social media stocks are down so he might try to renegotiate. lisain premarket trading but they are well below the 54.20 mark. why are people so still so skeptical? alex: elon has said multiple times himself that he might not be able to do this deal. loads of questions about bots. matt did a piece said this is a red herring. he said he wants to do the deal in some form. if he did not want to do the deal at all, he would not be rearranging his financing options. tom: alex, everyone i spoke to thought $54 is a gift, take the money and run. where does take the money and run end? $50? $40? alex: it could go a lot further south. if you look at the evaluation multiples of the projections, free deal, trading at about 50 times earnings. there were expectations built into where the earnings would grow. the idea that even if elon had a special sauce that could turbocharge them, it would bring them in line with where market expectations were. it is a lot more mature and a lot bigger. you could rely on anywhere of the 50 times multiple. twitter is a smaller comp

lisa: he called me out. we started talking about futbol and he said i couldn't look more less -- i couldn't look less interested on air. tom: how about those phillies? ♪ (announcer) enough with the calorie counting, carb cutting, diet fatigue, and stress. just taking one golo release capsule with three balanced meals a day has been clinically proven to repair metabolism, optimize insulin levels, and balance the hormones that make weight loss easy. release works with your body, not against it, so you can put dieting behind you and go live your life. head to golo.com now to join the over 2 million people who have found the right way to lose weight and get healthier with golo. >> i think we are going to have some momentum here with the technicals telling you the market should continue to do well. >> monetary policy is biting into economic activity. >> the glide path will moderate but can margins be maintained? >> we still think there is pain in front of us. >> we will have a higher inflation target. >> this is b

lisa: he walks differently. he knows this sort of method of using some sort of towel and an iron. to take the creases out? lisa: to take the creases out. you can use cleaning rags. i am looking at this and thinking, are you joking me? but they cost a lot of money and he wants to resell it and then buy another pair. he's found jordans for me and i say, no. jonathan: he wanted to buy crypto last summer. given the choice again, would you allow him to spend $202 and invest in the market or go to nike and by sneakers? lisa: you're going to make me have buyers remorse. jonathan: i am just trying to work out if his mother would like to backtrack on the nike thing and do what i suggested, which is let him invest. lisa: and fair enough, this is his backdoor way of trying to invest. he was really into some of these other crypto's that have done well. jonathan: just $250. lisa: ok, all right, all right. jonathan: just match him dollar for dollar in the market. [laughter] we can track young 'bramo's performance for the summer on this show. lisa: he would die. jonathan: then we can do a telepho

lisa: we heard from tom barkan. kailey: heu want to get back to where you want to go as fast as you can without breaking anything, not causing undue harm to financial markets. what harm would that be? william: i think you would have to see some sort of calamity in financial markets, repeated ability of banks to lend money to households and businesses. i do not expect that. i think the reforms we make that we saw in terms of the banking system, more capital, more liquidity, better government. i think they will work this time. tom: i you not know which is more important, you quoted the great economist claudia, or quoted the other economist, wiley coyote. i will let you decide. that is great to see. bill dudley, thank you, former president of the new york fed. lisa, it is great to talk about the psalm rule, which speaks to the dynamics of what the central bank has to deal with the unemployment. from mr. dudley, personal savings rate with all the challenges of an nation now for the country moving from 27% to 4%. that is jaw-droppi

lisa: he is going to be eating pie with a fork and knife. nathan: they are not doing pies in milan. lisa: maybe when he gets to london. jonathan: we will make this happen. this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: let's get the trading week started. equity futures up on the s&p. the nasdaq up by 6/10 of 1%. the russell positive by 7/10 of 1%. the range on the two-year last week, the high was close to 480. below was close to 440. right now, somewhere in between. 4.6818 on the two-year. in the fx market, a quick look at the euro. people in that move higher on the week, the dollar index did not give me much last week at all. tom: it is an important insight and what is interesting is how yen has strengthened. i do agree with the u.s. yield shift up. we did not see it in further dollar strength. jonathan: a lot of weakness out on friday post payrolls. we are trying to work out what that payroll was all about. tom: it is a time of change as we readjust to the end of the year and after the election. joining us now is somebody with terrific perspective on this,

lisa: he said it yesterday. november 15, he has a very big announcement of mar-a-lago.: did he get in the way of mr. vance's efforts? lisa: i do not know if he got in the way of it. this has happened a few times. tom: dave matthews band is a band that plays here. jonathan: so easy to trick you guys. relax. let's talk about the spirit inflation is top in mind, we talked about -- let's talk about this, inflation is top in mind. we talk about the fiscal package in 2021, central bank policy, constraints around the world, who do they blame at all? >> the republicans blame it on the biden administration. they will make it back to things like the american rescue package . if you talk to economists, they will say it is marginal and the impact on the final inflation number. you talk to democrats in they say this is a global issue. if you look at where the united states stands versus inflation, the u.s. is in a much better shape. we are seeing countries in europe that have much better inflation. they point to ukraine, supply chain bottlenecks coming out of the pandemic. the eleph

lisa: he abandoned us.the vitality of the food here, and europe in general, the best was in istanbul in my travels. steven major, thank you so much. i'm not having a full english tomorrow. we will do a full english data check. we can do that. the headline number for me with richard mailer coming up his brent crude. $116.85. lisa: what does this mean for refined products? i'm curious how the windfall tax plays into this, whether it is the beginning of a host of taxes around the world. exactly. what is going to be the consequence? do you see more investment in oil and gas production, or loopholes any retracement -- and a retracement because they raise -- because there is a resentment? tom: i tried to pay in crypto. what a grim week for crypto. i have less than scott minerd. he says up to $400,000. then $8,000 on crypto. lisa: it has not been the safe asset a lot of people expected. i think you should start the triple leveraged all crypto fund. tom: we tried that. coming up, alina polyakova, president of the c

lisa: he really has not timed that very well. he has not done very well on big tech. if you think the dynamism will be in the traditional place, how much do we actually have? jonathon: i don't -- i'm not sure that line works for me. i don't think people are reaching for that violin. a phenomenal investor who has done well over several decades. one small story that deserves some attention, why he pulled back from the airlines when he did just as things were getting much better for the months ahead. i want to turn to the price action on amazon. amazon is up by a little more than two percentage points on the back of a massive quarter. these numbers from credit suisse and the team over there. for the top five companies. apple, microsoft, google, facebook. they have all reported q1 results. they beat expectations by 35%. the bar was high and then they hopped over the bar. that has been the story this week. lisa: they did not just hop over the bar. they crushed the bar. they shredded it. the question for me was why was there not more the reaction because it seems like the d

lisa: he is -- not participating in the market. lisa: he is just waking up to this now.ughter] tom: it is one lifetime event, another lifetime event. jonathan: do you know the kind of messages i get from people feeling sorry for you, asking why i am being mean to you? ,isa: for the people on radio tom has a mute button on him, and he is just a killing wildly. tom: there it is -- he is gesticulating wildly. tom: there is. i don't have the mute button. ferro has the me button -- has the mute button. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ jonathan: equity futures positive. initial jobless claims just second away. from new york and london, good morning to all. with your economic data, here is michael mckee. michael: good morning. looking at initial jobless claims a little bit lower than forecast. these are the seasonally adjusted numbers. they change the way they calculated it. -- last week.onth a big decline. 850,000 was the forecast. the number we really want to see to get a better, more accurate description of what is happening with unemployment claims is nonseasonally adjusted

lisa: he is into the whole resale market. tom: he buys them and he resells them. he'll work on making sure they don't get any creases. jonathan: so he will wear them. lisa: occasionally and then he feels guilty. jonathan: i'm tried to work out what the business model is. lisa: there's a very big markup and if you get a rare one. tom: lisa can you get day trade to go into a pair of l.l. bean boots. lisa: i think we are moving away from that and we will try to shift into other interests. jonathan: what light? lisa: we can discuss that in the break. jonathan: i'm just interested. i want him to day trade. lisa: at the same time when your kid is walking like he is wooden peg legs so he doesn't get creases and figuring out how to iron with a wet cloth, it's good. tom: all good. jonathan: this was a better than good segment. you don't get to take it back on live. up five of 6 -- five or 6/10 of 1%. yields a little bit higher up four basis points. china easing some quarantine rules, not sure how material that is but crude likes some of that. with tom keene, lisa abramowicz

lisa: he's going to go late so he could watch the game and put on his jersey. wrong? jonathan: 12 months ago talked about how we needed to get to the g7. lisa: it's going to be important. jonathan: lisa could break down the sophisticated nature of this potential that could happen with the russian assets. lisa: i will do a detailed analysis. jonathan: i will let you know later why lisa must go and i will supervise. lisa: people should write in if they think we should go. jonathan: see if management comes along for the ride, i doubt it. apple edits developer conference, the stock is positive one third of 1%, just around the corner. ♪ want to save on some of the biggest names in streaming on the network made for streaming? x marks the spot. now you can add the new xfinity streamsaver™ that includes netflix, peacock, and apple tv+. that's xfinity streamsaver™ for just $15 a month. all your favorites. all in one place. only from xfinity. for more watching and less spending... x marks the spot. do it all on the network made for streaming, and bring on the good stuff.

lisa: he has been. he wanted to buy macy's at the heart of the pandemic, and i was like, you are 11. no. jonathan: you need to get him on the show. actually had young 'bramo on my radio show years ago, and he made some good calls than. he was about six years old then. futures up 0.25% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, up 0.1%. yields higher by five basis points. in the commodity market, 112 dollars. crude not doing much this morning. lisa: still at $112, a far cry from where we were. i keep coming back to this idea of francisco blanch talking about how $150 on brent in his -- on brent is his base case. i wonder what that would do to the empire commodity complex. how much would that disrupt stocks, given the fact that so many companies, you absorb those costs and you start to see signs that consumers are pushing back? jonathan: i've mentioned it a few times, we have not done really in-depth on this story over the last few hours, dollar-yen. you have been on top of that, bringing together asia and what is happeni

lisa abramowicz, and annmarie hordern. jonathan: this is torture for equity market bears. every single our bob michele of jp morgan, i feel great. he was bearish a year ago. this is a big change. lisa: now the bearishness is not being bullish enough. we see upgrade after upgrade on wall street as everyone reassesses what the pivot from the fed means. jonathan: oppenheimer raising the s&p 500 year end target to 5500. i think that might be john stall office. you talk to him about upgrading the target and here we are. lisa: he said i'm going to revise things. there's not much upside from here to get there. as we heard, it did not take long before we could get to 5400 by the end of this week. jonathan: they get lined coming from boeing. let's get going up on the screen. boeings dave calhoun announces his intent to step down as the ceo. the stocks is higher in the premarket 2.5%. the boeing ceo announcing his attention to step down as ceo. lisa: everyone is wondering what took so long. everyone was wondering why he was still there. the idea this is a cultural problem that is not yet seen bottom and a question of who comes in and what is

lisa: he is good. you say not bad.athan: [indiscernible] tom: a swanson tv dinner, the differential between--and 375. i ticket out of the aluminum. jonathan: call it -- tom: you don't know what a swanson tv dinner is. jonathan: we have talked about it. up 1.1 on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping you up-to-date on news around the world with first world news -- first word news, the elon musk deal with twitter is on hold. he announced the delay, he is waiting for details supporting the calculation that span the spam and fake accounts make up less than 5% of users. european union nations say it may be time to delay a push to ban russian oil. they can't persuade hungry to back the import -- embargo. this chancellor says the exit settlement in northern ireland is causing economic and political harm. he was asked whether the u.k. would take action on its own. >> no decision has been taken. our preference has been to have a negotiated settlement and in the foreign secretary continues to engage with counterparts in europ

lisa: he's criticizing your wardrobe.: you can do a full english in london stuck jonathan: ok, i'm never going to forget lisa saying mush. do you want to take it back on this jubilee celebration? lisa: i don't want to take that back, it was really good. people talk about avocado toast in the united states. tom: acv milan taken out by redbird and this company doesn't by a majority, they are good at going in and buying a hunk. they've got the fed weight linkages well but i wonder if this is the future of's warts. jonathan: a shout out to elliott management, would thought that there hedge fund would end up owning a football club and it helped turn the team. here is a tweet for you. we do it just for you. a little more for you in the next segment. and the segment after that and the one after that. where is the love? tom: you have to do is show and in any given show, 42% of the people have to hate you. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news around the world, the price of oil is falling today fo

lisa: he will close on friday, you are skeptical? jonathan: i remain open-minded. talk about? lisa: how beautiful the world is? jonathan: we've had a big rally in the last three days but how do you know the difference between the bear market rally and something more durable? >> you really don't until is well behind you. here are a few things we do know. we know that investors are skittish as the fed pulls away the punch bowl of easy money and that will lead to a lot of uncertainty. in these situations historically, you have seen that when we are the worst, the biggest gains of the next leg of the cycle usually come in the first third of the cycle when the fundamentals are still deteriorating and sentiment is still negative. whether this is a bear market rally, you don't want to be sitting it out until someone blows the all clear whistle. we are still judiciously bullish on equities. there is a lot of long-term forces to be excited about. equities ultimately are read on human progress and there many forces pushing gdp higher over the next few years that we believe th

lisa: he didn't wear short sleeves, though, like mike pence. he had to roll it all the way up. i cut the nose thing yesterday in the acclaimed bloomberg pup tent. lisa: did you wear a bowtie with your short-sleeved shirt? tom: yes, i had two nurses helping me. lisa: with gloves, with a lot of purell. tom: i will learn in just a few minutes if i pass the test. we have been trying to be very careful, as well. i anticipate this. sry is interesting. you may know him from bouncing basketballs in milwaukee. but far more, he is exceptionally acute about hedge rest -- andsts distressed investments. hope it doesn't cost too much. i hope my insurance pays for it. can you tell me how much this will be? - [cashier] 67. - sorry. - wait, have you heard about goodrx? goodrx finds free coupons to help you save up to 80% on your prescriptions. - wow, i had no idea. - [announcer] goodrx, stop paying too much for your prescriptions. (announcer) do you washed pounds? stress? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution

lisa: he would probably say no.ce at this point or is it a community health perspective? i we still seeing hospitals strained? that is really the issue. jonathan: it depends on where you live, doesn't it? tom: im fixed on the james bond thing. mohammed says jonathan ferro should be the new james bond. jonathan: i can make that work. i am disappointed that they shot some of this movie -- it is beautiful and i do not want extra toys going down there, but i think it is over anyway and everyone is going down there. this was fantastic. lisa will ask who would know? tom is agnostic on financial asset. see how that works. tom keene and lisa abramowicz. equity futures are down 12. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> inflation is not going down. hi. wes you have to worry about the service sector and all those areas connected to travel and leisure. >> we have to work our way through this. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: i am alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. we had do

lisa: he needs to indicate he will run even if he doesn't plan on it. were british. we get to may of 2024. lisa: you tried with the pie. tom: can we bring up a bond issue? aggregate treasury futures, net spec positioning. we talked about equity shorts covered yesterday. the bond market short position is stunning. stunning. way beyond equities. lisa: there were reports that hedge fund short bets on treasuries had reached record highs. it is unclear what they were hedging against. it is not necessarily a naked short and that kind of weight. however, that does indicate what we are looking at in terms of the violent move and perhaps that is overstating the interpretation of jay powell's remarks. jonathan: there is one hell of a pain trade. this is so, so painful for 70 people. they came into -- so many people. so many people sat in that chair and set it. the first half will be dreadful. the second half is going to be about the recovery. we have ripped through last month and it continued. nine out of 10 people we spoke to all expected chairman powell to face

lisa: he is producing a show. jonathan: did he sign anything yesterday? ing signed on tariffs? lisa: of course we got something signed. annmarie: it was a directive, an investigation. to the men behind him, who are not confirmed. lisa: he held up the signature. jonathan: that we might do something in the future. that is a big difference from actually saying tariffs are going on. annmarie: the individuals that can look into 301 and 232 are not confirmed yet. so he is directing them to do this when they get into the office, which is why he just has to punt this all. jonathan: two months is going to feel like a lifetime. munich security conference kicking off today with the future of ukraine the top item on the agenda. resident jd vance set to deliver marks this morning. he is also expected to meet with ukraine president volodymyr zelenskyy later today. annmarie: jd vance set down what the wall street journal before he is going to make this speech and there is one comment that stuck out. it seemed like pete hegseth might have went a little over his skis in th

lisa: he made such a good point.f the government might be getting the money, but if it's not effective, it will be hurting the population and this is where some of the social drawer is a big concern. tom: constructive markets after what you've enjoyed the last couple weeks. yields moving. please stay with us. next, rebecca patterson of bridgewater. from davos, good morning. >> there is of pervasive fog of negative sentiment out there. >> when every single headline is negative, it's time to buy. >> i still think

why wasn't he watching the game? lisasted to say, the fed, take them at their word. annmarie: because they don't have caitlin clark. jonathan: i love that. up next, rethinking the fed's 2% target. >> inflation will be sticky. inflation will be absolutely sticky. we will get stuck around 2.5% to 3%. i don't think that warrants over the long term the fed rethinking its target. jonathan: that is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ do you want to close out? should i? normally i'd hold. but... taking the gains is smart here, right? feel more confident with stock ratings from j.p. morgan analysts in the chase app. when you've got a decision to make... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management. every second counts. 120 seconds to add the finishing touches. 900 seconds to arrange the displays. if you're short on time for marketing constant contact's powerful tools can help. you can automate email and sms messages so customers get the right message at the right time. save time marketing with constant contact. because all it takes is 3

he has to "campaign in" 24/7. which bill gets pushed the hardest? lisa: is he lobbying his own constituents?s he lobbying the populist? tom: are two bills really in place? jonathan: very much so in terms they're trying to pass them in tandem. in that sense, yes. are there ready to go now? the answer is no. lisa: we have not seen the details or any specifics of the larger reconciliation bill, which raises the question about the timeline. jonathan: the president speaking later this afternoon. i understand we will take those comments on bloomberg tv and radio. equity futures 4278 on the s&p. down not even .1%. i need one of those dashboards and that i will press a button as i'm speaking and you can save your voice for the rest of the program. yields 1.4782. anything to say? tom: four digits. i like it. the euro is weaker. jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: from new york city, tuesday morning. here is the price action. 4279 on the s&p. unchanged after climbing to a record high yesterday. the best first half since how long? tom: nine years. jonathan: unreal. nasdaq futures -.

lisa: overnight " recent yen moves has been rapid. is significantly week yen -- weak yen," but he reinforced the need for their policy. jonathan: we were talking about getting out of the last decade, now we are almost 10 years into this experiment too. lisa: we are seeing a shift. jonathan: perhaps. futures down a third of 1%. nasdaq down half of 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping up-to-date with news from around the world, i'm ritika gupta. encircled by russian forces, ukrainians have not surrendered. ukrainian officials have warned of additional airstrikes. many remaining troops in mar iupol are sheltering within a giant steelworks. history suggests the federal reserve will have a hard time calming inflation without causing a contraction. it is not inevitable because those pandemic normalizations in goods prices will help the fed. u.s. and treasury officials say that congress is to blame for internal revenues -- lawmakers have seriously underfunded the agency and that led to the departure of personnel. there is a new twist -- there is an indication of interest well in -- southw

lisa: he is a democrat. he served in democratic administrations.e is raising the alarm about inflation. are there democrats concerned about this as they pushback against bernie sanders'more ambitious plans? how much will that feature? annmarie: that is a very good point. that is where the power holds. it is in the moderate democrats. they will be the ones to get this through to the caresses or night guest to the progressives are not -- to the progressives or not. they want to make sure that they can pay for this responsibly, those moderate democrats, and that is where the power is going to live when you see the debate on -- where the power is going to lie when you see the debate on whether they are way to get this over the line. jonathan: when you break it down, 42 basis points higher in cpi. new cars, launching transportation services, added another 28 basis points. for me, we can argue all day about this, the definitions, the time frames. it comes down to something simple. the price surge we see now, has it overwhelmed the recovery? does it overw

lisa: he is facing competition from everyone.assing tesla dealerships on occasion and you can see cars on the lot, which is surprising considering the backlog. tom: we continued, and dollar-yen, 136.22. this is bloomberg. another crazy day? of course—you're a cio in 2022. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want —your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip network. from the most innovative company. bring on today with comcast business. powering possibilities.™ as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network with no line activation fees or term contracts... saving you up to $500 a year

lisa: lisa: when he was looking at -- lisa: when he was looking at what the real rates were, the facthat inflation has not moved more than 25 basis points, we have to keep her mining ourselves just stopped buying bonds and their balance sheet is near record highs. to give a sense of how easy on a terry conditions are seems to be underpinning some of the optimism in the equity market. jonathan: let's just say expectations have changed a lot through this year into 2023. crude is the move you need to look at. the bpi -- wti around $100 with a big move lower of about 6%. a story we put out your at bloomberg that this administration is considering a monster reserve release. a lot of people reacting to this, including bleakley advisory. "when something doesn't work, just do more of it?!" tom: may a little harsh. jonathan: that's what he said, tom. not me. [laughter] tom: i know. i've got a radel in my desk chez radel -- a rattle in my desk today. what is this, pile on tom day? jonathan: what are you doing with your microphone? tom: vet bill is under here and his kennel is vibrating. bring y

lisa. tom: michael mckee on an eventful week. he was taking notes as you ask that question. lisa: always. s much more direct. tom: the joy of bloomberg surveillance is to move from michael mckee and a look at market economics to someone like lewis alexander, he is at new more a, the chief u.s. economist , that barely describes his service at the federal reserve system and his economics. there are different groups of economists and lewis alexander has always been someone who said calm down about the worry of inflation. dr. alexander joins us this morning. it must've been in the air at yale university. how do you do respond to the inflationistas of 2021? lewis: clearly the economy will be strong in the near term. i would emphasize a lot of that is the burst approach, that we will translate from fiscal support to fiscal drag quickly. there are supply concerns that may drive inflation in the short run, but i would ask you are those price constraints going to be there a year from now? we think inflation continues to be well anchored, so i think the fed is right to be relaxed about where it will

he said over 12 months, lisa. lisa: but he didn't start that off. at off by saying do you see 5000. [laughter] tom: lisa, you are mistaken. lisa: ok, i'm sorry. jonathan: i have a response from ira jersey of bloomberg intelligence. let me reiterate that. the tens to move to 1.8 6% next year, and buried in there is the idea that we get a flatter curve. he says the idea is if the fed is going to hike in late 2023, the front end will need to be fully priced in for that, so it is not massive flattening through next year. he just says that's where the bias might as we start to end his bait some of these hikes. tom: i am wondering what that does to my austrian 99 your paper -- 99 year paper. this rebound for the entire market. jonathan: it does. we will talk about the curve flattening through next year, and it is probably -- it is pretty early for this kind of stuff. tom: this is the most wacko august i've ever seen. august is always nuts. let's be honest. jonathan: we are on the second, and is already the most wacko tom has ever seen. it is september that

lisa: he said he remembered him to. tom: is this the most interesting fed meeting in ages? is fascinating -- lisa: it is fascinating, they have a difficult task ahead of them. tom: we will have wonderful guests with us to get perspective. i'm looking forward to a conversation with priya misra. we will also hear the conversation with jerome powell. all this conversation led by michael mckee. he will be in the press conference. stay with us. bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. good morning. ♪ jonathan: your equity market is bouncing into this one. higher on the s&p by 1.6%. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: we begin with the big issue. counting down to chair powell. >> the issue is how strong a signal to they want to send? >> i am sure jerome powell will peppered with questions. >> everyone is trying to figure out what is the fed going to do? >> they give a little bit more color about tapering. >> the press conferences are more interesti

lisa: he is muttering to himself. carry-on.ughter] michael: cheesy nonetheless, yields go up by 40 basis points, maybe 30 more reasonably at the outside in the next five months. that seems like a good play. lisa: meantime, big driver yields rising was a weakening dollar. cooling off a little. people closing out. morgan stanley away completely near-term from the weaker dollar call. do you see it strengthening from here as people look at the situation in europe and see the pandemic and how bad it is and say, maybe the u.s. is not so bad? michael: we see strengthening. good point. longer-term, probably not great. near-term, how about a bear market rally? these things happen. dollar has been down dramatically last seven months. europe, correlative from covid perspective. u.s. yields up, yield spreads going up too. yield advantage for u.s. over germany, france, japan, has increased dramatically over the last months, which should give the dollar a near-term boost. lisa: what is the compass? mark mccormick is tracking the vaccination

[laughter] lisa: he's going to say it is much as he can. bitterly just showed who's buying the debt, everyone -- buying the dip, everyone. they see an opportunity to get in more deeply. yesterday was the second best day for the long bond in four months. it was the best day for the nasdaq in four months. the correlations are genetic. jonathan: deeply -- are dramatic. jonathan: deeply correlated. lisa: at a certain point, are the same people on the same sides of this trade, just whipsawing either direction? jonathan: it's all been one trade. that is why we got the likes of tom keene slightly interested in an auction later this afternoon, and tens and 30's tomorrow. everyone has become a rates strategist. tom: but being honest here, within the nuances and mathematics of those announcements, and with immense respect to bloomberg world leadership in bond coverage, where abramowicz was weaned, does anybody show up at the margin? and the answer is they will. lisa: they showed up in force yesterday. it is one thing to show up in force for three yea

he is not very good at doing that. lisa do you think will be the main question that he will get that will potentially trigger a reaction? i am thinking it is about how concerned he is about the easing in financial conditions. jonathan: number one, couldn't agree more and that is the question and the spread between been -- them and the market on the back of that. they can't resolve that today with a 25 basis point hike downshifting. lisa: they could say we are bothered by the rally and we don't like what the market has done and this goes against what we are trying to accomplish. that kumutha markets. --that could move the markets. tom: i disagree. i think they look at the markets as a some subtle which shows within the bloomberg financial index, shocking with accommodation. jonathan: you post a question like this and a journalist will do it. happy see -- have we seen a -- he knows the question is coming. how he answers it, you can read a lot into it. he woke with this morning and looked in the matter -- he woke up this morni

lisa: there's a question about peak grouwh. he said middle-market customers are hesitant to draw credit lines. it speaks to the reluctance to take out new loans at a time of stimulus. are you concerned about peak growth and how the market will respond to that with perhaps a more hawkish fed? james: there's no doubt we will have peak growth. we fell 9% year on year in real gdp this time a year ago, record setting in a postwar collapse, and we will have a record-setting advance in a postwar period this year. but when you are doing peak growth from 14% to 15% year on year, and it slows down, i am not sure anyone notice because we will still be growing christie double digits -- growing close to double digits , which is off the charts historically going forward. so i'm not sure that growth people worry about in the cycle is nearly as meaningful this time around. the real issue is this is just a one-time sugar high of 22 anyone in growth, or is it sustainable growth going forward? i think it is looking more and more like sustainable, re

it won't look great if they are not great and he is at the beach. lisa: if he is at the convention center may be he is trying to drum up services at the delaware beach. you are correct. what will it signal? at the same time how does he spin this? if it is good will he have to talk about inflation? tell the fed, do your job? at what point is it a good report for him? jon: the chief international strategist at deutsche bank. financial conditions over the last year are tighter. looser over the last few weeks. are they tight enough? alan: i don't think so. if you take the combination of her s&p's are trading, the 10 year yield, credit spreads, it is hard to see inflation being guided down to 2% in a timeline that is acceptable from the fed standpoint. almost certainly you will need more tightening of financial conditions. tom: you go back to history and talk about arthur burns when he pushed one way and volker going to the other side of things. parse the difference of burns and volker and what it means for powell. alan: what you're seeing from powell and the

he's pounding the mast down to per hour vaccinations. lisa the dosing of some of these vaccines. there has been some discussion not only about the distribution method, but also about the supplies, whether we have enough to get tw rounds the vaccinationso two that critical mass of population -- to get to vaccinations to that critical mass. tom: the phase 3 -- dr. hotez: the phase 3 trials were done with a varied over it dose and schedule. this is what the ceos have said, what dr. fauci has said. you are introducing an enormous amount of risk to give a vaccine that won't work as well, so all you will do by that is take a crummy vaccination infrastructure, and instead of delivering a good vaccine or reliable vaccine, you will introduce one that is less than optimal. it makes no sense. we knew that mrna technology is still immature, not really robust enough to do the whole job. that is why the whole plan was vaccines,n the other and that is what we need to focus on, not turning a good vaccine into a mediocre one. lisa: just to put a bow on everyt

lisa: he will be on at 2:15, talking about the economy. will he talk about the strength, the need for the fed to be aggressive? how is he going to head into a midterm elections, saying rising unemployment rate is by design? a very difficult political message. jonathon: who wants to say that out loud? not ephedra now. futures down on the s&p and nasdaq. crude is inching back to $199. just getting some confirmation from the white house, they have confirmed that time for biden and xi jinping to have a talk. a: 30 -- 8:30 eastern time. lisa: yes, then we will hear from president biden at 2:15. how much is that going to shape anything? i actually don't find it is interesting as the initial job claims. right now, how does the labor market dictate whether the fed starts to reconsider how quickly to raise rates heading into the year? that seems to be one of the reasons why powell thinks there is still strength in the market. going to that 8:30 call that president bynum will have with xi jinping, we have confirm the time. how much are they going to

kailey: maybe he needs to -- lisa: maybe he needs to drink up on his tang.ughter] jonathan: down 0.6% on the s&p. on radio, on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ and there you have it - wireless on the fastest, most reliable network. wow! big deal! we get unlimited for just $30 bucks. i get that too and mine has 5g included. impressive. impressive is saving four hundred bucks a year. four bucks? that's tough to beat. relax people, my wireless is crushing it. okay, that's because you all have xfinity mobile. it's wireless so good, it keeps one upping itself. ♪ jonathan: buy from new york city, for our audience worldwide on tv and radio, here's the friday morning price action. we decline on the s&p by 0.6%, on the nasdaq 100 by 1%. 4% of the s&p, amazon is negative by 6.5%. if we get to the bond market, just a little bit defensive. treasuries firmer, yields lower, the curve a little bit flattered. down to basis points on tends -- down two basis points on tens. a lot of people say we shouldn't be down here, but when you asked them why we are down here, they don't know. b

lisa: he was very real trying to address the american people. julian, you talk about how sustained this is. what has to happen in order to get to 4800 at a time where people want to hear the bearish case, want to understand how much downside they have? julian: we need to see visibility into the idea that this so-called softish landing will crystallize. our fear here, there is only so much the fed can do to take energy prices down. they cannot do much at all. we have seen more hawkish rhetoric out of global central banks in the past week. we are likely to see that the next wednesday. the fear is it does not move inflation materially lower. if you get that breaking inflation and consumer spending to hold in, that is where we get the upside. jonathan: that is the september pause. do you need that to get to the 4800 case? julian: not necessarily. the concept of volatility around the macro, and economic volatility whether driven by inventories or number of different issues, it is such a long time between now and september, the picture is likely to lo

lisa: he's writing his book on meditation. tom: i think he's in fiji or something like that. sa: the idea here of potential political risk, that is what he was talking about. the idea of a september to remove or, a perfect storm. he's got great catchphrases. honestly, you look out over the next couple of weeks, and given how bullish people have gotten, is there that fragility? tom: i know what francine is going to say. i've worked with her for years. here's francine. lisa, have an abril spritz -- have an aperol spritz. francine: you know what haven't talked about? china regulation. this has been over the last two weeks, basically china selling off, european stocks kind of getting their impetus from china and the asian markets, and then you buy the dip in the u.s.. i don't know how long this lasts into september. tom: lisa, again, that goes to the point of a white knuckle september. to francine's point, we've heard from inda karen and -- from end curran and others about china this year and into next year. lisa: the reaction in markets is, nah. you can get yields. the fed will c

lisa: he's blaming me. jonathan: you know he hates people taking time off.teve chiavarone joins us now, federated hermes portfolio manager. we are up 0.5% on the s&p in the face of a fed that took a little more of a hawkish tilt in the face of the situation in china. what you make of that? steve: i thought the market took yesterday well, access adverbs notwithstanding. if we anticipate the fed to maybe communicate a little more aggressive tapering schedule, i was a little surprised to see them signal three hikes in 2023 rather than two. the market seems ok with that, which tells me the market acknowledges some of the upside risks. they are getting tempered to the plan ahead. they're comfortable with it, or at least that is the initial reaction, and we will see how the fed executes from here. it is a little more hawkish, and the market seemed ready for that. tom: i want you to explain on an allocation basis your comfort in being in stocks for the rest of the year. steve: we cut back our equity allocation a couple of weeks ago . we were at 60% of maximum overw

lisa: he is not taking a bus. tom: he told me he said he cannot get a car the train is on strike so he is taking a bus. lisa: it is a new tv show. tom: extraordinary. lisa: john on a bus. tom: dow futures -66. we have all the great stuff. jonathan will join us at 7:00 a.m., a must watch. good morning. ♪ >> keeping you up-to-date with news around the world i have the first word. u.k. household income fell for a fourth quarter leaving britain's on course for the were slipping student nerds in memory. disposable income per person decline point 5% according to the office of national statistics. gross domestic product also fell. the cost-of-living squeeze has likely already pushed the u.k. into a lengthy recession that might last until the end of next year. a new analysis shows that china is experiencing one million covid inspections and 5000 virus stats every day according to a london-based research forum -- firm that focus on predictive health analytics. bloomberg laurent that china plans to cut quarantine requirement

lisa: he went from the uber dove to the uber hawk. s is from ian -- he made it clear that yesterday jackson hole became important. i'm thrilled to tell you the bloomberg tv and radio is giving a full commitment to jackson hole, letting me go, dusting off the two tone tony lummis, we will try to get kailey leinz to go but michael mckee will lead coverage with kathleen hays. the british guys coming if he is back from europe. lisa: [laughter] yeah, jon will be with us. tom: and we will stop the show off the reporting of craig torres and kata unit -- katerina sarajevo with something that has been a wonderful destruction, so-called trading from fed officials. jack fitzpatrick joins us from bloomberg government. the chairman and the former vice chairman have been clear on various sundry inspector general's and that. but others have not in the question is not so much rich guys being at the fed but actually the buying and holding and selling back and forth like during a month or two. jack: yeah, it does seem to be focused on the timing of when

lisa: that's what he's doing. jonathan: i imagine that's continued this morning, too. sa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. tom keene back with us monday morning. tomorrow is set to be a good one. ignore the clouds. it gets better from here, i hope. i'm 23 on the s&p 500, off by 0.6% -- down 23 on the s&p 500, off by 0.6%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: by september or october, president biden is likely to see some version of his $4 trillion economic plan passed in congress. the president has two major tasks. he has to keep various democratic factions from splintering the party and keep fending off republican attempts to portray the plan as radical. democrats can use senate rules to bypass republican opposition to most of the plan. the euro area economy slid into a double-dip recession at the start of the year. strict coronavirus lockdowns kept businesses closed and consumers were reluctant to spend. output in the 19 nation euro area was down 0.6% in the first quarter. it fell nearly three times that rate in germany. meanwhile, the u.s. posted annualized growth of 6.4%. in israe

lisa: he is throwing shade at me. jonathan: ok, this is about lisa.a: do we see it in the numbers yet? tom: you see a churning of price. jonathan: we know it is going to happen here. it is pretty obvious. look at where we were, 12 months previously and think about that on a rolling basis. it is in it -- it is inevitable when cpi starts to push higher. tom: i hate to say it, but i'm going to go back to the real yield, very constructive at -.94. that is a big change from 10 days ago. jonathan: i'm not sure what is going on. never mind that other show. tom: lisa is getting her own show to compete with you and real yield. she will call it the deflation spiral. jonathan: coming up next, i might not be here, but you will get some retail data and some ppi did as well. after that, you will hear from the barclays chief u.s. economist. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that and more in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolu

lisa: he gets caviar. tom: the biggest problem here, and the tradition of the new york -- economic club of new york, it is an polite up on the podium, as they call it, the stage, you can not eat until the speech is over, so you are down there chowing down, leaning over, taking lisa abramowicz's desert, and i have up there starving, unable to eat. jon: but you get a drink. equity futures up 12 pointed a bit of a lift. tom: it is a big move. jon: u.s. dollar, 12123. it is a huge move over the last three months. absolutely massive. tom: no question about it. as i mentioned in the 6:00 a.m. the idea of jp morgan up 32% from november 6, the russell 2000 up 40%est. liz and sanders joins us. walk me through how important it is to stick with it, stick with what is working at the moment? >> what is working changes on a week to week basis. there was so much attention on the most heavily shorted stocks in the gamestop saga, reading headlines this was some brand-new phenomena, the rise of retail traders and the domina

lisa: he did well for himself.growth profile is associated with inflation over the longer term and the increase you might see in stimulus. a lot of people calling for stag inflation. that is where a lot of people are concerned about, where do you go if you have that kind of environment, if central banks are forced to throw money at a problem driven by the financial system? it leaves us back to square one in terms of finding inflation. jonathan: the call on canada's inflation. it is not just canada, equities, banks. we have heard of the fx call being associated with the property bubble. lisa: you want to go into a place where they do not necessarily have to see a significant decline in home prices. again, the fx analysts are becoming experts and whatever is the narrative did sure. right now, it is where there are notes of contagion and where are the mispricing's in the market? jonathan: nodes of contagion, it is about that. deutsche bank down 14%. first republic down 4.5%. on market, two-year 3.58. 10 year, 3.29. ♪

he is killing it. lisa: the reality is, we already know what joe biden will say. need to be cautious and that we need to tread lightly. he will push back to some degree, but highlight he is moving forward. this is the dance we heard yesterday. jonathan: i think he can get ahead of this at the federal level. i think the government should say this is what you need to do if you have been vaccinated. lisa: but the science does not back it up yet. there could be a possibility of transmission and they want to be careful. tom: i was in the restaurant deciding between the value meal and the double cheeseburger. they were talking about gradually moving out from 25%. jonathan: i cannot take you seriously. i have been to mcdonald's with you once. tom: i don't remember that. jonathan: that was it. lisa: did he know what to order? jonathan: i did -- he did not. i had to order for him. tom: the only reason we went was to get a photograph. i was within the expenses dictated to me -- dictated i say. jonathan: mcdonald's. james foley, rabbo bank, coming up. good morning. tom: four

lisa: he's in triple leveraged all product sneakers, i think.g back some of the losses a little bit, s&p futures down 1% with that euro stronger versus the dollar, but losing a little bit of momentum. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. ecb president strong fiscal stimulus while it fights inflation. the guard spoke to bloomberg in an exclusive interview. she said there's no need to panic. she echoed that there are no concerns for a 50 basis point hike. alexei navalny has lost his appeal against a new driven -- any prison sentence. he will be taken to a prison aimed at isolating putin's top critic further. quarantining thousands of workers in china to make sure they are free of coronavirus's part is the logic -- the workers are being housed in an old military camp. bloomberg has learned -- is in talk to buy intel to create a giant in diabetes devices. an agreement could be worked -- could be reached in the coming weeks. walmart and its partner plan to expand the

lisa: he is just laughing, carrying his suit and looking very debonair. than: do you do that every day? lisa: i do. jonathan: did you maintain that pace as well? lisa: how else do you have efficiency? tom: i will have a martini. jonathan: what were you running away from? just getting away from work? lisa: what are we doing next? tom: when you become acclaimed there has to be a reason and his recent details with payroll today he is definitive on wage dynamics. tom, what do you look for with mr. powell's wage inflation metrics this morning? >> good morning. is it still too late to say happy new year? i don't know how that works. lisa: you can still say it. >> i know lisa doesn't say it. lisa: fake news. >> sorry i'm not able to be on video we have some issues on our end. i think there are ways of looking at wages, there's too many ways of looking at wages. a lot of people made a big deal about yesterday's report with the job changers number. it's funny to me that people talk about how it's a 15% yeah, but it's down from 17%. again, i'm not saying that's not