. >>> i mentioned jim lee. mr. lee, i know i'm right in the no relation category, right? >> that's right. thanks for having me. >> it's great to have you on a day when there is so much swirling around facebook. it looks like we'll be closer to 96 billion. is facebook under valuing or are people overvaluing it? >> that may appear to be the case. it seems like the strategy would be pricing it, setting the bar really low and my best guess here is we're seeing a lot of demand there. ultimately we could see it increase into the pricing range. i think pushing the upper end higher than what they are. >> is this a can't miss buy? if you're recommending the stock to people, it's obviously going to be a successful ipo. you recommend buying the shares if you can get ahold of them? >> absolutely. we love the business model. we think over time facebook continues to be one of the most engaging social media platforms in the world and by 2015, we think 80% of the users on facebook is going to come from outside the u.s. it's definitely active users are going to likely decline over time. h

extra ugly, those are his words, extra ugly cpi printing let's say that jim and tom lee are right. what am i supposed to do -- why wouldn't i want to -- if they're right, why wouldn't now be a decent time to buy stocks? i mean is that crazy, or what? >> no. and we're all in stocks. i think it depends on what stocks you're buying but first of all, scott, you have to think through what is the fed going to do, right so tom lee and jim can be right about we're not going to see another 9 handle, but we're not going to go back and get a 3 handle we're so far away from where the fed wants us to be and so the question is not are we reaching peak inflation and does it go from 9 to 7.5, the question is what is the fed going to do about it i'm a staunch believer in not fighting the fed so i think you're going to continue to have this weight on stocks because of what the fed is going to do and the fed, i'm certain at the end of the month is going to have to continue to talk really tough. it's priced in they'll do 75 maybe after canada's surprise 100 basis points they do the same but i think th

markets don't peak at fair valuation, they peak at overvaluation. >> jim. >> well, lee, thanks for joining us i feel a little kindred spirit with you because i'm a value investor let's face it, the last ten years have not been kind to value versus growth investors. it's been about an annual 1.5% performance. does value need to be redefined? if you look at the russell 1000 value, their main metric is price to book. if you just go on price to book, you get into some crummy areas. >> the book value is -- the value of a book is a function of the return on book if return on book is rising, it should pay a higher multiple so you have to look at the leverage that companies are employing. >> and good will as well sometimes book value is overstated. >> i don't play that game. my largest position has been going google it's 20 times estimated earnings with a fortressed balance sheet and growing its market share facebook is 17 times earnings, growing much more than 17% i think you've got to look at these things individually. i don't believe -- a certain part of the market is efficient, but what keeps

farmer jim for tom lee >> always good to have you on the show i'm in lock step one thing i was looking at this morning and i'll tell you, it caused me just a bit of concern is the growth rate projected in earnings for next year has declined from 17% to 10% now let's be honest. both sets of numbers, 21 and 22, have shot up it's just that, obviously, some growth has been pulled forward into this year when i look at that 10% growth rate and i compare it to the multiple on the market of 21, does that peg ratio of 2.1 cause you any concern or how do you feel about it? >> it's a great question, jim. so if i assumed consensus was right and 10% earnings growth, the ratio is actually appropriate because even if growth rates were seven, actually i would think that the peg ratio would be higher. i know it sounds strange but peg goes higher as you get towards single digits. but i think 2022 eps estimates are grossly low. most analysts are still only forecasting cyclical stocks to get to 2019 margin levels. i think it's going to be more appropriate to think of cyclicals having all-time high margins

weiss, obviously, i'm going to go to you to counter not only farmer jim, but tom lee. they're very the same points and it's not like a ridiculous point of view and he's not the only one saying it and use weakness to add equities and we remain of the view that any weakness should be used to add to equities, so there is that view out there and when people get overly negative like this, oh, my god, chill out. >> keep in mind, just as i said, it's important and i'm not hysterical over today. today is not what's driving my thinking i've covered some of the shorts i came in with, but i'm still bounced off cash my view is not based on rates. it's an amal cgamation of events and while the economy is move ahead, we've lowered some good-bye forecasts so yah caou can't say it's gett stronger and my thesis is based on third quarter it's not based on today. it's not based on yesterday. i think the third quarter is important and we've seen indications of that, nike, fedex and we've seen others and i don't think you can have a roaring bull market when you have both rates going higher

. ♪ ♪ >> welcome to the halftime report, i'm melissa lee, jim lebenthal, jon and pete that jerian andhael bloch. tasty stock, yum brands is on a tear. investors wonder whether a spinoff is in the works. real or fake, we brought you the debait over avon takeover. we begin with the markets, all-time highs are stocks poise for a breakout or is this a fakout? josh brown what do you say, it seems like we hit these levels and started to stall out. >> soy think it's going. but let me start by saying that the consequence of this not being a breakout here is really not the end of the world. we've been rangebound. this has been the upper end of the range going back to i think the week before thanksgiving. we fell to this level several times. if it happens again, not actually the worst outcome. however i think if you look at the pros versus cons here, still support a breakout in this range finally. for starters, this has an international basis. i mentioned this to you the other day. vgk breaking out, vanguards europe etf, very broad. efa, the msi efa index. breaking out. the back drop, it's posi

it's an incentive to speculate >> let me open it up to the panel in front of me, lee. jim lebenthal has something for you today. >> thanks for being on the show. you talked earlier and i agree low interest rates abroad are being imported over here what about economic weakness being imported from overseas i know that's a change that a recession overseas or weakness overseas generally doesn't get imported but a lot of things have changed. and you look at china. their pmi is below 50. europe, gdp, 1% is something to be celebrated over there what do you think the possibility is that that gets imported over here >> well, i think that's the concern of powell. but where i'm trying to figure out is, what is the weakness tied to? and i think the weakness is tied to business fixed investment turned a bit soggy because the uncertainty injected in the businessman's mind over what these tariffs are all about. you know, what do they do for their supply chain do they move out of china to somewhere else do they build in china, build in the u.s. build in mexico? in vietnam this is causing

second half tom lee tells us why he thinks that's the case when he joins us our investment committee here to debate that call, joining me for the hour, joe terranova. carrie firestone and jim lebenthal. let's begin with the check on stocks dow hitting new records. steve weiss, tom lee in a moment to talk about the everything rally. farmer jim is now mr. all-in, because yesterday he told us he is all in. and i wonder if weiss -- weiss is frozen. i thought maybe he was sleeping. it might be his nap time we have to the try and wake him up to get him back in the conversation so farmer jim, i guess you get it first today he is still sleeping mr. all-in are you up? >> well, it's hard to tell when steve is awake it's not that much different than when he is asleep but yes, i'm definitely all in >> i hope he can't hear this at the very least >> this is gold. i don't want to be blase okay the delta variant is something we have to pay attention to. we're going to talk about airlines in a second i don't want to steal the thunder. but clearly southwest is saying they're seeing an effect we can't ignore the delta variant. but at the same time you can't ignore the positives vaccine rates

jim, do you have a question for mr. cooperman >> i do. thanks for joining us, lee about speculative ferv fervor that's what i'm calling it with robinhood. hi history has an episode of rhyming with itself. i saw a social media investor trolling warren buffet say he's washed up. i saw that happen in the '90s and in the aulgts. both time mr. buffet came back roaring. do you think the speculative fervor is getting carried away and how do you think it ends >> i remember to the obinhood market will end in tears i'll read you something here somebody sent me an e-mail yesterday we reported that jeffrey decided to turn the bankruptcy proses cess on ittedd by selling up to $1 billion of the most unsecured asset possible shares of bank ruprupt hertz to lunatic robinhood day traders. you see things like that and the crazy stuff. it had to right itself warren has gotten older. he's very wise man i would not in any way write him off. he's one of the heroes in the market he's having trouble figuring out what to do i can understand what he's going through. we have valuation levels

you listen to lee cooperman, jim, jenny, rob, it's all about free cash flow and we want to buy companiest have high free cash flow, and so what this etf does is it takes the hundred highest free cash flowing yielding companies in the russell 1,000 and weighs them not by market cap but by free cash flow yield, and so what you end up with is first of all last year it was actually up 20 basis points, which is not surprising because these are the companies that have the highest free cash flow and why is free cash flow important for those who don't -- for the viewers who don't follow that what can you do, dividends, buy backs, you have optionality, and we want our clients to have optionality to be invested we think those three together give our clients good yield. >> sector health care, so staying with a theme that has worked briefly tell me that and i want to comment >> i want to say consumer staples but i think they're too expensive. health care in a slow down people are not going to stop going to the doctor, stop buying drugs. i think health care has right down the middle of growth at a re

more of a cup and handle >> exactly >> oh, god. >> we have to do more work. >> jim liebentha writes in >> especially the john lee sure of cyclicals. >> props to the farmer for being in there kari, i'm coming back to you i'm glad jim is on the show to have this conversation you sold alibaba better late than never, i guess. >> really. >> as i've heard people say on this show, i couldn't take it anymore. you're under this pressure with a stock you think is very attractive with this huge market and a lot of growth and the chinese government is insdeefrable they don't like jack ma, they don't like the business alibaba is in. there's a lot of pressure politically. you don't know whether it's going to get delisted, you don't know what's happening with the ant financial ipo. we can't as researchers make any coherent predictions about what's going to happen and just for us, you know, it made sense to sell it and use that spot for someone else. >> sometimes you have to take a loss and move on it's a tough pill to swallow to actually sell when the stock is getting hammered you've suggested it's irresponsible. i think that'

ark funds as well, the whole ark complex. >> wow a lot of hot take from you today, tom lee let's open it up farmer jim, do you have a question for tom lee >> think the question that i have are the epicenter stocks which i own a lot of, and weir talking about boeing have they gone too far too fast? it's going straight up, but isn't there a point, tom, whether it's boeing or whether it's the casinos or airlines in general where things just have to pause and consolidate >> yeah. all progress isn't a straight line i think the problem that people have when they look at epicenter is they have two sort of blinders they think the 2019 highs should be the ceiling which isn't correct because these companies have slashed operating costs as much as 30% and there's a lot of operating leverage and it's lower than it was in 2019 and they should be much higher and the epicenter is barely owned. in our conversations and in our zooms that we do, the buy side is exasperated and they don't really like value stocks or epicenter. they think those are merely rentals and i think they're underowned and underowned stocks can s

jim, steve, the brothers najarian. carrie is here, too. we'll also joined by the legendary money manager, lee coopermap of o megamessage advisers lee, we're so happy to have you with us today. how are you? >> good. >> dow's up 300 plus as we're coming on the air today. can you give me your thoughts on what's going on over these last many days? >> sure, best way to tackle it for me would be to explain what my attitude was coming into 2018 and what i'm thinking presently. i came into the year thinking the market would trade in the range up 10% at best maybe down 15% at worst. that there was much too much complacency and i like to come back and discuss each separately too much complacenccomplacency. everyone was many the same side of the boat. when everyone is in the same side, you've got to wonder a little bit third and most importantly, the conditions for a bear market weren't present and the good stock selection would be rewarded not with standing the market, i don't think the market has the 15% downside mainly because the economy's performing better and earnings are doing better. so i would

that makes it more difficult all that said, there is perhaps an opportunity, as tom lee says and jim is playing for this short-term burst do you believe in that or not? >> i mean, i've been talking about a u.n. melt up since like the end of october so i'm already in that camp as the viewers are aware. so i guess the way -- look, i think the market has essentially treated the pandemic like a natural disaster rather than an economic event it had a major impact on the economy obviously, but the market has basically shrugged this off as -- so i went back and i was reading about the san francisco earthquake at the start of the 20th century and the follow-through in stocks and the economy, et cetera it turns out it is a very similar play book in terms of the way modern day investors handle it. it's like a wildfire, it's like a hurricane except it happened in every region. country all at once. essentially that's how investors have treated this. i'm looking at stocks now breaking out to all-time record highs that are epicenter stocks. technically they look spectacular. we know the fundamenta

jeremy siegel, famed war on the professor, a little more bullish than lee cooperman. jim, where are you today. >> i'm in the wait and see category. look, if you look at the valuations, they're not cheap, they're not expensive. this isn't bubble territory but we're one week away from the earning stream to come in. next friday you get bank of america and a few other financials reporting. that's going to start the deluge of earnings. i'm at the point where i need to have it proven to me in what the dpek tives say xars looking forward into 2017 that the growth will be there. i suspect strongly that the growth and earnings is going to be there but i need to see it. i need to have it proven to me right now. >> i like it. a lot of the material names that pete and i have been talking about, the steel names just on fire here, judge. freeport, fcx, we talked about it for unusual call activity zooming higher. i think 7% on the week. i think he talked about weatherford at the beginning of this week and it's up 20% since last friday. i mean, these are names that are just under heavy a

. >> there's the minerd camp, the farmer jim, ubs, opco and the lee camp where are you putting your tent? >> i've got the s&p 500 at 5,000 by the end of next year. so i'm still very much in the bullish camp i am not in the correction camp. we tried to get a correction earlier this year and we got it. down a little over 10% didn't last very long. buyers came right back in. just too much liquidity in the system and it's up $5 trillion more today than it was at the beginning of the pandemic. we've got the fiscal stimulus coming at us and the big story really is the roaring 2020 story. what we really have, i think, is the beginning, just early stages of a major productivity boom and i think this one could be one for the history books because the technology that's out there, the productivity of the mental and physical productivity of workers in some ways was unprecedented so i'm -- the big surprise we've seen here on earnings have already been driven by productivity and it's been -- you just can't get the workers and the worker problem is related to demographics. they're just not there >> wha

"fast money" with melissa lee starts right now. >> thank you, jim cramer and welcome to the "the fast money halftime report" we don't follow the money, we are the money. john najarian, dr. jack, of option monster.com and steve cortes, el captain of veracruz research. the euro is cracking and greece is ride and multinationals depend own the euro zone are sending the major indices diving right now. gary, get off that phone! what are you doing? i heard you putting on a trade. >> well, as you know, i like to average up. i don't like to average down, and i've been waiting all day to continue to add to this short into europe because we're at a critical point right now and i've tuesday for the last several days that we'll talk about the european fundamentals that economy, the number that came out this morning of a .7% growth. that's the optimistic outlook for the rest of this year. i think europe is collapsing and i think it's going to be a negative number soon for the forecasts for 2010, and that's why i want to continue to be short europe. >> you can't ignore the commentary coming out of t

stoing me stephanie link, josh brown, jim lebenthal the jon najarian let's check stocks dow and s&p hitting record highs. i mentioned tom lee. sim bee yotic notes from them today. definitely on the same page. jim lebenthal it's about risk-on. you're on that page too because you say it's all in on risk. and that's where you are >> yeah, you know, i feel like a broken record and hate to be boring on the show repeating myself but same as last week >> too late >> you look at the macroenvironment and you say you have profits coming in better than expected. there is some pull forward from next year but not a lot. you have a supportive fed. they go whenever they go if liftoff is the end of 2022 more than a year ago i'm not worried about that you have infrastructure looks like it's coming it's hard to did he rail that at this point in time you've got the economy reopening, jobs being created. and, you know, this is exactly what i said last week and sorry about that, but i just find if hard to paint the bear case. >> why are you apologizing for having conviction on your view why are you apologizing >> because i'm boring. you know, w

jim lebenthal is talking about this valley, right? it's all pant what you see on the other side of the valley, right? tom lee sees a rainbow jim lebenthal is worried about nor storm clouds building. what do you see? >> well, jim just being cautious he's not worried he's not saying they're out there. he's saying, what if that storm comes across the pond or across the lake, scott? >> thank you, jon. thank you. >> you're very welcome, jim. i think what tom is saying is spot-on, scott i was down in indiana this week. they opened it up monday a week ago. most -- virtually all of the restaurants, bars, shopping centers had people in them most were keeping their respectful distances very few actually had the masks on, because they're not required, like they are here in chicago. but i think, scott, when you have people that have been basically shut in for this many months, just like mike wilson said yesterday, the reason tom is going to be so right here is that people will get out and they will rage i think ricky sandler was exactly right that this is going to be the raging '20s coming out of this, because people wa

more to the financials or do you go the other side of the coin and talk about what tom lee talked about, what jim cramer talked about on this program as well? what is the best trade right now? is it the nasdaq is it tech they have pigeonholed themselves as value investors, to now come out and take this victory lap because cyclicals have had a good couple months arkk, the primary vehicle through which people are playing small and mid-cap growth stocks is having a huge rebound, looking pretty good. shopify is breaking out to the up side, one of the poster children for large-cap, large valuation tech square looks good to, take a look at zoom, monster really off the lows just a couple weeks ago. roku is in the middle of a breakout docusign's run is continues. meanwhile, the bank, the materials, the industrials they've had a good first half so far, they're pulling back, but the pullback looks healthy what we know about the fact, is that the rotation has continually led to new highs now you have apple back at its highs of the last 30 days. amazon is still running. i told you i think that's the biggest

lee is reversing his call, what he calls a big change in direction. he will join us to explain the committee of course will debate it. joining me for the hour, shannon, david, jim, jon, good to have everybody with us. let's get to mtom lee. are you there? >> yeah, i'm here. >> good to see you when you were on with us a month ago, you downgraded the financials you double up graded the faang stocks it was a great call. you are reversing it today why? >> well, central to that view a month ago was the idea that consensus was expecting rates to push too high. in other words, we thought actual rates would undershoot. had to do with the idea that inflation expectations were coming down and gdp growth wasn't necessarily accelerating. now we've i think had a growth scare that really peaked yesterday. i think the headline might have been the tokyo olympics but it pushed the ten year down and now we think that it will shoot above consensus. in other words, we think rates are drifting higher, and that will lift basically the entire epicenter complex. >> i hear ya the problem i have with this call today, tom, is that you yourself say your conviction is only 60% i'm wonderin

you too. >> that's tom lee joining us guys, tom is not the only one talking about these names. degus, jim kramer has come out with his go stocks, if you will of stocks that will, in his estimation do incredibly well as you get closer to a return to whatever level of normalcy we're able to achieve on the other side of this disney, pvh, emerson, mastercard, any knike, ppg, unin pacific, newcore what do you think about some of those names? talk to me >> they're doing a lot of good things for profitability they are exceeding with sales. the valuations are like where we like to see them they are maintaining that. we're going to focus on more, not the sector but individual stock names. >> i gle with tagree with tom we want the see the market broadens out that strength it does make me nervous when things are so narrowly led it hasn't been as narrow as it was in the beginning i do think we're continuing to see a broadening out of strength sochl the names that you have up on the board, maybe they're not the sexiest names in the market but it would be nice to see them start to participate i'm optim

us on this tuesday here to debate the stories are joe terranova, stephanie link, jim lebenthal, jon najarian, and tom lee, the head of research advisers we'll begin where we always do, the markets. stocks are poised for their worst december since the great depressi depression the russell a bear market. all of this as the bond king, jeffrey gundlach, says the near decade run for stocks the longest bull market on record, is over. >> i'm pretty sure this is a bear market. i mean, people like this definition of 20% down as a bear market but that's very arbitrary. i've been around for over 35 years in the business and it's more about how you lead into it. how it develops and how the sentiment changes. we've had pretty much all of the variables that characterize a bear market. >> 880 stocks posted 52-week lows on monday is gundlach right? >> yeah, he is here is the thing. where are we in the bear market? we're pretty well along and poised to come out of it more than 50% of the stocks on the s&p 500 are down 20% that's been going on since july. and it's been this rotating every industry sort of gets into this b

so jim's trying to get out the door before everybody else tries to get out of the door tom lee says yes, there will be a correction more than likely in 2022, but it will not happen until mid-year once the fed starts to raise interest rates is jim leaving too many things on the table by trying to take profits now rather than ride the momentum or the fuel as tom lee puts it? >> well, first of all, i think it's really hard to time, but jim's talked about, he's 100% invested in equities, whereas i'm an asset allocator and we have diversified portfolios, jim it all in on equities and so if he thinks that's the prudent thing to do, that's his prerogative and i understand it. i do agree with kevin, though, sitting in cash because it's difficult because we always tell our investors there are two decisions to make. selling is really easy because it feels good and to jim's point the nasdaq's done 20% per year for the last two years the s&p has done 17% for the last ten years so the reversion will definitely come into play, but i do think as an investor, you have to remember that second decision i

. ♪ ♪ >> welcome to the halftime report on this friday, i'm melissa lee in for scott wopner. jimenthal. josh brown, and najarian brothers and our game plan looks like this bezos delivers, amazon is making it rain in the cloud and the stock is surging to an all-time high. >>> cutting the cord, no deal for comcast and time warner, what's the cable trade now? we'll break it down. >>> and look at the markets, the nasdaq is just three points off of a new high. a record high. these four stocks all reported earnings last night. dr. jay, how far can we go with support like this four major stocks of the nasdaq 100 coming in with better-than-expected earnings surging on the back of them. >> take look at microsoft. of those that reported i thought this was one of the most impressive. microsoft trades at a 17 pe. when you're talking bubbling and whether or not it's a bubble. this one looks very attractive to me, probably into the low to mid 50s. in other words, breaking through 52-week highs, i'm not saying today, but this year, think the stock has 55 as the target on it. >> did we reset on

still looking forward in terms of decision mow to get invested, based upon what jim lebenthal pointed out -- the fed. you have lee coopman with his interview, buffett, munger, all calling out saying, hey, inflation is going to pick up. nobody sees it an transitory except yellen and powell and his colleagues on the fed. i think that is the issue. going into that we have mods numbers in terms of economic reports, but it's a big number on friday we'll look alternate in terms of payroll. a million is the baseline narrative. if we see much more than that or much below that, but with the insatiable appetite that foreign countries have, sovereigns and businesses, for u.s. ten-year and bonds up and down, as we've seen the auction, as long as rates stay until control in terms of used, not fed rates, you'll get compensation in the market you can see a trade down what is more important is where you are in the market, and despite where the vix is, that belies what's actually happening in the rotation. >> let me stop you right there i'm going to stop you right there. you said it depends on where you are in the market. that's

. >> jon najarian, you're extremely negative sounds to me against what is farmer jim and kevin o'leary and tom lee'simism >> yeah. i mean, i'm an optimistic guy overall, scott, but i'm also a realist and would love to hear tom's opinion. tom, you heard ford had significantly higher delinquencies, that's coming from a low rate, i get it, but that's only going to be accelerating the next year that's going to go to credit card debt, to mortgages. we all know how this snowballs how can i be as optimistic as you, tom, if i know that consumers that are 70% of the economy are going to be strapped they're not going to be able to trade as far as there will be more people renting because home affordability is going to go down, meeting that mortgage payment will be tougher, unless biden did something about an energy policy which he has only done a negative energy policy so far. you already said the price that will be paid to transport items for people, i mean, increasing interest rates doesn't bring down food prices or gas prices down it doesn't you can impact other things, those two will not be brought down p

lee cooperman. you might think that what jim's talking about has less than zero chance of coming to fruition >> no, i actually don't at all and if i go back to the market letter they wrote in year end for january thinking about this year it's exactly in the range when you say 5030, that sounds like a big number. you know what it is? it's up 10%. you know what it is? jim thinks there is a reasonably high chance that it ends up 7% that seems reasonable to me. it also seems reasonable to me that the market could be down 7% and i love josh's analogy and josh, that's one of the best ones you've ever had, and i've been thinking about it and i haven't been able to elaborate it like josh just did. we're dragging through mud and if things are better than expected and the fed threads the needle correctly and supply chains go up, and what jim is proposing it's totally plausible. it doesn't mneed to be crazy if i'm bearish, we being the s&p 500, i think we can get nuanced within that, too >> here's my problem with that, jenny. >> okay. >> obviously, that's the first reaction i would have to what you just said,

hares been consistent, he's told you what's coming and you do have those whether it's tom lee or our own jim labenthal who refuse to believe what lies ahead. what do you say to that? >> the fed is getting its way all over the place if you were to substitute more recent shelter data specifically rents for the extraordinarily lag data that is going into the fed's calculations they are very much going to continue to get their way in january, february, and march. we're looking at the next cpi report most likely with a six handle and that is most likely going to continue to fall from there. the question is how fast will it continue to fall i know it sounds crazy we've been like, oh, it's so stubbornly high, dpret about it. you've got u.s. retail sales in november down 0.6. that was supposed to be down 0.1. the consumer has gotten the message. they have stopped spending in a lot of categories on a dime. the housing market is closing. there is nothing going on there. don't tell me that the fed isn't making progress on inflation after talking to mortgage people, realtors forget it, it's over and hou

jim. also with us on set is tom lee. the founder of fun strap global advisors.ur game plan looks like this today. belly up. the stunning number of energy companies one man says could go bankrupt in the crude collapse. he's going to join us live to explain. the hot trade stephanie says is finally starting to pay off and whether it can continue. we begin with the hunt for the bottom in stocks. another big rally giving investors hope that maybe the worst is, in fact, behind us. our question this hour is whether any can really be trusted with a whole host of issues still worrying the markets. whether it's oil, the strength of the banks, china's credit pile. is this a punk rally we have gotten the last couple of days? >> when you get a decline in the marketplace it takes the shape of an alphabet letter. sit going to be a v in i don't think so. it's going to look more like a u. hopefully it's not an l. the first thing you want to see is stability in the marketplace. scott you're beginning to see that companies are buying back stocks. i like what's happening in the nex

i understand you referenced jim lebenthal in the call he made yesterday and we had tom lee on yesterday, too, and you'll hear from him in just a second, but now since you teed it up i want to hear from jim lebenthal right now. when he told us yesterday and why he seems to be growing more bullish almost by the day and why it's going to continue for the next couple of weeks here he is >> i do feel confident that that conflict will become clearer the outcome oneway or the othe over the next two weeks and that sets the stage for the economic strength, particularly in the u.s. to shine through. accordingly, i have been adding to stocks over the next two weeks and i know i've raised cash, and i've cut it down by 5% by buying cyclical and reopenings and whether it's the financials this week or wynn or paramount last week when you were out sick. i think you have two weeks to use your dry powder and you know what, scott? it's time to dust off the all-in moniker because in two weeks i'll be wearing it again. >> that's a big statement, jenny. big and bold from the big farmer who said he's about to

can get right back to where we were with a tweet or a headline. >> let tom lee -- >> and i think part of the discussion and jim brought it up is how much is priced in we put out a piece this week on this a 3% decline in one day for the s&p, it's pretty rare. three months later, market is up 87% of the time. more importantly on the vix if you look at the term structure, the four-month is now lower than the one-month. we had an inversion. five of the last seven times that term structure inverted we bottomed within days so i think the market has repositioned more than people think. that's why -- >> just to add to that i don't want to give the impression i'm more bearish. i have more exposure more long exposure now than i had on monday but still not back to where it was. >> all right >> just choosing my spots. >> tom lee, thank you. steve liesman, thanks to you as always >>> i want to give you a programming note for you as well tomorrow on "halftime," billionaire investor carl icahn will be joining me for an exclusive interview. lots to talk about you could say the least. we'll obviously touch on what's happening

at a discount i think there's a lot to like about it right now >> jim, i want you to weigh in on another provocative headline from tom lee he does this well. he knows how to get us talking and he has us talking today because he says the expected dip that we may see in the stock market is one to buy and will likely be the last best buying opportunity of the entire year >> i agree with our colleague. i expect the dipthe question that i have and nobody knows the answer to is whether six feet social distancing is going to be the new norm i don't know i want to buy at that dip. >> we go down 8 or 9%. what are you going to be buying? >> let's start with the funnest one out there. >> he's got 125 billion in cash with a strong track record of buying at the bottom i would like to play along with mr. berkshire. i have great operating companies. i have the insurance business. that's at the top of the list. others i would consider buying, we talked about phizer last week we have to have more health care exposure that's a great way to play it and the demographics favre rit i don't want to take up too much time but there's two obvious

. >> melissa lee with a look at what's coming up on "power lunch." jim chanos still with us. valeant, are you still short? >> yes. >> bill miller said it's one of his long positions. >> that's what makes markets. >> why are you still short? >> the roll-up model does not work in reverse. we said on stalk i think the mistake that the bulds are contin -- bulls are continuing to make is they add back am omortization. if they weren't counting their r & d expense, they too would look cheap. it's just a simple matter of accounting. if i buy $40 billion worth of drugs that will roll off somewhere between four and 20 years, the s.e.c. makes me write that off or 10 to 11 years. that's about right. valia valaan -- valeant doesn't do th. analysts know if it's going to be gone in ten years like a melting ice cube, you have to replace it. you can't from a valuation point of view capitalize that expense even though it's non-cash. you can use the cash, but you should use the cash to buy more drugs. right? to replace what's gone. that's been the problem from the stock from $100 to $290 to $20

our investment committee is here, stephanie link is here and jim cramer, host of "mad money." new record tom leeo 2800 and we're chasing it again and correction, done >> i think this is the season's strongest period and we're down a couple of days and the 23-year period, you can find this moment very typical it is what happens now i've got to tell you, of course we all listen to everyone and paul tudor jones and there are people talking the big book and the big book is paypal is an idiot, jay powell has preannounced and let's fire him. i think he's presided over tremendous wealth creation that's including everyone this time in the same sense of doing that has he inflated this tremendous inflationary environment that i'm thinking, do you need a they know nothing >> i can't do that because what happened is there are a lot of companies that scrap their capex plans because they were in the middle of a pandemic and it's hard to just kind of turn the switch whether it be sanjay, you just can't switch and say we'll spend capex and we're not using bill plants overnight. we are america and it takes a lon

i there's a lot of opportunities out there, too >> farmer jim, on december the 28th, you agreed with everything that tom lee was saying. right now you got to ride this that's what you told me, right you were looking for this run to continue >> yes >> then i look up today and i see that you have sold winnebago, massive winner, and that you sold your apple trading position, which you only initiated a couple weeks ago you've got some explaining to do >> feels like you're calling me out but -- >> little bit. >> i've been consistent. i said i agree you have to ride it and probably second half of january is when you get a correction, when the bonuses are all out there, 401(k) contributions are all done that doesn't mean i'm going to wait until january 16th and then start selling. as a portfolio manager, scott, you know this but this is important. my job is to buy low and sell high right now with the market where it is, it is so much easier for me to sell high than buy low i look at winnebago. the company has been a phenomenal flyer it's more than tripled in two years. but i'm looking at rus risk rig now and prepa

. >> that was goldman zachs management chairman jim o'neill this morning on "squawk." what is jpmorgan's tom lee seeing now for 2013? he is joining us live from new york city. tom, welcome back, good to see you. >> thank you for having me. >> we are going to get the cliff settled one way or another, but what's in store for 2013 and the stock market? >> we think overall it will be a pretty good year for markets because we are in the fifth year of a bull market. i think a lot of the talk, michael furley talked about 50 years recovering, it is very good with the economy strengthening. and relative values restored versus high yield. but the first half will be pretty tricky. so i think it's really going to be a good second half story for equity markets. >> you have a target of 1580 for the s&p year-end and you want cyclical stocks to be the mode of investment choice for the folks watching this show. so, i mean, that sounds like risks going all the way to me. 1580, heavy cyclicals, we are off to the races. >> that's right. in fact, if you just look at how the market has acted since december 18th, we a

lee be on the money again. we'll speak to him in a moment and debate the big call. joining me for the hour are stephanie link, jim, pete and rob with ubs private wealth management one of forbes top 100 advisers >> great to see you. thanks for having me >> ted line as you go from 34.50 to 35.25 it's on the back of what you have coined the epicenter stocks why today to raise your target >> i think we're nearing a really important level a lot of guys are saying this is a sign of a renewed bull market. i think we should be constructive on an all time break out. i think the upside, which is why we're raising our target will come from the epicenter. these go back to their february highs. that adds 150 points to the market add to that to are we are today and that gets 35.25. >> you said today was going to be the day for this. what you coined monsterous rally. there's no real indication, tom, that growth is ready to give up its leadership role, is there? >> no. people have been successful sticking with the growth stocks. i think it will tough to give that up plus they are still cheap against bond proxies the epicenter, t

lee and the "halftime report." ♪ ♪ >>> welcome to the-ha "halftime report," jim lebenthal, josh brown, kate moore, and dan greenhouseief global strategist with btig. our game plan, sticker shock -- today's new home sales disappoint as buyers hold back in june. what's the best trade on real estate? social circle, traders take their positions ahead of twitter, facebook and linkedin earnings. and amazon surging on a profitable quarter. the company is killing it in the cloud. there's a flood of analysts raising price targets on the stock today. it's amazing the chase that we're seeing today on the street. it looks like morgan stanley has a highest price target at $740 a share. >> my target is 741. >> you beat them. >> one of the more interesting comments that i read this morning came from barclays, basically saying normally we would never come out the day after a company reports a quarter like this and then change our rating or change our price target rather. but they said in this case, we don't think investors have a chance to wait. so they went to an overweight and lifted their target. when you start to see stuff like

jim. how's it going down there? >> well, i got to tell you, i listened to lee. got some great stuff for you about exactly the oil patch he mentioned. we have a lot of things to talk about and synergistic to what he's saying. >> cooperman, cramer, icahn, i can think of nothing better for a show. see you soon. back after this. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. lemme just get this out of here. to go. unlike some places, we don't just change your oil. our oil offer comes with a four-tire rotation and a 27-point inspection. and everything looked great. actually, could you leave those in? sure. want me to run him through the car wash for you, too? no, no, i can't. and right now get acdelco professional durastop brake pads installed for only $99.95 or less per axle. chevy certified service. (announcer) scottrade knows our and invest their own way. with scot

lee, the managing partner. i may as well call you mr. all in, not jim, because you've been all in for what seems like forever. are you still looking at 4700 on the s&p 500 by the end of this year, tom lee? >> yeah. i know september was an ugly month, really tough, down 5%, but in the scheme of a market that can end the year at 47 00 and i agree with josh and the other panelists and it's just a squiggle and it will look like nothing in 12 months, and i know investors are nervous and there are a lot of headwinds here. when the wall of worry is big, that's also a good opportunity for investors. >> i know, but why did we have such a bad month in september? it's seasonal, and i get that, but it's more than that and we're entering another typical tough month and that's october and i feel like it's brushing off in september as if it doesn't even exist >> yeah. there was definitely a message coming out of markets in september because it really puts us on the knife edge if you're half full or half empty. you're seeing signs of good demand and stagnation. is washington turmoil something that is resolved or does it get w

lee who called this record run. joining me for the hour today, brynn talkington, jim sapperstein, jim lebenthal the s&p 500 above 4700 the nasdaq 16,000 for the first time ever and lower for the yield, 146 on the back of that news we got and take a look at those four stocks at the bottom of your screen they are some of the day's biggest movers they are in our wheel house today. our committee owns them. you will get cameos today from kerry firestone, stephanie link to talk about each of those stocks and what they are doing right now. we're very excited about that. farmer jim, i'm going to start with you mr. all in, you get the first word because you've been the most rate. >> scott, judge, you honor me and i appreciate you coming to me on a day when i just feel great, and i felt great all week i realize the market is at all-time highs, but when you look underneath the index and look at the re-opening trades in particular, they still have a long way to go we are just starting 2.0 of the re-opening trade that's why you see the airlines on fire and that's why you see the casinos on fire and the hotels, cruise lines and th

the banks now or wait for a better opportunity with us for the hour, jim leventhal, josh brown, sirott seti, and also here, tom lee and finally, from lake joseph, canada, mr. wonderful, kevin o'leary, chair of oshares etf investments. somehow he brought a billboard to a lake. the sector is well off its lows but a rough session for jpmorgan, citigroup, and wells fargo. pnc and first republic also reporting this morning, guys it is a big bank day the overall market is up, sirott, the banks are down is this a buying opportunity for banks or wait, because they're going to go even lower >> i think wait a little bit they're great opportunities. i want to own the banks down road i'm pretty fully invested. i think going forward, if you believe that our economy is going to have steady, slow growth, you believe that interest rates will slowly move up over time, these are great management teams they're going to underpromise and overdeliver. and i think the expectations going forward are not as good as what we think -- >> i hear you, but jon najarian, that doesn't look like it's the case today it looks like they're overpromis

. >> so here's the thing, jim's not the only one who is looking for a fed pivot. there's tom lee who's looking for a pivot later in the year. the wharton professor jeremy siegel is looking for a pivot later in the year. my issue with part of what jim said is that jim says the economy is going to take off when the fed pivots. i could see the stock market -- >> there already is. >> hold on i could see the stock market taking off when the fed pivots, but the fed's going to pivot if the economy is weak and forces its hand to pivot. that doesn't mean the economy is going to take off. the market may take off in advance of the economy reaccelerating, which may be in a recession at that point in time >> scott, i certainly see your point, okay? i'm not -- i disagree with it, but i see it, and the reason that i disagree and you've touched on some of this. you know, the fed funds future market now has the fed peaking at 3.4, maybe it's 3.5% depending on what day you look at it. i think they're going to do 75 basis points here at the end of the month. why wouldn't they? it's priced in 50 bas

and maybe, steve, it has something to do and, tom lee, i'll ask you about an article that jim cramer penned for cnbc.com. i urge all of you to check this out. in that there's been a tectonic shift, he says, in the market, that means buy not sell a rate hike. the economy is doing better, that business is doing better and more confident, and that the fed hiking now is a sign of strength, not weakness. >> i mean, i would whole heartedly agree with all the points being made there. i mean, i think we are mid cycle in a bull market, and the last ten years $7 trillion of household savings basically none of it go into the stock market. and most of it in the bond market. so a reallocation into stocks and we know pensions, you know, if you look at any of the oec data, the allocation of pensions is ten-year low. there's a lot of money to move into stocks. but, again, i think we're entering a period where it's a policy put over a fed put and that's why we kind of think choppier markets. >> steve, we're under two minutes before we're going the get this joint news at the white house but this notio

jim lebenthal is talking about. in the face of caution, there's tom lee. who do you agree with?i think i agree with both of them i know it is cowardly. in the longer term i agree more with tom lee, but in the intermediate turn i wouldn't be surprised to see more volatility you know, when you look at what has happened, the market was really hit with a one, two, three punch and then a threatened upper cut the market expected guidance over the last few weeks to be high and i don't know that it matched all expectations from an earnings perspective two vaccination rates and increased mobility restrictions in certain countries i think scared markets you saw that in india. you saw that in brazil then i think that we just got too complacent markets probably moved too far too fast, and you saw that in wildly low and complacent indicating vix levels. so to see some digestion as it related to that, specifically in some sectors, was a little scary. but on the other side of it, you had this huge geopolitical upper cut threat i thought the markets behaved really rather well to that so when yo

. >> so, tiffany, let's talk about what jim has said because there's a lot there. at times he sounded like tom lee. you sounded like tom lee, who says, since 1945 - >> i'll take that as a compliment. >> december -- the bull, tom lee. this is a compliment tom lee's been right since 1945, tom lee said, when the s&p is up 10% to 15% to this point in the year, it's up 100% of the time in december. bank of america, typically a strong month for stocks and active funds she thinks stocks are going higher a lot of other people think stocks are going higher. is the market delusional about the here to there, meaning from now until we actually get the vaccine widely rolled out? >> yeah, i don't think the market is delusional i think jim brought up a couple good points. you know, we're talking about -- started off talking about risks. and i think one of the major risks we have, you know, to the economy right now is the lack of stimulus we're sitting around talking about stocks and the market. well, you know, the stock market is not the economy and -- but the stock market needs the economy ultimately to do well

jim did. i think proerptly. i'm all for it >> josh, tom lee says stocks may be pricing in the worst is yet to come. he's looking at 62% retrace of the rally since june would be a convenient place to price that in. that level is 32.24 within a stones throw of that he views that level as one of the most important to watch. where do you think we are? >> that's a really important question because the market is moving so fast these days. we could say something here at 12:00 that looks ridiculous at 2:00 one thing that i find interesting has been so much emphasis about big cap tech, big cap tech over and over again look at the qs they're down 20 basis point ons the week based on where they are trading at this moment they barely done anything this week in the meanwhile, energy just being liquidated not sold, liquidated the xle names are down 12% on the week and it's only thursday. the cruise lines -- the cruises and the airlines are down pretty much almost all of them more than 4% today. the jets etf for the airlines is down more than 10% on the week yeah, large cap tech had kind of a blow off top and has

jim cramer, najarian brothers as well. "power lunch" begins now. >>> i'm melissa lee. here's what's on the menu.e duel in the desert, the final presidential debate. we'll take you there live. elections, earnings and the economy, how the smart money is playing all the uncertainty. and something big is cooking at facebook. "power lunch" starts now. ♪ it's the final countdown ♪ >> don't you wish the election was tomorrow? but it is not. here is what else is happening at this hour. t-mobile fined for slowing down data speeds for people

lee is coming up after the break. >> no -- >> he's going to paint a picture which messes with farmer jim brenda, how do i take the fed chair's words today, how do i take everybody in the committee today, their words and put it into action in terms of the markets? if you think rates are going to go up like some still do, rates haven't peaked, that's some of the commentary tech has gotten beaten up good over the last couple of weeks. what do i want to do here? >> i think we have to consider especially given jay powell's words today maintaining a stance for a restricted period of time. if we have slower economic growth for a prolonged period of time we have to think about how do you position that environment if you want to stay invested and looking at these cyclical sectors that have done so well over the last few years, i think we could see a shift in market leadership back to high-quality tech companies, because when you look at those cyclical sectors, many of them are just going to have a hard time growing if they don't have economic growth at their back the energy sector is the exception in the basket. broadly speak