football-related election handicapping method. it's alabama versus lsu. since 1964, the republican candidate won the white house every time that lsu won and the democratic came out on top every year the crimson tide has rolled. the two candidates face off saturday night in baton rouge. lsu is undefeated under ed ojeron. i'll count that as last-minute research before i wake up to do "meet the press" on sunday night. you never want to play in baton rouge in a night game. that's all for tonight. "with all due respect" starts right now. >> i'm john heilemann. >> and i'm mark halperin. and with all due respect to 7-eleven and cumberland pharmacy, apparently, donald trump is a wawa man. we are just one very endless week away from election day,

folks. i'm out here in eau claire, wisconsin, where donald trump is holding a rally later tonight, as questions swirl about whether his narrow path to the presidency is widening maybe just a bit. both the gop nominee and hillary clinton are making a final push for votes everywhere. trump announced today that he is spenting $25 million over the next few days on tv ads here in the badger state and in other blue states, including colorado, virginia, michigan, and new mexico. clinton's campaign, in turn, is making six-figure buys in each of those states, which not too long ago seemed safely in her column. clinton surrogates are also campaigning in some of those same states, where trump is now seemingly on a bit of offense here in wisconsin. tim kaine is appearing, bill clinton going to colorado. hillary clinton today had some harsh words for her political opponent. and this explanation about why the race might get more negative before it's over. at a rally today, clinton went back to her tried and true tactic of this campaign.

for her, she appeared on stage with the miss universe pageant winner, alicia machado, and brought up the subject of trump and women. >> contestants say that donald trump came in to look at them when they were changing. some of them were just 15 years old. we cannot hide from this. we've got to be willing to face it. this bhaman wants to be preside of the united states of america! >> today, a new abc news/"washington post" tracking poll, the data from that survey has trump now leading by 1% nationally. that's, of course, within the margin of error. but, oh, the symbolism of trump being ahead, after being well behind in that poll. and amid everybody wondering if the revived fbi probe into clinton's e-mail practices might be doing her some damage, her campaign says, it raised $11.3 million online in the past 72 hours. so, john, seven days left, is

there any real evidence that trump is catching up? >> well, mark, you know, we are still suffering a little bit from a possit possity of pollin. we're still trying to figure out what the impact of the comey letter has been. there's the abc/"washington post" poll that has trump ahead by one right now. other than that, which everyone's hanging a lot on right now, if you look across all the other polling, there's no doubt that the race is tightening a little bit. but there's not a compelling case that it's tightening a lot so far. >> you know, i think the most compelling case would come from the clinton side. they're going back on tv in some of these states. they're sending surrogates, tim kaine to ohio, bill clinton here to wisconsin. that doesn't mean they're panicking or that her numbers are showing a decline. they're being careful. trump's going on offense in these places.

why not play defense. i don't think we can jump to the conclusion that that's in any way decisively meaningful. it does suggest, if they weren't the least bit worried about wisconsin or colorado or michigan, they wouldn't be trying to buttress themselves there. they'd be focused on winning north carolina, and ending trump's chances. >> one of the things that's true is that the clinton campaign has amassed a really large stockpile of dollars over the course of the last 15, 16, 18 months. and we're now at the point where, there's no point holding on to that money. you might as well spend it if you have it. so i tend to think they've always said the race was going to be tight. and if we're now in the last seven days, again, don't leave, as they say, don't leave a bullet in the chamber that you don't fire when it comes to ads. that's what those things are. they're bullets. why not get on the air? >> you're totally right about the money. if they've got enough to flood the air waves and saturate in the key battlegrounds, of course. it's those visits though. bill clinton's time is very

valuable. the fact that they're sending him to colorado. tim kaine's time, very valuable. the fact they're sending him to wisconsin means, again, that they're at least keeping an eye on those states. and the trump campaign today said in a conference call with the rnc, with the press this afternoon, that their path involves winning the big four of florida, ohio, iowa, and north carolina, but the reality is, if they lose north carolina, we said yesterday, could break their back, maybe they're going to find a replacement here in wisconsin. but she's still ahead. >> and the other thing that's really clear, we're not anymore talking about georgia and texas and the democrats trying to expand the map. there's no question about that. all right, today is november the 1st, which obviously means it's the first day of open enrollment for obamacare. this comes just a week after news that some people will see shocking rate hikes, or at least substantial rate hikes, and fewer insurance options under the affordable care act next year. a story line that the trump campaign considers to be something of a gift in this

final stretch of the election. that delight was on full display today in king of prussia, pennsylvania, where donald trump and his running mate, mike pence, called for health care policy changes, including the end of individual mandates and the ability for americans to shop for insurance plans across state lines. >> before it was called obamacare, it was called hillarycare. even former president bill clinton said, costs are going up, coverage is going down. it's the craziest thing in the world. i guess even with the clintons, sometimes truth happens. president obama said, here's the quote. quote, when one of these companies comes out with a new smartphone that has a few bugs, what do they do? they fix it. they upgrade it. unless it catches fire. then they pull it off the market. well, what a coincidence, mr. president, because that's exactly what we're going to do with obamacare. we're going to pull it off the market so it stops burning up

our wallets! >> the president said, if you like your plan, you can keep your plan. if you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor. which may go down as one of the great political lies of the century. she wants to put the government totally in charge of health care in america. if we don't repeal and replace obamacare, we will destroy american health care forever. it's one of the single most important reasons why we must win on november 8th. >> there has not been much polling about how news of these rate hikes is affecting the popularity of obamacare, but, mark, is your view, at this point, that this is a sleeper issue that might make a real difference in this presidential race? >> well, that seems to certainly be the view of the republicans. of course, they have hammered on the affordable care act since it passed. the polling, as you and i have

discussed many times, is more negative than positive about the law. it certainly energizes the republican base. it unites all republicans, really, almost in every case. it unites a lot of independents who don't like it, particularly business people, and the trump campaign claims this issue, last monday when this broke, is what started to turn things, they say, in their favor. so i think an issue involving the real lives of real people, that plays into, even though a lot of the coverage is overstated, the extent of the hikes and the extent of the problem, i think this may be the sleeper issue right now that republicans ride through direct mail and digital, et cetera, to an advantage with a lot of voters. >> yeah, i disagree. for one, if there was a time when obamacare was going to be a decisive issue, it should have been in 2012. we saw what happened there. it did not sink barack obama in 2012. >> that's because mitt romney was a horrible messenger on health care. >> that gets to our next question. is donald trump a great messenger on this? i don't think. in addition to the fact that he has no alternative, i'll just

point out that he was just lying kind of gratuitously in that clip we showed recently, that hillary clinton wants to have the government take over all of health care in america. that's just blatantly false. he also, as i said, doesn't have an alternative. but the other thing that's true is that you're right. obamacare is more popular than it is popular. more people dislike it than like it. but the numbers are -- it's not that much more unpopular, which is to say the split between favorable and unfavorable is only a few points. and it's been really stable for now two or three years. the split, high 40s versus mid- to low 40s on the unfave versus fave. and i don't think what happened last week is going to radically change that to the point it's really going to matter on election day. >> just let me be clear. i know we've got to go, but let me be clear. i don't think it's a silver bullet. i don't think it's going to be some huge game changer. all i'm saying is between bill clinton inc. and wikileaks, the comey comment and health care, i think health care may be the one that is helping trump the most.

>> all right. i'll take that under advisement, as your doctor. up next, russia and taxes, a trump tale. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ ♪ style lets you stand out from the herd. what's inside sets you apart.

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there has been a truckload of main headlines for donald trump, just in the past 24 to 36 hours. and lucky us, they fit nicely into two categories. some have to do with donald trump's finances. we will get to those in a moment. but first, mother russia. in the past 24 hours, we have read four, count 'em, four different reports examining potential ties the between trump world and what mitt romney likes to call our nation's biggest geopolitical faux. first we've got mother jones with the story that cites, quote, a veteran spy who specializes the in russian counterintelligence. that story says the fbi received investigation about the russian government allegedly trying to co-opt and help trump over the past five years. nbc news also rather than a story that says federal authorities have been looking

into former trump campaign chairman, paul manafort's business dealings in russia, though not as a criminal matter. meanwhile, slate says that computer scientists have been looking into possible communication between a server belonging to trump and two servers registered to a major russian bank. and in "the new york times," with its own soviet-inspired piece yesterday, they knocked down that theory, reporting that while the fbi has been looking into multiple leads involving trump and russia, including that server business, no evidence has emerged that linked the gop candidate or any of his inner circle directly to the russian government. so, mark, that's a mouthful they just read. some of these reports contradict each other. all have been denied. my questions to you are the following. is there any there there? and if so, will it matter in the outcome of this presidential race? >> well, there's no doubt that after this election, the press is going to have to do a lot of soul searching about its failure to pursue a lot of these trump

stories over the course of a year and a half. there's a lot of stories that didn't get enough coverage, that should have gone from print to television. in this case, on this bundle of stories, i think trump's praise of putin, trump's failure to put out his tax returns to disclose whether he's got dealings in russia that he's denied, i think those are the big russia stories that have some tangibility. this swirl of stories, i think, probably won't matter much. and based on what we know, i'm not sure any of them do. if some of them turned out to be true, they would be a huge deal, but i don't think there's enough there right now to say that they are. >> i agree with that and pretty much everything you just said. it is one of the great outrages of this campaign, and there have been many of them, but we've beat this drum for a long time, that donald trump did not put out his tax returns, and as much as we called for it, we couldn't get any leverage on that. >> the world should have come to a halt. >> it would have been nice, if it had. and a big part of the reason why, when people say, why do you want to see the tax returns, we

really want to know, is trump in bed with russia, does he owe them money? what are the financial connections, because of the fact that he has had such a strange consistent fondness for vladimir putin. and given that the russians according to all the national security and intelligence agencies that are responsible for these hacks that have consumed so much of our time, trying to influence our election in this way, we should know more about a lot of the things these stories glance at, get at. there's some contradiction, but, man, this is something that still feels really, really suspicious and hinky to me. >> yeah, when trump failed to denounce putin when asked about his murdering of journalists, i really do think, in a campaign filled with low points, that was really one of the low points. somebody who claims the mantle of ronald reagan and wants to associate himself with ronald reagan, to have replied the way he did. so i think, i think trump's overall me that relationship and relationship with russia is a

big deal, should be a big deal, but again, i don't know that any of these stories here, particularly in the context of the comey thing, are going to break through. >> i'll add to the low points, that says a parallel thing to that thing you mentioned, which is the notion that we had a republican nominee or a nominee for either party saying that vladimir putin is a better, stronger leader, or at least a stronger leader, than the president of the united states, barack obama, or any president of the united states. i'm really interested, i hope someone will look into this conflict between "the new york times" and that slate story. because if that slate story is true, that's really damning. the notion of a server linked up directly to a russian bank. that would get us into some interesting story, and i don't really understand how those two stories could come to such opposite conclusions on that front. >> all right. confusing? here's something else a little bit confusing. donald trump's financial dealings. they are once again manking new in various ways in this presidential race. there's another "new york times" story out today that show documents that purport to show that back in the early '90s,

trump used a sketchy tax avoidance maneuver around the time his atlantic city casinos were filing for bankruptcy. the move would have saved trump tens of millions of dollars in federal income tax and the documents obtained cited by the times purportedly show that even trump's own lawyers called the gambit legally questionable. two other stories along the same lines, "washington post" had a story, one that came out amidst the comey comment the other day from the great david fahrenthold, who was a fahrenthold classic, it raises more questions, more questions about trump's charitable giving claims. the other "washington post" story is a mattea gold standard about trump apparently refusing or at least re-evaluating payment to his campaign pollster, tony fabrizio. so, same question we asked about the russia stuff. is there any there there on the financial stories and will any matter in the last week? >> well, i think "the new york times" piece is on the basis of how much it gets into this detail of another -- it's now

the second big "new york times" piece that suggests that donald trump has played the tax system in a way that no normal human being could and has avoided paying taxes for many, many years. i think that story is as devastating, maybe more devastating than the first one, that suggested that he might -- he could have not paid taxes for many, many years. i think, you know, look, donald trump's hiding his tax returns. we just talked about this in the last topic. he's hiding them for a reason. it now seems to be circumstantially clear that the reason he's hiding them is because he hasn't paid any taxes for a really long time and he understands the political damage from that would be huge. and that he's willing to take the damage of not being disclosive rather than taking the damage of what if it was all laid bare for people to see. i'm glad "the times" has been on this story and i think for some number of people in the country, th is the kind of thing that is like disqualifying or as disqualifying as anything else trump has done. >> yep. i urge voters to read "the

washington post's" two stories as well as that times story. they're all really interesting. they give you a fuller picture of donald trump. i don't think any of them, again, will be game changers in the last week. but they're all important and good for them to continue to pursue investigative journalism, all the way through. i will say, again, for republicans and others who don't like the fact that donald trump is the nominee, the people who did their opposition research for the other 16 candidacy ates need to wonder and ask themselves, how could they have not found this stuff? >> all right. when we come back, we will take a swing through the polling jungle with our favorite survey monkey man, right after this. this is humira helping to relieve my pain and protect my joints from further damage. this is humira helping me go further. humira works for many adults. it targets and helps to block a specific source of inflammation that contributes to ra symptoms. humira has been clinically studied for over 18 years. humira can lower your ability to fight infections,

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free at at discover.com/creditscorecard, even if you're not a custome welcome back to the badger state. election day is a week away. we're keeping a close eye on all the polls, as are you. so is our next guest. joining us now from stanford, california, is john cohen, the senior vp of survey research at survey monkey, whose latest poll along with nbc news shows clinton with a six-point national lead in the four-way. we had him on two weeks ago, when you had a rosy projection for hillary clinton. there was talk back then of her breaking 300 electoral votes, et cetera. we're two weeks later, one e-mail bombshell later. how are things looking? >> well, as you said, last time we were talking about, could she reach 400, actually, i think was the question at the time. and now we're talking about how she can solidify her path to 270. and we're doing a 50-state

tracking poll at survey monkey. and in today's map that we released, she's at 262. she has to recover a little bit to get passed the 270 and beyond to create a mandate. >> so, john, is this, is this -- the reason this is tightening, is this being driven mainly by the comey letter or is this a natural tightening? >> we're doing a seven-day track, we're 3 1/2 days pre-comey and 3 1/2 days post. we don't know whether or not we're looking at noise or not. at the state level, we're looking at little, small changes. she's a little ahead in some toss-up states where if she gets them all, she'll be well into the 300s again. right now the map certainly looks different. the mainly issue is just a bad one for her, the e-mail issue. 83% of likely voters think it was inappropriate that she used a private e-mail server when she was secretary of state. when the attention is on her and with her historic unpopularity, she's more vulnerable. on the flip side, you talked

about all the stories on your last segment about donald trump. when the focus is on him, he suffers, because he also has unfavorability ratings just as high as hers. >> john, i'm here in wisconsin, where trump and pence are coming in just a little bit, and we saw them in michigan yesterday, out in new mexico. are -- is your sense that those states have moved at all, and the trump campaign has a reasonable chance of winning one or more of them, or is this out of desperation because they can't fine 270 votes in their original plan? >> we've had wisconsin much higher than everybody else. we've had wisconsin up a single percentage point day to day. that's down from leaning in her direction a few days ago. we have to see in the coming days whether she's the truly in that toss-up category, whether it moves more solidly back in clinton's camp, but it's certainly vulnerable. and the e-mail issue and the focus on it kind of makes the turnout and focus for the clinton campaign 15% of clinton's own voters think the e-mail issue and the fbi's

reopening of the case is a major issue to discuss, not simply a distraction. >> john, i think the last time, when we were talking about the 400 electoral vote question around hillary clinton, one of the questions we were talking about it was in the context of a bunch of expansion/reach states for democrats. utah, arizona, texas, georgia. are those now off the table for hillary clinton or are some of those still in play? >> well, as of today, texas is off the table, but georgia and arizona are still there. of course, that's not the campaign's main focus now. it's in wisconsin, as mark mentioned. it's even in michigan, where our data show that as a toss-up. and some softening in north carolina. >> can you talk about utah? i'm interested in that one because it's such a weird race. >> we have trump up a few points over clinton and then a few points more over mcmullin, but mcmullin has clearly gained momentum over the past couple of weeks, but we're asking that every day, as we are everywhere else. >> john, take a moment and

explain to people the methodology that survey monkey uses. >> sure. so the key to any good survey these days is a good random sample, and we have the luxury at survey monkey of having 3 million respondents a day to the survey that are sent out by friends that you may have, kind of, what to bring to a barbecue. what to bring to another party or your employer or some company you buy something from. and what we're doing is doing random sampling on the back of those surveys and getting estimates on a rolling basis. we've interviewed about 1 million people over the course of this campaign. and now we're doing daily in the states. it's a real unprecedented effort, as far as polling goes. you know, we're doing not only all 50 states, but we just published a little while ago results in all 34 senate races and all the gubernatorial contests, as well. so it's a major effort that we -- and we're sharing those learnings as well as the results on a daily basis. >> so, john, in a phrase or two,

how would you evaluate donald trump's chances of winning 270 electoral votes? >> still extraordinarily slim, but there's now uncertainty in the contests where there wasn't when i was last on the program. >> okay. john cohen, the great john cohen, thank you very much. you just heard about the numbers in this contest. when we come back, we're going to talk about the strategy, right after this. i have asthma... ...one of many pieces in my life. so when my asthma symptoms kept coming back on my long-term control medicine. i talked to my doctor and found a missing piece in my asthma treatment with breo. once-daily breo prevents asthma symptoms. breo is for adults with asthma not well controlled on a long-term asthma control medicine, like an inhaled corticosteroid. breo won't replace a rescue inhaler for sudden breathing problems. breo opens up airways to help improve breathing for a full 24 hours. breo contains a type of medicine that increases the risk of death

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if and when hillary is president, what do you think will be the female equivalent of "you weren't born in this country?" >> that's an interesting question. >> thank you, i have a lot of those. >> i think the equivalent will be, she's tired, she's moody,

she's being emotional. >> there's just something about her. >> there's something about her. when men are ambitious, it's just taken for granted. . well, of course, they should be ambitious. when women are ambitious, why? that theme, i think, will continue, throughout her presidency. and it's contributed to this notion that somehow she, uh, is hiding something. >> that was president obama on tbs' "full frontal with samantha bee" last night. joining us is a.j. delgado and clinton supporter harold ford jr. hi, guys. what'd you think about that, obama and bee there? >> he's always interesting, she's a talented comedian. so it's always nice to have a sitting president comment with a little bit of humor on the election. i'm fine with that. >> so tell me about why you think the race is right now? you're here representing the trump campaign. what do you think? we've been talking about it all half of the show. what do you think it is? >> i think we can all agree it's tightening in mr. trump's favor.

we saw a huge swing, that's an understatement, in the abc poll, where we were down by 13 points about a week ago and now up one. rasmuss rasmussen, we're tied and in certain swing states, it's a dead heat. she's losing her lead in virginia. this is not looking good for hillary clinton. >> harold, what do you think about that? >> i think there's no doubt that the numbers have tightened. we remain confident in all the battlegrounds. i think there's a lot for mr. trump to overcome in the last few days. put aside this weekend story regarding mr. comey, the facts of the race don't change and the positions that she's taken and that mr. trump has taken and the direction they want to take the country, none of that has changed. so if you feel like hillary clinton was the best position to lead the country, to make us safer and stronger again and more prosperous, nothing has changed between now and last wednesday that would cause any voter to say, i don't believe she's capable of doing that. >> we just talked earlier about this in the show, harold, about the kind of pan apply of negative headlines and bad stories about donald trump, some related to russia, some related to his taxes, some related to

other financial matters. if you were running the clinton campaign, which you're not, what would you want to focus on among those stories to drive the narrative over the course of the last six or seven days? >> i think the fact that mr. trump refuses to release tax returns. the fact that mr. trump has had business dealings where he's had old partners of hi say, i didn't feel like i was treated fairly by him. i would focus there, her, some on the negative part. but i would take these last few days to lay out where i want to take the country. i think the mandate she's going to have is going to be predicated not only on making clear why donald trump is not fit to be president. i think that narrative is out there. no disrespect to a.j. but i think that narrative on our side has been put out there. i think for her to have a mandate when she's elected, she's got to remind people about her infrastructure spending. she's got to remind people about her raise in wages. she's got to remind middle class families, this is about empowering you, through making health care more affordable and education more assessable. good education options.

i'm ready to be president. i'm ready to manage world affairs on america's behalf and ready to grow this any in a way to build on the successes of the last eight years. >> a.j., do you want to respond? >> i've got to disagree with that, harold, with all due respect, no pun intended. i do think the last few days have changed things for voters. i think when we have hundreds of thousands of e-mails that have ended up on anthony weiner's laptop, a man of very dubious character, we have to ask from a national security standpoint, which is a top issue for nearly every american voter, how could this person then be elected to serve at the highest levels of office? at the highest levels of handling classified information. she's already shown herself not being able to do that. and that just proves it. and as far as the mandate, mr. trump for the past year has been traveling across the country, laying out specific plans, even plans on issues as detailed as combatting the heroin epidemic we're facing in this country. i don't hear hillary clinton speaking about that. on jobs, on trade, on immigration, on border security

participate i remember reading one independent article that said that hillary clinton is a great candidate, but a policy-free one. and i thought that was such an astute observation, she always speaks in these vague platitudes about raising wages and all these things she'll promise, but it's lalmost policy and specifis free. >> you have 800 payments of policy on her website versus about 100 on yours. >> and you judge it based on the website. >> a fair amount of detail which you guys have not done. >> her immigration policy on her website is frightening to any american voter who's concerned about immigration and security at the border. >> we can say a lot of things about secretary clinton, but one thing that's unfair is she has not been specific about policies over the course of her public life. in fact, i think she's probably been too specific at times and drawn voters to think that maybe she's not as exciting a candidate, because that's where her focus has been. >> obamacare, do you take credit, then, as she does, for obamacare, which has proven to be a disaster this month. >> well, it hasn't proven to be a disaster. it needs to be fixed.

>> come on, harold. >> she's indicated she's ready to fix part of it and so has president obama. >> she said, let's be clear, she recently tweeted, before they called it obamacare, they called it hillarycare. >> if one of the differences on our campaigns is we're going to sure that the 22 to 23 million americans who have health insurance now because of the affordable care act have health care, i'll embrace that and take that. does it mean to be fixed, of cour course. >> harold, is there any way to look at the fact that tim kaine is in colorado, is there any way to read that except concern for the clinton campaign that trump may be threatening in these states? >> we're near the end of the campaign and they understand that turnout and every vote matters. so i would hope -- and you can read what you may want to read into it. but i don't think there's any doubt the race has tightened. i think if you were to ask a lot of clinton operatives and those very close to the campaign day to day if they were surprised by this, i think most would say no.

there's no doubt there was surprise last week with the way mr. comey decided to inform congress and voters as to what he was doing, and the way in which he described it. so i don't deny that. but i don't think anyone should be surprised that our top operatives and our best campaigns are out in the best states. we need to win those states and send our best people there. >> okay. a.j., i know you've been asked this before. i'm going to make one last try. mr. trump doesn't want to release his tax returns, he says, because he's under audit. why can't he release for every year, simply, his income, his effective federal tax rate and his charitable deduction amounts? >> because that's all intertwined with the audit. and mark, with all due respect, again, i keep saying that phrase, really, the only tax return that matters to the american voter at the end of the day is my own and those of my friends and families. it's only donald trump that has a plan to put more money back in our pockets, return those jobs we've lost andreate more jobs. i don't think this is a big

issue for the american public. it is for the media that is intent on bringing down donald trump with the silliness of the tax returns. we're too busy caring about our own tax returns to worry about that. >> releasing those numbers have nothing to do with the audit. i would urge you to ask him to release those, so people can have a little more information, as they have about every general election candidate. >> -- i would never suggest somebody release this. and i can't believe a week into the election, we're discussing this rather than the 650,000 e-mails that ended up on anthony weiner's laptop, which is a huge national security concern. don't know why we're still on that topic. >> we're discussing both. have less than 30 seconds. ask you each for a headline. what will a headline be for the newspaper a day after the election. harold? >> clinton wins and mandate is understood. raise wages and empower the middle class. >> a.j.? >> people's champion wins in a landslide. america wins.

>> clinton wins again. >> one headline, right, you said per person? >> typical clinton cheat over here. >> we just met, too. wow! we just met! >> she keeps saying with all due respect, i don't think she knows what that phrase means, harold. that's a little harsh. i don't think either one of you should be in the headline-writing business. a.j. delgado and harold ford jr., thank you both for coming on. coming up, we have ralston reports with, the great john ralston reports, next. and if you're watching us in washington, d.c., you can listen to us on the radio, radio bloomberg 99.1 f.m. we'll be right back. he was 34% eastern european. so i went onto ancestry, soon learned that one of our ancestors we thought was italian was eastern european. this is my ancestor who i didn't know about. he looks a little bit like me, yes. ancestry has many paths to discovering your story.

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back in wisconsin in time for our very own customized ralston report. with us from vegas, john ralston, the editor of "the ralston reports," a columnist at the gazette journal, and a contributing editor at the politico. john, welcome! what is going on in the u.s. senate race there for harry reid's seat, and how is that impacting potentially the presidential race? >> yeah, it's a very good question. i guess i have to tell you that i think this is the most amazing senate race that i've covered. and you guys know, i've covered every one since 1986. it's going to be $100 million race, more outside spending than i've ever seen. and i really think it could go either way, still.

and it essentially has boiled down to joe heck not versus catherine cortez masto but, joe heck versus harry reid. harry reid has been all over this race, in the background on one side and in the foreground on the republican side and while the early voting numbers don't look good for the republicans, remember what happened in 2012. obama won the state by almost seven and dean heller pulled out the senate race by 12,000 votes. >> so, john, is the fact that the senate race is competitive the kind of coalition the two senate candidates are trying to put together, does that advantage either of the presidential candidates? >> you know, it's interesting, mark, because i think they're totally divorced from each other in many ways. and not just because heck divorced himself from trump, which nesinitially caused him at of problem, even his campaign would admit, but doesn't really now. the coordinated campaign between the hillary clinton campaign and

the reid democratic machine has been so focused on getting out the democratic base, which i think is going 90% for clinton, 90% for cortez masto. and what i understand, heck, so far is mirroring trump, which is a real problem for him. the entire heck strategy in this logistics is knowing they're going to lose early voting to hope to minimize that loss and win on election day by four, maybe five points. little margin for error there. >> so, john, i want to step back and get a little bit more altitude on the discussion, with just on the presidential race in your state, okay? somehow, nevada has become one of the key states for donald trump, that he's going to have a path to get 270 electoral votes. if you looked at barack obama's victories in 2008 and 2012, and the demographic composition of your state, you wouldn't have thought that nevada would be up there with places like iowa and ohio, much whiter states. you wouldn't have thought that would be one of the keys to

trump winning, yet, he's competitive there. so just explain to me why. >> well, it's a very good question, john. and i guess what i would say about that is, is he competitive here? i always thought that the state leans towards clintons, for the reasons that you mentioned. the fact that the hispanic vote is probably going to be above 20%. but, i always go back to what trump said on the night that he won the caucus here, when he looked at the exit polling and he was almost surprised, and he said, what none of us would say aloud, look at how i did among the poorl equitied. i love the poorly educated. nevada has a lot of poorly educated folks, no doubt about it. but i don't think there's a path hear for trump, unless there's a total implosion in the early voting numbers in the last four days, but they must have polling that shows that, because trump was here and then because they're continuing to campaign hard here with surrogates, including the great jon voight appearance tomorrow. >> you're looking forward to

that, i'm sure. but the reality is not only are they spending time there, but the polling there has been kind of see sawed back and forth, kind of suggested, trump's been ahead in some polling there and it's been tighter than you would have expected. so, again, what explains the fact it's even in play? i would have thought given the demographic trends, that this staf would have been put away for hillary clinton in the way that colorado seems to have been put away for her months ago. >> well, i think that's a reasonable assumption. and let's assume for a second the polls are right. i'm not so sure that's a good assumption. because you guys and i have talked about polling in nevada for years. it is not good here. it's very difficult to poll here. but here's what's going on here. and you will get some sophisticated democrats to acknowledge this. hillary clinton is not barack obama. there was real excitement, enthusiasm, the base got out enthusiastically to vote for barack obama here in 2008 and 2012. there is much more dragging out of homes, having to bus people,

doing things they didn't do before. there's a lot more registration in gee owe tv groups on the ground here, on the democratic side, than there ever have been before. and there's one other phenomenon that's going on here, that's going on elsewhere, in early voting, young, african-americans are not getting out to vote in the numbers they did in 2008 and 2012. >> great john ralston, thank you. we'll check in with you begun so again soon, i hope. up next, while much of the national media is gathered here in eau claire, wisconsin, tonight, we wrestled two of them to the ground and had them come join us. that after words from our sponsors. i just want to find a used car without getting ripped off. start at the new carfax.com show me used trucks with one owner. pretty cool. [laughs] ah... ahem... show me the carfax. start your used car search at the all-new carfax.com.

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so you see the guy every day. where do you think his head is at as his campaign expresses more confidence, his inner confidence that he can win or will win? >> well, you know, ever since that fbi reopening of the investigation, i've noticed a shift on the trail. not only in the crowds, but also in the candidate himself. you know, just when that broke, we were all over the country in the past three days and he's definitely seen a new energy. it's definitely been a shift, quite frankly, since the last time that i was here and all those accusations from all those women have come out. >> katy, i get why we see trump and pence together in pennsylvania today, doing the affordable care act event, because they really want to emphasize that message and pence has some expertise there, but why are they together in wisconsin as opposed to the norm of fanning out? >> reporter: well, what they

needed to do in philadelphia was find a way to get those suburban women to join trump. and they feel like the best ally they have is governor mike pence. so who better to come out on stage and nail through these or hammer through these policy points. it is interesting that they are so laser focused right now on the offeredable care act. you know, mark, you and i have been talking about how donald trump should have been hammering the wikileaks stuff a little more but kept straying from it. it seems like someone finally got into his ear and is telling him to stay on these issues that will benefit him, and potentially help him gain ground, going through the election season. through the next week. but it is notable, governor pence was with him outside of philadelphia. ha he's staying in pennsylvania, because pennsylvania, frankly, much more so than wisconsin, is a must-win state. if they don't get pennsylvania, it's hard to see what the path to 270 is. and right now, they are struggling, especially amongst

suburban women, in the suburbs of philadelphia. >> yeah, the trump campaign tells us that scott walker will be here tonight, reince priebus, both, obviously, from wisconsin. who's been out traveling with him lately? how are they doing at getting the kind of republican politician support on the trail that clinton gets all the time from the democrats? >> well, you're seeing people like rudy giuliani and you're seeing people like bobby knight, as well, who was with him today as well as yesterday. but you're also seeing some of his closest campaign advisers, like jared kirschner, as well as steven miller, his senior policy adviser. i would say on the issue of the obamacare and the affordable health care act, if you talk to senior advisers, they almost view this as a secret weapon of sorts and a closing argument. because if you go to those suburbs, if you go outside of philadelphia, go to some of these other battleground states, obamacare is incredibly unpopular, particularly as these new reports of increasing premiums come up. and so i think that is -- they're trying to showcase

perhaps a more substantiative side of donald trump as he makes his closing argument. >> katy, we're all sort of braced to see if anymore stuff breaks. do you feel like the trump campaign is still in the mode of hoping there's additional wikileaks disclosures, additional stuff from the fbi, or do you think they're comfortable with the hand they have now? >> well, i think they're happy with the hand they have now. i'm not sure if comfortable is the right word. and i'm not sure that you could say anybody knows if anything else is going to break in these next seven days. certainly, the fbi revival of that investigation came as a surprise to absolutely everybody, including house republicans, senate republicans, as well as the clinton campaign wib itself. so comfortable is not a word i would use, but i would say they're hopeful going forward, able to focus on this fbi revival and looking into the e-mails again. also focus on the premiums rising in obamacare and its unpopularity among, you know, the suburbs of philadelphia,like

kevin was saying, but also the rigged system and using the donna brazile, cnn, potentially giving questions to a cnn debate, to hillary clinton, using that as a perfect example of their rigged system, being favored for hillary clinton in favor of someone like bernie sanders. they're able to not necessarily get more folks into their tent, but mostly, make sure that republicans out there who have been unsure of donald trump, for the past 17 months, come home to the republican party and vote the ticket all the way through. they need to find those moderates that they haven't been able to get. those have been uncomfortable with trump. and if they're able to say, hey, listen, hillary clinton is somebody if she gets in office, could potentially face an indictment, they're hoping that is going to convince those that are still the outliers to come in and say, you know what, i've got to vote for donald trump. this is something that i need to do, because i can't let hillary clinton get into office. that being said, it is a very high hurdle for him to overcome.

paul ryan is not here in wisconsin today. it's a pretty notable with donald trump, at least, a pretty notable snub. john kasich, the other day, voted for john mccain, wrote him in on his ballot when he was voting in ohio. so the gulf between donald trump and some more moderate republicans or some traditional republicans, i should say, is still pretty vast, and it's something that not even disdain for hillary clinton can help bridge. >> katy tur inside the event, we'll see you in there in a second. kevin cirilli here with me, thank you both. when we come back, final words, right after this. the pursuit of healthier. it begins from the second we're born. because, healthier doesn't happen all by itself. it needs to be earned every day. using wellness to keep away illness. and believing a single life can be made better by millions of others. as a health services and innovation company optum powers modern healthcare by connecting

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possibility of election overtime. tomorrow, mark and i will both be on the road. i'm going to utah. it's going to be fun. for me here in new york and mark up in wisconsin, we say to you, sayonara. >> "hardball" with chris matthews is next. mutual destruction? let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews in washington. morning in america, this is not. with a week to go and national polls tightening, hillary clinton and donald trump are unloading on each other. the latest "washington post"/abc news poll released today shows trump at 46%, hillary clinton at 45%. trump's gained two points this last week in this poll, while clinton has lost three points. several other recent polls show clinton ahead.