a severe rash, or signs of unusual behavior, stop taking tamiflu and call your doctor immediately. children and adolescents in particular may be at an increased risk of seizures, confusion, or abnormal behavior. the most common side effects are mild to moderate nausea and vomiting. anti-flu? go antiviral with tamiflu. we're foming breaking news this morning. the 10 u.s. sailors taken into

custody yesterday have now been set free but not without a warning. good morning, it's wednesday, january 13th. welcome to morning joe. with us on set we have mike barnical, richard haas, al hunt and columnist and associate editor for the washington post david ignacious. the pentagon confirms 10 american sailors have been released from iranian custody. a pentagon official told the associate press two vessels were moving between kuwait and iran. they said the boats entered territorial waters after a failure in their navigation systems. iranian military forces seized both vessels and detained the sailors. nine men and one woman. let's bring in the chief

correspondent for more on this. >> good morning. that's right. the guards issued a statement saying that the 10 sailors have been released after being taken. they were suspicious of their activities. now they've set off a thorough investigation and realize their navigation systems failed. there was nothing suspicious and now they've set them free and now with their unit. the revolutionary guard here released pictures of american sailors in iranian detention. i think one of the reasons that has happened is because it's a nuclear deal. iran and america have been talking with each other during the deal.

this would been unheard of. this is one thing that's come out of it. i'm sure we'll get more details during the course of the day. mika. >> we'll be watching for them. thank you very much. >> i suppose that's one way. paint a silver lining around the fact that this regime configures one provocation after another following supposedly a historic deal that's going to bring him in the community of the nation. >> october 10th, of course, is when they test long range missiles. the same week the country's chief judge convicted a washington post reporter keeping him in jail. of course, iran sending additional ground troops to syria. now seizing u.s. ships and sailors holding them overnight.

tell me again why did the president do a thuggish deal with them? >> it dealt with the aspects of the -- >> so it allows them to hold our people hostage, journalist hostage and break treaties? >> it was never meant to deal with all those other things. i think there was the hope in the white house it would set emotions. >> how was that helped played out? i'm not being sarcastic. i'll back off and ask you the question this way. are you surprised that we continue to see one provocation after another from the iranians? >> no because the deal was not only a narrative nuclear deal.

the reason they released the soldiers right away is because their lo they're looking for a bounty. it's going to help them at home. plus the a rain canadians have a lot on their plate. thae got iran, what's going on in iraq, syria, saudi arabia. they don't need a distraction right now with the united states. this was a narrow nuclear deal and the idea that it was going to lead. >> david ignacious, perhaps that was the hope. i'm wondering though do we enter into deals that seem to take a different way in and out. >> teasing these sailors is the latest example.

this could have escalated quickly into a very, very dangerous crisis. my take away this morning is that this shows first the a rain canadians really want this deal to go through. they have enough control on the system they can impose on outcome to free the sailors that some of the revolutionary -- >> and on your second point, can you explain to our viewers and americans, this is one thing many don't understand about

iran. >> they are every day facing battles with the hard liners and the a archy sea forces on the island that seized these two boats might have turned this into an incident and brought them back to iran. final finally, this was militarily not strong ground on which the iranians would fight. this would been a heck of a battle if they held them any longer. >> david, one of the things that i've heard late yesterday is that this deepening divide within iran poses somewhat of a threat to our relationship, our future relationship with iran. you have hard liners and a government seeking to get the deal done and when news reached iran from the state department

yesterday afternoon, there was some amazement this occurred. should american sailors have indeed. >> i wouldn't be surprised if the foreign ministers were shocked when john kerry, a person whose been dealing with it almost every day for the last couple of years called him and told him this. this is true. the confrontation between the hard liners and moderates into iran is growing worse. there will be elections in iran next month really worth following carefully. it will test whether the iranian parliament will become more moderate or whether the hard liners through drastic measures would keep their candidates from running. that will tell you where this country's going for the next few years. >> we'll come back to iran in a few minutes. new polling on the democratic side shows hillary clinton's lead slipping nationwide and bernie sanders out performing

her in iowa and new hampshire. the new cbs and new york times poll shows clinton leading sanders internationally. that's a big swing since december. this comes after a poll in iowa shows sanders in the lead 649-4. >> that's an 18 point swing. >> big swing. >> much of that. the poll shows iowa dim cats thinks clinton's best qualified to handle terrorism but sanders can handle the economy. a lot view sanders more trustworthy than clinton. 93% say bernie sanders say he's trustworthy. 3% says he's not. >> i saw part of a new york times poll and the analysis of it, willie, that for democratic voters, 45 years or younger in

that national poll bernie sanders leads by a 2-1 margin. >> it's an amazing phenomenon. >> it's amazing. you have a 74-year-old guy. >> i think also there is on the republican side we've talked about bush fatigue and the possibility of clinton fatigue. we've got a lot of these voters, if you're 38 years or younger, you've never voted for bill clinton. >> how about bernie excitement? i think they like him. >> i think there's trump and cruz. i'm just saying there's a lot of the younger voters that set up, bush/clinton, we don't want that. >> it's the structural policy. it's a clean, clear message. >> it's amazing what's happening though, willie. >> that's what's happening in iowa.

let's hop over the new hampshire. a poll has bernie sander ahead by 14 points. another swing 17 points. bernie up eight and secretary clinton down nine. the new numbers come as secretary clinton hammers away at her top opponent yesterday getting help from her daughter chelsey making the first appearance of the 2016 campaign. >> senator sanders wants to dismantle -- republicans in congress have voted against the affordable care act 55 times. not because they want to replace it with something but get rid of it. i worry if we give republicans democratic position to do that, we'll go back to an era before we had the affordable care act. that will strip millions and millions and millions of people of their health insurance. >> don't talk to me about

standing up to corporate interest and big powers. i've got the scars to show for it and i am proud of every single one of them. we have a big difference over guns. you know that. i think it's a telling difference because if you're going to go around saying you stand up to special interest, stand up to the most powerful special interest. he wants to roll medicare, medicaid, the children's health insurance program, affordable care act program and private health insurance into a national system and then turn it over to the states to administer. now, if that's the kind of revolution i'm talking about i'm worried. >> al hunt, let's talk about first of all, hillary and chelsey going after bernie sanders pretty aggressively and having a good reason to do that if you look at the new york

times poll and these new polls out of iowa. >> they hear footsteps. i was disappointed to see chelsey clinton yesterday. she was dead wrong. she can't akwa with what bernie sanders proposes with what republicans sought to do in congress. he wants a national health insurance program. it may be good and may be bad. they are really nervous, joe. they think there's a possibility they could lose both of those first two contest. doesn't necessarily change the odds of the nominee. put it weakens her and means we're going to be going at this for a long, long time. >> so many look and we had this discussion with somebody else yesterday but they look out at the numbers in all these states

as being static not realizing if hillary clinton loses iowa and new hampshire that suddenly, south carolina which looks so conferredab comfortable right now, that will be a win for her. i remember mika interviewing michelle obama in the 2008 campaign and they were talking about the frustration of black americans voting more for hillary clinton than barack obama. that changed quickly too. the clintons have been here. they seen this before. it happened in 2008. >> this is when she gets better. she gets good and people get out of the way. >> it gets better. what exactly, al is going wrong with this campaign that was suppose to be a walk in the park? >> she hasn't done much wrong.

he has 24 million already. >> a new poll shows donald trump is a threat in iowa. cruz loses altitude from his high last month down six points with trump climbing one. what was a 10 point lead for cruz is now down the three. >> can we stop here and talk about donald trump.

last week he fwogoes cruz is th guy. i'm not going to bash him but i'm really, really, his birth certificate, i'm worried about whether he's qualified. >> we did a huge press conference yesterday on his roots. >> we still have republican talking about the possibility he may not be qualified to be president of the united states. he said the same. this is a real issue. the majority leader of the senate saying yes, this is a real issue. >> not just republicans but you got democrats sticking in and helping donald trump.

>> marco rubio and ben carson battling it out for third place. evangelicals make up 30% of the elect elect electorate in this poll. >> you said something like ba s barnical. a change ol month men maximum. >> i suspect many of you believe they're early. donald trump is there. >> trump always up, down. he shows resilience and always

seems to be going up. >> he raises the cruz sitship issue and it's hurting cruz. you can sense it's hurting cruz. there's no way to track donald trump. we don't know anything about donald trump other than the fact he's leading in the polls and no matter what he does he stays up. >> that's amazing. al hunt. >> i don't disagree with anything y'all said. let me say, i think cruz's position is a bit stronger in iowa than you just suggested. when this poll was conducted, it

was the poll standard. when we asked about favorable, unfavorable, donald trump is 54-45. not great. ted cruz 76-19. he has room to grow. i think he's in as stock of a position than today. maybe it doesn't show up in polls. >> so accounting why his loss is three. you noted earlier this battle for third place, you're going to trail trump and cruz by a great

deal. he clearly has broken away in iowa from the rest of the pack. if you add up chris christie, john kasich and jeb bush, you don't hit double digits. >> you look at the poll and this is how silly politics is. you look at these numbers and let's say it ended up like this. marco rubio and everybody else, i'm looking across the bottom of the bloomberg poll, 25-22. if rubio is going to be able to say what mike said back in 1998, nobody knew my name and now the caucus -- if he gets 11% to carson's 12% suddenly he's in fourth place and the pollsters are going around the campaign and he's out in three weeks. that's the problem with where marco is and these other establishment candidates are.

you have got to tell them. it's one thing to say i came in third place to get the medal. the republican establishment is not going to get behind the people that have lost to trump, cruz and car sochbson. they're not going to do that. i don't know who the other republican is after trump wins iowa and new hampshire.

you have the qualifying dead lines. you can qualify for new york, pennsylvania and the other states. they say myitt romney, you have no choice. you've had the big money, say of course, they have piled on to jeb and pulled away. but you heard, they might go to cruz. they didn't. they might go to rubio, they didn't. they might go to christie but not so sure they want to go to christie. we'll see what happens. >> we have a tax on donald trump from the president and nicki haley last night. >> so nicki doesn't want to be his vice presidential candidate. >> i don't think so. it's incredible. we have so much to get to including extensive coverage. we'll dig into president obama's final state of the union and the vail they took at some top presidential candidates. >> that was a surprise. >> it was incredible.

plus jeb bush is campaigning in iowa while governor chris christie is taking out new hampshire. senator rand paul here on set to explain why he's opting out of tomorrow's undercard debate and later. >> by the way, you and i disagree on that. i think that's a good idea. i would opt out f it and figure out where to go to another venue and make news from that venue and i promise you if he did that, he would get more press than he would get. >> i don't think so. >> than he would get sitting there with four people at the table. let me ask you this, what would donald trump do? >> yes, but. >> would he go somewhere, set himself up? >> he doesn't need to set himself on fire. >> i'm not saying he does but instead of setting yourself on fire you can set yourself apart. that's what he needs to do. >> well, he's doing that. >> wwdd, what would donald do?

>> you've seen the tattoo. >> that's ridiculous. senator tom cotton says the nuclear deal -- >> wait a minute, you said ewe because i was talking about my tattoo. >> where is the tattoo, joe? >> lower back. >> oh. this friday we'll be live at java joe's in des moines, iowa. the copy boarder is already in and i'm so excited. it's the morning after the next g.o.p. debate and donald trump will be among our guests. you're watching morning joe. we'll be right back.

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27 past the hour, joining us

now, walter. >> by the way, the idea festival and you're talking about the wonderful teams. >> also with us, msnbc political correspondent casey hunt. there she is. good to have you this morning as well. >> the president's final state of the union was interesting for what it was and what it was not. >> the president made no mention of the international stand off by the american sailors. >> were you surprised? >> i was surprised the secretary of state was there. i guess they had other people on it. i wasn't surprised he didn't touch on it because it was sensitive and in motion. >> it was too fast moving. it was a tactical blip. what's more interesting is all the big strategic things he didn't mention. the fact he didn't mention that. >> he did hail his land mark

nuclear deal and despite his resent executive action he made one reference to guns. >> why do you think that is? >> it was half a sentence. >> it was half a tsentence. it would seemed to me he would spoken about that much more. especially when it's a 9010 issue. especially when you're stopping americans from gun shows and buying guns. >> and he left an empty seat up in the balcony for the victims of gun violence. >> i think that was the biggest surprise. >> maybe he thought morning joe would talk about it more if he didn't say anything. >> strategizing already. we could have a whole debate over that.

i think the moment after newtown was about the most extraordinary political theater and i say that with the greatest respect that i've seen. i was not surprised. >> especially in chicago over the past week a hundred people shocked. >> i thought what what was amazing was what he did not aend which was the indictment of the american policy. >> no nation attacks the u.s. or its allies because they know that's the path the ruin. >> surveys show it's higher around the world and when it comes to every important international issue.

people of the world do not look to beijing or moscow to lead, they call us. i told you earlier all the talk of the economic decline is political hot air. so is all the rhetoric you hear about the enemies getting stronger and america getting weak were. let me tell you something, the united states of america is the most powerful nation on earth. period. b what the american people should know with or without congressional edge i so will learn the same lessons as terrorist before them. if you doubt america's commitment or mine to see that justice is done just ask osama bin laden.

ask the leader of al qaeda who was taken out last year for the perpetrator of the benghazi attacks. when you come after americans we come after you. it may take time. >> dead or alive. a little bushy in him. that's 43 right there. clint eastwood too. >> paul ryan though. no game face really. that was bad. >> he had a really good game face. >> no. >> he did. then when the president got to the part that said we're -- >> his face twisted into a pretzel. >> he started twitching just like i was doing. i seen some suggest the opposite is not true. our standing is not higher in the world today. >> relations with our friends and allies has weakened with the israelis and saudis. after all the syrian headlines

and egypt and also relations with russia, china worsened. >> cuba and iran. >> he talked all about cuba. >> thank god for that. the one thing he said is he talked about rhetoric and our enemies getting stronger. it's not red rick. the american people are smart enough to know isis is rising all over the world. he has this thing where he tries to tap down and minimize the threat of that. some people over state it, that's true. i think the american people are worried about it. >> he does do that.

you got isis in paris and i was stan bull. you got russians in ukraine. >> if you're going to build a coalition you're going to need help. someways balancing iran off in these ways, it's an interest. >> do we have time to debate that because i would say that the expansion of iran's power over the past two years actually feeds into isis strength across. >> i was reading mecham's book. that surprised me. that balance and you've written

about it. that balance, that hw dip between iran and iraq was brilliant and like kissinger doing the balance between russia. >> i think they feel like they got the short end of the stick. i've heard it time and again and then the iranian deal was sort of adding insult to injury. >> they said the weekening of iraq no longer had the balance against iran. that was the fwining. and also isis. there's a real i had logical political threat to the world. it now for a lot of young

soonnies reflects the future. >> let's get to south carolina governor nicki hay lee who delivered the official republican response to president obama's address. though she criticized the president's remarks and record she also appeared to speak out against voices in her own party. >> i'm the proud daughter of indian i would grants who reminded my brothers and sisters and me every day how blessed we were to live in this country. today we live in a time of threats like few others in resent memory. during an, times it can be tempting to follow the siren call of the angriest voices. we must resist that temptation. no one willing to work hard, abide by our laws and love our traditions should never feel unwelcomed in this country. at the same time, that does not mean we flat out open our

boarders, we can't do that. we must fix our broken immigration system. that means stopping illegal immigration and it means welcoming properly vetted legal immigrants regardless of their race or religion. just like we had for centuries. >> i would say nicki hay lee, welcome to the big stage. >> you know, willie, this is the worst gig to get. it's worse than being a guy that shuffles plates and following the needles. it never works out well. last night nicki haley, how did she do? >> she's a star. she has been for years and now the people in the country know it. >> she shows you can be a moderate and as you stand your ground and carve out an interest, there's a place for you in politics. i think every modern republican and democrat should have taken a lesson from her.

let's go to casey hunt. hay lee's speech sparked backlash. jeb bush said he was proud of her delivering an uplifting response. not everyone felt that way. >> not everyone did. i got to tell you the conversation we're having now is a big part of the reason some of these conservatives are going to come out. i think some of this backlash keeps building. you had ann tweeting about the same. trump should deport nicki haley. laura inc. gram, these other types of commentators. >> what stupidity? what? >> what? let's keep moving. >> she didn't say that. i'm going to assume that's a huge mistake. >> what were some of the others? >> we also had laura ingram tweeting. this is in many ways defined to

the top wing radio types. >> what did laura ingram tweet? >> she tweeted about how van jones praised the speech and that's everything you need to know about what happened with nicki haley. ann's clearly been the most aggressive example of this. there has been other conversation around it. some of these people are known as donald trump supporters and nicki hay lee had stuff to say that eluded to donald trump and in many ways her speech said what washington is trying to gap l with right now.

i think a lot of people are resigning to donald trump may be the nominee. >> i think she's saying it's not smart to attack ted cruz and donald trump. why are we going after these people who have captured so much imagination of our party? >> especially when you're giving the republican response. i can certainly understand that. >> it is fascinating hearing nicki haley being described as a mad rate when she clearly came from the republican party in 2010. >> i think the whole night was historic when you look at the president of the united states, final state of the union and then nicki hay lee as the response. a lot of things there just basically incredibly moving about where we're going. a lot of work to do.

casey hunt, thank you so much. >> walter, thank you so much. >> something like that. still to come this morning, three presidential candidates with some ground to make up. jeb bush, chris christie, senator rand paul all join us when morning joe continues. mmm, a perfect 177-degrees. and that's why this road warrior rents from national. i can bypass the counter and go straight to my car. and i don't have to talk to any humans, unless i want to. and i don't. and national lets me choose any car in the aisle. control. it's so, what's the word?... sexy. go national. go like a pro. in my business i cbailing me out my i.all the time... i'm not the i.t. guy. i'm the desktop support tech supervisor. and my customers knowing right when their packages arrive. introducing real-time delivery notifications. learn more at myusps.com

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still ahead on morning joe, he's had little patience before the brief intervention of 10

u.s. sailors. senator tom cotton and intelligence committees is next on morning joe.

with us now republican senator tom cotton of texas. >> arkansas. >> did i say texas? oh my god. >> woe, we need to start that again. >> what an insult for you. arkansas, thank you so much for with us. sq >> and he's from arkansas. and born and raised in arkansas. >> yeah. >> unlike ted cruz you were born in the united states of america. >> arkansas. >> i want to ask your response to what happened yesterday with the iranians. we've been talking about many things they've been doing over the past several months including arresting u.s. journalist and trying them and holding them. what was your response to the latest iranian provocation?

>> joe, that's exactly what it was, a provocation. i find it hard to belief they both broke down and drifted into iran canadian water and the shock troops wasn't somehow involved in taunting this in advance all designed to humiliate the president just days before we're about to release billions and billions of dollars to iran. as you say, even if these hostages from our navy is released iran holds six american hostages and holds america hosta hostage. >> we had iranian gun votes in a hundred yards.

>> right. just a few days ago iran torchered the saudi allies. they held them hostage over a year. not only that but they've taken two more americans hostage. there's been an unending series of provocations since the nuclear deal was signed last july and an example of how iran holds president obama and the united states hostage to his desire to preserve the nuclear deal. >> let's go to david in washington. david. >> thank you, senator for pe speaking out on behalf of our reporter who is held in a rachblt if those 10 sailors were being held at this hour on the gulf, what would you advocate? we were hearing the hos tanl rescue teams should be ready and

on the move. would you be recommending that today. >> david, the news reports they've seen have been released which is a good thing but there's many unknown details about how they became to be seized. iran's semiofficial state news agency showed video tape of equipment being seized. we needed to hear from them about exactly what happened before we reach conclusions. >> let's go to bloomberg's al hunt in washington. al. >> what did you think of nicki hay lee's response last night? >> al, i confess i've got an 8-month-old baby sick at home at the time and i was tending to him, not listening to the response. nicki has been an accomplished governor of south carolina and i'm sure she did a good job.

>> thanks for being with us and tell all your friends i apologize. >> i will do that. >> thank you, sir. coming up. chris christie joins us and explains his plans to knock out the other two top tier governors. the presidential candidate joins us just ahead on morning joe. woman: it's been a journey to get where i am. and i didn't get here alone. there were people who listened along the way. people who gave me options. kept me on track. and through it all, my retirement never got left behind. so today, i'm prepared for anything we may want tomorrow to be. every someday needs a plan. let's talk about your old 401(k) today. in new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today.

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still ahead on morning joe. >> let me look at this one last time. >> president obama takes one last look at congress. plus three of the republican candidates to replace him, jeb bush, governor chris christie and senator rand paul join us live. first political strategist and chuck todd join us with interesting new polling. interesting to say the least is out this morning. just say the people of iowa are now apparently feeling the burn. it's not just iowa. it's becoming a real race on the democratic side. >> we said in december to january was going to be a remarkable month. we are thinking about it on the democratic, republican side. it's happening on the democratic side now. expect hillary laying back.

i think you expect an aggressive push to the end. >> thai going to have to save these states. morning joe is coming right back.

welcome to morning joe. time to get up and get going. it's wednesday, january 13th. we have msnbc political analyst eugene robinson. former campaign strategist and msnbc analyst and the president

of the counsel on foreign relations, richard haas still with us as well. >> you know, we were talking before about the race with steve. >> yeah. >> and said what happens if trump loses iowa and he said the next several days will be interesting. they said what if he wins iowa? think about it as bow jackson returning a punt gets the ball and plows it through everybody. that's a fight thing site. >> absolutely. nobody has ever won on the republican side of iowa and new

hampshire. >> does he overreact in a way that resets the race in a subsequent state and able to quickly move on? he has a big lead in the state of new hampshire right now and maintain that. >> it's going to be fascinating. we'll see what happens. by the way, for the record, the plub establishment are running like bo jackson would run down the hill right now. >> on the democratic side, it's a nail biter. it's unexpected. >> unbelievable. oh my god. >> unexpected competition for hillary clinton. we'll get to that in a second. we got breaking news out of iran we want to update you on. 10 american sailors released from iranian custody. the sailors were held overnight in the persian gulf. commander for iran's revolutionary guard said the sailor's two boats entered territorial waters after a failure in their navigation systems. iran's revolutionary guard said that the sailors had been

released back into international waters following an apology from the u.s. the navy has confirmed that the sailors are sick and there were no indications they were harmedburg their retention. >> we did the deal with the country that holds our sailors hosta hostage. at what point does the united states say it's enough? >> what the administration has to keep explaining we did a deal with iran, a limited deal and it was meant to park if not resolve

one important part of the relationship which was the nuclear challenge from iran. it was never designed to transit form this relationship into the kind of relationship we had in britain. >> the transformation seems to be worse. they're firing missiles and holding u.s. journalist hos tta and seizing american ships. it goes on and on and on. >> no one has ever described this deal in anything but the grandest terms. look at the resent weeks and you have the 23 seconds warning, you have an iranian missile launched

1,500 yards from an american aircraft carrier. washington post reporter illegally detained for over a year. we go back to the cold war between the soviet union and united states. while we never engaged in combat the two sides against each other, we fought the proxy wars. you see that playing out between the soonnies and saudi arabia and iran and the rebels and now you see the breaking and diplomatic relations between saudi arabia and iran and all the deal and the allineation of the soud did is and soonny arab allies and the discontent or uneasiness with the administration. we look at saudi arabia in particular and we have a 79-year-old king incapacitated at some level and really the person running the country, a 33-year-old deputy prince with his levers on control of many of the institution. it's extremely dangerous

situation that has become more dangerous in that region of the world since the deal was signed and because the deal was signed. >> i've got to disagree on a number of points. one thing we agree on is the prolonged illegal detention of the washington post correspond nt. he's in jail today and that's outrageous. the iranians have been following through on their end of the bargain and the nuclear deal. i think john kerry, less the president has described the deal in terms of what richard haas used. it was a deal designed to keep iran from getting a nuclear bomb. does it do that or not do that?

they're doing the -- it was kind of their end and at this point has a lot to do with what's happening inside saudi arabia. and the instability of that regime. >> their ambassadors and leaders have said it. they don't trust we have their backs. that's why they take the actions they take. >> it's in the interest of the united states to have a balance of power between iran and saudi arabia. it is not in the interest of the united states in my view to have

them as dominate over the region as they would like to be. >> these are happy days for you then. they not only own iraq and syria. >> that, you know, they're back. you know, and then that was done. >> you look at the saudis and now you've got them going into yemen and there's that battle going on. the iranians want all the middle east. the balance, there should be a balance of power but it is now disproportionally in the direction of the siran.

>> can you call in ambassador. >> he finds it hard to believe two united states military ships lost power and drifted into iranian waters. my question to you is do you think iran would have been so allegedly gracious with this and handing the soldiers back if they didn't have a hundred billion dollars coming to them the next few days and weeks. >> two things, my boss use to say first accounts are neither complete nor accurate. i don't think we know enough about the details. the fact that the iranians handed them back so quickly, yes, it was benign. they may have also wanted to act with restraint after the burning down of the saudi embassy and iran. i think the government had a desire to show they were a responsible law abiding government. they don't need to pick a fight

with the united states right now. they have their happeneds full with what's going on in syria, yemen and so forth. they want to see that money begin to flow in exchange for them implementing the basics of the nuclear agreement. >> these guys are the worst actors in the world. john kerry and barack obama are so invested in a horrible nuclear deal that we keep tu turning a blind eye to it. >> let me put it this way, joe. i think put aside the immediates, one of the biggest challenges for whoever wins this election in this country is going to be to deal with the surge of iranian power in the region, what i call an imperial iran and how to adjust the behaviors of the others. we don't want several of its

neighbors beginning to go down the nuclear path because they're worried about iran. >> which is what we warned the administration about time and time again that a nuclear iran leads to a nuclear saudi arabia and a nuclear middle east. you talk about a challenge being the serge of the power, $150 million is enough to give anybody a serge. >> one of the deals is we've unlocked the prif ration from the east. i think the most damaging indictment when you look at the administration's national security policies come from its former defense secretaries. look at secretary gates and talking about the naive of the national security staff around the president, the criticisms of secretary hague l talking about the profound plit sizization and

of course, you have the criticisms of leon, unprecedented for a president to be criticized like that by three former defense secretaries. >> all right. let's get to politics. we have a lot of polls to cover and incredible developments on the democratic side. >> on both sides, let's start with the republicans. donald trump has hit a new high and another national poll at 36%, trump has a 17 point national lead over ted cruz. >> it's a shamed that has gotten so old. >> look at that, that's a cbs/new york polls time. >> i wish we had an eye on gene's face. god civil -- go ds illa's

ceiling continues to rise. >> the poll finds republicans more inclined to say cruz shares their values more than trump. more than two-thirds say cruz has the right temperament and personality to be president while only half say that about donald trump. trump is leading cruz among evangelicals 42-25. a new poll out this morning shows donald trump still a major threat to cruz in iowa. cruz leads trump 25-30%. that's within the margin offer era. senator cruz lost ground. marco rubio and ben carson battling for third place there. in all, 32 pest of caucus goers say their minds are made up. 56% say they could change. >> let's bring in moderator of meet the press and host of mtp

daily. numbers are absolutely fascinating what's happening there. first, let's talk about the new iowa numbers that are just out. you look at every poll over the last week twoor so, the poll no dead heat between trump and cruz. this is a battle for the next two weeks. >> if you remember the poll we released monday, two different electorates. that's the difference between trump and cruz right now. the tighter the screen you have on what size if it's a smaller iowa caucus electorate, it's ted cruz. if it's a bigger iowa e welcome or theate, donald trump shows up. so i think we see there's two different races going on in

iowa. the battle between trump and cruz. by the way, if trump beats cruz, then all the sudden where does cruz go? then there's the battle for third place in iowa. jeb bush and marco rubio, in particular. carson on the down slope. the question is can he stop the slide? there's a reason bush went on the attack on rubio in iowa. third place is seen as something to get. >> jeb bush joining us in a few minutes. >> jeb bush joining us in a few minutes. >> third place matters. >> it does. this was a key part of john mccain's come back. on the night of the iowa caucuses, it was too close to call and he was tied for third on all of the network broadcast. we woke up in the morning and it was john mccain's come back and gave him momentum heading into

new hampshire. the third place in iowa, they say there's three tickets. the heated contest for third place is something that really matte matters. >> i remember getting third place in 1988 which led him to winning. >> what hattematters is exceedi expectations. a second place for trump is not as good as third place for bush. >> joining us republican presidential candidate and former governor of florida, jeb bush. good to have you back on the show and good to see you at the camp forward. how are you going go make it happen in iowa and what were you looking for at this point? >> good morning first of all from balmy des moines. we have a great ground gaining here. i had three town hall meetings.

we're working hard, the old fashion way which is to identify voters through volunteers working and get them out to the caucuses in a couple of weeks. so i don't know what the expectations are, i don't know where i'll be as it relates to the end result in iowa but we're working hard and i think it's making a difference. people are starting to evaluate this. look, in iowa when you have a front running candidate for president who says we should have a 45% across the board tariff on all imports, you know the first entity? it's iowa agriculture. you could see people's heads nodding. oh my gosh, that's right. china buys the entire soy bean crop in iowa on an annual basis and do it on premium at a price. it's a god send. and all of the industries around agriculture would suffer enormously if you had a president that would be so rash as to create a global depression. talking in real terms about the

challenges people face seems to resinate. >> governor bush, good to see you this morning. the super pack that's supporting you put out an add going after marco rubio as a flip flopper. rubio's campaign responded and said your campaign exists for the sole purpose of tearing down marco rubio and you're electing hillary clinton. how to you respond to that. >> first of all, i have no coordination with the super pact. marco rubio and his campaign has attacked me, ted cruz, christie, let's not feel like it's being pe picked on. every candidate will have their record scrutinized. i'm proud to have mine scrutinized because my record is accomplishment. >> what do you think of the super pack? what did you think of the add

for rubio? >> i think we need leaders that run to the challenge and fire if there's a problem. trst a lot of elected officials that don't face the problems. that is an important point. we're not electing a back venture to the united states senate. we're electing the president of the united states which means you have to lead. >> but jeb, do you own any platform boots that make you taller? >> i've got my cowboy boots on, big joe. >> do they make you three inches taller or are they normal cowboy boots? >> i don't have a high disk shoe. >> this is gene robinson from the washington post. >> gene, let me make it clear

here, i'm height changed. my wife tells me there's an inverse relationship between height and intelligence. so i'm struggling. >> my wife says the same thing. did you watch the state of the union last night? i'm curious as to what you thought of governor nicki hay lee's response to president obama and what you thought of that as a republicanmanifesto. >> i had a town hall meeting and got back to the hotel and saw part of the president's speech and governor hailey's speech. i thought she was remarkable actually. it's always a difficult thing to be the republican speaker after president obama but she did an extraordinary job and she talked about a more broader hopeful optimistic republican message. a conservative message that

draws people towards our country for the cause. i thought she did a great job. >> all right. governor jeb bush, thank you so much for being on the show. come back any time. >> you bet. >> all right. take care. new polling shows hillary clinton slipping in iowa. can chelsey clinton and bill clinton help stave off bernie sanders? chris christie and rand paul all joining us live. this friday we're going to des moin moines. we're going to iowa. the order is in. it's going to be chilly as you can see. we're going to be live at java joes in des moines. donald trump will be among us. can you see this? it's an image i want to see in real life. you're watching morning joe. we'll be right back. it's how i try to live... how i stay active. so i need nutrition... that won't weigh me down.

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welcome back to morning joe. with us now is pbs host tav

tava smiley. we're going to get to that in a moment. thank you for being on. congratulations on the book. we want to talk about the new polls which shows hillary clinton's lead slipping nationwide. a new cbs news new york times poll shows clinton leading sanders by seven points nationally 48-41. that's a 13 point swing in sander's favor since december. the poll shows that sanders is the most qualified to handle the economy. the poll also shows the iowa democrats view sanders as more hops and trustworthy by a wide margin. noerly 30% say clinton isn't

honest and trustworthy including four in ten men. a universe pole has sanders ahead by 14 points. the new numbers come as clinton continues to hammer away at her top opponent out on the trail. yesterday she got help from her daughter chelsey in new hampshire making her first solo public appearance of the 2016 campaign. >> senator sanders wants to dismantle obama care, the chip program, health care and the private insurance. republicans have voted against the affordable care act 55 times. not because they want to replace it but get rid of it. i'm worried if we give republicans democratic position to do that, we'll go back to an era before we had the affordable care act. that will strip millions and millions and millions of people

of their health insurance. >> don't talk to me about standing up in corporate interest and big powers. i have the scars to show for it and i'm proud of every single one of them. we have a big difference over guns, you know that. i think it's a telling difference because if you're going to go around saying you stand up to special interest, well, stand up to the most powerful special interest. stand up to that gun lobby. he wants to roll medicare, medicaid, children's health insurance program, affordable care act program and private health insurance into a national system and turn it over to the states to administer. if that's the kind of revolution he's talking about, i'm worried, folks. >> many worried about the polls that came out yesterday.

looking at the poll out of iowa a 16 point swing. new hampshire, sanders up in a lot of polls well over double dijs. i think 13-14 in a poll a saw a couple of days ago. what's happening in the clinton campaign and what's your prognosis? >> look, it's a hearts to mind issue. they went up this week with an elect blt add. i think that's the issue. there's a passion gap missing for hillary clinton. bernie sanders has it

particularly with younger voters and everything the clinton campaign has tried hasn't fired up a group of voters a lot of us thought would be fired up. we thought there would be a lot of women rallying to her side. you haven't had that moment yet. >> the shocking number for me, new york times poll shows voters under the age of 45, hillary clinton loses by a 2-1 margin. >> she was losing by issue of double digits in the economy. the clinton brand and the economy. there's no connection there.

she doesn't have, granted as far as most voters today view hillary clinton as former secretary of state. she doesn't get any of the positive that comes with bill clin tend and happens to pick up the negative. can i tell you for the life of me i don't get what the clinton campaign is up to by getting bernie sanders on obamacare. >> it's interesting you say that, chuck. al hunt on the air and couldn't believe they put out chelsey. mike said what are they doing with chelsey? it's not true. looking at this, sheer

craziness. it looks like we're going to know how the republican race is in iowa and new hampshire before the democratic race and democrat ek fights becoming, why is that? >> i think because people want this to be our real election and not a coronation. i think people want to see a fight. if there were a traffic accident in the establishment lane, they can't seem to get it together there. i was on this program a year ago and others saying even though i like hillary and consider her a friend i wanted there to be a challenge from the left. i took hell when i said that a year ago. my friends called and jumped on that. i love them all but i wanted this to be a fight. >> hillary is good when she's in a fight.

>> she is. if hillary's if nominee, she's going to be better because they had the fight each other like clinton. >> can somebody here at this table talk about bernie sanders? can you talk about what he brings to the table as a candidate and perhaps we have not really given him the coverage, the difference quiet frank lay and underestimated him every step of the way. this guy has been out in iowa, this guy out in new mexihampshi chris crossing the country. >> i think we wereny sanders has been uncovered. first of all, this is a year

where the establishment lane is going nowhere. this is a year people are looking for the authenticity. they're also looking for new ideas and new approaches. here comes bernie sander that's different and he's new for a lot of voters, he's new. as was said earlier, hillary clinton, a lot of people don't remember her. most voters or many voters don't remember her as first lady at all. therm her as senator from new york and secretary of state. they don't have the references we may have to her. bernie sanders, this is remarkable what he's done. >> really. and he's got the money too. >> so steve, let me ask you,

there's another number we didn't get to that shows bernie sanders closing the gap. a 13 point swing in the last month. despite the jump and increase for bernie sanders, the same poll was asked who do you think will be the nominee? 72% said hillary. i asked you can bernie sanders do to really ri clinton what barack obama did to hillary clinton a month ago? >> you can go back and look at how that number has moved in donald trump's direction. >> could that happen? >> of course, it could. right now, bernie sanders has momentum in the race. the question you asked, bernie sanders believes what it is coming out of his mouth.

he believes that deeply and passionately, he's authentic. >> wow, just wow. >> we can two to the launch as the original monument that the bill was coming. >> chuck todd, steve has a way with words. what happened? no disrespect to bernie sanders, but how did this happen? is this an issue of democrats just not sort of liking hillary clinton but not loving it, wishing there was another alternative? it is remarkable that we don't have, this is somebody

considered a senator that didn't make many pa appearances in the national scene very often and sort of out there. as steve just put it so bluntly, she turned a socialist into a tough opponent. >> thank you, steve, i get your point. i'll tell you it was a saturday night months ago i was watching cspan for hours and i watched bernie sanders for hours and i thought this guy is amazing. he's tireless and he's talking to every single person out there. >> shaking every hand and hugging everybody. >> something's going on here we're not understanding. >> thank you for your new book. we're going to talk about what's gotten worse and what's gotten better over the past 10 years? >> progress on sentencing and brought it down from 101 to

18-1. still not where it ought to be 1-1. we made some progress in that regard. the health care and obama care kicks in. all these conditions are going to make a different on black health. down the road it will. on the digital divide it's no longer race based, it's class based. the reporter pockets of progress. here's the bottom line. black americans have lost ground in every major economic category. it pains me to say that. in every major economic category 10 years ago we were here and lost ground in every one of them. i think the historians are going to have a real field day. how is it in the era of the first black president is bottom fell out for black america? >> i was going to ask you that. not only the era for the first black president but right now, what you said happened, eight of

those 10 years happened when you had a black president, a black attorney general, we've got a black woman running national security. you could go down the list really. many could say the most powerful aid inside the white house, a black woman. how could it be in those eight years where blacks in america have reached the ultimate power that for so many other americans things have gotten worse. >> number one, let's be clear these problems did exist before barack obama showed up. >> you said they're getting worse. >> they've gotten worse. here's why. in some ways black people have

been two differential to the president. they were sidelined and silenced. you have not because you ask not and got to make commands. look at where the gay lesbian community came from because they made demands. >> by the way, you made this warning eight years ago and you said it could be harder for a black president to be aggressive on black issues because he'll be perceived as a black president. >> black people are too differe differe differential. >> black folks didn't want to pile on number one and number two too much indifference for the rest of the country and certainly, that obstruction from the republicans. >> tavis smiley, thank you so much. >> come back. we love you. >> christie gave his state of the state in unanimously new je.

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thank you very much. it's good to be home. >> he wasn't home long. governor chris christie joins us live on the road in new hampshire after giving his own state of new jersey speech which

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state of the union will not be a call to action tonight, it will be a fancy wish list by a president whose failed us. it's the world as he wishes it was. the real world has failed leadership for all americans. for the last six years we've done it differently in new jersey. a lot of people in this room have shown the courage to set aside parts and differences and achieve progress. >> that's governor chris christie giving his state address. he was on his way to trenton. it's been so long since he's been there he took a wrong turn and ended up in baltimore. >> no he didn't. >> is that right, chris? >> absolutely not, joe. >> by the way, roll tide, chris. >> that was a very good game

though. >> too bad you didn't pander. >> all right. enough is enough. listen, first, let's talk about the state of the state address. what was your big idea? what was your big thing last night? well, you know, joe because we've done, i think such really cutting edge things on drug rehabilitation and our criminal justice system, i was able to announce yesterday we're closing a state prison. we're closing a state prison and instead of just moth balling it, what i proposed yesterday was to renovate it and we're going to turn it into a drug treatment facility, a certified drug treatment facility. we'll be able to treat over 700 people at a time in the facility when it reopens next year and it's going to put us on the edge of doing tngs for those in our criminal justice system and i announced over a hundred million dollars in new money to get

private -- across the state and treat those suffering from the illness and disease of drug adiction. >> steve. >> last year for the first time, joe, actually overdosed deaths went down in new jersey because of our statewide deployment. it's been a good success story and one i think we can bring through the rest of the country. >> governor, good morning. take us through the end game here over the last couple of weeks as you look ahead to iowa and new hampshire. look at the debate thursday. you have two acandidates who hae been on the stage. they will not be there and the field is narrowing. it's been a strength of yours. too many candidates on the stage for you to be able to break through properly. what's the game plan going into that debate and the finish of the campaign? >> as far as the debate goes, doing nothing differently than we've done before. because i spent so much time on the ground in new hampshire and

iowa, i know what the people in the country are concerned about. they're afraid for their safety and security, they're afraid for americans standing in the world and they want a president who will be president who will be strong, resolute and direct and can make decisions. the experience in fighting terrorism on the ground ourselves. with all of the tools that are necessary and adding more. so we're going to continue to talk about those things. secondly, we're not going to get into the side bickering that a lot of the other candidates are getting into. we're not going to do it. we'll keep our eye on the ball and keep talking about hillary clinton and having to defeat her if in fact she is able to get by bernie sanders in the democratic primary. >> good to see you. new monmouth university poll says you basically in new hampshire are in a pack of candidates behind donald trump. he is up 18, 20 points. cruz, kasich, rubio and christie. all behind together.

would a second-place finish in your heart of hearts, be okay with you in new hampshire? is that good enough to move on and say face donald trump in south carolina? >> willie, since in september you have the "new york times" calling for me to drop out of the race. you had me in ninth place. yeah, i think that would be just fine. and the fact is that we're going to work real hard here in new hampshire over the next four weeks and in iowa the next three. we'll be heading to iowa right after the debate. listen, what we need to do is to show that we are the best governor in this race. that's what we intend to show over the course of the next four weeks, that we're the person who provides the best executive experience, the best plan for the future and the best person to prosecute the case against hillary clinton on the stage next september. and so, yeah, if i came in second place in new hampshire, i think that would be a real good result for us. >> hey, governor, yesterday in your state of the state address -- and we just played a clip from it, obviously -- you

described the president of the united states in the stuate of the union in the world as he wishes it was. what was wrong with that to you? >> a lot of things are appealing except they're not true. you know, he talked about the policy in syria working well. ask the 250,000 dead syrians if they think the policy is working so well. i mean, that's what i mean about it being a fantasy, mike. we're helping syrians to struggle together? well, they're fleeing for europe. the fourth largest city in jordan is now a refugee camp. and he calls the syrian policy a success. he minimizes the threat of isis. he minimizes the threat of al qaeda. this is a guy who lives in the world as he wishes it was. and he's continuing to harken back to the murder of osama bin

laden. we're all very proud and happy that our s.e.a.l. team was able to murder osama bin laden and bring him ultimately to justice and i commend the president for authorizing that action. you know, that was a long time ago now. since that time we have dead bodies in paris, we have dead bodies in san bernardino, we have dead bodies in turkey, and this president believes that we're right where we need to be on this and that the only reason we're all anxious and worried and because we watch too much cable news. he lives in his own world, mike. he is just looking to get out of town as quickly as he possibly can. >> all right. governor chris christie, thank you so much. greatly appreciate you being with us. we'll see you very soon. >> yes. still ahead, senator rand paul joins us live here on set. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. woman: it's been a journey to get where i am. and i didn't get here alone. there were people who listened along the way. people who gave me options. kept me on track.

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up next, international crisis averted. ten american sailors held by iran overnight are freed this morning, but not without a warning from the revolutionary guard. we'll get a report from tehran. hillary clinton and her daughter chelsea team up to take on bernie sanders. as one poll shows him chipping away at her national lead and another has him in the lead in iowa. and it goes on. and later, senator rand paul joins us on set to explain why he's saying no thanks to tomorrow's undercard debate. "morning joe" is back in a moment.

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we're following breaking news this morning. the ten u.s. navy sailors who were taken into custody yesterday by iran have now been set free. but not without a warning from the iranian revolutionary guard. good morning. it is wednesday, january 13th. welcome to "morning joe." with us on set we have veteran columnist and msnbc contributor mike barnicle, the president of the council on foreign relations richard haas. in washington columnist for "bloomberg view" al hunt. columnist and associate editor for the "washington post," david ignatius. the pentagon confirms ten american sailors have been released from iranian custody.

they were held overnight on farsi island in the persian gulf. two navy vessels were moving betweenqua between kuwait and bahrain. it was said on state television that the boats entered territorial waters after a failure in their navigation systems. iranian military forces seized both vessels and detained the sailors. nine men and one woman. let's bring in nbc news correspondent and tehran bureau chief for more, ali arusi in tehran. >> the revolutionary guard has issued a statement saying that the ten sailors have been released after they initially took them in iranian territorial waters. initially the revolutionary guard said that they were suspicious of their activities. but now that they have said, after a thorough investigation they realized that their navigational systems failed and they accidentally drifted into iranian waters that there was nothing suspicious, there was no

espionage related to this and they've now set them free and they're now with their unit. now, the revolutionary guard here released pictures of the american sailors in iranian detention, an image you don't usually see. but thankfully it's all ended diplomatically and peacefully. i think one of the reasons that has happened is because of the nuclear deal. iran and america have been talking to each other extensively during the course of this deal, and because of that secretary kerry could talk to foreign minister zarif about this issue and sort things out diplomatically. this would have been unheard of before the negotiations between the two countries. so this is one good thing that's come out of it. i'm sure we'll get more details of the release during the day. >> we'll be watching. thank you very much. i suppose that's one way to paint a silver lining around the fact that this regime continues one provocation after another

provocation after another provocation, following supposedly a historic deal that was going to bring them into the community of nations. richard. october the 10th, of course, is when they test long-range missiles, which are -- which many believed was a clear violation. the same week, the country's chief judge convicted a "washington post" reporter, keeping him in jail. of course, iran sending additional ground troop to syria, now seizing u.s. ships and sailors holding them overnight. tell me again, why did the president do a deal with this thuggish regime that's been the epicenter of terrorism since 1979? >> the best argument for the deal is that it was a narrow deal, that it dealt with aspects of the iranian nuclear -- >> it allows them to old our people hostage. to break ballistic missile

treaties. >> it was never meant to deal with those other things. i think there was a hope in the white house that it would set in motion trends that would integrate iran. that was a hope, not a strategy. >> how has that hope played out? i'll back off and just ask you the question this way. are you surprised that we continue to see one provocation after another from the iranians? >> no, because the deal not only was a narrow nuclear-only deal, indeed the reasons -- the principle reason the iranians released these soldiers right away is because they are looking for a bounty, whether it's $50 billion or a hundred billion dollars. it was give them more resources to pursue their foreign policy. plus the iranians have a lot on their plate. they have what's going on in iraq and what's going on in syria and saudi arabia. they don't need a distraction right now with the united states. but this was a narrow nuclear deal, and the idea that it was

somehow going to lead to a broader -- >> david ignatius, perhaps it was a hope. you'll called the deal itself a cos mmic gamble. i'm wondering, do we enter into deals that kidnap "washington post" reporters and seem to try to pick a different way to be provocative? week in and week out. >> joe, no question that iranian bad behavior continues. seizing these sailors is the latest example. this could have escalated quickly into a very, very dangerous crisis. and my takeaway this morning is that this shows first that the iranians really want this deal to go through. next week is implementation day, the beginning of the process that will lead to release of their assets. they want the money. the second thing that it shows me is that the more moderate forces, the foreign minister

zarif, the president, rouhani, have enough control in the system to impose an outcome to free the sailors. >> on your second point. can you explain to our viewers and americans -- because this is one thing that many don't understand about iran. you could ask who is in charge in iran, and there's no clear answer. there hasn't been a clear answer for some time. >> that's part of the problem. >> yeah. >> this is a country that internally is still at war. the forces that would like to see a more modern iran, the forces that led the engagement in the negotiation with the united states are not dominant. they are every day facing tests, battles with the hard-liners. the irgc forces on farsi island that seized these two boats might have turned this into an incident. might have brought them back to tehran. final point. this was militarily not strong

ground on which the iranians would fight. it's very close to u.s. naval facilities in bahrain. this would have been a heck of a battle if they had held them any longer. >> david, one of the things that i have heard late yesterday is that this deepening divide within iran poses somewhat of a threat to our relationship, our future relationship with iran. they have hard-liners, and you have a government seeking to get the deal done and that, when news reached iran from the state department yesterday afternoon, there was some amazement that it had indeed occurred out in the ocean, that american sailors had indeed been way-laid. >> i wouldn't be surprised if zarif was shocked when john kerry called him and told him this. it is true. the confrontation between the hard-liners and the moderates in tehran is growing worse. there will be elections in iran

next month, february 26th, really worth following carefully because it will test whether the iran parliament will become more moderate or whether the hard-liners through very drastic measures will prevent candidates were running. keep your eye on that. that will tell you where this country is going over the next few years. >> get to presidential politics. new polling on the democratic side shows hillary clinton's lead slipping nationwide and bernie sanders out-performing her in both iowa and new hampshire. cbs "new york times" poll shows her leading nationally 48% to 41%. a new quinnipiac poll out of iowa shows sanders in the lead. up nine points and hillary down seven points. >> that's an 18-point swing. >> actually a 16-point swing.

>> the poll shows iowa democrats feel clinton is best qualified to handle foreign policy and terrorism but that sanders is most qualified to handle the economy. the poll also shows iowa democrats view sanders more honest and trustworthy by a wide margin. 93% say bernie sanders is honest and trustworthy and only 3% say he is not. >> i saw part of a "new york times" poll and the analysis of it, willie, that for democratic voters 45 years or younger, in that national poll, bernie sanders leads by a two-to-one margin. >> it's an amazing phenomenon. a 74-year-old guy from brooklyn and burlington, vermont, and millennials love the guy. the numbers bear it out. >> it's a movement. >> i think on the republican side we talked about bush fatigue, we talked about the possibility of clinton fatigue. again, a lot of these voters, if you're 38 years or younger, you

have never voted for bill clinton. >> how about just bernie excitement. i think they like him. coming out of nowhere. >> i'm just saying, there are a lot of younger voters that said, okay, bush-clinton, we've seen it. we don't want that. let's move forward. >> a structural advantage of cause candidates as opposed to centrist candidates. it's easier to project a clean, clear message that can get people galvanized. >> let's hop over to new hampshire. monmouth university poll has sanders ahead by 14 points. pe the new numbers come as secretary clinton continues to hammer away at her top opponent on the trail yesterday getting help from her daughter chelsea who was in new hampshire making hir first solo public appearance of the 2016 campaign. >> senator sanders wants to dismantle obamacare, dismantle the chip program, dismantle medicare, dismantle private

insurance. now, the republicans in congress this voted against the affordable care act 55 times. right? not because they want to replace it with something, because they want to get rid of it. so i worry that, if we give republicans democratic permission to do that, we'll go back to an era before we had the affordable care act. that will strip millions and millions and millions of people of their health insurance. >> don't talk to me about standing up to corporate interests and big powers. i've got the scars to show for it, and i am proud of ever single one of them! we have a big difference over guns. you know that. and i think it's a telling difference because, if you're going to go around saying you stand up to special interests, well, stand up to the most powerful special interest. stand up to that gun lobby. >> he wants to roll medicare, medicaid, the children's health insurance program, affordable

care act program, and private health insurance into a national system and then turn it over to the states to administer. now if -- if that's the kind of revolution he's talking about, i am worried, folks. >> al hunt. let's talk about, first of all, you know, hillary and chelsea going after bernie sanders pretty aggressively and apparently having very good reason to do that if you look at the "new york times" poll and the new polls out of iowa and new hampshire. what's happening in this campaign? >> well, joe, in the football parlance, they hear footsteps. they know that they're in for a very difficult race. i was disappointed to see chelsea clinton yesterday, not because she is not entitled to say things, but she was just dead wrong. she can't equate what bernie sanders proposes with that republicans have sought to do in congress. he wants a national health

insurance program. maybe good, maybe bad, but it's not to get rid of health insurance for everybody. they really are nervous, joe. they think there is a decided possibility they could lose both those first two contests. doesn't necessarily change the odds of the ultimate nominee, but it weakens her and it means we're going to be going at this for a long, long time in the democratic side. >> so many people look -- we had this discussion with somebody else yesterday -- they look, al, at the numbers in all these states as being static. not realizing that, if hillary clinton loses iowa and hillary clinton loses new hampshire, that suddenly south carolina, which looks so comfortable right now, well, that will be a win for her. well, i remember mika interviewing michelle obama early in the 2008 campaign, and they were talking about the frustration of black americans voting more for hillary clinton than barack obama. that changed very quickly too.

i mean, the clintons have been here, they have seen this before. it happened in 2008. >> this is actually where she is at her best. >> it's when she gets better. >> when she gets good. people get out of the way. >> what exactly, al, do you see? what is going wrong with this campaign that was supposed to be a walk in the park? >> well, she really hasn't done much wrong. i mean, she has put out serious position papers. she has -- it's a well-run campaign. i think it goes to what you alluded to earlier. people just -- there is fatigue. young voters, i am just stunned by how poorly she does with young voters. there is no excitement, there is no enthusiasm. can she change that? perhaps she can. bernie has all of that, however. he also has 2.4 million contributors already, mainly small dollars. if he wins iowa and new hampshire, there is going to be

a niagara falls of contributions coming in. this thing is just going to go on for a while. still ahead, president obama used the state of the union to claim our standing in the world is higher since he was elected. plus, senator rand paul joins us live after skipping out on the president's speech. last night on twitter, he channelled this moment from 2009. >> the reforms -- the reforms i am proposing would not apply to those who are here illegally. not true. we'll talk to the senator from kentucky about that when he joins us on set. first. bill karins. >> getting cold! last night, here we are. what month are we in? so january. january. what year is it, willie. >> let me look at the paper. >> 2016. we're in the middle of january, and, you know, i live in new england, you know. sort of a robert frost kind of guy.

horse and carriage buggy going home. making sure the fences are all lined up right. i see my first snow flakes of the year. first snow flakes in new england of the year in the middle of january. isn't that crazy? >> each one was different. >> i thought so. >> let's just go to bill which will be more interesting than this. bill. >> i saw my first snow flakes yesterday too. washington, d.c., did too. people around philadelphia. we didn't get the snow they did in indiana. the timing of the snow squall was brutal during the early morning commute on i-70. this pileup went on for three miles. look at the carnage of vehicles all over the place. thankfully no one was hurt and very few injuries. snow this morning. the snow storm is gone. now we have lake effect snow piling up. the only high totals will be south of buffalo and north of syracuse. that's typical.

they expect it this time of year. temperatures. the windchill value the worst chicago to green bay. negative 19 and negative 14. for cincinnati, negative 2. dc at 13. asheville at 9 and memphis at 22. eastern half of the country is gripped by the cold. but it's not going to last. that's what's happening this winter. we have a cold blast and then warm it up. 51 in oklahoma city today. 55 in montana. at least you get a little break from the cold blasts. the next one, by the way, comes down this weekend. that one looks to be just as cold as the current one we're dealing with. it's that time of year, middle of winter. still no signs of big snow storms to move across the country. new york city, no snow flakes yesterday. could be some saturday. more on that in the days ahead. you're watching "morning joe." with my moderate to severe ulcerative colitis, the possibility of a flare was almost always on my mind.

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welcome back to "morning joe." joining us now, the president and ceo of the aspen institute, walter isaacson. >> who is saw going to be a conference in tehran. >> we're trying to bring joe around to the david ignatius -- >> the tehran ideas festival. >> a beautiful old city. >> also with us msnbc political correspondent kasie hunt. there she is. good to have you as well. >> the president's final state of the union was interesting for what it was as well as what it was not. >> the president made no mention of the international standoff over american sailors detained by iran. >> were you surprised by that? >> i was surprised because the secretary of state was there because i just -- i guess they had other people -- they were on it. i wasn't surprised that he

didn't touch on it because it was sensitive and in motion. >> too fast-moving. and also, it was a tactical blip. it was right not to mention it. what's more interesting is all the big strategic things he didn't mention. >> he did hail his landmark nuclear deal, though, while he was at it. despite his recent executive action he made only one reference to guns. >> why do we think that is? i was surprised by that. >> it was half a sentence. >> why didn't he -- would seem to me he would have spoken about it much more, especially when it's a 90-10 issue when you talk about stopping terrorists from being able to go to gun shows and buy guns. >> he left an empty seat in the balcony for the victims of gun violence. all the symbols were there. >> maybe he thought "morning joe" would talk about it more if he didn't say anything. >> strategizing already. >> i will say, one of his --

maybe you can bring that up again in tehran. at the next conference. we can have a whole debate over that as well as, you know, high jacking american boats and holding americans hostage during the state of the union address. i want to be on that panel. one of the president's finest moment, i think we'd all agree, would be the state of the union after newtown. i thought that was about as extraordinary political theater and i say that with great respect, that i've seen. that's why i was surprised not a mention last night. especially in chicago over the past week, what, a hundred people shot? >> what i thought was interesting about the speech is what he did at the end, which was the indictment of the american political process. and i wish he had actually developed that and come out with a much larger critique and some specifics about what he would favor. i thought he was on to something. as always with state of the unions you end up with something that's so diluted, a little bit of this and a little bit of that

and you end up without an impact. >> one of the central themes was saying no nation attacks the u.s. or its allies because they know that's the path to ruin. >> surveys show our standing around the world is higher than when i was elected to this office, and when it comes to every important international issue, people of the world do not look to beijing or moscow to lead. they call us. i told you earlier, all the talk of america's economic decline is political hot air. well, so is all the rhetoric you hear about our enemies getting stronger and america getting weaker. let me tell you something. the united states of america is the most powerful nation on earth. period. [ applause ] >> but the american people should know that, with or without congressional action, isil will learn the same lessons as terrorists before them. if you doubt america's

commitment or mind to see that justice is done, just ask osama bin laden. [ applause ] >> ask -- ask the leader of al qaeda in yemen who was taken out last year. or the perpetrator of the benghazi attacks who sits in a prison cell. when you come after americans, we go after you. and it may take time, but we have long memories and our reach has no limits. >> wanted dead or alive. little bushy in him. that's 43 right there. >> or some clint eastwood too. >> paul ryan, though? >> squirming there. >> no game face. >> he had a really good game face. >> unh-unh. >> he did. >> no. >> when the president got to the part where he said we're more respected today than ever before. >> his face twisted into a pretzel.

>> he started twitching. i started doing it while i was watching. richard, i've seen polls that suggest the opposite is true, that our standing is not higher in the world today. >> particularly in the middle east. relations with our so-called friends and allies is weaker. american reliability is way down after all the -- you know, the syrian red lines, egypt. also relations with russia, with china worsened. it's very -- yes, it's the most powerful country in the world but the situation. it's hard for the president to argue we're better off or safer. >> an ideas-fest in tehran. we'll talk with walter with the two countries where we have better relations. cuba and iran. thank god for that. >> gothe president did talk abo cuba. >> just having fun. >> the one thing he did say, again, we heard in the clip earlier -- he talked about rhetoric, about our enemies getting stronger.

it's not just rhetoric. the american people know that isis is rising all over the world. it happened in istanbul again yesterday. he has this thing where he tries to tamp down and minimize the threat of that. >> he always does that. >> some people do overstate it, that's true, but i think the american people are worried about it. coming up on "morning joe," senator rand paul says he is running a first-tier campaign so he'll sit out the next debate after being assigned to the undercard stage. he joins us live next on the set to talk about how he can win the nomination, when "morning joe" continues. ♪ your path to retirement... may not always be clear. but at t. rowe price, we can help guide your retirement savings. for over 75 years, investors have relied on our disciplined approach to find long term value. so wherever your retirement journey takes you, we can help you reach your goals. call a t. rowe price retirement specialist or your advisor ...to see how we can help make the most of your retirement savings.

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the reforms -- the reforms i am proposing would not apply to those who are here illegally. not true. >> that was south carolina congressman joe wilson's infamous interruption of president obama's speech to congress back in 2009. and last night senator rand paul channelled that moment on twitter, writing, i just yelled "you lie" really loud. good thing i'm not there. the republican presidential candidate is here. you did that? come on. >> what were you watching? were you watching old reruns of "the apprentice"? what were you watching. >> we thought it was funny and a joke. i obviously wouldn't say that in public because i thought it was

incredibly rude. we responded when people asked what were you watching, we said, well, that was when he said the speech was going to be shorter. >> okay. i am okay now. >> twitter is known for being a little snarky and for having a sense of humor. >> i have to get that. all right. >> let me ask you, senator. obviously you're not happy about being cut out of the debate. and the most, i think, most people would have said the most accurate poll in all of iowa says that you are in fifth place by yourself. >> des moines register came out this morning. in fifth by ourselves in front of three people that they're going to put in the debate. >> i think that's part of their own guidelines. you should therefore be in the debate. >> this one is within their guidelines, within their framework, and we are telling them today they should be counting it. >> your poll last week nbc had the same thing. fifth place in iowa. >> if it's the most reliable poll in iowa and has been for years. everybody knows that.

why are you being kept out? >> i think it's unclear, but i think that the polling shows that we should be. it shows that we are clearly ahead of several of the candidates. the other thing is -- >> trying to elbow you out? >> my concern is -- here is the question. i have a unique voice. i am the one voice saying we shouldn't make the sand glow. i am the voice saying we shouldn't be collecting all the government shouldn't be collecting all your records and saying we shouldn't lock up every kid for marijuana. do they not want that unique voice in the party? many of our supporters fluctuate whether they're going to stay in the republican party or vote for a libertarian candidate. the libertarian candidate holds the margin of difference a lot of times in races. do they really not want the liberty voters in their party? >> i was critical of your reaction and then joe brought up a point and a story about himself, of course, when he wasn't -- didn't do a debate and actually made something of it. so i wonder if now, especially with looking at these numbers, if there is more noise you can

make, more of an impact you can make not taking part in the debate. >> while the debate is going on. >> well, we will. the other thing is we will be letting them know today that they should be counting the des moines register poll and seeing if they want to reassess or maybe if there was an error in calculations. this new poll was not included but it does fall within the deadline. the bottom line is, i don't think anybody in the media should decide or haven a artificial designation on who can or cannot win. that's what it does. three weeks out, if you're telling voters, you're not in the first tier, what does it tell your voters? >> who is the most responsible for the decision? the network or the republican party or both? >> i think it's the republican party. they have been saying for months they're going to narrow the field. but i don't think it's the job of the establishment in the republican party to decide who is and who isn't. we have a thousand precinct chairs in iowa, a bigger and stronger organization arguably than any candidate in iowa.

i don't think it's fair for them to arbitrarily say, well, we've decided that, because you're .2 behind somebody in some arbitrary polls with an arbitrary setting, that we're not going to include you. >> i don't like it. >> i think it's the party. the republican party said they want a big party, a big tent. it's not a big tent if you push out all the liberty voters. >> the republican establishment is kind of having a bad cycle, not doing too well. does it still exist? is there a single voice or a comprehensive idea for the republican party at this point, given what we have seen in this campaign? >> i think there has always been sort of an inside-washington party and an outside-washington party and there's always been a disconnect between the grass roots and the establishment. i think the establishment, probably in both parties, lingers a decade behind the voters. for example, even on the democratic side when you see the

enthusiasm for bernie sanders. people really do think hillary clinton is yesterday's news and they're worried about the corruption and dishonesty and the emails. they are. that's why they're flocking to bernie sanders. i don't think they're quite sure that socialism is the answer for the country, but i do think there is a lot of discontent on both sides. >> how do you bridge some of these seemingly unbridgeable divisions? for example, there are a lot of people in the party who agree with you on foreign policy, who believe that we should be more modest and cautious in our interventions that we can't do nation-building everywhere, et cetera, et cetera. that's not a policy of the establishment party. and again, you know, there is this other wing of the party that, no, let's go in and do everything. >> that's why the debates have been incredibly important. in the last debate we had i think the best discussion of foreign policy in our country over regime change. is it a good or bad idea. are we safer or less safe by tolling gadhafi and assad.

this is important. on both sides of the aisle, hillary clinton wanted a no-fly zone. if you're going to have a no-fly zone in an area where russia already flies are you willing to shoot down russian planes. apparently christie is. that worries me. >> i have talked about this clearly on the show, that it seems that rubio gets a disproportionate amount of press, positive press, fawning press, not only from the mainstream media but also from the republican establishment. do you think that that is in large part because of the last issue that you brought up, the fact that he is a neocon the way george w. bush was a neocon. the way richard pearl was a neocon and the way dick cheney was. do you think that has something to do with it? do you agree that he is a super-charged neocon? >> yes.

kato looked at all the candidates and said who is most likely to take us back to war in the middle east and actually it's hillary clinton with rubio being a close second, looking at all their statements, what do they want to do, who do they want to arm and what's their propensity to be involved. actually hillary clinton is the most likely to take us back to war in the middle east. i think that's the disconnect in the democratic party. my goodness, we're not the party that should be wanting to be involved everywhere all the time. i think that's where brrernie sanders is coming around. >> thank you, rand paul. come back. >> you should be in the debate. >> maybe he will be. still ahead. u.s. futures climbing up. we'll go live to the new york stock exchange for that. it's back to the future for the st. louis rams. word this morning they'll be packing their bags for los angeles. >> the rams back in l.a. >> they're going! >> roman gabriel. everything seems like, you know what, the way it should be.

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competitors do on desktop. you work so late. i guess you don't see your family very much? i see them all the time. did you finish your derivatives pricing model, honey? td ameritrade. . it's unbelievable. it's creepy. i'm telling you. >> i don't like it. >> i don't like it. it's creepy. >> there is something wrong with us, though. >> i don't think so. i think we're on the cutting edge. >> really? it's just too much. and the amount of time you just sit there. >> it's very invasive. we're talking, by the way, about the new phenomenon sex robots. >> no we're not. >> we were talking about facebook. we still don't get it. granted we're old. i tried to get on it three times. every time i get on it, 24 hours

later i'm shutting it down. you've got these people that -- >> hey, i knew you in 8th grade. >> trying to friend you. do you want to know about this nfl team going to l.a.? after more than two decades, yeah, the drought is finally over. team owners voted yesterday to allow the st. louis rams to relocate back to l.a. for the 2016 season where they will play in a temporary stadium for three years before moving into their new home in englewood, california. mike, i don't want to knock our dear friends in st. louis, okay, but the cardinals are in st. louis. if they want them back from arizona, fine with me. for me, in all these years i've never been able to get my arms around the st. louis rams. the rams, i like the white and blue stripes better. but the rams are an l.a. team. roman gabriel, jack youngblood. it's l.a., man. >> it's astonishing that los

angeles has been without an nfl franchise for as long -- >> second biggest city in the country without an nfl franchise. >> the game is changing. >> i believe it is a uniquely baseball town. just baseball. >> what i don't like, though, the chargers talking about moving up to l.a. we don't need two l.a. teams. >> you have to have two l.a. teams. >> what about san diego? >> they want a stadium. everybody wants a stadium. if they won't get a stapled there, they'll share it in englewood. >> kroenke will build a state-of-the-art billion-plus stadium. >> the raiders are talking about going back to l.a. >> it's going to be the chargers. >> they're looking for someplace else to go. >> why? >> they want a stadium. >> the oakland raiders are the oakland raiders. >> oakland will get money from the nfl to completely refurbish their existing stadium.

>> they need to do that. jack tatum. >> the game is changing. >> i have to tell you, i am sorry. i know i shouldn't have. >> stolen cross-bow. >> i just love atkinson. i loved the raiders. >> you just have to stop. it's time now -- before the bell. >> george bland, not only kicked until he was like in his 40s. he was quarterback. my dad would get so ticked off every time they would have darrell lamonica in instead of bland. the game is too dangerous. sara. we'll shift the conversation to stocks. we could be looking at a bounce here at the open after the worst start to a year ever. number one, the price of oil is actually rising for the first time all year. things have calmed down a bit in the energy pits. in china, which everybody has been worried about this year, put out better than expected trade numbers on exports and

imports. their currency has been a little calmer. those two things could help fuel another rally on wall street. the price of oil will be a key factor. down more than 70% since just june of 2014 when it was in triple digits. it's a big factor here on wall street. also want to point out, the year of the autonomous car. we're getting more and more information about what this is going to look like. yesterday google put out a new report. it was commissioned by the state of california. showing us this. they've been testing it for a while, between september 2014 and november 2015. turns out they reported 272 failures, and those cars that have crashed at least 13 times if people did not come in and intervene. we're not quite there yet, but the cars are getting smarter. so it's up for debate. >> you know, i don't think i'll ever be able to do that after seeing that on silicon valley.

>> thank you so much. one guy we didn't mention, the best of the best. falling down. >> kenny stabler. >> kenny stabler. >> the snake. >> alabama guy. >> he is an alabama boy, he was. god bless him. still ahead one of the most pressing questions you have to ask yourself today. are you going to take your powerball winnings over 30 years or in a lump sum. >> lump sum. >> lump sum. >> out of here.

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are killed by guns in thisple country every single day. it has to stop. president obama wants to make universal background checks the law of the land. and he wants to make sure gun manufacturers can finally be held accountable when their guns are used to kill our children. it's time to pick a side. either we stand with the gun lobby... ...or we join the president... ...and stand up to them. i'm with him. please join us. i'm hillary clinton and i approve this message. ♪ ♪ those who define sophistication stand out. those who dare to redefine it stand apart. the all-new lexus rx and rx hybrid. never has luxury been this expressive. this is the pursuit of perfection.

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triple the previous jackpot. i sure you know the odds of winning the lottery are not very good. for some reason our local and cable news channels are obsessed with reminding us of this. >> you have a better chance of dating a supermodel. >> the odds of becoming an astronaut are better. >> 25 times more likely to being president of the united states. >> to be killed by a vending machine. >> hurt by a toilet. >> conceive quadruplets naturally. >> canonized as a saint. >> to be struck by lightning and a bus at the exact. [ explosion ] >> i don't know about the other stuff. >> wow! >> there is $1.5 billion on the line in tonight's powerball drawing. did you get a ticket? joining us now, msnbc contributor and correspondent for the upshot at the "new york

times." josh barrow. he writes why the winner should choose yearly payments instead of a lump sum. i agree. i agree. discipline! >> this is -- two key reasons to take the annuity. most do take the lump sum. one is discipline. you can't spend it all if you take the annuity. importantly when your friends and family come to you about how they need money -- >> you don't have it. >> the first check is only $23 million. i really don't have that much. >> i get $900 million if i win it outright, right? >> right. >> cash on the barrel head. >> there is a tax advantage to taking the annuity. it's like having an enormous i.r.a. with like $900 million in it sitting in treasury bonds and the government is holding that money, investing it for you. they don't pay tax on any of that investment. it's throwing off more than $20 million a year in tax-free income. either way you have a ton of

money. >> there you go! >> if i take 900 -- >> 30. >> $930 million or whatever, i take my money in cash and, after taxes it's, what, a mere $600 million. >> depending on the state. >> i can afford to hire an attorney to give me really good tax advice, among other things. >> you can hire the law firm. >> bernie madoff. i work with him. very good with money. >> you can great tax advice but you can't beat a tax rate of zero. you can tax manage the thing fairly well but it will never be -- >> josh, this helps no one. thank you. >> i'm going to win, so it helps me. >> one question. if you're going to win, josh, what do you do about your in-laws? >> this is why you take the annuity, right? sorry. the first check is only about $23 million, $24 million. >> seriously, you can't help anybody with that. >> i like the cayman islands. >> i like the way you think, josh barrow.

thank you for coming on. >> i'm going to win. nobody else needs to buy a ticket. up next, what did we learn today? ♪ mmm, a perfect 177-degrees. and that's why this road warrior rents from national. i can bypass the counter and go straight to my car. and i don't have to talk to any humans, unless i want to. and i don't. and national lets me choose any car in the aisle. control. it's so, what's the word?... sexy. go national. go like a pro. in my business i cbailing me out my i.all the time... i'm not the i.t. guy. i'm the desktop support tech supervisor. and my customers knowing right when their packages arrive. introducing real-time delivery notifications. learn more at myusps.com

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and smooth the appearance of wrinkles. the 88th southern parallel. we had traveled for over 850 miles. my men driven nearly mad from starvation and frostbite. today we make history. >>bienvenidos! welcome to the south pole! if you're dora the explorer, you explore. it's what you do. >>what took you so long? if you want to save fifteen percent or more on car insurance, you switch to geico. it's what you do. >>you did it, yay! legalzoom has your back. for your business, our trusted network of attorneys has provided guidance to over 100,000 people just like you.

visit legalzoom today. the legal help you can count on. legalzoom. legal help is here. you've finally earned enough on your airline credit card. now you just book a seat, right? not quite. sometimes those seats are out of reach, costing an outrageous number of miles. it's time to switch... to the capital one venture card. with venture, you'll earn unlimited double miles on every purchase, every day. and when you're ready to travel, just book the flight you want, on any airline and use your miles to cover the cost. now that's more like it. what's in your wallet? welcome back to "morning joe." time to talk about what we learned. south by southwest, one of the great music festivals out. put a picture up. notably, now on the corner -- >> yeah. >> of fifth and david. >> excellent.

>> bowie boulevard in austin, texas. >> i love it. i want to go to that. >> i learned that usually there are just endless, stupid, insipid conversations about the powerball and josh found a way to at least make it fun. it means nothing to no one. >> that's like all of your conversations with me. >> it looked like i was getting there. but sometimes it's not about you. >> what did you learn? >> oh, my god. that was a joke. >> i learned that there is another side -- there is another side to chelsea clinton. >> oh, my gosh. >> it's got, you know, bared teeth. >> i don't know, but they're talking about her possibly running. everybody says chelsea clinton is an extraordinary woman. >> she is great. same with hillary. >> i learned a little about myself. after i win the powerball this evening i'll come in here tomorrow to say good-bye to all

of you. then that will be it. i'll be gone. >> you and your sex robot will ride into the sunset. >> my sex robot has a headache. >> way too early. "morning joe." but stick around. "msnbc live" is coming up next. i took my time. good morning. i am josé díaz-balart. ten american sailors have been released by iran a day after their boats were stopped in the persian gulf and they were taken into custody. the nine men and one woman were held on farsi island in the gulf overnight. these pictures were distributed by the iranian revolutionary guard. the navy says the sailors were allowed to leave just before 4:00 a.m. eastern and were picked up by the u.s. military. we have this covered at home and abroad. nbc's tehran bureau chief ali arruzzi is live in iran. what does the fact that they