security because the backlash is going to be fierce. i'm talking about you watch, if they keep fighting this, potential legislation. maria: we'll see. anastasia, dagen, lenore, thanks for joining us. i will see you tomorrow, same time, same place. "varney & company" begins now. stuart over to you. stuart: thank you, maria. is the earth moving? is this a big tilt left? good morning. how about this? a "quinnepiac poll" in head-to-head matchup shows bernie sanders, a socialist, beating every single republican candidate. wait. there's more. that same poll shows every single republican, except donald trump, beating hillary clinton. what do you make of that? all right. i got another poll. this one may be an outlyer. it shows donald trump second to ted cruz. i think we can say, the political earth has at least shifted? how about your 401(k)? got a shift there. solid rebound in progress. the dow up nearly 800 point since friday and it will open

just a little higher again today. you got to say it. it's silicon valley versus the fbi. google joins apple. don't unlock the terrorist iphone. both of them saying it now. president obama will visit cuba next month. he will not attend justice scalia's funeral tomorrow. he will meet black lives leadership today. that is the schedule. "varney & company" is about to begin. stuart: all right. we're on a roll. how are we going to open up today? up about 50, 60 points maybe. tell you again we're up, what, almost 800 points since friday. not seen a rise like that i don't know how many months or years. who cares. it is a nice roll and we're on it and we'll open up today. how about oil? stocks really depend on upside move again in oil. we have it up a buck.

remember iran has said it will support the production freeze. we'll see if it actually does. at the moment the market believes it. 31 bucks on oil this morning. this may be a stock of the day, walmart. it will be down what, about 4% roughly? what is the story behind that one? >> walmart putting out pretty weak numbers in the last quarter, stu. cutting sales outlook for rest of the year which is what the stock is reacting to. core seals growth is down. spent money trying to get customers back in. restocking shelves, higher wages another big issue is hurting bottom line. they have been hurt $12 billion in the strong dollar issue alone. put all that together they spent a lot of money to get more people back in the stores. sales growth was up .6%. estimates were 1%. overall pretty weak outlook and weak earnings report last quarter. stuart: walmart indicates slowing future sales that doesn't look good for overall

economy. >> that doesn't look good. they have been closing a lot of stores too. stuart: they have. you're right. let's get to politics. a huge roll at "varney & company." quinnipiac national poll, voters back bernie sanders over all republican candidates. that is head-to-head match up, presidential matchup. head-to-head, bernie beats the lot. i can't believe it. >> fascinating stuff. okay, running down the list, sanders beats trump 84-42%. beats cruise, 49 to 39%. even bigger margin. beats 47% to 41. going a bit ahead. i'm excited by, bernie sanders beating bush 49-39. tightest race ironically sanders over kasich, 45-41%. bottom line, bernie wins every matchup bense the gop, no matter who. stuart: look who is sitting here. trying to keep quiet. i know you are.

>> you know, stuart. stuart: incredible. united states of america. >> i opened this poll this morning, stuart, i was as shocked as anybody. say what? stuart: were you happy to see it? >> i wasn't, happy in this way. happy in the sense that now bernie has a very strong argument when he is on the stump for democratic nomination i'm actually now the most electable candidate. stuart: are you bernie sanders lady? >> i'm not hillary clinton. so -- stuart: could you seriously support a socialist? >> no i couldn't but i would rather see him be nominee for democrats than hillary clinton certainly. stuart: listen to this for a second. in the same poll, the "qunnipiac university poll," all of the republicans except for, except for donald trump, all republicans except trump beat hillary clinton. >> yes. this is opportunity, stuart. this is effort -- stuart: for what? >> for the republican party to look how incredibly vulnerable hillary clinton is, go for some

of that base, go for some of that quote, unquote traditional democratic electorate. women, young people, people of color. stuart: it is terrible news for hillary, isn't it? >> awful news. i'm so sad about it. [laughter]. stuart: you really want joe biden to run. i know you do. >> i did because -- stuart: you want him to now. >> it makes it more interesting. it gives american people more choice. stuart: here is the problem i have. the rigging of system. >> it opened up for her and backfiring. stuart: superdelegates, lose new hampshire by 202 points and end up with more delegates for national con very. convention. keep that smile going. a slight edge, wait for it, this is moving. a slight edge for ted cruz in the latest nbc "wall street journal" poll.

as we said now, that may be an outlyer. i've got reuters and cbs polls which still show on national basis donald trump is still way out front. do you have any comment on that one eboni williams? >> i think that is outlyer. before the show we can't remember when trump was coming in second place. that is how long ago it has been. i would expect with we see the fox poll come out later -- >> exactly. we're waiting for that one. stuart: reuters poll put trump 20 points ahead. "cbs poll" put him 17 points ahead. "wall street journal/nbc" poll put cruz two points. that sounds like outlyer. ebony, 10:00 eastern time we have new "fox news poll." it is for republicans in south carolina. don't miss that. that is a real good pointer for what happens in the primary. next case, silicon valley, uniting against the fbi's order for apple to unlock the san bernardino shooter's

iphone. google joined apple, is that right? >> it has. chiming in and he should because let's face it, google oversees the android system. he is a crucial player in all of this. he sent out some tweets in the wake of what tim cook ceo of apple saying not wanting to help the fbi essentially break encryption security on the iphone. he says forcing companies, this is the head of google, forcing companies to enable hacking could compromise user's privacy. we build secure products to keep your information safe. we give law enforcement access to data based on valid legal orders but he goes on that is wholly different from requiring companies to enable hacking of customer devices and data. it could be a trouble precedent he says. in other words look, he says we have cooperated with the fbi. in this case it is taking it one step too far. stuart: think in the court of public apple and google are

losing. in the court of public opinion i think what i've read and seen, comes down on side of safety and security as opposed to privacy. >> this is phone who belonged to someone who opened fire and killed 14 people in san bernardino. stuart: obey the law. it is court order. almost dropped, open up the phone. don't forget about oil, very important to the whole marketplace. it is up again this morning up a buck. come on in. oil driller chris faulkner. all right, chris, you think you're out of the woods with oil bouncing above $30 a barrel? >> no, i don't think we're out of the woods yet, stuart. getting oil prices moving up, maybes you happen, makes the country happy, more if you look at this like building a floor than putting supply off-line. they're not agreeing to cut supply. they're agreeing to freeze additional production. carefully, talking about january numbers.

russia at post soviet high 10.9 million barrels a day. saudi at 10.2. what do they agree to freeze at maximum production numbers? that is where they're at. saudi already maxed out. they have thrown us a bone here. the iran will be the lynchpin will they agree? opec cheats. we know that they have a history of cheating. will they even agree to follow what they say they're going to do. that is yet to be seen. stuart: oil at $31 a barrel. if you're drilling, can you make money at $31 a barrel? >> it is all over the map right now. most break even points now are going to be above $30. so we're very, very marginal at that kind of number. the permian basin we can still drill and make money. incrow mental cost, bringing oil out of a well already producing is surpass that. that is why wells are not shut in wholeheartedly we can still

bring if in new oil out of the ground if well is in production. drilling new well it, will be harder to go to the banks to get cap-ex expenditures to put a new hole in the ground. we're hoping this this is a start of the a conversation. if non-opec and opec members agree to do this is historical. that hasn't happened in 15 years. can we bring supply off-line? can production come down? that is what will have to happen or demand will have to go up. a freeze will not get it done. it may create a floor but we'll not get oil back in the 40s. stuart: chris faulkner, bright link energy. thanks for joining us. >> thanks, stuart. bye-bye. stuart: look at this. we go out of the block, will you look at that! video of the sun released by nasa. it's a time-lapse video. so you can see a whole year's worth of movement. as you can see it shows solar explosions and all kinds ever changes throughout the last 12 months t was released to

celebrate nasa's six-year anniversary of solar dynamic observatory. that observatory is in space. you're looking at video shot from space of the sun. that is better than usual dramatic stuff of crashes and hurricanes we bring you. >> quite hypnotic, really. stuart: let's get it off. drop that thing. former gitmo detainee, poster boy for al qaeda. he is in latest recruitment video. the obama administration said he was no longer a threat. we'll deal with that story. president obama, yep, he is going to cuba strengthening our ties with the castro regime. what does america get out of all of this? more "varney" in a moment. i know you're my financial advisor, but are you gonna bring up that stock again? well you need to think about selling some of it. my dad gave me those shares, you know.

he ran that company. i get it. but you know i think you own too much. gotta manage your risk. and you've gotta switch to decaf. an honest opinion, even if you disagree. with 13,000 financial advisors, it's how edward jones makes sense of investing.

stuart: a freed gitmo detainee and ex-bin laden aide is emerging as al qaeda's recuter. he was held at gitmo more than 10 years. released 2012. three years later he is the face of al qaeda's new propaganda

videos. he is seen denouncing the government, urging junk jihadis to travel to yemen to join al qaeda. administration stepped up efforts in recent weeks to shrink the prison population of gitmo, with the eventual goal of closing the facility entirely. president obama made it official, on twitter he is going to cuba next month, first time no more than 80 years a sitting president will visit there. ambassador john bolton with the american enterprise institute with us. mr. ambassador, what do you make of this? my question is what did we really get it of out of our new relationship with cuba? >> we didn't get anything other than idealogical satisfaction for those elements of the american political spectrum that have longed to release castro from the embargo and pressure we tried to put on that regime. we have in effect thrown castro an economic lifeline. there is no evidence that there's been any increase in political freedom, if anything the statistics are pretty clear

that more prisoners, more political prisoners are being incarcerated than being released. this visit i think is an effort by the president to bestow legitimacy on the regime hopes a successor republican regime can't reverse. he is wrong on that but i think that is what he wants to do. stuart: i know you're an international diplomat but i want your comments on the president's immediate schedule. as we discussed he is going to cuba next month. tomorrow he will not offend, not attend justice scalia's funeral. today he is meeting in the white house with "black lives matter" activists. now that is an interesting schedule. what do you make of it? >> well i think the decision not to attend justice scalia's funeral on saturday, really demeans the office of the president. to have a sitting justice die and for the president not to attend, i just think is crassly political. i understand he will be attending the viewing where

justice scalia will be lying in state at the supreme court. that is certainly a plus but he should attend the funeral service. and i think this idea that he is meeting with people, especially this particular candidate who helped chaos in baltimore some months back, i say that as person born and raise 9 in baltimore watching the city disintegrate is very sad commentary. stuart: can you point to any foreign policy success by this president. >> not a success that benefited the united states, that's for sure. we have seen played out over the past seven years, and i think we'll see over the remainder of his term, the systemic destruction of positions of strength that the united states and its allies have built up around the world. i don't mean there just military strength. i mean political and economic strength as well because i think the president believes the world will be safer place if the u.s. is less present. that is like looking through the

wrong end of a telescope but that has been his consistent idealogical view. that is the policy he is following. stuart: ambassador john bolton, thank you very much for being with us. >> thank you, stuart. stuart: walmart, that stock is up 8% this year. rare bright spot. but look at it now. this morning it will open 4% lower. we're covering that one for you. plus the bitter feud between donald trump and ted cruz. it's a legal battle essentially. regardless of the relate outcome who actually wins that battle? we're on that too. its intelligent drive is msystems...ng. paradigm-shifting. its technology-filled cabin...jaw-dropping. its performance...breathtaking. its self-parking...and self-braking...show-stopping.

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call today at see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance. stuart: getting nasty between donald trump and ted cruz. trump threatens to file a lawsuit over campaign ad. here is how cruz responded to that. roll tape. >> if i want to file a lawsuit challenging this ad claiming it is defamation, file the lawsuit. it is a remarkable contention that an ad that plays video of donald trump speaking on national television is somehow defamation. stuart: you know kind of tit-for-tat. then trump responded to that by sending a cease and desist letter. not sure what that is, sending it to cruz. >> stop. stuart: stop it i guess.

>> strong arm. stuart: you're a lawyer. >> yeah. among other things. [laughter]. stuart: this is legal is tick fight but a political fight. who do you think wins? >> cruz wins both, stuart. here's why. sounds really strong there. he is right. there is simple defense for defamation. called the truth. trump doesn't like the framing of ad. you put your own ad out there and frame way you want to. stuart: he says it's a lawsuit. >> it is lawsuit. it is just tape. stuart: will he file it? >> no, he won't. cruz is right, he goes on to say in the same clip, he not only will lose the lawsuit but sanctioned for frivolous lawsuit. stuart: a lot of people don't like to sigh rich people use the law as club to beat people. >> and as a shield. stuart: i have fancy lawyers. shut up or i will sue. >> take law on to yourself. >> this is politically win for cruz. he looks good. stuart: a win for cruz? >> win for cruz.

stuart: absolutely sure of this. >> with my gavel develop, yes. stuart: i want to leave time to look at videotape. ashley's wife is from australia. >> she is. >> i was just in australia. look at that! this is taken in a town in southern australia. taken over by tumbleweeds. locals call it the hairy panic. >> hairy panic. stuart: conditions caused weeds to pile up and grown in by gusts of winds. swallowing whole towns. not whole towns. whole houses. look at that the. >> i was reading that it takes some people five to seven hours to clear it out. they go to bed. it is back the next morning, in the same quantity. stuart: don't smoke. >> blaming a nearby farmer who let his field go to ruin for creating this mess. he is not a popular guy. look at that. a true hairy panic. stuart: spent cigarette. don't do that. can you say fire?

>> yeah, wow. stuart: see enough of that. australia. not america. opening bell, is coming up. dare i say it? i do believe possibly we've got a solid rebound on our hands. >> jinx. stuart: back in a moment. ♪

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♪ ♪ >> i think we'll see over the remainder of his term the systematic destruction of positions of strength of the united states and -- that the united states and its allies have bullet up around -- built up around the world with. i mean political and economic strength as well. because i think the president believes the world will be a safer place. stuart: there's a slam for you. that was john bolton, top of the hour. you've got to tune in sharp, nine eastern time, that's when we start, if you want to get the good stuff. the opening bell will ring -- no, i tell a lie, trading will begin in 20 seconds, and we're expecting the dow jones average to go up a little bit more,

maybe -- yeah, we'll take it. >> hey, it's all on the plus side. stuart: yeah, we'll take it. >> 800 points in three days. stuart: if i go out there and say, oh, we're in for a solid rebound, i'll jinx it. >> yeah, you already have. stuart: it is now 9:30 precisely, and the trading bell has rung. we are up and running, up 29 in the early -- 38 in the early go. [laughter] 39. 51. we'll take it. ashley webster is here. you know that. jo ling kent joins us. larry levin in chicago. i want to start with walmart. we kind of use it as an economic indicator, and today it has cut its sales outlook. the stock's going to be way down. d.r., can i take that as an economic indicator? walmart's sales down forecast? >> i believe you can for global companies, stuart. one of the big things here with walmart is that they have dropped from a 4% growth prospect for this year to zero. to zero.

and they're blaming it mostly on dollar strength. stuart: dollar strength. >> dollar strength hurting global sales. stuart: not america's economic weakness. >> they're also blaming it on weakness in brazil and china as well. they see a downward trend there. >> cost cans them $12 billion to the bottom line in this last quarter. stuart: is walmart not an economic indicator? >> no, it's definitely an economic indicator, it's one of the biggest companies, if not the biggest in the u.s., and lots and lots of people shop there. we want to watch it. one thing i want to say, and bob nardelli said it a couple hours ago was that walmart was one of the companies that raised its salaries, so is that's an issue, too, that might be hurting them. stuart: highly political stock, that one. as we said, we're up close to 800 points in the last three trading sessions, and, larry, come back in again, please. i've said this is a solid rebound. have i jinxed it? is it solid? are we going to keep going up a little? [laughter]

>> well, i don't know if i'd be necessarily a buyer today. the market certainly has a hard time going up four days in a row, you know, even three days in a row. the s&p has been up 120 points, you know, over the last three days, so there's certainly been a whole lot of buying, wouldn't surprise me to see a little bit of profit taking and then maybe resume, but it would be a surprise if we go up four days in a row. stuart: d.r., you will agree, surely, this has been a nice rebound so far. >> we've had a great rebound, and it's a bit historic. let me give you some numbers. out of the last 50 years, we've had 29 instances are -- where the market went up 1% three consecutiveties. the bad news is over the next one, two, three, four, five days less than a third of the time do we continue the up movement. after ten days, however, two-thirds of the time we'll be up. we're going to have -- larry was right. a short-term pullback, intermediate term continuation. stuart: my eyes just crossed.

you didn't get the business. >> that's a good thing, because that was good stuff. [laughter] stuart: all right, okay. never forget about oil, because that's still the market mover. well, today it is up a bit more, roughly a buck higher, $31.59 at the moment. larry, the oil producers say they're going to freeze production. the market seems to believe 'em because it's gone up again. do you believe 'em? will there be a production freeze? >> no. i think they like to talk a lot and not necessarily do what they say they're going to do. but as i told you before, stuart, they have got two weapons. one is actually freezing production and the other weapon is talking about freezing production. i think this is more talk than anything, but it does goose the market up a little bit. certainly a lot of short covering as well. stuart: if oil goes down, stocks will go down as well. will anybody take me on that one? >> i like that. >> clear. stuart: freeze at an all-time

high, why not? [laughter] now, wait a minute, ashley, i've been going through my stack of notes here, and i see something about pirates off the west coast of africa. what have you got? >> it turns out even for pirates it's not that profitable to steal oil anymore. it was great when it was $106 -- >> it's not even worth it? >> no. it's not easy to steal an oil tanker. it's huge, you have to get onboard, you have to disable the gps, get it to shore without being detected, we're talking about an oil tanker, and then transfer all the oil onto another boat. for $30 a barrel, they say forget it. the number of piracy incidents, if you like, off the coast of somalia down significantly in 2015. it's also happening on the west coast, the number of piracy incidents also down there. so it's just not worth stealing. stuart: oil is the loot that no longer pays. >> i think milk is more expensive. stuart: oil is up today, i'm looking about $31.50. what's that doing to the energy stocks?

nicole? no, adam. sorry, adam. >> reporter: it's okay, stuart. i was just trying to figure out there, let's talk about some of these. devon energy, they announced yesterday they're going to offer 69 million shares of common stock at $18.75 per share, goldman sachs is going to handle this for them. they closed yesterday at $20.33 and change, but investors don't like the additional stock, so they're going down today. chesapeake energy, let's talk about barbarians at the gate. there had been rumors maybe a bankruptcy filing for this natural gas producer. they keep dodging that bullet. they're up right now, but a year ago today that stock was trading at, what, $21.17, so you can see how the collapse in natural gas prices has hit them. finally, marathon oil, they sold their entire stake. investors don't like that, marathon down right now. stuart: thanks, adam. the collapse in natural gas prices, you should see my heating bill. >> same here. stuart: way down. good stuff. it's almost like filling up the

gas tank. [laughter] individual stocks are moving. first up, test la. elon musk is buying shares of solar city. ing look at that, down four sents on -- cents on that move. higher profits at godaddy, they set up web sites for people. theydisappointed though, apparently, they're down a buck. look at jack in the box. lower profits and a new low for the stock. it's down 18%. how about google? d.r. has liked google consistently for a long time. you like it at 731? >> i do, i like it at this pullback price, stuart. we've had a 16% pullback to the lows a few days ago. it's gotten a little hook rebound, i like it here. still number one in search, 63%, three times bigger than their closest competitor, and they have not yet broken out those numbers for youtube. we think they're about $7 billion this year. once they break those out, they're going to get a bump

whenever they choose to say here's how much youtube's making for them. stuart: i hear a lot of people say if you've got a long-term portfolio of stocks, you've got to have google in there. >> it's a legacy stock right now. stuart: how about yahoo!? they are closing, what, digital magazines, jo? >> yeah. this is a real story. ceo marissa mayer, who's under a lot of scrutiny right now, she proposed these very expensive digital magazines, seven of them. they're getting completely shut down. the verticals of food and auto and all these different, more fun types of magazine projects. they didn't work, and this is part of their ongoing decline, this is part of their ongoing layoff situation where they're laying off 15% of their work force. they're trying to streamline and turn this ship around, but remember the spin-off of alibaba didn't work, who knows if that will work. stuart: she leaves that company, she will walk with over $100 million, and her tenure has not been a success.

i wonder if any of these leftest politicians will turn around and say, what's going on here? >> bernie would like that. stuart: she walks off with $100 million and she's been a failure? what will bernie sanders say about this? you have no comment whatsoever, do you? >> no, not on that. it's a hypothetical. marissa mayer under fire, and activist investors looking closely. stuart: the dow is close to turning negative, we were up 50 at the open, now we're up just 10. maybe i really did jinx it. >> just saying. stuart: how about amazon? that stock is up 43 percent from where it was last year. way down from its high though. i'm told they're expanding deliveries with their own, like, uber-style drivers? >> yeah. they're starting to hire more on-demand drivers to help them with these deliveries called amazon flex. it's been around for a while, but they're trying to cost cut. delivering is very expensive, costs billions of dollars a year for amazon. they have existing contracts

with, i believe, ups and the u.s. postal service, and they're thinking about going more their own way. there's been reports of perhaps amazon having its own jets, so they're trying to streamline and save some money. stuart: it's a bit like uber drivers, isn't it? amazon says, come on, be our delivery driver. >> on demand, right. that's always been the cheapest business model, frankly. stuart: it's a fantastic idea. >> $11.5 billion on deliveries last year. trying to cut into that. stuart: you're a numbers guy. >> he is. stuart: without a buzzer. that's incredible. [laughter] apple, google, microsoft uniting against the fbi's order to unlock the san bernardino shooters' iphone. >> let's start with microsoft. we talked about google earlier. saying the tech company shouldn't be required to build in back doors to the technologies that keeps the users' information safe. they're kind of chiming in with

what tim cook has seen and the google ceo saying, look, this is a very troubling, dangerous precedent if apple gives in to the fbi. >> and this is the most troubling part of it, this is a business model for apple, and if they change their product based off of one magistrate judge's decision or ask, this is going to hurt the product immensely. it's not just a position of principle, it's a business proposition. >> it will end up, i think, with the supreme court, and whichever way it goes, it's going to be appealed. it's going to be in the courts a long time. stuart: those big three tech companies are defending their own interests, their customers, but some people say they are putting their company and their customers ahead of national security. that's the debate. okay? anything to add on that one? >> right now google -- excuse me, apple is on very sound legal footing. as they move forward, they haven't officially appealed, but we expect they will very soon. stuart: by the way, apple pay used in stores, you just wave your phone over the clicker -- >> yeah. stuart: apple pay is launching today in china be, right?

>> yeah, launching today in china, and it has a huge uphill battle because it's fighting against alibaba, but if you look at apple pay and how it's done here at home, piper jaffray says adoption's actually been relatively low, just about between 10-20%. stuart: hold on a second. wait, wait, wait, wait. for every hundred people who've got an iphone and they can have apple pay, only 15 actually use it? >> 10-20% according to gene munster at piper jaffray. >> stuart: that's extremely low. >> it's very low, but as we get more features on apple pay for the consumers specifically, they expect to see it tick up. but it certainly wasn't the blockbuster tim cook was expecting. stuart: that's for sure. mildly positive. stop it, i did not jinx this market. [laughter] ibm, whoa, look at this. ibm is a winner. it's up, i think, 5%? yep, 5%.

they got an upgrade, morgan stanley. that's it? >> that's all they needed to come off the low footing that they were on, stuart. stuart: that's for sure, it's been a low footing. all right, thanks, everybody. great stuff at the opening bell this morning. all right, pope francis at the border with mexico sending a message to migrants, he says they are the victims of tragedy, that the world is facing a humanitarian crisis. troubling news for hillary clinton, the latest polls indicate she would lose to every republican candidate except one, trump. more "varney" in a moment. ♪ ♪

stuart: we've gone negative. yep, only just, but we are negative.

what's that, down, what, three points i think it is, four points. basically flat. give me that, will you? >> we'll give you that. jinxed it. [laughter] stuart: sales of the chip maker, invidia, that is the leading stock on the s&p 500, it is up almost 11%. all right, moving on. pope francis was at the u.s./mexico border sending a message to my grants. made a lot of headlines. >> he kind of symbolically traced the path of migrants, he was in juarez across the rio grande from el paso, texas, he decried it as a human tragedy, forces this kind of migration. his message? a need for fair wages, human dignity and an end to the violence. by the way, the minimum wage in juarez -- in case you were wondering -- $5 a day. stuart: $5 a day? >> i would take the argument to the mexican government and say why respect you doing a better job of looking after your people so they're not forced to run elsewhere to try and make a living and survive?

it's atrocious. stuart: i think it was a humanitarian gesture -- >> sure. stuart: -- what the pope did, fine. i also think it was a political gesture. >> how could it not be? stuart: all right, leave it at that. politics, please. a new national quinnipiac poll, wait for it, it's got hillary clinton beaten by every republican candidate except donald trump. joining me now is the author of "clinton inc.," that is dan halper. welcome to the program. >> thanks for having me. stuart: okay. if every republican beats hillary clinton and the other side of that coin is bernie sanders beats hillary clinton -- i'm sorry, every republican loses to bernie sanders, i think i got this right, okay? looks terrible for hillary, doesn't it? >> yeah. not only looks terrible, undercuts one of her central arguments that she's the most electable democrat. and, you know, bernie sanders might be pie in the sky, you might be inclined to like him because he's very liberal, but i'm the one who's electable, and i'm the one who can get things

done. well, actually, you're not the one who appears to be more electable. these polls indicate otherwise. i think that's a huge problem for her. and bernie sanders, he should really use this to his advantage. i've seen him suggest he is more electable, but, you know, democrats, they -- i think bernie sanders, it's a key component to his argument will be that he is the most electable and the most progressive democrat, and i think, i mean, going into nevada, wow. i mean, i think we're in for a real show. stuart: handicap it for us, will you? from your perspective what are the odds that hillary is the candidate? >> i still think probably 60%, still slightly higher. i mean, she still has the advantage, but, look, bernie sanders might win nevada. he wasn't expected to do well at all, remember? it was just after new hampshire, well, there comes the firewall. here's a little fire jumping over this wall, right? nevada, south carolina bernie's still expected to lose probably by quite a bit, but i think that's the key.

what's the margin there, how close is it. if he has some momentum, has a little win streak going into south carolina, i don't know. maybe he does all right. stuart: wow. >> it really is the biggest story. i know we've all been focusing on donald trump, but hillary clinton might be a two-time loser. stuart: i can tell you're shocked. i mean, we all are when we see these polls. there's another story here. bernie sanders beats hillary by 22 points in new hampshire, but hillary still came away with more delegates to the national convention. with a result like that, it looks awfully like the establishment within the democrat party has rigged it in favor of hillary. and i think that's a factor in these primaries. >> yes. and that is bernie's central argument as well. look, the democratic primary is not democratic. it's not based on the number of votes. there are super delegates, and the super delegates can sway the election. the truth is that hillary clinton basically has the nomination wrapped up if you factor in super delegates.

but the super delegates are susceptible to public pressure, and the democratic party will look insane if they nominate the person who gets fewer votes solely because of super delegates. so they're either in for real problems or, you know, or people switch to bernie sanders or hillary clinton pulls it out. i mean, it could go a lot of fferent ways. [laughter] none of it is, you know, a rousing defense of democracy, small d democracy. stuart: it's just incredible. i mean, it is absolutely -- what an incredible election this has been x that's one more part of it. dan, i'm out of time, but thanks so much for joining us. we'll get another shock for you at some point in the very near future. thanks very much. >> thanks, stuart. stuart: bernie sanders surging in the polls, yes, he is. next, we bring in an economist. he's been looking at bernie's economic plan. he says the numbers just don't add up. bernie is $8 trillion out of whack. that's next. pet moments are beautiful, unless you have allergies. then your eyes may see it differently.

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a winner. all right. new polls show bernie sanders beating all gop candidates in a head to head matchup. it's a national poll, by the way. suppose mr. sanders, senator sanders, became the president? what would he do to our money? economist brian brandberg analyzed the economic plan, and he says, let's see, i've got it here. you say that he spends $18 trillion and raises taxes by 10 trillion, so he's, what, $8 trillion out of whack? >> a gap of $8 trillion over ten years, massively increasing deficits and debt. this is a double whammy for the economy in the u.s. stuart: if you raise taxes by $10 trillion -- okay, spread over ten years -- what does that do to the economy? >> tax foundation estimate n ten years you'd see an economy that's 10% smaller than it is today because of that tax increase. stuart: 10% smaller? >> that's the projection. these are massive. this is the biggest increase in taxes that we've seen since world war ii.

i mean, this is a huge -- i don't think people understand the magnitude of this increase, and the long-term effects can be enormous. unfortunately, everybody's thinking about the short term right now. how do i get free health care, free education, how to do we get more infrastructure spending. what about the long term? it is not good. stuart: wait a minute, you're a professor of economics. >> yep. stuart: at a college in new york city. >> don't sound so surprised now. [laughter] stuart: you just laid out the case against electing a socialist. >> yeah. stuart: and you're from an american university. do you have tenure? >> no. i actually feel pretty good about it. i thank the lord that i'm at the king's college in new york city, but i agree, at most colleges and universities you're not getting this kind of conversation, so you have millennials saying we love how this sounds. we can do this. it's imagination, it's inspiration, but the math just does not work on this. stuart: you've got the freedom to actually say this at an american university? >> you've got to have facts to back it up, right? there is no country that funds these kinds of programs that

doesn't do it on the backs of the middle class. bernie sanders wants to do it on the backs of the rich, you cannot do this. every country that has the free health care system is using a value-added tax, middle class taxpayers pay that just as much as wealthy -- stuart: well, his plan does include a 2% increase in taxes across the board. >> it does, yeah. it's not going to be enough. he's got a 6.2% increase in payroll taxes, 2.2% on individual taxpayers across the board. but again, you're talking about 18 trillion verse is us 10 trillion -- versus 10 trillion, you just can't get that. stuart: brian brenberg, i hope you keep your job. [laughter] >> great to be here. stuart: all right. brand new fox news poll numbers on the gop race in south carolina. we've got those numbers for you in precisely two minutes. big deal. don't go away.

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[martha and mildred are good to. go. here's your invoice, ladies. a few stops later, and it looks like big ollie is on the mend. it might not seem that glamorous having an old pickup truck for an office... or filling your days looking down the south end of a heifer, but...i wouldn't have it any other way. look at that, i had my best month ever. and earned a shiny new office upgrade. i run on quickbooks. that's how i own it. stuart: i've got breaking news for you, and this is a very big deal.

we're going to bring you just moments from now the latest fox news poll, it's of south carolina voters. remember, they've got the primary there on saturday, just a couple of days away. this poll is very important because it comes right before that primary. all right. it is now precisely 10:00 eastern time, and here's the poll results. donald trump, 32%. ted cruz, 19. so cruz -- i'm sorry, trump has a big lead. rubio, 15. he's close behind. carson, 9, bush, 9, kasich at 6%. there you have it. big lead -- >> yeah. stuart: -- in the fox news poll just out of south carolina voters. break it down, ash. >> let's talk about evangelicals. this is interesting. trump still in the lead at 31%, but ted cruz coming in second at 23%. trump has lost 3% of the evangelical vote from december, cruz has added 8%. so there you go, 31-23. rubio is 17%.

bush with 10, ben carson with -- stuart: okay, hold on a second. now, right before that poll was taken, evangelicals were bombarded with bad language from donald trump. >> yep. >> right. stuart: and trump went out and said george w. bush was a liar. >> yep. stuart: i don't think that went down very well. he only lost 3%. >> quite remarkable. >> right. and to that point, the news poll also shows who do you think attacked a candidate unfairly, trump tops that list with 47%. >> and i just want to mention in the category of voters who identify themselves as very conservative, that's the poll -- >> made unfair attacks. stuart: fascinating. >> very conservative. ted cruz, 31%. trump, 29. what's interesting here, the difference between this and december, cruz is down 11% -- sorry, is up 11%. but trump is down 5 percent. so that just shows you that cruz has picked up in the very conservative category. stuart: 11 points? >> cruz had 20% in december,

he's up 11% now. donald trump is down 5%. >> shifting rapidly. stuart: yes. but, you know, trump got a lot of bad publicity from conservatives who said you are not a conservative. >> that's exactly right. stuart: your positions on various positions over the years make you not -- >> which cruz has been saying. stuart: so he's down five points among conservatives, but cruz is coming on strong. i am the conservative -- >> and he's up 11. stuart: among conservative voters. >> yes, that's right. stuart: fascinating. bottom line here, trump holds a big lead, 31-23. have i got that right? i want to make sure -- >> you are right. stuart: 31-23 -- >> 29. >> in the overall? 32% trump, 19%, cruz. >> big lead. >> big lead. stuart: joining us now from columbia in south carolina, washington examiner columnist byron york. do you agree with us that trump holds his lead and that contradicts the nbc/wall street

journal poll? >> well, the nbc/"wall street journal" poll was a national poll, but i think this new poll, this new fox poll does confirm, i think, what i've seen here. everybody was looking at whether the debate in greenville on saturday night would have some sort of effect on trump's support because many people thought maybe he went a little bit over the top during that debate and would that hurt him. well, it doesn't appear to have. this new poll shows him with a very, very solid lead. and you were just discussing ted cruz's going up among people who call themselves very conservative. yes, he has gone way up among that group. but remember, there's a rather large group that calls themself somewhat conservative. trump does very, very well with them. the last thing i would say about this, you've seen cruz go up quite a bit since last poll. he awe peers to have -- appears to have gotten a lot of ben carson's support. carson has fallen quite a lot.

and you've also seen john kasich still toward the rear, but he's gone up quite a bit too. he appears to have gotten the support that jeb bush lost. so they've kind of been changing hands here in south carolina. stuart: so we're still in the position that when and if the field consolidates and some of the lower-down runners drop out, there's still enough support amongst the remainder, the non-trump people, to beat trump significantly if they all come together and all give their votes to one alternative candidate to donald trump. that's accurate? >> absolutely. but that's always been the case. i mean, we've had, we've had candidates win with 35 and 40% of the vote which means that 65 or 60% of the vote is for somebody else. the question here, the most critical words you said were if they all unite behind one candidate. will trump get any of that southern in some of those -- support from some of those people? we don't know. i think that's a scenario you're not going to see here in south carolina. will we see it going forward?

nevada's just three days afterwards, their caucuses x then the big test being the sec primaries on march 1. if that's going to happen, maybe we'll see it then. stuart: i want to repeat the overall number; trump 32, cruz 19. byron, are you surprised at that? >> no. stuart: a lot of people have been saying maybe, finally, trump peaks. you're not surprised he's still got a big lead? >> first of all, i have totally gotten out of the donald trump prediction business, been out for a long time. no, i'm not terribly surprised. i talked to a lot of trump supporters yesterday, he was at a rally in the low country, and, you know, i asked them about the debate. a number of them said something like this, well, he said some things i would not have said. on the other hand, i think he is the most, the best candidate, the strongest candidate for the problems we face like the deficit, like illegal immigration, like isis. and, sure, he goes over the top sometimes, but i think he's the

best candidate. so there was a lot of that in which these voters had decided that they will accept the bad with the good given what's at stake in the election. stuart: it's just fascinating, isn't it? endlessly fascinating. we're really into it here. byron york joining us, we thank you for that. good luck. see you later. >> thank you, stuart. stuart: back to the markets, please. we were up 800 points since friday for the dow industrials, we're up another 19, 20 points now, 16,4 is where we are. how about oil? up again today, $31.57. iran says it's going to support the opec production freeze. at the moment the market says, okay, we'll go with that, we're up. stock of the day, walmart. it has cut its sales outlook, and down it goes nearly 5%. ibm's a winner, up about 5%, they got an upgrade from morgan stanley. microsoft and google, they're now joining apple in the apple fight against the fbi. the feds want access to the san bernardino shooter's iphone.

apple says, no, not gonna do it. here's what former attorney general john ashcroft said about that early this morning with maria. >> all telecommunications companies have cooperated, i believe including apple, to help provide information in specific cases with court supervision, and i think ultimately we're going to have that. we cannot have an american company that provides a sanctuary or a secure area where terrorists can communicate. stuart: all right are. so he's on the fbi's side of this idea. now we have a terror victim's family is joining the chorus against apple. what have we got, liz? >> it's lee rigby's family. the uncle, lee was killed by islamic extremists in 2013 on the streets of -- stuart: he was beheaded. >> that's right. he was a member of the regiment there. the uncle is coming out saying, quote: i would hate to see on the streets of london another murder like happened to lee rigby. i hate to see another attack

like happened in paris. how long -- how many victims of crime are not getting justice because of apple's stance? he also says if the court issues a warrant to search someone's house, you would allow them in, so why is apple not letting them into a smartphone? stuart: captured the argument quite well will. >> yes, he has. stuart: injecting a victim's personal note into a very big legal question. >> yep. stuart: all right. look at yahoo!, please. that company is shutting down a large swatch of its digital magazine area. it's also closing its office in burbank. the stock is actually up, what, 57 cents, maybe 2%. now, when marissa mayer, the ceo, when eventually she walks away, she will be taking with her over $100 million. now, there's a golden parachute and a half, and she's not been a wild success at her company. i just wonder, what will bernie sanders say about that? >> yeah, that's right. stuart: what's he going to say? >> yahoo! could be setting its up for a sale.

this is what normally happens -- stuart: but it's been that way for a long time. john layfield is with us. you were a defender of marissa mayer. [laughter] don't laugh. are you still? >> no. look, unfortunately, not. it's kind of like the carolina panthers. they had a great game plan, but they found out that demarcus ware and vonn miller -- von miller were unblockable. she had a good game plan, she made some great hires, but for the most part, the execution has been just awful. and i'm not a big fan anymore, and i think that severance package, they should be tied to merit in some ways. i do find that offensive. stuart: okay. we want on the air this morning saying, look, we've got a solid rebound on our hands here, and i suggested -- and maybe, maybe we'll continue that rally today. well, we're up 14 points. where do you stand on this? is it a solid rebound? >> i don't think it's a solid rebound. i think it's kind of like the

economy wright now. -- right now. look, we have growth, it's just not good growth. retail sales last week, it was growth, it just wasn't very good, and that's what we're seeing in the market right now. they're trying to figure out what the price should be of world markets because you have a potential european banking crisis, a chinese slowdown, the u.s. is about the only thing that's doing well, but it's a matter of tallest lend rah can right now. we're -- lendly can. i'm buying stocks, but it's dividend stocks. stuart: tell me what you're buying, please. >> general motors and ford both. they have about a 5% yield, and their forward multiple is about five right now, so i think it's a safe buy. i'm also buying oil companies. exxonmobil, chevron and bp, from a 4% to an 8% yield right there. i think oil prices, i don't believe opec. i think they're lying with this -- but you have a lot of short covering going on right now. but i like these dividend stocks. stuart: i agree with you. i see a lot of interest in

stocks, big name companies that are paying 4, 5, 6% and more as an annual yield on the dividend. i see a lot of that. mr. layfield, go back to the beach. we appreciate it. that's bermuda in the background, by the way. [laughter] my heart brides for you. [laughter] -- bleeds for you. stuart: donald trump still on top in south carolina in the latest poll. his lead narrowing, ted cruz closing in. we'll talk to the cruz camp in a moment. ♪ in new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today.

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stuart: the dow jones average is now up 27, 28 points. that's where we are. look at jack in the box. it's lower, lower profits, down 17%, $63 is a new low for that stock. the parent company of the

discovery channel and animal planet known as discovery communications, strong dollar hurting their bottom line. they're down 5%. now, president obama is planning a trip to cuba next month. there's a breakthrough. what have you got on this one, ash? >> yep. heading out there next month. we believe it's part of a bigger tour of latin america. mr. obama met with raul castro in panama last april, but he said he wouldn't go back to cuba unless there was evidence of significant improvements in civil liberties. this is what he said last year. i'm not so sure there has been any improvement in civil liberties, but he's going back. first sitting president, by the way, to visit havana since 1928. >> right. >> harry truman went to gitmo in '48, so it's almost 90 years -- stuart: but not on the president's schedule is an attendance at justice scalia's funeral. >> right. >> correct. stuart: what is on his schedule today is a meeting with black lives matter. >> that's exactly right.

>> and you don't know if he will meet with political dissidents in cuba in december. he reportedly said he would. marco rubio, ted cruz saying the visit is a mistake. stuart: i'd like to see him visit the dissidents, wouldn't that be something. do you think he will? >> no. stuart: back to the election, please. a brand new fox fox news poll, donald trump, a commanding lead still. rubio, 15, carson bush at 9, kasich at 6. let's bring in rick tyler, spokesman for the cruz campaign. it's very good to see you. >> thanks, stuart. good to be here. stuart: now, you have narrowed the gap in south carolina in the fox news polls. in december the gap was 21 points between trump and cruz, now it's 13 points. how do you do it? >> well, we've got a great ground game in south carolina. you know, over this last week we've knocked on over 100,000 doors, we make about 20,000 phone calls per day. that's how we won iowa, that's how we did so well in new

hampshire, so we hope to keep continuing to close the gap. stuart: well, do you think that trump is to some degree beating himself with his bad language and his attacks on the bush family and that kind -- is he beating himself? >> well, he's had a very poor debate performance, and people are now seeing his inconsistencies, and there's a lot of advertising not just from us, but others that show donald trump in his own words. and even last night in an nbc event with joe scarborough, donald trump was confused about whether he supported the war in iraq or not to, but in his 2000 book, he talked about that we needed to do that because he believed, like george burke, that iraq -- george bush, that iraq had nuclear weapons. he's just inconsistent, but i can't really blame him because i don't think he has an ideological core, so he can't keep track of what he believes from day-to-day. stuart: what's with this lawsuit? trump threatens to sue ted cruz. >> bring it on. stuart: then trump says i'll

issue a cease and desist letter. the i mean, the public's looking on and saying, what's going on here? what is going on? >> the cease and desist letter came from donald trump's lawyer is who is a real estate lawyer, so i'm not sure what he's doing in a presidential campaign sending cease and desist letters. we did a press conference yesterday and, frankly, mocked the letter and told him that we're now motivated to run the tv ad he doesn't want anybody to see more because voters should know what donald trump has said and what he has done. donald trump's position is nobody should be able to know what i've said and what i've done. so, look, donald trump is donald trump. but i'll tell you, back to the poll, i think the most interesting thing is how far behind marco rubio is. he's now placed third and fifth, and he has the sitting governor supporting him, the sitting senator in south carolina supporting him. and you can't spend $50 million in donor money on advertising and expect to turn a third, a fifth and a third. that's going to not do very well for marco rubio.

it's hard to see his path forward if he doesn't win south carolina. stuart: you're gaining ground amongst those people who call themselves most conservative in south carolina. you picked up 11 points. >> we're winning them. stuart: you got 11 points there. are you positioning ted cruz as the conservative in the race? >> well, ted cruz is the conservative in the race, but not only is he the conservative, the party is conservative. so the 538 rates the republican party as a 71. ted cruz is a 72. he's right in the middle of them. he's one of them. he believes what they believe. marco rubio's off to the left. he's probably, like, a 56. everybody says, oh, you've got to go to the middle, well, there's nobody in the middle. ted cruz is right in the middle, we'll just keep working our ground game in south carolina. we're working very hard. by the way, the most conservatives are the most likely to vote because they care most about the country, i think, because that's why they're most conservative, was they want to re-- because they want to conserve the country because it's the most wealthy, prosperous, freest nation ever,

and we want to keep it that way. we hope those people turn out for ted cruz. stuart: i hope you get some sleep at some point -- [laughter] i don't envy what you have to do. rick tyler, thanks for joining us. appreciate it. thank you. all right. check the big board, a big day for your money. ibm keeping the dow positive. it's up 5%. the dow is on pace for a four-day winning streak, first time since october that we have seen that. >> yeah. ibm adding 48 points to the dow. stuart: really? >> that's unusual. stuart: ibm is up nearly 5.5%. >> look at that. stuart: more "varney" in a moment.

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gotta get that one right. >> that's a quick turn around. [laughter] stuart: the s&p 500, it's up nearly 10%. i'm sure we'll take that. a new report shows millions of people have been using the same primary credit card for at least ten years. gerri willis has some numbers for us. how many people have not switched their card in ten years? >> 25 million people haven't switched in ten years and another 20 have never changed their credit card. stuart: they're loyal. >> they're loyal. >> that's one in three americans, 34% of americans -- stuart: is there any benefit from sticking with one credit card? >> loyalty? stuart: no in. >> loyalty is meaningless in the credit card industry. you're number better off switching and get the benefits that are being offered to people who roll over, who move. 0% offers out there, big rewards for people who move. that's just the way the industry works. stuart: here's a number i'm interested in, and i hope you've got it. how about households with credit card debt, how much debt do households have on average? >> it's brutal.

stuart: is it? >> $15,500. that's for households with credit card debt. now, when you amortize the number over all households, it's like $6,000. it momentum look big. -- doesn't look big. but this is typically people with kids, with a mortgage, it's big numbers -- >> student loans. >> yeah. >> you know, what you're paying in interest every year is going to be, like, 9% of income. so you've got to pay this down. having said that, i'm a fan of credit cards because it is the only short-term money out there for consumers. stuart: yes. and you can buy groceries with credit cards. a lot of things. >> you could use your credit card point toss buy things on amazon. >> which is always good. >> for a while, yeah. stuart: households that have credit card debt, the average is $15,000. >> think about that. that's, you know, people are are complaining about student loans, but that is onerous for small families, young families. stuart: it also means credit card debt concentrate inside a few households which are

chronically in debt. >> well said, stuart. thankstuart: thank you. [laughter] instant analogies just like that -- analysis just like that. donald trump, yep, he is still riding high in the polls after his attacks on ted cruz and president bush. discussing all of that in a moment. ♪ ♪

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stuart: the dow jones industrial average is up 36 points. i will call about five. iran says it supports the opec

production freeze. by the way, half an hour from now, we have new oil inventory coming out that could move the market. take a look at that brand-new fox poll. donald trump holds a strong lead. carson and bush tied at nine. the weekly standard. >> a, stuart. within those overall numbers, trump gets dirty 1% of the evangelical vote and ted cruz -- that, to me is a surprise. calling president bush a liar, that surprised me. how about you? >> yes. i think that it is somewhat surprising. trump did not do as well as the

public polling had suggested he may. losing to ted cruz to ben carson and marco rubio. he looks to be much better positioned. i think that there are a couple of reasons for that. evangelicals in south carolina means something different than evangelicals in iowa. many protestants in south carolina described themselves. it does not mean quite the same thing that it did in iowa. i think if the public polling is correct, it could make it over polling. even though self-described evangelicals. >> we saw that nbc "wall street journal" poll come out yesterday. we put cruz had nationally. maybe the trend is shifting away from drum. then you have the reuters poll.

a fox news poll. all of which confirming with a strong lead. the earth is shifting. that fades away a little. do you agree with that? >> there will be new numbers out tonight nationally. they are out tonight at 6:00 o'clock nationally. i think that nbc poll looks like an outlier. it is not hard to understand why you could have seen a collapse of support for trump giving the fact that the polling took waste following that debate on saturday night here at the pollsters made a point of saying that. because of the timing of their survey, it could be the case that voters were getting a second look at donald trump. having second thoughts. eventually, going back to donald trump.

i am treating it as an outlier now. trump is really collapsing. we will probably see three or four of those polls. stuart: it is a game, really. the next fox news poll comes out at 6:00 o'clock tonight. are you on special report tonight? >> i am not tonight. i have the night off. stuart: we will see you later. good luck. look at this. bernie sanders at receiving an endorsement did that would-be democratic from minnesota. welcome to the program. can i conclude that keith ellison backed renée sanders, can i conclude that the muslim

population will vote far left? >> it is quite diverse. because congressmen keith ellison is endorsing bernie sanders, that does not necessarily mean -- stuart: are you leaning more towards democrats than republicans? >> american muslims are leading towards democratic candidates. we have not seen much outreach from the republican candidates. >> what would you want republicans to do to engage with you and win your vote? >> really toned down the rhetoric. what we have been hearing thus far is really divisive. american muslims are not welcome. we are a community that has not been part of america.

we are american muslims and americans like every other community. proving that space to engage us. >> i want to play you a clip from a frequent guest. he wants moderate muslims. isis, we do not want you. we do not like you. watch this clip. >> we are beginning to come together as a movement. against radical islam. i think whether it be on social media, i have to tell you, do we have the matches to go to the street? not yet. stuart: we cut him off a little short hair. are you with him but should mark are you with muslims like him that want a public demonstration.

>> the vast majority of american muslims are against violent extremism. they do not buy into the ideology of isis. there have been, there have been american muslims for decades now that have been out on the streets. who have been speaking on your show and others about how the vast majority of american muslims are against this ideology. stuart: i've got it. i think america would love to see the muslim community, out in force. on the street. we do not want this. we do not like this. when are we going to see tens of thousands of muslims on the street saying that? >> muslims are out there every single day. >> i understand that. tens of thousands. a lot of people. >> sure.

we welcome back to the show. asking about hundreds of thousands. we are talking about this. it is not just american muslims. it is muslims all over the world talking about being anti-extremist. in fact, in los angeles, american muslims held a rally against this very day. where was the media coverage on that? people are out there. we just need to get more coverage. >> you put that on the street and i will cover it here it that is a promise. >> thank you. what are we focusing on today. their retail site there. the biggest retailer of them all, actually. they cut their sales outlook. we use walmart as a kind of economic indicator.

the lower end of the income scale. what they do reflects what is happening in the overall economy. walmart, at the moment, is the biggest loser on the dow. macy's, target, sears, jcpenney. red arrows all across the board. >> walmart has wage increases. it has been very well documented not enough items on the shelf. solidly restocking the shelves. wages rising. also, a strong dollar. walmart says it hurt their bottom line by $12 billion in this last quarter. they do not see any change going forward. >> at least a quarter of its market cap over the last year. >> walmart has lost a quarter of its value as a company in the

last year. >> correct. 2016 prophet was down by at least 12%. google is coming down. walmart, a big part of its profits are groceries. >> you shocked me there. walmart loses a quarter of its value? >> 63 as of right now. got it. "wall street journal." donald trump may not survive the death of justice scalia. we have that for you in a moment.ee ♪ no ma'am. our at&t 'buy one get one free' makes it easier for your staff to send appointment reminders to your customers... ...and share promotions on social media? you know it! now i'm seeing dollar signs. you should probably get your eyes checked. good one babe. optometry humor. right now get up to $650 in credits to help you switch to at&t.

>> i am adam shapiro. the dow remains positive things to ibm. the nasdaq and russell 2000 have gone into negative 10 territory. ibm, about a year ago, trading in at $176,000. $433. take a look, also, add american express. they put out a statement at this time. we do not know that what the magnitude of those will be. coming down the pipe. at least on the bottom and.

other retailers will be reporting. nordstrom, macy's and target. more varney after this. ♪

stuart: marco rubio holding a campaign event today. roll tape.

>> she did it because she'd hang said she is above the law. they always think they are above the law. she thinks she is someone who thinks he is above the law. let's talk about benghazi. i think that this qualifies her to be commander and chief. >> how candidates respond to hecklers in the crowd. it happened with john mccain. the president is not quoted. he did not correct a person in the audience that was criticized. >> hats off. she is a traitor. i would not go that far. >> successful handling. >> medium.

>> fracking industry in north dakota. since 2000. revenue cut 80%. cutting off 60% of his workforce. joining me now is co-owner. that is a bust and a half for your business, sir. can you cope? can you stay in business? >> hangs are pretty tough right now. looking at other avenues. this decline in oil prices have impacted us and other businesses in the area tremendously. >> your entire area is a bust situation gmac absolutely. down 75% from what they were. all the supporting businesses. >> what do you need the price of oil to be?

>> we do not need $100 oil. there is a happy medium. i believe that the average consumer could afford the prices stuart: could you afford to stay in business if it stays at $30 a barrel? >> a report from the front line. >> thank you. >> that hurts. to the campaign trail. the latest fox news poll. showing donald trump 32 points. crews 19. tied at nine. kate sick at six. my next guest. it is called electability on steroids. dan henninger writes this.

the death of scully up. it has disrupted the gop's fantastic tourney. look at who is here. henninger himself. the premise of the article is the two events, a replacement for justice scalia. >> it is what is at stake. suddenly, everyone was talking about an issue that was in the background. that was always there. now instead of talking about immigration all the time and amnesty, we're talking about the future of the supreme court for a generation.

carry those states and bring those senators into the senate? without them, you will not get anything done. >> know, up until now, they have

been thinking about only individuals. voting for a marvell comic bug. getting into the oval office. you will need to control the entire government. rather than using it for a generation. stuart: he is getting animated, and we love it. good stuff. in europe, they want the 500 euro note. there is a proposal to get rid of the $100 bill. what is going on? the government wants to track you. stay tuned for my take. it is coming up. ♪ ♪ ♪

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ted cruz is closing the gap. cruz is at about 19.

a five-point increase from the last poll. now just 13 behind trump. it was 21 points a couple months ago. marco rubio fighting as well. all in single digits. trying to make up some ground there. cruz and kate sick are the biggest rise. carson has dropped six. the backers appear to be locked in. we would support trump. certain to vote. ken volk best among veterans. a big demographic they are. ted cruz fares best among those that say they are very conservative. >> how about the evangelicals. >> this was broken down as two

white evangelical voters there. topping that group there as well. ted cruz is at 23. gaining in that block. cruz slipping a little bit. >> thank you so much. take it away, stuart. >> you may not be --

stuart: they want to ban the 500 euro banknotes. there was a proposal to get rid of the $100 bill. certainly a war on big denomination banknotes. governments want to keep an eye on what you are doing. that leaves a trail. use -- away a pile of bills, you have left no trail.

here is another reason. negative interest rates. that is why she wants to ban the 500 euro note. hoarding cash. over here, janet yellen is considering negative interest rates, two. posing the $100 bill. larry summers is leading the charge. they know that the moment the banks or anyone else confiscate some of your money, you hold the cash. you will build up that pile of benjamin's. i am not a conspiracy theorist. i am very wary of big government. i figure something is going on. i think it is a war on cash. gold bars, anyone? double mocha. >> okay.

it is a replacement for cash. >> it is. we are waiting another 10 seconds. we will get the weekly oil inventory numbers. how much oil do we have in storage? it could really move the market. jeff flock. the numbers, please. >> looking at the board. you will watch the numbers flashed up there. we actually got a build of 2.1. we expected a draw of 1.5 million barrels. instead we got a build of almost 1.5 million. instead, we gained 3 million barrels of gasoline. we used a lot less gasoline than we thought. crude actually, overall, very bullish.

inventories have a role to play. there we go. that is my prediction going forward. >> we have an extra 2 million barrels of oil going forward. the latest oil numbers. the market has moved just a little. come on in. the arabian gulf. >> his name is gerri bailey. thank you for being with us. >> you have all kinds of experience. do you think that this will stand? >> i really think that it will hold. >> you are saying be exact opposite of what so many others are saying. they will cheat again. >> those are correct statements.

there is a limit of how far this can go. how far this can trickle down. >> not lost a lot of money. >> producing so much. >> the past generation. expecting little things. >> the bottom line to you is the oil production freeze holds and the price of oil bottoms around, stabilizes around $30 a barrel. >> that is my position. i do believe that there is an opportunity for it to stop moving up. there is too much speculation. too many people making statements. >> you are like a politician, for heaven sakes. >> i have seen these things.

they come and go. it is about to play out its position. stuart: this is a pivotal moment. maybe that freeze will be many production cuts in the future. >> i think that it is a strong possibility. the wildcard obviously being iran. we struck his terrible deal with them. the wildcard in america, the frack are starting up again in the past. >> not that fast. a lot of people lost jobs over this business. i do not think that they can come back that quick. supply and demand equation still works. >> what you are saying is very

important. the freeze holds and oil stabilizes at $30 a barrel. that is good for stocks and the oil market. >> as good as mine. i have a lot of experience in that. i spent years in the middle east. i have a lot of friends. i am feeling good. stabilize and then maybe move up a little bit. >> ;-) very much for joining us. >> one hour ago, it shows a donald trump with that solid lead. trump, 32. ted cruz, 19. doctor ben carson and former governor jeb bush tied at nine. tying at six. bret baier is with us. a couple things that stood out to me.

among evangelicals, trump leads. his lead is narrowing quite significantly. >> first of all, the topline headline is that donald trump has a big lead. leading in evangelicals after taking a bombardment. being pro-choice before. there are ads that ted cruz's running. really running that hard. >> donald trump. the vehicle. no matter what he says to antiestablishment, anti-washington. this is a guy who is carrying that right now. >> how about the other points that have been made here?

ted cruz leads among people who identified themselves as strongly conservative. he leads trump by a couple of points in that sector. >> only a couple of points. donald trump conservative was challenged by three-four candidates on that stage. i think it is a very bad poll for jeb bush. who, after his brother was campaigning, in a state that the bush name is very well-respected in 84% approval rating. favorable rating in south carolina. single digits. i do not think that it is a bad poll for john kasich. >> is it also a bad pull for jeb

bush? >> yes, it is. he finishes where this poll has him finishing. there will be a lot of calls. >> i am very surprised. harshly criticizing. jeb bush has not recovered. >> i am a little bit. this is about sending a message. it may not be the best perfect messenger for every voter. this is where they are coming to. they are coming back with times to shake up washington. they feel they can do it best. right now, is donald trump. >> it is released at 6:00 o'clock. you can bet your life we will all be watching. bret baier.

all right. donna cook rowley is with us this thursday morning. your thoughts on the numbers we just discussed. >> a very strong pull for donald trump. a strong lead for a very long time. if cruz after his performance last weekend that he can literally say and do anything. his course of work remains loyal to him. this is about the base of support. independent moderates and disaffected democrats who are sick and tired of the status quo. look, there is a headline today and my newspaper. it says that there are signs among the republicans of backing down. blocking down president obama's neck supreme court nominee. every time you get a headline like that, it reinforces the fact that the voters are fed up

with the republican establishment. that kind of thing helps only one person and that is donald trump. stuart: he will not attend the funeral of supreme court justice scalia. not going. what do you make of that? >> not the first to not attend. i find it particularly distasteful. this president is not going. justice scalia came out to announce it without wearing a neck type. it indicates something much bigger. that is a disrespect for the conservative point of view. americans that adhere. the way the country should be ran. that minor gesture goes into a bigger without attending his funeral. >> look at the dow industrials please. stocks are now down.

this follows the result of the oil inventory numbers. an extra 2 million barrels of oil on the market. >> oil is now down. that always affects stocks. the dow is down 40 points. that is what is happening. stocks end up a little bit lower. the dow 30 stocks. ibm. it is up 5%. go and upgrade from morgan stanley. trump leads in the latest fox news poll. we hear all about that in a moment. ♪

stuart: we are following this for you.

issuing new travel restrictions related to travel threats. the department of homeland security saying that people recently traveled to syria. will not be eligible to calm to this country. >> why is this not in place already. stuart: are they tightening after the fact? >> it would seem that way. stuart: did you recently traveled to libya, somalia, lemon? you have to go through that before you can come here. stuart: a passport that says you have been there. escalating terror fears. donald trump and ted cruz have been talking about this at the same time.

next month, it is the first visit there. monica, can you put your finger on why the president chooses to go to cuba? >> because, barack obama from the moment he became president, he wanted something on the forum politics side of his ledger. his original thought was that he would walk through the streets. that looks less likely, even after the iranian nuclear deal. with cuba, he will walk through the streets of savanna. reopening relations with the cubans. just like the iranian deal, you know why, this president got no concessions. not a single concession.

>> will he get to speak with cuban dissidents when he goes to cuba? >> we will see if he asks to speak with them. not have a single audience. not because they were in america, but because they did not ask. he needs to ask. he will probably be denied, but he needs to ask. the gop primary is two days away. that is it. trump leads by a double-digit margin. congressmen, with all that donald trump has had to say, his bulger language, calling president bush a liar, etc., etc., etc. would you have thought that it would have narrowed a little

bit? >> i am. he began to go way, way, way out. i still believe this. i still believe that his numbers will begin to trend down. it will continue to rise. why do you think trumps support comes down? what will push him down? >> i do not think that people have an informed opinion about what they think about megan kelly. i do think they have an informed opinion about pre-9/11. that continues to be digestive. roughly about half the voters have not made their final decision yet as to what they will do two days from now. wait a minute, is that crazy talk or is that real talk.

it is close to pushing are not pushing a nuclear button. i am frustrating with washington votes. i think his numbers will tip. stuart: anger at washington for real change. is that the over riding theme? ripped away from trump. i am the guy that would really change things. if that is the key issue, it is hard to see.

i think again, you look at a break on the undecided voters. i will go to cruiser rubio. you pick your flavor. the numbers will narrow. it is a profound frustration with washington. a profound frustration with the economy. i think he has that walk up. you look at percentages. i think you'll see more on the other side. stuart: a pleasure. thank you very much for joining us. gun rights. taking center stage in south carolina. more on that in a moment. ♪

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president. hunters, gun collectors, firearm owners and people that like self-defense is whether or not this country they go down the road that ends up in the two nations. stuart: that was david. you know him. what will be an issue in south carolina is gun rights. you place that at the very center of the argument. the use of executive orders. all the unconstitutional things we have seen this president to do. we know we have a liberal president like barack obama.

wanting to take gun rights away. you need a solid second amendment advocate. stuart: it was justice scalia who wrote the opinion. it was justice scalia who write the five-four opinion that it is a personal right to bear arms. it cannot be taken away by the government. a new member. you have reversed the whole idea of the second amendment and the personal right to bear arms. you replace scalia with a advocate and advocate you have the court flipping in the other direction. that affects each one of us. >> remember, the second amendment. the bill of rights. giving individuals the right to

protect themselves from an overarching government feared. >> right to mention that it was written and australia. the immediate reaction was get rid of guns. put the guns away. no problem that getting guns. their ability to protect themselves. >> sharp edge. all of silicon valley is lining up against the valley. they are expanding all kinds of people. the judge is next. ♪ pet moments are beautiful, unless you have allergies.

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the fbi. latest is google siding with's and so too is microsoft, all three of them saying don't unlock a terrorist's iphone, do not present a new key that lets everybody in sake. judge andrew napolitano is here.

take that smile off your face. you heard the story. judge napolitano: i'm smiling because of the unique way you describe it, don't and what the terrorists iphone. don't let the fbi conscriptees into working for the government against your will. let me present some more news. of british soldier be headed on the streets of london, bloodthirsty activity. his relatives are saying unlock that phone because if you unlock the phone you might stop future outrages like the be heading of our sun. what do you say? judge napolitano: that might be correct and my heart goes out to them. you might do irreparable image to the constitution to the right of businesses to conduct their business model as they wish. and the damage to basic american fabric of law which is you don't go to a court in secret and get

an order against your adversary to bring action against the adversary and let the judge hear both sides. fbi was negotiating with apple for weeks, four five weeks. with the fbi saying we are taking you to court, they secretly went to court, made a 1-sided application and the judge inexplicably heard just one side and granted the fbi application with no opposition so right off the bat without getting to the merits this order is defective because apple was denied due process rights, it's a in court. stuart: counterpoint, the judge that order was exceptionally narrow, relating only to that one phone ending instruction that if it was unlocked, it only unlock one phone, the unlocking

mechanism can be coded so only that phone could be unlocked? judge napolitano: if apple possessed evidence in this case, evidence that it had that the fbi was worried apple might not turn over, evidence the fbi was worried apple might destroy, the fbi can't would judge and get a search warrant agencies that evidence. that is the way all works to preserve the evidence for subsequent use in court. apple doesn't have what the fbi wants. the fbi wants doesn't exist. the fbi wants apple to create something new cell how can the fbi do it? stuart: how can apple fund microsoft and google? how can they say no? that is the judge's order but we are not going to obey the law.

judge napolitano: there simply is no authority in american law for the federal government to commandeer a profit personal or private group for private corporation and have them to the fbi's work but what the fbi can do is they have lists budget and you like this because it might raise the stock apple, they entire away apple's engineers they are willing to leave and them federal police and adam as federal employees, apparently the be all right in its own camp, that would be lawful and would not require intervention of. stuart: apple can and engineers to stand and not go to work for the fbi but you know? we are out of time. you knew that. we will see you tonight on special report. judge napolitano: absolutely.

national security, relief from guantanamo bay in 2012 has from the -- become a pawn in voice about how in the arabian peninsula and army rangers doctor of out the tune with us all. what do you make of this? you will say you can also be approved of ge's getting out of it moe and jack on the battles or in terms of the city. how strongly do you feel? >> the obama administration is unraveling everything we have accomplished over the last 15 years. let me put it in perspective for you and the viewers. my platoon, my unit deployed for 185 days and we stayed in the trenches and our mission was to hunt down, capture or kill some of the worst terrorists the world has ever known and in doing so my unit to an 85% casualty rate, six guys were

shot in the fourth. i myself was wounded and mike and and i have walked along with all the other members of the u.s. military have watched for the last seven years at the have slowly released these guys on the battlefield and there is no question in mind that these men will lease from guantanamo bay will return to the battlefield and be involved in the again and kill innocent people. is deplorable. stuart: you were in the trenches literally, and for 85 days, you were air all that time. you were out there hunting and killing and capturing these terrorists, you have to know if you kids someone who was taken to gitmo is being released. >> difficult to say that it is possible. the men, the terrorist we capture on the battlefield were released because of the credit

red tape for getting to guantanamo bay and we are facing the same everests metaphor on the battlefield and so it's hard for me. i don't speak for every member of the military but i would wager to add that most military veterans, it is hard for them to watch this sort of thing. i question what we are doing over there, was it worth it. when we since soldiers. stuart: if you go in with, like an f, you got to win. i am out of time but i'm going to read your, i want to what the name of the is. out lot and. john darnell was a guest of ours today. stuart: check the big board, not

much movement down 30 points, a price of oil and no movement now we were up in dollar and now >> translator: the dollars a barrel market watcher david dietz is with us, he brought with him, not with him but ideas here cristophe, like that many would buy the now. first, that life. i not heard anybody amend that in a long time. >> the biggest insurer in the world, stock is down 1/3 from last june and is marked down. i love about it is getting paid while you wait for industry conditions to get better. the use close to 4 isn't that better than that is increasing in a double digit lead. why is the county into rates are low. how long will they stay low? case systemic important? you have a great case but we're hedging our bets by spending

operation to one diet and hold. cisco. >> need to be a growth investor to take good vintage or value investor but you can't take vantage of that. it -- stuart: always in the mid 20s. >> you have that number% dividend. how many companies you get in 4% dividend and they are bound back shares at a prodigious pays its very small press did governing as they are paying up meanwhile you also houses the investment in terms of the internet of beings. gross, don't you might? stuart: caterpillar. was it yield? >> close to 5%. they have been cranking that up 12% for the last ten years. we know why they are down in you get a 40% discount because the mining business has gone to hack but it will come back and we like caterpillar. stuart: wait for it to come back

and milk 5% in the meantime. you talk fast and get a lot in but met life is 4%. caterpillar 5%. susan sarandon speaking out about identity politics on twitter. listen to this. she says it is insulting to women to think you would follow a candidate just because she is a woman. hillary clinton doesn't represent interests. bernie sanders does, simple as that which i was not expecting that. >> democrats, liberals, leftistss predicts have been slicing and dicing the american population according to race, gender, age, ethnicity. a divide and conquer. it is surprising to hear, classic leftist like susan sarandon and won't vote for the candidate just because she is a woman. we saw this dynamic in 2008 and to some extent in 2012 where you have a lot of black voters

voting for barack obama simply because he was black said the dynamic this time around has changed. susan sarandon, the the the bit of the exception to the rule because she is an older woman. mrs. clinton's core constituency is older woman, younger women don't care that she is a woman and they are with bernie sanders because of the ideology. stuart: quinnipiac poll shows bernie sanders head to head beats every single republican candidate. no further comment. after the break, it is extraordinary. the last man alive to walk on the moon is here, his knees captain gene cernan. what a guy, he is here on set from the moments from now.

..

adam: adam shapiro live on the stock exchange looking at how we are performing today, oil is falling, back into positive territory. all in negative territory right

now. after disappointing earnings. and investors don't seem to like that. and goldman sachs down 7.7%. and purchase insight trading, it presents, and raised his stake 158 shares, that stock is up on that news and stocks that are winning today, ibm, intel.

stuart: checkout automaker stocks. gm, ford, fiat, chrysler, but auto makers that down today. i will call him a living legend, living hero. he is. the last man to walk on the moon. come on in, captain gene cernan. welcome. >> thank you. stuart: we rearrange the entire studio for you. >> i have gotten to know some of these folks. they are all heading in the same direction. lauren: when you have a documentary. i have seen it and i really like it. i cited at the naples film festival. >> it is important.

if you like it. stuart: what i got out of it was a sense of adventure that you captured back then going to the moon. what an adventure. what a deal. i think we have lost it. >> that is the point of the movie. i know something back. give the new generation something to look forward to and get their hearts and mind, i have a couple dreaming impossible, make it happen. the movie is not about me. is the story of a kid from any town, usa happening to grow up in chicago, mom and dad didn't have an education, good grandparents, world war ii, had a dream about being unable eater. i wanted to fly off carriers and do what they doing in midway during the war.

i stuck with it dream and got that education. my dad never had a chance to get it. stuart: what makes you think you can inspire today's teenagers who wants to go to mars for example? that is in the future but i don't see a lot of life behind it. >> i see lot of those kids and the enthusiasm is there. some is latent enthusiasm because they don't -- no one is talking about it and we are not giving them the opportunity to become doctors and scientists and astronauts or teachers. we got to sort of promoed the thing that is important in the future of this country and that is those kids. stuart: a brief clip. i loved it. >> you are biased because all whole crew that put it together is british. believe it or not they are. the director read my book, he was passionate and he said we are going to make a film 10 or

20 years down the line, got to know how it was done and why it was done. that terrible 60s and how we overcame that and i said i have already brought that swamp in the desert. stuart: it was a time of enthusiasm and energy and uplift. here is the future. let's go get it. told on a second. wrote a brief clip because this captures the spirit of the documentary. >> go down, get suited up. >> you have been suited up a thousand times before for all kinds of tests. this is for real. stuart: that is for real. the feeling now the we did back then? >> sometimes even today it seems like a dream. but i know it happened. i know what it took to make it happen. we all got our pictures in the paper on the news with stuart varney and what ever but there

is another half a million more people -- what i am really saying is we didn't go to the moon malone. we have every worker in the country put in that and bolt or piece of wire in the spacecraft, that was their spacecraft and what they did was not going to fail. the testimony that sums it all up is everyone who went to the moon including apollo 13, we stand in loss of apollo one, come home and talk about it. we didn't think it was going to be that way. stuart: a great documentary. i recommend everybody see it. it is an honor to meet a bidding legend. stuart: i am not sure i deserve those words but i will take them. stuart: by the way, not to change the subject, is national drink wine day.

one of the world's great winemakers is with us and he is an american, after this. i've been called a control freak... i like to think of myself as more of a control... enthusiast. mmm, a perfect 177-degrees. and that's why this road warrior rents from national. i can bypass the counter and go straight to my car. and i don't have to talk to any humans, unless i want to. and i don't. and national lets me choose any car in the aisle. control. it's so, what's the word?... sexy. go national. go like a pro.

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if and when he says something dramatic and he probably will, we will take you there. meanwhile this the new study finds millennials responsible for consuming almost half the wind we drink in this country. charles smith is with us, wine enthusiast 2014 winemaker of the year, frequent guest on this program despite the hair. what is with the hair? >> it is cold. stuart: i told the audience you are a great winemaker. >> a couple of my favorite around the world including where your son is, chester has hair like this. he was one of my favorites in california and the late great fellow who had big curly hair. stuart: i have got to give you credit because you produced and

food -- kung fu wind. i didn't know that. what is a special about it? >> a great variety, dry white wine and very drinkable so that is what makes it successful. people want to drink wine as of vintage. having access, a classic linemaker but contemporary packaging, started in 1999, i speak the language of today, but the winemaking style. stuart: when you make a lot of money? >> so far so good, first-place new york city. i didn't sit in the back. stuart: good for you.

you shock me. stuart: kent food apparel, you are out of here. more varney after this. this weeks btv spotlight features parnell pharmaceuticals, parn on nasdaq. parnell is focused on delivering innovative solutions to unmetanimal health needs in the 70 billion dollar pet market. we have core competences in drug discovery and development, regulatory filings, we have our own fda approved manufacturing facility and we have a significant commercial presence in 14 countries. zydax is our lead compound that we've been marketing in australia zydax affectively regenerates cartilage and can literally save lives. we had one of our sales executives tell us a story of seeing a dog in a clinic that just four weeks earlier had been

brought in to be euthanized. the pet parents had to carry the dog in, it couldn't even walk. after just four injections of zydax the dog was bouncing around in the clinic. we will soon launch that drug in the united states and also europe. parnell pharmaceuticals, parn on nasdaq. for the full interview go online. you're an at&t small business expert? sure am. my staff could use your help staying in touch with customers. at&t can help you stay connected. am i seeing double? no ma'am. our at&t 'buy one get one free' makes it easier for your staff to send appointment reminders to your customers... ...and share promotions on social media? you know it! now i'm seeing dollar signs. you should probably get your eyes checked. good one babe. optometry humor. right now get up to $650 in credits to help you switch to at&t.

stuart: donald trump speaking in south carolina, the gop primary is there on saturday. so far he has poured a lot of cold water on the wall street journal nbc poll released yesterday which showed ted cruz with the two point lead over donald trump. he is not happy about that. he said that was a phony pole. ashley: look at every other poll, doesn't show that. stuart: the fox news poll released two hours ago show showed trump with a 13 point lead -- what was the lead, 20 points, 13 points that they have over ted cruz released about an hour ago.

sharp edge monica, in trump's enthusiasm. >> seems like a rat named. i will take it. it is a little fluid but not when it comes to donald trump. he kept up his commanding lead. stuart: it is all yours. neil: thank you. we have been monitoring what donald trump is saying in south carolina. obviously not a fan of that particular poll, bashings global street journal in the process but the fact of the matter is we looked at a lot of these polls in all sorts of ways. there's one bit of disturbing news