the risks facing transmission. purchases are not restricted. tpi will allow the governing council to more effectively deliver on its price stability mandate. in any event, the flexibility and reinvestments coming in the pandemic emergency purchase program portfolio remains the first line of defense to counter the transmission mechanism related to the pandemic. the details of the tvr described in a separate press release to be published. you will get that later. 50 basis point hike. on the euro, a spike higher by half of 1%. 1.0230. yields still higher in italy by 18 basis points. the 10 year higher by 20 basis points. kailey leinz, your thoughts on the back of this one? it looks like a loose definition of anti-fragmentation talk from the ecb. kailey: i think i got a description but not necessarily an understanding. people will be asking for more clarity from christine lagarde at that press conference starting at 8:45. you are definitely seeing the reaction in the bond market. the spread is narrowing now. the move in the euro is stronger on the back

if you look at the tpi, it's been 3.5%. it's one of the least appreciated areas of inflation.for the average household. brendan: every fed has its own indicator. top headlines. vonnie: police released surveillance video showing a man suspected of killing nine people in that attack on a south carolina church. it's a white man in his early 20's he walked into a church in downtown charleston and started shooting. six women and three men were killed. it's a historically black church and police are calling this a hate crime. >> a white male, younger white male. between 21 and 25 years of age. approximately 5'9" in height. he has on a distinctive sweatshirt that has markings. the vehicle you will see has a very distinctive front license plate. vonnie: the fbi is joining the investigation. all the victims are black. among them, the pastor. european finance ministers once again trying to solve the greek debt crisis. if they are in luxembourg discussing a possible bailout. greece may not be able to pay its bills if rescue funds are not released. there's speculation greece might seek he

the biggest issue with tpi is not of a technical nature. it is political. it is definitely not something that would protect government's against their own mistakes. that is the issue. if you could come up with a situation where the market is punishing a state for things which it has not even done or announced, then tpi is fully there. if they are doing stuff that is triggering a rational reaction by the market, gpi is probably not the right instrument. so far, the news we have from italy is the new government, we don't have one yet, they want to be prudent. if they don't make a big announcement that would make the ecb nervous, they could benefit from tpi. there is a relationship with the market that can build with that. lisa: i can hear your voice in my head. it is very loud right now. he is saying ok, they will talk about political risk and the peripheries, what about the fact germany is the biggest risk to the entire european economy? what's the answer? how is this situation different, both the political considerations and from distinguishing from the euro

geoffrey: i think europe -- they have the tpi's to manage any spread widening. e last few weeks or so. i think qt will take place in europe when the market is ready for that. on rate hikes, that is where europe is one step behind the rest of g10, i think that is protected in euro-dollar. with the latest inflation prints, i think they need to accelerate. jonathan: i am not going to explain with the prawn sandwich brigade is. thank you. geoff is a united manchester fan. back in the days, the manager of manchester united football club, the atmosphere at the stadium was dreadful. he referred to those fans as the prawn sandwich brigade. the wealthier crew unpacked their prawn sandwiches and didn't make too much noise. he wanted more noise, more support in the stadium, a bigger atmosphere. tom: we have the same thing here. i am critical of the new york yankees. when they play a fabulous team, all the empty seats from the prawn sandwich club. i give steinway credit for this, a down fancy to sit in the same chair. jonathan: empty corporate seats drives me nuts. the u.s.

jonathan: can the bond vigilantes in europe make a comeback or will tpi stop that from happening? >> i think the ecb is going to give the best try to avoid -- and support italy, for example. i think they have come back and it is a big challenge. jonathan: your world of bond vigilantes. how many years ago was that? tom: it was a long time ago when there was not a bear market like this. that was a walk in the park compared to where we are now. jonathan: in many ways, the week begins tomorrow, not today when we get earnings from her soft and alphabet. lisa went through all of the economic data we get through this week as well. tom: we are trying to make monday eventful as well. i think with out question, the conversation this morning was stephen englander. how many people disagreed in the game? the answer is seven out of 10? jonathan: it looks pretty divided down the middle. others looked at it and said i see evidence of this being stickier. lisa: this is the toughest market i can imagine. the factoring into the supply-side constraints, it is many different areas of the supply-side ma

the ecb. we have not talked about tpi. jonathan: what did marcus ashworth call it, to predict italy? tpi? tom: the first thing i looked at this one was italian spreads, which i guess are ok is how i would put it this morning. jonathan: futures are ok, up 0.4% this morning on the nasdaq 100. yields are higher by five basis points. 2.80% on the 10 year. crude higher than 1%. euro-dollar, 1.0223. welcome back, bramo. lisa: it is good to be back. today is going to be a huge game changer for a slew of reasons, the first being these big tech earnings we are talking about. alphabet, microsoft, meta, amazon, why is pinterest there? i am not sure. [laughter] sorry, i am just going to be honest. i know tom really likes pinterest. tom: dow component. jonathan: is that another bellwether for you? tom: it is, exactly. lisa: wednesday we've got the rate decision and press conference. how much do they talk about not only inflation and out of they are looking on at that friend versus what they are seeing in the on employment picture? how much can unemployment rise before they respond to that in addition t

an hour -- granted, we are not -- $15 an hour, granted, we're not were 60% of the american workforce was unionized that had tpiator clause is built into the contracts, but when you hear walmart and mcdonald's come amazon all talking about $15 an hour wage, that becomes a little more persistent in my view. jonathan: jack, have to leave it there. jack ablin, cresset capital chief investment officer. want to turn to brent crude. $71 a barrel. the smallest move lower, iran says the nuclear deal differences are solvable. they might be solvable. the smog tom: on the screen, it sticks out like a sore thumb. we have seen a lot of statistics. is anybody out there is a thought leader, i'm asking you, as a thought leader, do you see anyone framing $80 a barrel? jonathan: when i think of a thought leader, i think of jeff currie. tom:, on. jonathan: because of the demand shock. we are facing the demand shock right now. everywhere you look, you see it. the ism data yesterday. lisa, talked about autos earlier on this morning. on a production. the struggle to find the chips to produce the autos, the struggle to find workers t

the transmissions protection? that hasn't been activated. tpi is meant to work like omt. ber omt. one of my favorites. jonathan: draghi came up with omt. that was the great, whatever it takes moment in 2012. omt was never activated. tom: the one that was better than any of them was eie i/o. lisa: omg. [laughter] tom: it is alphabet soup. people making it up as they go. lisa: trying to offset some financial stability concerns and social concerns in a place like the european union will also -- while also combating inflation. is it an impossible task, and how much is inflation going to cooperate? i think that it's the under punning -- underpinning of the bulls and the bears. the bears say, this is a structurally higher inflationary regime and you will see the bond vigilantes come out. tom: correction of the month was ahead of the dutch central bank leaning over into the middle of the interview and saying, stupid inflation. the netherlands is not 11%, it is 17%. is the 17% old news? jonathan: double-digit cpi. can we say we have seen the peak in eurozone inflation? i think peo

the markets. tom: in bloomberg opinion -- "tpi -- to protect italy." jonathan: great to catch up with you. that seems to be the take away after that ecb news conference -- people's heads spinning. my head was about to explode. if i hear cpi too many times today, i think it will go that way. tom: an acquaintance of a family member had a monograph from 1945 in oxford of john monet. nothing has changed since then. nothing more in the political effusion off the memory of world war ii. i thought lagarde did well given all the conflicting politics she faces. jonathan: the euro weaker. futures down a little bit after a decent run at gains. from new york, this is bloomberg . ritika: keeping up-to-date with news from around the world with the first word, i am ritika gupta. u.s. social media giants are on track to lose $49 billion since yesterday's close. concerns on the outlook for online advertising for the whole sector appear that sees a major slowdown. commerce secretary gina raimondo warns the u.s. cannot relying on taiwan for semi conductors in an to an annual security forum. she called the $50

euro cannot even get a bed because i do not understand the reaction function of the ecb and i do not understand what tpiand i have no idea what happens with gas supply. that is why people think that the euro is still unviable. tom: absolutely. begin right now our coverage into a july 27 federal reserve meeting which in sequence with the last one and might be in sequence with the next one is historic. a student of this, a history of the nation's economics is a former richmond federal reserve president, jeffrey and we are thrilled that he can join us this morning. i want to go back to one of my heroes, a gentleman from washington university of st. louis, douglas north, who codified the word ambiguity and also did a careful study of the dynamics, the movable parts of our economy. all of our listeners, all of our viewers are drowning in the dynamics of our economic world, how do we get control of it? jeffrey: it has to do with getting injured -- getting inflation down. it is the -- it is the institution with a unique control of the monetary condition of the united states together with fiscal authorities the

: we are fairly optimistic that it will start to move forward, particularly with the reading in part because of recent tpiond that, we see commodities and shipping rates. we found that many price cuts, wages are keeping inflation high, and that is the key to inflation going lower and lower. lisa: just quickly, what are we talking about in terms of levels? what are the odds? michael: we think we will certainly come down from that when it comes to inflation in part because of the strong decline in vaseline prices. but the court can remain sticky. we may be slow in inflation readings but certainly well above. jonathan: thank you. coming the trading floor. wasn't that fantastic? tom: a memo today, pond is on surveillance. jonathan: beautiful. tom: the guardian in london, one of the great authors and thinkers of economics in your united kingdom, he resurrects some ronald reagan, tripled -- trickle-down economics. is that what we are observing? jonathan: it was pretty skating. tom: this is out there in real time. for our american listeners and viewers, what goes on tomorrow has a profound effect on what goes on

the last two weeks? jonathan: they are looking for a 75 point basis hike. tpi, what does tpi mean? on tool. lisa: take a look at were they are with telling yields right now. the highest since 2013, continuing to climb. when do they step in, when do they have to use it? this is not a tool they want to use. jonathan: i look forward to your coverage this week. tom keene down in d.c. over to guy johnson. p.m. qs, they are back. guy: they are. the government is making sure we protect our economy. i will pause for a moment and think about the implications. if this is way looks like, i wonder what playing fast and loose with it ultimately does. it is a challenging environment for the prime minister right now. i suspect this will be a feisty prime minister question. jonathan: i want you to frame the importance of his comments yesterday. what was special about what he had to say, yesterday in washington? >> it was a reiteration. a lot of people are making claims it was a communications error. i could see the reasons for that. he has, once again put himself into a position where he has very l

jonathan: what is developing in france over the last month, and maybe i'm reading too much into it, tpitection instrument available to counter unwarranted and disorderly dynamics. what do you think that could be about? lizzy: christine lagarde is going to get asked about france in this press conference. it is her homeland. a lot of the questions about the disruption in the bond market from the french election is kind of a last week story, right? we saw in the bond auction this morning that there was good demand in france. it looks as if there is not going to be a huge ruckus for the ecb to deal with, but it's whatever christine lagarde says that will be interesting on how the ecb views its role when it comes to financial stability, to your point. dani: they are saying that the headline inflation will remain well above target into 2025. we heard the same thing last meeting with their update of their inflation projections. it was awkward, because they did that and cut. how much of what we are about to hear from madame lagarde is her trying to get out of that box, that corner they they put

pooja: if we do see the spreads going above 100 basis points it could be activated, but to give you background on tpids to abide by fiscal rules to use this tool. if marine le pen comes back to her plate of spending we saw in 2019, i do not think the ecb will be ready to support spreads. that is something even france knows that if it wants to benefit from the money it is getting in terms of grants for the cpi tool, what is required is abiding by the fiscal story. jonathan: something uniquely european about this bond market development. lisa: essentially that you have to be appropriate and if you are not appropriate you're not going to be on the receiving end of these programs. you have to be within our rules and otherwise you do not get the benefits. otherwise you wonder if things widen out enough. they are here to close spreads. jonathan: it is amazing how the liz truss scares teams to shape politicians not just in the u.k. but elsewhere. lisa: i wonder the degree to which it will. this is a faith being baked into markets we've been asking about. is there a market put on any of the fiscal proposals