two events in north carolina. lit beth warren campaigns in las vegas. bernie sanders holds an event in minneapolis. >> a lot going on. that's going to do it for us on this tuesday. i'm betty this tuesday. >> "morning joe" starts right now. >> the unfairness of the tax laws is unbelievable, and it's something i have been talking about for a long time despite being a beneficiariy of the laws, and i am working for you and not for trump. >> good morning. it's tuesday, october 4th. welcome to "morning joe." with us on set, we have veteran columnist, mike barnicle and mark halperin, and jon meacham, and in washington, msnbc political analyst eugene

robinson. joe, we have been waiting to see if that debate had any affect on donald trump and hillary clinton, and this morning we have got the numbers. >> and not just -- i don't think it's the debate so much as what happened after the debate, the man had what some call the worst week in presidential history and you look at the rambling second half of the performance and the fat shaming and all the other things that happened that week and then makes fun of hillary clinton, her pneumonia, and it really -- it has been a really bad week for him, so you would expect a massive swing in hillary's direction. >> let's look at the states, and now clinton has opened up a five-point lead, 46 to 41. clinton has a four-point lead in pennsylvania, and gary johnson falling four points there.

in ohio, trump maintains a five-point lead, with both trump and clinton up since the last poll, and gary johnson down eight. and johnson down eight points in north carolina with clinton and trump both rising again, and clinton leads there, 46 to 43 inside the margin of error, and a bloomberg poll shows clinton leading by just 1%, and while the trend lines had shown trump closing the gap in colorado, a new poll has clinton up 11 points there. mark halperin, just doesn't look like the sort of lead and the sort of swing you would expect, and donald trump still ahead by five points in ohio, and he was up six points from the last time the poll was ta n

taken, and pennsylvania, hillary clinton only up by four points, only by four points, and she is campaigning there twice today, and not a good sign for a democrat in october. by this point, republicans are usually giving up the ghost there. and donald trump went up four points there, up five or six points in ohio, and what do you make of these polls? >> well, the floor did not collapse on trump but she benefited from the last week, not just from the debate but the aftermath, and mika pointed out gary johnson's decline as voters focus on the reality of who the next president is going to be, and trump entered the debate with momentum and virtually caught up and he now a week later is further behind, but the floor has not collapsed on him and if he has a good week, a good second debate, he can get right back in it, but the

electoral college path these polls show makes it difficult for him to feel confident. >> willie, what does trump -- >> everybody was so concerned thinking this is what i was worried about. this is not significant. >> well, he had a rambling second half of the debate, and you look after that, and again, the body shaming and calling somebody fat, miss universe fat for weighing 150 and 160 pounds, and attacking her character and wining about the microphone and not paying taxes in 15 years, mocking hillary clinton for passing out, and then just as a throw away line, accusing her of adulte adultery, and the saturday night speech may have been the low point in all of donald trump's

speeches, and he's up four in pennsylvania and up five in ohio, and up five of a gain in north carolina. this is not a man who is collapsing in the polls. far from it. >> there are not that many people who have not made up their minds, and if you love donald trump, you really love donald trump, and it goes back to the thing if i walk into fifth avenue and i shoot somebody -- >> i am starting to previous that. >> if you look at the reaction to the tax stories about the 18 years he may not have paid taxes, and he says and his followers say, yeah, because i am a smart businessman. i don't think there's that much wiggle room in the middle anymore. >> i want to clarify, in the ohio poll, can you put that poll up and the pennsylvania poll right after that, and i said he

was up five, and what i meant was he has gained four or five points in the polls, ahead in ohio, and behind if pennsylvania, and we will show you what i mean. in ohio, donald trump up by five points, but he has gained six points just over the past couple of weeks. you go over to pennsylvania, and he's down, and only down by four points, and pretty remarkable in october, especially considering what donald trump has been saying, and he's up two. this does not look like a man who is paying any price for what has just been in a bismol week in american politics, which suggests what i was saying yesterday, donald trump just may be voters' default position in 2016. >> on the tax issue, which we will get to now, and you mentioned it, it's a media narrative as well as the clinton campaign is getting this one

wrong. nearly three quarters of americans want to see trump's tax returns and he gave his first republic response from the report to the "new york times," and while he still has not confirmed nor denied the claim, trump did defend using what he calls aquote, unfair tax syst. >> i understand the tax laws better than almost anyone, which is why i am one that can truly fix them, i understand and i get it, and that is what i commit to do. we want fairness. we want money brought in, and we want money to be spent when it goes out, because they spent our tax dollars so unfairly and unwisely, remember that. as a businessman and real estate developer, i have legally used the tax laws to my benefit and to the benefit of my company, my

investors, and my employees. honestly, i have brilliant ly used those laws, and i often said on the campaign trail that i have a tpau tkurbairy responsibility to pay no more tax than is legally required, or, to put it another way, to pay as little tax as legally possible. if you remember the early '90s, other than 1928, there was nothing even close. the conditions facing real estate developments in the early '90 period was almost as bad as the great depression in 1929, and the great recession of 2008. many business people, including competitors and friends were not

able to survive, and companies and jobs and opportunities were lost and lives were destroyed as tens of thousands of people were put out of work. these tough times were when i performed my very best. the economy and banks were collapsing and the government was a mess, but i enjoyed waking up every day to go to battle, and they had an expression, surviv until '95 and you will be okay, and that's what i did, i won and kept winning, until this day i kept on winning. >> what do you make of his argument that i followed the law, i paid as few taxes as i should have paid, and i was brilliant for doing it that way? >> not going to work. this is a slow boiling stew. we can talk about all the polls in different states. donald trump is locked in between 42% and 45% of the vote,

and they are going nowhere. change is the biggest winner this year. it's people trying to figure out what am i going to do here? i want change but i'm looking at donald trump. who is over the past three or four days as you pointed out, having a slow motion nervous break down in public? >> he's ahead in ohio by five points, the state of romney lost, and he's ahead in iowa, and competitive in pennsylvania, and this is after this week's polls. he's tied in -- >> you show me his electoral college to victory. >> do we see hillary at 50 anywhere? >> no, but we see her at 47. as gary johnson goes down she looks to benefit. >> jean robinson, bill clinton

got elected with 43% of the vote? >> yeah, and look, step back for a minute. a few weeks ago, this race did look essentially tied. you called it a coin flip and it looked like a coin flip. it looks a lot less like a coin flip now because hillary clinton is clearly ahead in the national polls -- >> because of a horrific week by donald trump, and people just like after the cons, this is my point, trump has a horrible week, people move away and they always seem to find their way back to trump. >> we will see if they find their way back to trump this day. i think the two important things from this awful week from trump, number one, i think the debate performance was actually important, and i don't discount that as a reason for that slide. i think there was a very clear contrast in that debate, and i think people saw him dissolve into incoherence toward the end of the debate, and i frankly

don't have a lot of reason to think the second debate is going to be much different. maybe, obviously i could be proved wrong, but doesn't seem to be a good setting for him, and no teleprompter and it's a town hall and he has not proved to be good at that and i would be surprised if it were a radically better debate performance and it could be more of the same. >> it doesn't matter, though. we are talking about a guy, again, follow what he has done over the past five or six, seven days. he should not be ahead in ohio. he shouldn't be within four points in pennsylvania. he shouldn't be up comfortably in iowa. he shouldn't be as well as he is doing. but he is, gene, because there's something that makes voters move to this guy. >> i think what we just ran, the sound bite we just ran. >> it's not him, it's her. >> he has not collapsed.

his support has not collapsed, but his support is not growing in the way or to the point that it needs to grow for him to win the election, but as mark said, he has to hope, or he probably will go into election day having to hope that, you know, that 45 of really 47, that there are trump voters out there that is for some reason, you know -- >> won't admit -- >> yeah, not registering. >> mike barnicle just said something that i am hearing more and more, you know, we are all focusing on donald trump, and it's not about donald trump, it's about hillary clinton, a woman incapable of finish the sale. i did not see her yesterday, but i heard from several democratic influences yesterday that saw her and here we are in october saying her performance looked like a high school debater's performance, that she was

horrific. i have not seen the clip, so please don't throw -- >> i will play it for you, but go ahead. >> i heard she is not getting better but worse. is this more about hillary clinton and what people don't want to vote for than donald trump? >> i agree with mike. i think this is a referendum on her, if it were a referendum on him we would not be talking about it. >> right. >> right? and the analogies we are playing with, carter and reagan, and are we waiting for a debate to see whether he's stable, and i think in a weird way this is entirely about her, and whether people ultimately are going to be comfortable with having her in their living rooms and in their lives with four to eight years. if it were about him, i think it would have been over a long time ago? >> hillary clinton seized on the new york time story accusing her

rival of being the quote, poster boy for the same rigged system he is reeling against. >> he apparently lost $1 billion on bad investments and failing casinos. ask yourself this, who loses money on casinos? really. some of his supporters said, it just shows he's a genius that he didn't pay any taxes, and what kind of genius loses a billion in the first place? >> i noticed a confidence here that i don't think should be there among the campaign, sorry. i mean, you think about this tax thing and were laws broken and did "the new york times" find any laws were broken? >> no. >> he talks about brilliantly

queuesi using that system, and she could have had that same reaction with her speech money, and she hides it, and donald trump is comfortable he followed the law and made a lot of money and she also followed the law and made a lot of money and it's okay to look at that speech money and somehow we let it go because she's -- her campaign keeps it under -- it's the same thing and that's what people see, and people see somebody being honest about it and somebody kind of like, not mentioning it and still doing it. what is the difference? does anybody want to explain to me, because i think voters like what they saw from donald trump and i am worried about it? >> an example when you tried to overthr

overthrow gingrich, and army tried to deny it and tom delay got in front of us and apologized and he said it was a mistake, and it was the end of dick army's political career, and tom delay gained more power because people that hated him his entire time in washington went up and said thanks for telling us the truth, and here we have donald trump, and i have no idea how he survived the republican primary by giving hillary clinton money, and he said, hey, i am in business, and i -- >> i followed stupid washington laws. >> i guess in 2016, people are like, this is -- >> this is going to work if people are not careful. >> this tax thing, sorry, please, find me one person that pays more taxes than they have to pay. you can't do it. so everybody that is acting so

shocked that he did what he was legally entitled to do is a freaking hypocrite, and that's why warren buffett goes, oh, rich people need to pay more money, so pay more money, warren buffett. >> the lead out there is that this guy, it's easier to lose a billion and survive than it is own a $275,000 split cape and lose the house in -- >> i don't think they are thinking that. i have to tell you. i hope you are right. i hope you are right. but i think you are wrong. >> what we said yesterday on the show was don't be mad at barack obama for only paying 19% -- >> they lived in the house for the last two decades. >> don't be mad at donald trump for not paying taxes legally for 15 years, be angry at a system

broken and corrupt and i do believe as warren buffett said, if you are a billionaire, you should have a minimum tax of 30%, and your secretary is paying 18%, and i don't think it's going to resonate with people in middle america. >> and to use donald trump's favorite phrase, the rules are rigged. >> i you degree. >> it's safe to say -- >> i agree. people look at this and say it's a clown who didn't know how -- >> i just don't think they are thinking that. >> what people look at is that guy knows how to gain the system, and if there were somebody other than hillary clinton who is more in the pocket of wall street, and who is more -- >> and won't acknowledge it. >> hillary clinton -- >> don't do this. >> let me finish one sentence

and i will be quiet for the next three hours. hillary clinton is more in the pocket of wall street than anybody else that has run for president for years, so please, anybody that is looking at donald trump and going, oh, he's so horrible and corrupt, we need to elect hillary clinton because she's going to fix the system? no, it's not going to happen. where do they go? >> i am worried. >> she made that speech in ohio yesterday, and donald trump's leads jumping from five to 15 points. up against the back of what we just talked about, the miss universe. he's a feeling to them. he's raging against this government machine, and people who like donald trump like the way he responded to that tax leak. >> i realize it's hard to do, but has anybody taken a look at donald trump's big tax plan --

>> i agree with you, mike. >> did he address anything -- >> i agree with you. i am just watching these two candidates, and there's one that keeps kind of doing this thing that penetrates the people are hearing, they feel, the truth, from donald trump. >> and that is on second clinton that she has not told us really where she wants to go or take us. >> i think the reaction to the "new york times" story on donald trump's part was brilliant, and he didn't think twice about it and he just went there, and she's hiding the e-mail stuff and hiding, and people are not feeling a complete connection with her and it didn't help to get high and mighty, and get off your high horse against the tax

thing unless laws were broken, it's not an issue, you cancel each other out. >> i couldn't believe watching the tv yesterday. >> i think you guys are over thinking this. i went to the barbershop yesterday, and what were people talking about? they were talking about trump not paying taxes. that's the one thing from the week that stuck at the barbershop was rich guy, not paying taxes, i got to pay taxes, what is this? >> i hope you are right. >> and i just -- i am sorry, but i think -- i think there's some over thinking here. i don't think it was a brilliant response to say, yes, i brilliantly maneuvered. yeah, everybody wants to follow the law but step back for a minute, i am worth $10 billion, and i am the most brilliant businessman in the world, and,

oh, yeah, i don't pay taxes. that's a problem. >> jon meacham, let's talk about what willie said, ohio, was it? donald trump up 19 percentage points over the month in ohio among independents. >> there was a great dana carvey skit in 1992 after pat buchanan got 40% of the vote in new hampshire, and dana carvey says i got your message, i got your message, you're pissed, and that's the message, and i think details do matter. if trump were so brilliant at taxes why did "the new york times" have to bring out his brilliance, he's not known for hiding his light under a bushel,

and how many undecided voters can there be at this point? we are talking about ten people in pennsylvania? it's going to be an emotional election and not a rational one, and if it were a rational one, secretary clinton would be way up, it seems to me. >> still ahead on "morning joe," the contore shaw northwest battle. she got tricked up trying to answer this question, is trump a role model? and first, bill karins with a check on hurricane matthew pounding haiti. >> prayers for haiti this morning. category 4. torrential rns and the eye is over the top of the peninsula portion. we had flooding from yesterday and huge waves and it was ahead

of the storm. overnight is when the hurricane moved over haiti, and it will be over haiti all day today. we have major impacts in our country, too. 145-mile-per-hour winds, and cuba will get landfall later today. and this has shifted closer to florida, and having direct impact with south carolina and north carolina, and there will be a major impact. florida, a very close call. all of the computer models are along the coast, and we're expecting already the possibility of up to a foot of rainfall in the carolinas this upcoming weekend. again, the bottom line is today is a day of preparations for boats, hurricane shutters, stuff like that on the east coast and tomorrow will be a day from evacuations from florida all the way up through the outer banks. you are watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. are now parg

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do you know who these guys are? >> no, i do not. >> any ideas?

>> no. >> nothing? >> no idea. >> that's mitt romney, i think. >> what job do you think they have? >> a ceo. >> a newscaster. i don't know. >> a coach. >> looks like sports casters. >> a sports analyst. >> i think they look like they golf, like in the golf world. >> do you know their names? >> yeah, tim kaine and -- >> pence. >> tim kaine. >> yeah, i saw him, and he had a boring speech at the convention. >> the vice presidential candidates face-off tonight. >> this is like christmas eve. it's like, christmas eve, your 21st birthday party? what? >> the culmination of a lifetime

of dreams bundled up into one. the chances that this is anything but a nonevent are small. i think people want to see if they are up to number two. both have an opportunity to help candidates with a super strong performance but i think they will cancel each other out. >> and after claiming donald trump is a good role model for kids, she faces a tight re-election race, and she made the comment last night while also being grilled on why she won't endorse trump. >> i would tell a child to seek to run for the presidency, absolutely. >> but would you, again, to the question, would you tell them to be like donald trump? would you point to them as a role model? >> i think that certainly there are many role models that we have, and i believe he can serve

as president, so absolutely i would do that. >> why won't you endorse him? >> because i had disagreements with him and i have been clear -- >> i was expecting worst. >> she said i misspoke tonight. while i hope all our children would aspire to be president, neither donald trump or hillary clinton have set a good example. the race for senate seat remains in a dead heat. and senator -- >> she's in an uncomfortable position. >> it just shows a lot of republicans having to twist themselves in knots about trdond trump. she has not endorsed donald

trump, so i am not sure why she was not able to say it there. other people that have endorsed them, and you ask them privately how they are feeling, they roll their eyes, and these are republicans. >> when she says neither of them are role models, unfortunately that's the way a lot of americans feel about the two candidates. >> she is now doing the political version in new hampshire, up there on the tightrope. >> that was not bad. >> you are exactly right. she's done a tough job trying to straddle that fence. >> and gene robinson writes, only you can prevent a trump presidency. in 2008, sarah palin's verbal tick in debate, calling joe

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on saturday "the new york times" released some of the

donald trump's old tax returns which some say were leaked from inside trump's camp, and htrumps lesser known daughter put it, want to pay attention to me now, dad. we're back in just a moment. how can good paying jobs disappear? it's what the national debt could do to our economy. if we don't solve our debt problem 19 trillion and growing money for programs like education will shrink. in just 8 years, interest on the debt will be our third largest federal program. d news for small businesses. the good news? there's still time for a solution. ask the candidates for a plan to secure our future.

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♪ ♪ time for the must-read opinion pages, and joining us is bob woodward, and also co-founder of politico, jim, and gene, you write in the "washington post" this, only you have prevent a trump presidency, and there's no reason to believe

most americans favor clinton. in columbia on sunday, support kwrurdz were shocked because polls had shown it would be approved easily, and similarly brit kwrurb polls showed the people were in favor of remaining in the eu, and the only way trump can win is if that same thing happens here. vote or you'll have no rate to complain. harsh. >> well, it's true. i think it's true. in those two examples, you know, poll something a pretty good science. i think the polls were

accurately captured the public opinion, if under 40 voters voted anywhere in near the voters that over 65 voters voted, and even anywhere in the vicinity, it's quite likely that the brexit would have failed and britain would still be in the union, and same in columbia, only 37% turnout, and it showed there were clear majorities according to polls in favor of the peace deal, yet people sat at home. i think if you want to worry about something, you know, because you are worried about a trump presidency, worry about come pl complacency. >> either complacency or people

are lying to pollsters, and if people are telling you are stupid, or if you are told you are a biggeted moron for voting donald trump, you may be a tad unlikely to tell pollsters i am voting for trump. >> yeah, i think a lot of that could be generating support for donald trump, and october is always interesting in presidential elections, it's a kind of pretransition, and sometimes you have to look back at who won, but you can detect and in the case of hillary clinton, can she really kind of redirect her campaign? she doesn't need to run around probably attacking trump and say he's unhinged. trump is trump and people are going to make their evaluation, and they're still evaluating

her, even her own voters, and she needs to show that steadiness, i can be president, and this is -- there's a kind of comfort that gets demonstrated. back in '92, when her husband beat george bush, it was astaupbiastaup astonishi astonishing, all of the troubles bill clinton had, infidelity and draft dodging, and he came out to say i am going to use the power of the presidency to fix the economy for you, so i think the spotlight is much -- certainly we don't know what is going to happen, and should be on trump, but also her. what she is saying to voters, can she communicate i'm in this for you because too often it looks like she's in it for herself. >> and the clinton campaign

understands gene's point about millennial turnout and there's a reason she is suddenly touting free public college for anybody that needs it under a certain income level, and they know they need millennials to go out and vote for her and be excited to it. >> i don't know if she is going to suddenly change peoples' opinion and get them enthusiastic about her candidacy, and it seems like since the debate she seems like a kid on christmas morning, and she is like i can't believe i got this gift in trump opposed to turning it on herself, and they look at the swing state polls and shows rarely does he go above 42, and the polls are back around the 38 points and

they feel self confident, but i think the apathy that gene is talking about, it's real and we have seen it, and people will vote for her unenthusiastically, and this whole election has been a downer. >> you know when obama was first running for president, the tv would be on somewhere and you would see people stop and listen to a campaign speech. i have not seen that, except for trump. >> but not in a positive way. they are doing it because people never know what the guy is going to say. >> let's not underestimate it, and say it's not in a positive way. and i did a talk in washington, and how many trump voters, and no people raised their hand and one woman went like this, and then there were others in the room and were afraid to say it, and there's two, there's the one

about ptsd, which they are accusing the press of jumping on it too much, and they probably are and this tax story where he broke no laws, and he's being transparent and up front about similar constructs that have happened in the clinton world. >> john, i saw a clip outside a trump rally, and it was about five or six days ago, and people were standing in the rain, and maybe it was in michigan, and wrapped around the building in the cold rain, standing there for donald trump. there's energy in this election. there's excitement in this election and it's on donald trump's side, it's not on hillary clinton's side, and it's certainly the excitement and energy does not come with people we hangout with day in and day out. i heard a great quote from the governor of a state that was asked who is going to win your

state, and he said trump by double digits, and i don't know a single person that will vote for him. that was a republican governor. >> no, no, i have talked to very senior elected republican officials who say the same thing. trump carried 94 out of 95 counties in tennessee in the primary, and some of the most senior elected republicans in the state never met anybody that was for trump. the governor of a neighboring state thought the computers were broken on the night of the republican primary, because precincts where there had been 80 and 90 voters in '12 and '08, were registering hundreds of voters who were coming out of the hills to vote for trump. it's undeniably compelling, and the question is going to be trump is the message, you know, his view is totally tr traditionally populist one, and

the question is if the experts are so smart why are we in the trouble we are in, and the difference between this year and 1992 bill clinton ran a relentless on message campaign in an attempt to make his character matter less, and it was the economy and health care, and senator clinton for various reasons has not been able to make that same case. >> bob, we have been saying here for most of the morning that it's not him, it's her in the context of the campaign and in terms of compelling messages. i don't think there has been one that has been out there on behalf of senator clinton from herself or any of her surrogates that would be compelling enough to make people stop and think. it seems to me that a lot of people feel she's running for president simply on a platform of it's my turn. >> i think there's a suggestion of that. you know, this is -- strange

things happen in october and the term october surprise floats around, but there are surprises. i remember when george w. bush was running against gore, you may recall, it came out bush had a drunk driving incident, and you know what bush did? he came out and he said, it's true. nobody was surprised, of course. but that kind of turning the card over and saying, hey, this is true, this is what is going on, there's so much dodging, there's so much, frankly, dishonesty and concealment in this campaign. people want to trust their president. can either of these candidates come out and kind of generate the feeling in voters, ah, that's a president, that's somebody that can handle things

rather than seeing this -- i think that the trump tax story is very important. i salute "the new york times" for getting that and doing it so well and now it unearthed all the issues of why did trump lose all that money, and he was in the casino business and the house has the advantage, but he went bankrupt, and so there are stories in all of the newspapers about that era, which is not favorable to him. >> bob woodward, thank you very much. eugene robinson, and jon meacham, thank you as well. coming up in the next hour, a look ahead at tonight's vice presidential debate. as we go to break in 1984, the second ever vice presidential debate featured the first woman nominee, geraldine ferraro that

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the campaign trail and more significant, he managed to stay on message. >> to move your companies out to mexico and other places. you watch. it's getting worse. it's not getting better, it's getting worse, and you are unsuspecting, and you say let's go to a movie after trump, but you won't do that, you will be so high and satisfied, no movie is going to satisfy you, okay, you know why? honestly, because they don't make movies like they used to, is that right? >> here's what he said. people are negotiating and owners of companies are negotiating to move your companies out to mexico and other places. you watch. and it's getting worse. it's not getting better. it's getting worse. and you are unsuspecting. right now you say to your wife,

let's go to a movie after trump, but you won't do that because you will be so high and so excited that a no movie is going to satisfy you, okay? no movie. you know why? honestly, because they don't make movies like they used to. is that right. >> amazing. >> that says it all. >> it's amazing. >> you look at that. lawrence o'donnell, you have to admire that. this is your craft and art to weave that together like a finely crocheted -- >> mac macro may. >> there was a candidate that complained about the coverage in the boston globe because they would use part of the quotation

marks, and the "globe" had a new policy, and quoted him word for word, and it was like that. >> welcome back to "morning joe." >> lawrence, a kid in a candy shop. this vice presidential debate. lawrence -- >> are you going? >> are you kidding me? >> you have reagan at the wall, and jfk's inauguration. where are you going to stack the vice president's debate -- >> no, lawrence. >> it's tim kaine. it's tim kaine. >> what time is that? >> it's going to be great. >> doesn't mike have an appointment he couldn't break? >> he got in at the brazilian waxing spa at 9:00, and there was a conflict. >> it's tuesday. >> what did the low expectations do? tim kaine could maybe score big on something that otherwise would be not so noticeable. >> okay. >> i can't sell you on this. >> no. >> we are joking, but people are

mocking this debate because they are guys who are fluent in policy. >> yeah, they can talk about it. >> that's true. we are being a little shallow, is that what you are trying to say? >> we have lawrence o'donnell with us, the host of "the last word," and the co-founder of politico, and in washington, msnbc political contributor and editor at the fix washington post. >> the last quinnipiac university poll, clinton has opened up a five-point lead, 46 to 41. clinton has a four-point lead in pennsylvania, 45-41, and gary johnson falling four points there. in ohio, trump maintains a five-point lead with both trump and clinton up since the last poll. gary johnson is down 8%, and

johnson down eight points in north carolina, and and a bloomberg poll in north carolina shows clinton leading there by 1%. and then in colorado, a new poll has clinton up 11 points there. >> let's go to the national -- >> what a mixed bag. >> let's look at the national picture. >> a new surveymoney online poll, hillary clinton expanded her lead by 1%. in the latest cbs news poll, clinton's lead has grown to four points a turn around from early september when the poll had the race in a dead heat. while the debate had no affect on about half of all voters, 32% of likely voters that watched the debate said they think better of clinton in the wake of her performance, and 36% say

worse of trump. in the latest cnn orc poll, clinton has seen a seven-point swing and leads 47 to 42. >> let's go through these. i must say, lawrence, after the rambling second half debate performance, somehow mixing rosie o'donnel -- >> happens all the time. >> and wining about the microphone, and fat shaming and doubling down -- >> yeah. >> people in the campaign were begging him to stop. and the story he had not paid taxes in 15 years, and then him mocking hillary clinton for having pneumonia and passing out, and then him, just as a throwaway line suggesting hillary clinton committed adultery with absolutely, positively -- >> making fun of her being sick. >> like doing an imitation of her fainting.

>> i would not expect pennsylvania to basically be within the margin of error, and even though he is down four points, he jumped up five points, and north carolina he jumped up five points, and down one in a bloomberg poll. this all seems to give little, i would think, little solace to brooklyn. it should be a much larger hillary clinton lead, should it not? >> well, the challenge is -- how do you move undecided into the columns of these candidates who are very well known. everything you just said except for the tax story that did not get into the polling system soon enough, and everything you said that donald trump did at the debate was at a certain level unsurprising, and it was a little surprising it was happening at a presidential debate, and we knew this miss universe story and it was all out there, and if you were a trump supporter, you had it

baked in, and if you were undecided all of it was baked into the decision, and hillary clinton was who you thought would be at the debate, full of governing confidence and all that stuff, and if you were undecided going into that debate what did hillary clinton do to change the undecided vote? >> we have been looking at trump and the media is focussing on trump, but this is really about hillary clinton, and it's a vote of confidence or no confidence against hillary clinton and the establishment. >> the hate hillary vote is about 5%, and without the hate would hillary be above 40? i doubt it. >> not even close. >> i have so many people that tell me they think donald trump is a loose cannon, and there's

no way i will vote for hillary clinton. >> i hear that from my friends, especially in my hometown. i bet you hear it from your friends that you went to high school with in wisconsin, and we all hear it from our friends and relatives everywhere. >> the question that i think everybody is trying to ponder is what happens with those people. i don't think this is a 50/50 election, or that trump has a 30% chance of winning. he has a 10% chance of winning. i think the polls to me suggests hillary clinton is in pretty good position, and the only places where trump over performs are the high density of performers, and noneducated performers. i think he's really struggling, and never goes below 30, and never above 42. >> he over indecks in iowa, and he could win iowa and pennsylvania, and he over

indexes in ohio, and i can't believe he is up five points in ohio right now, i can't believe it. he is. he kept florida close. if he wins those states, if he -- >> if, and he would have to win florida and pennsylvania, and he's not going to win pennsylvania, and pennsylvania always looks better for republicans in an election year than it is, and because of the way the population in florida votes, and in an election year, it's hard for trump to do it. >> the over indexing of white high school educated voters go trump swing pennsylvania and iowa. >> they have to way, way over index it. he's killing it with white men, in some of the polls by 50 and 60 points, and with college indicated white women -- that's

why the last six weeks get uglier and not better. >> look at this, this poll tells a different story than qui. >> look at this. >> he lost 50% of his vote in some of the battleground states, which i think is a big part of the story. the gary johnson slot enabled undecideds to park there for a while and they are pulling out of that. >> if you look purely from an electoral question, ohio, pennsylvania, north carolina, all of these states we talked about, if donald trump were able to win those and win back states that romney lost, like iowa and nevada and new hampshire, he still would have to win florida to have a shot. the point is, his path is and always has been so narrow he has no margin for error, and if he

loses florida, he will not be president. >> i hate to focus too much on florida, but i think jim is right, if you give hillary clinton the 1 states plus d.c. that every democrat has won, and she wins florida, the election is over, and it's really that simple. >> jim, do you think this race is not as close as some of the polls would suggest? jim is giving trump a 10% chance of winning. you look at 538 and others, and some are in the 40s now. >> i would give him more than a 10% chance, but it's not a 50/50 race. she doesn't -- i think the problem here is that most people assume the electoral map starts roughly even between the two. it doesn't. there are 242 electoral votes that have gone to the democrats

since '92. trump will get blamed for that if he loses, but the truth of the matter is, you can pick any nominee you want, ted cruz, rubio and kasich, and rubio and kasich wou help you in florida or ohio, but they are not included in the earlier numbers, and there's a built in electoral map advantage built largely around demographics that is hard to overcome. she has a lot of paths, and he has a few and every one of them has to have florida and ohio. we talk about north carolina as a swing state, joe, and the problem is mitt romney won north carolina when he was getting 206 electoral votes, and you take the 15 out from trump and now he's well under 200, and it's much harder for him to win. it's just math. he is over performing in certain places, but not enough to make up for the electoral map that is tough for him.

>> one other sentence of -- since we are geeking out on numbers, every election going back to the '80s, and it decreases by two to 3%, and that is replaced by hispanics and asians. >> asian americans are breaking more quickly for democrats -- >> they used to break for your party. decisively. >> yeah, and that has to be a grave concern for the republicans, and also if you are rooting for donald trump, mika, you have to look at the fact that they have no ground operation to speak of. >> right. >> and that made a big difference for obama in 2008 and 2012. trump is facing criticism for comments he made about veterans and -- >> when you talk about mental health problems and people come back from war and combat and

they say things a lot of the folks see, and you are strong and can handle it, and they can't handle it, and they see events you see in movies, and we need mental health help and medical, and it's one of the things i think are least addressed. we are losing so many great people that could be taken care of if they have proper care. >> he points out to the veterans says, and says, you are strong and can handle it, and a lot of people can't handle it. where in the hell is he -- i don't think he was trying to be mean. he is just so -- >> retired lieutenant general michael flynn later accused the media of taking donald trump's words out of context to deceive

voters. >> i love biden and get his point, and trump misspoke a little bit, and his point was that there are a lot of people that need help and it is taken out of context. >> he doesn't have the vaguest idea, as usual, of what he is talking about. he referred to the people in this room as being strong. he believes if you can tie a necktie and sit in a room with me, you do not have ptsd. >> no, and that's not what he said. >> this is the over correction that bothers me. >> he said we need great health care for great people, and i think he misspoke, and -- >> we don't need to work that hard to find things he said that is out land issue. >> what is misspeaking? >> do you want to play it again. >> how would you change the words?

>> sure. >> we'll play it again. >> by way the context, the questioner -- i was watching live, and the question inner was a guy who had been in combat and struggled with ptsd and depression, and this is in the moderate, overcome it, and i am with mika, it's a menial sin on the way of the broad stretch of trump's statements, and he was talking about overcoming his struggle with these things. >> and he was talking about the horror these people had seen, and he said we are losing great people, and i am not doing trump's -- >> it was inarticulate word

salad. >> i don't know this would be at the top of the list when he is talking about we need health care, and losing great people. >> the line that offended people, and he said he can't handle it, and i think he should have said there are people struggling with it. what i would have like to have heard part of the next sentence, is not that we have to do so great, instead of just playing lip service but to hear a plan. >> when there are the over reactions in the media, and one thing that discredits our profession, and people are supposed to be playing it down the middle and if every single time you are doing an end zone dance because you want to make fun of donald trump or defend hillary clinton, i don't think that helps us or the voter, and at the end of the election,

people are going to say they don't like her and not the republican party and hate us, and the solution we have is worse. >> the reaction is the same to the tax issue. the media is doing this massive end zone dance. >> by the way, that's why going back -- >> it's just a story. >> and there was a real cycle, and trump would say something at the beginning of the campaign, and the offense of the mexican remark, and they would take the offensive remark, and then the lead would be all mexicans are rapist, and it gives him wiggle room, and then mccain, and then mega megyn kelly's menstrual cycle, and every time there's an over playing of offensive remarks, and it gives him the opportunity

to step back and gives all of his supporters a reason to attack us and say they just hate him. i wonder, lawrence, where you stand on the tax story, because -- >> get ready for the end zone dance, because here we go. >> i remember i went on twitter this weekend, and that is always a mistake, and the tax story, you just would have really thought that donald trump was martin sheen in the dead zone saying gentlemen, the missiles are flying and world war iii had begun, by it's an end zone dance. >> it's the single worst thing that donald trump said, line 6, the most ignored line on the return, and that shows his actual income, his income, his real income for 1995. and it was less than a local new york tv news anchor man. it was $3.4 million.

and that's at a time when he is claiming that he's a billionaire, a billionaire, and the billionaire who made $3.4 million in that year. >> that's pretty good. >> the real reveal in him that pains him the most is that number, and all of his friends get to see, look how tiny the actual earned income was for this guy. >> that was the year he lost close to $1 billion -- >> well, this is a tricky thing. he managed to record $916 million in losses, but there's plenty of sophisticated analysis of this that suggests he didn't actually suffer those losses and didn't suffer those losses going forward and he was able to claim them in '95, and manage them in '96, but use that '95 claim to go forward about 18 years. >> and we have to go to break, and i am getting yelled at by

alex for good reason, but i am wondering, is there any hope regardless of who we elect of the united states of actually reforming the tax code to make sure that somebody that claims a billion if losses doesn't keep flying around a jumboet or a hedge fund guy that makes $3 billion, doesn't pay 11% in taxes, and you talk about mitt romney paying 14% in taxes in 2012, and barack obama paying 19% in taxes and a plumber who does pretty well, maybe in connecticut paying 55% in taxes. is there any chance at all? >> well, we know how to write the law. >> is there any political chance that hillary clinton, whose owned by wall street or donald trump, and there's not going to be a reformer when it comes to this. is there any chance that congress would even pass that alone? >> i think hillary clinton would

be more than in favor of the kind of bill you are talking about but i don't see congress doing a tax bill that a democratic can sign and i don't see this congress doing a tax bill that democrats would allow to get through the senate. >> i will give atiny reason for hope since we are down on anything, and if you assume like i do that hillary clinton wins the election, and she is campaigning -- she's not running against the republican party or those senators, and when she was in the senate she had better relations with them, and give me growth and i will give you a fair popularity rating, and i think she would try to do tax reform, and there are senators that would like to do that, and little by little you start over the years to see there's common ground on tax reform, and it took 20 years to get there on education reform and i think we got there, and you see the patterns moving towards getting there on tax reform.

do i think it will happen? probably not. but if you want an optimistic scenario in this pessimistic time -- >> your money is on clinton. >> but everybody that knew how to do that is gone. >> thanks, lawrence, scrooge. >> this apprentice story would kill more candidates, but for trump it's another monday. turning mike pence into donald trump. >> lots of luck with that. and we go to the rural town of farmville, virginia. you are watching "morning joe." we'll be right back.

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it's kind of funny, sometimes, it's like almost every day they come up with something new and different, and now we got them, right? we can parse that. are you with me? he tweeted this. and then -- and they think they

finally got him, and then they turn on the television the next morning and donald trump is still standing stronger than ever before and fighting for the american people. it really is fun to watch. i will tell you what. >> that was the usual reserved mike pence, and talking about the recent aanalysis at the top of the farm ticket. halle, what are we looking for tonight? >> guys, you won't have to bleep me, i hope, through the next bit of information here. here's what we are looking ahead for tonight. a couple different fronts. number one of introducing to americans who they are, because frankly, there's a lot of people that just don't know. we have the new nbc surveymoney online poll showing 40% of voters don't know enough about

tim kaine to have a positive or negative opinion of them, and 32% don't know enough about mike pence, and they have to introduce themselves to america, and it will be their first and only chance to have this kind of a nationalaudience. mike pence will play eanup. we know this. he has to face fire for donald trump's controversies over the past week in particular and that's something governor scott walker is openly acknowledging, and walker paid tim kaine for the prep, and here's what he will have to face tonight. >> all the research i did to help mike pence out with tim kaine suggested to me that senator kaine will be very respectful and decent and will come across as a mild mannered nice guy, but in the end he will take shot after shot after shot

at donald trump, and mike pence's job is to quickly come in and defend the false attacks and quickly pivot to hillary clinton. >> and pence will probably go after tim kaine in the way we have seen donald trump go after hillary clinton and that's for not being a so-called change agent. that's what pence and trump are running on. kaine for his part will do his best to make clinton be more likeable among millennials, and these two vice presidential candidates have a lot in common. both raised catholic and both law school grads and both served in the state house and congress and both of their sons are active duty marine corps officers. this is a chance for all of us to watch these two candidates face-off and pence will probably not need to be bleeped again tonight. >> let's hope not. should be interesting to watch tonight. joinings former indiana

congressman, david mcintosh. you know governor pence about as well as anybody, and what approach do you think he will take to defend donald trump's record and the future donald trump could have as president? >> i do know mike well and he will be a solid and steady voice for conservative pro growth premarket positions, and i think what he'll do in this debate, in a way, is show the whole trump team how you do that pivot to focus it back on hillary clinton being part of the problem of 32 years in washington, and frankly that her tax and regulatory plans would cost us millions of jobs. i think mike will be affective at communicating that and will communicate the way it relates to america. >> how do you work through the tension between a guy you

obviously know and respect in mike pence and donald trump who you have questions about? >> yeah, earlier in the show folks were commenting about how it just seems to wash off donald trump's back, we discovered that in the primaries. a lot of people said i don't care what he says, i want somebody to come and change washington. what we look at is the substance, and mike pence has a great record as a tax cutter, and regulatory cutter, and pro growth in indiana where he cut the jobless rate in half and that's what we focus on is the record and what they stand for and we are thrilled about him being on the ticket. >> you know mike pence well. how real is this, his defense of donald trump? how frustrated do you think he gets having to defend day in and day out some of the things that come out of trump's mouth, how tortured is he?

>> one of mike's great qualities, he tends to like everybody even on the other side of the aisle, and i think it's genuine what he says, and the talent i have seen him bring to this is he will define what a conservative republican stands for and then -- that's why trump will make america great, and mike is helping to define what trump stands for in his own humble and subtle way in the campaign, and a remarkable thing that i see is in the past vice presidents have always had to say, me, too, whatever the president says i believe in, and trump and he have an agreement that let's mike speak his mind. >> where has he gone off the reservation? where has that happened? >> it has been very subtle things. >> can you name one? >> yeah, for example, mike was the first person to say, oh, yeah, of course i think president obama was born in the usa. mike leads subtly by speaking

the truth, and he has done a good job of that. >> david i noticed when you asked about donald trump, you pivoted quickly to mike pence, and he called you ridiculous, and asked you for a million-dollar contribution, and do you thi not mike pence but donald trump fiscally would be a good president? >> i have to look at what he is campaigning on now, and his tax cut plan, and his regulatory relief plan would be strong and pro growth, and we still disagree on trade and we are strong on free trade and think it's necessary to keep the economy growing, and institutionally we are staying out of the presidential race and focusing on senate race like pat toomey's where his opponent is a big tax increaser and he's a tax cutter and we are talking about

the voters about that. >> thank you. stay with us all day for the coverage of the vice presidential debate, and as we go to break, john f. kennedy had been gone for 25 years when he played an unforgettable role in a vice presidential debate. >> i have as much experience in congress as jack kennedy did when he sought the presidency. i will be prepared to deal with the people in the bush administration if that unfortunate event would ever occur. >> senator benson? >> senator, i served with jack kennedy, and i knew jack ken see, and jack kennedy was a friend of mine, and senator, you are no jack kennedy. sureor put themhave ston a rack.e tires. but the specialists at ford like to show off their strengths:

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as a businessman and real estate developer, i have legally used the tax laws to my benefit and to the benefit of my company, my investors and my employees. honestly, i have brilliantly -- i have brilliantly used those laws. i have often said on the campaign trail that i have a

tpau tku responsibility to pay as little tax as legally possible. >> a couple things. first of all, we want to do cleanup. first of all, we were just informed he is going over to be a local news anchor, and he is talking about a poultry salary, and it's $3.4 million, and he said that's just above what a local news anchor makes, and if that's true i am going down to wnbc now. it's the next studio over. >> i was wondering why they came out with the bling. >> what is karins making over there? >> jim and i were talking about

the media dance, and we are talking about the twitter feeds for reporters across the country, and going on twitter and opining is irresponsiblebly as if they were like me. >> i think the accusations of bias are usually overdone and it's out the door in this campaign, and reporters have become so bias, particularly on twitter, and go look at the twitter feeds and tell me if those are things they would say on tv or that would ever have been acceptable in previous campaigns and that doesn't mean trump says plenty you should be -- >> we get paid -- around this table we get paid for giving our opinions. >> and progress tphaus

indicating. >> and telling people where we think something is going to go, and who is going to win the republican primaries and who is not. >> but the people you are talking about claim to be objective. >> when i open "the new york times," i don't want opinions in my lead, and the people that write those stories i don't want to see them on twitter doing the end zone dance. >> somewhere along the campaign, the decision was made trump needs to be stopped and it was incumbent on people to stop the bigot or all what has been said about him, and top reporters -- >> they are not speaking truth to power. that's a cover-up. they are not speaking truth to power. they are not saying anything we

don't understand know. trump says things we need to hear, and they are not helping -- it's not an end zone dance and they are slapping each other on the back, and you are whittier than i was. >> i can't imagine what would have happened in the boston globe news room in 1985. >> we just don't want reporters claiming to be. >> jim says end zone dances. >> i am actually surprised in an age where it may be 99% of the people in the country thinks the media tilts left and publishers don't tell reporters, stay off

twitter, because all you do with twitter is get yourself in trouble. >> just so people are not confused, you ought to be tough as hell on both candidates, and that story in "the new york times" should have been in the new york times, and i think objectivity is a premise, and your job is to cover the race fairly, and i don't want to think what you hear about it on twitter, and opinion business, go for it. >> feels like the first half of it was the liberal media, the mainstream media, however you want to characterize them saying it's not going to happen, never, please, ha ha, he'll never win. >> 10% is his limit. 15% is his limit. 20% is his limit. 30% is his limit. overriding leads saying as fact what you can deduce, and time and time again they over shot the runway. they said from day one, when

they can do that and you can see it on tape from day one, when they over shoot the runway, they only feed into him and they feed into his supporters who believe the media is biassed and are never going to give him a fair shake, and here we are, willie, october 4th, still saying the same thing, more than a year later. >> watch what will happen after the election, he will take that 38% that never moves, and i think it turns it into a media empire, and that's going to make fox look like a poser. >> and those objective reporters will be laughing -- crying, actually. >> this is not in defense of donald trump, but of fairness in the media. >> thank you. up next, the politics of climb and justice. stop! we're looking ahead to tonight's vice presidential debate. the spokesman of the rnc had a

new attack ad against tim kaine and then deleted it. >> why? >> we're going to talk about that and more with the reverend al sharpton in a moment. . all the networks are great now. we're talking within a 1% difference in reliability of each other. and, sprint saves you 50% on most current national carrier rates. save money on your phone bill, invest it in your small business. wouldn't you love more customers? i would definitely love some new customers. sprint will help you add customers and cut your costs. switch your business to sprint and save 50% on most current verizon, at&t and t-mobile rates. don't let a 1% difference cost you twice as much. whoooo! for people with hearing loss, visit sprintrelay.com.

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we're a divided nation and each week it seems we are getting more and more divided with race riots on our streets on a monthly basis. somebody said don't call them race riots, but that's what they are, and look at st. louis and ferguson and baltimore and chicago, and in chicago thousands of shootings -- thousands since january 1st. but this ishe america we will have if we don't turn things around starting immediately. >> okay. we are going to get reverend al sharpton's take on that statement next. >> and ask maybe whether hillary clinton is doing enough to close the deal with black voters in a way that could actually win the

election? >> we will be right back.

[text message alert rings] [texting keystrokes]

okay, joining us now, host of msnbc's politics nation and president of the national action network, reverend al sharpton. good to have you. >> morning. >> you have expressed concern that hillary clinton's not doing enough to energize voters the way barack obama did in '08 and

'12. we're a month out. is she -- has she got the memo yet? >> she's way ahead of trump with black voters. >> well, yeah, i mean, my dog's way ahead of trump with black voters. >> but i think what she has to do is come with such a compelling argument that people can't wait to go out -- >> why hasn't she done it yet? >> she's beginning to understand it. i think her going to charlotte on sunday was good. she's got to not just talk about how bad trump is. >> right. >> he is not paying his taxes or he's not -- that doesn't make me want to stand in line i florida, ohio, and vote for you. >> was the charlotte meeting an important point. >> very important. the meeting with the millennials, going to the black church where you have this police situation there, i was in tulsa last week. it resonated everywhere, even at the rally i was in tulsa.

she's got to do more of that. she's coming behind if she wins the first and second black attorney generals in the country. we have never had one. who's going to replace loretta lynch or are you going to keep her? who is going to replace eric holder? these are the things that will make us get up 6:00 in the morning and stand in line and vote. not whether or not donald trump is slick. we assume that. or not whether or not she got overpaid for a speech. everybody understands that. what barack obama did was give us a compelling reason to say, you are what's on my mind. the failure of these debates is they're talking more about each other than talking to us. tell me about me. i already understand all of you have baggage. unless you're going to address that, i don't think you're going toget the fernoturnout and the . she can turn around some of the states in question like ohio if people are lined up. that's what barack obama did.

you don't just need people to say to a pollster i'll vote. pollsters call you. you need people to come to the polls. that means i'm coming to vote for me, not you. >> the president is about to hit the road a couple times a week on behalf of secretary clinton. the trance fsference factor, ho powerful will it be among black voter snz. >> if there's anything who can have an effect, it's president obama. and probably as much or more, michelle obama. but is that enough? i think at the end of the day, you've got to make me feel that if you are walking in that oval office, that my concerns are there and you're going to do something about it and you understand me. you can get president obama to say this is the best choice. this is going to continue what i'm doing. but you've got to close the deal. >> what does she say sph. >> i think she's been saying that lately. i think that we have been hearing too much anti-trump and not enough pro-people.

i don't need to be convinced that trump is not in my interest. i need to be convinced that you're passionate about making sure that these police issues, these poverty issues, these education issues of my kid, of me living in a different america, that you understand it and that you can't wait to get in the oval office and do that. >> rev, is there any res nnls at all to the argument that donald trump has made perhaps less articulately than other republicans have made in the past that says to african-american voters in other cities, chicago, detroit, baltimore, you have been run by democrats for generations and generations. if you're dissatisfied, why not try our way? >> i'm glad you bring that up. i say this quickly. the mistake i think was made in the debate when he says to mr. clinton for 30 years you have been in charge and republicanhave said that, for half of the 30 years, republicans were in charge. what are you going to do with 30 years ago with reagan as president and then bush, sr. and then bush jr. for eight years.

that argument doesn't work. >> what about mayors and city councils? >> they deal with congress and the white house down. and you can't make that argument that the democrats have had the white house and the congress for 30 years. you ever hear of gingrich's contract with america, of george bush? how will you say that the democrats had that 30 years when we went through newt to bush in the last 30 years. if i was in that debate and i was hillary, i would have kicked that one across the goalpost on mr. trump. >> we're all very confident you would. so we have to go, but it seems to me that this election more than any election, even more than the election of barack obama in 2008 and 2012, is really a moment for all people of color to make a difference in the future of this country. we're a month away. what does hillary clinton need

to close that sell for turnout? >> our turnout will determine the election. she's got to say, you need to turn out for me because the things you're marching, concerned, and really passionate about, i feel and i will do it. i will be that person. i've got to bleed that in my heart. and i've got to now can't wait until the day i can't vote for her, and in some early states, i can. >> we'll be right back with new swing state polls. we've just been hearing so much about how you're a digital company, yet here you are building a jet engine.

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mike barnicle. managing editor of bloomberg politics and co-host of "with all due respect," mark halperin. in nashville, pulitzer prize winning historian john mecum, and pulitzer prize winning columnist and msnbc analyst eugene robinson. we have been waiting to see if the debate had any effect on donald trump and hillary clinton. this morning, we have the numbers. >> and not just -- i don't think it's the debate so much as what's happened after the debate. the man had what some call the worst week in presidential political history. you look at the rambling second half of the performance, the fat shaming, all the other things that happened that week. then he makes fun of hillary clinton. her pneumonia, and it really -- it has been a really bad week for him. so, you would expect a massive swing in hillary clinton's direction.

>> well, let's look at the battleground states. we'll start there. the last quinnipiac polled florida, trump and clinton were neck and neck at 43%. clinton has opened up a five-point lead, 46 to 41. clinton has a four -point lead n pennsylvania, 45 to 41. gary johnson falling four points there. in ohio, trump maintains a five-point lead with both trump and clinton up since the last poll. gary johnson down eight. johnson is down eight points as well in north carolina, with clinton and trump both rising again. clinton leads there, 46 to 43. inside the margin of error. and a bloomberg poll of north carolina shows clinton leading there by just 1%. while the trend lines had shown trump closing the gap in colorado, a new monmouth poll has clinton up 11 points there. huh. >> so let's go state by state.

mark halperin, just doesn't look like the sort of lead, this sort of swing we would expect. donald trump still ahead by five points in ohio. and he's up. he was up like six points from the last time the poll was taken. basically, a tie in north carolina. in one of the polls showed trump up five percentage points since the last poll. pennsylvania, hillary clinton only up by four points. only by four points, and she's campaigning there twice today. not a good sign for a democrat in october, when by this point republicans usually are giving up the ghost there, and donald trump went up four points there. up four points there. up five or six points in ohio. what do you make of these polls? >> well, the floor didn't collapse on trump, but she clearly benefitted from the last week, as you said, not just from the debate but the aftermath. mika pointed out gary johnson's decline as voters focus on the

reality of who the next president is going to be. and johnson's decline helped clinton for the most part. and so trump entered the debate with momentum, and virtually caught up. he now, a week later, is further behind, but the floor hasn't collapsed on him. he still, if he has a good week, a good second debate, he could get right back in it. but the electoral college path the polls show makes it difficult for him to feel confident he has a chance. he has to have a surge. >> i guess, willie, the question is, what does donald trump have to do -- >> to drop. this is what i was worried about after the debate, by the way. everyone was so concerned, thinking, this is what i was worried about. this isn't significant. >> he had a rambling second half of the debate, but you look after that, and again, the body shaming, calling somebody fat, miss universe fat for weighing 150, 160 pounds. attacking her character, whining about the microphone, not paying

taxes in 15 years, mocking hillary clinton. mocking hillary clinton for passing out. then just as a throw away line, accusing her of adultery, just on and on and on. the saturday night speech. i think may have been the low point in all of donald trump's speeches. and you look at these numbers. he's up four in pennsylvania. he's up five or so in ohio. he's up five of a gain in north carolina. this is not a man who is collapsing in the polls. far from it. >> it re-enforces something i thought for a long time. there aren't that many persuadable voters left. not that many people who haven't made up their mind about these two people. if you love donald trump or really love him, it goes back to the thing, i could walk into fifth avenue and shoot somebody. >> i'm starting to believe that. >> there's some truth to that. if you look about the 18 years he may not have paid federal taxes, he argument and one that has been picked up by his

followers is, yeah, because i'm a smart businessman. i took advantage legally of all the tax advantages i could take on behalf of myself and my business, and his followers are echoing that. i don't think there's that much wiggle room in the middle anymore. >> really quickly, i want to clarify. in the ohio poll, could you put the ohio poll up and then the pennsylvania right after that? i said he was up five. what i meant was he's gained four or five points in these polls. he's ahead in ohio. he's behind in pennsylvania. and we're going to show you right now exactly what i mean. so in ohio, donald trump up by five points, but he has gained six points just over the past couple of weeks. you go over to pennsylvania, he is down. he's only down by four points. pretty remarkable. in october, especially, considering what donald trump has been saying. and he's up two, this again, does not look like a man who is paying any price for what has just been an abysmal week in

american politics. which suggests what i was saying yesterday. donald trump just may be voters' default position in 2016. >> on this tax issue, which we'll get to now, you mentioned it. i just think this media narrative as well as the clinton campaign is getting this one wrong. nearly three quarters of americans want to see donald trump's tax returns. this according to the cnn/orc poll. trump gave his first public response to the report from the "new york times" that he may have avoided paying federal income taxes for two dpecades after declaring a nearly $1 billion loss in 1999. he did defend using what he calls a, quote, unfair tax system. >> i understand the tax laws better than almost anyone. which is why i am one who can truly fix them. i understand it. i get it. and that is what i commit to do. we want fairness.

we want money brought in. and we want money to be spent when it goes out, because they spend our tax dollars so unfairly and unwisely. remember that. as a businessman and real estate developer, i have legally used the tax laws to my benefit. and to the benefit of my company. my investors, and my employees. i mean, honestly, i have brilliantly -- i have brilliantly used those laws. i have often said on the campaign trail that i have a fiduciary responsibility to pay no more tax than is legally required, like anybody else. or put another way, to pay as little tax as legally possible. if you remember the early '90s, other than i would say 1928, there was nothing even close. the conditions facing real

estate developers in that early '90 period were almost as bad as the great depression of 1929, and far worse than the great recession of 2008. not even close. many business people, including many of my competitors and some of my friends, were not able to survive. companies, jobs, and opportunits were lost, and lives were destroyed. as tens of thousands of people were put out of work. these tough times were when i performed my very best. the economy and banks, they were collapsing. the government was a mess. but i enjoyed waking up every day to go to battle. i had an expression in the early '90s. survive until '95 and you'll be okay. people copied it. survive till '95, and that's what we did. i won, i won, and i kept on winning. until this day, i kept on winning. >> mike barnicle, what do you

make of his argument that i followed the law, i paid as few taxes as i should have paid. and i was brilliant for doing it that way. >> not going to work. this is a slow boiling stew, and we can talk about all the polls and different states. donald trump is locked in between 42% and 45% of the vote. they're going nowhere. change is the biggest winner this year. so it's people trying to figure out what am i going to do here? i want change, but i'm looking at donald trump. who is over the past three or four days, as you pointed out, having a slow motion nervous breakdown in public. >> he's ahead in ohio by five points. the state that romney lost. he's ahead in iowa. he's competitive in pennsylvania. and again, this is after this week's polls. he's tied in north carolina. a state that barack obama won in 2008. >> show me his electoral college map to victory. >> he's rarely in any important state above 45%. he's going to have to get to

47%. >> do we see hillary at 50% anywhere? >> we see her in some places at 47%. as gary johnson goes down, she tends to benefit. he's going to have to hope that the electorate, what polls are showing is 45% turns out on election day or as people who vote, 47%. >> gene robinson, bill clinton got elected with 43% of the vote. >> yeah, but look. step back for a minute. you know, a few weeks ago these looks essentially tied. and it looks a lot less like a coin flip now, because hillary clinton is clearly ahead. she's ahead in the national polls. >> because of a horrific week by donald trump. and just like after the khans, and this is my point. trump has a horrible week, people move away, and they always seem to find their way back to trump. >> well, we'll see. we'll see if they fiebnd their y back to trump. i think the two important things

from this awful week for trump, number one, i think the debate performance actually was important. and i don't discount that as a reason for the slide. i think there was a very clear contrast in that debate. i think people saw him devolve into incoherence toward the end of that debate. i frankly don't have a lot of reason to think the second debate is going to be much different. maybe, obviously, i could be proved wrong, but it doesn't seem to be a good sign fortelep. it's easy to get under his skin. a town hall, he hasn't proved to be very good at that. i would be surprised if there were radically better debate performance, and i think it could be more of the same. >> that doesn't matter, though. we're talking about a guy, again, follow what he's done over the past five, six, seven days. he shouldn't be ahead in ohio. he shouldn't -- >> no. >> he shouldn't be within four points in pennsylvania. he shouldn't be up comfortably

in iowa. he shouldn't be doing as well as he's doing. but he is, gene, because there's something that makes voters move to this guy. >> i think it's what we just ran, the sound bite we just ran. >> it's not him, it's her. >> look, he has not collapsed. his support has not collapsed. but his support is not growing in the way or to the point that it needs to grow for him to win the election. but as mark said, he has to hope or he probably will go into election day having to hope that, you know, that 45%, really 47%, that there's trump voters out there that for some reason, you know, the cloak of invisibility or something, are not registering. >> jon meacham, mike barnicle just said something that i'm hearing more and more, we're all focusing on donald trump. this is not about donald trump.

it's about hillary clinton. a woman incapable of finishing the sell. and i did not see her yesterday. but i heard from several democratic influencers yesterday who saw her. here we are in october, saying her performance looked like a high school debater's performance. that she was horrific. again, i haven't even seen the clip, so please don't throw your slings and arrows at me. i have heard she just is not getting better. she's getting worse. so is this more about hillary clinton and what people don't want to vote for than donald trump? >> yeah, i agree with mike. i think this is a referendum on her because if it were a referendum on him, we wldn't be talking about it. >> right. >> right? and so the analogies we have played with have been reagan/carter and is trump reagan? are we waiting for a debate to see whether he's actually stable, which will be a long wait, i think. i think in a weird way, this is entirely about her.

and whether people ultimately are going to be comfortable with having her in their living rooms and in their lives for four to eight years. and if it were about him, i don't think -- i think it would have been over a long time ago. >> last night while campaigning in battleground ohio, hillary clinton seized on the "new york times" story, accusing her rival of being the poster boy for the system he's apparently railing against. >> he lost a billion dollars on bad investments and failing casinos. ask yourself this. who loses money on casinos? really. yesterday, some of his supporters said, well, it just shows he's a genius. that he didn't pay any taxes. what kind of genius loses a

billion dollars in the first place? >> so i just noticed a confidence here that i dont think should be there among the campaign. i'm sorry. but i mean, you think about this tax thing. unless, were laws broken? did the "new york times" find any laws were broken? >> no. >> so he talks about brilliantly using the system. great. hillary clinton could have had that same reaction to her speech money. that she says she's going to change wall street, but you know what, i used the system to make millions of dollars. but instead, she hides it. donald trump just doesn't hide it. he's very comfortable with the fact he followed the law and made a lot of money. she also followed the law. and made a lot of money. and for some reason, it's okay to look at that speech money and somehow we just let it go because she's -- her campaign keeps it under -- it's the same thing. that's what people see. people see somebody being honest about it, and someone kind of like not mentioning it, but

still doing it. what's the difference? does anyone want to explain to me, because i think voters like what they saw from donald trump, and i'm very worried about that. >> a good example, when we had -- when we tried to overthrow newt. you know, tom delay was involved. dick army was involved. they were the number two and number three person. dick army tried to deny it. tom delay got in front of us and teared up and apologized and said a terrible mistake. it was effectively the end of dick army's political career. tom delay actually gained more power because people who hated him his entire time in washington went up and said thanks for telling us the truth. here we have donald trump. i have no idea how he survived the republican primary admitting he gave money to hillary clinton, but what he said was, hey, i'm in business. okay? i -- >> i followed stupid washington's laws. i'll go change washington. >> i live in a democratic city,

so i'm going to give money to democrats. and i guess in 2016, people are like -- >> this is going to work if people aren't careful. >> this tax thing, i'm sorry. this tax thing, please. find me one person who paid more taxes than they have to pay. you can't do it. everybody that's acting so shocked that he did what he was legally entitled to do is a freaking hypocrite. that's why warren buffett goes out and says, oh, rich people need to pay more? pay more money, warren buffett. i think they should. >> but that's not the lead out there in the united states of america. >> what's the lead? >> it's the feeling, mike. >> the lead is that this guy, it's easier to lose a billion dollars and survive than it is to own a $275,000 split cape and lose the house in -- >> i don't think they're thinking that. i have to tell you. i hope you're right. i hope you're right. but i think you're wrong.

>> what we said yesterday on the show was that don't be mad at barack obama for only paying 19%. >> because they live in that house because the last two decades. >> don't blame mitt romney f paying 14% in taxes. don't be mad at donald trump for not paying taxes for 15 years. be angry at a system that is corrupt. if you're a billionaire, you should have a minimum tax of 25% or 30%. your secretary is paying 28%. i don't think donald trump playing by the rules -- i don't think that's going to resonate with people in middle america. >> the rules are to use donald's favorite phrase, they're rigged. >> i know they are. i agree. >> it's easier if the bank will go out of its way to save someone who owes a billion dollars than they will -- >> i agree with you. what's your point? not to be short, but what's your point? i agree with you. >> people look at this and say this is just another spoiled rich guy, a clown who didn't know how to run his company.

>> i don't think they're thinking that. >> what people look at is that guy knows how to game the system. if there were somebody other than hillary clinton, who is more in the pocket of wall street -- >> and won't acknowledge it. >> hillary clinton, who is more -- >> don't do this. >> let me finish one sentence and i'll be quiet for the next three hours. >> hillary clinton is more in the pocket of wall street than anybody else who has run for president for years. okay? so please, anybody that's like looking at donald trump and going, oh, he's so horrible and he's so corrupt. oh, we need to elect hillary clinton because she's going to fix the system. no. it's not going to happen. so where do they go? >> still ahead on "morning joe, "-- >> look, we're not right where we need to be, but we're within striking distance of where president obama was iphis re-election in 2012. >> the clinton campaign knows they have work to do to win over millennials. what about republicans in the years to come?

we'll talk about the rising generational battle in just a bit. >> first, bill karins with a check on the forecast. >> mika and joe, just look at haiti. when you talk about a category-4 powerful hurricane slowly moving past the country, this is going to be about as destructive as you will see. mountainous areas, i can only imagine how bad the pictures are going to be from the southwest peninsula. so right now, still a category 4. made landfall. now it's back over the water. cuba, you're next for a landfall. then we take the storm through the bahamas as wei go through wednesday. thursday, the northern bahamas, should be a direct hit for nassau and freeport, and then right along the southeast coastline of the united states. here's a closer zoomed in view of that pat. notice how close we are, west palm beach, 50 to 60 miles per hour away from the center line. everyone in the southeast is in the cone of uncertainty, and we're looking at major impact throughout north carolina and south carolina. this is where it should be closest to lafndfall as we go throughout saturday into sunday. florida, georgia, south

carolina, north carolina, today is your day for preparations for the worst. hope for the best. tomorrow will be a day for evacuations. we'll deal with this storm come thursday. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. in your mutual fund. we invested in your fund to help us pay for a college education for our son. we've enclosed a picture of our son so that you can get a sense there are real people out here trusting you with their hard-earned money. ♪ at fidelity, we don't just manage money, we manage people's money. ♪

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coming up on "morning joe" -- >> you got the donald. who just last week went on russian state television to talk down our military and to curry favor with vladimir putin. he loves this guy. loves this guy. think about -- think about what's happening in the republican party. >> president obama has been champing at the bit to get on the trail for hillary clinton.

chris jansing joins us to talk about why that's been so rare with modern sitting presidents. we're back in just a moment. ♪ audi pilotless vehicles have conquered highways, mountains, and racetracks. and now much of that same advanced technology is found in the audi a4. with one notable difference... ♪ the highly advanced audi a4, with available traffic jam assist. ♪

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you would be hard pressed to name another sitting president in modern history more hungry than barack obama is right now to get out on the campaign trail. joining us from the site of tonight's vice presidential debate in farmville, virginia,

senior correspondent chris jansing. you're there with the vice presidential debate, but you have been looking at president obama and his plan which includes tomorrow a stop in florida. >> i spent time with top aides to the president. he has been champing at the bit to get out there and the clinton campaign wants him, needs him. this is going to be very aggressive. he's going to get out one to two times a week throughout the month of october. he's doing to do big rallies, television, radio, and a presence on digital. lots of social media because the two areas where we know lik hik is underperforming compared to barack obama, millennials and the african-american vote. he's going to go to a historically black college in miami lakes, florida, tomorrow. here's my conversation with josh earnest. >> so no convince dnls then that he's going for his first big event, his fining push, to a historically black college in florida. >> the biggest swing state of

them all, and a place where the president has won twice. and the president's message is people have to not underestimate the significance of this election. the president's name isn't on the ballot in it way it was in 2008 and 2012, but the outcome of the election in the president's mind is every bit as important. >> what's he going to be saying? we have seen he hasn't had any problem going after donald trump pretty aggressively. having said that, they also know he has to make a very affirmative caseor hillary clinton, particularly to motivate the folks who are either going to go for a third-party candidate or not vote at all, talking about the millennials. take a look at the poll on millennials. the good news for hillary clinton is she's up seven times from the last time we saw this poll. the bad news is she still is far behind where barack obama was. you can see, she is at 51%. he was at 67% in 2012. so let's take a look at what

they're doing. not just the president, but there's this whole schedule of what they call super surrogates out on the campaign trail. today alone, hillary clinton herself will be out with two stops. elizabeth warren, bernie sanders in minnesota, bill clinton in ohio, and michelle obama in north carolina. two stops compared to the only person on donald trump's side is donald trump, who is making one stop in arizona. it's worth mentioning, i think, michelle obama, because the one person in the democratic party who is more popular than the president is michelle obama. and so i talked to -- i happened to run into her at the white house yesterday, and her chief of staff who said they're looking at getting her out every week. what they do is the campaign looks where they are in these various states. they're sot of making these decisions on a rolling basis. what they're going to do is absolutely historic. quick look for a bit of context of what we have seen in the past. think about john mccain, didn't

use bush. he was wildly unpopular because of the war. al gore distanced himself from bill clinton, in spite of the fact that bill clinton was at sgat% popularity rating at that point. humphrey with johnson, mired in vietnam, and my personal favorite is nixon when eisenhower was asked what ideas he had that contributed to his presidency, eisenhower said, give me a week to think about it. president obama says he doesn't need time to think about it. he's ready to get out there and get out in there a really, as they say, aggressive way. >> as you say, a couple tykes a week. another face that jumps out at you on the map isbust bernie sanders. they were so energized for him, not as much for secretary clinton as of yet. chris jansing at the site of the vice presidential debate in virginia, thanks so much. >> still ahead, is a cease and decease order for donald trump's charity just political payback. >> plus, several editorial

boardses have broken tradition to back hillary clinton. we'll talk to one republican strategist who also plans to vote for the democrat. boost

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yoyeah, i do.e? you guys are working on some pretty big stuff over there, right? like a new language for crazy-big, world-changing machines. well, not me specifically. i work on the industrial side. so i build the world-changing machines.

i get it. you can't talk because it's super high-level. no, i actually do build the machines. blink if what you're doing involves encrypted data transfer. wait, what? wowwww... wow? what wow? there is no wow. 38 past the hour. the new york attorney general's office has ordered the trump foundation to stop fund-raising in the state. nbc news has learned that trump's personal charity was served with a cease and desist order telling the foundation to stop soliciting contribution because it does not have properly certification. the note of violation letter asked the trump foundation to send any delinquent financial reports to eric schneiderman's office un15 days. this comes after reports that the foundation lacked a required state satisfaction to solicit

donors. the trump campaign responded with a statement reading in part, while we remain very concerned ability the political motives behind attorney general schneiderman's investigation, the trump foundation nevertheless intend to cooperate fully with the investigation. schneiderman, who recently opened an inquiry into the foundation, is a democrat supporting hillary clinton for president. >> you know, you said really down the middle, mika. a month before the election -- >> i know. i know. but i mean, he's obviously -- >> it's fine. we're not saying -- i'm sure that the foundation is just the worst foundation that's ever been set up, other than the clinton foundation. i mean, i don't know how to compare the two, but if it's so bad, why did you wait a month before the presidential election to drop this? >> if it's been so bad and so public, people have been talking about it for months, why take so long to drop it now?

>> sleeping on the job. kind of sad. >> joining us now, a republican strategist. we can talk to him about this. >> i don't think so. he wants to talk about kim kardashian. >> he does. he doesn't know anything about it until he does. evan siegfried. his new book is "gop gps, how to find the millennials and urban voters the republican party needs to survive." this is a function the republican party needs. >> how do we do that? it seems about as far fetched as cold fusion. so how do we do it? >> here's the big problem. we haven't been doing it. millennials are the largest generation in the united states, numbering almost 80 million. they surpassed baby boomers, and 1 in 5 identify with republicans and republican values. in the future, that's a big problem for us. >> we, you and me as republicans, what have we done through the years to turn millennial voters off? >> basically taken a less tolerant view of every group. millennials are the most diverse

generation in history. when you look at issues such as marriage equality. 75% of millennials believe in marriage equality. 66% of millennial republicans believe in marriage equality. we had a golden opportunity to chalsh -- >> the social issues. >> absolutely. millennials are the most fiscally conservative generation since the great depression. >> are they really? >> they are. they believe in entitlement reform, in school choice. there are many issues where we sync up with millennials but they're not receptive to us because they see the republican party as the party of the crusty old white guy. >> we seem too intolerant. >> mitch mcconnell doesn't excite them? >> come on, crusty old white guy. >> a candidate like marco rubio is supposed to help with some of this. young guy, latino guy, representing a very important state, and he crashed and burned in the primary because the voters, the republican voters. wanting donald trump. how do the people break through, more than anyone else in the

primary? >> when you're fighting to be the alternative to trump against 15 other candidates, that's pretty hard. so the way we actually go about and do this is talk to millennials on the issues that matter to them. bernie sanders was very successful in this despite his solutions being completely wrong. what bernie sanders talked about was student debt. and the average millennial in 2015 who graduated from college graduated with an average of $35,000 in student debt. republicans would mock his solutions of, oh, we'll increase taxes and dent free college. we should have turned around and said, wait a minute, why has the cost of college risen over the past decade. if you look at some colleges. there's the university of texas at austin who is now having luxury dorms that are better than most luxury apartment buildings in new york city. we can talk about that, or how administrations have been blowing up their staff but not increasing the number of professors. so there's a lot of stuff we can do as republicans and exercise fiscal conservatism to actually bring down student debt without raising taxes. >> i think bernie sanders is a great model. he's speaking, by the way, at

hopkins, and the kids are going crazy. they're going crazy. >> bernie sanders is a great model to talk about problems. but you know, i think you're exactly right. we can talk about education. we can talk about education reform. you can talk about all the money americans spent on education and all the money americans spent on health care. more money per pupil than any other nation in the world. we don't get the results. health care, we spend more money on health care per person than any other place in the world. we don't get the results. it's because of broken, old, corrupt systems. >> how do you grow the republican party with millennials? how do you incorporate millennials into the republican party, when i agree with you. a lot of millennials i know, some my own children, they care te deeply about the tax bite and how their dollars are sent, and yet, the way they want to lead their lives are directly opposite to much of what the republican party stands for. >> we have to combat caricatures that have been perpetuated about republicans. we're not this intolerant party.

we don't have war on women. one way we can do that is with elder care. more and me men leave the work force or take lower paying jobs to take care of an older relative when they're reaching the end of their life. it takes $33 billion out of the economy annually. that's not counting social security benefits we would be collecting taxes on. and then, once that relative passes away, they can't re-enter the work force or move up. that is a hindrance on women. so if we want to become the champion of women as a party, which we can be and should be, we have to go out and address issues such as that. democrats have been silent. >> really quickly, you're voting for -- >> i'll be voting for hillary clinton over donald trump. he lacks the judgment, temperament, and pretty much everything required to be president of the united states. >> "gop gps." evan siegfried, thank you for being on the show. still ahead on "morning joe." >> i don't need anybody's money. it's nice. i don't need anybody's money. i'm using my own money. i'm not using the lobbyists, not

using donors. i don't care. i'm really rich. >> wow. >> donald trump's wealth has been -- >> i just laughed because the reaction, everybody is horrified. everybody like spitz out their coffee. i'm really rich. i saw three people at the table like -- >> so his wealth has become a big topic of conversation in the election, but now a new question. is he a good billionaire or a bad one, and who is to say? the chief global strategist for morgan stanley joins us to discuss what makes a billionaire good or bad? we'll bow right back.

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days talking about donald trump's taxes and speculation over how much he has or possibly has not paid. with wealth as a central issue throughout this campaign, we sat down with the head of emerging markets and chief global strategist at morgan stanley. his new book is "the rise and fall of nations, forces of change in the post-crisis world." we began with a look at how the 2008 economic crisis has upended thinking in nearly every aspects of our lives. >> what i do in the book is basically split it into bc and ac. bc is before crisis, and ac is after crisis. everything we believed in about the world in the bc era has been turned on its head in the ac era. the politics, the economics, in terms of trade. everything has been turned on its head. so look at what's happening in

the political scene, for example. which is that in the last decade, it shows 2 out of 3 leaders were winning re-election because economic growth was so widespread and so high across the world. look at what's happening now. last year, 2 out of 3 incumbents fighting for re-election across the world lost their re-election. right? and the approval ratings of leaders across the world today is at an all-time low. so we looked at the approval ratings of the 20 largest democracies in the world, and today, those approval ratings of the leaders is at an all-time low, down 20 percentage points on average compared to this point last decade. >> in 1989, paul kennedy wrote obviously a landmark book that's close to the title of yours, the rise and fall of the great powers. kennedy says, of course, large military expenditures and exhaustion used to make great powers collapse. what is it -- what is the

characterstruck thistic that yo powers rising now? what is the characteristic you're seeing in nations than fall? >> what i try to do is come up with the ten most important things to look at in terms of which nations are rising and which are falling. what are some of those factors? for example, take politics. so we come up with a circle of life theory. what we come up with here is nations tend to do the best when they elect new leaders and in the first two years of a new leader, you get the maximum bang for the buck. the longer a leader stays in the office, the worst it is for the country. that's where i use the examples of russia and turkey. the putin i met in 2000, 2001, was very different than the putin i met in 2010. by 2010, he had become a totally different person completely than when he first came to office. when he first came to office, he wanted to reform, wanted to make his economy more like a european economy. by 2010, he wanted to do everything to stay on in power.

one thing that makes a nation better is when you elect new liters. it's the first two years that you get the maximum bang for the buck. >> let's go back to bc and ac. income inequality domestically and globally, bc and ac, is it worse today than it was bc? are the effects of it, ramifications politically worse today than before the crisis? >> in general. an entire chapter dedicated to good and bad billionaires. how do you know that a country basically is on the right path to growth or the wrong path, and pie point, when you're creating too many bad billionaires in a country -- >> what are bad billionaires? >> so, what i call bad billionaires are people coming from industries which require government connections or some sort of playing the game, playing the system to try to create wealth. which industries are these? real estate, mining, commodities, oil kind of industries across the world. which are the good billionaires?

they typically come from technology, pharmaceuticals, manufacturing. >> inventions? >> inventions, innovation, research and development. that's sort of what does it. on balance, the medical is still okay because you look at what's happening in russia and mexico. there is absolutely no way i hate to say this, but a billionaire would be able to run for office in those countries. because such is the animosity out there toward wealth and toward the rich, because they all think the wealth has been created by unfair means. that the rich in the country are in general vilified. but at least out here, like in america, the fact that you, that someone like trump, maybe he's a bad billionaire giving how his wealth has been created, but in general, we still respect wealth creation. so income inequality is an issue, but it's not like russia and mexico, like if you're a billionaire, you better be in hiding and cannot have a high profile because such is the

animosity there toward the rich. >> the book is "the rise and fall of nations." thank you so much. >> we'll be right back with more "morning joe." is it a caregiver determined to take care of her own? or is it a lifetime of work that blazes the path to your passions? your personal success takes a financial partner who values it as much as you do. learn more at tiaa.org

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>> time now to talk about what we learned today. >> is that what we're doing now? not romper room. i see willie. what did you learn? >> i learned a lot of these swing state polls are tighter than hillary clinton would like them to be, although donald trump's path remains very narrow. >> mike, what did you learn? >> a lot of things are going on in the world that are far more important than this presidential election. one is poor kim kardashian. we have lived with the weight of it all morning without mentioning it. >> the thing is she keeps her head so low. keeps her head down, so how do they know where she was? >> right. stop. >> that's really the scandal. how did they figure her out? come on. it's like, where in the world is waldo? >> that does it for us. >> i tell you what i learned. i learned actually that jim vandehei, very good. who is laughing? jim vandehei, i like his end zone dancing thing.

>> stephanie ruhle picks up the coverage right now from the site of the vp debate in farmville, virginia. good morning. i'm stephanie ruhle. [ inaudible ] this is what happens when you get me out early. i'm deg to take credit for pumping this crowd up here at longwood university, where tonight, the vice presidential candidates are squaring off, but the main contenders, they are not letting go of the spotlight. riding high, new polls show

hillary clinton with a healthy post-debate bounce, as the candidates battle over donald trump's tax returns. >> here's my question. what kind of genius loses a billion dollars in a single year? >> i have brilliantly used those laws. >> and under fire. military veterans are going after trump for these comments about troops with ptsd. >> you're strong and you can handle it, but a lot of people can't handle it. >> is this man a role model. the republican senator who was asked if he should be a role model for president? >> i think he could serve as president, so i would do that. >> now she is taking heat and backing down. saying she misspoke. well, guess what? we're only 12 hours away from the vp debate, pence versus kaine. i'll telyou the debate hall is getting ready, but governor pence, he's setting the stage. >> it really is fun t