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mike santoli, senior columnist for yahoo!ce can help us sort through this. 16 days the government was shutdown. how much economic impact was that? >> it is obviously unwelcome and a drag we didn't need but i don't think it is the crippling for the recovery. 10 of billions of dollars in lost output or income. boeing unnoticed retailers have not been able to get all the goods or do seasonal hiring because of federal inspectors and thinks like that. so i think we'll feel it for a few months but i don't think it derails the economy. jenna: how long does it take to catch up? double the time you're shut down to recover? >> i think when it comes to the supply chain stuff i think it will be a lot of indigestion for a while, for weeks. i don't think in terms of lost income it will be that big of a deal. i would expect consumer confidence to rebound. usually when you get the news-driven plunges in confidence that kind of recovers but doesn't really tell us much what it means for spending intentions. jenna: i like the indigestion descri

mike santoli, thank you for the info. jon: fox news alert and another emergency involving a russian nuclear powered submarine. this time it is a sub called the katerinberg. we're told it was pulled into dry-dock into the submarine service area shipyard and its nuclear missiles, its nuclear reactor pulled off and shut down but a fire broke out on wooden scaffolding that had been built around that submarine. we're told that the fire did not actually get inside the sub. no danger of a nuclear release or a nuclear spill. remember what happened a few years back, when the kursk, a soviet russian nuclear submarine sank and lost its entire crew. anyway this one appears to be not that serious. in the meantime the bp oil spill was one of america's worst environmental disasters ever but was it also a criminal act? word today that the justice department is considering filing charges against bp employees. we have the latest. >>> pregame festivities almost turn to tragedy but one linesman for the oregon ducks uses his eagle scout skill

mike santoli, senior columnist with yahoo! finance. he wrote a piece entitled, is wall street immune to d.c. dysfunction? if only we were all were, mike, d.c. dysfunction. what do you think is happening with the markets now? stocks seem to be on their own track. why? >> they are. only have to go back to november, december last year with the fiscal cliff fight and market was related to everything related to that fight. so, really you go back 40 years. it is actually an interesting dynamic. stocks do better on days when congress is in recession than when it is in session. very dramatic effect. has not held up this year. what is going on. sequester kicked in. it side shrined congress in general because they weren't going to touch automatic spending cuts. we know what the status is and didn't hurt the economy as much as was feared. stocks are normalizing based on what the corporate earnings picture looks like. jenna: the reason we're asking the question, because in anticipation of what comes up next few weeks. we'll be back to that point a

mike santoli is associated today tore at barrons magazine. you wrote about the market retesting or relapsing, what is the difference. >> retesting is we go back to the low levels we saw in august which is a few percent below where we are right now, in terms of the dow. that often happens when investors have to see is this going to hold, are we going to have a quart quarter rally. and is there maybe a higher percentage of recession last year. or is it like in 2008 when you had a global run on the banks, obviously the european debt crisis has people reminded of the way 2008 felt when you had these weekend meetings of the officials coming out on monday, maybe they had a deal, maybe the details had to be hammered out. maybe it was big enough for the market, maybe it wasn't maybe it was fast enough for investors maybe not. jenna: we had a meeting this weekend in europe. what is the worst case scenario. >> the worst case follows along the path of 2008 which did worse even significantly which was already a budding recession. europe is very likely i

mike santoli, associate editor of "baron's" magazine. jeffrey frankel, former member of president clinton's coins sieve economic advisors. welcome to you all. a lot of questions from our viewers about the truth. mike wants to know what is the true number, the real unemployment number all americans should know. >> you should know all of them. should know they're also estimates. right now the number for august of 96,000 net new jobs is an estimate based on surveys, obviously the 8% plus unemployment rate is a real number. basically number of people would like a job and are looking and can't find one right now. there are a larger number of underemployed workers or stopped working which is somewhere 15%. all of it kind of feeds into the same thing, a very sluggish and stubbornly unresponsive labor picture. one still showing positive job growth in the private sector. jenna: jeffrey one of reasons why the unemployment rate has come down because labor participation has dropped. the labor force is smaller. lee wants to know, why is labor partici

mike santoli is the associate editor of a magazine. >> the american economy is more stable at this pointence from the other part of the world. china is having a steep slow down, which is another one of the concerns out there. retail sales have held up relatively well. yes, the jobs report most recently was disappointing. we have 2 million more people working now than a year ago. obviously the underpinnings are okay right now. the housing market looks like it's showing signs, at least had bottomed even if it's not going to surge. jenna: does that still make us like the best kid in detention. >> to some degree. 2% growth, the latest quarter was revised down below 2%. that doesn't feel good, it's not impressive. it doesn't feel like the economy is in anything like a boom but we are unusually -- when i say stable, unlike other parts of the world the united states mostly makes things and does things for its own people. we are not really export-based, we aren't as reliant on everything going on in the rest of the the world as other countries. it's not exactly as if we're in a great economy rig

jenna: mike santoli is senior columnist for yahoo!e trip through a blast from the past there, mike. george bush was really focusing on fewer, less for the down payment. we're hearing something a little bit different from the president today. what makes what the president is expected to talk about different? >> well, there's some momentum behind the idea of winding down fannie mae and freddie mac which have been absorbed by the government in receivership since the housing bust. now, what's going to replace that? the fear is that banks will not be willing to provide 30-year mortgages, for example. they don't like to provide such a long-term loan unless they have some kind of backing by the government or some other entity. that's what fannie and freddie used to do, so the president seems like he's going to create another structure to have the government stand behind those mortgages. jenna: right now if i go out and get a mortgage, if i was qualified in a certain income bracket, the bank would say, okay, i'm going to give you the mortgage

mike santoli at "barron's" magazine. he has the right words for all this stuff.rt off what happened today, central banks, among others, what did they do to make the markets react this way? >> they're effectively reduce the cost for banks to borrow from central banks on short-term basis. it is credit creation. what it is basically making the sure the system doesn't get gummed up the way it did in 2008 and 2009 so banks can finance their operations there is shortage of dollars in the world for all the banks that want dollar based rates. jenna: i'm going to be the american federal reserve. why not. you come to me. said you need to borrow dollars. i give you dollars for what in exchange for euros or interest rate get paid back? >> it keeps the plumbing working in the system. it is extension of measure in september these same central banks initiated. it is extending that year-end and lowering cost to other banks. jenna: some say the euro will not survive the crisis in europe. if that happens are we out of luck what we lend out? >> the euro as currency will survive. me

mike santoli is an editor. let's take it bit by bit. we want to look forward to what is ahead. for the average consumer out there, what are you looking for, what are you watching? >> we really have a nervous vigil with every big piece of economic data from here on out to see if the soft patch which has extended into the second half of the year is a fleeting phase or we are in for another slump. i'm looking for retailers reports on back to school spending, that is a good kind of short term indicator. we are at the front end of the back to school section. consumers are looking for bargains, already and sales will start early. car sales, a somewhat disappointing number on car sales yesterday. we should see a rebound, a lot of that is low inventory of japanese-made cars due to the tsunami over there. we are looking for clues that happened last year that the summer was the including i shall period that gave way to a little bit of an up tick in growth afterward. jenna: that causes question. we saw last year an up tick in growth at the end of the year. was that pattern misleading? can

mike santoli, senior columnist at yahoo! finance.y when we talk about percentages. we'll quiz view arrest little later. hope you got it. what does it tell about the economy where it stand right now? >> couple things. this trend shows you it doesn't back just back five years. it goes to the '80s. financial economy grew faster than the real economy. that is the case since the crisis. financial markets have come back more powerful actually than the main street economy. central banks around the world keeping interest rates low. stock market new high. dividends up high. that is what wealthy people tend to own. that is, their share of corporate profits is what makes them much wealthier. jenna: you interesting that you mention corporate profits you read the headline, rich are taking it from us. they're getting rich because i'm not getting richer because that is my part of the pie. that doesn't seem to be the best description. >> that is not exactly a zero-sum game like that. what we show you the job creation we have gotten is in entry level

mike santoli, associate editor of "barron's" magazine.in, mike, because you wrote a article how the higher gas prices could potentially or you're exploring this what happens in the stock market what effect would it have in the stock market. >> there is price the stock market would be upended yet. i don't think we're there yet. it would take uptick in price globally -- all the instability in the world we're talking about is growing global economy that actually demand more oil almost every day. so it is no the strictly about traders or the iranian situation driving prices higher. if we got a spike like we did in 2008 went from 100 to $150 a barrel really fast, that would be a bigger problem. jenna: some of the democrats, senator schumer suggested have saudis increase their out put. that will be quicker way to affect the market. >> yeah. jenna: when you hear something like that on the business side what goes through your head the effect might be? >> the problem it is not unlimited tap over there, right? you have diminishing returns. there is

mike santoli, senior economist for yahoo! finance is with us.ike, is why is the market where it's at right now, at these record highs? >> yeah. the formula really has been strong corporate profits in general, profits more than doubled off the bottom in 2008. easy money, low interest rates. the federal reserve doing all it can to kind of prop up football markets and -- financial markets and try to encourage growth, and really that's going on around the world. so the fact that you have investor confidence that money's going to be there to support markets and business activity in general whether it's from japan, europe or the united states, plus profitable companies. so that's, basically, been the mix. jenna: how much is momentum a part of this? that's something we could probably all understand, right? everyone kind of gets into this mentality and can move the markets. is that part of it as well? >> it is part of it, especially, i think, going into this year. since mid november when the market got on this latest run, you really have had the sense t

mike santoli associate editor for "barron's" magazine. welcome to you both. mike, what does it mean for our money. >> bottom line, it doesn't change very much in the average person's deposits loans, things like that. it means a recognition, by the way this was months in coming, we were sort of expecting this. a recognition that that economic conditions and regulatory conditions have worked against banks. they're going to be less profitable. they may have higher borrowing costs. it might be one more thing a bit of a headwind to the economy. i don't think though a real big surprise or a big change in behavior just in the short term for the banks. jenna: charlies is our financial system safe? >> that's one of those very loaded questions. i can't tell you what is going to happen in europe. part of this is a reaction what is going in europe. we know all the banks have deals with european banks. they underwrite insurance policies on bank debt over there. so this could be foretelling something bad if europe, if the financial crisis in europe doesn't stop i will disa

joining us now, mike santoli, associate editor with baron's magazine. payne, a stocks news contributor. steve moore, back with us senior economics writer at "wall street journal" expectations is everything and we look at the jobs report and wonder did they meet expectations or not? mike, president said throughout history it takes countries up to 10 years for countries to recover from a financial crisis of this magnitude. is 10 years realistic? >> i don't know if 10 years is realistic. when you talk about a credit crunch fair yo it takes awhile. this is the way unfortunately a mature advanced economy these days seems to recover. the rate of annual job growth over the last 12 months is not really that much lower than it was in the mid 2000s and early '90's coming out of those recessions even though they are shallower recessions. i think this is unsatisfying reality we have relatively slow growth. we don't have private businesses that see the impetus to getting a aggressive on the job front. i'm not really sure it is a matter of tweaks in policy that will

mike santoli joins us and health saw francis -- melissa francis.ot good, but why i? >> no, i mean, it definitely feels like there has been a loss in basic confidence. we saw pretty big declines last week. we got what we are calling a fed cat bounce after the fed said they were going to keep printing money, the market was buoyed for a day or so. but now we go back to this sensation it's a loss of momentum, and a lot of the technology stocks, biotech, ipos that had felt like high fliers that didn't necessarily have the fundamentals behind them, that's where we're seeing the most bleeding, and that's what's making you feel like maybe this is the start of something bigger. jenna: and, mike, that is the question, isn't it? is this something on emotion, driven by momentum on emotion, or are there some big, fundamental shifts that we should be watching? what do you think is the? >> this initial phase really does seem like a lot of stocks that got way ahead of themselves, you know, the reason they call it a correction is because it seems like the trend wen

mike santoli is joining us on our panel, he's from barron's magazine, steve moore is also with us, he'se wall street journal," jeffrey frankel, a harvard professor who was also economic adviser for bill clinton is joining us as well. mike, let me just start with you. if you could give a grade to the unemployment report, what grade would you give it today? is. >> well, it's probably in the c +/b -range, the the same grade you would have been giving it. it's better than fear, we didn't want to see a further deterioration in the labor force. we didn't see that. it stopped a string of more disappointing numbers. but really this is right on the 12-month average of net job gains somewhere around 160,000. so it's unsatisfying, but it's still steady, if uninspiring growth. jenna: jeff, one of the ways this was described this morning and the many commentators it's not bad enough to cause a panic, but not good enough to reaffirm all the policies that have been in place over the last couple years. how do you see it? >> well, i think 163,000 jobs created is a good number, it's better than expected,