you have to talk loudly so they brain surgeon and i got news for him. running the country is not brain courage ri. next. cruz and rubio, rubio and cruz, sounds like a miami law firm. if you've been injured on the job call rubio cruz. next, jeb, oh boy. poor jeb. you got to admit it's a pretty good plot twist i turned out to be the smart one. of course, i wish you would asked me about the exclamation point on his name. i don't like the taste of broccoli. it doesn't get any tastier if

you call it barack obaroccoli. >> how great is he? >> he is great. that was fun. it just goes on. >> he's fantastic. >> great character. >> it makes you miss having george bush. what an iran rancic plot twist he says that i ended up being the smart one. >> oh, good morning everyone. it's monday, december 14th. oh my goodness. it's getting close. with us on set we have the managing editor of bloomberg politics, mark halperin. mike barnical. >> are you calling him old? >> i could just say that. >> the veteran. we saw the veteran at willie's christmas party.

>> also, kristin soltice anderson. nice color joyce today. >> that was quiet an outfit your dad had at the geist family christmas party. >> i think he said he ordered it online at the last minute. wasn't quiet the right size. if you got a flame close to it he would been in trouble. >> how are you doing, mark? busy weekend? >> yes. a lot of polls came out this weekend. >> nothing like a december holiday weekend filled with data. >> have you noticed what's interesting about this. isn't it interesting the same thing happened when carson went in first place in one state and pronounced the end of donald trump. i'm now hearing the same thing.

cruz ahead in one state and now it's the end of donald trurmp. if you're at home it's cruz 1 and trump 49. got a ways to go. trump himself if he's ahead in 49 state, he obsesses about the one state he's losing in. >> trump is going after cruz. now he's trying to turn the cheek. they're going to go hard to stop cruz and i think he can come back in iowa. >> oh yeah. if he wins iowa, i think he thinks and a lot of us thinks he wins it all. >> new polling from the nbc news

and wall street journal shows donald trump ahead in the whole country. ted cruz behind 5 points. ben carson falling 18 points. >> wow. can you believe that? >> yes, i can. >> of course, we can believe it. we couldn't figure out why he was in first place. but that's a drop. what's behind those numbers? minus 18. what's the campaign saying? >> national security. that's why he took the quick trip the jordan. he's got the find a way back. he still hasn't reached his floor. he's not a right match for the times. >> which begs the question, what

times would -- >> he may come back a little bit. >> it is a zero sum game for carson and cruz. >> ted cruz picked tup 23% and carson lost 23%. >> winning iowa never changes. organize, organize, organize and get hot at the end. >> the poll also found narrowing down to the top five contenders does not help the republican establishment. in that scenario trump leads 30%, cruz 24 and carson number one. >> i mean, add those numbers up.

the only two pube establishment candidatings in the top five are rubio and bush. they equal less than one-third of the overall vote. think about that. less than one-third of the overall vote. this republican party is radically different than the primary voters even four years ago. just changed dramatically. >> not only that, we were talking the level of sophistication of some of the campaigns, specifically, the cruz campaign. cruz by big data. targeting being pulled together by panel analytics. they tell the cruz worker walking up to the door how to speak. >> they actually subdivide supporters into four subgroups and based on if there's, i

forget the exact words but if there's a bit of a paranoia streak in them then they say talk guns and talk about overreaching a federal government. if they're stoic, they say talk about obamacare. a guy whose nervous about the federal government getting too much information about individuals are a campaign based on being as intrusive. it's humanly possible to gather big data and make up profiles of the people whose doors they knock on. >> i think it's phenomenal the way the campaigns target voters. every time you swipe a credit card, accepted a tweet we're

creating a new data point. cruz's voters look most like the people we expect do show up at places like the iowa caucuses. the question remains is donald trump reshaping the republican primary elector to bring in a new group of people that wouldn't look like primary voters. they're frustrated, pop lulus a like his message. >> this is one of the things about rubio's campaign.

people are asking why are we so tough? we have said that's not an actual con stitch -- there is a chance for growth there. unlike marco showing up in new hampshire and iowa and all over the place. ted cruz will be interesting to see if he's santorum. i think if you look at his campaign, his base of support is bigger. so iowa to me would not be an outlier to him.

>> maybe he finishes second or third in new hampshire but then you go to south carolina and the deep south. right now it's trump country. those are all states we can all invision cruz winning. >> look at the race after jeb bush. that's a big difference between santorum and huckabee. after the debate he's going tock to the sec states and doing a tour for them.

he has a broad coalition. i will say about rubio, he's going to have to raise more money they're mat at him in mp notary public because he doesn't go there enough. they're mad at him in washington d.c. and because he doesn't go there enough. i read stories that the guy sits around and watches football games. if he's not in iowa, new hampshire or the capitol, where is he? what is the main dream media's argument, the republican establishment's argument? this is all i've been saying from the beginning. they called him the republican

savior before he set foot in washington. the question is where is marco? >> i don't understand why he didn't make a bigger push in the earlier states. >> what do they tell you? >> top establishment finisher in iowa. >> their tactics. if he's not showing up in the early states. >> he was on meet the press. >> people say why are you tough on marco? >> i'm not. i'm stuff on the press that says

marco is the savior when there's no evidence. >> the reason i think marco has a chance down the road to be strong in these early states is because he doesn't draw support from one type of republican voter. when you take a look at favorables, folks like jeb busch and chris christie do well among the conservatives. now, that may be a flawed they are rye but that-- theory. that's sort of a big thing to go in with. >> it's the opposite of ted cruz. he's narrowing down and focussing and being disciplined.

he's an attractive guy and can win. >> we could make some parallels. the new polls out this morning show hillary clinton tied with all the top republican candidates except for one, marco performs best nationally. ted cruz down three points to clinton as donald trump trails clinton by 10 points nationally. trump says he's unafraid of a general election match up. >> she's got no strength, no stamina. everything she does is theatrical. i watched her last night. donald trump, it looked like she practiced in front of a mirror for two hours. she says i'm dangerous.

she's killed hundreds of thousands of people with her stupidity. >> what do you mean? >> she was secretary of state and obama was president. the team, two real geniuses. the middle east is a total disaster under her. >> and a new poll of the democratic race in iowa out just moments ago shows hillary clinton's lead in the single digits. the former secretary of state leads bernie sanders by nine points 38-49%. this after a poll last week showed sanders still ahead of clinton in new hampshire by 10 points. >> over the weeked you had bernie sanders saying he wasn't getting enough press time. >> plus in new hampshire bernie

sanders is extraordinarily well organized on the ground. i'm mystified by the process on both sides. i'm wondering does his support in the primaries, especially in iowa, does it transit late to the fall of a general election? >> no. it does not. i'm shocked and this is the sort of things that right wing bloggers get angry about. i'm just telling you. i said it about romney. i'm shocked by how many republicans that have always voted republican that said they're going to vote for hillary if it's cruz or trump running against hillary.

i'm talking deep south, southern baptist. i asked people who i expected to say yes held no. no. i will never vote for ted cruz or donald trump. i will vote for hillary clinton. >> why not cruz? >> just too harsh. a couple of months ago, i said i was surprised by the voters who said they were voting for trump in florida.

we were talking to some who we were sure would love trump and cruz. joe call and said who are you going to support and they said we'll vote for hillary clinton before cruz or trump. don't shoot the mess englisher. >> i think i can't win by trying to describe a response to that. i think there are people who talk that way and then there's all these people inspired by trump who i don't think necessarily got involved in the process before. >> trump is different though. >> this is what's interesting though.

with ted cruz, you lose those republican voters, they don't go after the voter hillary. he's going to pick up a lot of voters in alabama. that's the difference with trump. he shakes the process in a way ted cruz is just not going to do. >> do they go to marco rubio, chris christie? jeb bush? >> they're split up between jeb, marco, chris christie, kasich.

th they're chopped up in a thousand different pieces. >> the cruz approach to trump over the weekend has been fascinated to watch. when trump hits cruz, he holds him closer. trump called him a maniac. >> by the way, i've got to say personally with ted cruz, i've got to be clear. i was impressed when i interviewed him on foreign policy. he was very adepth.

he's gone from being an isolationist to a realist. hey, over the weekend also. big news, alabama fan, i wouldn't bring this up but alabama heisman winner derrick henry was such a class act. >> did you see his grandmother in the hospital? beautiful. >> it was really beautiful. you know i know nothing about football but i like the personal side of these stories. >> he was so humbled too. just great. >> very classy guy. >> we'll have more of that coming up. >> and he gets better the latest the game goes. in the fourth quarter, if alabama was close knot first and second quarter, worried against oklahoma but i didn't worry about because i knew in the

third and fourth quarter he would start running over people. >> i was stunned how big he was. >> still ahead on morning joe donald trump took on ben carson's religious background. now it seems he's taking on ted cruz's as well. plus the governor of new york joins the conversation. why he's no longer waiting for washington to close what he calls a mind boggling gap in the fight against terrorism. also with us senator tim cane of virginia. the moderator of meet the press and hunt has a look at a side of ted cruz a few outside of iowa have seen. more morning joe back in a moment. (phone ringing) (phone ringing) you can't deal with something by ignoring .t but that's how some presidential candidates seem to be dealing with social security.

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25 past the hour. two new polls show ted cruz serging in iowa. donald trump preimpted the latest polling with an attack on cruz. >> he's from texas. to the best of my knowledge there's a lot of oil in texas.

he gets a lot of money from the oil companies and totally against ethinal and everything else you're talking about. if ted cruz is against ethinal, how does he win in iowa? i do like ted cruz but not a lot of evangelicals come out of cuba. i like him nevertheless. >> what does that mean? >> nothing. it means he's looking for the right wedge to get under cruz. >> he's headed towards saying cruise is ineligible to be president. >> tommy's from cuba. by the way, speaking of cruz, we

have to say quickly. you think he can expand and he has proven he can convert people that didn't like him before. >> could he win a victory? no. could he win under the right circumstances? i think so. >> ted cruz sticking with the plan he outlined about carson and trump at a planned fundraiser last week as trump has continued attacks. >> my approach much to the frustration has been to bear hug both of them and smother them with love because i think, look, i believe gravity will bring both of those campaigns down. i think the line share, their supporters come to us. >> i don't think he's qualified to be president. >> why not? >> because i don't think he has

the right temperament. i don't think he has the right judgment. >> what's wrong with his temperament? you can't walk into the senate and stream and call people liars and not be able to get along with people. he'll never get anything done. that's the problem with ted. >> cruz responded with a tweet. in honor of my friend donald trump linking to the theme song from the 1983 movie flash dance. >> willie geist, comment. >> that's the kplpolitical my friend. this is what he's done every time donald trump as commented on ted cruz as he says in that clip i told him closer and wrap him in a bear hug and shower him with love. he's going to stay by his side.

if trump goes away those will come to him. >> it's the best strategy too when jeb couldn't figure out how to handle trump was to laugh at him and jeb couldn't do that. cruz is doing what we suggested jeb do which is laugh at him. what a funny guy. cruz is very smart and very political. cruz does it well. >> the question is can he keep turning the other cheek? let's say he went on with negative adds. >> i've got to say though. there's another argument. when he doesn't respond to trump's attacks and he's laughing them off, he only grows? stature. donald trump as some point starts making him stronger.

what donald trump does when he attacks ted cruz doesn't just eleva elevate ted cruz. >> the issue you see where you think cruz is vulnerable to a trump attack? >> no. if i'm ted cruz, i focus on hillary clinton. donald trump thrives off the oxygen he gets.

>> at some point we need to do the news that happened over the weekend. the climate deal. it's a huge story. >> it's a good blueprint for the future. >> it is. it's an incredible accompli accomplishme accomplishment. >> it's a great start. >> we'll get to it in the must reads as well. >> it is a hope. it is not a reality. it is a hope. >> coming up, we'll talk to one of the leading critics. >> some of the top says it requires buy in from a lot of people that aren't bought in right now. >> right. we'll talk about this more coming up. >> we'll also talk to one of the leading critics of fisad. a new look at the power struggle

that has torn the country to pieces. first, the must read opinion pages. we'll be right back.

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this was a jab. time now for the must read opinion pages. i have two. one for the atlantic by james and one by veteran columnist mike barnical. first from the atlantic. obama kmchess master. a lot of wrong on president obama's watch. a law has quietly gone right. all levels accept the democratic party is in much weaker state than when he arrived.

the deal and the international agreement with iran, these things are not easy. if you add to this, the enactment his health care law you have to say agree or disagree with his objectives, this is not the work of a pawn. >> they were talking about the rights of donald trump this weekend and suggests he's a demagog demagogue. they said if democrats are awill remember -- alarmed they are in a variety of areas, particularly immigration. he talks about the yuuni laterali

lateralism. it all happened, unilateral. they did the same thing with the climate deal. you can go down the list. >> you can look at saving the economy from depression. >> i think his foreign policy is going to be looked at disastrously. i think his three, i'm only bringing this up because think things were brought up that he did unilateral. i don't think there was a doubt his bungling in syria was going to hang around his legacy like iraq did. at the same time you've got bam

ma care and we'll see how that turns out. they both did very unpoplar things. >> the only thing they're selling is fear. fear is contagious and manipulating voters that can become toxic and capable of inflecting more than a few. that's what we have new. we have a clock work on a parade of candidates seeking to capitolize on a worry about where many have where the world is headed.

we, us, you and me deserve better than what these people are offering. a mix of fear that charts a negative direction for a country desefbing of prayer and hope. really good. >> i wrote that after i came out of the 10:00 mass filled with young families and old people and the bottom line is we deserve better than what we're getting in this campaign. we do. >> i think they're trying to talk about the fears americans

have. they feel when president obama gives a speech about isil he is not expressing the level of concern he feels they should have. there's a lot of criticism when he gave the press conference shortly after paris and there's a sense is he really, does he understand the gravity of the threat that isil, radical islam around the dploglobe poses? americans feel the anxiety they're not sure they're on the same page with. >> yeah. except i would argue in this country our biggest problem to everybody's safe si is guns compared to terrorism. would anybody disagree? >> no. i would disagree that the greatest danger in the future, the greatest danger in the future is and i set back politely and you had to deep

pushing. yes, there is fear. a lot of it comes from the fact that the president of the united states has an astonishing act of terrorism. when you say the biggest problem is guns in america, that's not the truth. the biggest problem now is isis is making $50 million which they can use on nuclear technology. build a dirty bomb, put it in the middle of manhattan and set it up. that's not fear modelling. that's something that the fbi and people across the government are concerned about right now. so we do have a reason to be fearful and i would think more americans are fearful of isis doing exactly that or shooting up their mall than they are. >> in response to isil and the attack the president did a national address. in response to dpuns, the

president has been intense every single time. he has never held back. he's shown quiet frankly, i think, a serious concern for the future of the country. >> okay, it is. but you have in chicago, if it's not the murder capitol of north america, it's close to it. >> the president can talk about gun control all he wants. that's not going to make americans safer from terror. again, on this gun issue, i think we should have stronger grak ground check. i've been very clear. i think people on the no fly

list should not be able to get a gun if they get that down. just talking about guns makes a president feel morally su peer i can't? it doesn't keep american's safer. >> kristin was talking about whether or not he understands the urnlt si of the situation. >> he doesn't because we're talking about terrorism. he's talking and you're talking about guns. we're talking about isis and he's talking about and you're talking about refugee to isis. it's always distract and change from the fact this president has gotten it wrong about isis from the beginning. you want to talk about isis and make americans feel better, talk like hillary clinton. talk about needing to beat and destroy isis and actually making the investment. talk about ripping the heart of isis out of syria and iraq. >> i think the president will be doing that with ash carter. he's headed to the pentagon. >> it would be really good if he

did that. did i say something that said fear? >> i'm not. you're tapping into something at that cuts through with people. >> i'm not trying to tap into something. >> are you suggesting i'm playing on people's fears? >> no. i think that it's a balance. >> you're being disingenious because you share the same fears off camera i have. >> yes. >> you come on here and suggest i repeat the same things off camera. >> i have a different point of view than you. >> you can have a different point of view. don't suggest it that i'm stoking people's fears. >> no, i'm not. >> you did. >> i'm saying the mike barnicals piece it's easy to get ramped up on the issue of terrorism. you have to be very careful we are fair in looking at what the president is doing and report on what he's doing today and other things. >> i'm not getting ramped up.

>> okay. let me go to break. >> like the overwhelming majority of democrats, independent republicans, i am concerned. >> up next, new polling shows hillary clinton may have had a tough road ahead in the general re-election. senator tim mccain joins us for that and his push for voting congress on the war against isis. we'll continue the conversation with tim when we come right back. amerivest selects the funds and manages your portfolio. is it run by robots? no no, you can talk to a person anytime. 'cause i don't trust robots. right...well, if the portfolio you're invested in doesn't perform well for two consecutive quarters, amerivest will reimburse your advisory fees for those quarters. i wasn't born yesterday. well, actually it looks like you were born yesterday. happy belated birthday. thanks. for all the confidence you need td ameritrade. you got this.

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we're in the 17th month of a war. the anniversaries past last week. congress hasn't had a debate on whether we should be at war. what congress really likes to do during this war is criticize the president but not vote to authorize, not vote to stop, not vote to amend. >> why are they got authorizing this war? >> they go back and say they have the authorizization under 2001. isn't isis a big enough threat. >> absolutely. >> the 2001 isolation says they have the chance to go after an attack. rand corporations said at best it takes legal gymnastics to use the authorizization to cover it.

sadly, i think you know the answer, no backbone. people do not want to go on the board and vote yes or no on this. >> talk about the no fly list. they add that to the people who cannot get weapons under the federal law. >> why can't that no fly list be tightened up to make sure people's due process is taken care of and then you make sure people can't buy guns. >> it's so simple. i don't know what the polling is but i bet it would be 95%. >> it's got to be. >> it's kind of a tug of war right now. i think we'll get to a place where we tighten up to no fly list. you've got to nra and a lot of

folks are going to respond saying don't do it at all. it is a gun restriction and we don't want gun restrictions. it is common sense. >> what happens when somebody's on that terror watch list? >> my worry all along is we'll eventually do the right thing because of the accumulating way to tragedy. he said it's probably going to take a tap on the homeland. why do we wait for the tragedy to happen. we're suppose to be doing this and send a message to our troops that we're behind them. that's the biggest moral deficit.

>> we live under the gun every day. >> we set up a process. we got a two year budget deal. this is some motion on things. >> do you believe we're involved in the war against isil, a generational war? >> i think it's going to take a very long time. >> where's the courage here in labelling it and voting on it? >> we've got to do it. part of the more responsibility is stand up to evil and name it. here's what we've done. for 17 months we've had a debate about isil. it took the house two days the pass the law to call them foreign enemies.

the title of the law was securing law from enemies. >> do you think we need to do more? >> i believe we need to do more. there's three problems. the war against isil, the greatest humanitarian problem, they all connect. in each one you got to do more. in isil, let's start with congress authorizing it and showing the american resolve. we've got to do that. we made a mistake by not doing the no fly zone in northern missouri. we could have done it years ago. we can still do it and it will still have an effect. on the civil war, that's going to be the key and at least the parties are back around the

table in vienna. this will continue to be a problem. it's going to be a problem anyway but it will always be a problem as long as the civil war is going on. >> thanks very much for bringing a little joy to the table. >> you can unify against congress. >> i love it. >> coming up, marco rubio talks a lot about his family biography. there's one chapter he leaves out of the speech. they're digging into the turbulent drug smuggling case. we'll talk to the author just ahead on morning joe.

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the winner of this year's heisman trophy is derrick henry. >> mom and dad, man, my mom, my best friend who brought me into this world. i want to thank you so much for being there for me.

through my struggles you heard me. any time i was struggling you were there for me. to my dad, my number one friend. kept me in sports. also there for me day after day. being young and being so supportive and keeping me in sports. i just want to thank you so much, man. my grandmother, i want to thank you so much even though you couldn't be here, i feel you in spirit. i love you so much. you always told me to keep god first and pray i make it far. i love you and i'm praying for you. >> that was alabama running back derrick henry after being awarded the heisman trophy saturday night in new york city. his grandmother gladyss watched from her hospital bed. they were praying. five generations of gladyss henry's familiar ri were representing when they got the

news. that's cool. welcome back to morning joe. it's monday, december 14th. still with us on set manager of bloomberg politics mark held prin. good to have you all on board. we tell you about the climate deal. one of the frustrations of reading the times on the washington post this weekend was that the coverage was so auditory you couldn't really figure out how this works, doesn't work, then you can go to the wall street journal and get the other side, certainly on the editorial pages. it was more of a celebration than a work of journalism one story after another. you know. >> i read a lot of them and it's still not clear what the deal was. the media likes the deals.

>> we've been talking over the weekend how hard it is to get anything done on this topic. even though you have parts of alaska and the ark ting warming four times faster than anywhere else. this is a serious issue but very hard to get anything done. so this is worth celebrating. >> it is. it's worth talking about. we can celebrate it because you get a lot of countries together that haven't engaged in the past. willie, you would like to sit down on sunday morning and say what's this deal about and i swear, the washington post who always prays was even worse than the new york times. it was so auditory. so sell bra tory that you're like okay, what's this all about? >> right. you want it spelled out pros and cons on both sides. there's a piece in the new york

times that says i think this is a frame work and blueprint. you have to go country by country and reduce these things. >> i like to get all my analy s analysis. he said of this deal. >> i'm stealing signs. >> it was kind of like the apple falling. >> whatever gets you guys to relate. >> dr. james hanson he says it's just b.s. without the abbreviation. >> really? nice. >> he wants tacts. he wants carbon tacts among other things.

>> this is a frame work. the fact you have china and india and other developing nations at the table. there was thundering applause after france's foreign minister announced the deal after two weeks of negotiations and here are the big take aways. first, nations look to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees celsius. second, a hundred billion dollars will be funneled to developing nations adapt to an mitigate nations. third, this deal is designed to revolve. they'll have to resubmit pledges by 2020. secretary of state john kerry called the deal a victory for the planet and future generations. >> it will reduce our dependency on foreign fuel and increase our security.

it will provide for our environment cleaner air, healthier, healthier people. there are all kinds of pluses and in the end it's going to be a job creator. >> well, steve, we, all the nations are looking to keep the temperature from going up more than three and a half degrees fahrenheit. the united states actually, the good news is the united states is cushing finally. we're finally reversing the trend and going in the right direction. i guess the challenge with china and india and the other countries right now. >> the question too, the political question here in the united states is what happens. it has to be revisited by 2020. every country has to recommit. we'll have a different president in 2020 than now. will it be hillary clinton, the republican president? it wasn't they were all against it, i wasn't hearing anything from the republicans.

i think john kasich's campaign came out with a statement on it. it was one republicans weren't able to touch. if you have a republican president who exceeds barack obama then the fate of the deal or the united states of this deal, it's an open question. >> from what i heard, the lea r leadership and republican party seems to be open as well. >> he said the president is making promises he can't keep. it's subject to be sledded in 13 months. that's the problem. there has to be buy in from congress. maybe that's the case. >> like every issue, this is a polarizing one.

>> the silence of the republican presidential candidate tells you they have a stronger hand than they've ever had. >> let's go seven weeks to the iowa caucuses. two new poles showing the front runner. senator ted cruz leads donald trump 31% to 21%. marco rubio is 10 and jeb bush at 6. new polls show cruz and trump tied. rubio in third. 13 and carson down at 10. both polls were conducted in the

first days of the fall out in trump's proposal to ban muslims. three of the four polls taken in iowa this month have shown cruz ahead and more worrisome for trump is cruz leads for a second choice of candidate for those serving others. this weekend trump said he'll fight to win the hawk eye state. >> i could say iowa is so important to me. i'm an evangelical, a christian, presbyteri presbyterian. i think we're going to do, we're doing well with the evangelicals and by the way, i do like ted cruz but not a lot of evangelicals come out of cuba in all fairness. it's true. >> what does that mean?

what does that have to do with anything. >> i like him nonetheless. >> it's interesting donald trump trying to declare himself align with the evangelicals. >> he seemed to declare himself a born again apiscopalian. >> i can tell you my dad is. i don't think there's such a thing unless there's somebody with a wine bottle. anyway, when's the last time trump went to church?

>> i don't have that data. >> rubio is the front runner. >> ted cruz leads in one state and donald trump in the other. >> he also jumps back into first place after being in second place over ben carson. the difference between ted cruz in second place, ted cruz is built for speed. he's built to excel. he's built to last. you look at the money. you look at his on the ground work. you look at the fact he's one of the smartest conservatives in washington. i could never foresee ben carson winning iowa and south carolina.

for the first time we have a two person race. >> why? >> ted cruz has money. he campaigned in the sec.

>> there's people who don't like the government surveillance of issues. he has the ability because of his fundraising to survive some early losses. some of these other candidates do not. as you've said several times, you can identify 30 states where ted cruz could win the caucuses or the primaries. >> really? >> 30 states. marco rubio, name an early state he could win. >> or a late state. the biggest question is does trump find a frame to go after cruz and change the dynamic back in his favor and the things he's tried so far, this thing about you don't see a lot of evangelicals coming out of cuba. what does he say. >> in all fairness. >> i like him nonetheless. >> trump on fox yesterday said cruz doesn't get along with people in congress and that shows he's no good. a lot of people would say good

for you. he's going to come back and say he's not likable. you want to see the guy on tv for eight year sns. >> trump is going to say people like me, i'm a likable guy. cruz is not likable. that's going to be the big frame. i don't know that that works especially now that cruz is the most favorable in iowa. >> the question to me is if cruz wins iowa and wins the evangelical vote. south carolina, 65% down there, there could be a natural fit. the question to me becomes new hampshire. if donald trump can win new hampshire, you have cruz coming out of iowa and trump coming out of new hampshire, i don't see

how they jump start the campaign. the question to me is can a nontrump vote come behind somebody in new hampshire. if it's rubio, christie, whoever. if not, i look at the race. >> they establish so much time trying to build a stop trump movement they're going to have to think about a stop cruz movement as well. >> the only thing is somebody wins iowa and somebody else wins new hampshire and you make the argument it was all pressed. right now, i don't see that happening. trump is more, trump is and this is the iowa situation shouldn't cloud or make cloudy the fact that donald trump is stronger than ever before than the nbc news wall street journal poll. he's stronger than before in the poll. in new hampshire he's in the 30s and stronger than ever before in south carolina. a poll came out in georgia and in the 40s.

he can go state by state by state and donald trump is at the high water mark in every state except iowa right now. so a lot of people are now immediately doing what they do with carson. trump is going to lose in that state. now they're saying that about cruz. >> still ahead, governor andrew cuomo standing by. he joins us just ahead. first, nbcs chuck todd is here. first, a piece from an episode of marco rubio's past. you're watching morning joe. we'll be right back. opportunity has no slow season. no off-days, or downtime. opportunity is everything you make of it.

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my father became a bartender. my mother a cashier, a maid, a k-mart stock clerk. they never made it big but they were successful. two immigrants with little money or education found stable jobs,

owned a home, retired with security and gave all four of their children a life better than their own. >> that was republican presidential candidate senator marco rubio. >> that explains so much. we will not say it on air. chuck todd said something. >> you can't do that. it's terrible. >> we're talking about football. >> okay. >> all right. reflecting on his family biography while launching his white house bid in april. there's one story from his early life he's not sharing and joining us for that -- and moderator of meet the press, chuck todd. do you ever take a day off? ever? >> i appreciate you saying that. >> that's crazy. >> thank you so much for being with us today. it's so interesting, the rubio

team is actually one of the most fenced in in the history of modern american politics. they went crazy when this story first came out. there was a lot of push back yesterday. i read your story and i was actually moved about it was a story of redemption, a story of a wife who stood by her husband of tough times. it was a story of a family who stuck together. there were a lot of things that inspired me from your story. >> it's a poignant episode in the history of marco rubio. this arrest for this family member of his, his brother-in-law, was devastating for the family. his sister had to move out of the house because the house was seized by the government and marco himself has talked about coming home and seeing his sister curled up on a fold out couch and she's pregnant and he saw really up close the effects of crime on a family. >> but also, the picture that

we're showing of orlando being taken off, he served his time, got out of jail and he's lived a good life and i'm just wondering, why the huge push back from the rubio family? is there more here we don't know about? >> well, there are some questions that senator rubio's campaign did not want to answer when we approached them about this story and one of those questions we had was whether orlando, the brother-in-law caught up in the drug case, had gave financial support. the senator's campaign declined to answer the question yes or no. >> it might be they don't know, the answer could be yes or no but another argument why they don't want to talk about this, every family has hardship or

something that's devastating that happens. they don't want to talk about it. i understand he's running for president and therefore, i guess it's fair game. it might be that they just don't want to talk about it because it's deeply personal. anybody? >> that's probably human nature there. at the same time he played the clip coming in. biography is such an essential point. he's making his life story and family story such an essential part of his campaign. at that point people are going to take a look at your family. >> there's no doubt it's an uncomfortable episode. i would point out in the senator's own memoir, he mentioned him like 15 times. it's not like he's denying a deep connection between him as a young man and his brother-in-law caught up in this drug case. he even talks about his fondest childhood femly being a

christmas spent at his brother-in-law's house. so it's not as if he's never spoken about this person. it's just controlling the narrative. >> it smells like timing with me. that's right, about the narrative. it sounds like the rubio campaign overworried about somebody getting stereo typed about south florida. i grow up down there. it is in that time very close friend in high school who got caught up in the wrong things. it was frankly too easy to get caught up. so it is, if you grew up in miami long enough you have a friend and relative, it's for better or worse but you get and people do want to stereo type south florida and want to stereo type people. maybe that has something to do with it. meanwhile, he says that's the concern from camp rubio? >> no, i think they're sensitive

about the privacy of these family members and his brother-in-law and sister who live with his mother and still remain close with the family, his nephews have worked for his campaigns. currently, he has a nephew who does video for his presidential campaign. so i think that it's just a sensitive episode. there's a lot of proximity between him as a person and as a candidate. and it's just an uncomfortable topic for them. >> it's willie, i know one of the other questions you hope to get answered, the campaign didn't want to ants is whether or not rubio when he served in florida took steps to reduce the sentence of his brother-in-law. did you find evidence of that? >> no, we did not. a lot of those reports are not public reports. parole records are not available

to be reviewed by the media or public. i will add after our story posted online saturday night that the campaign who initially refused to say whether he had taken any steps to help his brother-in-law get a reduced sentence came back to us and said he had not. >> and by the way, the governor then, jeb bush, so if he had done any special favors, we would have known about it. >> the bush campaign would have e-mailed us 30 times saying this is the correct, exactly. it would have hit a long time ago. i'll say at the end what i said in the very beginning. to me, it's sort of an inspiring story of redemption, second chances and i don't see how this has a political image. >> he's in trouble and you don't abandon somebody whose in trouble. you assume family rallies around. >> i can see how for the sister

and mother it's painful. please don't talk about it. >> they certainly had to know though. >> you bring in people that's in the a part of this. >> you had to know running for president of the united states the central focus. it is. every speech is all about it. >> we've seen other candidates do that before. the biography. >> i'm saying though, that's why. >> right. >> more so than let's say donald trump who other than being the god fearing evangelical that he's been for 69 years, he doesn't really bring it to life that much. when's the last time trump went to church? >> i don't know. >> i thought he was asking it to david brody. >> the correct answer is this coming sunday. >> remember, he said he likes the little cracker thing. we know that.

>> he loves the bible and they said what's your favorite passage? >> he has a bible his mother gave him. very sweet. all right. chuck todd. >> great. >> thank you very much. >> thank you so much. >> pleasure to be with you. >> coming up, the governor of new york is our guest. he joins the discussion straight ahead on morning joe. take the zantac it challenge! pill works fast? zantac works in as little as 30 minutes. nexium can take 24 hours. when heartburn strikes, take zantac for faster relief than nexium or your money back. take the zantac it challenge. came out today thousands of people to run the race for retirement. so we asked them... are you completely prepared for retirement? okay, mostly prepared?

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this is the state of 9/11 to allow believe who you believe have terrorist connections to buy guns is so irresponsible that people must be living in this state of denial. >> that was new york governor andrew yesterday joining senator chuck to the understand that the federal government close the terror gap and keep terrorist from being able to purchase guns in new york state. sounds simple, doesn't it. joining us now, andrew. good to have you on board, governor. >> so governor, what's the possibility? >> good morning. >> good morning. i'm sorry. we have a delay. what's the possibility of this getting implemented in new york state and also done in a way

that protects the due process of those that may be put on the list? >> well, joe, we are ready. that's what we announced yesterday with senator. i can't believe washington doesn't take action on this. i understand the grid lock and the political season and all the silliness but this is too serious. people get it. americans get it. the people in this state get it. 90% of the people in this state in a poll today believe there may be a possible terrorist attack in the future. it's just common sense, joe. this is not democrat republican, you can't argue it. if the nation has information that says this person may be a terror suspect they should use the information. look, we can come up with a way to protect individual rights and have a process.

i'm sure there's a mistake on the list. you have a process to mix the mistake. that doesn't mean you don't use the list. >> gabby has an incredible piece in u.s.a. today. she talks about getting shot herself. she goes i know this week congress will do. she also talks about three years ago today, sandy hook where kindergartene kindergarteners, another year since the tragedy passes i sometimes struggle to find the hope that's carried me along my path. i know this week congress will do everything they've done since they were murdered in their

classrooms, nothing at all. do governors like you need to step up more on the issue of guns? >> well, mika, i don't know what else i can do. new york passed the toughest gun law in the nation. i dealt with the politics here. i understand the politics in washington and i understand the politics of the nra. they're afraid of it, the elected officials. i voted in the toughest gun law in the country and pay the political price. new york has a rural population and is a big second amendment population. i pay a political price. you can see it in the polls and in my rating. you can't govern that way. i believe the people in washington are going to get it. i believe the american people are going to get it. i would love to be able to say on this nice monday morning that don't worry. san bernardino was a once in a lifetime and it's not going to

happen again. i don't believe that. i believe we're seeing an increase in frequency in terrorism and seeing what the middle east lived with for a long time. they were proximate. the internet social media found a way to get around the oceans very quickly. it's not 6,000 miles away anymore. it's in san bernardino. it's in paris. i think this is going to be the turning point for the american people. you have a right to own a gun. i am a gun owner. not for the mentally ill, not for people who commit crimes and not for people who you know have our suspected terrorist. the gao did a study over the past 10 years. 2,000 suspected terrorist went the buy a gun in the united states. 90% of them bought the gun. i mean, this is madness. this is not politics.

you can't argue this. it's madness. as joe said before the only argument is maybe there's a m e mistake. fine, have a process to fix a mistake on the list. you show me a list that doesn't have a mistake. >> fgovernor, one of the tools employees in the war against tobacco to get people to stop smoking cigarettes is just tax it. is there anything to put a tax on guns. on weapons that would almost make it prohibitive to buy the

weapon? there's too many guns in existence already. he wanted a background check on the am in addition or a tax. he thought if you stop is of in addition is guns would be wor worthless i don't know that a state by state gun is going to work. i have guns coming in every day from the southern states. it makes the guns more valuable when you bring them in. it's going to have to be a national response. i think it's only a matter of time. i think the nra does not represent the people of the country or the gun owners of the

country. congress which is so bullish on security and protection and the military and fighting terrorism and their row bust and ready to go but you would allow terrorist who are suspected of terrorism in this country buy a gun. it makes no sense. ultimately, even washington logic wins. >> the national response, the failure to have you can see is one of the greatest frustrations president obama has. you say you understand the politics in washington. i'm curious when you look at president obama on this, is there anything else you think he can or should have done over the last six or seven years that could produce the national

response you're talking about? >> frankly, i don't. i think he's spoken to it. i don't think it's real for the american people yet. when you want to talk about the lost moment when joe brought up the tobacco industry, people forget that last year the administration when gore was running for re-election, the state's had followed the tobacco model and the states had sued the gun manufactures. what we did during clinton, i was the head secretary at the time, we brought the gun lawsuits together and offered a global settlement to gun manufactures. smith and wesson signed an agreement that would have changed the way guns were made. they had something called smart guns, fingerprint technology.

president bush became president and the supreme court passed that legislation and authorized the gun dealers to be immune from civil litigation. the only industry in the united states and that was ashame and a lost moment because they could have done it back then. you would have saved hundreds of thousands of lives. i don't see what else president obama could have done. i think this frankly, the new terrorism which is going to create a new normal for this country, i can that's going to be the piece that moves public opinion. >> three years since sandy hook

and you wonder if it's going to take. >> thank you so much for being on the show this morning. up next, he shares one of the most infamous last names on the planet. cousin to syrian's dictator here with the push for democracy and freedom in syria. how he's helping to call attention to the regime's fatality. we'll be right back. when a moment spontaneously turns romantic, why pause to take a pill? and why stop what you're doing to find a bathroom?

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♪ it's the final countdown!

♪ ♪ the final countdown! if you're the band europe, you love a final countdown. it's what you do. if you want to save fifteen percent or more on car insurance, you switch to geico. it's what you do. 47 past the hour. joining us is the director for freedom in syria. also with us from london nbc news chief global correspondent bill neely. good to have you both. you are the cousin. tell us about your family story. you all fled. >> yes, we left when i was 9-years-old. my father trying to promote

democracy in the middle east, not just in syria. there was a difference in the party and it led to a stand off between both and my father then fled the france. >> really. >> and you were just telling me you tried to go back in 1994 at the age of 18 and what happened? >> yes. after an argument i had with my cousin i was coming to study in boston and they tried to assassinate me at the airport and the next day i left to boston and it didn't work out and i left to boston. >> you just mentioned that like, that's incredible. >> what's the best case as you see it for syria in the coming years? >> honestly, i don't see it. i'm pessimistic because we have not been doing anything trying to improve the stitituation.

we have to understand what syria is. it's made up of a beautiful mosaic of people. it's majority against minority. the minority makes up 45-50%. you have the kurds and the christians and jews. altogether, they make up approximately 45-50%. those people need to see there's a viable attentive. that's something they haven't seen. we haven't been able to show them that. why? they have the mediators unfortuna unfortunately, who do not believe in human rights and their their values, international values of freedom and everything else. they are the ones who have been taking care of trying to unify the opposition, the same opposition disregarding many fashions of the syrian people. many groups have been disregarded and we keep repeating the same mistakes.

>> bill neely in london. bill. >> yes, i must say i would share his pessimism. there have been glimmers of hop. >> i must say i share his cynicism. there's no peace there. there have been talks in riyadh and interestingly one of the groups there is a hardline islam faction. folks, the kurds weren't invited to those talks in riyadh. there is talk of a big conference in early january, possibly in new york. but because the table is there, because they built build it doesn't mean they will come. at the minute all i see in syria is stalemate. we saw ten weeks ago when the russians entered the fray. it was as it everything changed and actually nothing has changed. all the sides are both too strong and too weak.

too strong to be defeated, too weak to win and what you've got is stalemate. the last time we spoke was three or four years ago and i don't think much has changed apart from the death of a quarter million of your fellow citizens. >> so does syria get divided at the end? many people are talking about iraq getting split into three parts. you've got barack obama who said it's moscow and ted cruz who said it's none of our business. we can't even decide here whether there's a way with assad going forward. does syria get split in. >> i really hope not. as long as we keep it, as long as the russians are now in syria, as long as the regime has the support of iran and russia, i think it's have i difficult for us to talk about bashar

assad has to go. we have to be mag matic and understand what is going on on the ground. now ne have a submarine, they're building another airport. i think we have to thing that we had on and bring to the in a neutral country an opposition that is willing to share our values and they have to commit and sign to it, agreeing on equality of all citizens and the rule of law regardless of of religion, secretary, ethnic group and gender. that will disall move forward. >> thank you. we'll turn back to politics with

michael warren. plus what's trying cnbc in the business before the bell. are we getting a hate hike? "morning joe" is back in a moment. they come into this world ugly and messy. ideas are frightening because they threaten what is known. they are the natural born enemy of the way things are. yes, ideas are scary, and messy and fragile. but under the proper care, they become something beautiful.

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' cording to a new report, jeb bush's campaign and the super pac supporting him have spent more than $30 million on ad for him. from the looks of those ads, it

seems like things aren't going great for jeb. [ laughter ] >> coming up next -- >> those commercials are awesome. i always want to rescue an animal when i kwach one. >> do you want it rescue jeb? >> no. actually -- >> a look at what's fueling the senator's surge tomorrow. back in a moment. ♪

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>> but i can beat these guys, dr. ben carson. i can barely hear him when he talks. that's not going to work when you have to go to china or azerbaijan, where you have to talk loudly so they can understand. not it mention, he's some kind of brain surgeon and i have to tell him something, running the country is not brain surgeon. rubio and cruz, sounds like a miami law firm. if you've been injured on the job, call rubio and cruz.

and jeb, oh, boy. you got to admit us a pretty good plot twist that i turned out to be the smart one. of course, i wish you would have asked me about the exclamation point on the end of his name. look, i don't like the taste of broccoli but it doesn't get any tastier if you call it broccoli! >> how great is he? >> that was great. it goes on. >> show saver. >> haven't seen that character in a long time either. >> oh, i know. it makes you kind of miss george bush. >> weirdly. >> what an ironic mott twist, he says, that i ended up being the smart one. good morning. it's monday, december 14th. oh, my god, it's getting close,

isn't it? >> with us is mark halperin, and mike barnicle. >> we saw the veteran at willie's christmas party. and your dad, wow. >> and republican kristen andon. >> that was quite a holiday party outfit your dad had on. >> iconic. >> a lot of polls came out this weekend. nothing like a december holiday weekend filled with data.

>> isn't it interesting the same thing that happened when carson went up in one state, donald trump was over and over. now cruz goes ahead in one state and it's the end of donald trump. if you're scoring at home, it's cruz 1, trump 49. got a ways to go. i guess part of the problem is trump himself, if he's ahead in 49 states, he obsesses over the state he's losing in. and by the way, he'll be very upset he said he's losing in

one. >> it's not like trump is going to concede iowa. i think he can come back in iowa. i don't think it's a forgone conclusion. >> oh, yeah. and if he wins iowa, think think he thinks and a lot of us think he wins if all. >> the wall street journal shows donald trump back in the country. but ted cruz is just 5 points behind at 22% after gaining 12 points since late october. marco rubio is in third at 15% and another major droveoff for ben carson, falling 18 points after leading just section weeks ago. >> can you believe that? >> yes, i can. >> be what's the campaign saying? >> national security. that's j he took that quick trip to jordan. he's going to have to find a way

back. he still has 1 1% of the vote. imagine if he collapsed down further and cruz was able to get a lot of those voters. and cruz has got i don't know moment and taken his point away. >> which begs the question, what time would have been -- >> no question. i still think he may rule his time out. about that's literally true in many. >> winning iowa, it never changes. organize, organize, organize and get hot at the end. ted cruz is the only one doing

both those things. >> the future narrowing dough ben carson still attracts 13% and jeb bush down a %. that's interesting. there are only two republican candidates in the top five, rubio and bush, that you call less than one third of the overall vote. think about that. this republican party a radically different -- is radically different than the primary voters even four years ago. it's just changed really dramatically. >> not only that but as we were talking off air, the level of sophistication of some of these

campai campaign. >> there as it they tell the person walking up to the door how to speak to the person walking up to the door. >> wow. >> they subdivide people into four subgoups, but if there is then talk guns. if they are snow ic is nervous, christian, about the federal government getting too much information about individuals, they actually are a campaign that is based on being as

intrusive to gather data and then want psychological profiles of the names of the people whose doors they knock on. >> every time we swipe a credit card, send a tweet, we're creating a new data point that someone can tap into. i think most of what is driving cruz's numbers here is that he appeals to the sorts of voters who are very likely to vote in republican primaries. and that's sort of always been the challenge when when it comes to figuring out what's going on with the polls and is donald trump's really as real as it looks. of course there's really something there. but cruz's voters look most like the people we expect to show up at places like the iowa walk us.

is drp reshaping to bring in like and i think he will bring in people that haven't voted before. this is one of the things about rubio's campaign. people are always asking why are we so tough on rubeos' campaign? mark and i have said there's no a natural consistency there. you can't find a state where he can win. i really do think, willie, we have for the first time a two-person race. >> well, ted cruz will be interesting to see is he more -- is he santorum from 2012, is he

huckabee from 2008? in other words, a guy who plays really, really strong in iowa and maybe that's the end of the road. i think if you look at his campaign the way it's built, he's built stronger than that. his base of support is bigger. iowa for me would be not -- would not be an outlier for him. >> you've got iowa where he's very competitive. then you skip new hampshire. maybe he finishes second or third in new hampshire. right now it's still trump country but those are all states we can envision cruz winning. i can't envision trump winning, can't envision rubio win it.

>> he's campaigned in those southern states. after the tour he's going back to the southern states and doing a tour of them. he's appealing to gun onners, he's appealing to tea partiers, he's appealing to anti-washington sentiment and rand paul constituents. >> can i ask a question about marco rubio. they're mad at him in new hampshire because he tonight go there enough. they're mad at him in d.c. i read these stories that the guy sit around on weekends and watches football games. even running for a lowly congressional seat, i didn't watch a football game for two

years. if he not in iowa and he's not in new hampshire and he's not in the capital, where is he? >> let get a lojack on hem? they called him the republican savior before he stn even foot -- >> the question is where is marco rubio? >> i'm just asking where is he. >> he is as wm. >> what do they tell youer that doing? >> top establishment finisher in iowa -- >> no, no, their tack tex.

what is he doing? >> not peak too early. >> why are you so tough on marco? i don't. >> the reason i think marco rubio has a chance down the road to be very strong in these early states is becausy doesn't draw his support just from one type of republican voters. when you take a look at favorable/ub favorable ratings, folks like jeb bush and chris christie do well among the moderates and struggle. now that may be a flawed theory

but i think that's the theory behind why so many people blef he could be the one that ultimately emerms. because he's not a nonstarter with any segment of the part. that's sort of a big thing to go in with. zit the opposite of ted cruz, who is narrowing down. he's focused, being disciplined. this is a generalist argument. >> well, woo mayor many pap. except for one. marco rubio performs best nationally. while ben carson is also inside the margin of error with a slight edge on clinton, 47-4. ted cruz is down 3 points to clinton as dm.

>> she's got no strength. these shoos got no stamina. everything she does is like theatrical. oh, donald trump said this. it sort of interesting. i watched her last night. donald trump -- looks like she practices in front of a mirror all night. she says i'm dangerous. she killed hundreds of thousands of -- >> killed -- >> look what happened. the middle east is a total disaster under her. >> a new poll from iowa shows hillary clinton's lead in the single digits. she lead bernie sanders by 9 points, 38 to 2 mike barnicle,

over the weekend, bernie press saying he's not getting enough press time. now he's within single digit of hillary in iowa. >> plus in new hampshire, beeny it ands are f mystified by the process on both side to tell you the truth, especially the republican side. and the cruz aspect of the campaign you were talking about, joe, i'm wondering and maybe someone here can answer my question, does his support in the primary, his growing support in the primaries, especially in iowa, does it translate to the fall to a general election? >> no. >> no. it does not. i am shocked -- i'm shocked and this is the sort of thing that right-wng blogs are get very

angry about, i'm just telling you, i said it about romney when they said romney was going to lose, they got really, really different category. i am shocked by how the go if this doop south, southern baptist. i ask people who i expect to say yes who answer hell no, hell no. i will never vote for donald trump or hillary clinton, i'll vote for drunkthat fernando. they think it an act. they think it staged. >> that's why the outtakes on

youtube --. had this is. in. >> joey and i were talking about it this week where we were talking about some rel it was who we were sure would love trump and love cruz. >> oh. well, i know who you're talking about. >> no, you don't. joey called -- >> those are the same people that -- >> who are you going to support in and they laughed and said we will vote for hillary clinton. we will vote for the first democrat in our life before we vote for ted cruz or donald trump. >> don't shoot the messenger. i hear it anecdotally. i've been saying stuff on this year for sure. >> still ahead, ted cruz tries

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two new polls show ted cruz surging in iowa. donald trump preempted the latest iowa polling with an attack on cruz. >> well, look, he's from texas. to the best of my knowledge, there's a lot of oil in texas, right?

so he gets oo lot of money from the oily companies and he's against ethanol. if ted cruz is against ethanol, how does he win in iowa? >> i do like check van foul it's through. true. what does that man? >> it means he's looking for the right wedge. >> what dos that even moon. >> evangelical. he's. >> he's headed toward saying cruise is inle ijible because he was born in canada. >> speaking of cruz, we have to say this really quickly, you think he can expand and he has proven that -- ted cruz has

prove i don't know he can convert people that didn't look him before. you think i'm being a little too tough on ted cruz in the general election. >> could he win a sweeping electoral college victory? no. could he within pa. >> my attempt has been to bear hug both of them and smother us with love. i believe gravity will both of those campaigns down. i think the lion's share of those supporters come to us. >> i don't think he's qualified to be president. >> why not? >> because i don't think he has the right temperament, i don't think he's got the right judgment. >> what's wrong with his tem pra

meant? you a little and scream and call people liars and not be able to cajole and get along with people. he'll never get anything done. that's the problem with ted. >> cruz responded with a tweet, quote, in honor of my friend donald trump and good hearted maniacs everywhere, linking to the theme song from the 1983 movie "flashes dance." willie geist. that's the politico, my friend, which this is what hoose done every time in the last week. as he said exless it he can stayed aside because he believes if and when trump goes away, those people come to him. >> and it the best strategy,

too, the best when i can he's which we had suggested it had do. >> cruz's biggest asset is he is very smart, very sophisticated religious lie is the way the ought to. >> the question is can he coop turning the or keek. >> no. then -- >> i have to say when he doesn't respond to trump's attacks and he's laughing them off, he actually only grows in stature. at some point donald trump start

making him strong because the guys that ahead in 49 states is attacking who has been ahead in one day tom 20 so what donald trump does, if cruz just laughs hem off, kruj's ice u it. i ignore him because drm doct doctodoctor. in the more that trump attacks cruz, the stronger he makes cruz look. the more scared he looks of cruz. >> roobio spent weeks attacking cruz and cruise has not gone down up, he's only at hello. >> just when i thought i was

out, they keep pull me be peacekeeper in snflkt winning offer voters in iowa one impercent naegs at a time. kasie hunt joins us with that in a moment. in panama, which is a city of roughly 2 million people, we are having 5,000 new cars being sold every month. this is a very big problem for us with respect to fast and efficient transportation. it's kind of a losing proposition to keep going this way.

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32 past the hour. the cruz campaign is using

statisticians and behavioral psychologists. and they use a custom iphone app to decide whether people they meet might be a relaxed leader, temperamental conservative, true believer or stoic traditionalist. >> so it fascinating. if you look at the list, temperamental conservative, the article says they talk guns. if they have a stoic traditionalist, they talk obama care i believe isn't there an inherent contradiction in that approach? candidates talking about federal government intrusion, privacy rights and -- >> yes, there is that.

>> it's skillful but it's scary. >> for a -- for a libertarian/conservative to be doing this is ironic. >> it voluntary and it not the government so it dirch. >> it is. >> i don't know that. >> it's big data and magazine subscriptions and shows that they watch. they follow him around on google and get information, right? >> it not the dpft, it's the priority oobt rmt i touched the

site, my phone number on my phone, my private number and now 250 moving companiesy tall it not voluntary. >> did ted cruz call you? >> tell n do you explain the rise? >> we're all very familiar with that fiery ted cruz, who is a member of the senate involved in the senate shutdown. i've been following him on the campaign trail and it pretty clear he's trying to show voters a very different side of himself. >> if you want someone to grab a beer with, i may not be that guy. >> ted cruz doesn't exactly have a reputation for being warm and fuzzy. >> we will carpet bomb them into

oblivion. >> but on the ka pain trail, cruz has been showing if not quite a softer side, a newer one. when an iowa pastor asked. >> what you got here, that's worth living for! >> true love! >> true love! >> liar! >>, that sfrp. >> told say that name. >> i can't hear you! >> he also loves using hollywood lines. >> let me quote jerry mcguire, "you had me at hello." >> "you had me at hello." >> just when i thought i was

ou out. >> it but hoof recently caught on tape questioning trump's judgment. >> people are looking for who is prepared to a commander in chief, who understand the threats we face, who am i comfortable having their finger on the button. now that's a question of strength but it also a question of judgment. >> the question is how the cheerful campaign trail version of ted crews willy act from the new onslot many. >> cruz's team absolutely knows if they have one hurdle they have to get over here, it convincing voters his personality is a little warmer and welcoming.

. a lot of pop were very open potentially for voting for him but said, i don't know, i don't know, it have just something about his persona. >> very interesting. i look forward to getting her states of play going. because she talks to people. kasie, thank you. >> and michael warren now. first of all, he does a great smithers. i am just going to say. that was pretty good.

>> cruz has replaced carson. has a lot longer staying power. ted cruz being at the top in iowa goes to show you how well positioned he is for the nomination, i think. donald trump has really sort of thrown everything off in new hampshire. you've got all the establishment candidates there jockeying for position. so ted cruz being number one against donald trump, i think you guys were talking about earlier the gop establishment. it really got to be looking at cruz and thinking he's sort of a better option than going with this mainian donald trump. >> yeah. saw the maniac tweet. >> do your readers -- do you

think they're perfectly happy with ted cruz as the nominee? or do they want to find a few? >> we ran a few straw pools we're got murky owe it more that middle of the road, people who have voted for democrats maybe in the past. that's where trump does well. he has also has a ceilingock he's battled out of, tlp that is. and those nbc poll numbers go to show when conservatives start going to the polls in high wa and dump i think being down tn

pb fcht so i don't think conservatives are scared of donald trump. certainly not our readers -- excuse me, of ted cruz. they love ted cruz. >> it's interesting, there was a column about cruz and it says in the column, what i've heard about ted cruz before. he's clearly brilliant but when you talk to about him at very stages of his, can't temperature anybody else out of a phone book. i'd rather it have person

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. >> it's 45 past. time now for business before the bell. sara ice i don't know joins us. >> we have a two-day for meeting where we're likely to see the first interest rate hike from

the for the federal reserve. sharp multi-year moves across different markets. for instance, the price of oil continues to plummet below $35 a barrel. it great because the national gas price average is about to fall below $2 but that causes a lot of stress in our economy, we woo and it spill offer over into the stock market. we're coming off the worst week for u.s. stock in four months and it looks like another down day. a lot of volatility with this malk central bank deseg looming on wednesday. >> thank you very much. up next, the new year is right

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we just walk in, we yell "you have 3 seconds, go!" . >> very interesting. >> i love "saturday night live" ". the 30th edition of the "economist" compilation of predictions is out now. it's very good to you have on board this morning. you have predictions. >> i'm wondering if what we saw yesterday in france, though, with the defeat of the nationalist party doesn't serve as possibly a predictor of what will happen to this country in 2016. a lot of noise from the floor from nationalists and then a women per at the end of the day. >> i think it could be. what you have is the anti-populist parties pulling together, in some cases the socialist starting down and letting the center right have a free run at the national front.

and it's also a precursor of what you get in 2017 election. but you'll hear a lot about come what may in the year ahead. >> you say the year can be summed up in three words, woes, women and wins. women, you say they'll be at the heart of many decisions of 2016. >> yes. obviously we're about to have the interest rate decision from the federal reserve. and what happens after that is going to be crucial, how far and how fast interest rates rise. hillary clinton is certainly the candidate to beat in the election here and angela america el in you're is the absolute question. >> isn't that me remarkable, central figures in national pie

you have possibly two new women presidents in high want and the philippines? >> what's the prognosis for saudi arabia? >> the longer that goes on, the more strain it puts saudi arabia and other oil producing companies under clearly. but it also is a big stimulus. in europe, the been fit from n pen. >> but you talked about middle east woes. how much worse can it get? >> i think it can carry on being pretty bad and we've been at the forefront if europe of the migrant influx. i suspect that will continue. i would expect many, many more hundreds of thousands of people

coming europe's way, putting incredible strain on the politics europe. >> so you have guest contributors helping with these predictions. you hear from christine leguarde, the ceo of uber about the sharing economy and also roger goodell has it -- >> well, it's super bowl 50. it's a landmark. big sporting year in -- >> beg challenges as well? >> but also the nfl going global as it looks to the future, talking about regular season games outside the united states. >> what's going to be the real football story of the year? >> you man proper football? >> well, in france -- >> who is going to be the beg story there? >> i think first of all just safety will be the story there. after what happened with

international games being postponed, that tournament will be powerful if it goes off without incident. i would have to say england going to try and -- >> as they always do. the kmi's world in 201 is out now. thank you very much. >> by the way, will mourinho still be running chel at this at 2016. >> they're right there near the drop nope. ♪ my lack of education hasn't hurt me none

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and good morning to you. i'm jose diaz-balart. the next republican debate, the first since a sizable shake-up in a crowded field. donald trump's lead tips to grow nationally but there's a new face leading in a crucial state.

peter alexander and mark halperin are both with us. peter good morning. >> reporter: good morning to you. in las vegas. it's a cool one out but it's going to be hot on that debate stage. the key matchup will be between donald trump and ted cruz right now. ted cruz has benefitted by ben carson cratering, specifically among those very conservative supporters. as you look at it, the real question most are focused on is will cruz knock off trump? this morning donald trump and ted cruz are dominating the republican field. polls show trump still leading nationalwide but cruz gaining. with cruz be surging,