging in the top tier. >> gary hart came back into iowa after being pulled out and managed to finish second to mondale, eliminating the rest of the field, cranston, many other candidates, hollings and went onto new hampshire and to beat walter mondale and get -- build momentum. neil: walter mondale went on. >> ultimately he did. we have superdelegates in the democratic party and override the people in many cases. >> that would appear, there's going to be controversy here, if the popular vote goes one way, the delegates go another. a lot of people will say wait a minute. >> right, there's going to be trouble here. neil: okay, are you having a good time? >> i'm having fun already. neil: this is the most excited i've seen. >> you it's the -- first the birth of the real voting.

neil: like me, the first dibs at the ponderosa and first dibs at the primary. doesn't get any better than that. pat and i have already promised jell-o shots later on. stick around, it's going to get ugly but at the same time, interesting. all at the same time on basic cable. it's just as it was billed enormous interest in both parties in this kickoff to the 2016 race, and both parties, both parties are seeing substantial crowds. let's just say voters here in iowa are jazzed. and they are ready to rumble. so are we. more after this. this just got interesting. why pause to take a pill? or stop to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use is approved to treat both erectile dysfunction and the urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex

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. neil: all right, it is tight as a tick right now.

the republican race here in iowa. ted cruz and donald trump exchanging the lead back and forth. this is the representation of the popular vote, the individual vote of iowans expressed right now. and this has gone back and forth. look what's going on in third place here, marco rubio close to garnering 20% of the vote. a state that was almost like an afterthought, might want to minimize that. he beefed up appearances when he noticed poll numbers surging there. that is a development to watch as is the tight race on the democratic side, peter ducey in ames, iowa where the crowds are long i guess, huh? >> reporter: they are, neil, they're clearing out a little bit, they divvied up the delegates. we were told within the last-minute, at this location where there was a much larger turnout for sanders backers than hillary backers, sanders gets five delegates, clinton gets three.

we spoke to people for hillary clinton, they said they are not disappointed. in a college town they think that somebody like senator sanders is going to get a lot more support, and in line with that, there are big student housing apartments across the street. we're told that hundreds of iowa state students who have never caucused before, came here, mostly on this side of the room for sanders. they are clearing out. they were counted and they are now leaving. it's all part of the process, but it is one where there were 520 caucus-goers when they were expecting only 300. things are winding down and the process continues elsewhere in the state. neil: all right, pat, i got the question for you. >> quick question, peter, when they counted the initial people, what was the vote, do you know? >> it was more than 2-1 in favor of sanders to clinton. it wasn't quite 3-1, and then there were problems.

the way they have to do it, really, generally the sanders people are over here, the clinton people over here, the o'malley folks in the corner. only 20 something of them. they have to go one at a time the count was off for some reason. there was one too many, 528 instead of 527. wasn't quite 3-1 to sanders to clinton at that point. about 2.5-1, neil. >> let me make a point here, when you see the delegates flip because of the proportionality rule, it's 5-3. he was winning the popular vote 3-1. neil: like a superdelegate situation. >> reporter: neil? i'll tell you what the final count was. clinton 170. sanders 340. with a count of sanders 340, clinton 170. neil: it wasn't apportioned according to the vote.

>> reporter: this is what they got. they came up with this, took out the new microsoft apps, submitted it and it churned back, one of the people from the hillary side showed me on the app, once they typed in the number, it popped lack and said congratulations you just got three delegates, and they were happy with that. neil: he won by a 2-1 margin but got a 5-3 breakdown of the delegates, right? something like that. >> they way disproportionate. he only get 56. neil: fair enough. great reporting. for a lot of you look at home, we could show you live shots of candidates and where they are, and we will if and when it is important. we thought it was important to keep the focus on the numbers. that's why we're showing you the numbers and the latest numbers as they become available. want to see a beauty shot of the candidate looking beautiful? by all means, we will. we owe it to you to keep you apprised of the latest numbers and what's going on with the candidates at the time. i told you at the beginning we're doing things a little

differently here, but because the numbers matter and the -- and the democratic precincts are not jiving with the vote certainly to a t? >> the way the portionality delegates works, the way you get 15%, that's the problem with portionality, it never reflects the victory. neil: i want to follow up with the iowa precinct chair. bob, maybe you can educate me on the process, i'm not saying untoward the motives here, but at least in some of the precinct the vote doesn't jive with the final delegate award, you can explain that? >> well, i'm part of the gop so democrat, i prefer you go to one of those guys for that section. i can give you the gop precinct results if you like? neil: sure. >> cruz was number one with 72

votes. rubio has 56 votes at number two. and trump finished number three with 48 in ankene 3. ankene 2 had 107% increase over last cycle. neil: wait a minute, 170 increase from the number votes last time? >> number of participants. neil: oh, wow. what does that tell you? >> getting people in, it's amazing. but in ankene 2, rubio came in number one with 150 votes. cruz came in number two with 95. trump number three with 70 votes. neil: was that a surprise to you, or how did you look at that? >> yeah, that's a surprise to me. the media seemed to think trump

was going to trump everybody else. neil: that's interesting. thank you very much, my friend. so reading that, and that was my fault thinking he was at a democratic precinct. i apologize for that. what do you make of that, that donald trump in a couple of key precincts didn't run away with it? >> what's happening, you see rubio in the second precinct, the surge seems to be the last surge of this, seems to -- even though the interest poll shows when we're all said and done, a 12-point advantage. in those precincts, rubio was benefiting. >> so when the republicans are doing popular vote first and delegates later, when will final results, when they convene in cleveland later this year, will this represent a portional vote? >> they finally stopped that problem where they have the thing in the election where santorum and romney won? remember that? and ron paul at the county convention -- >> they don't do that. >> they made sure that's not

going to happen. it's embarrassing. neil: flipping to the democratic side, it is not egregiously part from the popular vote, 5-3 but what should have been 6-3, 2-1, if you play that out? >> if it would have been the same portion, it would have been 4-2. there is a loss there because of the way the rule works. when you see how close we are, we're dealing with like 18 delegate difference, and a 51-48 proportion of delegates, that suggests to me that bernie sanders right now is probably winning the state vote. neil: all right, way too early to tell. we can't tell. 42% of the state delegates coming in for the democrats. again, the delegates. hillary clinton has the lead. as pat pointed out that doesn't necessarily reflect the same percentage of the popular vote. it might be close, you add that up in 1600 precincts, a little bit here, a little bit here, it

can add up to be significant. popular vote breakdown because the republicans are a little cleaner, you vote, you crumple up a piece of paper. you give it to the director and microsoft feeds it into a machine. ted cruz is enjoying a slight advantage over donald trump. but we still have three-quarters of the vote out there to come in. and a lot of folks are still waiting. but they are moving through this fairly quickly. so i don't know whether that's windows 10, but it's something microsoft, and they're getting through it. so we'll wait. more after this.

. neil: all right, welcome back, i'm sorry, looking at the numbers here, somewhere not jiving in the democratic race. as you look at donald trump headquarters here, hillary clinton is getting a lead in the delegate portion of it. that's how it's awarded on the democratic side. even though she seems to be trailing in the popular vote. that might seem byzantine and seem a little off a little bit, but right now, in the reflection of the percentage of state delegates, there are about 1471, i believe, she is about 349, bernie sanders, 330. the killer is she's doing that despite slightly trailing in the popular vote. i don't want to make too big a deal out of that.

if this works out precinct by precinct, you can see how exponentially that can work to her advantage. we'll keep you posted on that. also a tight race in the republican side between ted cruz and donald trump. way too early to see whether this represents something significant. i can tell you what is significant that marco rubio has got 20% of the vote, and a strong third place. so a little too early to tell where all this goes to. shannon bream in clive, iowa. >> they were expecting 800 people, two precincts that caucus together here, but they had the seats filled up and still probably 100, 200 people standing up here, scrambling for seats for everybody. lines out the door. this turnout exceeded far what they expected. they just now voted. this area got visits from four presidential contenders. people can come and speak on behalf of the candidates

they're representing. dr. ben carson, senator rubio. former senator rick santorum and donald trump showed up to take the stage themselves. they know in a crowd of hundreds, probably tipping over a thousand here, every vote counts. if you can show up and persuade them in person, it can make the difference. they passed around the blue bucket, something that you take to build sand castles at the beach, everybody dropped in their pieces of paper. they're getting ready to watch the votes be counted on stage. everybody watches. people are confident in the process. people are kind, supportive. very polite to everybody who took the stage speaking on behalf of the candidates. they're excited now. starting to turn up the emotions as they wait to see what happens because this is a big group. it will be a big segment of what gets decided tonight and with so many of the candidates coming into vote, i think it had a special bit of excitement. now that they're working the

crowds here, the little last bit, you know, some of the folks voted and they're not waiting for the turnout, they are ready to go. a long night of speeches. others the diehards say they're going to stay no matter what. we talked to a lot of people right before the candidates started showing up who actually told us they did not know who they were going to vote for. seems to all of us covering this for months now, they would have made a decision, but several want to be here one last time for the candidates or the representatives, but those decisions have been made now. the buckets collected and neil, we will wait as they count them transparently on the stage, and wait to see where the two large precincts come down on a night when as you mention the votes are so close. neil: all right, thank you very much. you know, this is so amazing to me, when you're watching democracy in action, some people in some states, other countries it might look weird, it is neat when you see the parties and how they do things.

the republicans cast secret ballots, they do gather and hand it to precinct captain or someone who's going to collect all of that. microsoft collates all the data. democrats have the affinity groups, reach out to the candidates, if they don't have 15% support, i.e., martin o'malley, the other caucus-goers go for hillary clinton or bernie sanders, they work them over hard to say you want to be with us, you want to be with us, and then they agree and move forward and express that in terms of delegates of portion here. it is byzantine, confusing, whacky to some. it is priceless americana and iconic event that's been around for a long, long time. my buddy pat caddell made it famous in 1976 when a fella named jimmy carter looked to the state to appeal to the farming community and outsider status and couple that into a

good run that ultimately made him president of the united states. connell mcshane is tracking that, of course, a very young and handsome pat caddell. i cannot see this enough. that picture. like an early beatles. very handsome young man. you know what i like about this shot? you're not even looking at the president. like why bother. you're like i gotta go. >> thank you for coming. neil: stick around. >> it's all right, mr. president. i don't mind helping you out. >> got another campaign to run. two big things emerging, connell mcshane on that. >> we conduct the entrance polls where shannon is reporting and other places and two themes emerging. the entrance poll showing more religious republican electorate than the last time around and democratic group that seems more liberal than usual. the republicans first we'll look at the numbers here. how many identify as evangelicals?

62%, white evangelical voters in the state of iowa. that number last time was 56. always quite high. 62 is a big number. how does the vote split out from there? it's interesting, ted cruz does win it, updated figures at 32%. we see relatively strong figures from trump and rubio. 21 and 22%. trump, this is his base, is that enough number to win? i don't know. 32% is the leading figure for cruz. he takes that group. on the democratic side of the equation, talk about being liberal, those who identify being very liberal or somewhat liberal, in the political ideology. now how are the very liberal voters breaking? we're expecting them to go for bernie sanders. that's exactly what's happening. 60, 30, 61, 36 in favor of the senator from vermont. two of many themes, we'll go back to the late deciders in

the next hour to see if we have updated figures there. it's been fun, things are close. >> connell, could you give us a rundown of the nonevangelicals? you are absolutely right. the "des moines register" only expected 47% evangelicals. >> right. >> i think most people heard 62, they would have thought that by god, cruz will win this handily, and it's very tight. what are the nonevangelicals? how are they voteing? >> may have to get back to you. >> that's fine. >> can i ask you a question, pat. the number 32 that we showed for cruz, is that -- how would you characterize that number for him? is that a good enough number? >> low. >> low, is that what you said? . >> the size of the cohort that is 62. that's not what it's hoping for but may be enough. neil: interesting enough.

i say go to the precincts and have you voting. we talked about one where they expected a crowd of 100 and 169 showed up. another where they were expecting 550, 1,000 showed up. another 180, 300 showed up. 127 expected at one. 400 showed up. one district where 600 showed up last go-around, 1200 showed up tonight. i'm not saying this is par for the course of all precincts reporting, but for republicans and democrats alike, the count and the participation is much, much heavier than was billed. who that helps or hurts, what do you make of that? >> it's pretty substantial. a lot of the places have to get ballots and count. they're going slow. right now we're at 50% of the precincts in, and it's -- this race is very tight. rubio has now crossed to 21, which i think is a huge story and cruz is barely holding on at the moment.

neil: all right, it is still early, but the story might be who gets that bronze. the bronze for the republican side for marco rubio, who would put his focus primarily, primarily we should say on new hampshire. he didn't dismiss iowa by any means but showing a surge in the polls and advance in the polls a couple of weeks ago, he did a number of trips to the fine state. way to early to sell -- or tell -- is that a fruedian slip? at least the precincts coming in, in terms of popular vote, being orchestrated more, the drama on the third place finish from right now on the republican side. for marco rubio, it appears early on to be a very, very good night. we'll keep you posted.

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. neil: all right, with about 60% of the vote now in, ted cruz is solidifying his lead here with about 29% of the vote, 25% for donald trump, and look at that, 21% for marco rubio. so the momentum lately has turned slightly strong for ted cruz and slightly stronger for marco rubio. and donald trump is slipping back, way, way, way too early to tell. we don't know where all the

precinct votes are coming in. trump was leading in the polls, cruz lost that lead but these are volatile things that doesn't apply. a family leader who backed of course mr. cruz some time ago, he has anointed many a future iowa winnings including rick santorum four years ago, and mike huckabee four years prior to that. he can be very influential here. if it turns out that ted cruz ends up winning this state, it will owe in no small part to mr. vander plat's efforts. what do you make of what you're seeing thus far? >> very excited. we told everybody we have a great ground game, the ground game is performing. a lot of game to be played. a lot of counties and precincts to come in yet. being up by four points is a good fight for ted cruz.

see if he can sustain that and keep the victory there. we're narrowing the field. by narrowing the field you see cruz and trump and rubio. we'll see how this goes forward. neil: what do you think -- and i don't want to imply this is going to happen. a tight race for second where donald trump and marco rubio are fighting at it. if rubio were to emerge second and trump fall to third, way to early to say, that could be a significant developments, would it not? >> it would be a significant development. as a matter of fact, it's a significant development if donald trump loses. donald trump is on record of telling everybody all he does is win. he wins everywhere he goes. win so much, you're going to be tired of winning. if he doesn't win tonight, a huge blow to the campaign. a big boost to the ted cruz campaign. there's a lot of precincts to come in yet. i like the polls, i liked where the numbers are coming in from that we have our leader ready. neil: you know, bob we talked about the importance of the

evangelical vote, and this was somewhat of a curiosity when you had the likes of jerry falwell, jr., sarah palin endorsing donald trump. some read that as panic sign for ted cruz, maybe with the religious community he was in some trouble. too early to say, as we keep repeating. he appears to pull it out despite the petitions for those who support donald trump, what do you read into that? >> i read into it people are voting for ted cruz over donald trump. they're not voting for jerry falwell or sarah palin or bob vander platts or steve king. they are voting for someone who applies the values not exposing the values. ted cruz is going to shine when you see that happen. when you see that happen tonight, the evangelical vote is going to break his weight tonight. neil: if it does happen, bob, you're a modest guy, but you

are very influential, and that sign of support which is greeted with some chagrin on the part of some iowa winners could come through again. a very influential man. his choice is surviving what has been a blizzard of attacks by donald trump and others questioning everything from the birth of whether he was a natural born american citizen, that is ted cruz, to whether he was trustworthy or likable. appears so far in iowa, ted cruz is likable. he's winning. we'll have more after this. when it comes to small business, she's in the know. so strap yourselves in for action flo! small business edition. oh, no! i'm up to my neck in operating costs! i'll save the day! for plumbers and bakers and scapers of lawn, she's got insurance savvy you can count on. you chipped my birdbath! now you're gonna pay! not so fast! i cover more than just cars and trucks. ♪ action flo did somebody say "insurance"? children: flo!

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neil: all right, we are rocketing through this right now. with 71% of the vote in, in the republican caucuses. ted cruz is hanging on to a four percentage-point lead. about 4,000 more than donald trump who is in a fight for second place with marco rubio suddenly emerged with 21% of the vote. it is virtually 50-50 on the democratic side where they're fighting over delegates. part of the 1400 and some odd delegates in the state. and again a 50-50 game. pat caddell and karl rove with me. on the republican side, you have the possibility of donald trump slipping to third. what do you make of that? >> yeah, i don't think that's likely to happen, but i do think the margin between he and marco rubio is likely to narrow. it's likely to close up among all three. if you look what's out, what's not yet being counted it tends to be in counties where ted cruz is performing below his

current statewide average and marco rubio performing above statewide average and donald trump performing below statewide average, coming in third in a couple of the counties. i wouldn't be surprised to see it tighten up for everybody and wouldn't be surprised to see the total in excess of 170,000, if you take a look at precincts, still we've got a lot of the precincts tend to be the smaller precincts, both in rural counties and the major precincts in the metropolitan counties, they're pointing to more than 170,000 turnout, and i support number will climb as we get the bigger precincts coming in, in the bigger towns. neil: who would benefit in that? >> that's the big question. that's what i want to ask karl. karl, when you see what's out, how much of eastern, the catholic part of iowa, how much of that is in, or behind the, for instance, as well as the

big counties in the south? >> if you take a look at it, dubuque for example only has 15% in. the further south you go along the mississippi river, the more it tends to come in. most of scott is in, most of clinton is in, and some of the counties further south have 100% in. right now the big chunk of votes not yet counted are cedar rapids and dubuque and the des moines area, poke, dallas and story counties, and surprisingly there's a bunch of votes out west in woodbury where donald trump is leading right now. this is a county that ted cruz should, and i suspect, at the end, will win. >> i can run a premise by you, karl? as you look at trying to match the internal stuff we have yet on the entrance polls, seems the evangelical turnout is so much higher. it was 47 estimated in the des moines register.

we're showing 62%, and yet cruz is only winning that by 10. meanwhile the surge of voters doesn't seem to all be voting for trump. he's ahead there. but rubio is taking it, and seems to me a race between those two factors of who may come out on top? is that a surprise to you? >> i think you're right on that. all the new voters which we anticipated would be heavily for trump are instead being split between trump and rubio, and to a lesser extent cruz, and what's interesting is cruz -- excuse me, rubio is getting some of the west iowa evangelicals in the missouri river counties that you anticipate would have been in cruz's camp. so cruz is overperforming his number in the real clear politics average, both he and rubio are outperforming their numbers. the guy who's underperforming in the real clear politics average and the des moines register poll is donald trump. neil:un, the story of the night

for me, marco rubio is strong showing. 22% now. >> 22% now. neil: that's amazing. we can confirm this now, karl, tim scott will formally endorse marco rubio for the presidential nomination, and that, of course ahead of the february 20th primary in south carolina. that could give rubio a big one-up, couldn't it? >> yeah, sometimes the person who gets the most good news out of an election night is not the person who wins but the person who unexpectedly does much better than anticipated. you remember this with bill clinton having survived? neil: right. >> second to paul tsongas, he was the comeback kid and the victor, and tonight the story line is good for marco rubio. but also you have to give credit to ted cruz who fell behind in the polls and through superior organization appears tonight to be eclipsing donald trump. neil: yeah.

thank you very much, the scene right now at rubio headquarters as we're looking at this breakdown. do we have somebody there, ralph, at rubio headquarters? i can show you what's going on. i apologize for that. marco rubio could be the story of the evening, unexpected development. as he stresses, the leader gets a lot of attention, if it turns out ted cruz wins this state that he was getting eclipsed by donald trump in polls that showed donald trump surging and ted cruz falling back and donald trump is fighting with marco rubio for second place. that's how quickly things work. whether it's evangelicals or others, only the lord knows, right? more after this. but i only had a salad. it was a buffalo chicken salad. salad. every year, the amount of data your enterprise uses goes up. smart devices are up.

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or any symptoms of an allergic reaction, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis and a $200 savings card neil: all right we're two hours into this, we're getting word from washington post that martin o'malley is quitting the presidential race. he set to end his presidential quest. if we get more we'll keep you posted. he was garnering about 1% of the vote, where that vote will come in is whether hillary clinton caucussers or bernie sanders caucussers are getting there.

martin o'malley, after a poor showing calls it quits. it will be a hillary clinton and bernie sanders democratic race. now the republican race, three quarters of the way through. looking at 1471 delegates close to accordingly popular vote, the math is not jiving that way, with the republicans it is the popular vote. they come in they caucus, they put a name on a piece of paper . that goes to microsoft, they crunch the data. that is why it is coming in so fast, so far with little difficulty, if the end is gets dicey. but right now we're getting follow-up confirmation on martin o'malley news, he is quitting the presidential race.

>> he never, you know between this race where bernie sanders was the real insurgent, and hillary clinton the more experienced candidate, his argument about i'm a new scwhrenratio generation, that was a gary hart message but that is not the right message this year, he never got traction. >> steve forbes, what do you make of this? >> you will have three candidates going strong to new hampshire, making it difficult for three governors, who were all hoping to make a break through in new hampshire, bush, kasich and christie. they will be overshadowed, what you see is a circular firing squad will get hotter as they take shots to try to break through. with the focus on the big three, the strong showing by rubio. it will be difficult for the

governors to survive in new hampshire, i think poll support in next couple of days will be precarious. neil: you know, i was with marco rubio the other night. at one of his rallies, i asked him how sure are you, that you will not be part of that winnowing process, he said very sure. now looking at these numbers, it is still early. it is possible he could take second place, what do you make of what is going on with marco rubio. >> you are seeing unfolding in iowa is the huge shift of voter sentiment in last 72 hours, it happened before, that is why the polls have to be taken with a grain of salt, in terms of rubio, getting that momentum, after debate, trump did not show up, he has eclipsed the others. if he finished 15% it would have been good but not good enough, this will help clear the field.

you will see also emerge, i think healthcare, where donald trump indicates he wants a big royal for government in health care. i think you see that is a hot issue in new hampshire, as rubio and cruz try to differentiate themselves from the donald and position themselves for south carolina. neil: donald trump, if he tumbles to third. and it is cruz, rubio, and trump, what do you make of that? >> that will do, he will take a hit in new hampshire. if you too poorly in iowa you have to scramble hard to prevent an erosion in new hampshire, how he handles, i think he would say, iowa is state we have to be well organized and in new hampshire you can have independence voting in the primaries, that is true, that is how mccain won in 2000. so, trump will still have a

lead in new hampshire, but he will have to remaining his case to the voters in new hampshire, rubio will come out tonight as the darling, you will see a intend fight win rube ruby and donald trump -- intense fight between rubio and donald trump. neil: you could be right. steve always, thank you very much. >> thank you. neil: you always have to watch. donald trump you could argue, a few weeks ago, ted cruz was leading, this is his base. mine is more new hampshire and southern states that i think have a more broad appeal. no doubt that will be part of the strategy to minimize. if you are donald trump, what is happening here, others breaking down whether missing that debate on the eve of this vote hurt him. it is anyone's guess.

we have cruz fundraiser, with us, jeb bush supporters, and my buddy pat. to you first, you stayed with senator cruz, never left him. done think he was in trouble. saying people of this fine state would stick with him. in particular the evangelical voters, if he pulls this out, what do you think that means. >> i don't' to count my chickens before they hatch, but we're excited. cruz has been itching for an opportunity to show that he is electable. and i think that what he is showing is his base is willing to show up for him. i was in des moines high school tonight in a caucus, it was standing room only, the evangelicals did come out and support him. cruz campaign has worked very hard, we have over 12,000 volunteers, you will see as a

result, if he does win iowa, is that trump is not bulletproof, he is now vulnerable to cruz's annition. neil: he -- ammunition. neil: he has rarely been trailing in polls. for marco rubio, it goes back on him. i mentioned that martin oh, mali was taking -- o'malley was taking himself out of presidential race, in about 20 minutes, i think he will address the supporters. now to jeb bush supporter are going to -- morgan, your guy not having a good night tonight. are you worried? >> i don't think he was trying to get near top 3, but i think that real winner looks like it will be cruz, his team has been confident for a long time, i was talking with their polsters this morning. everyone predicted massive

turn out for iowa caucuses, they said it would be conventional wisdom. actually it turns ut that turn out is for trump, cruz, and rubio. neil: a great point, we think that consensus was heavy turn out benefits donald trump. >> it has not. >> he did do, we can give him credit for that republican voters are paying attention to this race, they are watching this debates. he looks like a big baby because he did not make the debate. >> he had more lose than to gain, he was frontrunner why take a chance. neil: if the numbers hole a hold as they are for lesser players, chris christie, and they have to hope to strike lightning in new hampshire. >> if they don't, i think the real question right now in trump, and those things we're in the sure about, because of

what is out there are a lot of eastern iowa out in big cities. but -- >> who would that benefit? >> probably trump and rubio a little bit. it could be a hair line, it's hard to tell. >> do you know for sure that is where we're not getting it. >> that is what carl was say he watches counties like a hawk. here is the point. cruz is outperforming what polls were saying, he was dropping, he is not. this changes that dynamic, what does this do to people who are hanging in there, they have no place to go, clearing out begins to bridge the race into focus. >> but, punditry class keeps talking about passion for trump. i'm seeing just as much passion against trump in the republican party, this is a big night are in cruz and

rubio. >> i think this is a game changer, this gives cruz an opportunity too have the wind at his back. neil: you are a big backer of senator cruz. he had to absorb a lot of body blows at that debate. how differently do you think this night would be looking if donald trump stayed for that debate? would he have done better or worse, what do you think? >> you know, hindsight is 20/20, but cruz did have a big bullseye on his back, he was defensive the whole time, and he had a shaky start, i have to agree. >> it a crucial factor helping him where he is, he has a huge organization here, it is paying off. it is pulling that up, you can see that because, at least what is being reported is the

evangelical turn out, it is higher than it was in 12. neil: in all of these urban areas and rural areas, is it evenly dispersed? >> i don't think so, my parents are very big evangelicals they would not hold their nose and vote for trump. neil: is that right? >> they -- i think they have more influence than i have. >> trump is running second. here is the point, we have a lot of voters who are not voting normally, they are unhappy, they are outraged. we'll get to this as night goes oin the primaries, those who are more outside are doing the best. >> i would like to see trump get third tonight, i think his head might spinoff and explode. neil: you are just a hater. >> no. neil: it is a fight race. marco rubio adding to his total, getting closer to

second place, it is tight. to my colleague's point. ted henry on worries in camp clinton, ed? >> good to see you, two bits of breaking news, martin o'malley, former maryland governor we have confirmed with his aids, he is -- aides he is suspending his campaign. his supporters are flocking either to clinton or sanders, martin o'malley out, he announce that within 20 minutes, right now i'm looking at my phone, iowa democratic caucus site is 50. 4%, and sanders 49%. this is a tight race, here is why clinton camp is nervous. i am told that counties that

are still out, are more likely to be the ones with a lot of the new voters. they are going with bernie sanders they are young people, college campus, bottom line is, this is already a close race. and as more numbers come in later, they are not but more likely to be sanders voters, there is a tight gap. just a 1.4% difference it could get tighter or sanders could edge ahead. they just opened the doors here at drake university, this is where hillary clinton is planning to give a speech tonight. the crowd is building here. interesting, is he giving a victory speech or say, on to new hampshire, try to launch a comeback. that is what happened when barack obama and john edwards beat her here in iowa. neil: all right. thank you. back to you as can'ts warrant

it? martin o'malley is quitting the race. this kind of sums it up. if you are getting it done a lot of people show up, if not. >> i feel bad for him. >> oh, but for o'malley. take the posters with you on your way out. >> you know, it is sad. >> for whatever it's worth, he really worked hard, he campaigned hard, this has to be just disappointing, but you have to give him credit, he went out there and tried, we don't give enough credie to all of the candidates to who put themselves on the line. neil: but you got to rack up the votes. >> that helps. >> all right. close friend of barack obama.

what doe you talk with when you talk with leader of free world, hey, nice bombing raid, or whatever. here is where peebles stood out, he took aim at fellow democrats saying i don't like where we're going as a party, out of the mainstream, he all but lift the consensus establishment of the party. he has serious reservations about the direct of his party, don, what you see is this battle between hillary clinton and bernie sanders, one thing is clear. that they have prett prelt lefhave -- pretty left views, party is not the same party it was, is it? >> you know we talked about this the other day. there is a fight for soul of the democratic party. instead of hillary clinton carving out a space to the cinder of the parties where a place she could govern and

have a viable chance of an election, she is leaning to the left as well. i think that will create greater problems. because now those people who -- those voters who want someone who super liberal, bordering on socialism they have their candidate with bernie sanders. they are now, leaving a lot of democrats behind, you will see that happening in new hampshire, you will see, i think she will have a tough time in new hampshire. neil: you know, let's say she squeaks it out and does win. her husband went on to win as both carla and pat were saying the come back kid. do you think that his wife can have the same type of comeback? with a bumpy start? with an iowa win but not much of one? >> i don't think a 49-51 is a

victory for her. she was the inevitable candidate, what they were selling, same thing they sold when barack obama won she was inevitable. thaair of invincibility is gone, it takessers an persuade skills. neil: i appreciate you taking time. cutting things short, 97% of the vote now in republican caucus, you look at what we have here. donald trump is in danger, slipping to third place. marco rubio could take silver. and for donald trump it would be a huge disappointment as ted cruz seems, i stress seems 3% is anyone's guess to solidify his number one

position, but donald trump who rarely looked at a bad poll, he is looking at something he did not count opossibly not only losing iowa but maybe, maybe, falling to third, iowa with so many surprises. now other also-rans, what doe they did? chris christie. maybif you are huckabee you look at state you won, 8 years ago, or rick santorum, state you won 4 years ago. and jim gilmore what do you do? after all, they count, right, stick around, continue, cover rack of iowa, as presidential season kicks off, in the meantime we have governor jan brewer, our break is not going away, we're close to getting about 100% of iowa vote, arizona governor brewer, you

have not endorsed anyone, you did like donald trump his message. i am not saying that iowans don't like his message but not as many as earlier thought what do you make of these numbers. >> my goodness it has been a horse race, so exciting to see what has taken place in iowa. i will say that because percentages are so close, you know we have a long way to go on this. but it is exciting tonight. neil: what if donald trump -- we're showing if you can't see them, ted ted leading with 28% of popular vote here. donald trump 24%, and marco rubio 23%. if trump were to slip to third . what do you think? >> i think it would surprise a lot of people, but it goes to

show you, people with the ground game, came through. again, we have a lot more to come to, it will determine as we move through this election where the other candidates either stay in or leave. it's just been an amazing election tonight. a lot of surprises i think. but i think -- >> governor do you think that donald trump skipping the debate hurt him? or not making as many personal meet and greet stops as other candidates. do i think that hurt him? >> i do. i do. i think that it did hurt him, i think that people like that one-on-one contact, and smaller groups. it is always exciting to have huge big crowds but the int mass i you feel that you --

intimacy you feel you can connection with people, it is possible we could see him change his game plan going forward. again, word of these -- where do the other candidates go? and their voters go? neil: where do they go? >> rubio he absolutely is good job well done. he is nipping at their heils. neil: he is the story of the night, we have pica here, a big cruz backer. and morgan a bush backer, and pat who just criticized everyone. >> that is my job. neil: i look at these numbers, i don't think, but going into new hampshire, high has to do better. >> clearly, i think he is in new hampshire tonight, christie is in new hampshire, kasich is in new hampshire tonight. this is clearly the night for cruz.

neil: that was he and christie were fighting over who'll be best performing governor. >> this is the night for cruz and rubio. cruz is the giant player here. going into new hampshire, you have to be you know out of it not to think you have on -- all of the candidates have to have a good showing, i think we're seeing a few people drop out tonight. bush has a national truck infrastructure that kasich and christie don't have. neil: i am thinking of rubio. south carolina is a crucial state on february 20. >> south carolina is, it depends on how much tim scott because, lindsey graham is one with incredible network in south carolina, he is working it aggressively. >> tim scott is a lot more popular than lindse lynn graham by far a among republicans.

>> she is loyal uunlike you, you turn on people. neil: does this change the math for him? after barack obama surprise in 2008, won iowa, i think 12 polls he was favored to win new hampshire he lost new hampshire. >> we want to manage expectations. we're looking for win, place or show, important state for us is south carolina. we have a very good ground game, and we have money to last. neil: a lot of other winners they did not have that wherewithal to keep money. >> we have the most cash of any ro republican candidate on hand in terms of will do' dolezallary donation -- dollar donation. neil: hugh is jeb bush doing? >> rubio, primary cash has

same thing, one thing i am hearing, bush family is still quite well liked in south carolina they are planning on campaigning there for jeb, do you think? >> south carolina, i have always predicted will be a slaughter ground. >> it normally is. >> but, yes, first of all, a lot of republicans party, is established. neil: by the way, i want to interrupt, we can officially project ted cruz won iowa caucuses, donald trump in second -- >> just calm down. neil: rubio third, carson 4, and rand paul fifth, at 99% in you could make a case it is possible, rubeo and trump could switch positions. >> possible. neil: what do you think? >> i think that two -- that margin is a little bit much. >> look at that.

>> 2000. >> it is doable. >> you would have to win everything out to do that, it could be closer. neil: okay. look at that. nice to win, it is not nice to not. this cruz headquarters here in iowa. a different read when it does not go as well. on other side of ledger. martin o'malley, his headquarters here, versus the cruz headquarters. we have that. those -- >> i feel bad, quit showing it. neil: a cruel world. >> we're about 5 minutes away. >> i don't know if they unplugged the microphones,oirk mali has to talk to people. >> somewhere. >> he leaves bernie sanders and hillary clinton to duke it

out in their race. looking at their race. republican side we can say ted cruz has won, on democratic side still close to cool. this is confusing. in democratic side they count delegates. that is why martin o'malley with 7 delegates said i'm hanging it up. patrick you said, as close as vote it is in favors hillary clinton may not narrate what is going on in popular vote. >> that is political too, they can report that, i'm going to find out, when we get a break if that is being reported, for the people of america they want to know who really won. delegates are one thing, and vote are another.

neil: you are ted cruz, what do you bod do with it win? >> i think it would help him in new hampshire, everyone thought he was the gone, real test about new hampshire is trump. he was so far ahead, he has been so far ahead in new hampshire, it is friendly ground to him, whether how he performs tonight when he speaks, this is a big moment, it will have a big impact in new hampshire on what happens to his vote. and does new hampshire do what it has done before, all right iowa you did your thing but we're new hampshire, we're doing something different. but that rubio, you may have those 3 in new hampshire. neil: on night where kingmakers and those who pack it up. mike huckabee is suspending his campaign. following martin o'malley. winner of these caucuses, 8

years ago, when john mccain went to win nomination, that was a surprise to many. mike huckabee could not parlay, money or influence or stature, seems to be hanging up his gloves. he too hanging up his gloves, same night that martin o'malley is gives it a rest. we're seeing this weeding out real-time. >> huckabee will be interesting to me, he has not gotten along with ted cruz at all. where does he go? he is a governor, does he go with bush. neil: he showed up at trump event. >> he admitted hig he got a lot of flack from supporters. i don't see huckabee going to

cruz. the hate is real. >> let me ask this question, let me say, huckabee made clear today that his attack on the money, in politic, democrats and republican, wall street money, specifically mentioned both of your candidates, i'm not sure he won't end up with trump, i'm not surprised by that huckabee did not turn out -- did not do better and neither did carson. >> 9%. >> with a bigger evangelical turn out than was projected. >> carson made a bizarre statement tonight, he said he is going home to florida. he said i'm leaving to go back to florida to get clothes. >> that is bizarre, everyone is going to new hampshire. neil: you have to get your

clothes, how big a bag do you pack. >> very big, multiple suitcase, it takes a lot to look like this. neil: you are hearing this, you know press will be on your guy. if he did not like that center poll position, but i think that one thing that will come through loud and clear, how different this night might have been for donald trump, had he participated in that debate. >> i agree with you. i think he should have, it looks like he cares about the people of iowa, what they had to say. i think this was calculated those, i think he was concerns he had more to lose than gain. it had nothing to do with megyn kelly. neil: all right, a lot of people will be second guessing, headline tomorrow morning will be donald trump did yodoesn't win.

>> how he handles that is now critical. howard dean could have won new hampshire. after the finishing badly but he had a crazy moment, people are wondering, can donald trump be humble. neil: is he going to congratulate. >> that is important. what he is proving his negatives which have been rising at 47, we taked about how much his vote, over performing, he had a topping at 50% of favo favorable. >> all right, we have a lot more that could happen. we've had two casualties this evening, martin o'malley quitting on the democratic side, and mike huckabee suspending on the republican side.

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headquarters in des moines, iowa. marco rubio, this is a huge achievement. coming in third, almost second, he will address the supporters. but with all attention on ted cruz and donald trump. his emergences a. 23% is the real shocker. >> marco rubio addressing right now with his family. >> thank you. >> so. this is the moment they said would never happen. [cheers and applause] for months they told us we had no chance. for months they toil us because we offer too much optimism in a time of anger we had no chance, for months they toil us because we didn't have the right endorsement for political connections we had no chance, they told me we had now chance because my hair was

not gray enough and my boots were too high. they told me i needed to wait my turn. i needed to wait in line. >> -- this is your turn. >> but tonight, tonighter hoo mere in iowa. people of this great state sene very clear message, after 7 years of barack obama year not waiting any longer to take our country back. this is not a time for waiting. for everything that makes the nation great, now hangs in the balance. this is a time where we need a president that will preserve, and protect, and defend the constitution of the united states, not one that undermines, attacks and ignores the constitution of the united states this is a

time for president who will defend our second amendment rights. not a president who under mines them. this is a time for a president that will rebuild the u.s. military because the world i is a safer and better place when the united states is the most powerful military in the world. this is no ordinary election, 2016 is not choice between two political party, 2016 is a referendum on our identity as a nation. and as a people. in america there are only two ways forward for us, we be either be greater than we've been or a great nation in decline. if bernie sanders or hillary clinton get elected -- if they were to win, we will be a great nation in decline. if they win obamacare is

permanent. if they win the unconstitutional executive order from this president are permanent. if they win, our military continues to decline. and if they win, the balance of our supreme court will be control by liberal justices for over a decade or longer. they cannot win. hillary clinton is disqualified from being the president of the united states because she storied classified and sensitive information on her e-mail server because she thinks she is above the law. and hillary clinton, can never be commander in chief. because anyone who lies to the families of people who lost their lives in the service of this country, can never be commander in chief of the united states.

and so tonight, i thank you here in iowa, i thank you. we have taken the first stip, but an important step toward winning this election. if i am our nominee, and i will be our nominee, thanks to what you have done here in this great state, when i am our nominee, we're going to unify the party, and we're going to unify the conservative movement. when i am our nominee we'll grow the conservative movement. we're going to take our message to the people, who are struggling paycheck to paycheck. for students living under burden of student loan, families struggling to raise their children with the right values. we'll take our message to them, when i am our nominee. we'll unite our party, grow our party.

we will defeat, hillary clinton or bernie sanders. or whoever they nominate. i want to thank all powerful and mighty god. for the chance that he has given us to be a r a part of this en differ in iowa -- endeavor here in iowa, it has been a phenomenallic pe experience, i want to thank my wife and my family. i want to congratulate my friend senator ted cruz he worked really hard here in iowa. he earned his victory tonight, i want to thank governor mike huckabee for his service to our country, the state of arkansas, he announced he is suspending his campaign, we have tremendous admiration for

governor huckabee, and we thank him for all he has done. two centuries ago, a extraordinary generation living here, declared their independence from most powerful empire in the world. they do not come from our government. two century history of most extraordinary nation in hist history of man kind, i know that america is special. i was raised by people who came here with nothing. they barely smok barely special english at this time.

when my parents arrived here, they struggled, they were discouraged. but they persevered. less than a death ai decade after arriving with nothing, my father a bartender on miami beach, they owned a home, not a mansion but a safe, stable home in a safe and stable neighborhood, decade later they retire with dignity and security. they left all 4 of their children, with life better than their own. this is the purpose of my parent's life. to give their kids us, the chance to do all things they never could. that is not just my story, that is our story. that is america's story. that is the story of your parents, you know the story. of your parents who sacrifice, and gave up so much. so you could be what they could not. it is story those parents today who do the same

efficient for their children, this is what makes america special, and we now fight to preserve, this is the country i want to live for my children, your children deserve to inherit as well, this is what we must now decide, whether we will remain that kind of country or we'll be the first generation to lose it, this is an important choice. one that i've generation before us has had to make. for america is not a special country by accident. america is a great nation, because i've generation before us did their part, each generation before us sacrificed, they confront their challenges, they embrai embraced their opportunities, each generation has lift the next better off than themselves. now the time has come for us to do the same. now the moment has arrived for this generation of americas to rise up to calling of our he

heritage to take our place do what we must, when i am elected president of this great united states, we will do our part. when i -- [applause] when i am elected president. when we together achieve this victory, we will imbarat immaculatembrace all of the prince pills tha principles that make america great. when our work is done, history am say that we lived in early years this new century. but we remembered who we were.

we rose up to challenge of our time, we confront our problems and solved them. because we did, the american dream did not just survive it reach more people, and changed more lives than ever before. because we did our children and our grandchildren, grew up to be the freest and most prosperous americans that ever lived, we did what needed to be done. the 21st century was better, a new american century . this is the task before us. i thank my lord and savior jesus christ, i am grateful to

you iowa, you believed in me, when others did not think that night would be possible, perhaps you were lost in the daily narrative, some suggested that perhaps it was time to step aside, you believed in he, you walked with us, you made the calls and knocked on doors, you made a huge difference. we're going to be back, i will be back here in october, next year, and september of this yea year. because i said next year, i will be back next year too, but i will be back in october. and september of this year, because when i am our nomny we're going to win iowa, we're going to win this election for this country. [cheers and applause]

so iowa thank you so much, we'll never forget you, we'll see you soon again, and new hampshire we'll see you in the morning! thank you, god bless you. thank you very much. neil: marco rubio. almost i think he won the caucuses, he came in third, he might have a shot. it is what he garnered 23% of the vote that few saw coming, that is better than he was thought to perform, could set up an intriguing battle in new hampshire, peter barnes at trump headquarters, donald trump will have to live with fact after this, he lost. >> he did not come out on top. all right peter. reporter: neil we're expecting trump to come out and speak to his supporters. that according to our campaign

advisor, i was out in lobby, i talked with three first time iowa caucus-goers, i said does trump have to win tonight. two of three said no. one said if he wins tonight he wins everything, but the other two said, he is way bigger than iowa. and his is a campaign will continue in new hampshire, and nationally, he did not is to win here tonight. according to one supporter, according to a third supporter this is a starting point to win, here is donald trump. [cheers and applause] >> it is a unusual position for donald trump to be in. he wins most polls. he was leading in a lot of iowa polls, but it is a hum billing experience for a guy who is used to winning, donald trump. >> thank you.

thank you very much. i love you people. i love you people. thank you. [cheers and applause] >> unbelievable, i have to start by saying i love the people of iowa. unbelievable. unbelievable. so, on june 16, when we started this journey, there were 17 candidates, i was told by inch do not go to iowa, you could never finish even in top 10. i said but i have friends in iowa, i know a lot of people, i think they like my, let's give it a shot, they said don't do it. i said i have to do it. we finished second. i want to tell you something, i am honored, i am really honored, i want to congat late

-- conga congratulate ted, and all of the incredible candidates, including mike huckabee. i want to thank the folks that worked with us, we had a great time, we'll continue to have a great time, we're so happy with the way everything worked out, i have to thank my wife, and laura and eric, and vanessa. and don, they went out, they were doing speeches and don and erica i think you did 6 speeches today, i want to thank my family, they have been amazing and supportive. we had every indication we're going on, we have a poll 28 points ahead, new hampshire we love new hampshire, we love south carolina.

and we're leaving tonight, and tomorrow afternoon wild be in new hampshire. that will be something special. it will be a great week, i think wild be proclaiming victory, i hope. i will say this, i don't know who will win between bernie and hillary, i don't know what is happening with hillary, with other problems, maybe bigger in problems these has in terms of nominations. but we have had so many different indications that polls that we beat her, we beat her esly, we will. >> on to get the republican nomination. and we will go on to easily bite hillary or bernie or whoever the hell they throw up there. iowa. we love you, we thank you. you are special, we will be back, many, many times. i think i might come here and buy a farm. i love it. okay? thank you. thank you everyone. thank you.

thank you very were. >> all right, donald trump, a very gracious, no soar feelings, congratulating ted cruz, he did finish second in a very evangelical state. you really don't think of donald trump with his language and course style sometimes would not sit well in iowa but he did finish second. a good shot, donald trump, did not win this state, but polls showed him leading, whether it was because he missed the fox news debate on the i've of this caucus, people will a lot of people talk about it back and forth. but bottom line is that, he will fight another day, next week. in new hampshire. where the polls show him favor. we have bob with to us the phone. looking at how this all started out.

donald trump is going to are to contend in second place. >> i think a bad night for donald trump. it, the first state that had most access to him gave him a disappointing second, ted cruz has weathered the storm, that is ament in ni i nominee in the making. trump, if is a bad night for cruz awesome night. neil: you know, bob, have you been instrumental the third role of king maker have you played in this state, your support was enough to put rick santorum over the top 4 years okay, mike huckabee prior to that, thousand te now ted cruz.

does ted cruz have the depth of an organization to go further than other iowa republican winners have? >> first of all huckabee and senator uman sudden -- santorum and cruz are great candidates. i think what you will see, like a jeus george w. bush who wins iowa, now cruz, i think it will be game on in new hampshire, south carolina, and primary state. we could not be more excited. he is well positioned in my opinion, as this field narrow, cruz does better. neil: very good news are in marco rubio. >> well he does, i think that iowa did his job, iowa narrows the file, it narrowed the field tonight, cruz with a

win, trump, i think you will see the beginning of the end of trump, then it will be -- >> no, that might be jumping the gun a bit, but we'll see, thank you my friend very much. donald trump, in some polls, up by double digits in new hampshire, but these polls as may smart friend pat reminds me does not mean anything, i want to look before a break where the democratic race stands, it tied. hillary clinton is in danger of losing this state to a socialist. a oil socialist that. bottom line, the woman who was favor to walk away with nomination in danger of losing in iowa, 28 points behind in new hampshire, yikes, more after this. >> that is incredible.

.

. neil: all right, you are watching two simultaneous concession speeches. not just concession speeches, getting out of the race speeches. martin o'malley, the former governor of maryland on the left. the man on the right, mike huckabee low single digits tonight, also quitting the republican race. expect others to follow especially those in the single digits. anyone's guess what happens right now. we're expecting to hear from ted cruz.

got a big ted cruz fund-raiser with us. i'm looking at those numbers for, at democratic side, they're just about as close to even as you can be. your candidate now, he can't be sure if he were the nominee who he'd be facing, right? hillary clinton or bernie sanders. >> no! no, it's too close to tell, and i would take hillary over bernie, i think, because i think bernie is also viewed as the outsider in the democratic party. and it seems to be a year for outsiders and insurgents. neil: morgan is here as well, you know you're a big jeb bush backer, didn't put up great numbers tonight. might in new hampshire. the pressure is on with these guys in the single digits to put up or shut up and soon, right? >> let me say what i love optically about tonight. you have two 70-year-old socialists and two cubans and an african-american and trump in the top four of the

republican party. 51% of iowa caucus-goers were from cuba. neil: who is calling them a socialist? . >> we're mean, we're fox. i am on fox, all right? seriously, 51% of caucus-goers voted for two cubans. i think we have on the republican side, i'm proud of our top four. neil: it's diverse. blake burman, have you news to share with us, what have you got? >> reporter: i was going to say we're here at the sanders headquarters in des moines, and they are clearly anxious, i guess is one way you could describe it. clearly excited for the final stretch here which nobody knows the way this is going to unfold what could be the next couple hours, could be a long night on the democratic side in des moines. they have been erupting at just about every single chance for cheers for bernie sanders just a little while ago on one of

the tv screens they put up the picture with the vote total of bernie sanders on one side and the with other hillary clinton on the other with too close to call, and the place started erupting. there's a couple hundred people behind me, they're chanting bernie sanders, and giving a sports clap behind it. they are happy here, neil. remember, this was a candidate who when he started off in iowa was down 41 point. as we stand here tonight, he is down to hillary clinton 4/10 percentage point. sanders whether it is a win or loss you will hear him declare a victory of some sort, neil? neil: yeah, well, obviously, and he's up by a lot of points in new hampshire. of course, he's a vermont senator. the good name appeal should rub off there. man, oh, man, you are hillary clinton, you're in a world of hurt. mike emanuel at rubio headquarters, what have you got? >> reporter: we heard from

marco rubio a short time ago, he wanted to speak to the crowd here because he had to get onto new hampshire. and rubio was clearly uplifted by the results in iowa, well outperforming the polls which suggested he should be about 15%, and he's right on the heels of second place donald trump, and so the rubio campaign said it was feeling great about it all night. rubio talked about what he would like to do for the country. he says he's going to be the republican nominee. he's going to unite the republican party and groat conservative cause. he was clearly energized by the results here in the hawkeye state but recognizes there is plenty more work to do including getting right to it in new hampshire. aides say they're going to buy more advertising time into new hampshire to make a push there to try to take this strong third place finish, maybe close to second place finish in iowa and propel them forward as they go onto new hampshire and beyond, neil? neil: all right, thank you, buddy.

we are waiting to hear from ted cruz. pat caddell with me here. if you add up on the republican side, the 28% for ted cruz, the 24% for donald trump. two kind of outside the box candidates. >> right. neil: that's about half the votes. >> add ben carson's nine, that gets you over 60%. >> the sentiment is still there. >> and it's in both parties. this is the story of this year. and let me just say this about rubio's speech. rubio as an establishment candidate hasn't been so identified so much. i've been waiting for him, and the speech he gave tonight has great powerful themes. if he begins to take on -- i've got problems with washington, i'm an outsider somewhat, that will help him. otherwise we're going to have a battle right down here between the outsiders and the insider, so, it will be interesting.

right now both states are powerfully insurgent. neil: it is interest fug think about it. bill clinton survived in 1929 as the comeback kid, losing, coming in second place in new hampshire, but the story line was later that he could take a beating and keep on ticking, and he was like the energizer bunny. he did. much could be said of ted cruz, who was really getting pelted left and right, and managed to survive in iowa. there's got to be a pretty impressive wind at his back right now? >> prevailing wind here, needs to double down because trump is going to come back swinging. he doesn't like to lose, and i think -- neil: you think the whole natural-born citizen thing has been put to rest or no? >> it's still a question for the courts, but i think it will turn. neil: you think it's a question for the courts? you think it will still be on people's minds? >> not tonight, not in iowa it's not. neil: what do you think? >> i think that issue -- look, i think trump made the mistake

going so negative. he had the powerful message, the volume of voice, and gave to up to keep hammering people. neil: really about putting a layer of doubt in there, right? >> he keeps pounding it. looked at turnout, just the three people on top. cruz, trump and rubio alone, they already exceed, just the three candidates the turnout for the whole top -- they topped what the turnout was entirely in 12 and 08. neil: morgan, you read something powerful, if you look at the lineup of the top performers of the republicans, you have a diverse crowd there, and that is the one thing that you really can't say about the other side. >> it's a very diverse crowd and i think i mentioned this earlier, what you're seeing tonight it is record turnout and record passion, clearly there's a lot of passion for cruz and rubio. you saw national review, you saw the weekly standard, you

saw what i call the perspective establishment come out against trump, and those guys get a lot of credit it. worked. neil: it did work. we're hearing from ed henry, the democratic officials are apparently sharing there is no automatic recount in a state even as close what's going on in iowa right now in the democratic party. it's a party-run system, not a state-run system, just in case it stays within the .2% range or closer, no recount. what do you make of that, patrick? >> can i be frank. it's the same thing we've seen before that the establishment of the democratic party, nationally and in iowa, all in the tank for hillary. neil: would they maintain the position if she loses? >> you watch how closely they would change it if she loses. i'm telling you, when they say there's no provision, they'll find -- you. >> strike me as a hater. >> i'm not a hater. i'm a realist, this is a stacked deck against bernie sanders.

neil: he really unstacked it tonight. >> and it looks like to me with, what's still out that i still think votewise he's nudging her. neil: by the way, i'm sorry, we will finish up. it is different, why are we getting the low numbers to the democrats versus the republicans? the republicans express raw vote. go to a caucus site, express preference, slip of paper, give it to the precinct captain or whoever is running it, gets handed into microsoft. these are individual votes you are seeing here. now with the case of the democrats, it's really delegate counts, 1400+ delegates that will make their way to the state convention, that's a portion in this case almost evenly, as patrick pointed out as he astutely does. this is not reflecting a slightly more disproportionate edge in the popular vote into bernie sanders' favor. that doesn't necessarily mean it's way, way out of whack but

doesn't reflect the popular vote. if you awarded this on the popular vote breakdown, we're told bernie sanders would have a much more comfortable delegate lead. he does not in this 50-50 breakdown. morgan, no recount is planned for the time being. >> i think if the numbers stay the way they are, it doesn't matter if hillary wins, he lost tonight. neil: he was up by 40 points in the state and now it's a draw. >> no matter what happens i think she lost. her team has a national from forecast. she is leading sanders nationally by double digits. >> if she were to end up losing this state and losing new hampshire, she's 0-2. >> it means she's going to have to now fight it out probably through april. go state by state. neil: in other words, she's not going to be walking into a nomination? >> she's not out of it after she loses iowa and new hampshire. in terms of walking away with a nomination and starting on the general, not going to happen any time soon. neil: what if they get to the convention and nip and tuck

along the way, could you see an argument if the party is getting restless? >> if she slips and other things can happen to her as well. democrats have what the republicans don't, the 20% of the delegates are superdelegates. those are sitting members of the dnc. congressmen, senators and governors. she has all of the endorsements coming out of the senate. most of them in the house and senate. i want to tell you something, do not underestimate this party's willingness to do anything to stop sanders. neil: did they try to stop jimmy carter in the 70s. he had such momentum, right? >> and there were no superdelegates. there were no superdelegates. we had a primary system. neil: you did have party favorites trying to stop the southern governor, right? >> exactly. neil: toying with hubert humphrey. >> humphrey was about to get in and didn't. neil: ted kennedy. >> jimmy carter said i'm sorry

he's not running, i wanted to beat him. carter could be an ass, having a moment. neil: four years later, he would be whipping his ass. they didn't like each other. >> he actually loved humphrey. neil: no, no, more about ted kennedy. >> i think that is an understatement to put it -- neil: a little bit? >> yes. neil: clinton headquarters on the left, bernie sanders headquarters on the right. waiting to hear from both candidates. i'm told we're not going stay up until 2:30 or 3:00, that will allow plenty of time for pat and i to do jell-o shots and have our pajama party. i want you to picture that. the jell-o shots, pajama party, he and pat caddell. i'll leave but that thought. frightening, isn't it? it's getting late. more after this. at old dominion, we see freight...

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. neil: all right, we're already told that the democrats are looking at the strongest performance numbers, the number of people participating since 2008 when barack obama merged on the scene, and more than 260,000 democrats took part in the caucuses. we're now hearing from the republicans that 180,000 showed up to vote today. that is a record turnout for the republicans. >> by a lot.

neil: indeed it does. i'll handle this, okay? >> okay. sorry. [ laughter ] >> what do you think the old record was? >> the old record was 121. neil: 122. >> all right. 122. well, you are just rounding. neil: i am. i love when i can get him, vit info right here. >> i have it all in my head. i have a computer that doesn't work. neil: it's in the prompter i run with it. andy puzder joins us with kfc restaurants, ted cruz performance and in the face of all those attacks, is a noteworthy development and humbling moment for donald trump. what do you think? >> i think the big loser was the appearance of invincibility. we had three candidates who nobody thought could be beaten, jeb bush, donald trump, hillary clinton, and it may be none of them win tonight, hillary clinton is coming the closest and the best she'll do is a close tie and maybe a little bit in first.

cruz is impressive, two winners, cruz and rubio and one loser, donald trump, and we'll see what happens in new hampshire. neil: we're already clearing the deck. you look at martin o'malley quitting the presidential race for the democratic side, mike huckabee on the republican side. the other performers whether it's rick santorum, you know, might rethink, gilmore former virginia governor might rethink, what do you think? >> i think couple candidates will drop out. more after new hampshire. i tell you the republican race is extremely exciting, diverse and powerful candidates. the democrats are in disarray, hillary clinton who should have won this thing is basically tying a socialist and with her background and record, that's got to be embarrassing. neil: all right. thank you very much, my friend andy puzder.

the man of the hour, ted cruz, he had been leading in polls in this state a few weeks ago. he was on top of the world and then we first noticed it at the fox business debate when donald trump started going after whether he was a natural born sdpz they followed up with relentless attacks of donald trump dropping out of the fox news debate he was in the center poll position and he weathered it all. whether it was ground game or resilience, the ads which were anywhere and everywhere and he was nonstop with the ground game that marco rubio acknowledged was impressive to watch from afar. now ted cruz lives to fight another day and do something that very few people have been able to do. make donald trump have to sit back and not be the winner. for one night, donald trump has to settle with second, and ted cruz is the man of the hour. now the question is from here where, does he go? other iowa winners didn't have

the depth, the organization, the staff or the ground game to take it much beyond that, but ted cruz says things are a little different and that he has a pretty good structure in place to perform very, very strongly in south carolina and the sec states, big themes just a couple of weeks from now. texas is among those states. he is a texas senator, gets a big chunk of the delegates, delegatewise this senator could be scoring impressive gains that could put him well on the way to doing better than prior iowa winners. so pat caddell, ahead of him, what do you expect him to do. >> i expect him to campaign hard in new hampshire, but his real battleground and he's been saying this is south carolina. neil: yeah. >> and i suspect he will move on. neil: marco rubio, that's his battleground, too. >> and it will be trumps as well. if i were ted cruz, i think i would start moving more to

south carolina. i don't think new hampshire is really hit today. neil: i have a feeling after this speech ehe's going to be a puff of smoke and onto new hampshire. ted cruz, winner of the iowa caucuses in des moines. >> god bless the great state of iowa! [cheers] >> let me first of all say to god be the glory. [cheers] >> tonight is a victory for the grassroots. [cheers] tonight is a victory for courageous conservatives across iowa and all across this great nation. [cheers]

>> tonight, the state of iowa has spoken. [cheers] >> iowa has sent notice that the republican nominee and the next president of the united states will not be chosen by the media. [cheers] >> will not be chosen by the washington establishment. [cheers] >> will not be chosen by the lobbyists. [cheers] >> but will be chosen by the most incredible, powerful force where all sovereignty resides

in our nation, by we, the people, the american people. [cheers and applause] >> tonight, thanks to the incredible hard work of everyone gathered here, of courageous conservatives across this state, we together earned the votes of 48,608 iowans. [cheers and applause] >> to put it in perspective, your incredible victory that you have won tonight. that is the most votes ever cast for any republican primary winner. [cheers and applause]

[chanting] >> tonight is a victory for millions of americans who have shouldered the burden of seven years of washington deals run amok. tonight is a victory for every american who's watched in dismay as career politicians in washington, in both parties, refuse to listen and too often fail to keep their commitments to the people. tonight is a victory for every american who understands that after we survive eight long years of the obama presidency, that no one personality can right the wrongs done by washington. [applause] >> the millions who understand that it is a commitment to the constitution, to our shared insistence that we rise and return to a higher standard the very standard that gave birth

to the greatest nation that the world has ever known. [cheers] >> to the revolutionary understanding that all men, and all women, are created equal. [cheering and applause] . >> that our rights do not come from the democratic party or the republican party or even from the tea party. our rights come from our creator. [cheering and applause] >> and the federal government's role, the federal government's responsibility is to defend those fundamental rights, to defend us, and while americans continue to suffer, under a president who has set an agenda causing millions to hurt across

this country, i want to remind you of the promise of scripture. weeping may endure for a night, but joy cometh in the morning. [cheers and applause] >> tonight, iowa has proclaimed to the world morning is coming. morning is coming. [cheers and applause] >> from day one this campaign has been a movement, for millions of americans across this country to organize, to rally, to come together, whatever washington says, they cannot keep the people down. and tonight is a testament to the people's commitments, to

their yearnings to get back to our core commitments, free market principles, constitutional liberties and the judeo-christian values that built this great nation. [cheers and applause] >> when the washington lobbyists settled on other candidates in this race, when the media in one voice said a conservative cannot win, nationwide, over 800,000 contributions poured into ted cruz.org as courageous conservatives said yes, we can! [cheering and applause] >> 800,000 contributions at ted cruz.org with an average contribution of $67. that is the power of the

grassroots. [cheers and applause] >> but it's more than that. it's 12,000 volunteers here in the state of iowa. [cheers and applause] >> it's over 200,000 volunteers all across this great nation. [cheers and applause] . neil: you're looking at the other side here, hillary clinton ready to address the troops here. we should stress as ted cruz is making his victorious remarks here, hillary clinton is slightly ahead with 95% of the state delegates. in democrats counting things differently in iowa. 1471 delegates for grabs, she has 667 of them. bernie sanders has 656.

even if she's edging to win, this is a state she led by 40 points in a little more than a few months ago, a victory when you go through the mainstream media news sites a surprisingly close victory if she gets it and up against a real wall in new hampshire where, she presently trails by some 28 points. hillary clinton, with her husband in the background, and her daughter chelsea, trying to make the best of it, and victory that appears to be hers by the tiniest of margins. hillary clinton. >> thank you. thank you all so much. wow! what a night! an unbelievable night. what a great campaign. this has been an incredible honor to campaign across iowa with so many of you. to make the case for the kind of future we want.

for the democratic party and for the united states of america! [cheers and applause] >> there is so much at stake in this election, i don't need to tell you. every single one of you who came out for me, who worked so many hours from my young organizers with energy and passion. [cheers and applause] >> to the families and friends across this state. i am deeply grateful. >> we love you! >> and i love you. [cheers and applause] >> here's what i want you to know, it is rare, it is rare that we have the opportunity we do now to have a real contest of ideas. to really think hard about what the democratic party stands

for, and what we want the future of our country to look like if we do our part to build it. i am a progressive who gets things done for people. [cheers and applause] >> i am honored to stand in the long line of american reformers who make up our minds that the status quo is not good enough, that standing still is not an option, and that brings people together to find ways forward that will improve the lives of americans. i look back over the years of my involvement from that very first job i had at children's defense fund. [applause] >> and i know what we're capable of doing. i know we can create more good paying jobs and raise incomes for hard working americans again.

i know we can finish the job of universal health care coverage for every single man, woman and child! [cheers and applause] >> i know we can combat climate change and be the clean energy superpower of the 21st century! [cheers and applause] >> i know we can make our education system work for every one of our children, especially those who come with disadvantages. [cheers and applause] >> i know we can make college affordable and get student debt off the backs of young people! [cheers and applause] >> and i know we can protect our rights. womens rights. gay rights. voting rights. immigrant rights. workers rights. [cheers and applause] >> i know too we can stand up to the gun lobby and get commonsense gun safety

measures! [cheers and applause] >> and how do we do that? we do that, we do that by securing the nomination, and then we do it by winning and going into that white house as others before have. determined to push forward on the great goals and values that unite us as americans. i congratulate. i congratulate my esteemed friends and opponents. i wish governor o'malley the very best, he's a great public servant who has served maryland and our country. [cheers and applause] >> and i am excited about really getting into the debate with senator sanders, about the best way forward to fight for us and america! [cheers and applause] >> in the last few weeks, in

the last few weeks, we finally began to have what i think is one of the most important substantive conversations that the democratic party could have, and i am thrilled at all of the people who are playing a part in that. i know that we may have differences in opinion, about how best to achieve our goals. but i believe we have a very clear idea that the democratic party and this campaign stands for what is best in america, and we have to be united. [cheers and applause] >> when it is all said and done, we have to be united against a republicanrition and candidates who would drive us apart and divide us. that is not who we are, my friends.

i follow their campaign very closely. i understand what they're appealing to, and i intend to stand against it. [cheers and applause] >> i will not -- i will not let their divisiveness, their efforts to rip away the progress that we've made be successful because we can't afford. that so as i stand here tonight, breathing a big sigh of relief, thank you, iowa! [cheers and applause] >> i want you to know i will keep doing what i have done my entire life, i will keep standing up for you, i will keep fighting for you, i will always work to achieve the america that i believe in, where the promise of that dream that we hold out to our children and our grandchildren never fades, but inspires

generations to come. join me! let's go win the nomination! thank you all. and god bless you! [cheers and applause] . neil: all right, hillary clinton -- i don't believe she declared victory. i don't believe she saw herself as the winner or bernie sanders as a loser. she made reference to martin o'malley who quit the race, i believe. that made her take advantage of the primetime audience before the lights go out. we're not comfortable declaring a winner that race, too close to call. that alone should tell you something about the nature of what has happened to hillary clinton, that she is in the fight of her life in a state she was expecting to win easily a little more than a few weeks ago and swum a few months ago, if she won at all, it will be the thinnest of margins. doesn't connell mcshane know it

how close the race is? >> we started to look at the why and why it's so close. hillary clinton, we talked about this earlier in the night, doing well in our interest poll data among women, doing well on the traditional issues, the economy, health care and terrorism. bernie sanders is doing well among first-time voters, many young voters. many of the things we expected going. in look at this question that we asked of the caucus-goers on way in tonight. which are the qualities mattered most is what we wanted to know. it's very close, whether you want someone honest and trustworthy, the right experience, whether you want someone who quote, unquote cares about people like me or want to win. it's very, very close, not when you break it down further and look at the individual issues. top candidate quality that can win in november, that's a huge clinton issue, 77-17 over sanders. she kills it there, and then on the other side of it, where is bernie sanders? well, what about the top candidate.

someone who cares about people like me, sanders, 74-22. he is the type of candidate from the people we're speaking, to if you look at personal qualities and cares about the issues that i care about, that's bernie sanders, where the traditional democratic voters who are going in and saying who could beat the republicans in a head-to-head race, they're going for hillary clinton. if you put it altogether, it's so close, those people are split up in their points of view, 50-50. neil: connell, thank you very much. we are getting a statement out of the rnc now on the iowa caucus results quoting here, tonight was nothing short of unmitigated disaster for hillary clinton and the democratic party. the democratic establishment wanted a coronation for clinton but facing the real self-proclaimed socialist could be the pare's nominee. that's what you hear out of them. we're waiting to hear from bernie sanders and supporters

who at the worst have driven this to a tie in iowa. laughing at hillary clinton in the latest polls. we're waiting to hear from bernie sanders. back with cruz fund-raiser, and a jeb bush supporter, morgan and pat caddell. we're not going to be able to call the democratic race even with 95% or 96% of the state delegates in. that should tell you something about even if she squeaks out a victory -- >> this is so close. on characteristics, the other two she wins experience big, he wins honest and trustworthy. let me tell you one thing, a caucus of people party, the most partisan in the party, when you get to primaries, the qualities of honest and trustworthy and the quality of that bernie handed the other one he was winning big on cares about me are most important.

i've been through the counties. and boy, it just depends what's out. there is big counties for her, a couple for -- a couple for her, a lot of -- several for bernie sanders and the small counties, she's predominantly but not much. it's literally going to be like this. no matter how you slice, it she's a loser. neil: it is very, very close, morgan, you're looking at this and republicans are seizing on on this thing as a disaster for her, but obviously she wants to squeak out a win, no matter how close it. is this is not a victory statement, looking at the berp -- bernie sanders headquarters, they are well poised going into new hampshire. >> i was speaking someone close to the clintons and said tell me what you expect to happen in the race? they said of course we're going to have someone to the left that's going to challenge us that's going to try and make it

a serious race but never expected it was going to be like this in iowa and certainly not in new hampshire. this such more serious than the clinton campaign ever expected, and i think it speaks to the fact that hillary clinton just has a problem sealing the deal nationally. and this is among democrats. this is the second time in a row she's going to go into the early states, the oddson favorite and blown the lead twice now. >> i continuing sounds that bernie sanders is entering the auditorium, news shocker there, they watch msnbc, on the monitors, we are waiting to hear from bernie sanders, it's a big night for him, isn't it? >> it is a big night. again a big night for insurgents. she has problems with the e-mails and trustworthy factor. it's going to be kind of interesting to see how this shakes out. neil: what does this mean, as we're looking at this, to see

delegates now at 93%. >> it was 95%. it may be how they're estimating vote versus precincts in. neil: okay, but bottom line, it's difficult to call as close as it is, we're looking at delegates, not raw vote. it's a sign that way. why is this goofy? why do they do it like this? >> this is going to end, the republican party in the future has been worried that too much evangelistic candidates win in iowa, not a real test of someone who wins nationally. neil: blake burman is at sanders headquarters in the middle of the noise. at the short end of what is a very, very almost even stick here. they are not acting that way. what are you hearing there? >> reporter: they're starting to pay what could be a little program to be the warm-up for bernie sanders to come out.

we haven't gotten heads up as to when he will be speaking. we anticipate it to be soon considering hillary clinton has done just that. neil, a couple things to point out here, i can't help to think being back in this state four years ago and playing out similarly to what happened with mitt romney and rick santorum as right now with 7% of the precincts still out there and this being a .2% difference. in that case on election night, deep into the night, and mitt romney was declared the winner, fast-forward a couple weeks later and turned out that rick santorum ended up winning and did so by 34 votes. i bring that up because in this case on the democratic side, there will not be a recount of any kind. this is a caucus in which people do not vote by name or ballot box, they vote by standing in one side of the room and then there is a process that plays on from there on out. so who might be the quote, unquote winner?

there will be a winner, and then there will be the expectations and perceptions from all of this which you have been hitting on, but it is certainly similar to what we saw on the republican side in 2012, the circumstances, though, a whole lot different as you had an inevitable candidate in hillary clinton who was up 41 points by the time bernie sanders got into the race, and as i look at my computer screen, it's .2. back to you. neil: and by the way, fox declared -- sometimes i don't take anything away from any of us here, but we declared that it's too close to call. go ahead. >> i wanted to ask a question which is this, with the crowd there and all, the democrats do, and let's make sure the audience understands this. they are reporting the actual number of votes in the precincts for each candidate at the end of the process as well as the delegates.

democratic party is choosing apparently only to release the delegate numbers. they're tight on both ends. but they have the capacity to at least revote, recount, the overall votes in terms of a recount. so just for the record. if they wanted to. neil: well, i don't understand what you said. >> i don't know if i am either. the answer is, darnit we should have a recount. neil: blake, according to what you're saying, you can't. it's next to impossible to do that. i don't know if that's by design. >> reporter: yeah, there's no recount process, and the recount, keep in mind, is controlled in many cases by the state. in whatever big statewide or national race, it's done by the secretary of state or some law or state rule that mandates a recount within an x-amount person, .5%.

the caucuses are run by the party, so it's not like there is something in iowa law that mandates a recount, one, that would force it to happen, and then two, as your guest pointed out, they go by their whole statewide delegate reporting system, so it's not like there is a way to get everybody to stand in the gym and do it, that would be the only way to do it, by the way. the democrats. >> they could recount, recheck every precinct result where they have totalled to make sure there are no transcription errors. that is possible, because as i said, i'm looking at the county data, they are reporting the actual vote totals. neil: you know, pat, this was a concern of bernie sanders that microsoft would be crunching the numbers. nothing untoward to microsoft, they took out of it that microsoft executives are giving money to the hillary clinton

campaign and sanders campaign is saying wait a minute -- >> exactly. we will see. but i think this is going to hurt both parties, by the way. eventually, about iowa. neil: the republicans are more transparent. they get the rap for being secretive, they were very open. >> you can't defend a caucus, what is an essentially a semi primary and treat it like we don't have to have real votes. neil: very good point. one thing no matter what happens and we're not going to be able to get a final winner, wait until we hear from bernie sanders, by the way. for hillary clinton, she fought to a draw. former first lady, husband bill clinton, party rock stars, dominating the figures, losing to a guy who is 70+ years old and presumably a socialist.

not good. >> if she waited much longer, it may have had to have been a concession speech. >> getting recalculation right now and it's straight even. neil: we're jumping around and not playing favorites. this is going on, ted cruz is still speaking right now, but we want to focus on all the stuff happening early. we're trying to be as fair this as we possibly can. bernie sanders, the man of the moment. what he's done in the democratic party is probably just as significant if not more so than what ted cruz is doing on the republican party. this guy, this 70+-year-old socialist is very close to leading the democratic contest. with an expected new hampshire win, very well could be. bernard sanders right now. >> bernie! bernie! bernie! bernie! bernie! bernie! bernie! bernie! [cheers]

>> thank you! iowa, thank you! [cheers and applause] >> nine months ago we came to this beautiful state. we had no political organization. we had no money, we had no name recognition, and we were taking on the most colorful powerful political organization in the united states of america. [cheers and applause]

>> and tonight while the results are still not known, it looks like we are in a virtual tie. [cheers and applause] >> bernie! bernie! bernie! bernie! bernie! bernie! bernie! >> and while the results are still not complete, it looks like we'll have about half of the iowa delegates. [cheers and applause]

>> i want to take this opportunity to congratulate secretary clinton. yep. [cheers and applause] >> and her organization for waging a very vigorous campaign, and i want to thank governor o'malley. [cheers and applause] >> it's never easy to lose. i've lost more than one campaign, but he should know. he should know that he contributed a whole lot to the dialogue; that he ran an issue oriented campaign and won the respect of the american people. [cheers and applause] >> as i think about what happened tonight, i think the

people of iowa have sent a very profound message to the political establishment, to the economic establishment, and by the way, to the media establishment. [cheers and applause] >> and that is given the enormous crises facing our country, it is just too late for establishment politics and establishment economics. [cheers and applause] >> what the american people have said -- and by the way, i hear this not just from progressives, i hear it from conservatives, i hear it from moderates. and that is we can no longer

continue to have a corrupt campaign finance system. [cheers and applause] >> i am the former chairman of the senate veterans committee, and in that capacity, not only have i worked hard to try and protect the interest of our veterans. i've had the privilege of meeting so many men and women who put their lives on the line to defend us and protect our way of life, and what they were protecting is an american democracy of one person, one vote. not billionaires! [cheers and applause] >> i am overwhelmed and i am moved by the fact that millions of people throughout this country have helped volunteer

in our campaign; that we have received in this campaign 3.5 million individual contributions. [cheers and applause] >> people who went to bernie sanders.com, and you know what the average contribution was? it was $27! [cheers and applause] >> we do not represent the interests of the billionaire class, wall street, or corporate america. we don't want their money, and i am very proud to tell you that we are the only candidate on the democratic side without a super pac! [cheers and applause]

>> and the reason that we have done so well here in iowa, the reason i believe we're going to do so well in new hampshire and in the other states that follow. the reason is the american people are saying no to a rigged economy! [cheers and applause] >> they no longer want to see an economy in which the average american works longer hours for low wages, while almost all new income and wealth is going to the top 1%. [cheers and applause] >> what the american people understand is this country was based and is based on fairness, on fairness.

it is not fair when the top 1/10 of 1% today owns almost as much wealth as the bottom 90%. it is not fair when the 20 wealthiest people in this country own more wealth than the bottom half of america. [cheers and applause] >> so are you guys ready for a radical idea? >> yeah! [cheers] >> well, so is america, and that radical idea is we are going to create an economy that works for working families, not just the billionaire class. [cheers and applause] >> and, yes, when millions of our people are working for

starvation wages, we are going to raise the minimum wage to 15 bucks an hour. [cheers and applause] >> and, yes, we are going to have pay equity for women. [cheers and applause] >> now i've been all over this beautiful state of iowa. we have spoken to some 70,000 people, and in meeting after meeting, i hear people standing up and they say, bernie, i went to college, i graduated college. now i am 60, 80, $90,000 in debt. that is crazy. that is crazy. people should not be punished financially because they want to get a decent education. [cheers and applause] . neil: you are watching bernie sanders, he was very

straightforward about it, but he did congratulate martin omaly, the race is too close to call. hillary clinton did not. he said people should be happy about this performance, and clearly they are. he has taken the power broker of the democratic party and drawn even with her. it is simply too close to call, and we're not going to be able to call them tonight. when we look at this, pat caddell, for bernie sanders, to draw this even in iowa, a state he trailed by 40+ points going into new hampshire where he leads by double digits, i should say, he's the one with the momentum? >> yes, he's the one with the momentum. no matter how this comes out. remember, he's not just running against her, she has 38 democratic senators out of the 40 some, she has many, many more house members. he means the entire establishment. similarities of what cruz said, some what we heard from trump and sanders.

this is a night of the outsiders, and they have -- and they are shaking this thing up. we're going to deal with maximum chaos. neil: i don't think it was by accident, blake burman, if you are with me there, he did quickly choose to acknowledge and thank martin o'malley. hillary clinton missed that opportunity. that could be an important acknowledgment if he's looking to woo those, i know relatively few supporters. in a tight race, they could make a big difference, couldn't they? >> reporter: with martin o'malley dropping out, we have anecdotal evidence that a lot of those o'malley supporters ended up during the caucus where he was deemed not viable ended up going to the sanders side of the room tonight. it was interesting, neil that sanders tried to make the pitch just a moment ago they are in a virtual tie because last night when we attended his event down the road in des moines, sanders was trying to prep his supporters for saying hey, if we come up a couple percentage

points short, it will be one, two, three delegates short, now he can't make the case. >> it's a really good point. >> reporter: i just want to say one other thing. >> yeah. one thing for the audience as you saw hillary clinton, bernie sanders, whose crowd do you think won tonight. neil: that was the more enthusiastic crowd. the iowa caucuses are in the history books, the kickoff to the race is not exactly as the race was envisioned a little more than a few months ago when it was hillary clinton in a walk. now a stumbling walk and donald trump looked to be invincible. he was humbled tonight, a rare experience for donald trump. ted cruz is alive and well and still fighting and all of a sudden marco rubio is in the mix and battling it out for second place. it isn't such a done deal. the race is reconfigured in

ways we didn't think possible. iowa has done what it so often does, make idiots out of pundits. not us, mind you. >> and some pollsters. neil: we got it right. >> we're always right. neil: that's the way we roll. and we're back at it in new hampshire. that will do it. on animal rights, and it was unbelievable. >> one dog he rescues is off-the-charts dangerous. >> if it's a scale from 1 to 10, columbo's a 12. >> when the hollywood owner dies, columbo becomes their strange -- and expensive -- inheritance. >> acupuncture for a dog? i know we're in los angeles, but really? [ dog growls ] >> is it all worth it? >> your kids could get hurt. you're willing to take the risk. >> we made a commitment to healing dogs and showing other families how to do it. >> welcome to the weird world of pet inheritance. >> so, are you leaving your home to the birds? [ bird squawks ]