rate hikes -- the rbnz looking to downshift rate hikes. vladimir putin vowing to press on with his war in ukraine as he suspends moscow's last nuclear treaty with washington. >> i'm at the goldman sachs global macro conference in hong kong, day two, bringing together the bank's biggest names and industry leaders. we will hear from the -- david kostin about why 2023 means the return of alpha after a macro driven 2022. we will have a conversations about the outlook for european stocks and the war in ukraine as it heads into a second year. >> take a look at how u.s. futures are coming online in the asian session. we are seeing a little support after the s&p 500 was in the red in the new york session. the dow erasing all of this year's gains. it's all the worst day in three months -- it saw the worst day in three months. a combination of fear over geopolitics, poor corporate outlooks, and rising 10-year yie lds, close to the 4% level, as the markets try to reprice where the fed is headed from here. we have u.s. pmi numbers coming in above expe

kiwi debt down before the rbnz as well. when it comes to leadership from treasuries it is a big week when it comes to corporate issuance as well as sizable bond options. oil, some declines. u.s. stockpiles and the opec supply in focus. the focus for us at the moment is the rbnz decision. let's bring in our next guest who is bullish when it comes to in particular the tech space within equities. joining us is the ceo of sg capital. we had a massive week last week with the anticipation before nvidia and the big melt up following those numbers. do you think there is further to go? there are concerns with extra neri gains -- extraordinary gains. do you think you should be adding to those positions? >> we are at the beginning of the melt up. we are not seen the irrational phase. we believe there is more meaningful upset for the nasdaq -- meaningful upside for the nasdaq. if you look at the ease with which the market has digested new expectations, they went from pricing in seven to eight cuts of the fed to three cuts in line with

the rbnz was not expecting it just yet. it is likely to last for most of the year and that is they point to talk about, they have already done a lot in the -- and now they have a difficult challenge if markets begin to believe the rbnz exchange rate. kathleen: a technical recession in the u.s. is a bit different because there was a committee that determines when it is a recession. in the case of new zealand, it is a rounding error. underneath it all, how big is the slow down? is it enough to bring down inflation? is it enough to make the rbnz think it has to move before is seen as a meaningful decline in inflation? >> that is right. i think we are going to see, with the gdp, declines. when we look at what is going on with new zealand, we have had the surge in migration. even though it was a rounding error, you are seeing a big curtailment of consumer spending. the rbnz, we have the data about the average interest rates being paid by households to may. even though interest rates have risen, they increase in what consumers ar

shery: paul allen with the preview of the rbnz rate decision later.bloomberg's expert editors ahead. we are seeing asian bonds gain ground and follow treasuries gains. on speculation of a dovish pivot by the fed. we had seen a decline after weak results from the previous session. we are seeing a little bit of a reversal with the 10-year yield trending down at the moment. also seeing kiwi bonds gain ground ahead of the rbnz rate decision. this is bloomberg. ♪ a few years ago, i came to saona, they told me there's no electricity on the island. we always thought that whatever we did here would be an emblem of what small communities can achieve. trying to give a better life to people that don't have the means to do it. si mi papá estuviera vivo, sé que él tuviera orgulloso también de vivir de esta viviendo una vida como la que estamos viviendo ahora. es electricidad aquí es salud. shery: you are watching "daybreak: asia." berkshire hathaway has announced the death of long time vice chairman charlesnumger. warren buffett is honoring his right hand man sayi

we will be speaking with the rbnz governor later this week.ou don't want to miss that conversation and of course, we are talking about dollar strength given some of that risk on sentiment that we had today across wall street. concerns that the economic recovery will lose momentum amid the resurgence of covid weighing on consumer discretionary stocks. u.s. listed chinese stocks something. let's bring in our markets reported. u.s. retail sales numbers really not helping. >> it was a risk option. risk off worries. you have it with the delta variant already building up and you have the retail sales, a disappointing miss. for a consumer economy, never good news. a sustained message across corporate earnings, bank of america fund survey. it is across the board here. haidi: when it comes to chinese adr's, also falling again. beijing ramping up on its crackdown. it has to work out what an adequate discount is going to be for these stocks. >> while china tried to moderate its growth, some of the regulatory scrutiny -- they do actually make sense. for t

the rbnz meets later today. other part of this story of the rally here is also what we were seeing in terms of the rsi is so most of these markets at oversold conditions coming into the rally so some strategists saying the pessimism really had reached such extreme levels that i bounce was just a question of when it would happen but phil, the thing that is very important is not to get caught up into thinking that the market bottom is here. it could be but we could be in another bull market or trap rather. we are still in a bear market and this could be another relief rally and this idea really based around a fed pivot perhaps is not near at all because if you bring up this eco-u.s. function here, we can take a look. these are all of the fed speakers that are coming up over the coming day. we already heard from mary daly earlier speaking at the council on foreign relations. she basically called inflation a corrosive disease that is eroding income. it really does paint this picture that fed officials are still very

the rbnz decision. basis point hike to try to get ahead of inflation before maybe a pause? that decision is a few moments away. we bring you the latest analysis as we get that announcement. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> you're

and, a preview of the rbnz policy decision, next. plan to remain diligent in setting monetary policy to return the economy for stability in a timely way and be judicious in balancing the risks to minimize the pain of that journey. shery: the cleveland fed president, speaking after the u.s. labor market report showed a cooling-off that could bolster the case for less hawkish fed policy paths. policy editor kathleen is back with not only what loretta mester said but more as well. >> we were talking about this earlier. what struck me about the jobs report today was as much as bond yields fell a bit, when you look at the report, it may be cooling from a hot level but it's not really cold and not even close yet. we are talking about job openings and labor turnover, a survey the fed does. it showed the vacancies which have been closely watched since the pandemic when we came out of the pandemic it peaked at 12 million vacancies, people just didn't want to get back to work. before the pandemic, you could see it was averaging around 7000, 80

expressed by rbnz officials.that has come in double what was expected to be in december, before the gabriel storm that devastated the north island of new zealand, repairs are going to be going on for months, it will need billions of dollars, that will be an expansion -- expansionary, it will add to output. along with a surge of migration, 100,000 or more migrants are expected, new people in new zealand, helping to fill job positions, etc. a 2% rise in the population will result. they will be bringing more demand. that is another reason why people are saying, maybe they will do a 50 basis point rate hike. he has never been loathed what something that surprises people a bit. -- with something that surprises people a bit. some are betting on 50 basis points. they at least as they update their forecast, could not move that vision of a 5.5% terminal right to 6% --ate to 6%? at least a 25 basis point hike is the messaging it will be focused on. >> speaking of messaging, with a meeting to out tomorrow, what are we looki

still above the rbnz target.he rbnz government late last year, he said inflation expectations are going to be key and could force us to move faster. another reason i figure people think they will be aggressive. 50 basis points in one day? i think not. that is the consensus of economists who follow this. bloomberg thinks that as new zealand opens its borders, omicron cases are rising, that is going to hurt workers for some businesses. but they expect wage increases to slow, one thing that will make it did -- a difference. and they are also looking at the housing market cooling-off. mortgage rates has risen. that might allow the rbnz to move on rates without having to be ultra aggressive. haidi: on the other end of the inflation picture, we have the bank of america call that beckoned -- that bank of japan will have to reduce amulets. that is a big call. kathleen: and they are saying in october that the boj is going to go for that. the real rate is slightly negative, zero .1% or something like that. they will get it

the rbnz has charged ahead.ight player like that depresses volatility and curbs -- deters foreign investors and bank earnings as well. volatility is much greater than japan's, but it is declining. raisevernment agreed to -- purchases to 60% of the market as well. this is an interesting situation for the rbnz. it continues to grow. >> paul allen in sydney with the latest on the rbnz. malaysia's record budget may face a tough path to approval in parliament. opposition parties are urging the finance to allocate more andy to a covid-19 fund improved social initiatives. >> the announcement has been -- and recognize the issues we face .oday it is the largest budget ever in malaysia's history. people,support not just but also the economy. it will allow us to fight the pandemic. it is highly focused on sectors that will give the highest impact. the other point i want to talk his own health care. we are spending a lot of money to ensure the government is willing to pay. >> an aggressive budget requires rigorous spending.

sophie: this is the rbnz's financial stability report.e uncertainty for the new zealand economy. kiwi stocks lower by six times the 1%. the kiwi dollar pairing from an earlier jump sparked by the surprise beat in the first quarter jobs data. this as unemployment came down. the labor market still has some way to go. ozzie futures are pointing lower. the outlook for aussie stocks looking more optimistic. jp morgan raising its target to 7500. gains of 7%. more than double what we have seen for the msci aipac index. australian stock correlations with commodities a big factor with the raw material companies the second-biggest rating on the australian gauge. switching out the chart, the commodities rally has been broad. the cyclical recovery boosts demand for everything from energy to metals and agricultural goods. with this momentum, that has pushed the commodity price gauge 211 year highs. we are in overheated territory at the highest level in 13 years. shery: for more on the outlook on commodities, we are joined by the founder and ceo of van

a preview of that rbnz decision.apan's famous bullet train, riding it will get more expensive for tourists. we are looking behind price hikes of up to 77%. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: the rally and treasury yields to fresh multi-year highs taking the dollar to the highest evel in 10 months. on the other cited the trade, weakness for other currencies, even the japanese yen despite that it strengthen so much on intervention chatter. it is down against the u.s. dollarowards the 149 level. let's talk about more what is happening in japan, because prices are being raised for the japanese train for the first time in four decades. our reporter has the details. so how much does this have to do with what i mention how cheap the japanese yen and tourists are coming in and we been talking about this inflationary pressures in the country as well. >> good morning. they have just hiked the price of the great passes used by tourist and not residents, the first right hey kai -- rate hike and 40 years. it is not believed that it will

yvonne: that was the rbnz assistant governor.ng to japan, a new board member sees inflation creeping up in the country. let's bring in our managing editor in tokyo. good news for japan, we are finally seeing some inflation. >> yes, but the cause of inflation is similar to what we are seeing elsewhere. it is largely led by fuel prices and possibly the impact of the weaker yen. these are not the healthy type of inflation that the bank of japan wants to see in order for them to change their fundamental view toward the economy. it is interesting how they mentioned that these factors were possibly going to impact japanese economy. whether that would be enough to change any sort of policy outlook is still quite unclear. paul: we are also seeing the yen week at the moment by the standards we have become accustomed to. he would be good news. she is lukewarm on that as well, isn't she? >> there are two things that play. one, she doesn't want to say anything that would sway or influence the market. a weaker yen is positive for the exporter

what happens for the rbnz?ou have to favorite quickly to an easing bias -- would you have to favorite cook quickly to an easing bias? governor orr: governor orr: we have had very strong population growth. consumption per person is actually declining, so monetary policy is working. but there are more people in the country, so record demand -- aggregate demand remains very tight. when inflation is declining, our concern is that it might not decline sufficiently fast. we are in no mood for cutting until we see inflation expectations firmly back in the bed. i pivot -- a pivot would be too big a word, but where we are with corinne: and being too high at the moment, we have limited headroom for positive inflation surprises. hence our reasonably firm stance that we are taking. haidi: you mentioned you are in no mood to entertain any leniency when it comes to inflation, because the projections show you will not start cutting until inflation is well within 1%-3%, close to 2%, the midpoint. . do you need to be thoroughly

watching new england ahead of the rbnz -- watching the new zealand ahead of the rbnz decision. looking at another 50 basis point hike, trying to get ahead of the curve. shery: take a look at u.s. futures right now rebounding after we saw those losses being pared back. we still had losses on the s&p 500. with the defense companies gaining ground and we actually saw them now at the moment rebounding a little bit. the -- even futures up .07% after we had social media companies erasing $100 billion given the profit warning from snap. we are watching treasuries and we have that safe haven rally. the 10-year yielded dropping. right now crude is rebounding after losing ground for a second session in new york. remember, we had the u.s. announcing the release of strategic crude. the department energy offering to sell as many as 40.1 million barrels of oil, haidi. haidi: let's get more with o ur asia editor. you take a look at what happened across the tech complex. there is no exhaustion yet when it comes to the selloff. andreea: hi, haidi. no, it doesn't look like it. even though the na

shery: how will the yvonne: -- the rbnz affect others?nition and they have been the two, if you look at rba governor philip lowe's comments in jackson hole, if you have your just rates above that zero or below and you need to use unconventional monetary policy tools, you want to get in front of that and get in early. i guess the nearest analogy is the rba and what they might do. here are some signs from that, when philip lowe, the rba governor, speaks very soon unconventional monetary policy. haidi: in a few minutes time we will be getting that announcement from the rbnz, thank you, james mcintyre in sydney. we are about to hear from rbnz in a few minutes and we will be hearing from the man himself on friday in an exclusive conversation at 6:30 friday morning if you are watching in hong kong. let's check is this flash headlines. nike is breaking up with amazon, ending a pilot project where it sold its products on the website. the company says the decision is part of its focus to get more direct relations with consumers, and that it will i

this as we await the rbnz's policy decision.likely to tighten by the third quarter of 2022. we are expecting the central bank might push back against that tightening chatter. haidi: coming up next, we get more on the new zealand policy decision. why the rbnz may be dispelling talks on a v-shaped recovery. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> it is not just unemployment or inflation or the employment rate. it is all three of those. they need to be above certain levels. that was the big sigh of relief on wall street. >> it is clear he things we need to go big as president biden does. >> we are at a very precarious and unique moment of economic crisis and that is why we feel confident we will be better off if we take these actions definitively. >> we think inflation is going to be a messy story and that is going to keep the fed on the sidelines. we are constructive. haidi: some guests on bloomberg television >> -- some guest on bloomberg television earlier reacting to jay powell's testimony. maintain current bond buying program for the foreseea

's that our risk for the rbnz? governor orr: it is a risk. don't think it's a new or different risks, however, and we have been doing a lot of work to see if the monetary transmission mechanism has changed at all, how impactful our interest rates on that domestic homegrown insulation. all of our work says it is business as usual. we just have to be patient. of course you mentioned the potential supply-side or relative price risks, they are always going to exist. for example, we are talking about being inside the inflation target band in the second half of this year, below 3%, and then at 2% of the same time the following year, what is holding this up? we have had to make assumptions around relative price pressures, including shipping costs as an example. but the quarrel of monetary policy is working, we have always been battered by various price shocks. annabelle: i think that goes back to your point about the ability two weather upside surprises to inflation. the risk of those really comes down to new zealand being a major commodity exporter

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why so much uncertainty willunding what the rbnz do?hing to see bits appear ahead of this decision, clearly a lot of uncertainty in the market, after that r.b.a. hold yesterday. twoi think there are schools of thought on the rbnz, having adopted bias in march, there's expectation the governor will want to get on with the job. domestic data the last few weeks soft so he's been delivered the conditions he needs to justify pulling the cut trigger. on the other hand, the economy is not in bad shape. growth has slowed but it's still above 2% and as we saw from the yesterday, there's an equal argument to sit on your hands and wait and see what happens. urgency to bel cutting rates. is the r.b.a.'s decision to hold have any implications for the rbnz? matt: it shows there's no urgency there. paradoxically, if you want to get stimulus into your economy, you want to get a lower and boost that inflation outlook, you want to be doing it when you're one of banks, notentral when everyone else is doing the be thatng so it could it's delivered the rbnz

ahead, we speak to the head of the rbnz governor -- the rbnz, and whether -- on whether the inflation dragon has been slain. this is wilbur. ♪ -- for financial insights from merrill. is he hailing a ride to the concert hall? no. he's making sure his portfolio and retirement plans work in harmony. they want to adopt a child and build a new home. so they're talking numbers with their merrill adviser. she's not researching her next role. she's learning how to handle market ups and downs without the drama. personalized advice so impressive your money never stops working for you with merrill. a bank of america company. 76% of 23andme health customers surveyed reported taking healthier working foactions.th merrill. because they know health isn't just a future state. health happens now. start your dna-powered health journey today with personalized insights from 23andme. >> let's take a look at corporate stories, jd.com's u.s. trading shares fail -- felt after they changed -- they change their merchandise. profitability of the core retail missed estimates as they boosted marketing expenses to

the white line is the rbnz official cash rate. low in march of 2020 and now with inflation, the turquoise line, it is back above 3%. home prices in august up nearly 26% annualized rate. a red hot housing market. that is why they were ready to do a 50 basis point hike in august until the government locked down economy because of the outbreak. they had to wait. we spoke with the governor of the rbnz and asked about october. he said they will be watching inflation and jobs and it was definitely a live meeting. >> we retained the right but not the obligation to move policy when we think is necessary. >> they are expected to do a 25 point basis hike. the 50 point basis hike is no longer on the table. our team says they will wait. the virus is taking a toll and they will signal a rate hike in november. shery: we only have a few minutes to find out. kathleen hays with a preview of that decision. the world is seeing the first energy crisis of the transition, and it will not be the last. how much of this energy crisis has to do with the gr

the kiwi dollar jumping to recovery after the rbnz came through with the 50 basis point hike. the bank of new zealand saying that these rallies are really opportunities to sell, given the poor growth outlook for the rest of the world. sydney futures looking pretty flat at the moment. also watching dollar-yen, just over 127 to the dollar. the latest fed, minutes making it crystal clear that there is consensus for 50-basis point rate hikes in the next couple of minutes. meantime, china's economic prospects for 2022 keep dimming. joining us now is kathleen hayes, enda curran, and andreea papuc. will start with the fed minutes. the fed pause in play here. what do you think might happen for future policy moves? clean: it depends on inflation, that is the message here. the idea is to frontload rate hikes. they have confirmed from the minutes and may 4, and meanwhile, jay powell said likely more 50-basis point rate hikes in the next two meetings. other fed officials have echoed it. so now it is crystal clear that this is what they are planning to do. all of them said they need to mov

we are joined this hour by the rbnz governor, adrian or. -- orr. haidi: let's take a quick look at markets. we saw that exuberance over the moderna vaccine progress really dissipate quickly. we saw the late session swing when it comes to trading in the u.s. as it has concerns over the efficacy data from moderna causing some concern. take a look at the futures in asia. we are seeing downside when it comes to futures trading in japan, australia, and hong kong, although we are looking at a little bit more of a positive open when it comes to trading on the mainland, and just also keeping an eye when it comes to energy markets as well given that we are starting to see backwardation between that june and july contract for the wti, suggesting some of the storage issues have started to ease. let's take a deeper look at the markets. investors are increasingly debating whether the broader stock market has become disconnected from the fundamentals. if we look closer, the sectors can tell a different story but the view from the president of pence wealth manage

we'll be watching the rbnz rate decision, of course, quite closely. said, no change expected, but still the kiwi dollar in focus on that. aussie stocks online to the downside and we're watching brant crude fractionally higher as we get trading underway but traders really caught kathleen it's that story of shrinking inventories. but then on the other side, you've got that story of china demand. and we've been discussing across these hours just how much malaise is seeping into the chinese economy, not just from loan demand, shrinking exports, but other factors that that activity data yesterday. certainly a lot for investors to be weighing there as well. the push pulled away there. let's move on to our next guest saying he's underweight on emerging markets in japanese equities. and the other side of that is he's overweight us stocks. karen calder, head of equity research for asia at joining us now. so, karen, i just have to start with some big news in the last 24 hours, actually, all week, lots of big news every 24 hours. but us retail sales stronger tha

we have the rbnz decision coming up next.every day in business brings something new. so get the flexibility of the new mobile service designed for your small business. introducing comcast business mobile. you get the most reliable network with nationwide 5g included. and you can get unlimited data for just $30 per line per month when you get four lines or mix and match data options. available now for comcast business internet customers with no line-activation fees or term contract required. see if you can save by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. >> it is not :00 a.m. in beijing and shanghai. welcome to bloomberg markets china open. >> we are counting down to the open of trade. let's get to the top stories. >> the biggest gain in two weeks as china joins the u.s. and other nations in a coordinated release of reserves. >> investors awaiting a likely rate hike. we will get tha

the rbnz is forecasting a recession, whereas the rba is forecasting a couple of years of weak growth. the u.s. trying to figure out where the federal reserve will go when it comes to rate hikes. what can we expect from payroll data and how that will contribute to the narrative we are seeing with treasury yields plunging again in that standoff against the fed? >> we had a drumbeat of weak data this week coming out of the u.s.. with jobless claims, job cuts, and now with the private sector jobs report from adp coming out overnight, and finally services pmi. the survey of how the services industry is doing also coming in weaker than expected. with all of that as a backdrop, even a really strong payrolls report might be seen as something of a lagging indicator, and more of the sort of thing if the fed response to this rather than the rest of the data and goes on in hikes, they risk a policy error that will make even slow down even worse that will potentially cement a recession for the u.s., and quite possibly a tough one. that is why we saw 10 year yields hit fresh lows, we have seen the

haidu: matthew there with a preview of the rbnz in the coming hours.e latest crypto crackdown is ending up, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ kathleen: let's get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. in abby has emerged as the front runner for citigroup's retail assets. said to be in advanced stages, valued at more than one big and. an agreement would make it australia's second-biggest biggest credit card player. it added that discussions would not necessarily lead to a deal. reports of trademark application forb couponiz. it could launch a brand focusing on small business operators. the stock has climbed about 15% in three days and has gained 31% since it debuted in march. the dow jones reporting and into talks after the founder change their minds about a sale. some employees are said to have thought the company would be a strange fit for efficiencies. the wall street journal reported the two sides were discussing a deal whose value range from 15-20,000,000,000 dollars, including debt. and the biggest dam return since 2010 on the rally in glo

the rbnz has fallen through with a very aggressive tightening cycle.uestion today will be what happens when the bank of korea, will they hike again or perhaps be the first to stand pat? >> the expectation seems to be that they will actually stand pat. our next guest expects the bank of korea to be the first mention -- major central bank deposit on rakes -- rates. kathleen, always great to have you. the expectation right now seems to be that the bok will downgrade growth forecasts given the challenges that the economy faces. how tricky will the messages be for the bok not to tell markets that they are going to cut immediately? >> you are exactly right. we are expecting a hawkish hold this morning. we do see a no change decision at 3.5%. at the same time, we see one or two dissenters who were still call for a hike. that is likely to be diluted down because of the growth forecast that's likely to be revised downward towards 1.6 or even 1.5. that should message to the market that the bok is unlikely to continue hiking from here. haidi: you are pointing at

it should be said the rbnz already indicated that they do plan to keep rates on hold.y are done with tightening for now. enough work has been done to bring down price pressures but that is the market reaction so far. shery: imf managing director -- china's gdp to grow 5% this year and says beijing has a policy space to push for stimulus. she spoke exclusively to haslinda amin from the g20 finance ministers meeting in india. >> what we are predicting for china is growth. this is way better than where they were last year. last year, for the first time in four decades, china grew less than the global economy on average. from 3% last year, they are climbing up. growth is slower than is necessary. consumer confidence is not as strong as it has to be. why? because of the problems in the real estate sector. we also see export from china slowing down because growth in the world economy is slowing down. demand for manufacturing products from china is slowing down. what can china do about it? our recommendation is first, china can encourage, through monetary policy steps, especi

a couple of central bank decisions from the rbnz.o the bells to look at how this first market open of the week is looking. >> absolutely. they kick off the week here. starting with those jobs numbers, given the news we saw, treasuries as well as and the week. more than 200,000 payrolls added engine. that was a mess on estimates but in earnings they increased a little bit more than had been forecast. the unemployment rate edged down in the u.s. as well. a bit of a mixed jobs picture coming through. investors clear we are going to see a hike later this month and that is what we are seeing in terms of the market reaction but the big question will be what happens later on in the year. essentially, investors were split when it gets to what is ahead in terms of the fed productions. the one we will be watching over the coming days, it is off the lows last week. we could force it to move back to her 145 level. this is what comes through on the inflation picture as well. it is one of the key things watching over the coming days. the expectati

the rbnz just overnight practically had to decide we were going to hike the key rate.arned may be a 50 basis point hike and they did not because of the lockdowns new zealand and the impact that could have on the economy. that is the big question now. haidi: the weakness that we have seen in the won, does that play into things? bret: you have to wonder. the bank of korea is coming and superhot. you have virus cases. maybe it would not be a bad thing to do a rate hike, especially when you think the fed might start tapering bond purchases. our bloomberg intelligence team has a metric of covid resilience and it has to do with investment portfolios, the amount of global investment, and the idea that if the fed starts tapering, they could start removing capital from korea. here is two very important things about the charts. there is a margin. that is not going to hike rates right away but moving stimulus would be a form of tightening and look at this. the bank of korea was among the first in asia of central banks start tightening in 2017. they do not mind getting out ahead.

coming up next, the rbnz governor says rates need to remain low for a long time.ng the supreme court to prevent his tax returns being handed to a prosecutor in new york. he is filing an appeal that aims to give him broad immunity to criminal investigations while in office. it is the first time the justices have been brought into the president's personal business dealings. the case will test their willingness to intervene on his behalf. president trump's personal lawyer rudy giuliani is facing a federal investigation for possible campaign-finance violations and failure to register as a foreign agent. u.s. officials say the inquiry could include charges on conspiracy or breaking laws against bribing foreign officials. it presents a serious threat to the president from a man described by john bolton as, quote, a hand grenade. and huawei is bracing for more pressure from the united states as attorney general william barr backs a plan to prohibit federal funding. comes just days before the fcc votes on an order barring u.s. carriers from using subsidies to buy network

it is likely the rbnz will stand pat. the china market opens and earnings season coming into full swing this week with the end of beijing's tech crackdown setting the tone. felix joins us now from hong kong for a preview. what can we expect from tech earnings in china this week? >> yes, of course, tencent is a big focus this week. last week we saw alibaba signaling a comeback, and for tencent we may see a 20% jump in advertisement businesses. for other businesses we may see a 10% jump, so the chinese tech sector, the sentiment is improving, and now we have heard that china is ramping up their crackdown and they are supporting private enterprise in order to support the company -- the economy. paul: so we have a company reporting today. what are we watching their? >> we just mentioned the chinese tech sector, but it may not be the same for the semiconductor industry. just like samsung reported the worst decline since 2009 and tsmc saying the downturn after the pandemic may be longer than expected, so from hon hai we may see

leadthink the rbnz will the official rate on change 0.25%.icymakers in new zealand have said they accommodated to keep rates there for at least next year. i think it is time to really reflect how the economy is starting to recover following some easing in social distancing measures, and of course, also to see how the economy is hasonding to -- the rbnz injected. if the central bank decides to do something today, i think it will be likely about fine-tuning its asset purchase program. coversow, the program $30 billion worth of government of local $30 billion government funding debt. those numbers could be made bigger today. in the meantime, of course, the fed continues to push back on the idea that they will be forced to go into negative rate territory by fall of this year. we look at the bond markets and they are still hedging against that risk. is it something of an inevitability? would it create more problems than it could potentially solve in the u.s. economy? sounds like the fomc members are not too eager about negative policy rates in the

this is a comprehensive review of how the rbnz conducts policies. phase one will focus on the question of a dual mandate, and it will then look at committee decisions. an interesting set up where they have several layers within the bank itself. the central bank itself. look at policy. it boils down to the head of the central bank. the governor. advisors within the bank. that is narrowed down again. they want to look at how that is done. she said she wants external in thisalso on -- decision-making process. it seems like they also want to move from a system where ultimately the governor makes a decision to bring it out to a more committee-based process. whatever happens, the rbnz is set to hold it steady at one .75%, a record low. if you take a look at #btv 8468, you can get a nice, clear, picture of what is going on, because you can see the cash 1.75%. there it is at target from 1% to 3%, they want to keep it close to 2%. you can see they are right about where they should be. it is interesting that they are part of the new zealand institute for econ

it is not just the rbnz we are focusing on.details coming out regarding the bank of japan meeting next week, and we have a bloomberg school with sources telling us officials are likely to be wary of tweaking or scrubbing their yield control stimulus and also to keep the cap in-place at five point -- 5%. the yen has been trending lower off that, also keeping it i on the nikkei, a little bit weaker at the start of trading. we are continuing to monitor lines from other central bankers, of course when the fed's williams speaking at an event new york. he says, yes, the banking sector has stabilized, but the issue is around access households and businesses have two credit, and that can be something to focus on a very closely. what that means for the fed is we are seeing the weaker won coming through, it is at its lowest level against the greenback since late november. another story we are tracking in korea is with the kospi. off when four of 1% this morning to a bull market. we are seeing a lot of activity of day traders piling into

what have we learned from the financial stability report from the rbnz?new zealand, some of the hottest housing markets in the world. it's great if you're selling or building a house. not so great if you are a first-time homebuyer trying to get into them. according to the report, they do see a rising risk of a housing market correction. a 30% jump in home prices over the past year. can they do much about it? the head of the rbn said it's really that the government is taking steps, it's more of a bit part but that would maybe support the financial stability report, they do see further removal of stimulus in the medium-term. they watching medium-term inflation and employment indications. they are concerned that even though they're getting past the pandemic and moving from pandemic to endemic disease, that businesses may see the pullback of support from the government as a problem. and what about consumers who spending patterns may have changed? all concerns for 30 rbnz, but the door still seems to be wide open for a rate hike at their next meeting in novemb

the rbnz is the big one for us today. basis point move, the fourth straight hike of such magnitude. the most aggressive tightening from new zealand since more than three decades ago. in terms of the reaction from stocks, we are seeing equities shrugging off these concerns, they are more focused on what we had out of the u.s.. those rated -- speaking to the strength of the consumer we are still sitting there. we are seeing indexes moving a little higher this morning. haidi: let's turn to citroen -- 61 -- see schwan's a bright a threat to their electricity supply. let's bring in bloomberg energy supporter -- reporter. we just heard the government has ordered a shutdown for toyota and others. how long can we expect this last? >> the stoppages through this weekend. it is not the longest stoppage, there is some hope that maybe bring comes. that could refill this and help the situation ease a bit. to be certain, there is nothing set in stone. there are local reports from the meteorologists in china saying the seat could last th

kathleen: he also added the rbnz is not being asked to target home prices.led this saying the central bank was responsible were ready to work with the government but clearly defending what they have done so far and what it means in terms of helping to boost growth even if you are concerned about housing affordability. as we continue to monitor economic recovery, in terms of resilience, we heard from li keqiang giving a pretty up beat view as to growth prospects for next year. kathleen: he certainly did. people have been wondering about the people's bank of china. sees theer said he economy returning to its proper range next year. i want to pull up another chart, just looking about how china had that very unusual drop down in growth and now it has shot back up to just about 5%. he says china's macro policies will remain stable, effective, and sustainable. in particular, the strategy will allow consumption to lead growth. people criticize them. they'll open up to foreigners and we will absolutely not pursue a trade surplus. response toonly a president trump. i

the kiwi dollar to three-week low ahead of the rbnz decision.stock movers after an five-day decline, south bancshares swinging in the wake of its profit rebound. switching out the board to check in on softbank this morning on the back of earnings we got on tuesday. shares under pressure by nearly 1% and rocky 10 falling -- raku an falling after registering first quarter loss. aftera under pressure posting a first quarter loss in line with expectations. let's check in on bloomberg in sydney. rising as much as 2.7% after the posse lender announced dividends seven-year low. magellan financial rising after the fund manager pushed full-year profit with funds under management growing by 26%. because, quickly, i just want to turn to the credit market. yield floated pickup in asia's primary dollar bond market tuesday, but the mood may shift amid warnings the rally may falter on worries may plateau. , fading tos fading the lowest order ratio since the credit route dried up. hsbc warned the asian credit rally is running just a bit too hot, so expecting sp

we have seen the kiwi be the outperformer after the hawkish rbnz statement.ing in two rate hikes this year alone. that drop in the dollar reflected across most of these currencies. the dollar china trading at 6.43. a little bit of softness when it comes to trading. the bloomberg index is seeing a limit of a pick up a broad decline. the most in about two weeks after jay powell pushing back on those expectations the central bank would taper anytime soon. lots more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the domestic demand recovery on the consumption side has not been as strong as policymakers were expecting. >> they acknowledge a slowdown. >> the downward depression the second half this year is bigger than people had thought. >> the numbers may be less than initially expected. it sets china up for a good second half. >> the weakness persists throughout the rest of the year. >> looking to the second half, we need monetary policy side to support economic growth. ? some chance again. the probability is low. darker we forecast another cut in for by 50 basis points. >> so

we are extending losses to 1% off of the back of a more hawkish than expected rbnz decision.ar also seeing a bit of weakness there as well. taking a look at how the futures session is setting up. we continue to monitor the developments between russia and ukraine. joe biden expanded on sanctions. the kremlin saying that separatists and ukraine sought help from president putin. we are seeing a pretty flat session when it comes to the trading of s&p futures as well. nasdaq worsening. u.s. 10 year yield on the 196. an upside pro -- push in growth -- crude prices as well as gold. shery: let's bring in julia wang from j.p. morgan private bank for more clarity on what's happening in the market. as we continue to see geopolitical tensions and uncertainty about where central bank's around the world are going, how do you position amid all of this volatility? julia: thanks for having me on the show. i think that one of our near-term focuses is definitely to right size risk exposures entity risk to some degree if possible. that's exactly what you said earlier. obviously, the market has b

the rbnz governor is said to announce a new stimulus tool aimed it driving borrowing costs.s on wednesday. the program is seen as a key step toward the rbnz, cutting the official tax rate into negative territory next year. the prime minister of singapore has offered a pessimistic view of the post by race economy, saying the economy is unlikely to pick up in a vibrant way anytime soon. some sectors are showing improvement but others are expected to remain in would because suspended animation. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. shery: let's get a quick check of the markets. we are seeing a relief rally across asian equity markets with asian stocks at the highest 2018.since february the nikkei at a 29 year high. the korean kospi gaining ground. the march in for the asx 200, which is gaining ground. we continue to see strength for currency markets with the korean levels that we have not seen in months. kiwi stocks at a record high. hai

kathleen: let's recap the rbnz a little bit. they did hold their rates at a record low.not protest against the strong currency as some thought. graham wheeler is the head of the rbnz, also signaling they are not going to raise rates for a considerable period. he thinks inflation will move lower. another said bsp is also meeting. no policy change because inflation has decelerated a little bit. gdp growth looks lower. taiwan's central bank also seen on hold. they have got a stronger currency that is suppressing inflation, so no change expected. a central banks can surprise, so we will see what happens next. yvonne: kathleen hays, thank you. still ahead, waiting for their health check. take a look at how u.s. banks will do in the annual stress test. betty: trumps criticism of china's role in handling north korea hurt ties between washington and beijing. a are going to talk to professor at a university next. that is donald trump speaking at a rally in iowa. this is bloomberg. ♪ yvonne: "daybreak: asia this is live from hong kong. i'm yvonne man. betty: i'm betty liu. china h

latestthe rbnz is the central bank to test the new dovishness. traders are betting on a rate cut later. it are markets kicking off trading in asia. let's turn to sophie. we are seeing some risk on moods already. sophie: checking in on how we we racing for this session, have the rbnz expected to hold out its policy rate. going to be getting fourth-quarter gdp growth. flipping the board to check in on the market open in tokyo, we have the nikkei 225 continuing to rebound from a one-month low. we have the nikkei 225 adding .8%. arek in on how stocks faring. stocks in seoul gaining .1% while the shares have been fluctuating in the session. we have been trading fairly flat. kiwi stocks are climbing for a sixth straight day to an october 2 high. if i can pull up very quickly, this stock gaining ground. a kyoto reportee that the company could see ¥80 billion investment from a group of chinese and taiwanese companies. we are seeing a move in sk hynix as macron string -- micron grows.h check in on sk hynix. we are seeing the stock move higher by 2.1%. dem

the rbnz is.here , down tobig surprise 0.25%. that is the white line. how the two-year note yield is seeming to anticipate or open the door to those negative rates. and finance minister grant robinson, a great interview we had right here on bloomberg television, saying the rbnz at gdp reboundr the which he is looking for. he said that people thought maybe they will not sound so easy at this meeting. he said nevertheless they will consider that in a negative rate decision in 2021. if things pick up, does that mean they will not go ahead to negative rates? for now, they are really sitting back. number one you have the october 17 election just around the corner. maybe do not want to make any big moves at of that. that is what central banks are often seen doing. and this is an interim policy meeting. it is a november meeting where they have the opportunity to really lay out what they are going to do, how seriously negative rates are being considered. surprised a lot of people around the world by being ready, willing, maybe not able yet to embrace just that.

i want to see what is going on with the kiwi dollar, swinging after the rbnz showed they held on thehike. the yen, that is sticking to a tight range, around 114, near a march low. a japanese stocks towering above the 23,000 level. the nikkei 225 -- we did get machine orders less than expected falling by 8% month-to-month, compared to the 2% drop penciled in. it is getting into negative territory in the fourth quarter. we do have most segments in the green for the nikkei 225 utilities, leading the gains, along with i.t. tech stocks. the board member telling business leaders the high level verypanese stocks are welcome and he does not see them looking overheated. he said there is a need to change the boj's etf purchases, it could lead to the rally. some stocks we are watching around the earnings story, toshiba set to report results this afternoon. in tech climbing after boosting its profit. profit --energy project will happen in march. olympus missing second-quarter estimates. japan displace lighting, admitting the results and its ability to continue is a growing concern. nissan cut it

the kiwi dollar has given up the gains we saw yesterday, sparked by the rbnz's projections so the kiwi dollar back below 73. a head china's industrial profits due this thursday, the offshore yuan holding below 639, with activity showing traders are looking for a move below 635 potentially. shery: we are watching the trade front on negotiations could happen very soon with u.s. trade representative katherine tai expected to hold her first discussions with counterparts in beijing as early as tonight. the importance of tariff rollbacks as part of the next steps in trade talks. for more, let's bring in tom mackenzie in beijing. what is the u.s. hoping to achieve with these talks? tom: katherine tai has said previously that she wants to have policy continuity. she wants to build on this trade deal that was negotiated by the trump administration. she wants to use that as the platform to encourage more trade deals in china while acknowledging structural changes will continue to be challenging. she wants to check in on commitments that china has made around this deal and see that it is living u