way. obviously, she's an unconventional candidate because she'd be historic. trump feels more slapdash. i think, ultimately, and this is a cliche, but, really, the difference is going to be whether this ground game operation they've put together on the fly, tons of money they've spent on it, will compare to trump's very sort of reliance on outside groups to do the heavy lifting. this is an exceedingly close race, and that matters. >> every state within the margin of error. sam stein, great to see you. thank you for being here. >> great to see you, too. >> thank you for getting up "way too early" with this us on this thursday morning. "morning joe" starts right now. i said, that debate, you know, they said i'm the g.o.a.t. in debates. i had a lot of debates when i became president. the g.o.a.t. means greatest of

all time. they didn't correct her once, and they corrected me on everything practically, nine times. the audience absolutely went crazy. and the real -- i thought it was -- i walked off and said, that was a great debate. i loved it. >> well, i mean, yeah. you know, the stage hands were going crazy. >> did he know there was -- >> there was a hound dog howling up in the balcony of abc. you know, peter jennings brought it originally. willie, the crowd went crazy. >> what debate is he talking about? >> is he confusing the debate with the taylor swift concert? >> our crowd in the studio, joe, every time i provide a piece of analysis or as you did there, they go bananas, leaps to its feet. >> yeah, baby, come on. >> sometimes they go into the wave when they're in here. >> oh. >> it's fun to watch.

>> not the weave, the wave. >> it energizes you. i mean, there's so much there. they say, who is they saying he is the g.o.a.t.? calling himself the g.o.a.t., talking about the rousing ovations he got in a completely empty constitution center. except for him, kamala harris, and the two moderators at the debate, which, obviously, as has been the case with both debates so far, had no audience in the room whatsoever. >> not at all. >> yes. crowd went crazy, though. biggest crowd you've seen at a debate. >> yeah. >> the t-shirt gun out, joe, shooting them to the fans. it was amazing. >> it was unbelievable. playing guns n roses. crowd surfing. maga crowd, it was wild. >> wow. >> that's something. whew, and he remembers that. >> yeah. >> he also says he's going to visit springfield, ohio, despite

objections from the city's republican mayor. it comes as there's new reporting on how the trump campaign knew the stories about haitian migrants in springfield were not true but spread the lies anyway. how sick. also ahead, the federal reserve makes an aggressive move on interest rates, with the first cut in four years. "morning joe" economic analyst steve rattner is here to break down what that move could mean for the future of the economy. >> well, i'll tell you what it means for willie and me, our off track dog race business. i think we finally get the cash, willie. we're going to open it up. >> yeah. now that we've also opened up the crypto lane on the dog racing, i think we're going to have a big year. a big year. >> right. okay. >> everything is coming up roses. let me tell you something. >> it's not even friday. >> you hear the crowd cheering in the studio? >> they're going wild.

>> willie, they want this to happen! >> ring the bell. >> the dancers just did a routine. >> does that feel good, keep you distracted? >> let me tell you, while we're talking about new york sports, mika, and i thank you for your patience. >> uh-oh. >> the new york yankees in the playoffs. i have to say, the other big story in new york right now, those mets. >> the mets. >> you have to believe, willie. you have to believe the mets now two games up in the wild card race over the braves. and they -- again, like we said earlier this week, they're giving back to the braves what the braves have done to them the last two or three years. just a torrid second half of the season. i've got to say, with as badly as the mets started the season, i don't think any of us, willie, would have thought going into the second half of september that this new york mets team would have the run that they have had down the stretch. >> yeah, they have been playing great lately. they beat the nationals again. they have a crazy stretch coming

up. a bunch of games with the phillies, the best team arguably in baseball. they actually play next week, a three-game series with the braves in atlanta, which likely will decide the whole thing. yeah, the mets playing great. yankees clinched at least the wild card out in seattle last night. for now anyway, baseball is good in new york. >> okay. we're also going to have the latest in the case against p. diddy, which seems to get worse as more and more information comes out. also, former secretary of state, former presidential candidate, democratic nominee hillary clinton will be on the show today about her new book. we look forward to that, as well. >> okay. along with joe, willie, and me, we have the host of -- >> we're going to ask her about -- >> don't interrupt me. >> -- if she was distracted by the applause in the debates with donald trump. the crowds were huge then. >> the host of "way too early," white house beef r bureau chief "politico," jonathan lemire is with us. >> he doesn't remember from week to week. what's with that?

that happened a couple times. he confused the air force base for one in alaska. what's going on there? >> first, you showed sam stein in the split screen. he cheered for me when i came up on set this morning. >> yeah. >> thank you, sam. >> that's sweet. >> very appreciative. >> boys. >> thank you, sam. >> yeah. >> this is happening more and more for donald trump. let's remember, he is 78 years old. with so much attention on biden's age when he was still in the race, it was overlooked that trump is just a couple years younger and just as prone, maybe more so, to these verbal slips and confusion. it's harder to pick it up from trump sometimes because he's so loud and has been doing this for years, so we may be numb to it. there is a new focus here about his mental capability and fitness for office. certainly one that democrats are pointing to. these mistakes, the mix-ups are

seemingly only increasing by the day. >> the crowd -- and, again, just to underline, he said the crowd went -- >> no crowd. >> -- crazy. >> at this debate. >> the crowd went crazy. >> dead quiet. >> no crowd. >> two hosts sitting there. >> i don't know. bagram air force base, maybe he can see it from alaska. i don't know. >> it's weird. >> we have new polls out. >> yeah. >> a lot of polls. >> slew of polls showing a tight presidential race in three key battleground states. let's start in pennsylvania. the latest "new york times"/siena college -- philadelphia inquirer poll of likely voters finds kamala harris ahead of former president trump, 50% to 46%. that result falls within the poll's margin of error. >> again, "new york times"/siena poll, usually they have her at three and donald trump at 97.

they did polling for saddam hussein in '97. this is close, but she's up by four points there. >> new quinnipiac university poll in pennsylvania finds harris leading trump, 51% to 45%. in michigan, harris has a five-point lead over trump. in wisconsin, it's close. harris leads trump by just one point. 48% to 47%. meanwhile, a new maris poll has them tied. five-point lead in michigan. one-point lead in wisconsin for harris. aarp poll finds harris leading trump by one point among likely voters in wisconsin. 49% to 48%. but among voters 50 and older, trump takes a three-point lead over harris. and the latest "new york times"/siena college national poll of likely voters finds harris and trump tied at 47%. what do you -- >> what do you think? >> well, i found the polls to be

disappointing in the past, so i never know what to believe. but it does give you a snapshot. i think the trend line is what you always say is the important thing to look at. >> yeah. willie, if you look at the trend lines in pennsylvania, in michigan, trend lines all -- most of them show kamala harris doing substantially better. six, seven, eight points better than joe biden did. up three, four points. again, still in the margin of error. look at the trend lines there. trend lines in pennsylvania and michigan look good for kamala harris. wisconsin just is about as tight as -- dan rather might say, as tight as a texas tick. >> a toad on a -- >> okay, he is better than that. his are good. >> he's got them all. >> there you go. >> i mean, it is stark when you look where we were before

president biden got out of the race, the trend lines, as we talk about, seemed to be slipping in a lot of states. obviously the battleground states but even others. at worst, kamala harris stabilized that. at best, in the swing states, she's grown a bit of a lead now on donald trump. sam stein, the good news for democrats is there is no celebration whatsoever inside the harris campaign. they're under no illusions they're running away with any of these states. they know how close it's going to be. interesting to note in the cross tabs on these polls, though, we looked at a minute ago, the quinnipiac polls, on specific issues that donald trump is believed to have and that he thinks he has an advantage, the economy and immigration, even those have entered sort of margin of error territory, suggesting that kamala harris has made up ground on those two pivotal issues in this race. >> yeah. i mean, unlike the crowded debate, you are right. not much celebration here for -- did i connect the dots there?

>> yeah. >> okay. >> we have to, you know, ruin the show a little bit. >> yeah. >> i will note that joe is right. it's funny because all these polls basically tell the same thing, of a tight race with probably a small harris lead. joe is right. you can imagine the collective freakout and meltdown if the numbers were slightly reversed in "the new york times"/siena poll and it was harris who was down a couple points in pennsylvania. democrats would have a therapy bill that would be monumental. but that's not the case. it's funny because i don't think republicans will feel the same way about that poll this morning. ultimately, it's a really close race, right? trend lines are slightly more favorable to harris. there's a question about whether she had plateaued a little bit. i think at this point, it is fair to say the debate gave her a small boost. yeah, i think we're looking at a race where it's like, you know, one or two percentage margins in a number of critical states that will determine the election. the good news for harris is not

just that she got a little bit of momentum, but that she has more money and also a more sophisticated ground game operation. i was talking about it with lemire a little bit. trump outsourced all his ground game operation to other groups, including an elon musk superpac. there was a news story this week that was a little underappreciated, but musk basically stopped contracting with a couple of those groups and decided to contract with another group. another thing of note, and i think willie hit on it, is on the key issue of the day, which is the economy, more trust for harris over time. secondly, and i know we'll get to this, but the fed interest rate cut. >> yeah. >> we have the recipe for a decent set of economic conditions heading into election day, which i think will benefit harris and which is why you saw a lot of the trump people angry about it, calling it

conspiratorial for harris. >> i'm going to go to lemire again. never misses it. i'm going to lemire now. >> you do it, honey. >> jonathan, now this is the part i'm coming to you, which i was telling mika that. >> inside voice. >> t.j. goes, take the prompt. >> okay. >> anyway, this story about plateauing, i want to bring this up, and as sam said, psychiatrists across manhattan, you know, they basically get a month's worth of work the day after a "new york times"/siena poll comes out. today, you know, it's like 47/47, but they threw in the pennsylvania deal as a mood regulator for people on the upper east side, upper west side. >> cut through the anti-depressant. >> exactly. so it's sort of like they have to stabilize it. >> it's the mixture. >> but that said, the only plateau there was was "the new york times"/siena poll.

i'm serious. you look at the polls that are out there right now. a lot of the ones that have come out the last couple days, national polls have harris up three, four, five, six points. these polls show certainly in the most important swing states a significant move toward her. wisconsin really tight. of course, wisconsin is wider. wisconsin is older, whiter. that was a state joe biden was over performing in. he did better with older white voters than other groups he usually performed in. that's what were seeing in wisconsin. right now, michigan, pennsylvania. if you're looking at these numbers, and also looking at what i still think may be a tight race in all the swing states, the most important story, that is that joe biden and kamala harris together have been building up millions of

dollars and building up a ground game over the last year. in part, joe biden is an old-time pawn, saying ground game, ground game. a good ground game is worth half a point, point in any state, especially when the other side is outsourcing their ground game. because they never had the discipline to build it. this is, again, not great news for harris. certainly, not good news for donald trump. >> right. >> let's first take a beat on that ground game. let's remember, of course, the rnc was then co-opted by the trump campaign and trump family. they used resources for his legal bills for a time opposed to working on the ground game. you're right. starting under president biden, when he was the candidate, and continued under vice president harris, the democrats have a massive advantage in all the battleground states in terms of offices. they've seen, after harris moved atop the ticket, a surge in volunteers. i've been told they don't even have enough jobs for people who want to do them. because there's such enthusiasm

for her. that has to help. she's going to have a massive financial advantage, as well. she's out-fundraised trump and will spend less time moving forward doing so. more time on the campaign trail. you know, certainly, in terms of the polls, you mentioned wisconsin. even in pennsylvania, as well, it's a state that's whiter than most of the country. the polls show some strength here from harris on white voters. even with older voters. now, not as strong as joe biden, which is why i think the harris campaign is going to use biden in targeted fashions to speak to those demographics going forward. the race is very close. the trend lines favor harris. in terms of, guys, the spin of these polls, it's always amusing. whenever a poll comes out that shows a tight race, republicans always grab it and say, look, we're doing really well. motivate our voters. we're doing well. we're going to win. that's also to pump up their candidate. democrats do it the other way. this is trouble. we're underdog. they know they don't want to take things for granted. they want to keep working.

the harris campaign feeding into that, saying, look, we have a lot of work to do. we're still losing. even though polls suggest she's not. >> let's talk about the big sign of where the economy is now, where it's headed. in a long-anticipated move, the federal reserve cut the target interest rate for the first time since 2020. they slashed half a percentage point off the benchmark rates that sets short-term borrowing costs for banks, also affecting auto loans and credit cards. the central bank forecasted lowering by another half point by the end of the year. let's bring in "morning joe" economic analyst steve rattner. here's the front page of the "wall street journal" this morning. it says, "the fed goes big with half point rate cut." we were talking beforehand, it sounds like a big number, and it is, but they were signaling it might go from not a quarter but to a half in the days before this. >> yeah. normally, it'd be a quarter for this first step in a rate cut

cycle. that's traditionally what's happened, outside of some crisis. the fact they went to 50 basis points says two things. one, they had the room to do it. inflation has come way down, and it is down to about 2.5%. secondly, they kind of needed to do it because the labor market is softening. you can see here the march of rates going up to the top of the mountain, then you can see them start to come down. what the fed also, you said, projected are more rate cuts this year, rate cuts next year, and gradually rates getting back to somewhat more normal level. on the right side, you see mortgage costs have already rolled over, and that's important. housing costs have been a big factor in the election, and it is important to show the american people there's hope on mortgage costs. >> steve, if it goes another half point by the end of the year as predicted, you're talking about a full point in the space of about four months or so. just in laymen's terms, what are the practical implications of

that for people watching the show today? >> lower interest costs as you said on mortgages, credit cards, all that stuff. the real implications are it gives a little more stimulus to the economy, provides a little bit more of a lift, but it also signals something important, which is that we have gotten the inflation under control. inflation is now down to 2.5%. fed's target is 2%. we're not that far from it. and it does show that. you can see that right up there. we have on the right side of the inflation, you can see the inflation mountain, going up the mountain, coming down the mountain. the fed has the scope now to do this, and it will do it. it is a big political lift for, i think, the harris campaign. i think they're in a position now, as the president is -- as president biden going to say, the economic club of washington today, he's going to be careful not to declare victory, but he'll say we've made a lot of process. it looks pretty good ahead. we're growing at 2%. we're adding jobs.

here's a fun fact for you, gdp under president biden, even if you strip out covid, moves slightly faster than it did under trump, who runs around and talks about his economy. actually, it was a little better under biden. >> we've heard this term, soft landing, a delicate dance the fed has to do to avoid a recession, effectively. does it look like our economy achieved that or will achieve that? >> remarkably, it does. this is almost without precedent. there's almost no example in history where the fed attacked inflation and managed to lick it without having a recession. yes, the percentage of economists who think there could be a recession in the next year, likely to be a recession in the next year, has gone from 65% down to 35%. and so we are basically in a pretty strong environment. i want to make one other point. trump, of course, is attacking the fed and saying it is political and blah, blah, blah. i'm not sure that trump understands how the fed makes rate decisions.

rate decisions are made by a committee of 12 people from all over the country, appointed by various presidents, by various local federal reserve banks. it is not jay powell's decision. you had an 11-1 decision yesterday in favor of cutting rates. this is the fed doing its job, not the fed playing politics. >> as always, donald trump suggesting something that doesn't cut his way, perhaps, there must be something corrupt or fishy going on, injecting that poison into the economy. quickly, something else he said before suggesting something was up with this, this was a sign that the economy is not doing well. what's the truth about that? >> the job situation has been slowing down a bit. unemployment is up to about 4.3% or thereabouts. that's still a pretty low number. the economy is slowing, but it is still positive. the fed also projected, and the numbers are showing, gdp growth of around 2%. it's not a barn on fire but it's not terrible. it's a very steady, solid growth rate. obviously, it is hard to predict

the economy. but it does not suggest the economy is in deep trouble. recession predictions have been coming down, down, down. >> steve rattner, always bringing the truth. thanks so much. we appreciate it. mika? all right. time now for a look at some of the other stories making headlines this morning. russian president vladimir putin is under pressure to call up more troops in his war of attrition on ukraine. it comes as western analysts say the kremlin is now losing more men on the battlefield than it can recruit to replace them. putin has so far dismissed the idea of mobilization, saying he wanted to use only those who were voluntarily signing military contracts. >> you know, we're going to be talking to richard haass in a bit about this, but, jonathan lemire, it is shocking. we often talk about the problems ukraine is having, but yesterday the number comes out, a million casualties in this war, killed or wounded, of russian soldiers.

i mean, this is what was supposed to be a three-day excursion to kyiv has turned into an epic national tragedy for ukraine, but also for the mothers and fathers of russia. >> yeah. a tragedy and a humiliation for vladimir putin. let's not -- it can't be said enough. i mean, yes, they still do control 15%, 20% of ukraine. the battle lines have largely frozen, but this has been a devastating blow to russia's military. its reputation, to be sure, and also its manpower and technology. that's why the biden administration has really seized on this argument. not a single american troop is deployed there in ukraine, fighting that conflict, this is one of the best investments the united states military has ever made. by supplying ukraine with both money and equipment and weapons, they've weakened russia's military where it'll take years upon years to recover. the justice department is suing the owner and operator of

the container ship that collapsed the francis scott key bridge last march. the legal claim asserts the company's actions leading up to the catastrophe were grossly negligent and reckless. citing poor maintenance and jerry-rigged fixes to serious problems aboard the ship. the incident killed six workers and paralyzed the port of baltimore for weeks. and "saturday night live" revealed some of its hosts for its upcoming 50th season. >> sam stein? >> jean smart will kick things off september 28th. alongside musical guest jelly roll. other hosts include arianna grande, john mulaney, and michael keaton, whose film "beetlejuice, beetlejuice," will be in theaters. >> jonathan lemire will be a

last-minute add. >> i'm a musical guest. >> listen, willie, to the crowds, what they do on "way too early." >> oh. >> the laughter. just the way he moves and paces himself through the scripts and the lines. he has the pregnant pauses, all very exciting. >> good stuff. >> the audience, you know, lorne michaels watching "way too early" is going, "who is that kid? i need him on my show." >> at some point, it is undeniable when you hear the reaction john gets from the crowds in the studio. not from the rich guys in the seats up front, but he really plays to the real folks who paid for the tickets up top. >> to the cheap seats. >> exactly. we have a lot more ahead. the latest on -- >> richard haass is coming. >> -- p. diddy. >> asking him about the giants. >> second day of attacks targeting hezbollah. what we're learning about the latest round of explosions across lebanon. this time, using walkie-talkies. plus, new reporting about how the trump campaign pushed the false claims about migrants eating pets. complete lies, even after being

told they were lies, untrue and baseless. >> the republican governor continues to tell them to stop, that they're lies. that we're going to bring in one of the reporters behind that story. also ahead, former secretary of state hillary clinton is our guest this morning. she's out with a new book, sharing her candid views on the state of our democracy. the threats we face and much more. you're watching "morning joe." we're back in 90 seconds. thursday night football on prime. it's on. the new england patriots take on the new york jets, as thursday night football is on. stream thursday night football. only on prime. if you have generalized myasthenia gravis, picture what life could look like with...

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a second wave of device explosions in lebanon has killed at least 32 people and injured thousands more. that's according to lebanon's health ministry. the country's telecommunications department said the exploding walkie-talkies were not purchased through an official distributor and were not licensed by the department. it came a day after hundreds of pagers belonging to hezbollah members detonated throughout the country, killing at least 12 people and hurting nearly 3,000 others. israel has not taken direct responsibility, but two u.s. officials told nbc news israel was behind the attack. let's bring in president emeritus of the council on foreign relations, richard haass. he's the author of "home and away," available on substack. and former supreme allied commander of nato, retired admiral james stavridis.

he is chief international analyst for nbc news. good to have you both with us. >> admiral, i'll start with you. i read yesterday, i believe it was in the "wall street journal," may have been in "the new york times," i'm a little older, and the crowd sizes and yelling, it distracts me here. there it was "the journal" or "the times," the headline was that what israel did with the pagers was a tactic and not a strategy. i couldn't disagree more. they have sent a clear, unmistakable message, not only to hezbollah. they sent it to hamas. they sent it to iran. we know where you are. we can get you wherever you are. you can never escape our reach. so back off. maybe they aren't saying that. they may just be saying, so die. i'm curious, though, admiral, what your thought is. not just on the military brilliance of their operation,

according to many in the military community, but also the long-term impact of what they're doing here. >> i think it is both tactic and strategic effect they're seeking here. joe, you're absolutely right. i think there are really four audiences. you hit them. i'll add a thread to each. certainly, hezbollah. i mean, do you want to make up this morning working in the hezbollah i.t. department, whatever that looks like? i think it is going to be hard to continue employment there or to get others to come in there. also, yeah, we're all seized with the bang technology of this. it's the supply chains. it's the way the israelis were able to get into the global supply chains and go after these devices. so you're hezbollah. what else have they gotten themselves into? there's a hezbollah audience that's tactical. israel gets a morale boost out of this thing. the u.s., all of us, are talking

about it this morning. it brings back the conversation. and, above all, the signal, my view, here's the strategic piece, is to iran. you go back six weeks ago. the israelis in another incredible intelligence, military, kinetic operation, kill the hamas leader. where? in tehran, at the presidential inauguration. it's the equivalent of a burglar coming into your house and taking you out when you have no idea it's coming. it's a multi-pronged audience. it is tactical. look what we can do. it's also, in my view, quite strategic. it's a warning signal. i don't think it is a prequel to a big attack. i think it is a signal it a this point. pretty effective one strategically in my view. >> above the fold this morning in "the new york times," for militants, toll is mental and physical. for hezbollah, as a practical

matter, they've lost a ton of people from their terrorist organization the last two days. the mental impact, which is what joe and the admiral were just talking about, which is the knowledge that israel can find them and get to them wherever they are. what do you make of what we've seen in the last couple of days? >> all true, but let's take a step back. what are the israelis trying to accomplish? toward what end? what is the definition of success here? i question this a little bit. slight disagreement, perhaps, with both the admiral and with joe. israel has around 60,000 citizens who were moved back from the border with lebanon after october 7th. they didn't want hezbollah to accomplish what hamas accomplished in other parts of israel. it's become an imperative, politically, strategically, for people to go back. does this advance the goal? not obvious to me. is this a prequel to a larger war? does israel want a larger war with hezbollah right now, given hezbollah's massive rocket and missile force? that could have an impact

throughout much of israel's city. >> so, richard, what is the response, though, to hezbollah and the rockets and the missiles that continue to rain down on israel and basically forced israel to evacuate the north? what's response there? >> joe, again -- >> they don't want their people being killed by rockets and missiles, which hezbollah fires endlessly. >> they were more worried, actually, that there would be hamas-like physical, ground invasion, more than the rockets and missiles. the rockets and missiles aren't anything new. the question is whether israel and hezbollah can work out an arrangement. where hezbollah pulls back north of the latani river, and the israelis can move back to the north of their country. can that work out? this could be a prelude to that, and that'd be great.

essentially, this gets hezbollah to pull back from the brink. you could have not a peace but an arrangement between the two. there's also quite a possibility that we're expanded military operation here. i'm not sure at what point exchanges and conflict slip over the line into war, but i wouldn't rule it out. israel is winding down what it is doing in gaza. not ending it but winding it down. it frees up the israeli military to pivot and focus on the north. i'm not sitting here sangin that israel and hezbollah can manage out this plays out from here on in. let's move to russia. we talked about it before you guys got on the show. vladimir putin has to deal with a million casualties. a million casualties on his side. again, while, you know, analysts may say he is coldhearted and doesn't care, there are a lot of mothers and fathers that do. when you talk about a million

casualties in a war that was supposed to be over in three days, at some point, shouldn't that, richard, move vladimir putin and perhaps the ukrainians to the negotiating table? >> i hope so. the million casualies between ukraine and russia are enormous. you know, well over 100,000 dead. the economic costs are enormous. what i'm hoping is the combination of the pain of the war to russia and, increasingly, that ukraine can bring more pain with missile and drone attacks inside. russia is not just meeting it out but also paying a price for its war. what i'm hoping, joe, is that putin reluctantly comes to the perspective that time is not necessarily his friend. but that's going to require that the united states and europe make clear that they are prepared to support ukraine materially, militarily down the road. obviously, you know, the

republicans in the house open that question mark several months ago. that's where our election becomes so critical. putin has to be convinced that the west has staying power, has legs for this war. if that happens, and another big if, ukraine is prepared to compromise, not on the long-term goals but its willingness to accept some type of an armistice or cease-fire, in 2025, more likely 2026, we can begin to see the table being set for diplomacy. it is going to take a realization on the russian side that they can't achieve militarily over time what they've set out to do. >> that is a staggering number. one million dead, admiral, dead or injured in the russia-ukraine war, reported by "the wall street journal." is there a point at which vladimir putin says, enough is enough, or will he just be at this until he gets what he thinks, perhaps what he thought he'd get a couple years ago when he launched this attack on ukraine? >> first, let's do the numbers. russia has a population pre-war

of about 145 million. half are men. putin is only using men in this war. let's say he starts out with 74 million, 75 million men. a million casualties. here's another staggering figure. estimates between 500,000 and 800,000 young russian males have left the country in order to avoid the draft. so this is bigger than just the casualties. it's the brain drain. because the ones who are leaving are the internet-savvy ones with enough rubles in their pockets to make it to kazakhstan. many have gone to germany, for example. it's a real blow to the heart of russia's demographics. and to answer your question, yes, i think that light is going to go on. i think post u.s. election, because both sides are going to want to see what kind of a deal

are we going to get here. but the burn rate, frankly on both sides of the line, is very significant. putin is burning through troops, as we've been discussing. zelenskyy also burning a lot of troops but also burning through western support. how long will the money keep flowing? both sides have a bad burn rate, and i think that drives us toward a negotiation. next year, probably in my view, the ending of this thing could look, and you're showing a map now, right there, right what you're seeing now. a korean war-like ending. putin still in control. a quid pro quo, however, is the rest of ukraine sails on, democratic, free, has a pretty good shot of coming into nato and coming into the eu. that's not a terrible outcome. i think that's probably how it lands because of these casualty rates. >> let's show that map one more time, t.j., if we can.

as the admiral said, unless something really dramatic happens, that's probably how the map looks when they sit down for a deal. maybe not. maybe it's dramatically shifted one way or the other. but this is a year and a half ago, this is what the pentagon said that this map was going to look like a year from now. they were saying then, this is a war of attrition. a world war i style war. they didn't see the lines moving much, and they were exactly right. it would beg the question, how many more years of bloodshed do both sides want until there is a solution that, again, will give ukraine long-term assurances of western support, of if not a

nato membership, a quasi nato membership. >> james stavridis and richard haass, thank you both very much for coming on this morning. we appreciate it. now to former president trump, who held a rally on long island, new york, yesterday, where he continued to push lies about haitian migrants in springfield, ohio. just flagrant lies, out loud. trump told the crowd he plans to travel soon to springfield, as well as to aurora, colorado. take a listen to some of his remarks. >> how about in springfield, ohio? they had 32,000. this is a little, beautiful town. no crime, no problem. 32,000 illegal immigrants come into the town, 32. they almost double their population in a period of a few weeks. can you believe it? you know what? they've got to get much tougher.

i'm going to go there in the next few weeks. i'm going to springfield, and i'm going to aurora. [ applause ] you may never see me again, but that's okay. got to do what i have to do. whatever happened to trump? well, he never got out of springfield. >> that's just not -- >> here's "the wall street journal" front page. told the pet eating story was untrue, trump team spread it in anyway. >> yeah. we have the reporter on. >> the subhead here is, "springfield, ohio, officials inform vance's staff that rumors were baseless. it did not matter, and now the town is in chaos." >> national reporter at "the wall street journal," valerie borline. she has new reporting on the trump campaign, that they were told the rumors from springfield were not true, but still pushed them. if you could bring us inside

this lie, what's shocking to me is that it continues with wild abandon, with no shame. is it the press is -- >> she reported on the story. >> what's inside your reporting? how did this come to be? >> the former president said there are 32,000 migrants in springfield. governor dewine and the mayor says 15,000 haitians moved there in the last four years. legally, almost all of them legally. as we know, there has been a massive humanitarian crisis in haiti. actually, what we found is they've been welcomed to springfield with open arms. there was a labor crunch, like so many places during the pandemic, so the haitians have been -- the community of haitians have been in the small town of about 60,000 people. it's created a lot of pressure in the community, as it would with a lot of new people.

we just found no truth to the idea that they're there illegally or that there's any issues around the community, you know, eating people's pets, which is a serious claim to make. >> what are you finding in terms of what the campaign strategy is? i think what i was getting at, i appreciate this is on the front page of your paper and that you're reporting on it, but it doesn't stick. like, usually, i don't know, in decades past, in the good old days, if a campaign was called out, if a candidate was called out for lying in a cruel way, it would be something that stopped it in its tracks and created an investigation, an interesting implication. yet, here, it continues. >> you know, it really does. we heard what the president said. also yesterday morning, after the story appeared, jd vance, who had originally tweeted about

this issue, said, "well, i choose to believe the stories are true." you know, we went there. we talked to people. we asked the police department for all of their records. the sheriff's office, the state wildlife division. there were no reports this was happening. so it is, you know, in journalism, it is discouraging that we are trying to vet these claims in good faith and they don't matter. i'm sure your inbox is interesting. my inbox says, you're all not doing your job. i don't know if our reporting just doesn't break through sometimes. >> you're right. jd vance, that's his reflex immediately. the media won't cover this story, won't fact-check it. they've been fact-checking it since the beginning. you're on the ground fact-checking it now. to get to the core of your reporting this morning, the front page of the "wall street journal," the vance team and the trump campaign have pointed to this police report. they said it showed a neighbor

in springfield, a woman had reported her pet missing and suspected it might have been taken by a haitian immigrant. what happened from there? >> well, you know, we -- the campaign has said they had demonstrable evidence that these pet kidnappings were happening, and they provided a document. we went to the home of the woman who reported her cat missing, and she was very apologetic. she found the cat missing five days later. it was in her basement, ms. sassy. she used her phone and daughter to go next door to apologize to the haitians living next door. she had a trump t-shirt and poster. she was apologetic that she was mistaken and had helped originate some of the claims, but she still supports the former president very strongly, as do many people who live there. >> ms. sassy, to underline, was in the basement and not eaten by the haitian member? >> you know, we live in a world

where they call it viral for a reason. these stories spread quickly. ms. kilgore, the owner of the cat, posted on a small, private springfield group on facebook, and it gets to the wider world. once the things start spreading, it is like a virus. it is hard to find the origin or also to tamp it down. >> wow. >> the impact on springfield writ large. i mean, there have been schools that have been closed. there has been bomb threats made against city hall, against hospitals. and now, donald trump suggests that in two weeks' time, he may go to springfield. what is the level of concern there about people who just feel like life is not going to return to normal? >> it's been a difficult time in springfield. i think one of the things that's poignant about this story is springfield is america, right? i think there's 46 springfields in this country. springfield is the home of "the

simpsons," of "father knows best," and of america. it's republican. the governor is republican. jd vance is from a town an hour away. they know each other. they're like, hey, this isn't happening here, but what is happening is we're having to close the schools. city hall is on lockdown. we've had to close the dmv, all these places, because of these rumors, fear, and bomb threats. but, you know, really, people we talk to said they felt like they were under siege by a lie, really. >> all because ms. sassy was in the basement and not eaten by haitian immigrants. literally, literally, that started it. and donald trump and jd vance are centering their campaign, the final stretch of their campaign, on a lie about a cat that got downstairs. >> despite this great reporting and the reporting of many others, it continues, which is

staggering. we're in a different time. that's for sure. dangerous one. "the wall street journal"'s valley bauerlein, thank you for your great reporting and analysis. >> great reporting, valerie. thank you. >> appreciate it. coming up, a judge denied a bail request for music mogul p diddy. we have the latest on the mounting allegations against the hip hop star. attorney maya wiley will join us to weigh in on the case. first, i'd like to take a moment to remember someone who is extremely special to me. to all of us here at "morning joe." especially members of the know your value team. the vice president of global medical and strategic initiatives at comcast nbc universal, vicki neidigh lost a courageous, five-year battle to cancer yesterday morning. vickie is the reason know your value is a huge part of not just "morning joe" but comcast initiatives.

more than a decade ago, vicky believed in me and what i was creating with the know your value mission, to help everyone recognize and be recognized for their personal and professional value, from the very start. vicki forged the comcast know your value partnership, because it was who she was. someone who cares that everybody is getting what they need when they need it. if someone on the "morning joe" staff looked a little down or off, it would be vicki who would go right up to him or her, pull her aside and say, "what's going on?" if it was a health problem of any kind, she would light a fire under all the resources this company has to offer and cut through all the paperwork and get things done. she would stay on it for months and months to make sure that person was okay. she stood up for causes and individual people. the know your value team loved her so much, we even surprised her at one of our company events, declaring it

vicki neidigh day. she was mad at me for that. we are sending prayers and comfort for all who knew and loved vicky, especially her children, her family, her work family. her daughter, julia, continues to work for this company at nbc sports, advancing her mother's leadership. we're proud of her. she was 64 years old.

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diddy combs will not be released on bail. diddy's legal team appealed for his pretrial freedom, from what they call horrific jail conditions, after the first judge determined he should be detained while awaiting trial. the government argued combs is a threat to the community base on allegations of violent acts detailed in the indictment and a flight risk because of his immense wealth.

combs' legal team asked the judge whether he'd consider a transfer from a detention center in brooklyn to a facility in new jersey. the judge asked the defense to file on the question of location by monday. a hearing on the status of the case is set for october 9th. joining us now, president and ceo of the leadership conference on civil and human rights, attorney maya wiley. she's author of new memoir, "remember, you are a wiley." we will get to the book in a moment. maya, thanks so much for being here. let's start with these allegations. you and i were just discussing, once this indictment was open, to read through the details, it truly, truly turns your stomach, if this is true. he's pleaded not guilty to the charges. what else should people watching know about this case this morning and about how long this went on, as well? >> yeah. sadly, and disgustingly, when we read this indictment, it's that powerful people get to be

predators for a very long time because their wealth, their position enables them to protect themselves from the law in ways that neither you nor i could. but this is the point. i mean, when you read -- it's not just reading that indictment. we saw the video tape of cassandra ventura being viciously beaten by sean combs in a hallway. these are very consistent with the allegations that are in the indictment. but it's no surprise then that he was denied bail. it was the right thing to do in this case because, as prosecutors had shown, he has also threatened witnesses. in addition to having the money and the power to flee, it is also that he has the power and the resources to intimidate witnesses that might appear against him in court. and there was a case in which that very thing happened. a witness changed her tune of after getting 54 phone calls,

threatening phone calls from him, according to prosecutors. she changed her tune when she had been corroborating another band member of hers who claimed she had been groped and mistreated by combs. so the pattern of behavior, not just in the allegations but in allegations from others, what we know and what we've seen that's already in the public sphere, and the fact that he has an incredible empire, i think that's the point. he has an empire, and that empire can be used to protect him from very serious claims. >> we ask ourselves, how did this go on, allegedly, for so long, it's exactly what you say. it's money, intimidation, fear. people didn't want to speak out. sometimes, as we've seen in all these cases over these last several years, it takes one courageous person to come out and say, i've got to say something. there has to be more like me. when the video came out, his ex-girlfriend beaten inside a hotel, that changed everything here. >> well, also, her lawsuit. >> yeah.

>> i mean, to your point about bravery. if you have been beaten and abused for years and have seen the power that protects that abuse, it's very brave even just to file a civil complaint because you know the money, the resources, the p.r. machinery that's going to come and attack you. remember, sean combs settled that case very, very quickly. but it was one of those dam-breaking episodes that also helps other women come forward. when one woman comes forward, it often does what we've seen it do here, is others come forward, too. >> so what is combs facing here in terms of potential penalties, jail time, if this is prove in a court of law, what is he looking at here? >> look, you know, these are very serious charges. remember, it's sex trafficking and racketeering. there are many, many counts here. if he's convicted of all of them, he could be going away for

a very long time. >> it would seem so. we'll keep a close eye on that. want to turn to the book. it is a memoir titled, "remember, you are a wiley." it's a long time coming. these are never easy, to pour everything out onto the page. let's start with the title. where's it come from? >> i will try not to cry. >> it's okay. whatever you need to do. >> thank you for the kind words. "remember, you are a wiley," it's what my grandfather, my father's mother, would say to her six black children when they would leave her doorway every day and go out into a white world that was also a racist world, but one in which they were, as a very religious family, my grandparents were very religious, had every expectation that their children would not only have confidence and pride in themselves, but would ensure that how they showed up in public carried that name with pride. also, made sure they stayed within the values and the

principles of the family. you know, that they did right. that they didn't do wrong. that they behaved and brought pride to the family. it was something that even my cousins, my generation, you know, reverberates through all of us. i think, for me, it was the constant call of, how do i do this? how do we do this? what kind of conversations should we be having with each other, willie, about what it means in a society that's descending into the depths of deep, overt racism again? how do we show up? >> you clearly carry that inspiration with you through your life, rising to become a prominent attorney yourself, all the things you've done. we've been lucky to get to you know on set over the years. how did this stick in the back of your mind as you continued your rise? >> you know, there's so many moments, and they're in the book. i mean, it's as much a book about my parents as well as me. they so shaped me.

they so shaped in their own activism and as civil rights activists how you show up. you know, part of what was always in the back of my mind is, they always believed in both pushing as hard as you can for justice, for what was right, for being bold, for thinking that you can end poverty, and knowing that you should try. whether you can or not. it's that second point, whether you can or not. you know, my father was once asked by a friend of his, this has always stuck with me, whose friend said, "george, when do you stop? when do you stop?" he said, "when there's no more people who are hungry and poor." she said to him, "well, there's always going to be hungry and poor people." his answer was, "then you never stop." that was the point. the fight itself was worth fighting. you are going to do something. you were going to do it for someone if you just kept doing it. it was that kind of, you know,

determination. they also did it with incredible compassion. you know, they could be militant. they were very radical in their day, right? they were calling for real change. they wanted to put money in the pockets of black women on welfare. they wanted multiracial coalition building. they wanted to end poverty, end war. they wanted all these things. at the same time, they actually believed deeply in conversation. they believed deeply in building the tent. they believed deeply that we had to be able to have these relationships, even when we disagree. they really demonstrated that compassion, and that you could be an activist and be a compassionate activist. that's really what always stuck with me. how not to -- we're allowed to be angry, and we have a right to be angry, but anger isn't about abusing another person or denying the possibility of reaching another person. >> joe? >> you know, maya, you say

something that really, really touches me, because i can relate to it so well. here, you have a family from the north, a family of faith, very progressive. i was raised in a family in the deep south, very religious. very conservative. yet, the message that i got from my family, you know, was, you know, remember, you are a wiley, they didn't say, remember you're a scarborough, or remember you're a clark, but remember that you are jewel's grandson. my grandmother who raised four children in extreme poverty in rural georgia. my mother always said, she had one dress, but that dress was always washed every day. always ironed when she walked off to school. and this is such an important message for our children.

our children go through these problems, and i have a very close friend that reminded me of this. when i was saying, well, i'm having this problem, you know, what do we do? said, remind them that your family, and remind them that jewel lived by a set of values. show respect to others. be polite to others. forgive others. be grateful for all god has given you. i will tell you, kids respond to that. you are a wiley, what a powerful message. instead of us just putting pictures of our kids up all over the house, saying, yay, here's your participation trophy, you know, we have pictures of jewel in front of a shack in our house from 1911. i know you have the same thing. that is such an important message, isn't it? it's a message we need to send to our kids. remember who you are.

>> joe, thank you for sharing that. it's so important. the word i want to lift out that you said was gratitude. you know, my parents mostly, but my mother was white and grew up in racist west texas, so i know exactly what you're talking about. how you actually try to cross that bridge of racial divide, of recognizing that that very poverty that your family experienced, joe, and that so many black families were experiencing was exactly the bridge my father was also trying to build. but confronting race. the word, gratitude, was such an important part of my parents' training of me, thinking of what it meant to be a wiley. if we aren't grateful for what we have, it is very hard to find the compassion to try to reach across and understand and move others. i have found an incredibly important word and value in my

own upbringing. >> the memoir is entitled "remember, you are a wiley." maya wiley, thank you very much for sharing it with us. congratulations on the book. >> congrats, maya. >> thank you for coming on the show. >> thank you. four minutes past the top of the hour. donald trump returned to his original home state last night, new york, for a rally in nassau county on long island. >> it's because it hasn't been done in many decades. it hasn't been done for a long time. but we are going to win new york. [ applause ] for every new yorker terrorized by this wave of migrant crime, november 5th will be your liberation day. it's going to be liberation. because you are living like hell. you're living a life like hell. vote for donald trump. what the hell do you have to lose? what do you have to lose? i call up my wife.

i say, "baby, who could draw crowds? nobody can draw crowds like me. nobody, not even close. i'm the greatest of all time, maybe greater even than elvis. because elvis had a guitar. i don't have a guitar. elvis had a guitar. i don't have the privilege of a guitar." but i'd say, "baby, who can do it like me? nobody can do it like me. how great am i?" >> yeah. that was a lot. >> he's running for president. if you can believe it, there are people, like, probably about 75, 80 million people that are going to vote for him. it is something, isn't it, america 2024? jonathan lemire, i hate to get in elvis' way here and be so

meddlesome as to deal with the stubborn facts, but he talks about a migrant crime wave and says, "you're living a life like hell." >> hmm. >> bears repeating that if violent crime continues to drop as rapidly as it has dropped throughout this year, we will have the lowest murder rates since 1950. violent crime and other crimes continue to drop. and this is, i guess, the most troubling thing for elvis. he keeps talking about migrant crime. study after study after study after study has shown, year after year after year, that migrant crime rates are lower than crime rates by nnative-bor americans.

this is like saying the sun rises in the east and sets in the west. like, the earth is round. these are data points, undeniable data points. yet, donald trump goes, he just lies. i'm not going to say alternative facts. he just lies. we just saw with the reporter from "the wall street journal" talking about how a cat wanders downstairs into the basement, its owner calls the cops and says she fear that is a haitian kidnapped and i think ate the cat, right? then we find out that ms. sassy was downstairs for five days. then the entire town is shut down because of it. vance is told it's a lie. trump is told it's a lie. the campaign is told it's a lie.

the governor, republican governor who used to be a republican senator, extremely popular republican governor, says it's a lie. says they need to stop it. they continue. there's a campaign of lies. yet, you have people in the mainstream media and, of course, people on the trump right and people that write newsletters, who claim to be down the middle, who are flattening this all out. whether you talk about, you know, what he did at arlington or the debate, or you talk about this cat lie, there are now people in mainstream media going, oh, this is three dimensional. people writing newsletters, oh, this is three-dimensional chess. you know? trend lines for the polls don't suggest that any of this is helping donald trump right now. >> ms. sassy was downstairs all along. feels like the opening long of a book about this campaign. >> yeah. >> let's take on two things.

first, try to answer the question, why is trump campaigning in new york state? despite what he is saying, he is not going to win new york state. he lost badly there in 2016, 2020, and will again. but the campaign admits they give him feel-good campaigns to pump him up. suburban long island is more republican than people think. he's not going to win the state, but certainly that made him feel better. certainly, there are congressional races out there that do matter. the battle for the house will be close. new york state, as it was in 2022, will play a decisive roll this time around, as well. but i also think, joe and mika, that, like, it points to a little of trump frustration. his whole campaign is based on the two is, inflation and immigration. we see, as you pointed out, joe, the facts are not within immigration, particularly, the claims of migrant crime. he's simply lying. also, the border crossings have really come down. let's remember, of course, it was donald trump who told republicans to kill that tough

and gop-authored immigration bill so he can keep it as a campaign issue. that's not working as he would have liked. with inflation, as well, yes, costs are still high. americans aren't thrilled. we see every single trend saying they're coming down. the economy is improving. we had the rate cut yesterday. i think you're seeing even a more scattered approach from trump, which is what we often see, guys, when he knows he's in a bind. >> well, yeah. i mean, this all came after he lost the debate. joining the conversation, we have the host of the podcast "on brand with donny deutsch," donny deutsch. and senior business analyst and host of "the 11th hour," stephanie ruhle joins us. and democratic candidate for new york's first u.s. congressional district, john avalon. good to have you all with us this morning. donny, i want you to give us your thoughts on these baseless lies that they keep promulgate ing. i think at a different time, the

lies would be called out, an apology would be issued, and hopefully life would go on in a safer way. but, no, they double down and continue. what's going on? >> i think history is going to be very focused on the eating of the cats and dogs and the pets. because it is one statement that encompasses everything that is wrong with donald trump. first of all, it is an absolute lie. second of all, it is racist. third of all, it is insane. fourth, it's, you know, hate mongering. it is everything -- >> hey, donny, donny, what about your friends? what about your friends that you talk about all the time and people i know, my friends, who see this lie, who know it's a lie, who probably know what the reporter just said. they're going to find out that ms. sassy the cat that started all of this was not eaten by a haitian in a voodoo ceremony but, in fact, wandered downstairs and was in the basement. what do they say? they're still going to vote for this guy who, again, can't even

remember the crowd at his debate? we could go on and on. >> i'll tell ya -- >> what's the justification for what jon meacham would call the peter millar, vest-wearing clubhouse crowd? >> what is interesting, it does shut them up. i mean, it really -- it is one statement where they go, homina homina homina. >> but it doesn't change how they vote. >> we've talked about this ad nauseam. those are the people that make my stomach turn. they know better. it's an extra dollar in nare their pocket. they hind behind other issues. nothing is going to turn them. these are people that i know, that i live amongst, and it's been an issue. it's been a social issue. >> i'm sure you and i have the same conversations with similar people. you go, honestly, in good faith, tell me. they go, corporate tax rates going to go down. deregulation. >> can we stop with

deregulation? >> i'm not telling you anything you don't know. >> trust me, that's what i hear every day. guess what? if you run a giant business, you're like, yeah, i don't want the regulators on my ass. for the everyday, average person, this idea, i want no regulation, we don't want cumbersome, stupid regulation. if you're wondering, what's one of the main reasons we were hit with the financial crisis in '08, lack of good regulation. lack of smart regulation. so this idea, i don't want regulation, smart regulation is what protects us. you want donald trump back? great. we'll bring the payday lenders back, the predatory lending, which preys upon the most vulnerable people. the other thing that donny didn't say that was the dogs and the cats, it's strategically stupid. immigration could be a winning issue for donald trump if he played it correctly. but he doesn't! right. >> we do have a capacity problem. we do have an issue in this country that has to be solved for. he hasn't adjusted one bit.

we're tangled in what exactly happened with ms. sassy? by the way, great cat name. >> great cat name. >> do you know the stack of papers i get as backup to my goldman sachs statement, and someone was complaining about that. that's the problem with regulation. >> how long the cvs receipt is. >> highly relatable, right? >> you're seeing this inside your own campaign. >> yeah. >> against the trump-backed candidate who was at the rally last night. >> he was. proudly saying he was the first purple state district candidate to endorse donald trump. >> what are the conversations like for people who haven't been following your race closely, what is the debate? what's at the center of your campaign right now? >> affordability, abortion rights, border security. but here's the deal, i think people are starting to get a sense, you talk to folks in diners, that the economy is starting to improve. they understand a lot is fear mongering over fears. they're offended that someone like donald trump took away a right, right? a guy like nick calota cheered

the overturning of roe v. wade. it's not common sense. state and local tax deduction, trump flip-flopped in a total pander. it's thousands of dollars in pockets every year. now, trump is doing the arsonist pretending to be a firefighter. >> do people believe it? beyond the rally, they know who put the salt cap in. it was a huge issue for new yorkers. >> it is a huge issue. democrats have pledged to restore it. republicans have said that it's never coming back. to that extent, it is the most consequential economic election we'll have. look, the act is getting old. we're in swollen elvis stage here, all talking about himself. the local republicans kissed the ring, but they were mentioned 40 minutes in by donald trump. it's not about them, not the people in the crowds. you talk to folks. they'll say even in the redder districts, they have half the number of trump signs they did

four years ago. and trump won suffolk county by 232 votes in 2020, a decline. keep an eye on that. >> joe? >> yeah, you know, i am curious, though, what headwinds are you facing, john, when you are campaigning, when you're knocking on doors, when you're going for -- i'll be honest, i mean, to me, it seems like it'd be pretty damn easy to run as a democrat this year with the economy the way it is. like, there's not one person you can't go to that, you know, is calling kamala harris a socialist. you can't say, yeah, and how much richer have you gotten over the past four years under joe biden and kamala harris? immigration, illegal immigration down, inflation down, interest rates down, gas prices down,

crime down. you go on and on and on and on, the record is a pretty damn strong record to run on, isn't it? >> the record is strong, but the resonance isn't real for a lot of folks. people are feeling the economy, but independent voters, more registered independent voters in new york's first district than any other district in new york state, they are really pissed at democrats for their perception that they haven't secured the border. there's concern about crime and disorder, particularly in new york city. that's a burden for democrats that you have to lean into, which is why i say, i would have voted for the bipartisan border security bill day one. my opponent helped trump kill it. it would have not only increased the number of border agents but would have stopped the flow of fentanyl, which is a huge issue people feel. 20 times more people killed by fentanyl poisonings in 2023 than were murdered in suffolk county. we have to show we can be tough and get it done while republicans skip votes. they can't even keep the

government open. my opponent was kissing trump's ring. showing you can be tough on the border and get it done, trump killed the bill. we'll pass it. >> another factor, steph, is the rate cut yesterday by the fed. some thought it'd be a quarter of a point, but it was a half. another half by the end of the year. you'll get a full point cut in four months. what's it mean for the economy? >> it is a human positive. if you need a mortgage, if you're looking at your credit card, what you pay on the rate, it is a positive. for people saying it was a boost for kamala harris, hyper political, if it was, which it wasn't, remember, jay powell was appointed by donald trump. the decisions are made by all of the fed governors, not even jay powell. if it were hyper political, they would have done it in june. it takes time for the rate cut

to make its way through the system. to the point john was making, yes, joe is right, the data is there, but people certainly aren't feeling it yet. inflation is down, but don't ask them what their rent is or their mortgage or their car insurance. it's brutal. that's what people are concerned about. it takes time for that to work through the system. >> this is a decades' long issue, right? what is pissing people off is the middle class squeeze going on for decades. >> it's real. >> we have to rebuild the middle of the economy and politics. also, the opportunity election is also to bring in more republicans. that's the validater, right? we saw this in the democratic convention. today, we're announcing republicans for avalon with adam kinzinger's co-chairing. it's that reaching out that i think people are hungry for. making sure they realize rebuilding the middle class has to be job one. >> you should run for office. >> maybe suffolk county. it shows, one more time, on trump, trump's state on inflation and prices was the kitchen table issue, and he can't do it. it's cats and dogs.

>> donny, i said it'd be easy to run as a democrat. i have to say, if donald trump were running as a republican, and i'm dead serious, like, see what john thune is saying, right? when he goes and speaks on the stump, if you talk about the economy, if you talk about what prices were a decade ago, five years ago, talk about how hard it is for young people to get houses. you can't really talk about crime because it's gone down. i wouldn't talk for immigration, but for the fact that donald trump killed the immigration bill, killed the toughest border security bill ever. i mean, you know, john, it seems that, you know, as a former republican, one day, republicans may learn that the best tact is

to run as republicans. >> what a thought. >> instead of trumpists. when you run as a trump republican, well, you lose. >> yeah. and they're going to drag them all down. that's why i think the larger opportunity of this election is to build that broad, patriotic coalition to say, stop, let's restore some sanity. more common ground, less chaos. and because what trumpism represents is the opposite of what folks who are trump or reagan republicans believe. they have to give hope we can restore sanity on the other side of this. >> right. right. stephanie, just really quickly, out of left field a little bit, but what is this obsession with women with no kids? childless women, from cat ladies to sarah huckabee sanders getting on stage and actually using that in an attack on kamala harris. >> it's absolutely moronic. it makes no sense, right? so right now, you have less than 50 days to go before the election. you're donald trump or you're kamala harris. you need to focus on how am i

going to get other people who aren't currently on board on board to vote for me? sarah huckabee sanders on stage with this thinly veiled nonsense, going after kamala harris for being a stepmother, not a mother. we saw second gentleman doug emhoff last night come out, you know, with a fantastic, strong response. but how ridiculous! we shouldn't even be talking about this. the majority of the american people don't actually care how sarah huckabee sanders or donald trump feels about these issues. the majority of the american people want to be physically safe, socially free, and financially secure. how about any of these republicans talking about that? sarah huckabee sanders wasted a chance on stage to talk about issues. >> i want to see the memo in the rnc which is, let's go after women who don't have children. ah, that's the winning formula. >> mika, what woman out there sees that, who wasn't sure who they were going to vote for, who was thinking they weren't inspired, going, you know what? that's my girl, and trump is my guy. >> yeah. >> what person do they pull in

two nights ago? >> yeah, or expand the child tax credit. take your choice. >> i mean -- >> politic of subtraction. >> and women who can't have children. you have women who chose their career and later may have regretted that. you have women caught in the middle. >> women who don't want kids. >> women who don't want children. women who haven't ever found the right person. on and on. >> none of this is good. >> women know how complicated life is out there. i do want to have you all respond to doug emhoff. who pushed back hard on sarah huckabee sanders. now, i wonder, would you all rather me read it from ""the daily beast" here" or watch doug say it? go doug. >> women in this country are sick and tired of weak men trying to take away their

fundamental rights! [ applause ] and then, and then gaslight you about it. we're sick and tired of it. and the women of this country will never humble themselves before donald trump. you know, the latest hit on kamala. did you see what they said in this is unbelievable. somehow, because cole and ella aren't kamala's quote, unquote, biological children, that she doesn't have anything in her life to keep her humble. as if keeping women humble, whether you have children or not, is something we should strive for! it is not. but i'll tell you what, going back to that debate, kamala sure kept trump humble at that

debate, didn't she? because that's what this is really about. and there is nothing, there is nothing more important to me, kamala, and kirsten, than our kids. our big, beautiful, blended family. and we know that all parents, no matter how you become one, make the same sacrifices and revel in the same joys of raising children as any parent anywhere. >> yes! [ applause ] >> i mean, here you have a blended family. >> that was good. >> that's worked together extraordinarily well to raise their loving children. >> mm-hmm. >> and you actually have a governor of a state attacking somebody for having stepchildren. >> yeah. well, it says more about sarah huckabee sanders than it says anything about kamala harris. it says everything, actually,

you need to know. >> stephanie? >> i'd say, forget about core values. it's just strategically stupid. you have less than 50 days to go to make an argument to the american people, why to elect donald trump. you're wasting time with this women nonsense. it doesn't make her humble? when was the last time you heard the name donald trump and thought humble? actually talk to the american people about why they should vote for you, not this sideshow. >> i raised two children that are not mine biologically. the love is identical. it just shows the absolute ignorance and inhumanity. >> this is worse than strategy. this is cruelty, right? politicizing and demonizing families. this is something that should unite us, right? and putting forward a real pro-family agenda, which actually things like ivf, things like child tax credit, that's the right conversation to depot

depot lar -- de-polarize this. this is cruelty and politically stupid, but it is personality petty and cruel. >> joe, i'd remind sarah huckabee sanders, mary was a virgin. >> my god. >> okay. >> let's just end on that note, shall we? >> i don't know. >> stephanie ruhle, thank you so much. >> john avalon, thank you so much. >> for watching "the 11 hour." >> i want to go back to it, again, there are so many things done now that would have never been done before 2015. >> that should be destructive. >> so many things. >> to the campaigns. >> that are. again, here's the thing, we have evidence this doesn't work. we have evidence it didn't work in 2017. we have evidence it didn't work in 2018. when democrats picked up the most seats in donald trump's off year election, the most seats they've picked up since

watergate, since the post watergate debacle for republicans of 1974. in 2019, you actually had democrats winning southern governorships in kentucky and louisiana. in 2020, donald trump became the first president since herbert hoover to lose the white house, the senate, and the house in one term. then in 2022, the big red wave, it blew up. why did it blow up? because donald trump weighed in on primaries, and he got his appointed people who were election deniers, right-wing extremists, and people celebrating the end of roe, while donald trump was bragging that he terminated roe, all of that added up. so it would be different if they said, "well, you know, it works half the time, so we're going to

be horrid people. half the time, we'll insult people." but it doesn't work. it didn't work before donald trump. it worked for one night in 2016, and it hasn't worked since. i don't understand why the republican party, who desperately needs to figure out a way to win back middle america, why they keep going down this failed path. still ahead on "morning joe," we can ask that question to former secretary of state hillary clinton. she joins the conversation in just a few minutes. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back.

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former president trump held a campaign rally on long island in front of 60,000 people in nassau coliseum. tonight, the rest of the country found out new york is a lot more florida than you think. organizers say there were 60,000 online ticket requests. turns out, rudy giuliani just passed out with his head on the key board. but the rally at nassau coliseum was historic. last time was when president biden fought the lions in rome. >> ah. coming up, former secretary of state hillary clinton joins us in studio. we'll discuss the state of the 2024 race, running against donald trump, and her new book. "morning joe" is coming right back.

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nearly 66 million americans voted for a future where there are no ceilings on our dreams! [ applause ] and afterwards, we refused to give up on america. millions marched, many ran for office. we kept our eyes on the future. well, my friends, the future is

here! [ applause ] i wish my mother and kamala's mother could see us. they would say, "keep going! surely, keep going!" >> that was former secretary of state and 2016 democratic presidential nominee hillary clinton at last month's democratic national convention, referencing political trailblazers, shirley chism and ferraro. in her book entitled "something lost, something gained, reelections on life, love, and liberty." secretary clinton joins us now. great to have you on the show. congratulations on the book. >> thank you so much. it's great to be back.

>> madam secretary, first of all, any book that borrows a line from both sides now with joni mitchell, that's a good book. [ laughter ] i know already. but, you know, actually, i read something in the book, and, you know, instead of starting on politics or foreign politics, i want to start on the book. it reminds me, something i read reminds me of the first time i met you and president clinton and everybody else at the white house picnic. of course, we all ran against you. hillary is a marxist. bill is a marxist. everybody is a marxist. after the picnic, i was asked by a conservative radio show to come on and talk about how horrible you all were. what'd you think of the president? i was like, ah, breathes fire. what did you think about the vice president? breathes fire. then they laugh and go, what do you think about hillary? i go, she's a midwest methodist. their heads all exploded.

i said, you want me to tell you the truth? she's a midwest methodist. that's what i saw in talking to her. not a marxist but midwest methodist. and then i saw this in your book. you say, "my faith has sustained me, informed me, saved me. i don't know who i would be or where i would have ended up without it." you know, isn't it crazy, even with all the political divide, all the differences, that came through in you. for people who really know you, and i'd only met you for three minutes, but that faith, that came through even then. >> wow, joe. that's an amazing memory. i used to love those white house picnics and christmas parties, buzz at least for a couple of hours, everybody was talking to each other and having fun

together before they went back to their corners. you know, i write about my faith, my family, my friends, obviously my politics in this new book because i do think we've got to start looking at people as the whole beings that we are. certainly, my faith, as i say, has been critical. it's been key to who i am, how i think about my life, the kind of service that i believe in, and i really appreciate the old memory that you just shared. >> yeah. it really has always been disconcerting to my conservative friends, how much i loved you from the start. we have noticed, mika and i, you have an extraordinary, extraordinary amount of energy. and we both were really taken by your take on aging, which you

say borrows a lot from jane fonda. >> yeah. look, i am a big believer that, get up every day and live a life of joy, purpose, reaching out, spending time with people. i always -- you know, jane fonda looks amazing. i just saw a picture of her knocking on doors for the harris-walz campaign. you know, just literally delighting people who came to the door, and there she was. she is an inspiration to me. i really like the idea that you just keep going. you go from strength to strength. you're not the same person you were in your 20s, 40s, 60s. you're different, but you have an attitude that is built on everything that came before. if you take care of yourself and you bring some gratitude and joy into your life every day, you

have all kinds of, you know, good years ahead of you. >> a quote from hillary clinton in this book on aging, it's prophetic. "i don't feel old." i love that. you're doing all these things, from producing to you name it. when you were younger, did you -- when you were in your 20s, did you imagine having massive impact on the world over the age of 50, say? >> i really didn't, mika. i mean, you know, i had a very, you know, clear idea about what i wanted to do, which was largely be on to work for the children's defense fund, support the children, abused, neglected, children with disabilities, children in trouble. that was my motivation, in large measure because i think i was inspired by my mother. i write again about her because she is, like, with me, literally

every day. and i wanted to help people. i mean, in the chapter on faith, you know, i quote the old john wesley saying, you know, "do all the good you can." that's how i was raised. that's what i learned in my home. that's what i learned in my church. that's what my best teachers when i was growing up expected of me and the other kids. so it was a different time. i miss it, to some extent. i miss the idea that, you know, children deserve our support, but they also need to be given a chance to do something for other people. as you know from the book, i write about how kids are now so obsessed and addicted to screens, that they're missing out on a lot of the day-to-day interaction that helps make you who you are as a person. >> secretary clinton, you also write about the state of our

politics quite a bit in the book and your reaction to some of the things you've seen over the last few years. thinking about this campaign right now, we actually had a clip from you as you were recording your audiobook that we played last week when this change came at the top of the democratic ticket and your reaction to it. there was consternation ahead of time about whether joe biden should stay or go. when he made the announcement, you and president clinton stepped very quickly into the gap and said, we endorse kamala harris. this is a good thing for the party. tell me about your thinking before and after. did you think before the president made that decision to step aside that that was the right thing to do? >> well, like many people, you know, wanted the president to make the decision that was right for him and right for the country, which he did. i've said before, it was a really selfless act of patriotism. i can't imagine the candidate on the other side giving up power under any circumstance.

president biden did. and he immediately endorsed his vice president. then bill and i absolutely moved quickly to endorse kamala, as well. we did it for a couple of reasons. one, i've known her for a number of years. i am a fan of hers. i think she has handled herself extremely well during the vice president position, during covid, in tough circumstances. it was a tough job being vice president under any presidency, no matter what's happening in the country. i had a lot of confidence in her political touch and feel. i also thought it was better for the party and the country that we get behind president biden's endorsement of her. you know, people who talked about, let's have a contested convention, let's have some sort of contest and, you know, six weeks, i think underestimated what chaos would have done to

that presidential campaign and to the prospects for the democrats. but in any event, she rose to the occasion. she's run a flawless campaign ever since she got into it. we talked to her literally right after the president decided to step aside. i have been incredibly impressed and delighted to see the country meeting her, to see how people are responding to her, and to see the joy. you know, when i was talking to joe and mika just a minute ago, i mean, look, life is hard. politics is really brutal. it's a contact sport. and to think that the other side in this campaign wants people to be afraid and filled with a con think that the other side in this campaign wants people to be afraid and filled with anger and hatred, and trying to hurt other people, it's so terrible and so

un-american, and now we have with, you know, kamala harris and tim walz, two happy warriors, two people who will fight for us, who will work for us, and don't want us to hate each other. they want us actually to find some common ground. >> so what is your assessment of the stakes of this election? >> yeah. >> you are in a very exclusive club of people who have ever run for president, let alone run against donald trump. so to what extent do you offer counsel or speak with kamala harris about how to run against donald trump? >> yeah. >> who as you've said is a different candidate now, a darker candidate arguably than he was in 2016. >> right. that's absolutely true, willie. i've talked with kamala a few times. i've talked with her before the debate because he is more incoherent. he is angrier. he is lashing out all the time at everybody. he's filmed with grievance and

rage, and, you know, in my acceptance speech at the convention way back in 2016, i said, you know, you can't trust somebody with nuclear weapons who you can bait with a tweet because i saw that in him at the time. a lot of people didn't or they gave him the benefit of the doubt, or they thought, hey you know, we have had two terms of a democrat. let's try the republicans, for whatever reason. i understand that, but now the stakes are even higher because he has a record. we have seen him try to abuse power. we have seen him try to overturn a legitimate, free, fair election. we have watched him bungle covid and cause unnecessary deaths and pain. so he has a record, and in addition to that, he's told us what he's going to do. he is absolutely linked to this project 2025 and all of their

dark and dystopian efforts to turn the clock back on americans' rights and the way we live, and how we, you know, look at our futures together, and he's -- he has a long, rhetorical record now of making it very clear that he would be unaccountable if he were ever near the white house again. >> madam secretary, as you just said, there is so much at stake, and there's proof as to what is at stake. so those who believe in our democracy would consider this an all-hands-on-deck moment. >> right. >> military officials on both sides of the aisle, former members of trump's administration, many republicans have stepped up, signed letters, and even said they're going to vote for kamala harris. who in the republican party high up, who you think could move the meter, do you think should step up and make that same declaration? >> well, mika, i wish everybody

would. everybody who knows the danger that he poses, and frankly, having served in the senate for eight years, and i've heard joe say this on the show many times. we know that the republicans we served with, we know the republicans who are still there, many of them know better, and what is holding them back and making them have this allegiance to trump, i don't, you know, fully understand, and in the book, i write about what it would be like to -- be, like, you know, fallen asleep now, and not know who won and waking up after the election, and after the inauguration, and to see what trump is doing which is implementing his policy with military troops in the street, to, you know, grab the woman who waits on you at the diner, pick up the guy who's, you know, mowing the grass in the

neighbor's yard. not because you have any information about them, but because of the way they look, or maybe their first language. that is unimaginable, but that is what is being promised. >> right. >> so i would ask every -- every republican, you know, a lot of people decided not to run from the congress when they knew that they could not support trump, and they knew that if they didn't, they would be primaried. let them step up, but what's most important to me, are the people who have served with him. they are sounding a three-alarm fire is possible. they are telling us. they were in the defense department, the white house, homeland security, across his government. they're begging us, please -- i saw him. don't put him in power again. >> right. yeah, and the hope is to have a real republican party again. i mean, if that could be rebuilt

in some way, that would be good for our democracy, and as a democrat, i think we agree on that, which is why i wonder. members of the bush family, condoleezza rice. who could move the meter, and perhaps give other republicans serving right now the permission structure to break out of this hold? >> i wish they all would, you know. i've written before about sitting next to president george w. bush at, you know, trump's inauguration, and instead of hearing what you expect to hear, which is i want to be the president for everybody. it was a hard campaign, now let's pull together as americans, you know, the kind of things that i would have said, and other people say. we heard about carnage in the streets and we saw this dark, dystopian image of our country, which is unrecognizable, and at the end of it, you know, president bush turned to me and said, that was some weird -- and

so he knew it then. >> yeah. >> we have seen all of this unfold. i'm not going to speak for him. he has to make his own decisions about public statements, but everybody who cares about this country, which i know they do, i worked with them. i was the senator from new york on 9/11. i was in the oval office two days later. i told the president what we needed to rebuild new york, $20 billion. he looked at me and he said, you've got it, and he never wavered. they love this country. they know this man who is running at the head of their party is a wrecking ball for everything we believe in. so everyone should -- this is a full, you know, hands-on-deck moment, and you never know what might influence somebody in their voting. i personally think taylor swift is getting people to go out and

register, and hopefully turn out to vote, but i do know from, you know, working on this book and writing about the stakes, our country would be unrecognizable if this man got his hands on power again, and, you know, i love what some of the republicans are saying who are endorsing kamala. they're saying, look. i don't agree with her on anything, you know? liz cheney is a perfect example. dick cheney for heaven's sakes. i don't agree with her, but what we do agree on is we have to save our democracy first and foremost. then we can start arguing again. we can have all the policy disputes about everything under the sun that you can imagine, but let's not let this man have power again. >> by the way, thank you for bringing up one of the great george w. bush quotes of all-time, and the statue on the mall. that will be the quote underneath his life-sized statue. >> it was prophetic. >> he summed it up.

>> he summed it up well. i mean, brevity is the soul of wit. i'm curious if you would talk about january the 6th. in your book, you -- you paint a vivid picture of what it was like inside your home. >> right. >> i think it was that way in ours, and so many others, but also talk about how you had rarely seen president clinton as discouraged as he was that morning. >> you know, as i write in the book, joe, i went out for one of my walks. that's how i try to keep myself a little bit saner, and i came back in to my house. i didn't have any knowledge of anything going on, and, you know, chelsea and her husband, mark, and the kids were living with us during covid, and bill was at our breakfast table, and chelsea was standing next to him, and they had the television

on, and i didn't even know what they were watching. there were these images of the capitol, and people scuffling and fighting with police officers and scaling the walls. and, you know, bill told me that, you know, there were rioters who were doing what they thought to be trump's bidding, trying to interrupt the certification of the election in the congress, and were, you know, in full riot mode, and, you know, bill had his, literally, head in his hands. he just could not believe it. i was looking at a place i'd gone to work in for eight years, i was stunned, sickened, and, you know, my daughter, who has grown up in politics, and, you know, has been around people who are of different parties, but as

always, you know, found ways to talk to everybody, and particularly loved the way that, you know, george and barbara bush treated her from the time she was a little girl, so, you know, we have very fond memories of the transition of power, the peaceful transition, and we were just in a state of deep, deep worry and despair, and like many, many americans, watched that unfold throughout the day, and wondered, where was the president? where were the orders to end this terrible assault on our democracy? and of course, they weren't there because he was -- i have to say -- enjoying what he was watching on television. that's the only conclusion one can draw, and he held out hope that his efforts to intimidate,

to overwhelm the legitimate constitutional process might actually work. this is a guy who believes raw power, intimidation, domination, is what should be done. i saw a video clip of him just the other day praising the north korean dictator because people stand up and salute and applaud when he walks into a room, and literally trump is heard saying, that's what i want from my people. this is so foreign to who we are as a nation, the kind of values that we're supposed to hold, and january 6th was, you know, one of the worst days in american history. >> and by the way, donald trump still, again, promising to pardon many of the people that we see in that video desecrating the capitol. >> mm-hmm. >> secretary clinton, one of the

things people who spend time around you note is how dialed in in politics you are, and how dialed in on races across the country you are. i'll put you in a pundit seat for a moment here. >> oh, dear. >> about how we should be thinking about these next 40-something days in the election. what are the important states to look at? we've shown important states that shows progress for vice president harris versus where joe biden was in some of those states, but as we also pointed out, there's no celebration in the campaign. >> no. >> they know how tough it's to going to be. what's your assessment of how important things are? >> we've made a lot of progress. we are certainly in a better position than we were before the president decided to withdraw, and i think that the challenge as it has been for a number of elections now, is winning the electoral college. i have no doubt that the harris-walz campaign, like my campaign, will win the popular

vote, but i think, as we all know, that doesn't get you the election. you've got to win 270 electoral votes. i think what needs to happen is what they are doing. just more, you know, deeper, more intensely which is reaching out to people both with the positive story, and, you know, when, you know, sometimes i'm asked, well, where is the policy? go to the website. that's where the policy is, you know? i had more policy than anybody had. it was -- i gave speeches about it. it was on our website. i wrote a book with tim kaine about it. we had lots of policy. at the end of the day, that's not what caused people to vote for me or against me, and i think the harris campaign knows that. they know that you've got to, you know, cross a threshold which they have more than done in terms of what kind of governance you're promising, but at the end of the day, this is

a -- a contest between freedom and oppression, between democracy and autocracy, between bringing people together and further dividing us, and that's what has to be communicated every single day between now and the election, and i want to just add that i think you all do an excellent job of talking about the stakes. not just the horse race, but the stakes of the election, and painting a picture for people about what trump is promising to do, and don't let folks get away with saying, yeah, but i'm not an immigrant. it's not going to affect me. i'm not a woman of child-bearing age. abortion bans aren't going to affect me. i'm not likely to die like that poor, young woman in georgia did because she didn't get the medical care that she needed. i'm not, you know, lgbtq. i'm none of those things. i think if you listen to somebody like timothy snyder who

i think you had on the show , and with his new book on freedom and prior book on tyranny, there is no safe harbor from authoritarians. you can get on their wrong side without even knowing, and a lot of the people in business who say things to me like, well, you know, i don't know. i mean, the taxes and this and that and the other. first of all, think about the future of the country and what will happen to your children and your grandchildren, but secondly, you know, you may not be his favorite in a year. somebody else may have given him more not only campaign contributions, but business and financial opportunities that feather his nest, and so you think you're safe. nobody is safe, and we've got to get back to a country that is under the rule of law, not the rule of a very dangerous man,

and those who enable him because don't forget, willie, that this is not just about electing him. it is about putting people into place who through project 2025, have made us very aware of the kind of country they want to see. they want us to believe what they believe. they want us to worship the way they worship. they want us to think the way they think. they want us to, you know, ostracize people who are not like us. no. you know, i grew up at a time when i kept pushing, open the doors of opportunity, you know, the civil rights act, the voting rights act, the women's movement, the gay rights movement. things that recognized our common humanity, and our differences which make us a much more interesting country. nobody can beat america when it comes to our energy and our optimism, our diversity is our strength, and people who want to

take that away or who want to suppress it, or make it feel like it's not legitimate are hurting america. they are hurting our security and our prosperity, our leadership in the world. so i think there's a lot to talk about that may hit chords with different people, and they may begin to say, you know what? i'm not going to take that chance. it's too risky. i would rather, you know, be arguing with the television about, you know, president harris' policy than wondering whether, you know, my son who's in a gay marriage, may have, you know, that overturned or my, you know, young daughter who is in a state with an abortion ban may need medical care she can't get. let's focus on the reality of the choice, and i think if we do, we're going to win. >> the new book "something lost, something gained: reflections on life, love, and liberty," is on sale now. former secretary of state, hillary clinton, thank you very

much for coming on this morning. great to see you. >> thank you. good to see you. thanks. still ahead, we're going to go through some new polls in key battleground states that are trending toward vice president kamala harris. plus, vladimir putin's war of attrition is decimaing russia's fighting force. we'll look at whether the casualties can actually bring him to the negotiating table. we're back in just 90 seconds. e we're back in just 90 seconds. shopify's point of sale system helps you sell at every stage of your business. with fast and secure payment. card readers you can rely on. and one place to manage it all. whatever the stage, businesses that grow grow with shopify. hi, my name is damian clark. if you have both medicare and medicaid, i have some really encouraging news that

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i look at the debate. i walked off and i said -- you know, they said i'm the g.o.a.t. in debates because i had a lot of debates, and then i became president, and the g.o.a.t. means greatest of all-time. they didn't correct her once, and they corrected me everything i said practically, and i think nine times or 11 times. and the audience was absolutely -- they went crazy, and the real -- i thought it was -- i walked off. i said, that was a great debate. i loved it. >> well, i mean, yeah. you know, the stagehands were going crazy. >> does he know there was -- >> there was a hound dog up in the balcony of abc, you know, abc has that hound dog they have had, you know, since peter jennings brought it originally. >> whoo! >> the crowd went crazy. the crowd went crazy.

>> what debate is he talking about? >> which one is he talking about? is he confusing the debate with the taylor swift concert? >> our crowd in this studio, every time i provide a piece of analysis, or you do there, just goes absolutely bananas. leaps to its feet. >> come on. >> sometimes they go into the wave, you know, when they're in here. it's just -- >> oh. not the weave. the wave. >> yeah. i mean, there's just so much there, that he says they -- who's they? saying he's the g.o.a.t. he's calling himself the g.o.a.t., talking about the rousing ovations he got in a completely empty constitution center, except for him, kamala harris, and the two moderators at that debate, which obviously as has been the case at both debates so far, had no audience in the room whatsoever. >> no. not at all. >> yeah. >> meanwhile, the former president -- >> they went wild though. crowd went crazy. >> he says he plans -- >> the biggest crowd you've ever seen at a debate. >> the t-shirt gun out, joe. shooting them to the fans. it was amazing. >> it was -- it was unbelievable, playing guns n

roses. crowd surfing, you know, and, you know, maga crowds. it was really wild, and so yeah. that's something. whoo! and he remembers that. >> he also says he's going to visit springfield, ohio despite objections from the city's republican mayor. it comes as there's new reporting on how the trump campaign knew the stories about haitian migrants in springfield were not true, but spread the lies anyway. how sick. also ahead, the federal reserve makes an aggressive move on interest rates with the first cut in four years. "morning joe" economic analyst steve rattner is here to break down what that move could mean for the future of the economy. >> i tell you what it means for willie and me, our offtrack dog race business, is going to -- we finally -- i think we get the cash, willie. i think we're going to open it

up. >> yeah, and now that we've all opened up the crypto lane, we're going to have a big year. >> everything is coming up roses, and let me tell you something. you hear the crowd cheering? do you hear the crowd cheering in the studio? >> they're going wild. >> really? they want this to happen. >> ring the bell. >> it just came out. they did a routine, the knicks dancers. >> that make you feel good? that keep you distracted? we'll also have the latest -- >> while we're talking about new york sports here, mika, and i thank you for your patience. the new york yankees in the playoffs. i got to say the other big story in new york right now, those mets. >> the mets. >> you got to believe, willie. you got to believe, the mets now two games up in the wild card race over the braves, and they, again, like we said earlier this week, they're giving back to the braves what the braves have done to them the last two or three

years. just a torrid second of half of the season, and i don't think any of us would have fought going into the second half of september that this new york mets team would have the run that they have had down the stretch. >> yeah. they have been playing great lately. they beat the nationals again, and they have got a crazy stretch coming up. they've got a bunch of games with the phillies, the best team arguably in baseball, and they play next week a three-game series with the braves in atlanta, which likely will decide the whole thing. yeah, the mets playing great. the yankees clinched at least a wild card out in seattle last night. so for now anyway, baseball is good in new york. so the host of "way too early," white house bureau chief at politico, jonathan lemire is with us. >> he doesn't remember from week the week. what is that? because that's happened a couple of times. yesterday he confused bogram air force base for, you know, anwar in alaska, like, what's going on there? dwl well, first i'll know you

just showed sam stein in the split screen. he cheered for me when i came up onset this morning. >> that's sweet. >> thank you, sam. very appreciative of that. >> boys. >> sam, thank you. this is happening more and more for donald trump. let's remember, he's 78 years old, and with so much attention this year about president biden's age while he was still in the race, it was overlooked that trump just a couple of years lounger and just as prone, maybe more so, to these verbal slips and confusion. i think it's harder to pick up sometimes from trump because he's so loud and he talks so fast, and frankly he's been doing this for years. so we're all sort of numb to it. >> yeah. >> but now i think there is a new focus here, you know, about his metal capability and fitness for office. it's one that democrats are pointing to, and these mistakes, these mix-ups are only seemingly increasing by the day. >> right. the crowd, and again, just to underline, you said the crowd went -- >> no crowd. >> -- crazy.

>> at this debate. >> the crowd went crazy. no crowd. >> it was dead quiet in there. just two hosts sitting there. >> bagram air force base, and maybe you can see it from alaska. anwar, i don't know. i don't know. >> it's weird. all right, so we've got a lot to get to this morning. >> new polls. >> there's a slew of new polls showing a tight presidential race in three key battleground states. let's start in pennsylvania where the latest "new york times"/siena college poll finds kamala harris ahead of former president donald trump 50% to 46%. that result falls within the poll's margin of error. >> which again, it's "the new york times"/siena poll. they usually have her at three, and him at 97. here, yeah, this is close but she's up by four point. >> a quinnipiac university poll finds harris leading trump 51%

to 45%. in michigan, harris has a five-point lead over trump, and with wisconsin, it's close. harris leads trump by just one point, 48% to 47%. meanwhile, a new marist poll has trump and harris died in pennsylvania. harris has a five-point lead in michigan and a one-point lead in wisconsin. similarly a new aarp poll finds harris leading trump by one point among likely voters in wisconsin, 49% to 48%, but among voters 50 and older, trump takes a three-point lead over harris, and the latest "new york times"/siena college national poll finds harris and trump tied at 47%. ah. what do you -- >> what do you think? >> well, i've found the polls to be disappointing in the past. so i never know what to believe, but it does give you a snapshot, and i think the trend lines is what you always say is the important thing to look at.

>> yeah. and willie, if you look at the trend lines in pennsylvania, in michigan, trend lines all -- most of them show kamala harris doing substantially better, six, seven, eight points better than joe biden did, up three, four points. again, still in the margin of error, but you look at the trend lines there. trend lines in pennsylvania and michigan look good for kamala harris. wisconsin just is about as tight as dan rather might say tight as a texas tick. >> a toad on a -- yeah. >> a texas tick on the back of a -- >> okay. he's way better than that. >> side shooters. he's got it. remember that one? >> there you go. >> it is -- it is stark when you look where we were before president biden got out of the race. the trend lines as we talk about seem to be slipping in a lot of states, obviously in the battleground states, but even others, and at worst, kamala harris has stabilized that, and

at best in some of these swing states, she has grown a bit of a lead now on donald trump, but sam stein, i guess the good news for democrats is there is no celebration whatsoever inside the harris campaign. they're under no illusions that they're running away with any of these states. they know how close it's going to be. interesting to note in some of the crosstabs on these polls though that we looked at a minute ago, the quinnipiac polls, on specific issues that donald trump is believed to have, and that he thinks he has an advantage. the economy and immigration, even those have entered sort of margin of error territory, suggesting that kamala harris has made up ground on those two pivotal issues in this race. >> yeah. i mean, unlike the crowd at the do it, you are right. not much celebration here for democrats. did i get the -- did i connect the dots? >> that's good. that was good. >> just got to, you know, ruin the show a little bit. i will note that joe's right. it's kind of funny because all these polls basically tell the same thing of a very tight race

with a probably small harris lead, but joe's right. you can imagine the collective freakout and meltdown if the numbers were slightly reversed in the "new york times"/siena poll, and it was harris down a couple of points in pennsylvania. democrats would have a they were bill that would be monumental, but that's not the case, and it's funny because i don't think republicans will feel the same way about that poll this morning. ultimately, it's a really close race, right? and the trend lines are slightly more favorable to harris. there was a question about whether she had plateaued a little bit. i think at this point, it's probably fair to say the debate gave her a small boost, and yeah. i think we're looking at a race where it's, like, you know, one or two percentage margins that will determine the election. harris has a little bit of momentum, but she has more money, and also a more sophisticated ground game operation. i was talking about it with lemire a little bit, but, you know, trump's kind of outsourced

all of his ground game operation to other groups including an elon musk superpac, and there was a new story this week that was a little bit underappreciated, but musk basically stopped contracting with a couple of those groups and decided to contract with another group. the they're thing though, that is of note, and i think, willie hit on it s the key issue of the day which is the economy, more trust for harris over time, and then secondly, and i know we're going to get to this, the fed interest rate cut. >> yes. >> we have the recipe for a, you know, decent set of economic conditions heading into election day, which i think will benefit harris, and which i think is why you saw a lot of the trump people sort of angry about it, calling it almost conspiratorial and political for powell to do it. all things considered a fairly good day of data for harris. >> yeah. >> i'm going to go the lemire now. >> let's do that. >> this is never meant -- i'm going to lemire now. >> okay. you do it, honey. all right. >> now there's a part where i'm coming to you, which i was told.

t.j. goes -- >> inside voice. >> take the prompt. take the prompt. >> okay. >> so anyway, the -- this whole story about plateauing, again, i just want to bring this up, and as sam said, psychiatrists across manhattan, they get a month's worth of work the day after "the new york times"/siena poll comes out. today, you know, it's, like, 47-47, but they threw in the pennsylvania deal. just sort of is a mood regulator for some people on the upper east side, upper west side. >> cut through the anti-present -- >> exactly, exactly. you're you have and down. they get to stabilizing. >> it's a mixture. >> so -- but that said, the only plateau there was was "the new york times"/siena poll, and i'm serious. you look at the polls that are out there right now, a lot of the ones that have come out the last couple of days, national polls have harris up three, four, five, six points.

these polls show certainly in the most important swing states a significant move towards her. wisconsin really tight, and of course, wisconsin is wider. wisconsin is older. that's a state really that joe biden was overperforming in because he did better with older, white voters than he did with other groups that he usually underperformed on. so i think that's what we're seeing in wisconsin, but right now, michigan, pennsylvania. if you are looking at these numbers, if you are also looking at what i still think may be in a tight race, and all these swing states, the most important story, and that is the joe biden and kamala harris together have been burying millions and millions of dollars and building up a ground game over the past year in part, because biden is an old-time poll that says ground became, ground game, ground game. in close races, even the trump people will tell you a good ground game is worth half a

point in any state, especially when the other side is outsourcing their ground game because they never had the discipline to build it. so this is, again, not great news for harris, but certainly not good news for donald trump. >> right. >> yeah. let's first take a beat on that ground game. let's remember, of course, the rnc was then co-opted by the trump campaign and trump family, and they used resources for some of to his legal bills for a time as opposed to working on that ground game. when president biden was the candidate, and continued under vice president harris, the democrats have a massive advantage in terms of battleground state offices. we've seen a surge in volunteers. i have been told that they have -- they don't even have enough jobs for people who want to do them because there's such enthusiasm for her. that's got to help, and we shouldn't overlook, she's going to have a massive financial advantage as well. she's really outfund-raised trump and will have to go forward doing so, and more time

on the campaign trail. you know, certainly in terms of these polls you mentioned wisconsin, even in this -- pennsylvania as well. it's a state that's whiter than most of the country, and polls show some strength here for white voters and with older voters. now not as strong as joe biden, which is why i think the harris campaign is going to use biden in targeted fashions to speak those demographics. the race is very close, but the trend lines favor harris, and in terms of, guys, the spin of these polls is always amusing. whenever a poll comes out and shows a tight race, republicans grab it and say, look. we're doing really well, and motivate our voters and we're doing well. some of it is also to pump up their candidate. democrats do the other way. oh, this is trouble. we're underdog because they don't want to take things for granted and they want to keep working. harris feeding into that, and say, we have a lot of work to do, and we're still losing. polls suggest she's not. coming up, some of the other

stairs making headlines this morning including a huge lawsuit related to that bridge collapse in baltimore in march. plus, a preview of the upcoming season of "snl." we'll tell you who's hosting the opening episode of that 50th season when "morning joe" comes right back. ck thursday night football on prime. it's on. welcome to thursday night football. the new england patriots take on the new york jets, as thursday night football is on. making the catch for the touchdown!

it's aaron rodgers what a catch! up against a new era in new england. good show, you guys. stream thursday night football. only on prime.

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so let's talk about that big sign of where the economy is now, where it's headed, and a language anticipated move. the federal reserve cut its target interest rate yesterday for the first time since 2020. the fed slashed half a percentage point off those benchmark rates. that's the short-term borrowing costs for banks, but also affects mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards. after announcing the cut, the central bank also forecasted lowering rates by another half point before the end of the year. let's bring in former treasury

official and "morning joe" economic analyst, steve rattner. steve, good morning. here's the front page of the "wall street journal" this morning, says that the fed goes big with half-point rate cut. we were talking beforehand. this sounds like a big number, and it is, but they were signaling that it might go from not a quarter, but to a half in the days before this. >> yeah. normally it would be a quarter for this first step in a rate cut cycle. that's traditionally what's happened outside of some crisis, and the fact they went to 50 basis points says two things, one that they had the room to do it, inflation has come way down and it's down to about 2.5%, and secondly, that they kind of needed to do it because the labor market is softening. you can see here what the rates are going up to the top of the mountain, and then you can see them starting to come down, and what the fed also as you said, projected more rate cuts this year, more rate cuts next year, and gradually rates getting back to somewhat a normal level, and

mortgage costs have already rolled over and that's really important. housing costs have been a big factor in this election, and it's important to show people hope on mortgage cost. >> if it goes another half point by tend of the year as predicted, you're talking about a full point in the space of about four months or so. so just in layman's term, what are the practical implications of that? >> it's lower interest costs as you said in your lead-in on mortgages, credit cards, and all that sort of stuff, but the real implications are that it gives stimulus to the economy, and also signals something important which is that we have gotten the inflation under control, and inflation is now down to 2.5%. fed's target is 2%. so we're not that far from it, and it does show that. we have the right side of the inflation.

you see it coming up the mountain, coming down the mountain, and the fed has the scope to do this, and it will do this. it's a big political lift for, i think, the harris campaign. i think they're in a position now as the president is going to say -- president biden is going to say, the economic club of washington today, he's going to be careful not to declare victory, but he's going to say we've made a lot of progress, and it looks pretty good ahead. we're also growing at 2%. we're adding jobs and here's a fun fact for you. gdp under president biden, even if you strip out covid, moved slightly faster than it did under trump who loves to run around and talk about his great economy. it was a little better under biden. >> we've heard this term soft landing, the delicate dance the feds have to do to avoid a recession effectively. does it look like our economy will achieve that or will achieve that? >> remarkably it does, and this is almost without precedent. there's no example in history where the fed has attacked inflation and has managed to look at it without having a

recession. yes, the percentage of economists who think there could be a recession in the next year are likely to be a recession next year has gone from 65% down to 35%, and so we are basically in a pretty -- in a pretty strong environment. i want to make one other point because trump, of course, is attacking the fed and saying it's political and powell and blah blah blah. i'm not sure trump knows how the fed makes rate decisions. it's made by a committee of 12 people all over the country appointed by various presidents, by various local federal reserve banks. it is not jay powell's decision, and you had an 11-1 decision yesterday in favor of cutting rates. this is the fed doing its job, not the fed playing politics. >> as always, donald trump suggesting something that doesn't cut his way perhaps there, must be something corrupt or fishy going on injecting that poison into the economy. quickly something else he said before he suggested something was up with this, was that this is a sign -- this rate cut of a half a point, that the economy is not doing well. what's the truth about that?

>> the job situation has been slowing down a bit. unemployment is up to about 4.3% or thereabout, but that's still a pretty low number. the economy is slowing, but it's still positive. the fed also projected and the numbers are showing, gdp growth of around 2%. it's not a barn on fire, but it's not terrible. it's a very steady, solid growth rate. it is hard to predict the economy, but it does not suggest the economy is in deep trouble as i said. recession predictions have been coming down, down, down. >> steve rattner, always bringing the truth. steve, thanks so much. we appreciate it. mika? coming up, we'll go live to the middle east where israel appears to have pulled off a second attack on hezbollah using the terror group's own devices against them. those details are straight ahead on "morning joe." e.

♪♪ all right. time now for a look at some of the other stories making headlines this morning. russian president vladimir putin is under pressure to call up more troops in his war of attrition on ukraine. it comes as western analysts say the kremlin is now losing more men on the battlefield than it can recruit to replace them. putin has so far dismissed the idea of mobilization saying he wanted to use only those who were voluntarily signing military contracts. >> you know, jonathan lemire, it is shocking. we often talk about the problems that ukraine is having, but yesterday the number comes out. a million casualties in this

war, killed or wounded of russian soldiers. i mean, this is what was supposed to be a three-day excursion to kyiv. it has turned into an epic national tragedy for ukraine, but also for the mothers and fathers of russia. >> yeah. a tragedy and a humiliation for vladimir putin, let's not -- you can't be -- say it enough. yes, they do still control 15% to 20% of ukraine. the battle lines have largely frozen, but this has been a devastating blow to russia's military. its reputation to be sure, but also its manpower and its technology, but that's why the biden administration has really seized on this argument in a although not a single american troop is deplayed there in ukraine, and fighting that conflict, this is one of the best investments the united states military has ever made by supplying ukraine with both money and equipment and weapons. they've weakened russia's military where it will take years upon years to recover.

>> all right. the justice department the suing the owner and operator of the containership that collapsed the francis scott key bridge last march. they argue it was grossly legitimate and reckless saying it was poor maintenance and jerry-rig maintenance to fix the ship. it paralyzed the port of baltimore for weeks. and "saturday night live" has revealed its hosts for its 50 ths season. >> sam stein? >> sam stein. jean smart who won an emmy for her role in "hacks" will kick off an september 28th alongside musical guest jellyroll. other hosts include ariana grande, john mulaney. coming up, we're joined by

an american icon. joan baez is our guest in the fourth hour of "morning joe." why she's lending her voice and art to the harris campaign for president. "morning joe" is back in a moment. ♪ blowing in the wind ♪ ♪ the answer is blowing in the wind ♪ ♪ how many times can a man look up ♪ ♪ before he sees the sky ♪

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yes, dear. >> i take sugar in my tea. >> oh, your tea! be right there with your tea. coming right up, dear. sugar. tea, sugar. you got it. oh, dear.

coming right your way, dear. >> the water is boiling. >> hello! oh, i'm sorry to frighten you, dear. i must look like a yeti in this getup. this is my nightly meringue mask. it's egg whites, sugar, vanilla, and a little touch. there you go, dear. there you go. you've got your cream and sugar now. it's a cappuccino. >> that was the clip from the 1993 -- can you believe it? the film "mrs. doubtfire" serving hot tea. while you won't find that specific recipe in the "new york times" cooking section, you will find more than 21,000 different recipes, and everything from sandwiches to steaks to desserts, and this morning, "the times" has narrowed that massive list down to their top 50

recipes of all-time. it's part of "new york times"' cooking's ten-year celebration, showcasing the best recipes they've ever published according to readers. so which recipes made the list? we're going to find out. joining us now, editor in chief of "the new york times" cooking and food, emily weinstein. she is author of the upcoming cookbook "easy weeknight dinners" which goes on sale october 8th. welcome to the show. good to have you. >> emily, thank you so much. in the words of joe biden, this is a big cooking deal. >> okay. >> i mean, you have -- you have this section. first we have to talk about thi. and it's doing well on the journalism side of things. but the quiet or not so quiet

star has also been the cooking section, the cooking app, the cooking community. and the first time i realized how big this was was a couple years ago when i saw an instagram site dedicated specifically to readers' comments on your recipes. talk to me about how big cooking has become for the "new york times" and the universe that's been created, this business model but also just for fans and readers. >> it really has been a smashing success for the "new york times." the news will always be the sun in the "new york times" solar system, but still, cooking has emerged as this beloved product, this real fan favorite. that's why we wanted to do this list the way we did it. the key phrase in that headline is "according to you."

that fan account on instagram, that's an account that reposts some of the best, funniest, most outrageous comments on our recipes. those comments, those communities has its own meta fandom. we love that, by the way, and we wanted to pay tribute to it. >> we could go through all of the recipes. i've got to tell you the one that jumped out at me. that was the tollhouse cookie recipe where the sea salt, not an option to leave it off. it is the highlight of it. these recipes are not just the most shared, but the most highly rated by readers. talk about how this list was developed and why you decided to put it together now. >> we wanted to do it for that

ten-year anniversary. we launched cooking ten years ago to the public. in order to make this list, we looked at a lot of different metrics. we wanted a meaty list. we didn't just want the recipes that accrued the most traffic. we wanted recipes that had taken off on social media, which is its own forum right now. and we wanted to look at the recipes that inspire the best comments, the comments people really love and kept coming back to. we looked at all the data, all the posts and we started curating it. we put it together, and that's how we arrived here. we wanted to showcase the recipes that have become iconic for nyt cooking, the plum torte,

those are on this list. >> you talking about them is helpful. getting hungry, listening to you list the recipes, is there a way you could tabulate to find out what the number one recipe of all recipes you guys have done is? >> there are numbers that show the most visited recipes over time, right. >> okay. >> for us, those are the old-fashioned beef stew, the red lentil soup. those have been on the website for a very, very long time. these numbers don't account for the lifespan of a recipe. we havcipes that are three or four years old that are

immensely possible. >> i love it. >> you have on here -- talk about a classic, number seven, southern macaroni and cheese. tell us about it. >> this recipe from the chef millie peartree, one of our writers. it's just that essential cheesy flavor you want when you are dipping that spoon into the dish and pulling up that heap of

macaroni and cheese. >> thank you so much for being with us. all these recipes are available at the "new york times" website. editor in chief of "new york times" cooking and food emily weinstein, thank you so much. >> thank you. >> and her new cookbook, "easy weeknight dinners" is on sale. i need that one. up next, politico's jonathan martin takes us inside trump's so-called electoral firewall, the three states that could send the former president back to the white house. plus, a live report from israel following a second day of targeted and deadly device explosions in lebanon. keep it right here on "morning joe." non. keep it right here on "morning joe.

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and here -- now, the media loves to say that the haitian migrants, hundreds of thousands of them, 25,000 in springfield, but hundreds of thousands of them all across the country, they are here legally. what they mean is kamala harris used two separate programs, mass parole and temporary protected status. she used two programs to wave a wand and say we're not going to deport these people here. i'm still going to call them an illegal alien. an illegal action from kamala harris does not make them legal.

that is not how this works. >> yeah. >> i just -- i just -- okay. so he's calling a legal act an illegal act. if it were, in fact, illegal the united states supreme court, who certainly ruled in donald trump's favor repeatedly at the end of the last term, would have deemed it illegal, but it wasn't illegal. again, here's jd vance. he's always insulted when people ask him basic questions that actually stops him from being able to bend the reality field into something that his boss donald trump might like. so what jd vance just said there is he is going to deport in a way that donald trump said would be bloody, he is going to deport

immigrants who are here -- >> legally. >> -- legally. if you're an illegal immigrant, you're going to be deported, and i think a lot of americans would agree with that. but if you're a legal immigrant, jd vance says you're still going to be deported. this goes back to what hillary clinton said in the last hour. just because you don't think it applies to you, if an autocrat gets in power, it could apply to you. this is a great example really of two things. one, facts don't matter. and, two, the law doesn't matter. we're going to do -- this is why it concerned you when donald trump said -- somebody said who's going to be pardoned from january 6th, he said, whoever i think is going to be pardoned. he's saying when we're in the white house, we're going to

decide what's legal and what's not legal, supreme court be damned. >> and the political acrobatics in that answer where jd vance says something cruel about what he's going to do, which is send legal immigrants away, deport them en masse. at the same time, he and trump are snowflakes and victims of the media. kamala harris is coming after them. they can't handle the media questions. they're so snowflaky. >> that's one of the great ironies. i remember in 2020 i started seeing flags that said for donald trump blank your feelings, vote trump. and then after donald trump loses, facts don't matter. you know, we need to give him time for his feelings to move along so he can get his arms around this. well, he never really did, did he? january 6th started, and now

four years later you have most republicans not being driven by facts, not by reality, not by law, but when it comes to donald trump, always by their feelings. they're always so triggered, and it's so sad. willie, jd vance is saying i'm going to do a fact check. why don't they fact check? and he does a false fact check. he says -- what the supreme court has deemed legal, i'm going to determine is illegal and we're going to throw them out anyway. here's a fact check for you. rupert murdoch's "wall street journal" does reporting on this cat story, where it all began. they're eating the dogs, they're eating the cats. where did it start? it started with a trump supporter who lost her cat miss

sassy. and miss sassy, far from being eaten in some bizarre voodoo ritual by a haitian immigrant, miss sassy was downstairs in the basement hiding. even after the reporting, as the sub head says, they just keep lying. trump and vance just keep lying even when the republican governor is saying stop. >> and the woman at the center of that piece deeply reported by the "wall street journal" says she first filed a police report her cat was missing, suspected may have been taken by one of the neighbors, maybe a haitian immigrant. then she found miss sassy in the basement and went next door and apologized to her neighborhood for suggesting he or she had taken the cat. >> that's nice. >> it was nice.

>> i made a mistake. i thought you ate my cat. that's nice. that's what you want people to do. if you accuse your neighbors of taking one of your pets and sacrificing them and then consuming them in a bizarre voodoo ritual and you get it wrong, it happens. you go next door and apologize, right? >> how many times have you said it? it's just the right thing to do. >> i can't even count. >> unlike that woman who went and apologized to her neighbor, you would think someone with character or integrity or wants to be a leader of this nation would say, okay, that story wasn't true. we're sorry the city hall is on lockdown because we perpetuated and fanned this lie based on a series of completely debunked -- not just by the media, but by the people at the center of

these stories who say i was wrong, i apologize, i feel terrible for what's happened to the city of springfield because of it. you would think the vice president or somebody who wants to be commander in chief would also knock on some doors and apologize and step away from the lie. >> especially if they were your constituents. >> i don't understand it. >> exactly. >> former president donald trump says he plans to visit springfield, ohio, despite objections. >> will he go meet miss sassy? he should go meet miss sassy. miss sassy's fine. >> peter alexander has more. >> reporter: overnight former president trump joking about the apparent assassination attempt at his golf course. >> golf is a very dangerous game. >> reporter: on fox news, the

president also touting a nonendorsement. the teamsters declined to back trump or harris yesterday. >> that was sort of a big event. nobody ever expected anything like that to happen. >> reporter: the harris campaign saying teamster's locals across the country have already endorsed her alongside the overwhelming majority of organized labor, harris also pushing back against the major trump campaign theme. >> they have pledged to carry out the largest deportation, mass deportation in american history. how is that going to happen? massive raids? massive detention camps? what are they talking about? >> reporter: it comes as trump is pledging to visit springfield, ohio, which has been a flash point in the immigration debate. >> i'm going to go there in the

next two weeks. you may never see me again! but that's okay. >> reporter: now officials in ohio say there have been multiple threats in springfield, including its schools. the mayor saying a trump visit would be a strain on resources. the republican governor visiting springfield to show support after those bomb threats. >> resources are really stretched, but if president trump makes that decision to come here, he will be welcomed here. >> reporter: democrats have condemned trump's rhetoric about immigrants, including president biden yesterday. >> we don't demonize immigrants. we're a nation of immigrants, and that's why we're so damn strong. >> sounds like ronald reagan there. that's exactly what ronald reagan said. >> let's look at the state of the race. new polling shows a tight presidential race in three key

battleground states starting in pennsylvania. the latest poll of likely voters finds vice president kamala harris ahead of former president trump, 50% to 46%. that result falls within the poll's margin of error. a new quinnipiac university poll in pennsylvania finds harris leading trump 55% to 45%. a new marist poll has trump and harris tied. it also finds harris with a five-point lead over trump in michigan and wisconsin. harris leads trump by just one point. meanwhile that marist poll finds harris with a five-point lead in michigan and a one-point lead in wisconsin. >> let's bring in jonathan

martin and make murphy. jonathan lemire back with us as well. i always talk about trend lines. you never know exactly where the polls are, but you certainly can read the trends. i've always find in every campaign i've followed trend lines matter. >> you're right about that, joe. the trend is more telling than the daily number. we're all being whip sawed by the margin of error, which people forget. you've got to back up to the biden days. the democrats were in real disastrous trouble. now they're in a neck-and-neck race, which is good. we're in the middle of the definition of kamala harris. trump guys were pounding her on tell vegas. she's trying to define herself

positively. they're still learning about her. it's a real race. i think the "new york times" got a little bit of happy juice in that data about pennsylvania. i saw a private poll that i trust down one. but this thing is close in all the right places and she's in the hunt. >> we were talking a little bit off camera. let's use this springfield, ohio, story of a snapshot and how far things have come and remembering that moment in october of 2008 where a woman said she doesn't trust obama because he's an arab. and he physically grabbed the microphone from her and said, no, ma'am. >> we've thrown the whole rule book out. people in both parties used to know it was their job to

maintain standards. now you have a candidate whose standards mean nothing. he's just a consumption king. it throws out the whole model of what the job of president is supposed to be. we're a little different. we're not like a european country where you have a head of state and a head of government. the rule keeper, the federal standards. and trump has just shredded that. there's only one choice. the standards are at stake. they're on the ballot. >> it's a particularly dizzying moment when we get three different polls out from pennsylvania in about an hour's time. they're all very, very close. it is going to be tight.

your new piece suggests there are three states in particular where trump needs to win. that's hiss fire wall. pennsylvania is one of them. the other two, north carolina and georgia, all three on the east coast. tell us about that strategy. >> it's a seven-state race. there are seven battlegrounds. that's true, but the trump strategy is clear at this point. he's banking on what i call a big east strategy. i don't want to confuse the basketball fans out there. this is a different kind of big east. it's three states in the eastern time zone where trump is going to try and close this thing out early, pennsylvania, wisconsin and georgia. he's poured a ton of money

trying to define her in pennsylvania and georgia. just last week he put $17 million more in tv reservations in north carolina. that's the plan. the challenge there is that this does give her some bit of insurance. she's not just relying on pennsylvania. it's not do or die in the keystone state. she could still win the presidency if she's able to pick off one of those two southern states. >> tell me what is is it about north carolina? i understand they've got a really radical guy, republicans running for governor and also i believe a really radical education candidate as well for the top education office there. but north carolina, it's

interesting, when you get the same pollster who does all swing states sometimes she's far closer in north carolina than other states you would think would naturally be hers. what's going on there? >> one of the most fascinating parts about reporting this piece, guys, is that the democrats are much more bullish on north carolina than i expected. some believe it's even on par or close to on par with georgia. georgia is a more heavily black state. biden won georgia in '20. he didn't carry north carolina in '20. the environment is turbo charged there for democrats precisely for the reason you mentioned. republicans have nominated somebody for governor, mark robinson, who said all manner of inflammatory things and he's sort of a walking oppo file for

democrats. you add trump and vance on top of the ticket, and it's almost like they were built in a lab to offend female voters in north carolina. i've covered enough races in north carolina to know democrats often get close, but they have a really hard time getting past 49 and change. >> clearly different under vice president harris than it was with joe biden at the top of the ticket. they had a three-state strategy. now at least there are more avenues to victory for vice president harris. if you continue your character building, if you were giving advice to democrats in the last days, what would you tell them? >> carville always had the great

line pennsylvania is philadelphia, pittsburgh and alabama in the middle. the pop states like michigan, my home state, pop, not soda. she's put georgia into play. maybe north carolina. we'll see. if you win georgia then you have a real shot at north carolina. she's ahead there now. you can see the alternate route for her. they have the money and resources. that's the thing. make the bet. i'd raise a lot of hell in florida if i were them. republicans have the advantage but it's always fairly tight. you can set a lot of barns on fire there and maybe pull some

resources out of the real game. if he does win pennsylvania, don't let him move into michigan. >> before the debate, a couple days before the debate i know you were hearing -- i was hearing that the polls were getting tight for biden in minnesota and virginia and new hampshire. and so that was actually -- that was sort of a leading indicator even before his bad debate forms that this was not going well. here we are a month or two later and suddenly we're seeing texas polls within five, florida polls within five, other states donald trump should be easily winning within five.

again, it might be fool's gold. what would you do? of those states, would florida be the state you did make a lot of noise in and make him usury sources there. florida, they have a very important senate race there and a real tiger in their candidate. that's somebody who, if they could close it, might be able to make it over the line there. it's kind of the old swing state theory of ohio and florida are my distraction states to try to run the table. again, i wouldn't be cocky. if people ask me who's going to win, i say hell if i know. she has more ingredients to win, but he's got one thing going for him. he's in the way of his great thing, which is, as you say,

predebate the polls were tightening. people wanted to fire joe biden over the economy. that is a wall of lava. that is still there. she's got to connect on middle class economics, because that could still beat her. yesterday, the federal reserve cut interest rates for the first time in over four years. the central bark also suggested it could lower rates by another half point before the end of the year. let's bring in the frank holland. >> the fed went big yesterday. the 50 basis point cut is seen as a really aggressive move by the federal reserve to solidify the labor market while maintaining the downward trend in inflation. the fed signalled another 50

basis point cuts this year, one just days after the election and one in december. fed chair powell made a clear effort to frame that 50 basis point cut as a way to -- that framing is in opposition that the idea that the cut was responsible to a major slowdown in the economy or some other potential damage that could be out there on the horizon. the dow is on pace to open up 1% higher, the nasdaq 2% higher. we -- >> talk about weekly job less claims. >> really good news if you're looking for this weekly jobless claim report to show strength in

the economy. came in at 219,000, just below that estimate of 229,000. also a decline of 12,000 from last week's jobless claims number. this could be a sign of a strong labor market and strong overall economy. this all goes back to the fed. the strength of the labor market seems -- >> this is just one of those companies that have really been a cornerstone for america, for trade with the world. just one bit of bad news after another after another. talk about boeing and the latest challenges for the strike. >> cornerstone u.s. company, but not just one incident after another, years of incidents at

this point. the strike by the machinist union for boeing continues to hit the company. tens of thousands of workers began walking out yesterday, including managers, executives and other staff members of the aerospace giant. the new ceo who's only been on the job about six weeks sent a memo to employees saying employees would take one week of furlough for every four weeks of the strike. the company has previously said it would freeze -- one estimate would be $3 billion if this strike lasts for 30 days. looks like it's on pace to last at least 30 days. the two sides very far apart when it comes to pay. coming up on "morning joe," the latest on the explosions of

pagers and walkie-talkies that swept across lebanon the past two days. we'll get a live report from tel aviv when we come back. report l aviv when we come back (vo) dan made progress with his mental health, but his medication caused unintentional movements in his face, hands, and feet called tardive dyskinesia, or td. so his doctor prescribed austedo xr— a once-daily, extended-release td treatment for adults.

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back at 9:29 in the east, 6:29 out west. nearly 40 people have been killed and thousands more injured following two days of device explosions in lebanon. lebanon's telecommunications department identified yesterday's exploding devices targeting members of hezbollah as part of a handheld walkie-talkie. it all came a day after hundreds of pagers belonging to hezbollah members detonated across the country. israel has not taken direct

responsibility for the explosions, but two sources tell nbc news israel was, in fact, behind those. joining us is raf sanchez. what more can you tell us about this? >> reporter: lebanon is a nation terrified and traumatized after two consecutive days of these explosions ripping through the country. first it was hezbollah members' pagers blowing up, and then it was walkie-talkies taken. the group's leader has become increasingly convinced that smart phones are vulnerable to israeli electronic surveillance and he urged his members to switch to a more analog communication. that turned out to be a deadly mistake at this point.

we're not sure what could be coming next. it is a vast operation targeting not just hezbollah members but also literally blowing up their communication network. there are civilians caught up in a it. remember, there are thousands across the country. the health ministry says at this point 37 people have been killed by these exploding devices. that includes two children. lebanon's medical system is just overwhelmed by? influx of some 3,000 wounded people. i can tell you people in lebanon at this point are just terrified any device has the potential to explode next. you have seen people really not

sure whether it is safe for their families to continue using smart phones or not. the israeli government is putting a new emphasis on the situation in the north. israel's defense minister yesterday saying he is shifting troops and resources from the fight against lawmakers in gaza to the lebanon border in preparation for battle against hezbollah. as we wait to see what hezbollah's response will be, we are expected to hear from the group's leader in the next hour. >> my next question was concerns after this extraordinarystring of attacks, what is the region

expecting in terms of next steps here? >> reporter: so, willie, we are hearing hezbollah members vowing revenge. you can imagine the fury, the frankly sense of humiliation that israel was so able to penetrate their network. but whether or not at this point the group is actually capable of carrying out a large-scale attack remains unclear. we may get a clue when the leader speaks at around 10:00 a.m. eastern time. i can tell you forces here on high alert. the question is whether this israeli operation was carried out sort of in isolation to wound hezbollah, to send a

message that israel is able to carry out attacks like this keep inside their own territory or whether this is the opening phase of something bigger. israeli has said they are determined to get these displaced civilians back into their homes. it feels like the window for a diplomatic solution with hezbollah is closing and it is making increasingly ominous noises about a military operation. >> raf sanchez live from tel aviv, thanks as always. coming up next, singer and activist joan baez is our guest. and adam driver is here to discuss his upcoming revival. s l

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♪♪

beautiful for spacious skies. ♪ for amber waves of grain ♪ ♪ for purple mountain's majesty ♪ ♪ above the fruited plain ♪ ♪ america, america, god shed his grace on thee ♪ ♪ and crown thy good with sisterhood ♪ ♪ from sea to shining sea ♪ ♪ crown thy ♪

>> so beautiful. that is joan baez encouraging americans to register to vote. did you note that word change? sisterhood. joan just announced the release of her limited art piece titled kamala harris, change is going to come. you can purchase one of the 500 prints at joanbaezart.com. that's online. the net proceeds will be given to the harris campaign to make that clear. and joan joins us now. it's such an honor to have you on the show. i should let you know you were my first introduction to music. my mom played your music for me when i was a little girl and we were both hooked. >> tell your mom she did

something right. >> i will. i will. she did a lot right. >> obviously you really broke through first at '59, '60 newport folk festival. but at the march on washington, it was adopted as a civil rights anthem. so you stepping forward here just continues an unbroken line of involvement. talk about why now is so important. >> maybe something for instance with the war and israel, palestine, maybe something in her as a woman will find a different way of doing diplomacy to end that war and save so many

people who are just being, you know, basically slaughtered, and the other side which is in terror. and violence is contagious. each time they drop a bomb on somebody, they solidify the intention on the other side to retaliate. >> talk about also just the historic sisterhood. you sang about sisterhood in "america the beautiful." talk about how a woman as president could make a difference. you talk about europe. not only europe, but india,

other countries. talk about how you think that could make a difference over the next four years. >> it could. people have always talked about the possibility that they're able to sense that sorrow and sadness and attempt to do something about it in a way that really dismisses violence and does it another way. in kamala's case, it would be talking with diplomats and bringing in the real feelings that rnts allowed -- aren't allowed when you're doing diplomacy for a country that's struggling now with violence to hold itself down or to demolish somebody else. and in this situation i cannot

take sides. the violence -- a bomb is a bomb no matter where it goes off. i think there's also a question of the numbers of people who are killed. it certainly is a lopsided situation there that palestinians don't stand much of a chance trying to compete with israel's machine. >> tell us quickly before we go about this limited edition portrait of kamala harris and what was the impetus behind it. >> in 2020 i was doing a series of paintings called the mischief makers. they were all about people who had made social change without violence. kamala was a natural for that. it was a real joy to paint her. now i have 500 copies of this

print, and each one is going for a thousand dollars. the net proceeds, of course, will go to kamala's campaign. you can get that by going to joanbaezart.com. so it's a beautiful painting. the proceeds couldn't go anywhere more important right now than kamala's campaign. >> legendary singer, songwriter and activist joan baez, thank you very much for coming on the show this morning. >> thank you for having me. >> thank you. take care. coming up, oscar nominated actor adam driver joins the show to discuss his two new big projects, an off broadway revival and a major new film.

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country music star is in pursuit of the american dream. adam driver joins us now. >> good to see you. >> good to see you again. you looked surprised when i said that. >> yeah, i hope everybody feels that way about me. >> what was it about this play,

this writing, this story, that kind of captured you and convinced you to dedicate as much time as it takes you in your life -- >> the writer, and "margaret," in particular, i don't know if you have seen the movie. it's like a masterpiece. this time the timing was perfect, and it was him and then the cast, i have to say, is one of the best -- i know people often say that when they are talking about that, but it's one of the best casts i have ever worked with, and it was sarin dip tuesday to me. >> who is he? >> it's a comedy, and he just

lost his mom, and it's about identity, and it's about the people that support those kinds of nucleolus and households. it's about grief, you know. with kennedy's plays, because you are doing them eight shows a week for four months, there's always a discover or a new question that you can ask yourself that works itself into the line. if it's bad writing, you have no more flexibility. there's only one way to play it, but when the write something so clear, and this one in particular, it's mismatched but it always works as a piece and there's always something to find doing it night after night. >> you are in the final rehearsals. >> yeah. >> what does that feel like as a stage actor on the brink of

showing this to the world, is it scary or exciting -- what is it like? >> it's scary, because i have been sick but i love the idea of a potential disaster, and everybody wants to watch this. just a potential just mess. we just moved into the theater on monday and we are in tech. we had some students in our rehearsal room so we have a good sense of the play, a little bit, and that was exciting which i had never done before. i am excited for people to come see it and teach us about the play in a way. >> you have done, of course, as big as it gets in entertainment and you feel a different comfort zone? is that fair to say that? >> yeah, acting and theater,

both in the service industry. in this one, i like that you have to tell the story with your whole body, and there's no cherry-picking physicality, and you have an hour or two to tell the whole thing. again, i love the liveness of it, the improv under pressure and it makes you look like a better actor because the writing is so good. i love being in the theater, more intimate the better for me. there's a lot of structure and improv and because you have been doing it for so long, you know when to be economical and when somebody is going off their --

that kind of aliveness i like it more. >> can't way to see it. previews are next week and hoping night is october 16th and runs in late december. i have to ask you about your acting life, and a big sprawling movie. how do you scribe this with so much talk and anticipation about it and capola is up to something. how do you describe this? >> it's a one-of-a-kind. to say that about a film is a hard and impress ive accomplishment. he still does theater games in takes like i did in college, and it did feel like an experimental

theater. he paid for it and so it felt like an experimental film with great actors, and i couldn't think of a reference like it's like this other film because it's not. >> and capola spending more than 100 million of his own money on this idea. >> adam, it's remarkable that francis ford capola, like the apocalypse, it seems, again, he's willing to make the

incredible artistic leaps and they usually pay off. talk about this one and how special it was to be part of it? >> it meant a lot to me because, you know, his films changed cinema, and working on it was one of the best shooting experiences i ever had, because, as i was saying before there's not really a conventional way to make a film, we're all making it up and we have to make up a structure so people can eat, sleep and go home. how we work on it is up to the way people working on it, and when you go back and watch some of his films -- i don't know how he would have got what he got any other way. that, to me, you know, it's an unfortunate thing, you know, about films -- the great thing about films is they are forever. your mistakes are permanently ingrained and they also have

different lives. often, like something with "melalopolis" and "apocalypse," and i didn't watch that because i was not alive, but when you make it and watch it, it teaches you how to watch film. >> i can't wait to see it. we will let you go and rest. >> yeah, man. >> "hold on to me darling," it runs through december 22nd, and the movie premiers in films next sunday. good to see you. >> good to see you again. >> that does it for us this morning. we will see you back here

tomorrow morning. ana cabrera picks up the coverage in just one minute.