christmas, "star wars" and drones, why not just get a "star wars" drone? it's a millennium falcon drone. >> oh, boy. >> there you go. >> well, the other day i said my kids would not get hover boards, but the millennium falcon drone is quite a possibility. >> i hope they're not watching. >> yeah, turn the tv off. olivia, thanks so much. that's going to do it for this hour of msnbc live. i'm kate snow. "mtp daily" starts right now. >> if it's monday, economic anxiety drove the public's mood for most of 2015, but now, to quote our pollster, that has abruptly changed to fear. brand-new numbers coming at you. this is "mtp daily," and it starts right now. ♪ >> good evening from new york. i'm steve kornacki in for chuck

todd. we have brand-new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll numbers, just out as of 5:00 p.m. eastern time. they show that terrorism and national security are now the american public's number one concern. after san bernardino, 40% of americans say that national security and terrorism should be the top priority for the federal government. that is up 19 points. doubling essentially since april. again, 19 points since just this spring. job creation and economic growth. meanwhile, these were the nations top concerns in the spring. now they amount to only the top concern for 23% of americans. that's a six-point drop since the spring. and there's a significant part swran divide to these numbers. 58% of republicans say that national security and terrorism are their top concerns. that's compared to 26% of democrats. and 33% of democrats call the economy their top issue. compared to just 12% of republicans.

the renewed focus on security and terrorism is changing the 2016 race. and it's pulling president obama's approval rating down. just 43% now say they approve of the job he's doing as president. that's his lowest level in more than a year, since right before the 2014 midterm elections. and just 37% say they approve of the president's handling of foreign policy. just 34% approve of his handling of isis. and only 20% of the public believe this country is headed in the right direction. compare that to a whopping 70% of americans who think we are on the wrong track. this is all against that pessimistic backdrop, the upcoming holidays, and with national security taking center stage in the 2016 race. president obama is planning multiple terror-related appearances. today he spoke at the pentagon after meeting with his national security council. >> the point is, isil leaders cannot hide, and our next

message to them is simple, you are next. every day we destroy as well more of isil's forces. their fighting positions, bunkers, staging areas, heavy weapons, bomb-making areas and training camps. isil's lost thousands of miles of square miles it once controlled in syria and it will lose more. >> president obama also noted that defense secretary ash carter is heading to the middle east to try to bolster the anti-isis coalition. and secretary of state john kerry will be in moscow tomorrow to meet with his russian counterpart for another round of anti-isis talks. senator marco rubio was an exclusive guest of chuck on sunday's "meet the press." part of their conversation focused on national security and fighting isis. here's a brand-new part of that interview. it's not been seen on television. >> you've used the phrase class

of civilizations. president bush went out of his way to say, don't call it a clash of civilizations. do you regret that phrase? >> no. if you interpret that phrase as meaning world war with islam and all muslims, it's not what i'm saying, and it's ridiculous. >> that's what isis might do, take your phrase and say, aha, see, the americans want a clash of civilizations. >> they may warp anything we say. but it's a clash between isis, their vision of the future and what they're promising, this global caliphate, in which everyone must agree with their theology or die. and the rest of the world, who refuse to live under those rules. it's a war between us, the peace and freedom-loving people of this planet and this radical ideology that's taken root not only in isis, but al qaeda and

the other groups in the region. it is a clash between us. it's not just the apocalyptic vision of the future -- >> let's say, you successfully get rid of assad. there's a transition government, but it's shaky. it's shaky in iraq. obviously libya hasn't even been able to be stood up. isn't it going to take nation-building of some sorts by the united states to keep some stability there? >> that's a term that's thrown around loosely. there were people ready to take hold in libya. number one, the civil war lasted too long. we didn't start that. the libyan people was. my argument back then, if this becomes a protracted civil war, not only are people going to get killed, but militias are going to rise up and it's going to be hard to disband them after the fact and without a stable government you will leave a vacuum and will be filled by jihadists and this administration, along with the international community, after

gadhafi was removed to help the people in libya, to help themselves establish a firm government, not a nation-building, but a government that can provide basic services. >> some argue that was the mistake in iraq. >> well, there were a lot of mistakes in iraq. [ all speak at once ] >> -- was clearly problematic. what's interesting, a lot of the former ba'ath party officials and army generals are providing the military guidance and expertise to isis today. if you look back at japan, mcarthur had to decide whether to try the emperor for war crimes. he made the commemdation if you get rid of the emperor, you'll have the loss of civil servants what they have identified with saddam hussein's party, robbed iraq of people that knew how to govern. >> so assad has to go, but correct me if i'm wrong, you'd be okay with keeping his government in place in some form, just to keep the stability? >> again, it can't be someone

who's guilty of war crimes, with their hands soaked in blood. >> but you'd probably keep the structure? >> it would have to be something that would govern the country. it won't be easy. i'm not saying syria will turn into australia or canada. it will be less than compared to other developed countries. but it can't be a vacuum. and it has to be a government capable of finding some level of unity, still possible to have a syrian identity, but allows government sharing amongst the peoples there. >> right now, rubio currently polling 15% in our nbc news/"wall street journal" poll, good for third place behind donald trump and ted cruz. rubio has been taking aim at fellow senator ted cruz in recent weeks as the top candidate from the establishment wing of the party, for now at least, rubio is working hard not to alienate some voters who are

supporting cruz and trump. >> this election is about the essence of america. about all of us who feel out of place in our own country. a government incredibly out of touch and millions with traditional values branded biggots and haters. >> nbc's peter alexander joins me from that rally where marco rubio is about to talk to his supporters. so, peter, third place right now, still looking to move to the top of the polls. two outsider candidates in front of him. but he is sort of the closest thing there is to a candidate of the establishment. how does he supplant the outsiders at the top of the race? what's the plan, do we know? >> i think you cast it well. but they want to be viewed not just as the candidate of the establishment, but with credentials that reach wider than that. rubio points out that his coming to office as a senator, as a freshman, that he was the darling of the tea party. they believe he has a much wider reach here. one of the concerns and one of the things he's been most consistent about is strong performances on the debate

stage. there's some fear privately among those supporters of rubio that the expectations, the bar has now been set so high for him to do well on the stage here in las vegas tomorrow night. but in effect, he does have the home-field advantage, you might say in las vegas. this is where he spent part of his childhood. the story he likes to tell so frequently, his father, the bartender, his mother a maid in this state. beyond that, this will take place, this debate at the venetian hotel. it's a hotel that is owned and rund by sheldon adelson, with a lot of money at stake, can be a critical supporter if rubio can impress him tomorrow night. >> thanks for joining us. national security is becoming a big topic on the 2016 trail. let's talk more about that with jonathan alter, political analyst and columnist at "the daily beast." sherry jack obis, president of

capital strategist, and co-author of the new york playbook. former colleague from the new york observer days. john, some of the new poll be numbers, president obama's approval rating on foreign policy, down to 37%. his handling of isis, just 34%. he had that appearance today at the defense department, trying to inspire confidence in his leadership in the campaign against isis. does not seem to be inspiring much right now. what is he missing? >> well, his speech didn't work effectively on sunday night. he's about to head off to hawaii for vacation. so he's trying to do a little bit of a do-over and sound a little bit more bellicose, if you will. a little more assertive, a little more churchillian in explaining -- >> did you hear any of that today? >> i did hear that. he did today what i thought he should have done last sunday. >> what was the difference?

>> to actually talk about military progress from the air. the degrading of isil forces, which is what he did today at the pentagon. he should have given us more of a battle report on sunday. we are in a war. and i think he hasn't quite gotten in step with the public on this. the public is there. nobody wants ground troops at this point. but even the republican opposition really doesn't have a position that's very different from that of the president. they are in tandem on this. but everybody wants the president to give us more of a sense that there is some progress being made in the struggle against isis. >> let me ask you too, we talk about the partisan gap, who ranks terrorism and national security as their top concern right now in the wake of san bernardino. obviously that's a big number nationally. 40%. but among republicans, much higher than among democrats. so this idea of fear of terrorism, concern about national security, desire to

stop isis. this is much more prominent, it seems, on the republican side than the democratic side in terms of a concern. who is that playing most to the advantage of right now? we see marco rubio trying to carve out ground and foreign policy. donald trump with the most controversial proposal. who's had benefitting most on the republican side? >> right now, i think it benefits those people with a bit of experience, probably rubio could benefit. cruz if he knows how to use this properly. the reason republicans care about this so much right now, or seems like they care about it more, is the president's performance on this, frightened people. he was inept. his speech today was not we're doing something different, but this is how that thing is going that we've been trying and we don't know how it's working. >> you weren't seeing any difference? >> no, i think he's lost credibility. i think people are afraid that he doesn't have a handle on this. republicans and democrats alike, and that's reflected in the polls, first in july, he said we have no plan after he called

isis jv. then he said we have them contained and then we're attacked, but he's not changing strategy. that's where republicans and democrats were so quick to react favorably to donald trump's very simple, immediate, knee-jerk response, which was, let's ban all muslims. i think it's an opportunity for hillary clinton to separate herself from the president. instead, she did what all the republican candidates except for ted cruz did, which was -- [ all speak at once ] >> let me ask you about hillary clinton. she still does have to deal with the democratic primary. she's really tried to align here's with most of the issues on the white house. when you look at the president's approval rating on terrorism, on isis, on foreign policy, is there a need for her to separate herself here? and is she doing that? >> it's unclear. she's trying to make the focus about herself and the republicans.

she doesn't want to remind people that she's a key part of the administration in the first term. what she has been trying to say is, donald trump, the person that everyone is sort of talking about, sort of wrestling with, that he is the standard bearer for the entire party. she basically wants to nominate him as the candidate -- >> that's the opponent she wants? >> that's the opponent she wants. it's unclear. he's representing a legitimate concern among people. the solution he's offering is deplorable, disgusting and probably not a safe word to say on television about it. but he's representing a genuine concern people have. they're not hearing it from the white house. if hillary clinton doesn't step forward more assertively, her performance in the debate with bernie sanders on one side and martin o'malley on the other, she should have clobbered them, and she didn't. it's a little bit of a concern. her poll numbers against the rest of the republican field sort of represents this idea that she's not as strong as she should be against these people who don't have the kind of experience she has.

>> we tested her, rubio was beating her by three. ben carson was still ahead by a point, even though he's in a free fall among republicans. she's ahead of donald trump by ten points. jonathan, sherry, and ozzy, stay with us. we'll have a lot more to talk about with you guys throughout the hour. and coming up, world leaders strike a historic agreement on climate change. much more on what is in that pact, and how some folks in congress want to block it. with massachusetts senator ed markey. he'll be here. and later, the odds are shifting in the republican field ahead of tomorrow's debate in las vegas. we'll break down how ted cruz is giving donald trump a run for his money. stay tuned.

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the federal aviation administration is now in a wild west drone free for all. starting on december 21st, personal drones will have to be registered. you'll remember headlines this year of a drone crashing into the u.s. open. another one almost flying over

the white house fence. federal agents are getting more than a hundred reports each month of drones flying near manned aircraft. so now the faa will have its eyes on the new class of microaviators. i'll be able to register your device for a $5 fee. we'll be right back with senator ed markey, on the historic internation international climate change deal. keep it right here. ♪ most weekends only last a couple of days. some last a lifetime. hampton. we go together. always get the lowest price, only when you book direct at hampton.com it's a housewife who's in control of the finances. actually, any wife, husband, or human person

can use progressive's name your price tool to take control of their budget. and while the men do the hard work of making money, she can get all the car insurance options her little heart desires. or the women might do the hard work of making money. [ chuckling ] women don't have jobs. is this guy for real? modernizing car insurance with -- that's enough out of you! the name your price tool, only from progressive. where is your husband? after two decades of negotiations and two weeks of intense talks in paris, nearly every country in the world approved the first global effort to fight climate change. [ cheers and applause ] >> diplomats from around the world celebrates what is being hailed as a historic deal that would seek a worldwide limit in greenhouse gas emissions, reducing the effects of climate change in the years ahead. the argument comes as global temperatures have climbed in

recent years. according to nasa, the ten warmest years on record have all occurred since 1998. 2015 is on track to be the hottest year ever recorded. the climate agreement would go into effect in 2020. the immediate goal to limit the warming of the earth to less than 3.6 degrees fahrenheit. the agreement seeks to limit the amount of greenhouse gas emissions from humans across the world and asks cub countries to come up with their own plans to make it happen. but that deal has already received a frosty reception in the united states. lawmakers have made attempts to stop any global agreement in. tracks. mitch mcconnell said, before his international partners pop the champagne, they should remember this that this is an unattainable deal based on a domestic energy plan that is likely illegal, that half the states have sued to halt, and that congress has already voted to reject. members of congress have brought

legislation to bar any deals to fight global warming. yo joining me now, ed markey, a leading advocate on climate change legislation in congress. senator, thank you for joining us. let me ask you about what you heard from mitch mccconnell. he's got the votes, at least on paper. you have republicans running the house. whether you like it or not, can the republicans basically blow up this deal? >> no, they cannot. what the president did was negotiate under the 1992 treaty that was ratified by the united states senate. what he has done in increasing fuel economy standards for our vehicles, the largest single reduction in greenhouse gases ever, and put on the books, a clean power plan for power plants in our country. he's done that pursuant to the clean air act, which is the law of the country as well. so the president is acting under existing legal authority to make promises to the world on behalf

of the american people, which are enforceable under existing u.s. law, which is separate from mitch mark mitch mcconnell saying they want to change it in our country. >> you had john kasich's campaign putting out a statement saying that the president intentionally crafted this deal to avoid treaty ratification by the senate, because he knew it wouldn't get through the senate. do you think there's something to that? >> not at all. he is negotiating pursuant to a treaty, and he's using existing executive branch authority. so there was no necessity to bring a treaty before the united states senate. because everything that he has done is under the laws of our nation. and so they are trying to talk -- the climate deniers, across the country, who don't want anything to happen, who don't want a wind and solar revolution, who don't want a dramatic increase in the fuel

economy standards, which we have for the vehicles which we have in our country, but they are just dead wrong in terms of the legal authority which the president has. >> let me ask you another question about this. this basically has to be revisited in the year 2020. no matter what, we will have a different president in the year 2020. it could be a republican president. we haven't seen any republicans come out and say anything nice about this deal. if a republican is elected president next year, is this deal in jeopardy? >> right now, as we debate the tax break extenders, as we debate the budget, the republicans are talking about lifting the ban on the exportation of american oil, even as we still import 25% of your oil from saudi arabia, and iraq and algeria and nigeria, that's through exxon mobil, that will be 240 plants additional energy that goes up into the atmosphere, even as we have young men and women in the

persian gulf. and they're pledging to try to strip the epa of its authority if there's a republican president. so this is going to be a big election, about big things. on national security, are we going to export our oil? even as the republicans are fighting right now to keep $7 billion of tax breaks on the books for exxon mobil and the other oil companies, they're fighting right now to phase out the $7 billion of tax breaks for wind and solar. so they're going to be at this, they're going to be trying to under mine it as the years go by. but i think the overwhelming majority of democrats, republicans, and independents, as they see this plan implemented, as they see the clean energy revolution unfolding, as they see how the rest of the world is responding to our leadership, they are going to reject those arguments. >> ed markey, thank you for joining us. >> thank you. now bring back in our panel. sherry, let me ask you this. no republicans, as we just said,

have come out and really said anything favorable about this. i imagine they'll all be railing against it on the campaign trail when they are asked about it. if a republican wins next year, do you think this is the sort of thing a republican president would seek to blow up, to get out of, to shred, whatever the term is? or is it something they campaign against, but as president, sing a different tune on this? >> the president is clearly circumventing the senate on this. people can say that's because of republicans. when harry reid, when the democrats had the senate and he had the white house, he killed carbon emissions, the carbon cap legislation, because he knew that it was unpopular, that americans weren't sold on this, he knew he would hurt democrats in the mid terms. so i guess it's popular to blame republicans, but the fact of the matter s the case has not been meat. >> you see the polls, the vast

majority of people believe climate change is real. do you think it's good politics for republicans in 2016 to be running on basically blowing up a global climate treaty? >> when you're letting two of the countries that are the biggest offenders let off the hook, china and india, it looks like it's very political. it's not going to do any good. while it might be people who agree that there's some climate change and that maybe the earth is warming for now, they're not necessarily convinced that it's man-made, or that this treaty is going to remedy that. so energy efficiency is good, a lot of people think so, because it can save them money if it's done right. but the left has just not made their case, which is again, why harry reid withheld the legislation, because he knew the left had not made their case. >> jonathan, we've seen this debate and cheri's making this point. if there's a soft spot for democrats, liberals, for advocates about doing something aggressive on climate change, it ends up being jobs. this will come at the expense of

american jobs. is there an opening there for republicans to make that argument here? >> there is. but look, this is a relatively minor issue. only about 7% of the american public puts it at the top of the agenda. what's fascinating to me, since cheri said the president hasn't made his case, well, he's made his case to the entire world. you now have a situation post paris where it's literally 195 nations, the entire world, including china and india, which are adapting these standards -- >> they don't explain how they can do it. they have no plan. >> everybody has the same standard now. only the republican congress in the entire world is denying the reality of climate change. talk about a consensus. so first we had a scientific consensus. now we have global, political consensus, except for the republicans in the united states. this is an extraordinary

historical moment when one political party is standing against literally the entire world. >> it's a political consensus, not a scientific consensus. >> it's both. >> politically, just in terms, i was struck by, from the republican side this week, john kasich's campaign put out a statement. i didn't hear much from the republican campaigns, i wonder if it's something they'd rather not talk about. >> no. the way bill clinton would talk about these issues, it's about the economy, the economy is not really high up on the list right now. the economy's doing pretty well. republicans have so many other issues to be talking about right now. and just like jon with than said, the public has concerns about terrorism right now. when bernie sanders tried to link the environment to terrorism at that debate right after the paris attacks, it struck at lot of people as something he needed to explain a little bit more and it's hard to make that argument in a sound bite. so republicans are on safe ground to avoid talking about

this for now. >> stay with us. coming up, chris christie gets a boost in new hampshire. but will an establishment dog fight pave the way for a trump victory in the granite state? and a visually annoyed jeb bush, flat-out trashes trump. is it too little too late, though, from bush? you're watching "mtp daily." there's a big difference between making noise... (mic tap) ...and making sense. (elephant noise) (donkey noise) when it comes to social security, we need more than lip service. our next president needs a real plan to keep social security strong. (elephant noise) hey candidates! enough talk. give us a plan.

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detainees. now the cnbc market wrap. >> thanks, steve. stocks ending their losing streak. the dow climbing by 103 points,y reversing a triple-digit klein. the s&p adding nine points. the nasdaq up by 18. last week it was a chemical merger, now it's rubbermaid doing a big deal. and amazon is yanking almost all hover boards from its sitas authorities investigate fires caused by the scooters. there have been 11 reports of fires in ten states. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide. special olympics has almost five million athletes in 170 countries. the microsoft cloud allows us to immediately be able to access information, wherever we are. information for an athlete's medical care, or information to track their personal best. with microsoft cloud, we save millions of man hours,

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to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. back with this monday edition of "mtp daily," i'm steve kornacki in for chuck

todd. we're now just seven weeks away from the iowa caucuses. while it's never been the friendliest turf for the republican party establishment, this time around is turning out to be an even tougher haul than usual. four separate polls show trump and cruz as the solid front-runners in the hawkeye state. the latest poll from quinnipiac university shows them neck and neck at 27%. they both leave rubio by double-digits. and in new hampshire, the plot gets thicker. a divided establishment in the granite state is clearing the way at least for now, for donald trump to have a runaway lead there. rubio duking it out with chris christie, who's enjoying a second wind in new hampshire after some high profile endorsements in that state, including from the union leader's newspaper editorial board. christie called out rubio by name this weekend. >> you heard rubio say a few weeks ago, he doesn't go to the senate and vote anymore because his vote doesn't matter.

his vote won't matter until we have a republican president. then, first of all, quit. don't try to make it self-righteous, you know, act of patriotism. and the stand that i'm taking because we need a new president. come on, marco, we don't believe any of that. >> tough words, even if you combine christie and rubio's numbers in new hampshire, they still don't add up to donald trump. so a big question in the minds of gop leaders. what happened if donald trump and ted cruz emerge as the winners of the first two republican contests? iowa and new hampshire. history shows there isn't much room at the top in the modern primary process, every eventual nominee in both parties has won either new hampshire or iowa. the rare exception, 1992, tom harkin took iowa that year, but not the nomination. of course there's a big asterisk there, he was a senator from iowa, nobody campaigned in the state. it's as if iowa never even happened that year.

in every other year, the nominee has won one of those states, iowa or new hampshire. the mainstream could coalesce around ted cruz. that's one possibility. you could say he might look moderate next to donald trump. cruz is banking on scooping up trump supporters, but trump has other plans in mind. he's working hard on making cruz a hard sell, saying that cruz isn't qualified to be president. >> when you look at the way he's dealt with the senate, where he goes in there like a, frankly like a little bit of a maniac, you're never going to get things done that way. you can't walk into the senate and scream and call people liars and not be able get along with people. he'll never get anything done. and that's the problem with ted. >> cruz says he's not nothing but love for trump, but will we see that on the debate stage tomorrow night? let's go to msnbc correspondent kasie hunt, live in las vegas. so, kasie, trump, at least on

the stump right now, itching for a fight with ted cruz. ted cruz resisting fighting back. any expectation of whether they'll mix it up tomorrow night? >> i think there's no doubt that we'll see the next step in the evolution of this emerging clash between donald trump and ted cruz. i think there's still some questions about what shape that's going to take. we haven't seen trump shy away really from any fight once he's found a reason to go after somebody. of course this coming in the wake of what ted cruz had to say about him in that leaked audio tape at that fund-raiser where he questioned trump's judgment to have his finger on the button. that seems to have lit up an open season. whether cruz is going to go after trump is a much more delicate calculation for those close to cruz. they are still trying to be pretty careful about when and how they antagonize him, trying to go this lighter route, these tweeted videos, for example, and i think we've seen cruz be very

effective in the previous debates at turning the conversation onto other people. you've seen him go after the media when moderators have put questions to him that seem to try to push him into attacking another candidate. you've seen him turn around and really make that play that we've seen so many republicans successfully make in previous debates. you saw it with newt gingrich back in 2012. >> kasie hunt in las vegas, thanks for that. let's bring the panel back. jonathan alter, cheri jack ob us and ozzy, reporter for politico. trump versus cruz, maybe the moment has finally come. i should note and actually maybe we can play this before i go to you. i thought this was interesting. donald trump -- excuse me. rush limbaugh, who has been supportive of donald trump in a lot of his comments, today, after he attacked ted cruz, had some very unkind words. let me play those for you.

>> it's no different than what the media would say about ted cruz. this is no different than what the democratic party would say. this is what the republican establishment would say, for crying out loud. this is akin to saying i'm the guy who can cross the aisle and work with the other side. so he's decided to go after cruz here in the way the establishment republicans go after cruz, in the way the media goes after cruz, in the way the democrats go after cruz. he's essentially put on his john mccain hat here. saying, i'm donald mccain, and i'm the guy that can cross the other and work with the other side and ted cruz can't. >> to the limbaugh wing of the party, there's no worse comparison to be made, i think, than to john mccain. is this the right target for trump to be picking? cruz is moving up in the poll, but he has the same anti-establishment cred with the base. this is what he'll face if he goes after him, no?

>> it is. but for trump to call anyone else a maniac, to accuse anyone else of not being able to work with people, it's laughable on its face. last republican primary, everyone sort of had a turn being the nominee, being the front-runner. this time it seems like everyone is getting a turn and the prize being attacked by donald trump. if you're ted cruz, this is perfect. you're getting the attention without having to move out of your position. and if you have, you know, the rush limbaugh wing of the party, coming to your defense, this is working out perfectly for him. >> i look at this fight and maybe one takes the other down early, but i also see a situation for the quote/unquote republican establishment here, which supposedly doesn't want trump as its candidate, wouldn't be comfortable with ted cruz, is maybe looking for marco rubio or somebody else. if ted cruz wins iowa and right now he's surging out there, if donald trump hangs on to new hampshire, rubio trying to move up there, but you have chris christie campaigning, the union leader behind him, the

opposition is so split up that trump wins new hampshire, is the field then set in a trump/cruz battle. >> that's like five questions. let me start with rush limbaugh. this is the pivot of right-wing media to switch from trump and move to cruz. >> this is orchestrated? >> i believe so. and i note this is also a way to give cruz a little bit of relief from people not trusting him, saying he's too close with trump, so this gives him a little bit of cover on that front. but i think rubio's plan to place in iowa and if you're rubio, you want cruz to take iowa and beat trump. because in new hampshire, there's a poll that has rubio only one point down from donald trump with very likely -- [ all speak at once ] >> but you got to win new hampshire, don't you? >> i think that's the plan. he's not putting a lot of resources in iowa. he's putting resources in new

hampshire. [ all speak at once ] >> but he's one point down. >> in one poll. but one of my five questions is about, here's the union leader, largest paper in the state, very credible with the conservative base. they're backing christie. he's doing the town halls throughout the state. so christie can get 10, 15, 20%, those are all rubio votes, aren't they? >> possibly. but we still have plenty of time if you go that route. but if cruz wins iowa, and anybody but trump wins new hampshire, trump is gone. the psychological impact of a trump loss, they're going to be waiting to have so much winning that they get sick of winning. >> that's the flip side of the narrative. if trump does win one of the first two states, i see they could have a hard time beating him. but if he doesn't win one of the two -- >> he's deflated. >> there's a third option. if you look at the expectations game, which is a big part of the early primaries, if trump is expected to win a big victory in

new hampshire and let's say he narrowly beats chris christie and marco rubio, then there's still alive. they get a ticket out of new hampshire, the same way bill clinton did in -- >> the comeback kid who lost by eight points. [ all speak at once ] >> there's many examples of that. and christie has spent a lot more time up there than rubio. rubio is doing something that i think is reminiscent of rudy guiliani when he ran, which is just not putting in the time in new hampshire. what they say about new hampshire voters is, have you made up your mind yet? and the voter says, i don't know, i haven't met all the candidates personally. that's the way they feel. they're so spoiled with all the attention they've gotten over the years. that if you just try to run a media campaign. >> and the other danger you raise, giuliani showed you cannot retreat to one of the secondary states. you gotta score early. you can't wait until florida or

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for their debate tomorrow night, news on the democratic side of the race. a new poll shows hillary clinton leading bernie sanders by nine points in iowa. 48-39. up next, the who, the what, the when, the where, and the why of today's headlines. including shameless "star wars" politicking. stay with us. politicking. ♪ ♪ [ girl ] my mom, she makes underwater fans that are powered by the moon. ♪ [ birds squawking ] my mom makes airplane engines that can talk. [ birds squawking ]

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it's time for the ws starting with a who? it's iowa governor. today he became the longest serving governor of all time, in office for a total of 20 years,

11 months and 3 days. he takes the title from new york's very first governor george clinton. what the? it is a crippling defeat for france's far right national front party. the party led in 6-13 regions in the first round but failed to win a single region sunday. the where? saudi arabia. that is where 17 women were elected in municipal elections on saturday. that's the first vote there to include female participation. it's a step forward for women, but the election was only for seats on municipal councils that have no law-making or national powers. the when? that is today. the seattle city council will vote on a law that will allow uber and lift drivers to unionize. it would be the first law in the u.s. that allows for collective bargaining for such workers. now to why the? politicians are trying to capitalize on the upcoming "star wars" movie. one of the newest examples is ted cruz. he has a contest on his

campaign's app giving away tickets to the film's opening weekend. to have a chance at winning, users must win points by liking and sharing cruz' social media post-s. why? "star wars" excitement is everywhere this week. check out today's daily cartoon from the "new yorker." that is our own chuck todd on "meet the press" set asking what do you think of cruz emerging as a more level-headed alternative to trump. akbar is a proponent of one of the most important things to be aware of in all of politics. >> it's a trap. with my moderate to severe ulcerative colitis, the possibility of a flare was almost always on my mind. thinking about what to avoid, where to go... and how to deal with my uc. to me, that was normal. until i talked to my doctor. she told me that humira helps people like me

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movie geeks. sports freaks. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. the guy's not serious. he's not a serious person. he can't be commander in chief. he doesn't have plans. this is all dog whistle talk. this is to provoke, anger. this is to generate massive attention to him. it's not about a serious plan. is that a serious plan in all reality? of course it's not. he'll back track and say, i didn't mean it that way. you guys are wrong and disparage people along the way, but he got what he wanted. he got 72 hours of complete attention by the media that are basically his lap dog. >> jep bush there with very angry words for donald trump and the media. let's get right to "the lid."

our panel is back. i want to pick up what we were talking about in the last segme segment. if we got through iowa and new hampshire, if cruz wins iowa, if trump wins new hampshire, those are the first two winners, can you see a scenario where the republican establishment takes a look at that? cruz and trump, and says, we don't like cruz but we can't have trump and cruz becomes the save the party from trump establishment candidate? >> i can see him becoming a place holder for that position. i think right now, again, i'm leaning rubio at this point in time. i haven't made my decision. i'm anti-trump. i want to see cruz defeat trump in iowa. then i want to see trump go down or almost go down in new hampshire. i don't think that he can sustain. i agree with bush 100%. i want to state what we already no. the media has given trump more

coverage than all the other candidates combined. nate silver said mid summer at that point he had 50 million free media. by now it's safe to say he's had 100 million of free media if any candidate spent a fracture of that, they would have the same advantage in the polls. this is not a mystery. >> i'll stick up from the media, nobody spent more money than jeb bush in super pac and he's got no traction. >> it's not good money. it's about message and how you're connecting or not connecting with the republican party electorate. trump is connecting. it's important to understand that is not the american public. it's a subset of the republican party. there's all this talk about donald trump is representing the way americans feel right now. no, he's representing about the way 15% the way americans feel. >> that bush clip strikes me he

is blaming trump in part. trump symptom of bush's problem or cause? >> symptom. bush was not exciting before trump and he doesn't seem to be now. this is a last-shot effort at relevancy. >> thank you for joining us. we'll be back tomorrow with more "mtp daily." erica hill picks up our coverage now. tonight on msnbc live, donald trump opening up. his biggest lead yet in the new poll. with the next debate now 24 hours away. today marks three years since the shooting at sandy hook elementary. kate snow sits down with two of the parents who lost children on that day. >> do you mark the day in any way or is it just another day? >> grind your teeth, hug your kids, get through it. >> remarkable data from nbc news about the number of children killed by