he did not have much to do. mark: why pose as a female deaf mute? lisause he did not want people to know he is bobby durst anymore. he was hiding from janine. mark: the jury buys the explanation and later he decides he want to make a movie with these two people. what got into this man's head knowing that he is a mass murderer? lisa: hubris. through all of these cases, he always dangled things and a catch me if you can weigh. ay. the newspaper wrapped around the torso. come on. john: the last person on the board sarah. why is she so crucial? lisa: sarah was susan stepmother. he did not want to believe bobby killed her. as he is working with the filmmakers, he finds an envelope that bobby sent to her mother. it matched perfectly the cadaver note that was sent to the beverly hills police back when his mother was killed. mark: including the misspelling of the word beverly. john: we could talk about this with you all day long. detective depalo, it is amazing you have stayed on this case for 70 years. thank you for doing that. we will be right back. ♪ mark: ba

social media stocks are down so he might try to renegotiate. lisain premarket trading but they are well below the 54.20 mark. why are people so still so skeptical? alex: elon has said multiple times himself that he might not be able to do this deal. loads of questions about bots. matt did a piece said this is a red herring. he said he wants to do the deal in some form. if he did not want to do the deal at all, he would not be rearranging his financing options. tom: alex, everyone i spoke to thought $54 is a gift, take the money and run. where does take the money and run end? $50? $40? alex: it could go a lot further south. if you look at the evaluation multiples of the projections, free deal, trading at about 50 times earnings. there were expectations built into where the earnings would grow. the idea that even if elon had a special sauce that could turbocharge them, it would bring them in line with where market expectations were. it is a lot more mature and a lot bigger. you could rely on anywhere of the 50 times multiple. twitter is a smaller comp

lisa: he does not like getting dressed up? ch is fine for us. lisa: taking on some pretty big companies, disney, amazon. can you talk about that? >> that is one of the reasons we were interested in her. she has sort of brought a lot of american companies over. it isof people say because they are american but what was interesting about the interview, she said it is not about being american or any national, but it is the companies that are leaders in a particular space, even when they do very good business, you have to be careful they are not using their power to take other new interpleader's from picking up. whether those intervenors are european or not, and that is a very different way of looking at it because we had a question, why stop people at google? she said, what is to say the good service of today could hold us back? lisa: of course, we also hear from the google driverless cars czar. does he think we will see them? >> he does. this is a man that used to be for, the guy that ran hyundai in the u.s.. he has true car bread

lisa: he walks differently. he knows this sort of method of using some sort of towel and an iron. to take the creases out? lisa: to take the creases out. you can use cleaning rags. i am looking at this and thinking, are you joking me? but they cost a lot of money and he wants to resell it and then buy another pair. he's found jordans for me and i say, no. jonathan: he wanted to buy crypto last summer. given the choice again, would you allow him to spend $202 and invest in the market or go to nike and by sneakers? lisa: you're going to make me have buyers remorse. jonathan: i am just trying to work out if his mother would like to backtrack on the nike thing and do what i suggested, which is let him invest. lisa: and fair enough, this is his backdoor way of trying to invest. he was really into some of these other crypto's that have done well. jonathan: just $250. lisa: ok, all right, all right. jonathan: just match him dollar for dollar in the market. [laughter] we can track young 'bramo's performance for the summer on this show. lisa: he would die. jonathan: then we can do a telepho

lisa: he called me out. we started talking about futbol and he said i couldn't look more less -- i couldn't look less interested on air. tom: how about those phillies? ♪ (announcer) enough with the calorie counting, carb cutting, diet fatigue, and stress. just taking one golo release capsule with three balanced meals a day has been clinically proven to repair metabolism, optimize insulin levels, and balance the hormones that make weight loss easy. release works with your body, not against it, so you can put dieting behind you and go live your life. head to golo.com now to join the over 2 million people who have found the right way to lose weight and get healthier with golo. >> i think we are going to have some momentum here with the technicals telling you the market should continue to do well. >> monetary policy is biting into economic activity. >> the glide path will moderate but can margins be maintained? >> we still think there is pain in front of us. >> we will have a higher inflation target. >> this is b

lisa: he said it yesterday. november 15, he has a very big announcement of mar-a-lago.: did he get in the way of mr. vance's efforts? lisa: i do not know if he got in the way of it. this has happened a few times. tom: dave matthews band is a band that plays here. jonathan: so easy to trick you guys. relax. let's talk about the spirit inflation is top in mind, we talked about -- let's talk about this, inflation is top in mind. we talk about the fiscal package in 2021, central bank policy, constraints around the world, who do they blame at all? >> the republicans blame it on the biden administration. they will make it back to things like the american rescue package . if you talk to economists, they will say it is marginal and the impact on the final inflation number. you talk to democrats in they say this is a global issue. if you look at where the united states stands versus inflation, the u.s. is in a much better shape. we are seeing countries in europe that have much better inflation. they point to ukraine, supply chain bottlenecks coming out of the pandemic. the eleph

lisa: he abandoned us.the vitality of the food here, and europe in general, the best was in istanbul in my travels. steven major, thank you so much. i'm not having a full english tomorrow. we will do a full english data check. we can do that. the headline number for me with richard mailer coming up his brent crude. $116.85. lisa: what does this mean for refined products? i'm curious how the windfall tax plays into this, whether it is the beginning of a host of taxes around the world. exactly. what is going to be the consequence? do you see more investment in oil and gas production, or loopholes any retracement -- and a retracement because they raise -- because there is a resentment? tom: i tried to pay in crypto. what a grim week for crypto. i have less than scott minerd. he says up to $400,000. then $8,000 on crypto. lisa: it has not been the safe asset a lot of people expected. i think you should start the triple leveraged all crypto fund. tom: we tried that. coming up, alina polyakova, president of the c

lisa: we heard from tom barkan. kailey: heu want to get back to where you want to go as fast as you can without breaking anything, not causing undue harm to financial markets. what harm would that be? william: i think you would have to see some sort of calamity in financial markets, repeated ability of banks to lend money to households and businesses. i do not expect that. i think the reforms we make that we saw in terms of the banking system, more capital, more liquidity, better government. i think they will work this time. tom: i you not know which is more important, you quoted the great economist claudia, or quoted the other economist, wiley coyote. i will let you decide. that is great to see. bill dudley, thank you, former president of the new york fed. lisa, it is great to talk about the psalm rule, which speaks to the dynamics of what the central bank has to deal with the unemployment. from mr. dudley, personal savings rate with all the challenges of an nation now for the country moving from 27% to 4%. that is jaw-droppi

this is a conversation he wants to have. lisais unapologetic when it comes to why he voted for britain to leave the european union. i talked with lucas shaw about his interview. >> he was one of the more approachable celebrities i have encountered. he goes to capital records every year for his birthday. he says down for a series of interviews with different reporters putting myself. i was lucky enough to be in that group. the first thing he asked me was about my shirt. i was wearing a polo shirt that i had gotten at coachella music festival and it has bears wearing spacesuits and the popular raccoons. so he's been a couple of minutes talking about that. [laughter] lisa: the thing you talked about was britain's vote to enter the european union. i was surprised to giving the fact that the beatles were come all youssive need is love, and ringo starr said he voted for brexit. >> yeah, i was surprised by that, too, which is why i brought it up. i brought up the streaming business. ringo no longer is considers the u.k. at home. the u.s

lisa: he is into the whole resale market. tom: he buys them and he resells them. he'll work on making sure they don't get any creases. jonathan: so he will wear them. lisa: occasionally and then he feels guilty. jonathan: i'm tried to work out what the business model is. lisa: there's a very big markup and if you get a rare one. tom: lisa can you get day trade to go into a pair of l.l. bean boots. lisa: i think we are moving away from that and we will try to shift into other interests. jonathan: what light? lisa: we can discuss that in the break. jonathan: i'm just interested. i want him to day trade. lisa: at the same time when your kid is walking like he is wooden peg legs so he doesn't get creases and figuring out how to iron with a wet cloth, it's good. tom: all good. jonathan: this was a better than good segment. you don't get to take it back on live. up five of 6 -- five or 6/10 of 1%. yields a little bit higher up four basis points. china easing some quarantine rules, not sure how material that is but crude likes some of that. with tom keene, lisa abramowicz

lisa: he is -- not participating in the market. lisa: he is just waking up to this now.ughter] tom: it is one lifetime event, another lifetime event. jonathan: do you know the kind of messages i get from people feeling sorry for you, asking why i am being mean to you? ,isa: for the people on radio tom has a mute button on him, and he is just a killing wildly. tom: there it is -- he is gesticulating wildly. tom: there is. i don't have the mute button. ferro has the me button -- has the mute button. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ jonathan: equity futures positive. initial jobless claims just second away. from new york and london, good morning to all. with your economic data, here is michael mckee. michael: good morning. looking at initial jobless claims a little bit lower than forecast. these are the seasonally adjusted numbers. they change the way they calculated it. -- last week.onth a big decline. 850,000 was the forecast. the number we really want to see to get a better, more accurate description of what is happening with unemployment claims is nonseasonally adjusted

lisa: he is going to be eating pie with a fork and knife. nathan: they are not doing pies in milan. lisa: maybe when he gets to london. jonathan: we will make this happen. this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: let's get the trading week started. equity futures up on the s&p. the nasdaq up by 6/10 of 1%. the russell positive by 7/10 of 1%. the range on the two-year last week, the high was close to 480. below was close to 440. right now, somewhere in between. 4.6818 on the two-year. in the fx market, a quick look at the euro. people in that move higher on the week, the dollar index did not give me much last week at all. tom: it is an important insight and what is interesting is how yen has strengthened. i do agree with the u.s. yield shift up. we did not see it in further dollar strength. jonathan: a lot of weakness out on friday post payrolls. we are trying to work out what that payroll was all about. tom: it is a time of change as we readjust to the end of the year and after the election. joining us now is somebody with terrific perspective on this,

lisa: he has been. he wanted to buy macy's at the heart of the pandemic, and i was like, you are 11. no. jonathan: you need to get him on the show. actually had young 'bramo on my radio show years ago, and he made some good calls than. he was about six years old then. futures up 0.25% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, up 0.1%. yields higher by five basis points. in the commodity market, 112 dollars. crude not doing much this morning. lisa: still at $112, a far cry from where we were. i keep coming back to this idea of francisco blanch talking about how $150 on brent in his -- on brent is his base case. i wonder what that would do to the empire commodity complex. how much would that disrupt stocks, given the fact that so many companies, you absorb those costs and you start to see signs that consumers are pushing back? jonathan: i've mentioned it a few times, we have not done really in-depth on this story over the last few hours, dollar-yen. you have been on top of that, bringing together asia and what is happeni

lisa: he really has not timed that very well. he has not done very well on big tech. if you think the dynamism will be in the traditional place, how much do we actually have? jonathon: i don't -- i'm not sure that line works for me. i don't think people are reaching for that violin. a phenomenal investor who has done well over several decades. one small story that deserves some attention, why he pulled back from the airlines when he did just as things were getting much better for the months ahead. i want to turn to the price action on amazon. amazon is up by a little more than two percentage points on the back of a massive quarter. these numbers from credit suisse and the team over there. for the top five companies. apple, microsoft, google, facebook. they have all reported q1 results. they beat expectations by 35%. the bar was high and then they hopped over the bar. that has been the story this week. lisa: they did not just hop over the bar. they crushed the bar. they shredded it. the question for me was why was there not more the reaction because it seems like the d

lisa abramowicz, and annmarie hordern. jonathan: this is torture for equity market bears. every single our bob michele of jp morgan, i feel great. he was bearish a year ago. this is a big change. lisa: now the bearishness is not being bullish enough. we see upgrade after upgrade on wall street as everyone reassesses what the pivot from the fed means. jonathan: oppenheimer raising the s&p 500 year end target to 5500. i think that might be john stall office. you talk to him about upgrading the target and here we are. lisa: he said i'm going to revise things. there's not much upside from here to get there. as we heard, it did not take long before we could get to 5400 by the end of this week. jonathan: they get lined coming from boeing. let's get going up on the screen. boeings dave calhoun announces his intent to step down as the ceo. the stocks is higher in the premarket 2.5%. the boeing ceo announcing his attention to step down as ceo. lisa: everyone is wondering what took so long. everyone was wondering why he was still there. the idea this is a cultural problem that is not yet seen bottom and a question of who comes in and what is

he took melissa around with him -- mona lisa around with him. take it when he was traveling and work on it. walter isaacson: the thing about him is, he would just keep paintings until he had it perfect. the mona lisa was a culmination. it started around 1503, but in 1519 when he dies, it is by his bedside because he is still layers ofe tiniest glaze. he used the science of objects to figure out the lips and the size of anatomy -- science of anatomy. even the light coming into your , but in thee detail corner of the retina sees the shadow. details, solittle they go straight, but the shadows turn up. as your eyes move across your face, the sour -- the smile flickers. but this took layer after layer and year after year and the lightest touches. charlie: was he the dominant presence culturally of his time? walter isaacson: yes, by the end of his life he is indeed leonardo da vinci. he is known as an engineer, although with all of his inventions they never flew very well. part of it was because he was a theater producer. one of the things i have lear

lisa: he's going to go late so he could watch the game and put on his jersey. wrong? jonathan: 12 months ago talked about how we needed to get to the g7. lisa: it's going to be important. jonathan: lisa could break down the sophisticated nature of this potential that could happen with the russian assets. lisa: i will do a detailed analysis. jonathan: i will let you know later why lisa must go and i will supervise. lisa: people should write in if they think we should go. jonathan: see if management comes along for the ride, i doubt it. apple edits developer conference, the stock is positive one third of 1%, just around the corner. ♪ want to save on some of the biggest names in streaming on the network made for streaming? x marks the spot. now you can add the new xfinity streamsaver™ that includes netflix, peacock, and apple tv+. that's xfinity streamsaver™ for just $15 a month. all your favorites. all in one place. only from xfinity. for more watching and less spending... x marks the spot. do it all on the network made for streaming, and bring on the good stuff.

lisa: he is good. you say not bad.athan: [indiscernible] tom: a swanson tv dinner, the differential between--and 375. i ticket out of the aluminum. jonathan: call it -- tom: you don't know what a swanson tv dinner is. jonathan: we have talked about it. up 1.1 on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping you up-to-date on news around the world with first world news -- first word news, the elon musk deal with twitter is on hold. he announced the delay, he is waiting for details supporting the calculation that span the spam and fake accounts make up less than 5% of users. european union nations say it may be time to delay a push to ban russian oil. they can't persuade hungry to back the import -- embargo. this chancellor says the exit settlement in northern ireland is causing economic and political harm. he was asked whether the u.k. would take action on its own. >> no decision has been taken. our preference has been to have a negotiated settlement and in the foreign secretary continues to engage with counterparts in europ

lisa: he's criticizing your wardrobe.: you can do a full english in london stuck jonathan: ok, i'm never going to forget lisa saying mush. do you want to take it back on this jubilee celebration? lisa: i don't want to take that back, it was really good. people talk about avocado toast in the united states. tom: acv milan taken out by redbird and this company doesn't by a majority, they are good at going in and buying a hunk. they've got the fed weight linkages well but i wonder if this is the future of's warts. jonathan: a shout out to elliott management, would thought that there hedge fund would end up owning a football club and it helped turn the team. here is a tweet for you. we do it just for you. a little more for you in the next segment. and the segment after that and the one after that. where is the love? tom: you have to do is show and in any given show, 42% of the people have to hate you. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news around the world, the price of oil is falling today fo

he has to "campaign in" 24/7. which bill gets pushed the hardest? lisa: is he lobbying his own constituents?s he lobbying the populist? tom: are two bills really in place? jonathan: very much so in terms they're trying to pass them in tandem. in that sense, yes. are there ready to go now? the answer is no. lisa: we have not seen the details or any specifics of the larger reconciliation bill, which raises the question about the timeline. jonathan: the president speaking later this afternoon. i understand we will take those comments on bloomberg tv and radio. equity futures 4278 on the s&p. down not even .1%. i need one of those dashboards and that i will press a button as i'm speaking and you can save your voice for the rest of the program. yields 1.4782. anything to say? tom: four digits. i like it. the euro is weaker. jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: from new york city, tuesday morning. here is the price action. 4279 on the s&p. unchanged after climbing to a record high yesterday. the best first half since how long? tom: nine years. jonathan: unreal. nasdaq futures -.

lisa: he left pimco under a cloud, was fired, in his own words. e was a scuffle at the top and then he went on to prove himself -- he wanted to prove himself. he set up his competition between himself and pimco. when it comes to performance and assets, he lost. essentially he is stepping out during a time of weakness. return antrained bond annual average of less than 1% over the past three years, compared to an annual average of nearly 4% for unconstrained bond funds, as measured by morningstar. bloomberg4% for the barclays bond index. vonnie: what was the trade that he did not get out of, that he would not let go? lisa: there were a series of problematic trades including trying to short the 10-year treasury, also believing german bonds would sell after medically with yields rising. also decompression, the gap between rates in the u.s. and german bond rates. it had why did to an presented levels. he thought it would contract. it has that only very recently. during his time it only widened out. vonnie: he is not getting out of the game completely, h

lisa: he would probably say no.ce at this point or is it a community health perspective? i we still seeing hospitals strained? that is really the issue. jonathan: it depends on where you live, doesn't it? tom: im fixed on the james bond thing. mohammed says jonathan ferro should be the new james bond. jonathan: i can make that work. i am disappointed that they shot some of this movie -- it is beautiful and i do not want extra toys going down there, but i think it is over anyway and everyone is going down there. this was fantastic. lisa will ask who would know? tom is agnostic on financial asset. see how that works. tom keene and lisa abramowicz. equity futures are down 12. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> inflation is not going down. hi. wes you have to worry about the service sector and all those areas connected to travel and leisure. >> we have to work our way through this. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: i am alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. we had do

lisa: overnight " recent yen moves has been rapid. is significantly week yen -- weak yen," but he reinforced the need for their policy. jonathan: we were talking about getting out of the last decade, now we are almost 10 years into this experiment too. lisa: we are seeing a shift. jonathan: perhaps. futures down a third of 1%. nasdaq down half of 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping up-to-date with news from around the world, i'm ritika gupta. encircled by russian forces, ukrainians have not surrendered. ukrainian officials have warned of additional airstrikes. many remaining troops in mar iupol are sheltering within a giant steelworks. history suggests the federal reserve will have a hard time calming inflation without causing a contraction. it is not inevitable because those pandemic normalizations in goods prices will help the fed. u.s. and treasury officials say that congress is to blame for internal revenues -- lawmakers have seriously underfunded the agency and that led to the departure of personnel. there is a new twist -- there is an indication of interest well in -- southw

lisa: he needs to indicate he will run even if he doesn't plan on it. were british. we get to may of 2024. lisa: you tried with the pie. tom: can we bring up a bond issue? aggregate treasury futures, net spec positioning. we talked about equity shorts covered yesterday. the bond market short position is stunning. stunning. way beyond equities. lisa: there were reports that hedge fund short bets on treasuries had reached record highs. it is unclear what they were hedging against. it is not necessarily a naked short and that kind of weight. however, that does indicate what we are looking at in terms of the violent move and perhaps that is overstating the interpretation of jay powell's remarks. jonathan: there is one hell of a pain trade. this is so, so painful for 70 people. they came into -- so many people. so many people sat in that chair and set it. the first half will be dreadful. the second half is going to be about the recovery. we have ripped through last month and it continued. nine out of 10 people we spoke to all expected chairman powell to face

lisa: he is producing a show. jonathan: did he sign anything yesterday? ing signed on tariffs? lisa: of course we got something signed. annmarie: it was a directive, an investigation. to the men behind him, who are not confirmed. lisa: he held up the signature. jonathan: that we might do something in the future. that is a big difference from actually saying tariffs are going on. annmarie: the individuals that can look into 301 and 232 are not confirmed yet. so he is directing them to do this when they get into the office, which is why he just has to punt this all. jonathan: two months is going to feel like a lifetime. munich security conference kicking off today with the future of ukraine the top item on the agenda. resident jd vance set to deliver marks this morning. he is also expected to meet with ukraine president volodymyr zelenskyy later today. annmarie: jd vance set down what the wall street journal before he is going to make this speech and there is one comment that stuck out. it seemed like pete hegseth might have went a little over his skis in th

lisa: he is a democrat. he served in democratic administrations.e is raising the alarm about inflation. are there democrats concerned about this as they pushback against bernie sanders'more ambitious plans? how much will that feature? annmarie: that is a very good point. that is where the power holds. it is in the moderate democrats. they will be the ones to get this through to the caresses or night guest to the progressives are not -- to the progressives or not. they want to make sure that they can pay for this responsibly, those moderate democrats, and that is where the power is going to live when you see the debate on -- where the power is going to lie when you see the debate on whether they are way to get this over the line. jonathan: when you break it down, 42 basis points higher in cpi. new cars, launching transportation services, added another 28 basis points. for me, we can argue all day about this, the definitions, the time frames. it comes down to something simple. the price surge we see now, has it overwhelmed the recovery? does it overw

lisa: lisa: when he was looking at -- lisa: when he was looking at what the real rates were, the facthat inflation has not moved more than 25 basis points, we have to keep her mining ourselves just stopped buying bonds and their balance sheet is near record highs. to give a sense of how easy on a terry conditions are seems to be underpinning some of the optimism in the equity market. jonathan: let's just say expectations have changed a lot through this year into 2023. crude is the move you need to look at. the bpi -- wti around $100 with a big move lower of about 6%. a story we put out your at bloomberg that this administration is considering a monster reserve release. a lot of people reacting to this, including bleakley advisory. "when something doesn't work, just do more of it?!" tom: may a little harsh. jonathan: that's what he said, tom. not me. [laughter] tom: i know. i've got a radel in my desk chez radel -- a rattle in my desk today. what is this, pile on tom day? jonathan: what are you doing with your microphone? tom: vet bill is under here and his kennel is vibrating. bring y

lisa: he said he remembered him to. tom: is this the most interesting fed meeting in ages? is fascinating -- lisa: it is fascinating, they have a difficult task ahead of them. tom: we will have wonderful guests with us to get perspective. i'm looking forward to a conversation with priya misra. we will also hear the conversation with jerome powell. all this conversation led by michael mckee. he will be in the press conference. stay with us. bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. good morning. ♪ jonathan: your equity market is bouncing into this one. higher on the s&p by 1.6%. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: we begin with the big issue. counting down to chair powell. >> the issue is how strong a signal to they want to send? >> i am sure jerome powell will peppered with questions. >> everyone is trying to figure out what is the fed going to do? >> they give a little bit more color about tapering. >> the press conferences are more interesti

lisa: he will close on friday, you are skeptical? jonathan: i remain open-minded. talk about? lisa: how beautiful the world is? jonathan: we've had a big rally in the last three days but how do you know the difference between the bear market rally and something more durable? >> you really don't until is well behind you. here are a few things we do know. we know that investors are skittish as the fed pulls away the punch bowl of easy money and that will lead to a lot of uncertainty. in these situations historically, you have seen that when we are the worst, the biggest gains of the next leg of the cycle usually come in the first third of the cycle when the fundamentals are still deteriorating and sentiment is still negative. whether this is a bear market rally, you don't want to be sitting it out until someone blows the all clear whistle. we are still judiciously bullish on equities. there is a lot of long-term forces to be excited about. equities ultimately are read on human progress and there many forces pushing gdp higher over the next few years that we believe th

lisa: he didn't wear short sleeves, though, like mike pence. he had to roll it all the way up. i cut the nose thing yesterday in the acclaimed bloomberg pup tent. lisa: did you wear a bowtie with your short-sleeved shirt? tom: yes, i had two nurses helping me. lisa: with gloves, with a lot of purell. tom: i will learn in just a few minutes if i pass the test. we have been trying to be very careful, as well. i anticipate this. sry is interesting. you may know him from bouncing basketballs in milwaukee. but far more, he is exceptionally acute about hedge rest -- andsts distressed investments. hope it doesn't cost too much. i hope my insurance pays for it. can you tell me how much this will be? - [cashier] 67. - sorry. - wait, have you heard about goodrx? goodrx finds free coupons to help you save up to 80% on your prescriptions. - wow, i had no idea. - [announcer] goodrx, stop paying too much for your prescriptions. (announcer) do you washed pounds? stress? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution

lisa: he made such a good point.f the government might be getting the money, but if it's not effective, it will be hurting the population and this is where some of the social drawer is a big concern. tom: constructive markets after what you've enjoyed the last couple weeks. yields moving. please stay with us. next, rebecca patterson of bridgewater. from davos, good morning. >> there is of pervasive fog of negative sentiment out there. >> when every single headline is negative, it's time to buy. >> i still think

lisa. tom: michael mckee on an eventful week. he was taking notes as you ask that question. lisa: always. s much more direct. tom: the joy of bloomberg surveillance is to move from michael mckee and a look at market economics to someone like lewis alexander, he is at new more a, the chief u.s. economist , that barely describes his service at the federal reserve system and his economics. there are different groups of economists and lewis alexander has always been someone who said calm down about the worry of inflation. dr. alexander joins us this morning. it must've been in the air at yale university. how do you do respond to the inflationistas of 2021? lewis: clearly the economy will be strong in the near term. i would emphasize a lot of that is the burst approach, that we will translate from fiscal support to fiscal drag quickly. there are supply concerns that may drive inflation in the short run, but i would ask you are those price constraints going to be there a year from now? we think inflation continues to be well anchored, so i think the fed is right to be relaxed about where it will

why wasn't he watching the game? lisasted to say, the fed, take them at their word. annmarie: because they don't have caitlin clark. jonathan: i love that. up next, rethinking the fed's 2% target. >> inflation will be sticky. inflation will be absolutely sticky. we will get stuck around 2.5% to 3%. i don't think that warrants over the long term the fed rethinking its target. jonathan: that is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ do you want to close out? should i? normally i'd hold. but... taking the gains is smart here, right? feel more confident with stock ratings from j.p. morgan analysts in the chase app. when you've got a decision to make... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management. every second counts. 120 seconds to add the finishing touches. 900 seconds to arrange the displays. if you're short on time for marketing constant contact's powerful tools can help. you can automate email and sms messages so customers get the right message at the right time. save time marketing with constant contact. because all it takes is 3

lisa: he will be on at 2:15, talking about the economy. will he talk about the strength, the need for the fed to be aggressive? how is he going to head into a midterm elections, saying rising unemployment rate is by design? a very difficult political message. jonathon: who wants to say that out loud? not ephedra now. futures down on the s&p and nasdaq. crude is inching back to $199. just getting some confirmation from the white house, they have confirmed that time for biden and xi jinping to have a talk. a: 30 -- 8:30 eastern time. lisa: yes, then we will hear from president biden at 2:15. how much is that going to shape anything? i actually don't find it is interesting as the initial job claims. right now, how does the labor market dictate whether the fed starts to reconsider how quickly to raise rates heading into the year? that seems to be one of the reasons why powell thinks there is still strength in the market. going to that 8:30 call that president bynum will have with xi jinping, we have confirm the time. how much are they going to

he is not very good at doing that. lisa do you think will be the main question that he will get that will potentially trigger a reaction? i am thinking it is about how concerned he is about the easing in financial conditions. jonathan: number one, couldn't agree more and that is the question and the spread between been -- them and the market on the back of that. they can't resolve that today with a 25 basis point hike downshifting. lisa: they could say we are bothered by the rally and we don't like what the market has done and this goes against what we are trying to accomplish. that kumutha markets. --that could move the markets. tom: i disagree. i think they look at the markets as a some subtle which shows within the bloomberg financial index, shocking with accommodation. jonathan: you post a question like this and a journalist will do it. happy see -- have we seen a -- he knows the question is coming. how he answers it, you can read a lot into it. he woke with this morning and looked in the matter -- he woke up this morni

lisa: that's what he's doing. jonathan: i imagine that's continued this morning, too. sa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. tom keene back with us monday morning. tomorrow is set to be a good one. ignore the clouds. it gets better from here, i hope. i'm 23 on the s&p 500, off by 0.6% -- down 23 on the s&p 500, off by 0.6%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: by september or october, president biden is likely to see some version of his $4 trillion economic plan passed in congress. the president has two major tasks. he has to keep various democratic factions from splintering the party and keep fending off republican attempts to portray the plan as radical. democrats can use senate rules to bypass republican opposition to most of the plan. the euro area economy slid into a double-dip recession at the start of the year. strict coronavirus lockdowns kept businesses closed and consumers were reluctant to spend. output in the 19 nation euro area was down 0.6% in the first quarter. it fell nearly three times that rate in germany. meanwhile, the u.s. posted annualized growth of 6.4%. in israe

lisa: he is facing competition from everyone.assing tesla dealerships on occasion and you can see cars on the lot, which is surprising considering the backlog. tom: we continued, and dollar-yen, 136.22. this is bloomberg. another crazy day? of course—you're a cio in 2022. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want —your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip network. from the most innovative company. bring on today with comcast business. powering possibilities.™ as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network with no line activation fees or term contracts... saving you up to $500 a year

lisa: he's writing his book on meditation. tom: i think he's in fiji or something like that. sa: the idea here of potential political risk, that is what he was talking about. the idea of a september to remove or, a perfect storm. he's got great catchphrases. honestly, you look out over the next couple of weeks, and given how bullish people have gotten, is there that fragility? tom: i know what francine is going to say. i've worked with her for years. here's francine. lisa, have an abril spritz -- have an aperol spritz. francine: you know what haven't talked about? china regulation. this has been over the last two weeks, basically china selling off, european stocks kind of getting their impetus from china and the asian markets, and then you buy the dip in the u.s.. i don't know how long this lasts into september. tom: lisa, again, that goes to the point of a white knuckle september. to francine's point, we've heard from inda karen and -- from end curran and others about china this year and into next year. lisa: the reaction in markets is, nah. you can get yields. the fed will c

he said over 12 months, lisa. lisa: but he didn't start that off. at off by saying do you see 5000. [laughter] tom: lisa, you are mistaken. lisa: ok, i'm sorry. jonathan: i have a response from ira jersey of bloomberg intelligence. let me reiterate that. the tens to move to 1.8 6% next year, and buried in there is the idea that we get a flatter curve. he says the idea is if the fed is going to hike in late 2023, the front end will need to be fully priced in for that, so it is not massive flattening through next year. he just says that's where the bias might as we start to end his bait some of these hikes. tom: i am wondering what that does to my austrian 99 your paper -- 99 year paper. this rebound for the entire market. jonathan: it does. we will talk about the curve flattening through next year, and it is probably -- it is pretty early for this kind of stuff. tom: this is the most wacko august i've ever seen. august is always nuts. let's be honest. jonathan: we are on the second, and is already the most wacko tom has ever seen. it is september that

lisa: he's blaming me. jonathan: you know he hates people taking time off.teve chiavarone joins us now, federated hermes portfolio manager. we are up 0.5% on the s&p in the face of a fed that took a little more of a hawkish tilt in the face of the situation in china. what you make of that? steve: i thought the market took yesterday well, access adverbs notwithstanding. if we anticipate the fed to maybe communicate a little more aggressive tapering schedule, i was a little surprised to see them signal three hikes in 2023 rather than two. the market seems ok with that, which tells me the market acknowledges some of the upside risks. they are getting tempered to the plan ahead. they're comfortable with it, or at least that is the initial reaction, and we will see how the fed executes from here. it is a little more hawkish, and the market seemed ready for that. tom: i want you to explain on an allocation basis your comfort in being in stocks for the rest of the year. steve: we cut back our equity allocation a couple of weeks ago . we were at 60% of maximum overw

lisa: he went from the uber dove to the uber hawk. s is from ian -- he made it clear that yesterday jackson hole became important. i'm thrilled to tell you the bloomberg tv and radio is giving a full commitment to jackson hole, letting me go, dusting off the two tone tony lummis, we will try to get kailey leinz to go but michael mckee will lead coverage with kathleen hays. the british guys coming if he is back from europe. lisa: [laughter] yeah, jon will be with us. tom: and we will stop the show off the reporting of craig torres and kata unit -- katerina sarajevo with something that has been a wonderful destruction, so-called trading from fed officials. jack fitzpatrick joins us from bloomberg government. the chairman and the former vice chairman have been clear on various sundry inspector general's and that. but others have not in the question is not so much rich guys being at the fed but actually the buying and holding and selling back and forth like during a month or two. jack: yeah, it does seem to be focused on the timing of when

lisa: he is muttering to himself. carry-on.ughter] michael: cheesy nonetheless, yields go up by 40 basis points, maybe 30 more reasonably at the outside in the next five months. that seems like a good play. lisa: meantime, big driver yields rising was a weakening dollar. cooling off a little. people closing out. morgan stanley away completely near-term from the weaker dollar call. do you see it strengthening from here as people look at the situation in europe and see the pandemic and how bad it is and say, maybe the u.s. is not so bad? michael: we see strengthening. good point. longer-term, probably not great. near-term, how about a bear market rally? these things happen. dollar has been down dramatically last seven months. europe, correlative from covid perspective. u.s. yields up, yield spreads going up too. yield advantage for u.s. over germany, france, japan, has increased dramatically over the last months, which should give the dollar a near-term boost. lisa: what is the compass? mark mccormick is tracking the vaccination

lisa: there's a question about peak grouwh. he said middle-market customers are hesitant to draw credit lines. it speaks to the reluctance to take out new loans at a time of stimulus. are you concerned about peak growth and how the market will respond to that with perhaps a more hawkish fed? james: there's no doubt we will have peak growth. we fell 9% year on year in real gdp this time a year ago, record setting in a postwar collapse, and we will have a record-setting advance in a postwar period this year. but when you are doing peak growth from 14% to 15% year on year, and it slows down, i am not sure anyone notice because we will still be growing christie double digits -- growing close to double digits , which is off the charts historically going forward. so i'm not sure that growth people worry about in the cycle is nearly as meaningful this time around. the real issue is this is just a one-time sugar high of 22 anyone in growth, or is it sustainable growth going forward? i think it is looking more and more like sustainable, re

it won't look great if they are not great and he is at the beach. lisa: if he is at the convention center may be he is trying to drum up services at the delaware beach. you are correct. what will it signal? at the same time how does he spin this? if it is good will he have to talk about inflation? tell the fed, do your job? at what point is it a good report for him? jon: the chief international strategist at deutsche bank. financial conditions over the last year are tighter. looser over the last few weeks. are they tight enough? alan: i don't think so. if you take the combination of her s&p's are trading, the 10 year yield, credit spreads, it is hard to see inflation being guided down to 2% in a timeline that is acceptable from the fed standpoint. almost certainly you will need more tightening of financial conditions. tom: you go back to history and talk about arthur burns when he pushed one way and volker going to the other side of things. parse the difference of burns and volker and what it means for powell. alan: what you're seeing from powell and the

lisa: he is washing. -- he is watching. are underlying issues and that is why you see ports shout to the white house that further investment is needed in technology and innovation so if we do see more demand throughout this pandemic. lisa: we will allow you to come back and give all of that history when tom keene is here. ed ludlow on the port of l.a.. you can check it out at 11:30, the interview with the chief executive officer of the port of los angeles talking about some of the measures that have been taken, what needs to happen, and whether some of it is getting better. fascinating giving the fact this is getting baked into a lot of the assumptions of the temporary inflation or the inflation that will eventually abate at some point next year. kailey: whatever you want to call it. the question is not whether it gets better but the pace at which it gets better. even if the logjam starts to clear up that does not mean we will go back to east supply chains. it is about truck drivers having enough personnel, it goes on and o

lisa: he said he thought the neighbor of the neutral jobless rate post-pandemic will be a lot higher,n 4% people have been looking at. do you agree with that? rubeela: fed officials -- he certainly thinks they will be higher or and exits just because of where the dynamics are in the labor market. but with the market trajectory, i think -- with the rate and a 50 year low, 3.5%, higher, there needs to be an adjustment. jonathan: as you look at what is playing out in the u.k. right now, is there a lesson for the fed? rubeela: absolutely. the lesson is they are elevated from natural. but if you have from fed officials there saying markets are functioning. have an eye on what is happening abroad and in global markets. but we do think there is a risk of the financial risk into policy decisions. for now, the u.s. market, the global market, these are isolated events. there is a risk of a spillover but you are keeping an eye on it. we don't think risk of contagion , global emerging markets, it is unfolding right now. jonathan: thank you, repeal of ricky of high-frequency -- rubeela farooqi. we

lisa: he's taking the half-hour. jonathan: let's be clear about that. keene has become more european. guy, thank you. lisa, i know you have thoughts. lisa: people say from an economic perspective this is the labor market tightness. how does this also connect to quiet quitting and people who are just not working all that much anymore prioritizing their home life after the pandemic and what is that mean -- what is that mean so people who are a lot less and it averages out to perhaps a little bit less. these are some of the thoughts that i had. jonathan: thanks to rich miller for lining up the story. three groups you need to think about. educated young men have been reducing their hours. and orca hollow to reduced their work time on the job to 52 hours back in 2019. that is some of the composition behind this. lisa: i do think there has been a reset after the pandemic about homework balance. people would be home and experience what it was when they didn't have the excuse of work. theoretically, it requires some shifts and order to make certain things work b

[laughter] lisa: he's like, not that. jonathan: we had the stress tests. tom: the gloom is just killing me. jonathan: which way do yields go? lisa: happy birthday. tom: ok, enough gloom, guys. you are killing me. this is just -- we've got to go somewhere with no gloom. joining us now, sam stovall of cfra. he does this off of the passing of robert stovall, a giant of what we do. robert stove all invented it. we are thrilled to have you with us. tell us about the optimism of robert stovall that you carry with you. [laughter] sam: good morning to you, and happy birthday to you. he passed very peacefully, but he taught me americans are optimistic by nature. it is ok to be cautious, but you really want to question whether you want to be out right bearish, primarily because if you are bearish and wrong, you are ridiculed. if you are bearish and right, you are hated. so it is good to be cautious because there are opportunities almost everywhere, and as jon was just mentioning about the concern about higher interest etc.,u.s. bond decline, it means investors are si