morning hope you are having a good friday morning. i am maria bartiromo. it is friday, august 2, it is 8:01 east coast time for the hot topic of the hour former president trump breaking about peta google in sit i do know interview last night told me a surprising call received after the assassination attempt on his life. >> i know that a lot of silicon valley types got behind i after the assassination attempt on your live. >> musk was supportive before that. >> over last two weeks see

what happened with google meta. >> search -- results of shooting, ai tool not giving any information about it meta ai tool said the shooting was fictional, facebook labels photos of you pumping your fist as altered you still have a major problem with big tech don't you -- >> so, ai is very complex. it is got tremendous potential but also has potential to destroy. and they actually had one picture with everything the same except all of the secret service agents around me great people very brave people ran into that, those bullets going over my head i heard them going they are moving along, these people jumping on top of me, there wasn't one of them that was slow moving or -- you saw them, they were jumping on top of me as fast as i was down they were on top of me very brave. and when i got up, you know you see the faces they were

not happy they were angry, they were looking around. they have one picture where secret service is all smiling laughing, as protecting me i had same hand up everything else, it is ai dangerous thing you got to be -- very careful with artificial intelligence. >> meta said picture wasn't altered first attedered -- said altered then not. >> would not allow information about what happened. >> they called me two times, after the event said that was really amazing very brave, you know actually announced not going to support a democrat he can't because he respected me for what i did that today think what i did maybe was to me a normal response, but i was called by -- mark zuckerberg yesterday day before apologized said they

made a mistake et cetera, et cetera, correcting the mistake google nobody called from google one of the things do i in a show like yours you show you say it on fox but when you really see it all over the place take clips of your show doing right now with me if i do a good job they are going to vote for me they are going to vote for me because not just on fox it is on fox a smaller part of it own all over the beautiful cell phones all over the place. you have a product you have a great product you have a great brand you have to get out you have to get out to do things like your show and other shows, and google has been very bad of this been very irresponsible i have a feeling google going to be close to shut down because i don't think congress is going to take it i really don't think so google has to be careful i will say this i believe mark zuckerberg called me a lot i think they fixed it not doing

what he did four years ago with 500 million dollars i don't believe. >> and not endorsing a democrat first time he hasn't. >> are you going to encourage liability protection removed should you return. in congress now when i look at parents absolutely destroyed by it that is okay with me they can't produce something do i think a very slow, very hard to do, have to go through every tweet go through every single thing that happens, like in case of elon, elon doing a good job elon involved me very strongly, and -- maria: tiktok. he has a good inside of mess. maria: what do you think? >> elon elon musk i think, i found him to be very his view on the whole situation with should we have restrictions, and i think i have he wants certain restrictions, but it gets you know very complicated

subject freedom of speech whole thing, but when you see some of these kids committing suicide over false things that are put out, over these platforms i will say that jeff bezos, said that picture is one of the most important pictures in the history of our kin. he was very nice even though -- "washington post" you know, we had a long talk he said i was glued to television for longer than every glued to my television. all people called after the assassination all called me they said thank you. >> they thanked me, nobody from google did jeff bezos did mark zuckerberg did elon does a friend of mine gave me strongest endorsement, elon is not somebody to endorse if he doesn't believe in you, he give a me strong -- i am not so -- big on electric cars not like i am saying go

all-electric he understands that won't work will literature the electric car. >> tiktok? i see a lot of propaganda on tiktok i am seeing lot of positives about kamala harris china ccp all-in for kamala harris on tiktok. china probably wants her understands that i understand if people want to save tiktok have to vote for me if they don't want to safe-tt see what happens, china doesn't wavent me to win. obviously. because i was kick china's ass, nobody ever he i took hundreds billions of dollars out of china i took contracts away from china i took the phone system away from china going to italy and over countries. china will do everything they can and one of the things that is really a little bit -- uh -- nerve-wracking, being they are putting full force they don't want me they want to

continue to rip off america with me they can't rip. look. she is not a smart person. she is not a smart person. if i look back, five weeks ago before this whole thing happened where you know a coup of joe biden, all of a sudden media sayings stuck with this now make her smart people that are very pro-china people that are pro other countries people that look at a world view think united states is going to be a dumping ground for the rest of the world, these are people that are not good for our country. but they china wants to have her so balanced they wanted joe biden too wanted anybody but me i have tan hundreds billions of dollars away from china businesses away from china communist party is not doing well right now because of me, biden cannot get rid of taxes the trifdz that i put on china can't you know why? because they take in so much money. i am the one did that. and one thing before me, there

was no other president that took 10 cents out of china. maria: they say they are developing nation. >> they do they are not we are a developing -- >> why is trump campaign on tiktok. >> a ccp controlled. >> i said i want to go on tiktok tim one says we should save tiktok. maria: you can't get respect on big platforms do you think fair to go back to x? as well as truth social. >> truth social is doing phenomenal that is my voice x, great that he bottled it elon bought it i am for country more than for anything else they were really dishonest with twitter, i am not sure -- very interesting second thing have changed name doesn't matter it was great to elon bought it because we have a voice, we had no voice on twitter no voice at all everything put out they put a flag on no it matter what you said they put a flag on it i think trying to do a really

good job i think is doing an important job i don't know if good business detail maybe not probably not a good business deal but i think important that he bought it. >> are just getting started stay with us be we will be back with reaction to interview with presidentv the july jobs' report could be a market mover 20 minutes' time you are watching with maria" live business. stay with us. . . (qb) this is it. one play. this is when we find out...

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have been talking about interview with former president trump, doug collins your reaction to a what trump said there about google, and how it is a dangerous situation right now with regard to what went on in terms of censorship and censoring a former president assassination attack, attempt. doug: if something we have to

look at forward in new world ai how controlled, are and google -- not first problematic issue my problem how is it always google other platforms always seem to have issues come up with conservatives? always comes up when on right-hand side of the spectrum not left-hand side why al think pushing more than liberal agenda, censoring cutting out conservative to engage in keep calling it out something we got to do i will say this is, i mentioned basically you know taking away protection, their protection is already gone you looked at section 230 i did whether in congress you and i talked about this, the building blocks are already there he can't he had a it do things doing still have section 230 protection department of justice won't go after it one bad court ruling did not stay away, the approximations if place we got to make sure they

are held to right standard. >> i want your take on commission on national defense strategy, because, i certainly was concerned to hear the commission found that in many ways china is outpacing united states and has largely negated u.s. military advantage in have western pacific this commission says if something is not done without significant change in united states bam of power will continue to shift to china, if there were a th conflict with china communist party would win right now? >> well, again, only served in military 23 years part commissionerer boards come out first thing look most all say we need to spend emotion hardware, more on this -- world in which two-party conflict now china premium they are a threat, coming up into world power statutes not seen from them in as rolling to power to threaten us at

same point in time also the commissioners for to also failed to look at things that have flailed 3 1/2 years under biden going forward retention, recruitment process that has been our being able to maintain the readiness status that we need to have, to be able to send troops wherever they need to go, but also not just the two or set up multifront setup could singles front other thing did not seem to get addressed as much my concern taking our eye off issue around afghanistan, iran middle east houthis hezbollahs, one of the most viable problems in this world are theristic threats tend to lead toward more money my question are we spending right way to counter china and other threats. maria: a all very good points cheryl market plummeting dow industrials down that points, i know waiting on jobs were

numbers reaction to interview. cheryl: obviously, watching technology you had that conversation with former president about meta google suppression of the data the hiding of the assassination attempt, but look. you know it is a technology issue that ro thaigs seeing now from technology, small caps several guests have discussed this, we are going to get jobs number but remember jay powell wednesday pushed market up because basically gave us that september rate cut, in his own way, not specifically that press conference, but look you know, if you are going to have employment situation worsening we will see in 12 minutes if you are going to have inflation, that is -- is sticky 3%, that means the economy is in trouble again. another talking point for the campaign. how i am a going to fix economy? we've yet to hear economic agenda coming from vice president kamala harris. >> that is what we need we need granular commentary what

her agenda is. i mean john we don't know so what do we know? we foe that see that was the vice president so can't distance that much from bidenomics she was his partner unless a different agenda seen heard yet. john: exactly right recently kamala said no longer against fracking, that has got to anger the green new deal part of the democratic party the question is how far to the center can kamala afford to go without alienating, that very important core progressive wing of the democratic party i don't know, i don't know i didn't hear her say it aide said that you are right an aide said she is not going to have a ban on fracking but remember what she said in cnn town hall i want to be very clear, i am against fracking and i am certainly calling for a ban on fracking then we hear

now 94 days before election her aide says no, not true, that is the political calculation campaign made it is about pennsylvania, remember that is 100,000 jobs, with fraksdz industry just in pennsylvania, 123,000 jobs in pennsylvania the story pennsylvania that is why also backed off "medicare for all" because hugely unpopularly nobody wants bernie sanders "medicare for all" that is doa. >> "medicare for all" means "medicare for all" including illegals in this country fired up american citizens about that doug thank you so much being here you are terrific we so appreciate you joining me thank you doug collins we will see you soon we are turning attention to the july jobs' report out nine minutes fiem got all-hands-on-deck, to bring numbers check market reaction as they o cross dow

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maria: next we can on "mornings with maria" -- monday border patrol counsel breaking down recent trip with j.d. vance for the arizona border. >> tuesday poll shows trump takes lead against harris dnc florida delegate jenkins joins me with expectations ahead of the democrat convention, wednesday tens rising in middle east white house claims there won't be all-out war general jack keane with insights. thursday what will harris presidency mean for small business small business chairman is here. friday senator marsha blackburn kids on line safety act passing in the senate she will join me to discuss next steps to protect america's children. all right here on with maria." . ♪ . >> well, we are awaiting july

jobs' report out in about four minutes' time economists expecting 175,000 nonfarm payroll jobs to be he had aed to the economy in month of july, expectations for the unemployment rate, are for the rate to hold steady 4.1% joining me now ahead of number zippu recruiter chief economist julia, heritage foundation economist trump economic adviser steve moore, macromavens president sympton, joel shul han in studio djou john lonski cheryl casone thank you for being here steve moore kick us off with expectations, and your assessment of today's economy, and jobs market. >> no question the economy is slowing down. i am not saying recession, or anything like that but i think the economy has been very hot last year, all of the business owners i am talking to last couple months saying things are not a nearly as good as they were a few months ago, i am going to take the under on

175,000 estimate i maybe wrong numbers fluctuate so much also i would predict going to see more downward revisions of the previous months's estimates. >> stephanie pomboy your reaction dow futures down 289 off lows of the morning. >> i agree one hundred percent with steve that we will see downward revisions to the prior numbers that it seems standard operating procedure, tricky, this month because the seasonal factor is massive, economy typically losses a million jobs in july. getting this number right is very challenging for the bls we know track record getting it right in normal months is pretty slender. so there is that factor and hurricane hit texas beginning of july who knows what it will be i agree with steve probably downward revisions longer term trend is pretty clear seeing a

deceleration i think unemployment rate continues to move higher, probably sharply higher. and we are seeing, earnings announcements that are very disappointing especially in consumer facing companies layoffs, along with that as i said forever number one input into job growth is profit growth so that is really the key thing to watch going forward, so i expect this will be you know moderate report and in trend of decelerating employment growth. >> cheryl you are on numbers shortly getting those what are you focused on most. cheryl: revisions very important also government jobs number as well we don't have estimate for, then also, earnings, i mean if inflationary story is going to come out, of the earnings picture in this report, that is another reason you can get one fed cut two fed cuts who knows maybe three predictions all over the place today. maria: we've got great data

on jobs from steve moore, steve walk us through that chart that you have biden's jobs are large government jobs julia i want to turn to you before this number comes out tell us where you are seeing job opportunities today julia. >> healthcare governments main drivers of job growth my focus would be on private sector jobs growth outside of healthcare and -- last three months running average 58,000, 60% lower than what it was before the pandemic, 2015 and 2019 on average that means markets are a people inic. maria: exactly what steve moore's chart tells us healthcare followed by government jobs are, that are where jobs are. and i want to see if that continues, in this upcoming report. steve we will show that chart in a few minutes once we get numbers outlets assess markets going into this number. because the dow jones industrial average right now

is down 314 points, just spiked lower the nasdaq down 298, cheryl you've got numbers. cheryl: came in much weaker than expected nonfarms came in 114,000 jobs on nonfarm, the estimate was 175,000 jobs on nonfarm employment rate unexpectedly went up. we went up to 4.3% looking for a rate of 4.1%, government jobs, 17,000 on government jobs story that is actually a lot less than we got last month on government jobs we had 70,000 now only 17,000. all right. private sector jobs, 97,000, again that is muches weaker-than-expected looking for 148,000, private sector jobs, being factory jobs only 1000, the earnings per average hourly earnings, 3.6%, that is

year-over-year, 3.6% just could be clear, i think i almost gave john lonski a heart attack, three secondsog a little bit weaker than expected a little bit, labor force participation rate 62.7% is labor force participation rate so those are the big numbers looking for we will get into the report quick see where jobs issue always get a breakdown from government, for the month of july they do say that employment continued to trend up in healthcare, in construction,s transportation and you warehousing, but information, information lost jobs there. again these or two surveys put together maria i send it back to you and panel for more reaction i am going to dig further into the report. maria: john lonski reaction to report for july markets tanking let me possibility out

dow industrials down 500. john: markets no longer worried about inflation instead they are becoming worried about if possibility of a recession. my goodness. if you get three executive monthly readings on jobs less than 125,000, are we only had 114,000 for july. i am beginning to smell a recession. coming into view. if that is the case, jump on unemployment rate my goodness 4.3% up sharply from you know not long ago where was it 3.5, 3.6%? in is a bearish report for the u.s. economy, the market has it right. we have strong reason to be worried about the sustainability of corporate profits looking ahead. maria: yeah, of course, we've got a couple doozies this morning intel down sharply this morning on weakness in its quarter, john lonski, what

do you do now if you are expecting a recession and you got rollover the nasdaq is down 8% since july 11, 7.8% since july 11 when tech started to roll over. john: maria before this report came out i looked at the futures i almost fell off my seat when i realized, that fed finds futures was signing probability of 100% to three rate cuts, for 2024 now perhaps possibility half percentage point cut in federal funds rate september 18. cheryl: market betting right now looking at numbers as john kas talking two and three are now saying going to get a half point cut in september. >> half a point cut, that i wonder if that would scare markets a half point cut as opposed to a quarter point

revisions june number revised lower from 06,000 to 179,000 joel smulman reaction to market sell-off treasure yields down 17 basis points rights now 10-year 3.8% stocks down 530 on dow triple-digit sell-off nasdaq going down. >> this is a bad job report 114 now expecting 175, what is interesting as us noted, the -- the likelihood three rate cuts now very high, i think market may respond, next week in a positive manner to extend continuing rate cuts i wouldn't be surprised market comes off lows right now because, building in, expectations of more rate cuts that is generally bullish for the market this has been a very bad jobs' report. showing that weaken economy i don't think moving into recession i think market

starts to reflect large more rate cuts in larger price points perhaps in september, then november-december going to see market look at it, reflect say okay lower interest rates, beneficial the market i think going to come off the lows. maria: what a crack on jobs give kneebreak revisions from charlie brady fox business may revision down 2000 june revision down 27,000 the revisions to may and june combining show 29,000 fewer jobs created than previously reported, steve moore through your chart this is a your chart from the committee responsible you've got what is this is bureau of labor it is stats my mistake bureau of labor statistics biden jobs government jobs healthcare followed by government jobs is that what we see in this report again. >> well, government i think the number was about smaller for government growth but

government should not be hiring more people. the government should be laying off hundreds and hundreds of thousands of people my god running two trillion-dollar deficit we have to downsize government, maria we have to, you know,, i am in washington, d.c., i think i mentioned this on your show a couple weeks ago only 6% of federal employees showing up 40 hours a week 6%, people making 150,000 dollars a year working 25 hours a week that cannot continue. the other thing i would say, i was looking at numbers because as you know, we talked about this many times there is a an establishment survey the numbers we've been you took about but also a survey of you households that household survey shows this is unbelievable, that over the last year since july of 2023 versus july 2024, a neither zero job growth, so -- i got to try to figure out why there

is this wide discrepancy in numbers, but it is absolutely clear the economy is slowing down, inflation is coming down, but so is the rate of -- economic activity in this country right now. >> stephanie you mentioned july hurricane could be a factor cheryl tells me that was a factor in july your reaction to numbers. i think i can answer steve's question as to why there is the massive gap between payroll and household survey that was 2.4 million over the last year. payrolls showing 2.4 million more jobs than household survey, and that is this amputation government uses to try to a figure out how many new businesses are hiring people not yet captured in payroll, in july that number usually adds about 270,000 jobs, so -- and again you know we have seasonal issue i think

there are a lot of factors here that are distorting numbers but broadly another point that steve made about the government employment is so important because, as will highlighted they were the big contractorors jobs not just last year but post-covid. will have and state and local government surpluses, deficit -- article states now cutting spending fastest rate since great recession, one presumes will be cutting heads at the same time going to lay off a lot of people, so that sector that had contributed 77 -- for 77% job growth post-covid is not going to exert a drag on employment numbers forward. so i think that is an important consideration. maria: a good -- where does this go from here do you think things continue to weaken on the macrostory.

>> one hundred percent i would take issue not take issue but i am not surprised, contrary to john surge in unemployment rate you look at chart when you go up half a percentage point you go up two point 8 percentage pounds on average in straight line function you know chart of the unemployment rate goes like this, you know. so i expect we will see this unemployment rate near 7%, within a year, i think we're in a recession. behind the curve the market is just figuring out all this you know now rear-view mirror looking at data we've have been looking at forever showing consumer in recession companies now laying people off earnings are coming in really disappointing when you get high precisely companies amazon intel, mcdonald's, starbucks the liz goes on and on, png, netflix, earnings

numbers disappointing, so can fed provide enough liquidity to offset earnings drag? they don't seem inclined to do that finally, probably has seen at least components of this report when he stood up gave presser wednesday, so he was probably aware of some of these components hair was not on fire maybe has been a little dovish certainly wasn't hysterical the fed was still behind curve i think markets are head for some trouble here with not -- forthcoming liquidity in face of declining earnings. >> you mentioned what chart said jobs are in have lick and government, tell us more about your takeaways from july report. >> the private sector labor market suffering, they have been decelerating quickly

consumer loan growth commercial reloan growth, to zero that is having effects next few months on job a creation as well, so the fed characterization of strong labor market this week? seems like it is out dedicated not going to age well, they may be very much behind curve. >> what do you make of sell-off in reaction to this? joel clearly, the macrostory is slowing your hearing what panelists are saying that it will continue to do so. yet the market has been priced to perfection. >> yes priced to perfection. we've got to recognize, small caps up until recently have not benefited, from this market polls primarily driven bip megacap stocks, and few companies for the large expect as. for the small cap indices large and mid-cap within

indices the job market not equally distributed to companies under 50 employees, 49 and blow a negative growth market we've got to understand this is not market that isenly distributed people talked about healthcare government sector has been rising until last at it few periods, starting to slow down in this market as well. but within the large-cap stocks, it has been very unooeven only a handful of companies 20, 30, primarily companies growing if underlying labor has been slowing down quite a bit, some very negative, you know panelists mentioned ford motor other companies big ticket% coming down market unconcerned biggest jump we've seen in a few years in terms of . %, being 4.1, 4.3% it is escalated i don't think we are in recession i think markets

will mitigate some of the negativity right now because of anticipated rate cuts but certainly a very weak picture. i want to look at that chart that steve moore brought us in bureau of labor stats intrg where jobs aren't look at assertions lost jobs information technology down, transportation warehousing down that has to do with high cost of oil, and energy, information technology has to do with disruption a lot of layoffs in that sector. >> we needity making things in this country, and you know the government down the make things, by the way, government job is not you know government job just takes job of a private sector job doesn't have productive capacity to united states. you know manufacturing has been pretty weak, and so, we are -- the way i would put it over last year we've been

creating jobs wrong places the quick point if being i may your friends on wall street about what fed is going to do i agree one or two more rate cuts september and objective but if you look throughout history i was looking at numbers last 40 years or so, and that fed rate cuts often in the salvation people think they are like 1973, 1974 economy collapsed, the fed was lower in rates same thing, in -- in 2008 we had financial market meltdown, same thing after during covid, so, i think there's too much discussion on wall street about interest rates, at a time when the problem with the economy not interest rates are too high, it is that we have way too much government spending running, maria, in the last year, the national debt risen by two trillion

dollars, that is lunacy! crazy! nobody in washington talking about cutting government spending. maria: yeah. that is exactly right, a great point, and the fed has been up against the tsunami of money too many dollars chasing too few goods the fed has done what it can, to rein in inflation bying raising rates 11 times they need a break, in terms of the fiscal side of the store. and we haven't seen that yet stephanie pomboy many where is this going market down in triple-digits you just said market not going to react well how sizable a sell-off are you expecting by year-end? >> i am befr saying i am chastened reluctant to go out with a forecast with how much markets should go down i think to a overvalued if you look at that profit measure market cap to gdp talking about i late to say it close to 50%

overvaluation, here so this is you know substantial. if you look at credit spreads area i have been really focused on you haven't seen any recognition in space of incredible wave corporate bankruptcy filings diminishing ratios as a consequence surprised me i think all built on promise of a fed pivot the problems we are seeing, just temporary, the high rates that we have experienced for the last two years ago, are temporary phenomena we are going back to the normal zero percent world, world that every one thought nirvana i strongly question that thesis because, as you said, the fed appears in a box, yes. maybe they cut, but the inflation follow-ups still

aren't quite where there need to be. but, again, you know, they are behind curve here, and i think they will cut but, again, probably have some numbers on wednesday, and he was -- pretty much down the middle there. so i don't get sense markets are going to get the -- uh rate cuts quickly enough and materially enough to forestall a deeper correction look what happened in japan overnight worst decline in markets since 1987. massive. there is a mood in the global marketplace not just domestically. >> i am glad you mentioned japan, japan was down sharply overnight like the worst two day rout in japan since tsunami japan raised interest rates the japanese yen seeing

selling since i want to look at inflation we had a peak in inflation with jobs numbers average hourly earnings. cheryl: we did what is interesting not inflationary story there is an economic story. with this data if you look at average hourly earnings on yearly basis i think better indication 3.9% for the month of june, july came in 3.6% also we saw you know, a fall month-to-month as far as average hourly wages. here is thing mcdonald's example airlines all consumer products companies telling us people are coming back if someone can't afford to go go to mcdonald's saying too competitive global sales down 1% at mcdonald's told us earlier this week what does that tell you where the american consumer is where data reinforces making less money nots as being job

options available fewer jobs created all economic storm whether going to recession or not i am not going to make that prediction i am like specific to me wait to see but i will say, i will say, that -- consumers are struggling two-thirds of the u.s. economy, don't forget that that is the -- we clearly, rate cuts all year now we might get half point in september market throwing hands -- i don't know what -- >> i am reading thomasly so spot-on saying to apply stocks he has been right he said this did outlook for stocks suddenly become bearish yesterday the answer is no. for reasons why this will ultimately be a buying opportunity says tom lee, we saw a luge sell-off yesterday he says the most notable move what you mentioned earlier cheryl the probability of a 50 basis points cut in september.

yesterday that probability reached 29.9%. it was 14.4% on july 31, just yesterday alone it doubled so i guess when you look at the probability of a 50 basis points cut joel shulman you want to buy sell-off? >> well, i think we are going to let sell-off continue. this again was a very negative report. there will be a large sell-off we are seeing tech down 2 1/2 plus percent so this will be a sell-off when market starts to reflect later today, and certainly over the weekend, i think going to look at it in a different light, so, today going to be be negative see a lot of red across the board, for all reasons panel mentioned the earnings are off people aren't spending not spending big ticket items, on smaller items too across the board a lot of negativity i

th tender i agree with to manyly what we're seeing this politics steve moore take this on to manyly tells clients recent presidential polls show kamala gaining traction in key states in return reduces real time probabilities of a trump white house realclearpolitics betting average trump win 51.3% versus nearly 70% win after the first biden trump debate is kamala bad for the markets? we don't see this but we also know markets prefer certainty a close presidential race certainly not certainty. steve moore. >> yeah. i mean a romance period for kamala last couple weeks. and so, trump's odds of winning have come down i am bias ad trump senior economic advisor i don't think any question you look at so many industries who would be better for oil and gas industry a

better for financial services? i mean remember we had an economic boom and stock market boom maria when trump was president. you know stock market, rose has risen 25 or 30% higher in real terms under trump than biden i don't understand economists who say things like oh, biden would be better for inflation and better for interest rates. wait a minute. we have lowest inflation and lowest interest rates practicing ever when trump was president so i guess would i conclude saying i think real nervousness about -- look annika ka is to the left of where biden is, on issues that is the thing, everybody running around saying she is normal a centrist she is not a centrist can flip-flop on issues doses anybody believe she is anything about you a stran liberal democrat. >> tell me where this is going if you were to see, policies,

of trump return to the white house, and that means -- unlocking energy potential, do you expect job creation as a result of unlocking energy potential unpolking spigots oil and gas production? >> we did is a survey of job seekers ad what they think amorning job seekers think trump going to win think they will have a huge positive impact on the economy, among workers who think that democrats will win they are much less likely to think there will be a positive economic, sort of interesting, throughout the this week. maria: my focus on this report is two numbers decline in workweek increase in temporary layoffs, large, quarter of a million workers, and suggests to me companies are under stressed but hoping for change they know this is such a temporary thing this is

a cost of high interest rates fed could turn this around quickly all losses weakness could turnaround, suggestion here but temporary measures companies take cutting hours putting people on furlough. maria: john: got to keep your eye on consumer spending that is going to be very important this report, with smaller than expected increase by payrolls, the downward revisions, slowdown in wage growth this tells me that consumer index are growing more slowly, so it would not be surprising if companies find they are over estimated sales if companies gets stuck with more unwanted inventory, service providing companies find they're not fully using their existing staff that implies more layoffs and even slower personal income growth, in turn slowing spending i

think we might well be at the start of a downward spiral for consumer maria: so tom lee tells clients that over the next few weeks there are some important macro data points, and they matter. post-pomc, there'll be numerous fed speak moments. they will clarify the why wait for september, and we expect lead investors to be confident that september will happen in terms of a rate cut. stephanie, what do you make of tom lee's note? he says this will clarify the why wait for september, and we expect the july cpi number august 11th and tame inflation reports will still matter. >> well, again, i mean, i think the market, obviously, as discussed here has fully priced in that a september rate cut and then some. so it is ratifying that expectation, is that going to the really be supportive of equities at this point is? i'm not really sure.

look at the tape that we're seeing so far. they're pricing in more rate cuts than they were yesterday, and the market is still under heavy pressure. and, again, this narrative is and the question is, is the the fed too late, is it too little, too late? you know, if you were a junk-rated borrower and you have 8% paper that's ruling 1500 basis points -- 150 basis points lower because the fed is going to cut 1590 over the next year and a half as the market expectt really faze you? if on the back of this consumer slowdown that john just talked about. the other thing we were talking about the political outlook and the factor that it may play here, i think it's interesting if you contemplate the thesis that the market was going up in anticipation of a shift to the trump pro-business, pro-growth policy. and then as soon as kamala had a her transformation from, you know, the lowest rated vice president in history to margaret

thatcher -- [laughter] suddenly the market starts tanking, you know? maybe, maybe there's something to thed idea that the markets are nervous because they see there's a chance that we might be stuck with these same anti-business policies, green energy higher energy prices, higher taxes. maria: i think that's right. >> i would be selling stocks hand over fist as well. maria: i think that's right, tiffany, i really do. i think that's to spot on. this is also part election-related, what we're seeing. be, cheryl, take us back -- but, cheryl, take us back to the probability of a half a point cut in september. i don't know how markets would view that. i think they might view that negatively. i do not see the fed cutting rates by 50 basis points in september. tell us more -- >> believe me, that's why i jumped in earlier, because that is a very extreme bet. i watch these, well, every day

pretty much, and i've never seen that type of move based off of one data point like the jobs report we got today. but i also remind everybody another reason we're seeing this huge selloff is, of course, because of technology the stocks. look at apple. look at amazon today -- maria: intel. >> look at intel, getting crushed in the premarket. stuart: martha: 20%. -- maria: 20%. >> you mentioned the selloff in tech since june. so i think we've got two complaining factors that are hitting the markets. we'll see how we close, but it doesn't look so good as we go to the open. maria: so next week what are your eyes on in terms of market catalysts? i mean, we are going to probably get kamala harris' vice presidential pick by tuesday. she's going the want to campaign with whoever that person is next week. i'm expecting it by tuesday. finalists, certainly, mark kelly from arizona. steve moore, does mark kelly help kamala with arizona in.

[laughter] >> it's not going to be mark kelly. it looks like a very high probability it is going to be shapiro. shapiro is the governor of pennsylvania. nobody knows -- i bet nobody on this panel, none of us know a whole lot about him. [laughter] so i don't think he's going to help much, but it is the certainly going to be about those four or five states, maria, pennsylvania, michigan and arizona and georgia and so on. but stephanie made a really good point that we haven't mentioned -- maria: all right. gotta jump. >> -- higher taxes. how's that going to help? maria: god point. julia, steve, stephanie, john with, cheryl, great conversation. join me on "sunday morning futures" for more of my interview with president trump sunday on fox news. have a great weekend, and we will see you next week. "varney & company" tick -- picks it up now. stuart: good morning, everyone. we're going to the start with the very good news. evan gershkovich and paul whelan are free and home in america