you're going to be hearing about. >> the next president will not be the only decision made today. several states are voting on ballot measures. >> among the states voting to legalize rec kraeg to legalize recreational pot. >> meanwhile, some states are voting to raise the minimum rate to $12 or higher an hour. so now it's officially, tuesday november 8th. >> this election will end, but i want you to understand our work together will be just beginning. >> we have to bridge the divides in this country.

>> today we're going to win the great state of michigan and we are going to win back the white house. >> our core values are being tested in this election, but my faith in our future has never been stronger. >> we're hours away from a once in a lifetime change. we're going to have real change. >> i really believe it's the most important election of our life times because we never had a clearer choice, never. >> today is our independence day. >> wow. good morning. it's tuesday, november 8th. >> it's unbelievable. >> how are you feeling? >> i am feeling good for hillary clinton. >> really? >> i think she's closing in on this. she's closing in on this. >> what are your thoughts, willie, and we have been through this for now 18 years.

>> it feels about 180. >> march 23rd, 2015, ted cruz got into the race, so almost 20 months ago, and now here we are. i will watch florida right out of the gate. we will see how the vote turns out. if she looks like she is going to win florida, that's game, set, match. >> and i think we all agree with this, that if for some reason florida is very close, north carolina is close and they tip trump's way, a big if right now, because most of the people i talked to yesterday in florida that knows florida, they think hillary clinton will win there, but if for some reason trump wins north carolina and florida, and we will inbound for a long

night if it looks like florida or north carolina is going clinton's way, just pretend it was like one of the last seasons of "dallas." >> we could all be asleep by midnight, maybe not the concession speech, and florida and north carolina, if they both go for trump, we will inbound for a long night and i suspect we will see scrutiny for how the vote is going and even court challenges. >> he can win michigan and colorado, but if you are not winning florida or north carolina. >> he must win florida. and florida is a great example of where we are.

it will take a surge -- even the trump folks are saying, it will take the statistics and polling being overcome by populist fervor that overwhelms the saw te'tis statistics. >> yes. how fascinating it is that we are talking about the state that we should be talking about, florida. i say that because if you believe that trump's original sin was the first speech that he gave when he got into this race about mexicans, about hispanics by extension, and if you also believe, like i think everybody that knows this business as been saying, he's going to be hurt by the ground game, and if he loses florida tonight, he will lose florida for those two reasons. if he wins florida tonight, then throw all of the rules out and we're in, for, again, a wild,

wild ride. >> yeah, and as you guys have said, he has to win both florida and north carolina. if either goes the other way, i think we know the outcome here. and i think it's interesting that he did trash hispanics and attack all different people, and in florida he is still in the game, which says a lot. >> most observers in the mainstream media in manhattan and washington, d.c. are the most shocked about, and that is not only that donald trump is still in the game, but you had the entire clinton team and the entire obama team up in michigan and pennsylvania yesterday. not saying they were on defense, but they certainly were not trying to pick up georgia and arizona like they were talking about doing weeks ago.

>> the only way to run is scared. i think the clintons have learned that for a quarter century and more. the fascinating thing about today, no matter what we will be talking about it and studying it forever, and either the first female president of the united states is going to be elected and the most unconventional outsider, and far more unconventional than andrew jackson beyond what we have ever had, and i woke up thinking about abigail adams. >> of course. >> my first thought this morning. abigail! >> she wrote something, remember the ladies, and it was 96 years ago since women could vote, it has not been 100 years. if secretary clinton becomes president-elect today.

if trump does, we will be sifting through this forever. >> yes, we will. >> and david ignatius is also with us. david, the world is watching for sure this morning. >> the world is watching, too, and i have traveled in asia, latin america over the last two months, and everywhere i went, people want to talk about our election. generally they are nervous. they never thought they would hear this in america, and they worry we don't really want to be involved in our leadership role in the world and we are walking away from trade agreements that benefit them and us and they are worried it's going to be a different kind of world with russia and china until a pushback from the united states. the other thing i worry about since i think about security is what will the security in our polling places be today? are they going to be safe?

we have had reports of possible terrorists threats, and police are out in every city, and what about intimidation. we all woke up thinking, this is america's day and this is the day we vote and i hope people will be able to get to the polls and cast their votes in a safe way. >> let's take a look at some of the national polling before the case is decided. it gives clinton a six-point lead, 50% to 44%. she gets the backing of 91% of democratic voters while trump wins 86% of republicans. the gop nominee is also claiming more support from independent voters, a six-point edge over the democrat. when it comes to electoral

votes, the map shows clinton with the advantage, and it's now in the voter's hands for sure. the associated press is looking for early voting and there are positive signs for trump and clinton. in iowa, democrats are running below what brought them a five-point victory for president obama. more than two-thirds of the expected votes have been casts in north carolina where black turnout has dropped by 8.6%. some 65,000 votes. and democrats still have the edge there. and in florida, a record 6.4 million early ballots have been cast. ballots from hispanics nearly doubled to more than 976,000 this year, and the margin for democrats has shrunk from 2008 in 2012. the percentage of ballots cast

by african-americans is down 30%, while ballots from white voters rose from 63% to 66%. in ohio, ballots from african-americans count for 9%, down from 12% from 2012, and a rise in white voters. and in arizona, the republicans lead the democrats by six points. >> you got everybody telling you it means different things depending on who they are supporting. what do you see in the trends? >> in the states that will decide the election, i think the only state it matters is nevada. the only ones -- early votes can be misleading because you bank them -- >> is nevada a slam dunk for hillary clinton based on early voting? >> based on what experts say,

and -- >> his quote was trump is dead, and i think he said that about a year ago. >> the trump campaign realizes they may need to replace those electoral votes somewhere else. early votes are misleading in some ways because you don't know if they were votes you wouldn't get or not, and it's mixed. >> that's the problem. in some of the states, republicans over performed and white voters over performed but are those people who vote every election, and would they have been going to the polls anyway? are you picking up voters or are they just voting earlier? again, everybody is just going through the dark and putting the best spin on it they can. one number you can avoid is $1 million early voters in florida is hispanic, and i don't think that will split 50/50. >> and if you look at miami-dade

and broward county, they are up where it trends toward democrat. if you are looking for a sign for hillary there. mika just showed that african-american vote something down in north carolina. we'll talk this morning, but it's time for the voters to decide. >> the wildcard, pennsylvania and michigan, two states hillary should win easily and they have tightened up, and of course, drama is added to it by the fact that neither of those states have early voting. >> and one of the challenges in early voting is it moved so far from where it was 30 years ago. >> can we stop there for one second, steve? >> i got one sentence out, how about that? >> i will let you finish. all we hear is negative news how

this has been the election election ever and the worst candidates and the worst coverage, and everybody is -- >> everybody is hated. >> people screaming at each other, and my 8-year-old, and somebody else told me this who had young kids, and the kids are engaged in it. everybody seems to be engaged in it. early voting is remarkable. more early votes in florida this year than voted in the entire 2000 in florida. that's good news for democracy. >> that's great news for democracy, and what we want to do is get people to vote. >> hearing from both of my daughters, and they are both active on campus hearing about the election totally clued in. early this morning, hillary clinton returned home to new

york around 3:20 a.m., and just after midnight she capped her final day in raleigh, north carolina, where donald trump had been hours earlier. lady gaga and john pawn srobon p the crowd. >> tomorrow night this election will end, but i want you to understand our work together will be just beginning. none of us want to wake up wednesday morning and wish we had done more. and here is from today, when your kids and grandkids ask what you did in 2016 when everything was on the line, you will be able to say you voted for a stronger, fairer better america. >> you know, jon meacham, mika

and i by chance ran into hillary, bill, chelsea, back in new hampshire. >> right. >> and of course, a little awkward because we're kind of tough on the clintons then as well as now, and just like we have been tough on trump as well as now. but you take hillary clinton there where she was just beaten terribly by bernie sanders, and then look at hillary clinton last night, and you just -- you look at all that they have been through, and all that trump's been through, and i am sorry, regardless of whether you think donald trump is a fascist, or hillary clinton should be in jail, and you have to look at these two people and look at what they have been through, how gutting it has been, and they

are both on their feet. >> the modern classic, it's about the withering process, and you can endure this and the presidency. and she's obviously feeling confident and one of the wonderful things about tabloids like this, you also realize we are in for another chapter of shakespeare. we never had a former president living in the white house with the current president. if i were tim kaine, that might be the worst job in america coming up. >> jon meacham, let me put the tom brokaw warning out there yet, we will let people vote first before riding the next chapter in the story. what, does she have an 80% chance of winning, 85% chance of winning and you never know what is going to happen, but if

hillary clinton wins it will be extraordinary, just like if donald trump wins it will be extraordinary. the candidates seem to be finishing very strong, both of them physically, and r rhetorical rhetorical rhetorically, and you report across the world, is our process too long, and do we need to be more like britain and shorten it up? >> please say yes. >> and it has been exhausting but as an observer and journalist, it has been fascinating. i think we would be better off with a shorter campaign season. there is for everybody now a sense of egg jexhaustion. if hillary clinton wins today, she will be somebody that picked herself off the floor, and the time she had pneumonia and was

seen stumbling into her check after the release of the comey letter, and we saw the measure of somebody's character. and donald trump, i still can't erase the image of him sweeping through a field of supremely confident republican rivals and taking them down one after another. i didn't always admire the way he did it, but an extraordinary performance by somebody who had phreolitical steulz. >> it was truly remarkable, and donald trump is the republican nominee with any chance of win something nothing short of remarkable, and it should teach us something about what is going on out there, and we should continue to cover that story in the days and months to come. >> i want to underline that to come. jon meacham, it's extraordinary, a guy that was never in politics before, never in politics before -- >> a laughingstock among the

elites. >> mocked and ridiculed by the elites from day one, and given no chance to win the republican nomination, and crushed -- clinton people were talking about watching him crush marco rubio and the other candidates, and just sitting there mesmerized thinking, how is he doing this? his skill -- >> how could this happen? >> you could say his skills, he should use them for better causes depending on what you think of his campaign, and hillary clinton's most extraordinary trait is a perseverance unlike anybody i have ever seen in american politics, and unlike anybody i have ever read about in history, and i love history. go back to 1980 when they lost

that first tkpwaoub tphau toerl campaign. donald trump, he is just the opposite. just exploded out of nowhere, and the moment of this campaign is when it was halperin talked about being at the iowa state fair and everybody around hillary clinton's campaign and the trump helicopter coming over, and it had trump on the side and everybody from hillary to the secret service to the throngs of the press, and they looked up and said, trump, and it's the perfect metaphor where this guy just exploded on the scene. >> he has more votes than george w. bush and more votes than anybody in history, and the party has got to deal with that. we will study this campaign

forever. we never had the populist figure take over the major party apparatus in this way. you are exactly right, whoever wins has got to deal not only with the anger, which is self-evident, but this persistent paranoia, a sense that the system, to quote trump, is rigged. and there's a broader sense the economy and the culture is a raid against ordinary people. and whoever becomes president of the united states has got to deal with a world in which fewer than 1 in 5 americans trust the federal government, and that's an incredibly important figure. it has to be confronted, and that's the task ahead. >> still ahead on "morning joe," we will look at that in the days and months to come, and donald trump jr. will be here on the

set, and senator al franken joins the conversation. up next we go live to north carolina and new hampshire, and tomorrow it's a big day. we have a special edition of "morning joe" live from historic studio 8h here at 30 rock. and polls are opening in some states already, and we have rain out there that will cause you travel trouble. san antonio got soaked overnight and it's improving, and across missouri we are dealing with rain. tphaepb, just some showers, and mississippi has some rain and across missouri we are dealing with rain. after a cold morning in the northeast and mid atlanta, it's going to warm up for a beautiful

day and we are dealing with temperatures above average in the northern plains and in the west, and if we have travel it will be in the lone star state, and overall i have to give this election day forecast a 9 out of 10 because it's so unusually warm. you are watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. changes to make things right. first, all customers who have been impacted will be fully refunded. second, a confirmation will be sent when new personal or small business checking, savings or credit card accounts are opened. third, we've eliminated product sales goals for our retail bankers to ensure your interests are put first. we're taking action. we're renewing our commitment to you.

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look at this mask! look at this mask! oh, wow. nice head of hair, i will say that. >> all right, 27 past the hour. let's look at the look in the two key battleground states. we have tammy leitner, and

morgan radford. tammy, polls open there this morning and how is it looking? >> reporter: well they opened about 30 minutes ago here, and as you can see, there's already a lot of people here ready to vote. they are expecting 7,000 people at this location here today, and if you can pan over here to the right, you can see there's a table with people registering to vote today. new hampshire is only one of seven states you can sign up on the day of to register and vote that same day. there is no early voting, and new hampshire voters typically decide late in the game, which is why both candidates could make such a push, and trump was here last night and obama was here for clinton on sunday. and there are only four electoral points, and they are

extremely important and this state will play an important part in this election. back to you, mika. >> let's turn to morgan in north carolina. >> reporter: today is today and now is the time. these polls are opening right now at 6:30, so you are staring at some of the first voters about to go in and cast their ballots. they are aware their vote could you tell us now more than ever. this is the largest county in all of north carolina, and it's a blue dot in a sea of red, and what you are see something a microcauseam. the republicans are attempting to reach older white areas who live in the more rural parts of the state and i want to bring in somebody who has been waiting since 5:30 to cast her ballot.

what do you think of all the attention north carolina has been? >> i can't believe it. it's just everywhere, and it's amazing. >> reporter: how are you feeling about the election now? >> i am pumped up and ready to vote. >> reporter: as you know the candidates are locked in a dead heat, and 44% and 44%, and we will have our eye on this all day, guys. >> all right, morgan radford, thank you so much. joining us now, tom bevin. >> how real clear is it? >> do you have clarity? >> as you have been talking about, north carolina and florida and new hampshire is a tossup. what is interesting, i went back and looked at 2012 and the national polls were tighter, and we had three polls tied, and three had obama head and three had romney up.

there's a lot of agreement that clinton has a two or three-point ahead nationally but not in the states. and the polls don't -- >> one says trump is dead. >> yeah, nevada is a place that has been wrong before. >> yeah, wrong with harry reid's race, and almost everybody thought harry reid had that state lost, and if you are a trump supporter and you think it's over, just hold on, and if you are a clinton supporter and think you have got this in the bag, just hold on because we remember in 2000, and as nate silver always brings up, george

bush was up and al gore won the popular vote. this could be tight, or it could be a landslide for hillary. >> right, there's a range of outcomes. trump needs things to fall his way. if he gets that, he could still pull this off. if he doesn't, if he falls short in one of the states, it will be game over for him. and if hillary has a good night, she could end up in the 300s in the electoral college. >> there's a lot of focus on the state of michigan, and there is a lot of resources that was thrown there, and what is the real state of the state of michigan right now? >> i think hillary has a lead there, but, again, it's a state that doesn't have early voting and does not have a huge latino population, and i spoke to somebody in the trump campaign,

and they think they have a chance better in michigan than in pennsylvania. and it's a state where hillary is under performing where obama was four years ago, and i think both campaigns are focused there. >> i was with trump in ten states and there was more optimism over the weekend among his supporters than yesterday. >> what was the attitude last night? >> i know you were reporting for bloomberg and -- >> new hampshire and grand rapid, and i was in grand rapids five hours ago. >> what is their attitude? >> they need a break or two here, and it's not in the data as much as it is in the feeling that you go back it again and again, 75% of the country wants change and that's what trump wants is the notion of draining the swamp. he has fervent supporters.

>> he does. >> and hillary clinton has done a good job from keeping him from expanding the people that support him. >> it's difficult today to get him to the 46% in the right number of states to get over the top. let's see how florida and north carolina gets. i think he could survive a loss in harry reid's backyard and still make up the electoral votes. it's more likely she will win this at a kind of margin, but if you are a trump or clinton supporter, don't think it's over. >> again, a lot of margin of error, and even colorado, which i will tell you makes no sense to me. if i had to bet my house on it, i would bet hillary clinton wins colorado, and the trump people believed for month, and they have been saying colorado over and over again. you look at the early voting in

colorado and it seems to bolster the fact they are doing well out there, but they think they have a chance there and in michigan and a chance in pennsylvania. long shots in all of them. >> just a couple really interesting things. go back to the poll in tka des moines. the -- >> that's a state that democrats have won five out of the last six elections and trump is up seven in the des moines register. >> we have not talked about senate races, and chuck grassly is going to win big and that helps trump. >> and paul ryan came out and said who he voted for every step of the way, and we will get to that coming up. we talked about michigan which was a state trump is really fighting for. and here he is last night mocking hillary clinton's star-studded support. >> i thought new hampshire was going to be my last speech and i

heard that crooked hillary clinton was coming to michigan, and i said let's follow it up! let's follow it up! if we win michigan, we will win this historic election, and then we truly will be able to do all of the things we want to do. >> hillary can't fill a room. look, this is called filling a stadium. i have no guitar and no piano, right? i mean, she gets jay-z and beyonce the other night, and tonight she has bruce springsteen. they come in and listen to the musician -- which i think is demeaning -- it's actually demeaning to the political process. >> you know, jon meacham, you can never really tell who is going to connect where, and why they are going to connect the way they are, and here you have a billionaire that has not been focused on the disadvantaged his

entire life, and yet he's appealing in michigan in a way that a mitt romney or a john mccain or a george w. bush never did. it's -- >> his connection -- >> american politics is absolutely fascinating. one of the greatest presidents for working class people, fdr, and lived one of the most privilege lives ever, and -- i am not comparing fdr and trump, but i think you may have got the term archie bunker billionaire early on, somebody did, and people can sort of sense this guy is from queens, he's not from the upper east side and they connect on some basic level politically. >> yeah, i mean, part of the trump phenomena, right, is now the permanent -- seemingly permanent intersection of the celebrity culture and the

political culture. we have gone from richard nixon saying sock it to me, and now the guy on tv for 14 seasons as the republican nominee. as the day goes on, and if secretary clinton's numbers start to roll up, it will be a huge tendency for people to talk about this and will want to put trump in a oddity box or basket of deplorables, or whatever you want to call it. the cares and concerns that he has brought out and has led -- depending on what you look at, 70% or more willing to trust him with authority, it's a phenomena and it's going to shape the way we live. if people dismiss trump's voters and why they did it, and they are going to be making a serious

mistake. >> david ignatius, they will have missed the revolution of 2016. the quiet -- >> well, a very noisy revolution, it's donald trump and bernie sanders, and you can draw a straight line from that to brexit to what is happening in germany to what is happening across all western democracies right now. the economic establishment doesn't get it, is stacked up against them, and is in it to make the rich richer and the poor poorer and the middle class more despawnedent year after year. >> you stated perfectly in the way in which we should think about the real challenge for whoever wins. there's a deep feeling around the world that this global capitalist economy which created such wealth, new technology that we all love to use, and it

simply is not fair enough, too many people feel left out and i think for the next president coming, i know clinton's people feel this, because they told me. their first job, whatever foreign policy challenges, they look at this economy and figure out ways to get it going and figure out ways to district its fruits better so people don't feel left out and you hear the same thing if you travelled in britain, france, across europe, and when i was in australia and parts of asia recently, the exact same message, and people want to be on the ride with the economy but want a fair chair. >> thank you both. tom bevin, thank you as well. still ahead on "morning joe" -- >> tomorrow is the day that will impact you for years to come,

and that's not hyperbole. for you, family, friends, tomorrow will affect and determine how we treat people in terms of their health or education or physical safety. our nation's very place in the world. there has never been a more important tomorrow in modern electoral history in the modern states of america and that's a fact. >> that was joe biden's closing pitch last night, and we will read from mike barnicle's piece saying there are fewer people you would rather have on the mound. ♪ ♪ ♪ is it a force of nature?

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he wears his army he hat, walks aroundpliments. with his army shirt looking all nice. and then people just say, "thank you for serving our country" and i'm like, that's my dad. male vo: no one deserves a warmer welcome home. that's why we're hiring 10,000 members of the military community. i'm very proud of him. male vo: welcome to new beginnings. comcast. nothing is impossible in this country. this country never bends, it

never bows, and we own the finish line in the 21st century and we need leadership to do that, so go out and vote, your destiny depends on it. >> 46 past the hour. joining us now, veteran columnist and msnbc contributor, mike barnicle, and mike you write this in the "daily beast" about joe biden. you say this, the vice president of the united states returned home to campaign. on the stage, needing no notes, the thoughts filling the hall with the sense of optimism about the future and a ton of scorn for the scorched earth landscape of the present political campaign, joe biden was the closer. coming out of the bullpen throwing fastballs at a time

when the public turned in disdiscuss from the spit balls or curves, and the electorate sure did enjoy it, and watching joe biden, smalling and laughing and bearing his sole is like watching madison bumgardner on the mound. it's a pure politician in the business for all the right reasons, engaging, teasing, pulling the crowd along for causes he believes in, and standing for people he feels have been forgotten or ignored by both political parties. and that, in part, mike, is just the story of not just the people voting for hillary clinton, but those supporting donald trump or those who supported bernie sanders. >> mika, you get the sense from what you have been talking about for the last segment, that joe biden symbolizes one of the

biggest campaigns and it's what happens to both political parties after today and does it happen that the political party joe biden symbolizes, does the republican party become a party of cultural and economic grievances and that's going to be a huge story going forward. god love joe biden. he symbolizes so much of what the party used to be. >> and joe biden even said it himself, when he was on our show, that the democratic party has left a lot of white working class voters behind. >> absolutely. >> you can't even say that without being attacked as -- i guess biden was not attacked, but it's a reality. and we constantly see the ebb and flow throughout history. and by 1966, the republican party was getting five to 10%,

and it has not changed since. and i live in a state in connecticut that went republican and i think every election from 1972 to 1988, pennsylvania went republican from 1972 to 1988, and new hampshire, i think, the same. or maine did. there's always these ebbs and flow. it's not that way, is it? we learn time and time again. >> no, that's absolutely right. mike barnicle's piece was beautiful and joe biden is a wonderful man. we hear so much about the cleavage in the republican party and you talked about what we might call the donald trump wing and the paul ryan wing, and last summer the democratic party

passed a platform that was not a moderate platform and it was the most progressive platform they have ever seen and there are a lot of people in the party that will be pleased with a hillary clinton if she were elected and did not address the needs. >> do you have what if my son, who i loved so much, had not passed away, did you pick up any of that? >> yeah, and all the "what ifs" are unanswerable. i asked him about the sense of melon collie, and he said, sure, personal reasons were such that he chose not to run.

he thinks he would be looking at 55 or 60% of the vote had he run. >> yeah, he is thinking it could have been me. >> the markets are rallying, and they are rallying because they think hillary clinton is going to win. this has been really good news for the clinton campaign. you have to look positively at it as well. you look at the numbers, and they are shooting up and we know the betting markets are always right, just like they were right with marco rubio and brexit. >> here we go. >> this is a happy day, right? >> well, brexit, rubio -- anybody, go ahead. >> fair enough. fair enough. maybe tomorrow when the predecktion markets are right, we will have a discussion. but that's not the point i want

to make, i have not seen a market where they look at what happens, and if the unlikely happens and trump wins you will see a market crash of historic proportions, i think. >> why is 7 as a practical matter? what do they think will happen if donald trump is president? >> they think he is essentially -- two levels. one, they think he's the unsteady hand at the trigger and white house making decisions and not knowing what he is talking about, and his economic policy, if you want to call it that involves the massive tax cuts that would blow up the budget deficit and create economic havoc. they are terrified of him. >> the tax cuts are not the reason. it's the trade. it's what he thinks about trade and protectionism. it's what he thinks about global financial markets. >> and it's the fact that he's just not a steady hand on the

till. they have no idea what he's going to do and it scares the hell out of them. >> very fair. but if you are a working class voter in middle america and you are trying to -- i am not trying to speak for everybody, but if you are going to vote this morning and you hear that the financial markets are going to protest donald trump's victory and your wages have gone down in real terms since 1987, that actually probably makes you think i might want to vote for this guy? >> i think you would run to the polls as quickly as possible and vote for trump. in many cases if there is that anger and resentment, and he knows that, and that has been true through history, william jennings brian welcomed the hatred of the wall street elites and that brought him close to the presidency. >> i follow you on twitter, and i retweet you many times a day. do you have a favorite moment

over the past 50 years, an election day moment, just historically that you find really compelling and indicative of what elections are about in america? >> well, i always think of the classic election, you know, maybe just because of the times we are living in, 1960 kennedy versus nixon, and it went on so long and it was so close and there were two guys who were friends before and jack kennedy said about nixon it's inevitable you get to hate the guy you are running against, and yet at the same time nixon goes through the election and feels it was stolen from him, which he said in private until the end of his life, and yet on the day after the election nixon conceded and went down to see kennedy and kennedy said, well, i guess we don't know who won the election do, we? and nixon said, well, eventually you did.

they resumed their friendship at least to some extent and shook hands on inaugural day. it was never an issue. >> michael, thank you very much. steve rat inner, thank you as well. coming up, rwhat bob costa learned about clinton and trump supporters. "morning joe" is coming right back.

hillary clinton: i'm hillary clinton and i approve this message. vo: in times of crisis america depends on steady leadership. donald trump: "knock the crap out of them, would you? seriously..."vo: clear thinking... donald trump: "i know more about isis than the generals do, believe me."

vo: and calm judgment. donald trump: "and you can tell them to go fu_k themselves." vo: because all it takes is one wrong move. donald trump audio only: "i would bomb the sh_t out of them." vo: just one. so wi got a job!ews? i'll be programming at ge. oh i got a job too, at zazzies. (friends gasp) the app where you put fruit hats on animals? i love that! guys, i'll be writing code that helps machines communicate. (interrupting) i just zazzied you. (phone vibrates) look at it! (friends giggle) i can do dogs, hamsters, guinea pigs... you name it. i'm going to transform the way the world works. (proudly) i programmed that hat. and i can do casaba melons. i'll be helping turbines power cities. i put a turbine on a cat. (friends ooh and ahh) i can make hospitals run more efficiently... this isn't a competition! i wanted to know where i did my ancestrydna. the most shocking result was that i'm 26% native american. i had no idea. it's opened up a whole new world for me.

♪

if we don't win i will consider this the single greatest waste of time and energy -- wow, do you need energy of this. the single greatest waste of

time, money and energy. i will have spent over a million dollars. >> think about how throughout our history, generations of americans just like us have come together to meet the tests of their time. it started right here in philadelphia. when representatives from 13 unruly colonies came together to launch the greatest experiment the world has ever seen. our parents and grandparents defended that democracy. we face the test of our time. what will we vote for, not just against? >> welcome back to "morning joe." it's tuesday, november 8th. it's election day. still with us, we have veteran

columnist and msnbc contributor, mike barnicle and mr. halperin, and we have a "times" reporter, and political reporter for the "washington post" and msnbc political analyst, robert costa, and msnbc political contributor and editor at the fix, chris saw liza is with us as well. the voting has begun. >> bellwether. >> how does that look this morning. every time i hear about that, let's see, dixville notch, and -- kasich won. every time i see that i am reminded, of course, of one of the great political books of

all-time. and i think about the making of the president 1960, and we see people already standing in line. they begun to vote in the villages of new hampshire at midnight as they always do, seven and a half hours before the candidate rose, and by the time he left his hotel, hundreds had already voted. it was certain at this hour the vote was overwhelmingly republican. on election day, america is republican until 5:00 or 6:00 in the evening and it's in the last few hours the working people and their families vote on

resent trump for saying it would be a waste of time. to be able to go to the country and make your pitch as to why you ought to be the president of the united states. >> we could have a candidate like never seen, and either way today is historic. >> and i think donald trump changed his tune just a bit

talking about how it was worth it even though he said his family gets slammed really hard, but you were with the campaign last night. how were they feeling? any sense of melancholy or what was their attitude? >> covered two events, one in new hampshire and one in michigan. every candidate i ever covered in both parties when they win the new hampshire primary, and it's almost an emotional moment and john mccain stands out in particular, and he did suggest it was a great experience to run even if he did not win, and that's not normally what he says. hillary clinton has been the favorite and has been the favorite and the last two weeks, he has gotten closer and without luck or something unexpected he probably will not get close enough to win and they recognize

the two states the republican and the top people are focused on, florida and north carolina and all the work they put in and all the expectations they tried to build up and in confidence they tried to project could dissipate by 11:00 tonight if those states go for hillary clinton. >> we will be watching early, we will watch florida and north carolina, and if one of the two go to hillary clinton, game over, and if trump wins both of those -- >> game on. >> we're in for a long night. >> for sure. i never have seen in any election i have covered or witnesses in my life, people more nervous or up tight. i have never seen more friendships frayed. it has been a tough run. we are all guilty. >> so many people coming up to me, democrats coming up and saying tell me it's going to be okay. i drop my kids off at school,

and it's going to be okay? and this is teddy white wrote a book "america in such of itself," and this one would be "america on edge." >> i think most of us when we go to dinner parties you want to avoid crowds of people, because they will ask you what do you know and who is win stphg i know there are millions tuning in, and i have a couple people saying i can't handle the anxiety watching donald trump or hillary clinton winning the state, and many people want to wake up to the news and put it away. for the vast majority of american will be glued to the tv and "new york times" hopefully, and as we write the story and record the history, and i think it's incredible, and as a woman

of color i think that i think about how we got to the idea that we -- all these people could cast their ballots and how many people stood in line and died for the right for african-americans and for women to be able to vote. it's an incredible moment and day. >> it really is. yesterday evening hillary clinton held her biggest rally to date outside independence hall in philadelphia. according to the campaign, there were 33,000 people in the audience last night. bruce springsteen kicked off the event and performed for the crowd, and chelsea clinton and bill clinton and first lady, michelle obama all spoke as well. >> and john pawau jon bon jovi republican. he said he was voting for hillary clinton. >> i felt i knew everything about him, but i did not know he was a republican.

>> yeah, somebody with a guitar is a republican? >> he's been out there on the trail. >> that was so beautiful what you said. this is such a great example of what america is. election day, i got up and driving in and looking at all the people, and this is not a game, and this is voting for what affects their families and jobs, and i thank you for articulating that so well. >> and also, it's remarkable how we got to where we got, and to think that we could have a black man as president followed by -- >> handing off the baton. >> handing off, and i am not saying -- trump supporters said somehow this is less legitimate if that doesn't happen, but the possibility of that is that a pretty remarkable thing.

>> it could be really remarkable to have a black man and then be followed up by a woman. i should say as somebody who is a millennial and somebody who talked to people, trump supporters, they talk about the "apprentice", and i don't say that ingest, and he was born out of the culture and entertainment that america has become. he invested all of these other people he thought would be traditional politicians. i think some young people are going to say it is historical for donald trump to be elected because his first job would be president of the united states. >> if you go out in the country, you realize one thing very quickly talking to people, the

country isn't fragile. we are not fragile. >> no, we are not. amen. we will survive. >> the institutions that failed us are fragile and not working but the country is not fragile. >> american democracy is not fragile. >> no. >> i have spent most of my adult life hearing people say that american democracy was on the cusp of some cataclysmic event, and during the impeachment everybody went to the floor, we must impeach him or else, and we must not impeach him or else, and the recount, the supreme court will never be the same, and it's just not true. republicans said democracy was cheapened by eight years of bill clinton and democrats said it about george b. bush, and we are not fragile.

we will survive regardless. and donald trump made a stop yesterday, and he held rallies in five cities and states that electoral votes are key. and pennsylvania, new hampshire, and michigan, and throughout the day he focused on his opponent, predicted victory, and looked back at how he got here. >> if they win the american people lose big league. this is it, folks. we will never have another opportunity. not in four years or eight years, it will be over with the supreme court justices and people pouring into our country. this is it. this is it. good luck. get out there. i did my thing. i mean, i worked. you are tired of a government that works only for wall street and the special interests.

you are tired of the reckless foreign policy. the crazy wars that are never won. hillary is the face of failure. she's the face of failure, and she is the face of failed foreign policy. real change begins. she is indeed the face of failure. this is not the sound of a second place finisher. that i can tell you. remember i entered and we had 17 governors and senators, and you know, the old story. one by one, right, altogether, one by one by one, and now we have one flawed candidate to beat. >> willie, the desk from the new jersey rock star desk, and bon jovi was reading a letter, and i

both you and i read an article, and it said that he was saying that himself, bon jovi said -- quote, he was reading a letter from a republican. >> and we will correct that. sorry about that, jon. >> order is restored to the universe. >> bob costa, you spent so much time around the trump campaign and you watched the trajectory what looked like a publicity stunt to now donald trump on the front page of every newspaper in the united states and around the world as the nominee on the doorstep of the white house. what do you pick up from this campaign and how are they generally feeling about his chances? >> at 9:00 or 10:00, nobody was around and i was looking back at my conversations with trump and the first one i had with trump was july of 2013, and he was

talking then about running for president and nobody believed him. when u see trump's comments back then, three years ago, more than three years ago, he's talking about trade and being an outsider but he did not have an ideology, and i think what we have seen in this campaign is a candidate that came in as an outsider, and here today he found an ideology and movement and the populism and nationalism, and at times he doesn't fully see how he stoked that and that movement may last and have an impact on the republican party for years to come even if he fades away. >> and in pennsylvania, tell us what you found? >> on so many lawns, especially -- i know lawn signs are antidotal, i know, and so

many trump signs, and then it moves away as you go into philadelphia and the suburbs there, and it's a state that is truly split. but there's a lot of angst. they see in trump change, but the change is too radical, and moderate republicans are intrigued and they say i am not for secretary clinton, and there seems to be too much and their lives are going okay and they don't want that. house speaker ryan spent the day out on the campaign trail. and ryan praised donald trump's call for a special session to repeal and replace obamacare. ryan also stressed the need of unity among republicans noting that he casts his ballot for -- and he said it, trump. >> trump said he wants a special session to repeal and replace

obamacare. let me tell you something, as speaker of the house, not only yes, but heck yes, we're ready, we're willing and we have a plan to do that, too! you know what i did two weeks ago tomorrow? i walked into the city hall and cast my early vote, and i voted trump, pence, johnson, some guy named ryan and every other republican on the ticket and that is actually what each and every one of us need to do. this is what we need to do. republicans, we need to come home. we need to unify and we need to go vote. >> joe, in the "washington post," the worthless sacrifice for trump and button line is he will have done all of this for nothing and it's something we talked about every step of the way. what does he get out of this? >> it's a balancing act. it really has been. but the thing is, if you are going to pick a side, pick a

side. paul ryan picked a side last night. a lot of people were saying that he was going to move away from trump ten days out, and he picked a side. he has ron johnson and other republicans that actually need him to send that signal if he is going to be speaker of the house. all the world is a stage, and he either needs to be all in or all out and last night he decided, chris aliza, he decided to go all in. this decision as a republican, i don't fault the never trumpers, and i don't fault the trumpers, but if you are speaker of the house you do have to take a stand and he finally took a strong stand last night. >> i don't think you can get re-elected as speaker of the house even if you are paul ryan, which i think is the one guy that can get the majority of the republicans behind him but i don't think you can get speaker if you are not for the nominee. it's much more easily explained

to say, look, donald trump, i made clear was not my guy from the start or at the end, but if you look at the other option and the look at the supreme court or health care or trade, you know, all of those things that that's why he is for trump, but i do think that paul ryan, if donald trump loses tonight, i do think that paul ryan quickly tries to move back into the center of the party, and sort of rest control, as nicely as possible, and it winds upcoming to a little rest nicely, and trump has seized control of the party in a way that paul ryan, jeb bush, mitch mcconnell never succumbiaw comi. a narrow loss, problematic. a big loss, she gets 300

electoral votes, it makes it easier to say we did this and now we are not going to do it anymore. >> on the one side of that, mika s. the one thing paul ryan could not afford, if it's a blowout, paul ryan could have afforded to take a step back, but a close loss with paul ryan being lukewarm for the republican nominee, everybody in congress would be blaming him for hillary clinton's presidency. >> in some ways he's in a position that is so hard and difficult, and he can't step away from the nominee because he has all the down ballot races he needs to go to and can't aus straw size donald trump's supporters, and so yes, if donald trump loses badly he can say, this is now our party and we are going to take it back from you, and you lost so terribly, you don't have the resonance you thought you had.

it's going to be tough because the republican party is going to have to make this argument that we can still be a party of the future, and donald trump has done so much to offend so many different parts of the country that the republican party is going to have a hard time rebuilding, even if he loses decisively. even though paul ryan is coming out strong, you had republicans wavering back and forth on donald trump, and you had the sex tapes, we can't do that, and that was a week ago and we are back with donald trump. it's a problematic thing for republicans because they just feel like they have offended so many people. >> a lot of the polls already open. let's go to senior white house correspondent, chris jansing. where else, back home in cleveland, ohio. and kerry sanders joining us in florida. chris, what does it looks like in the polling place? >> reporter: for the first time we are seeing a line back here. this is what hillary clinton

needs, willie, if she is going to have a chance here. overall early voting in ohio is up. we just heard from the secretary of state late yesterday, and that's the good news overall, and the bad news for hillary clinton is that early vote something way down in cuyahoga county, and it's down 22% in cleveland alone, and there's a week less, and they cut early voting by a week, and having said that and she knows and the folks on the ground knows that's where they needed to build up a lead and that's going to be crucial today as they look at the numbers. friday she brought in beyonce and jay-z, and on sunday she did an event with lebron james, and he's truly the king here in cleveland. they also feel like they have a superior ground game walking in, and they have a democratic sample ballot they are sending out. having said that, talking to the people on the ground on both sides, i think they feel it

favors donald trump, that trend is toward him. and one more thing listening to your conversations, and i realize i have been on the road almost 500 days more or less since the start of this since i was covering jeb bush in the beginning, and the reseulens of the american people is remarkable, and i am moved by the ones that voluntary here, and they don't get paid for it and they want to be part of the process and believe in it. whatever happens here in my home state of ohio, i walk away feeling like it's all going to be okay. >> and chris, thank you so much. let's go to kerry sanders now in florida. kerry, the early vote exploding among latino voters, twice as much as in 2012, and big voting numbers around miami-dade and broward county. >> 49% of registered voters in

the state already voted. while we may see a few lines this morning because the polls just opened, we will not see a lot of lines across the state, because remember, about 76, maybe 80% of registered voters will vote, so with more than half of the registered voters already voted, we have 20% showing up, and it's from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m., and the real focus will be on the interstate four quarter, and that's from tampa to the east coast to daytona beach. it's about 132 miles long. the reason there's so much focus along the population in this area, to the north of the state they have what they used to call dixie kratz, and then to the south a more liberal vote. the tampa television market and the orlando television market we

have a 50/50 split, so people are watching this area closely and mostly they are watching hillsboro county, which is where i am, because the last 19 of 20 elections resulted in this community picking the winner, and here's an ad that is running. folks say if she gets elected i am moving to canada, and if he wins, i am moving to canada. and here's a real estate agency, moving to canada? let me sell your house. >> that's a business mind. thank you all. coming up, one of donald trump's fiercest supporters. his son, donald trump, jr., joins the table, and that's straight ahead on "morning joe." >> i have been reading about all of these surrogates going around for hillary clinton, but i had

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joining us now, donald trump, jr., and also joining the table from the "washington post," eugene robinson. donald trump, jr., glad to have you on the set and what your feelings are today? >> it has been incredible. it's so up in the air, and every minute changes, the emotional roller coaster is incredible. >> how much more intense was it than you expected a year ago? >> you can't even put a number on it. you knew it was going to be brutal. again, we are not naive to that, but how rough and intense, and that emotion, every five minutes, here's something new

and that changes your opinion. >> people have been through it and they say nobody can ever know what it's like? >> you truly can't. i thought business was tough and road shows, but -- it's unlike anything, but it has been an incredible experience. to go around the country and see people, and you watch their american dream shipped abroad, and they are suffering, and you get -- it's so easy to be glib in this life, and when you are as blessed as we have been, certainly it changes you. >> how did it change your view? the view of yourself? >> in terms of the country, and to be able to have that emotional connection with people. i have had grown men and women coming up to me in tears, and just under represented and sick of false promise after false promise from their politicians

and i think it's what about, change, and it's a conservative guy, but it's bipartisan. >> can you talk about that, and how bernie supporters in some way share some similarities with your father's supporters, and can you talk to us about the hurt that people are feeling, and just forget about the politics, just the economics of an economy that left them behind? >> yeah, and really a political class that left them behind. you see it whether the republicans controlling the house in the senate, and they are back home and beating their chest of what they are going to do and represent their people, and they fold each time and get steam rolled, and i see a hope in these peoples' eyes that somebody will speak for them and somebody will give that forgotten man and woman a voice again, and the brash billionaire from new york is that, and i think bernie was that for the liberal side, and he was cheated out of a system that was set up

against him, and that's why there's a real element to this rigged system. we see it in the e-mails. it's not a fair fight. my father is willing to do this, again, not being naive and knowing what he was get into, but he didn't need this job and he didn't have to do it and he wants to do it to make sure americans have the same opportunity to have the american dream we were blessed to live and my father was blessed to live and i think it's an amazing thing. >> in your heart of hearts on june 16th, 2015, when your dad came down the escalator, now maybe you can tell us, did you believe you would be here today on election day this close to the white house? >> you can never say you really believed, and at the same time i learned not to bet guest my father. >> even your dad was shocked, and i think he may have sold you gene, and at one point he told

me, can you believe this? >> he always had good instincts and he under stands the underlying currents of emotion and has always been good at that, and he always has an understanding of how that works. again, you can never say, yeah, you would be laughed off the stage. >> and we heard reports that the election hurt your family name and business is down and how down is business and how much of a challenge is that, moving forward if your father does not win, how much challenge is that? >> honestly, it has not affected us much, if at all, really. what my father said from day one in the process, none of that really matters. this is so much bigger, and this is such a more important thing for him as an american, as a patriot, and it's so much

bigger. >> if he didn't win, what does he do? >> largely to what we were doing what we were doing, and hopefully he created enough of a movement to truly represent their people, to -- you know, people are watching out for the corruption, for the pay to play, and for so much of the things we have seen just thrown in our face, that we all probably knew it was going on, but we sort of brushed it aside because there was not hard evidence. there's times i watch and i feel like i am reading a book or watching a movie about banana republic but it's america and happening under our noses. >> gene brought up earlier -- >> it was mike. >> your dad said if he loses this was a big waste of time and money? >> there's an element that is

put into this, and we want to change this, and a candidate with the other side, with the other track record, all the things we are reading about, if we elect that person and say it's okay, i think it sends a terrible message to our children and to the political class that, hey, as long as you get to that elite status you can do these things and there's no accountability and that's what this election has been about, it has been about that accountability. there's a different standard, and regardless of what happens with the e-mail situation, and i don't think anybody watching in this room or watching, nobody here could do what she did, and we would all be in jail and everybody knows it. we want to shed light there should not be a double standard once they achieved a certain level. >> within the campaign your father's travel schedule

attempted to broaden the path, and what do you think your most likely path is for victory tonight? >> there's a lot of paths and a lot of things in play, and my father has been going to the blue states because you have to be the president for all people, and you can't be the president for the select group of people you want to indicator to, and that's how it has worked and it's a failed system, and i was in michigan, and in new mexico the other day, and colorado, some of the purple states and we are spending a lot of times in those areas, and the sentiment i am getting from people on the ground, and i don't just mean where people are showing up to hear me speak, i mean at the gas station where nobody knows we are going to be there, and they come up and say you are doing great, keep it up. i am seeing that from african-americans and the hispanic --

>> are you really -- >> yeah, and some of the people will come up and say you guys are doing a good job, sort of in a whisper. there are people loud and vocal, but there are people in the box, saying we are not supposed to for whatever reason, because our party has been owned -- it doesn't work but they have come up to me and said that, and it's amazing to see. >> part of the rigged system your father talked about has included the polls. the polling places could be rigged. could you say here right now if hillary clinton a clear-cut winner in the electoral college your father will concede the election in his speech tonight? >> of course, and we just want a fair fight. they have admitted we are bussing people in from other

areas, and a few thousand votes can make a difference. all we want is a fair fight. that's all we want. everybody has a chance to have their voice be heard and not manipulated. >> so he will concede tonight? >> if it's fair, and there's not obvious stuff out there, yes. >> it's been amazing and it has been good. look forward to seeing my kids. >> i bet. >> you have five, right? >> yeah, five. coming up, inside the single most important county for the country, and how miami-dade can make a difference. you are watching "morning joe" on this election day. ♪ before it became a medicine,

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42 past the hour. hillary clinton is set to cast her vote in her hometown today following a very late night and early morning. joining us from chop akwau, kasie hunt. how confident is team clinton heading into election day? >> reporter: hey, mika. they are preparing two versions of her speech, and they are going to have one concession speech and one victory speech, and with that said i think it would come as a real shock to this campaign if she ended up delivering the concession speech instead of the victory speech, because really the mood and the atmosphere very different from a week ago when it was a little more grim in the wake of the news from director comey, and this has been over the last 24 hours a celebration as much as anything else. i will say, though, it's clear

that they are aware that there could be some issues on the other side of this, if there are questions about what donald trump might do if he loses. hillary clinton eluded to that onstage in philadelphia last night. take a look. >> he then launches an attack on our democracy, refusing to say whether or not he would accept the outcome of the election. well, let's show tomorrow there will be no question about the outcome of this election. >> reporter: they were traveling on the plane back with bon jovi last night and there was a late-night concert rally, and they posed for the mannequin challenge, which is new to me, and you can take a look at it, and i think you could potentially see them prepared for a bigger loss in ohio than you might expect, but north carolina is one to watch, they

say, and that could be late into the night. >> kasie hunt, thank you very much. let's bring in contributor of "time" magazine, and msnbc political correspondent, and others. >> i have been saying for weeks now the famous adage, in politics it's a lifetime. i can say now two days is a lifetime. >> maybe 24 hours. >> they were freaking out. i was getting phone calls from tke democrats across the country, oh, my god, is she going to lose? you get the sense 36 hours later, everybody is relaxed and there's a feeling that she is pulling away. what are your numbers telling you, and what are you feeling? >> we could always be wrong and there are always surprises, but it feels like from the trump

campaign standpoint, you live by the comey letter or die by the comey letter. i am looking at it tonight and you look at obviously florida, we talked about the importance of florida, and all the indications we are getting out, it's not just latinos going for trump but it's turning out in overwhelming numbers, and we will see this as the results come, and if the black vote is down does hillary clinton make up for it with a higher latino vote. >> democrats are insistent the unaffiliated voters are hispanic and democratic. can you confirm that? >> this is specifically, in the four quarters, you have the puerto rican community and there's a political science down there monitoring the early vote down there and that's what he is saying, he found that these are

latino voters who are registering as independence, and it will be revealed when the returns come in. >> you can monitor who voted, but now how they voted, obviously? >> we know how many hispanics voted. the real question is, if you go back at least based on 2012 numbers, republicans would be in a really good position right now and would feel like they are going to win florida and north carolina, and what are the unafill kwreutd voters in florida and does trump live by the sword and die by the sword as far as hispanics. >> and so many of those hispanics are millennials and it's interesting because this is not a barack obama candidacy year and millennials seem to be coming out and throughout the day i wonder what will happen, and it's an implication of where it goes if millennials in large

numbers are rejecting trump. >> we have sat at the set of "morning joe" for the last year, and i say it with incredible respect, people like you, really confused as to what to do. i remember moments when certain things happen and it was like, now what do i do? what does somebody like you do today? >> you know what put me as close as i would possibly come to hillary clinton, when i saw the report yesterday of who trump's cabinet would be, and i saw newt gingrich, and rudy guiliani for attorney general and it scared me to death. >> you can go back to mississippi -- >> well, i am a true undecided voter. >> wow. >> on election day! it's hard. >> i think, gene, it's going to be a fascinating decision for republicans. all across america, as they go

in, and they look, and they say -- people have been say i can't vote for trump, and then they see hillary clinton, and i would love to see their hand. >> there's another way that can break. there are people who could say, you know, i am going to stick with the party and i am going to go for trump and hold my nose and then they get in the voting booth and they say, you know, donald trump, and you know, i won't tell anybody, but -- it's going to be really interesting what to see what those republicans do. >> if it's a one or two-point race, trump could surprise a lot of people tonight. it's feeling more like a three or four-point race right now and that makes it harder and what makes it harder than that is miami-dade. this county -- if hillary

clinton wins florida tonight, then miami-dade and what happened there before today will have decided who the next president of the united states will be. that one county. talk about why. >> i thinkbe. a couple weeks ago, we were down embedded with trump's dade operation, and one of his senior advisers said miami-dade may be the most important county in the entire county for the trump campaign. because if we don't win florida, his quote was, we're cooked. if you look at what has happened in miami-dade in the early votes, there's been a massive outpouring of hispanic voters. i believe as of today, more hispanics have voted in county in early voting than did in the entire 2012 election in the county. and while black turnout had lagged early on, it has now caught up and surpassed where it was earlier. so every early indication we have from miami-dade is that this critical county for donald trump is leaning pretty heavily in clinton's direction.

if that is the case at the end of tonight, it could wind up being an earlier night than lot of people expected. >> have you spoken to anybody who thinks the early voting numbers are not a real problem for donald trump? out of florida? >> the argument you get from republicans down there is, look, republican democratic margin is narrower now than it was in 2012. the problem with that analysis is it doesn't account for a large group of voters with no party affiliation who, as steve kornacki said, tend to skew younger, hispanic, puerto rican in particular, and all indications we have is this a group that tilts pretty heavily towards clinton. >> steve, again, i heard all day yesterday that florida was already cooked. right? it was already baked in. is that an objective fact from what you have seen? are there a lot of people making educated guesses? >> yeah.

>> we have seen it before. barack obama is going to win new hampshire. it is all over. hillary clinton -- we have seen it. george w. bush is going to beat al gore by three points. al gore ends up winning the popular vote. but it's a lot more of a science now than it was even 16 years ago. >> it's this strange thing where half the votes have been cast. the ballots are done, they're sitting there, and we have a sense of who the people are who cast them, but nobody has looked at a single ballot that has been cast and we don't know what the actual turnout is today. that's one of the things the trump campaign, some say it's wishful thinking, but they're banking on the idea of surge voter among white working class, among rural votes. those are election day voter. while the story if you're from the trump standpoint, what you would say if you want to be optimistic is the story for the last few weeks is the democrats with their superior organizing getting people out in early voting. people have been able to see that happen. what nobody has been able to see

is the enthusiasm build among the average trump voter who is going to turn out on election day and the story on election day will be, we never knew the trump voters could turn out in that number. looking at the numbers in a state where so many votes have been cast, that's probably a long shot, but that's what you're looking at. >> steve kornacki, eugene rob robins robinson, elise jordan and josh green, thank you all. >> elise, still -- >> still undecided. >> i'm sorry. you'll work it out. >> yeah. >> you've got a couple hours. >> you should give secretary of state gingrich a call. >> yes. get a feel for it. >> or a.g. giuliani. >> still ahead on "morning joe" -- >> they say we're tied in pennsylvania. i don't think so. i don't think so. i think we're going to blow them out tomorrow in a lot of different ways. blow them out. >> pennsylvania's former governor ed rendell weighs in on that prediction next on "morning joe."

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joining us now, attorney and republican strategist ben ginsberg. in philadelphia, former chairman of the democratic national committee and former governor of pennsylvania and msnbc political analyst ed rendell. how is the race looking today? >> well, it's amazing. i got to the polls at 6:30. our polls opened at 7:00. by 7:00, there were 62 people on line in my division. it's the most ever. even surpassing 2008. my division will vote 85/15 for hillary clinton. the level of determination among our voters, you know, people say there's an enthusiasm gap. i don't know how you quantify an enthusiasm gap, but there's sort of a grim determination among democratic base voters that

they're voting and they don't want donald trump to be president. >> there you go. >> may not be enthusiasm, but it counts. >> ben ginsberg, the path to 270 seems to be closing in or closing out for donald trump. >> it's now an inside straight for all the reasons you were talking about. again, what he's banking on is a wave of low propensity voters coming to create the wave that nobody sees coming. so it's a different turnout model. puts a great deal of emphasis on the republican national committee's ground game, because if it succeeds, he succeeds. if it doesn't succeed, he doesn't succeed. >> willie. >> ed, if hillary clinton does in fact win the state of pennsylvania, while will she have won? democrats have an advantage there, but will it be the fact that she had a ground game there and that donald trump didn't a ground game? or is there something else at play? >> willie, if it's a narrow victory, let's say two points, absolutely will be attributable to the fact she has a ground

game and ben says that donald trump is depending on the rnc ground game. there is no rnc ground game in pennsylvania. there is no republican state committee ground game in pennsylvania. so a narrow clinton win will be solely attributable to that fact. a bigger clinton win will be attributable to the fact that barack obama has done a great job campaigning for her. when he said last week, and i told the president this last night in philadelphia, when he says a vote for her is a vote for me, that message got through. >> all right. it is the top of the hour. exactly, right now. 8:00 a.m. on the east coast, 5:00 a.m. out west. you're watching "morning joe" on this election day. we're speaking with managing editor of bloomberg politics mark halperin, attorney and republican strategist ben ginsberg. former governor of pennsylvania, ed rendell, and veteran columnist and msnbc contributor mike barnicle. big day, joe. >> yeah, huge day. and so much of it really

resolves around what josh green talked about last hour, florida. the early votes. miami-dade. and obviously, you know florida extraordinarily well. we spent how many days in florida today? >> 36, but who's counting. >> 36 in 2000. so talk about the early votes, if you will. a lot of democrats and some -- here's hillary clinton, actually, arriving in chappaqua, new york. to vote this morning. >> probably on no sleep, if any. >> with bill clinton. looked like -- >> a different kind of early vote. >> exactly. but what do you see out of florida? a lot of florida insiders thinking actually the early vote really tilts hillary clinton's way. what was your take? >> my take on it was that the hispanic vote particularly got out. it was interesting that they're registering as independents. >> why is that? >> why is that? because i think independents is something that would appeal to first-time voters with these two

candidates. and being independent is an easier way to vote for hillary clinton and marco rubio. without having to declare a preference. sort of the interesting thing about early voting that will be -- that we ought to look at on thursday is whether it actually increases overall turnout or not or is it a convenience for people. we're jumping to the conclusion now that the early vote is going to be determinant because the electorate has changed. >> you look across the state of florida, obviously, a lot of the areas that haven't been reported, obviously are areas that are less urban. more rural. people that aren't going to be going out and voting early. obviously, the stronghold for donald trump. it's really hard, as woo know in florida, to make up a huge gap out of miami-dade and broward and palm beach county. that said, trump's strength comes tonight. day of. >> panhandle closing an hour

later than the rest of the state. >> let's be careful. mika, i warned the networks in 2000, and some of the newspapers, not to call florida until they counted every vote in the panhandle. and they didn't listen. they should listen tonight. >> you're looking at live pictures from chappaqua, new york. hillary clinton among a sea of iphones taking pictures of her and former president bill clinton at the polls this morning after rallying last night until 3:20 in the morning. but the democratic nominee is up early and voting. let's take a look at some of the last national polling before the race is decided as we monitor the pictures. a national poll from monmouth university gives hillary clinton a six-point lead. 50% to 44%. meanwhile, fox news poll gives hillary clinton a four-point lead in a four-way race, she leads donald trump 48% to 44% nationwide. she gets the backing of 91% of democratic voters, while trump wins 86% of republicans.

the gop nominee is also claiming more support from independent voters, a six-point edge over the democrat. when it comes to electoral votes, nbc's final battleground map shows clinton with a projected advantage. hillary clinton, 274. donald trump, 170. of course now it's in the voters' hands. >> it certainly is. over the past several days, you had an unmistakable break to hillary clinton. >> yeah, no question. you look at that final nbc map, 274 electoral votes. that's enough to win, obviously. crossing the 270 threshold, so that means donald trump could win all those toss-up states in the middle and still lose the election. talking about florida and ohio and north carolina. he's got to pick off a blue state, a state that's already been pushed into her column, according to nbc news. i think it's worth pointing out what we were just looking at there, which was secretary clinton, a woman, voting for herself to become president of the united states in a general election. something we haven't seen

before. and there's vice president biden casting his vote right now as well. >> perhaps over the past several weeks, thinking about what might have been. mark halperin, we have said it a thousand times. it's always about trend lines. if somebody is down or up two points in the polls, that's not so important as if there's some massive trend. so the polling all seems to be going in hillary clinton's direction. it makes sort of a surprise tonight by trump voters less likely, does it not? >> depends on where you start the trend. the trend has been over the last ten days in trump's direction. it just hasn't closed enough -- >> but has it not broken back towards hillary clinton? >> in some of the national polls. in the state polls, there's not enough good data to say that for a sure thing. i have been asking republicans in the last 24 hours, including sean spicer yesterday, on "with all due respect" do you imagine a scenario in which trump wins the electoral college and loses

the popular vote. they claim they're not thinking about it. it's hard to see him winning the national popular vote and it would take an aberration to lose the national popular vote and still get to 270 electoral votes. >> yeah, mike barnicle, again, just the pictures we're looking at right here, not a political statement. a statement of fact that we're watching a moment of history, a woman voting for herself to become president of the united states in a general election. >> there's no doubt about that, willie. but also what we're watching is, you know, part of the pageant of democracy. people are voting today in this country, and trends, we have been talking about trends. trend on this day inevitably and historically have given way to the mechanics of election day. as ed rendell noted, the ground game, no ground game in pennsylvania. if you go down the coast of all these important states that we'll be watching this evening, florida, north carolina, pennsylvania, new hampshire. hillary clinton's ground game not only is existing, but it's right up there technologically.

they have targeting. they know where their voters are. and sadly for donald trump's campaign, he had very little in terms of a ground game of getting his people out. it's going to be the sophisticated elements of targeting and moving people to the polls and the clinton campaign. the trump campaign is going to have to, i think, largely have to rely on the emotion of people to get out and vote for their candidate. >> governor rendell, i wonder if you would echo what joe biden told us in philadelphia at the convention. that is moving forward, obviously, the republican party is going to have to go through a lot of soul searching. but joe biden said at the democratic convention when he was on our show that the democratic party has to do the same and figure out why -- at what point they left behind a lot of white working class vo r voters in the parts of pennsylvania that actually voted for you along with philadelphia.

how do democrats get back union households in the center of the state and in western pennsylvania when all the trends seem to be breaking away from democrats there? >> i think the key, joe, is for hillary clinton if she gets elected to perform. just like she did in new york. when she ran for re-election in new york, remember, the republican farm bureau who hadn't endorsed a democratic senator in 30 years, endorsed her. why? because they said we saw her more than any senator before her. she's got to have policies and she's got to do symbolic things. i would advise them tomorrow if they win to have a listening tour again, just like she did when she ran the first time in new york. take this listening tour into places in pennsylvania where she's going to get clobbered. the places in michigan where she's going to get clobbered. and just sit there and listen. and you're going to take a little abuse, but listen and then try to formulate policies that will address some of those problems. and you know, it's not always

easy because sometimes people don't want to hear the truth. trade didn't cost pennsylvania manufacturing jobs. it cost maybe 10% of the manufacturing jobs we have lost. technology cost it 90%. so we've got to retrain those workers. and there are things we can do. there are jobs wanted signs for truck drivers who make $70,000, $88,000 a year. why aren't those out of work steel workers being retrained as truck drivers? hillary has to listen and then she's got to puform. if she performs, i believe she will, if she performs, that will change all that, bring the voters back. >> mike, she's actually done it before in this campaign. i thought one of the more compelling moments of hillary clinton's very corporate, very sort of buttoned down, top down campaign, one of the best moments was when she actually went to west virginia, talked to coal miners, had a real conversation with them about their future and the future of

the country. >> joe, you've been talking about this. we have been talking about this around the table now for months. and ed rendell just nailed it. because what hillary clinton is going to have to do is basically a nonpartisan issue. we're going through a period of american history right now that is tantamount, quite similar to the industrial revolution, when we went from becoming an agricultural nation to an industrial nation. we're now involved i the middle of technological changes that arrive with such pace that nobody can get their hands around exactly where it's going. but what we do know is that there are millions of people in this country, republicans and democrats, who are forced to live paycheck to paycheck because they're caught in this web. this unknowing web of what's going to happen with this aspect of the economy or that aspect of the economy. and it's a shareholder economy. when companies, big companies get in trouble, they lay off workers and their stock goes up. but wages haven't gone up really

in 15 or 20 years. and the next president of the united states is going to have to deal with that. we leave nobody behind, but nobody believes that anymore. >> so ben ginsberg, let's talk about the republican party. joe mentioned soul searching. i would say more like rebuilding or what would you describe the word to be, as they move forward, the party of joe scarborough or the party of paul ryan or the party of mitt romney. where do these people go, and while democrats may have the upper hand in sort of rebuilding and doing that listening tour that ed rendell is talking ability, if hillary clinton wins, how do the republicans navigate from here on out? >> well, i think there are two tracks that the republicans have to follow. first of all, if donald trump loses, he will have done a huge favor for the republican party in the sense of showing that the traditional three-legged stool of the reagan revolution needs a little rebuilding and refurbishing. that means two tracks. >> just a tad. >> by the way, ben, i'm starting to hear even republicans who

were extraordinarily hostile towards donald trump over the last three to four days saying, we need to learn something from this guy. >> totally. >> i have heard it all year. i'm now hearing it. i think i'm hearing it and you're hearing it because they're seeing michigan in play even though it will probably go to clinton. they're seeing pennsylvania in play even though it will probably go to clinton. he's outperforming traditional republicans in a lot of areas. >> he's clearly brought people who were not republican voters to vote republican. he may have turned off some more traditional republicans in doing that, but that's what you build from. so there needs to be on the sort of philosophical side, the practical side, a rethinking about the issues. republican conservative ideas, donald trump has shown, are too steal stale to actually win. back when the reagan revolution started, there were guys like newt gingrich and vin weber and

john boehner who had the conservative opportunities that i know you remember. there needs to be a rebuilding of that. >> an ability to connect. >> ability to connect is absolutely part of it. small government conservative solutions that actually answer the problems that people have. >> with some populism. mark halperin, though, and this is a good segue into an area we haven't talked about two hours and 15 minutes in. that's the senate. we're watching right now a live shot from chappaqua, new york, west chester county. a place that hillary clinton, i don't know if she selected it when she moved to new york by, you know, throwing a dart at the map, but if she did, she picked a pretty good place to live. chappaqua, new york. and actually, selected it because she wanted to run for the united states senate in the state of new york in 2000. she did that. while bill clinton was still under a cloud of various scandals, including the mark

rich scandal at the end of the campaign, and a remarkable thing happened when hillary clinton moved out of bill clinton's shadow as first lady. she started to find her footing. and actually got elected to the united states senate comfortably. and then did something even more difficult. she earned the respect and admiration of republicans and democrats alike as somebody who worked hard and always, always showed up at the committee and did the big and the little things, mark halperin. as we talk about the senate, though, i want to move that while we watch these pictures of hillary clinton and bill clinton sort of working the fence or the rope line. the republicans, it always seems it's a tale of two parties. the republican party has crashed. it's in flames. it's the worst that it's ever been. my party is going to lose the sixth out of seventh election in popular vote, yet republicans' own governorships, they own the house, they own the senate.

if the republicans hold on tonight, if they even tie it, they have massive advantages two years from now. i say all that not to discount a presidential loss tonight and how devastating that will be for this party, but just to underline the fact, there are two republican parties. a republican party that a lot of voters trust on the state level and even with their congressmen and senators. but don't trust to hold the biggest job in the land. >> even under the worst case of what people are expecting tonight, republicans, given that it's a presidential year, will have a decent in how many seats they had up protecting in the senate, will have a decent night. they may have a more than decent night. they're below the presidential level, they're a pretty successful party. part of the problem is you have to ask yourself why have they been a successful party. is it because their candidates have lots of great ideas that are capturing the public imagination? in some cases, yes. in other cases, it's reaction to

part of the obama agenda that have been unpopular and the republican in the state level success begets success. some democrats are saying even if hillary clinton wins, they have to figure out a way to be a better party below the presidential level. governorships in massachusetts, ohio, wisconsin, michigan, all held by the republicans. florida, all held by the republicans. >> governor rendell, there's so much talk about what a drag donald trump would be down ballot. that he would take down the senate perhaps with him, maybe even the house, there was talk about for a while. let's talk specifically in your state about mcginty and toomey. what has been the impact of donald trump and how is that race going to settle out? >> well, i think it depends on how much, and if hillary clinton carryathize state. if she carries the state from the four or five in the polls, i think katie mcginty wins. pat toomey had a difficult task to undertake just like a lot of republicans do, what to do about donald trump. he never totally disavowed donald trump.

he never said he wasment voting for him. but he said that he couldn't say he was voting for him. and i think pat toomey will lose 10,000, 20,000, 30,000 rabid trump voters who are angry at him because he wouldn't support trump. that might turn out to be the margin of defeat. so it was damned if you do in the philadelphia suburbs, if you said you supported trump. damned if you do if you say you don't support trump. he tried today have it both ways. i think it's going to hurt him. whether it will hurt him badly enough to lose, i wouldn't say that for sure. i think pat has a better chance to carry the state than donald trump does. >> so we're watching live pictures in chappaqua, new york, of hillary clinton and bill clinton with throngs of not just supporters. these are her friends and neighbors in chappaqua, new york, who have come out to support the democratic nominee but also their friend and neighbor, as she votes for herself for president of the united states. a joyful moment, tough for the secret service, as bill and hillary clinton have decided to

washington right into the crowd and reach out and touch everybody there. a fun moment, though, on this election day, as we sort of take in everything that's happening. >> certainly, hillary clinton has to know that at least if you look at the public polling, the wind is behind her back. they're feeling very good. about florida, feeling good about north carolina, feeling good about winning this race. but you know, we have been -- we get some things right around this table. >> let's listen. >> so many people are counting on the outcome of this election. what it means for our country, and i'll do the very best i can if i'm fortunate enough to win today. >> how does it feel to be a political spouse? >> thank you. >> it's felt that way for several years now, and good. i've had 15 years of practice. >> bill and hillary clinton taking a few questions and being moved on. move on, move on. >> she moved on, but a crafty

reporter nailed a question at bill clinton. >> would not take the pitch. he would swing away, as bill clinton always does. ben, i was about to say, we have some things right around this table around the past year or two. we got some things wrong around the table. one of the things it seems we really got wrong, we won't know until tonight, but we kept saying that the republicans were going to have an absolutely terrible time juggling donald trump. and we looked specifically to ohio, pennsylvania, new hampshire, and wisconsin. if you look at the public polling, on election day, we were wrong. because kelly ayotte right now is at least tied right now with maggie hassan. rob portman is just blowing away his opponent. pat toomey would have had difficulty in any election, any presidential election year in pennsylvania.

and shockingly, and i will say shockingly, ron johnson is in a competitive race with russ feingold. all four of them may lose. well, three may lose. but it's lot closer than certainly i ever thought it would be for these people that were juggling, do i support trump, do i not support trump? i don't think anyf those four actually came down strongly on one side. >> and the unwritten story is the credit that the national republican senatorial committee should get for a year ago, a year and a half ago, telling senate campaigns to run independently. and ed rendell may not be able to see the rnc ground game on the field, but each and every one of the senate candidates has run their own ground game independent of the rnc and they deserve an awful lot of credit for the way they have actually been able to do the mobilization on a state level themselves. >> part of the story with the exception of new hampshire and

missouri, democrats did not recruit superstar candidates. being an incumbent senator, someone like pat toomey taking positions more in line with the state, is hard to beat an incumbent like that. >> governor, it's pretty remarkable these republican senate candidates are as close as they are given there's no coordination. the sort of things that democ t democrats especially in states like pennsylvania and cities like philadelphia, that you have done your entire life, we republicans just aren't good at that game. but these senate candidates, without coordination, seem to be keeping it pretty close. that's remarkable. again, i'm not talking about the party or any positions they're taking. it's one of these remarkable political phenomenons that kelly ayotte is knocking on her own door. they're knocking on the doors on their own. they're not coordinating with the presidential candidate. in fact, they're working against the presidential candidate in

some ways. >> joe, mark's point is a good one. i have always said at any level, candidates matter. the quality of candidates matter. if kelly ayotte and pat toomey win, it will be because not only they were good candidates but they were good senators. they did what they said they would do. they governed. they listened. they were accessible, et cetera. they made some mistakes in office, but everybody else does. so i think candidates matter, and we were running up some very good incumbents. i think if johnson loses to feingold, like kirk losing illinois, it will be because they weren't as effect as kelly ayotte and pat toomey were. the one thing that i think nobody has put a finger on yet, everyone said that hillary clinton was going to have trouble putting the obama coalition back together, particularly with millennials. well, did any of you stay up late enough? of course, i was at the pennsylvania rally, by the time i got home, i watched the north

carolina speech at nc state. those millennials were out of their mind. they were out of their mind. i think millennials may be the story. and if that's the story for hillary clinton in pennsylvania, it may well be the story that puts katie mcginty across. >> ed rendell, ben ginsberg, thank you both. still ahead on "morning joe," donald trump looks to turn blue states red. >> in michigan, which i think we're going to win michigan, by the way. i tell you, we're going to win michigan. you know what we're going to win? we're going to win minnesota. we're going to win minnesota. >> we're going to talk to michigan's former governor jennifer granholm, plus al franken of minnesota. you're watching "morning joe" on this election day. we'll be right back. the pursuit of healthier. it begins from the second we're born.

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i do think a lot of the polls are purposely wrong. i can almost tell you by the people, the media is very dishonest. extremely dishonest. i think a lot of polls are phony. i don't even think they interview people. i think they just put out phony numbers. >> all right, it is almost 30 past the hour. joining us now, former mccain senior campaign strategist and msnbc political analyst steve schmidt. best selling author and associate editor from the "washington post," david maraniss. he won the pulitzer for his 1993 coverage of bill clinton. here we are, david. also with us, columnist at the washington examiner, kristen soltis anderson. in washington, executive vice president of public affairs at psb research, margie omero. she and kristen are co-hosts of the top rated podcast, the pollsters. you have your hands full, joe. >> david, we have to start with david. obviously, you wrote your

remarkable book, first in its class about bill clinton. it's hard to imagine how many years, what, 23. >> 24 years. >> 24 years later. somebody else who is basically first in her class, i mean, could we have ever imagined this at the beginning of that ride? >> it's so improbable. when you think about the meeting in 1971 at yale law school and realizing even then that they might get someplace together that they couldn't get to apart. the fact that they actually achieved it, first him and then her 24 years later makes it all the much more difficult to conceive. >> when you wrote that book, hillary clinton was in many ways as divisive in '93 and '94 as donald trump is now. when i ran in '94, i wasn't running against bill clinton so much as i was running against hillary clinton, and hillary care and the all of the negatives that were attached to

her. >> that was a very difficult period for hillary. she had always before that been bill clinton's savior, essentially. >> right. >> in arkansas, she's the one who led the task force on education reform. >> upset the teachers union. but won a lot of respect. >> exactly. he invested so much faith in her that when he put her in charge of health care and that failed, it was really a very difficult period for her and for them as well. but one thing that donald trump, remember when he was asked how he could compliment hillary, he said, well, she never gives up. that's the truth. she's the most persistent of them all. >> i have never seen anybody, i was saying this before, steve, i have never seen anybody in my political lifetime or i can't even think of a historical precedent of somebody who has been knocked down as many times as hillary clinton has been knocked down for 25 -- , i'm sorry, going back to 1980, when they lost the first time.

going back almost 40 years. and she's about to get elected president unless a lot of unforeseen things happen tonight. >> there's never been a person who has been in the center of american life with the spotlight shining on them in the middle of the stage for as long as it's been on her, who we're actually considering making president of the united states. it's extraordinary. the only other analogy would be richard nixon who was famous in the country for 20 years. so she has all the cuts, all the bruises from that long period in the spotlight. but her endurance, you know, which i think we have dismissed too easily as a sign of weakness over this campaign because she's polarizing, but it's a sign of great political strength. and there's not another figure in the entire history of the country who has been as -- been as essential to a generation as she has. >> and the nixon analogy is

great because obviously by the time nixon was president in '68, he may have created his own enemies list. but there was a long list of people that put nixon at the top of his enemies list going all the way back to '46. >> '48. >> here we have hillary clinton the same way 20 years later. >> let's hear from the pollsters, first kristen and then margie. this issen over yet, though. what are you looking at? >> i'm looking at my home state of florida. in florida, you saw all of this early vote data that suggests a huge surge of latino voters are going to turn out. the question is, in the state of florida, you've got the northern half of the state, which is really prime trump country. so within this one state, you're seeing a microcosm of the whole country in sort of the tensions demographically between white and latino voters, college and noncollege voters. >> margie? >> well, i agree. florida is key, if you look at the latino vote. if trump ends up losing florida

and then likely losing the election because of this surge in latino vote, he would have ended up really losing the election within the first few minutes of his announcement when he went very directly after the latino community. but we're going to know a lot about this election at 8:00 p.m. when a whole bunch of states in the east coast are going to have their polls closed. pennsylvania, new hampshire, north carolina, and florida. and maine and georgia. if trump doesn't do well by 8:00 p.m., it's going to be a pretty short night for him. >> let's go the other way. if trump wins florida and new hampshire, what are we looking at next? >> a long night. >> a long night. >> i start looking at places, states like michigan where both campaigns have sort of inexplicably been there in the last couple days. what i'm hearing is democrats are there because they want to run up the score. trump campaign may be there because they're getting bad data. nonetheless, it's one of those states if you have a surge of latino voters taking states like nevada or florida off the board, michigan is a state where in the last election only 3% of voters

were latino voters. if we're seeing african-american turnout down, i still don't know if that really puts michigan in play, but those are the states i start looking at if trump is doing better than expected in florida or north carolina. >> the campaign was concerned about michigan and said if trump had gone in there earlier, he would have won. >> i do think what this election is about to some degree is this the last election where the map is going to be recognizable. in our lifetime, politics has been down the middle of the field. idealogically defined by a vertical line between left and right. we debate between the 45 yard lines. increasingly, what we see in this election defined by a lateral line, by a horizontal line. if you benefitted from the technological revolution, if you benefitted from globalization, you're above the line. you still have that idealogical line, but it's permeable. so a bernie sanders voter and a trump voter are deeply connected. they believe the system is rigged. they believe they can't get ahead. they believe there's one set of rules for people above that

line, different set of rules for people below the line. don't have faith in institutions across the board. we're going to see that open up. and so we see the southeast of the country trending blue. but i think what you'll see in this next election is those rust belt states trending red. we're going to have this tremendous dichotomy that opens up between, you know, the tech elites of the democratic party, the coastal elites, working class people, and when we talk about driverless trucks, driverless cars, the number one job for noncollege educated white males in america is driving something to somewhere. where do these people go for employment in an age of artificial intelligence? of robotics, of automation. we're talking about $12, $15 minimum wage. we're 18 months away from a robot arm handing you your mcdonald's through the drive-thru window.

all these issues in the next four years, eight years, are going to become profound ones. >> david, let's ask you the profound ones about the clintons' character. you have been studying it for some time. if you talk to maureen dowd or you talk to a lot of democrats, or you just read e-mails in between members of hillary clinton's own campaign staff, they were maddened by the self-inflicted wounds of the e-mail scandal. but that's followed the clintons for years. it seems that they create their own problems. republicans throw, of course, a lot of problems at them as well. is there any evidence -- >> it's not just also. i think in terms of the problems. >> it may be, but barack obama does not share the problems. >> absolutely true. >> that hillary clinton and bill clinton, they constantly get in their own way. >> this is my take on hillary.

is that over the course of 40 years of their partnership, she has built up an encrusted defensiveness. largely in defense of him and their rise together. to the point where she doesn't really see it all the time anymore, or often. and that leads to the lack of transparency. you combine that with her sort of methodest believe that she's doing good and therefore the ends justify the means. and that combination is what gets her in trouble. >> david maraniss, steve schmidt, kristen soelter anderson and margie omero, the pollsters, thank you all. >> coming up, we're standing by to see donald trump cast his vote later this morning. earlier this hour, we saw hillary clinton in the voting booth. up next, kristen welker joins us from chappaqua with more on the mood inside the clinton campaign. "morning joe" is back in a moment.

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joining us now from chappaqua, new york, where secretary hillary clinton has now voted, nbc news white house correspondent kristen welker. she's been covering the clinton campaign. what was it like outside the school where she voted, christen? >> reporter: a lot of energy and a lot of excitement. dozens of her supporters and also her neighbors gathered here, cheering for her, shouting her name as she went to vote. she greeted some of them after she cast her vote and talked about how humble she feels on this day. i have been talking to clinton campaign officials who say the mood inside the campaign is confident, confident about the campaign that they have run. also telling me, they were jubilant last night on the campaign plane coming home to new york for one final time. the reason why they're feeling good today, willie, a couple of reasons. one, they think that secretary clinton's message is one that's going to resonate with the obama coalition, what they're now calling the clinton coalition. younger voters, women voters,

minority voters. and they're feeling good about their ground game. that's going to be the difference in states that are close, states like michigan. right now, the campaign has 33 offices in michigan alone. i'm told they had more than a million volunteers out all over the country throughout the weekend who made more than 21 million contacts with potential voters. so they think ultimately that type of preparation is going to make all the difference on a day like this when they are bracing for what could likely be a close finish. i'm told that secretary clinton is going to spend much of this day with family and also writing two speeches. one for either outcome. willie. >> you have to have both ready. kristen welker in chappaqua, new york, thank you. let's bring in hallie jackson on set with us, and in washington, hillary clinton supporter and former democratic governor of michigan, jennifer granholm. as kristen welker mentioned in the final day of campaigning, michigan has emerged as perhaps an unexpected battleground.

one of the final stops for the candidates and their surrogates. it's good to see you there, governor. is michigan really a battleground right now or is secretary clinton and her campaign been shoring up a state they think they have. >> i think it's the latter. we're feeling so great, in fact, if i were feeling any more great about this election -- >> you're giddy, governor. >> they would have to arrest me. i have the juju, the positive energy, juju we're feeling is terrific. michigan, we strongly believe, and if you look at any of the objective prognosticators like fivethirty-eight or the upshot, they're giving it between a 75% and 90% chance of going hillary clinton. and of course, we know that michigan and new hampshire and pennsylvania are game day states. that's why they spent time there, to shore up what they know is necessary for them and to make sure that donald trump didn't have a sneak in under the wire late victory. >> governor, you're practically

out of breath you're so excited about the outcome here. what would you say, i mean, you don't want to get too overconfident. the votes haven't been cast yet. where are the areas of concern for you and the clinton campaign if not in the state of michigan? >> i don't think it's in michigan. i was predicting yesterday that i was predicting that we would take ohio, too. and i know that the early vote numbers in ohio at least in cuyahoga county weren't as much as everybody wanted, but they were really record breaking in franklin and hamilton counties where columbus and cincinnati are, so we're crossing our fingers for that. but you know, two thirds to three quarters of that early vote being in, both in nevada and in north carolina and in florida, where she is ahead in all of those states. she's even ahead in iowa. not as much as barack obama was before, but she's still ahead in the early vote. so i don't know. we're feeling pretty good. not overconfident, of course,

but i feel really good. i can tell you, after all of this time where our stomach has been in a knot and i'm speaking collectively, i was just in the makeup room, and penny the makeup artist was telling me there's a 6:00 call for a global meditation on the election. perhaps that would be a good recipe for me. >> okay, hallie jackson. >> to quote meg ryan, i'll have what she's having. >> this is what i love about jennifer granholm. you have to ask her a question that gets that democratic national convention jennifer granholm to come out, because she's right there. she's right at the line. >> already there. >> we're on the edge. >> look, there you go. go, hallie. get it. >> you say you're not overconfident, but you sound incredibly confident. it's interesting that you talk about ohio because that's a place that i think a lot of opt recei operatives say is an uphill challenge for hillary clinton. i'm wondering what you're seeing that gives you room for

optimism. >> i'm drinking coffee, so it's really nothing of -- nothing illegal. >> but talk ohio, because that's a surprising one. i'm not sure even the clinton campaign feels all that confident about ohio. >> perhaps it's because i have been talking to the chairman of the ohio democrats, david pepper, who has been sending me all these clips about what early voting looked like. like there were lines and there were sort of -- there was a party atmosphere, and it was down the block. and they were seeing these incredible especially late numbers out of cuyahoga county. even, and if they had not cut off the early voting in ohio, they feel like they would have been at par, at least that's what they're saying. they feel like from their internal modeling that they have banked some votes that will, you know, prove out to be i think very competitive in the end. so i don't know. we'll see what happens, obviously, but i hope when you talk to me tomorrow morning, we will say that not only did she take all of the battleground

states but even the ones where you are were skeptical, i hope she is victorious, because ultimately, you want to be able to have her come in with a message of unity, where she says the country, even though, as she is saying now on the campaign, who didn't vote for her, even those who were angry because of lost jobs and all of that, that they feel like they have a president who speaks for them and that obviously is a message that's important for the midwest. >> former governor jennifer granholm, check your coffee. thank you. check it. >> you have to love an interview where the guest has to clarify, it's nothing illegal. that was a quote from her. >> she does lots -- she gets so excited. i love it. i absolutely love it. i can't wait to see her tomorrow morning. i cannot wait. >> she's obviously -- listen, she said she wasn't feeling overconfident, but she's psyched. she talked about the juju. what's interesting to me, you're seeing it all it's warranted or not on both sides. ia saw eric trump, he was predicted florida. he's calling it for his father,

which he kind of has to do on election day. nothing to lose other than calling it, but the trump campaign, obviously, has an uphill climb. >> hallie jackson, thank you as well. >> still ahead, senator al franken is pushing for congressional hearings into fbi director james comey and hillary clinton's e-mail server. adding it to a long list of investigations that lawmakers are promising no matter who wins the white house. we'll ask the senator if he sees any hope of getting something productive done in washington. that's ahead on "morning joe."

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with us now from minneapolis, we have democratic senator al franken of minnesota. of course, better known as the trump state. trump is going to win your state, right? he told us he has it in the bag. he went there and campaigned. do we paint that red yet? >> you know, i'm the poster child for close elections. so i'm going to spend the rest

of the day getting out the democratic vote. that's what i care about. i won by a whopping 312 votes back in 2008. so every vote counts. i don't know what granholm was on, but -- >> oh, my lord. she was very confident. you are a direct contrast. >> by the way, that's the way to be, right? you run scared. you play scared. you try to get every single vote, right? >> yeah. the way i am. the way i am. i didn't like her juju thing, by the way. >> you didn't like that? >> that scared me. >> she's excited. come on, she's excited. the first woman pred. >> that was a dog whistle. >> well, so al, we had a remarkable conversation with michael moore earlier this week. a guy who ten years ago obviously, i couldn't find one thing i agreed with him on. we both agreed, and i'm sure you agree as well that working-class voters, middle-class voters,

whether they're republican or democrat, whatever they are, they're being left behind. isn't that really not just a great challenge of the next president but a great challenge of our time economically? >> yeah, you know, i grew up, i was born in 1951. my dad didn't graduate high school. he was a printing salesman. but i grew up feeling like i was the luckiest kid in the world because i was growing up middle class in the height of the middle class in america in minnesota. and i want -- i want kids to feel that way again. i think we can do that. i think there are approaches that hillary clinton has to shoring up the middle class and i think that democrats have -- are all focused on that. creating a path to the middle class for those who aspire to it and, you know, doing a lot of things, and one of them isn't

tax cuts for the very wealthiest americans. but it's about things like, you know, sick leave and higher minimum wage and making sure we have early childhood education. there are all kinds of making college more affordable, those are the things i wish we had been talking about a little bit more in this race. and i think that is a very important topic, and there's all kinds of different takes on how to do that. >> senator franken, it's willie geist. good to see you this morning. begins tonight, once the race is called, once we know who the next president is, once the senate races are settled, people will start asking what the country looks like now, what washington looks like now. there's been a lot of skepticism that the two sides can get together, not just in the country but specifically in congress as it relates to the president. can you give people some hope today that things will work better, perhaps, than they have worked in the past?

>> yeah, sure. you know, hillary clinton was in the senate for eight years. i have a lot of friends, colleagues on the other side of the aisle who worked with her. and said she was great to work with. and i'm very optimistic about her willingness to reach out to them and, you know, this is kind of going to be a little bit in -- you know, if hillary wins, which i obviously hope she does, it's going to be a little bit in their side of the court. they're going to have to figure out how the republican party, what it's going to be going forward. and i hope we don't see a repeat of obstructionism that we saw, you know, during the obama administration. i hope we work together. i think that she always talks about trying to find common ground, standing her ground when she has to, but i'm looking

forward to doing my job and working with my colleagues on both sides of the aisle. >> all right, senator al franken, thank you so much. >> thank you very much. >> thank you for your measured approach. >> very measured. >> as opposed to jennifer granholm. >> that's me. >> thank you so much. >> mike barnicle, i love what he said, by the way, born in '51. his dad working class guy, he just felt lucky to be an american. you know, middle class. how do we get that american dream back? i mean, that's the question moving forward. >> one of the things we have to do is stall maligning people. and i was going to ask al franken about the dangers of automatically maligning trump voters, a certain percentage of whom would have votied for berne sanders. >> michael moore, again, looking for things to be positive about. michael moore comes on here and his entire film is him engaging trump voters. not insulting trump voters. that's what we have to do.

>> a big opportunity. >> we have to engage, right? >> absolutely. look, this country is a gift to us. and this country is not a song. it's not the star-spangled banner. it's not the flag waving that occurs on memorial day. it's every hour of every day, and it's the ability that we all have today to go out and vote. that's what this country is. the gift to us. >> mark halperin, to channel tom brokaw, today is also the day for the media to sit back and let the voters have the final word. >> pageantry of the greatest democracy on urld, i'm trying to channel mike barnicle poetry. there's a lot of negativity, but the engagement of voters for both candidates has been huge. they're passionate urnt tabout country and the direction it should go in. >> mika, what are you looking forward to? >> this time tomorrow, we'll have a new president and we'll be in studio h-8 talking about

it. i'm looking for peace tonight, clarity tonight, and probably looking ahead to the next woman president of the united states. how about you? >> i'm just looking forward to us getting past very divisive, i would say 16 years, maybe 24 years. and figure out how to work together moving forward. whether donald trump is the next president of the united states or hillary clinton is the next president of the united states. but we're not going to know that until you vote. that does it for us this morning. >> yes, stephanie ruhle picks up msnbc's election day coverage right now. an election like no other. a country divided like never before. will it be a historic first? >> i have stayed focused on one thing. on you. >> or a historic comeback. >> america is tired of waiting. the moment is now. >> today, no more speeches. no more ads. it comes down to this. one