>>before the beige book, let's bring in mike santoli to make sense of nvidia and jolt. so mike, we're asking you to do something nearly impossible but we know you're the man for this job. which is to combine nvidia, the ai stock, with the job opening and labor turnover survey report. but i know you can do it. >> well, i think those are alongside or catty corner to each other as opposed to intertwined, but i do think they are separate parallel sources of unease for this market. so we have this extreme sensitive to any sign that the economy is stalling and not just slowing. at the same time, the market has been trying to wean itself off of a reliance on the big megacap growth stocks. nvidia being the prime mover there. because those stocks are no longer quite dominating earnings growth, but this rotation into other types of stocks has been complicated by the fact that economic numbers look like they're dicier, at least they're consistent with the idea that some fear we might be slowing a little more than hoped. that's the jolts data. perhaps feeds into that i think in gen

>> all right, melissa, now to mike santoli at the nyse following the fallout from the latest round of earnings reports. and mike, we are off the worst levels of the day but is there a feeling from the floor down there that this is something that we should maybe take a little bit of a pause on before we get all on tptimistic about t >> i think it's a show me market, you have to wait and see, although i do think the early morning plunge and the way the market kind of absorbed that early sell-off just checked off a few of the boxes of what people would like to see with regard to a retest of those lows from october 11. you can every call an all clear but i do think when you saw the very weak opening you did break the intraday lows from october 11th and it didn't really fall apart from there, bounced. and the volatility index made a high near 25 and came back all of this is fitting together. that being said the reactions to earnings are still pretty hostile on balance and i do think some of the forward guidance on the big industrials are confirming some fears we had

mike santoli remembers the flash crash. >> sure., right >> always, you can ask mike santoli, we got to bring back the trivia gentlemen, thank you, both appreciate it. mike santoli and mike bailey >>> let's get to the bond market ten year is lower after this morning's inflation data rick santelli has the latest. >> treasury yields are lower on the day. the ten-year, as you look the a chart that starts last friday, still a couple of basis points higher on the week what is the motivation for these moves? let's go to our guest chem and the white board here chem, this is a pretty easy read here, okay here is our income data, the florida metrics for inflation embedded into the number if you look at the top, is it -- this is last month, this is this month. what conclusions can you draw? >> stagnation, inflation stagf stagflation, right this is what we have been talking on and on. people call it a soft landing. it is not a soft landing still a hot inflation number with a slowing economy >> yeah, there is very little doubt. these numbers are

not mike santoli. rick santelli in chicago. hey, rick. >> yes, not santoli. at the cbo. little late, we saw chairman bernanke in front of the economic club of new york. as you look at the charts, you can see at 12:40 eastern we had vol. the initial reaction was hope, rates went down. ultimately, rates are higher across the curve post-powell. the big news today, yield curves are flattening. no matter what combination you pick, two to tens, low 20s, two to 30s hovering right around sf zero. it hasn't been there since january. we know why. the market will pay a lot more attention to the election without all the blaring negativity of main street media. jim, obviously, it's been a wild weekend. i'm older. joe kernen is older. we all remember what happened in '60s and '70s, assassinations. we never went want to get back to that. it did have a minor impact on the market. >> you have to be watching golds, there's a break-even story happening under the hood. i think people are getting a little -- a little more nervous about what this means. it's not just about trump getting elect

>> sure. >> mike santoli, close the discussion off. what does mr.arket want to see out of the election? >> aside from getting past it, i'm persuaded by the idea that the market probabilistic says the most likely set of outconditions is red waive or harris win with his some gridlock, which is a statue quo type of outcome, in which case the market can make its peace with that policy set. in the near term, you've seen an aggressive overplaying of the aggressive trump tried, because that outcome would have a much more extreme or dramatic effect directly on some quantifiable trade. if i told you harris is going to lose, it's not as clean a trade as dyt or coal or, you know, something like that where you feel like you have a clear path. that being said, i think beyond a sort of final settlement of the election, you basically want nothing super extreme. i don't think what the market wants is genuinely mass deportations plus tariffs on day one. that would be more disruptive than is priced in right now. >> mike santoli and ashish sha, thank you. >>> rick, sh

and mike santoli said something pretty smart or perceptive when he was on just a minute ago. he said the first thing you have got to do is pick the right sectors. he mentioned a couple of them. but materials, industrials, they are performing well today. they are going to perform well if we have an ongoing bull market, which i still think we are going to have. and then i would also add consumer discretion father and technology those are economically sensitive sectors and the types of sectors that perform well. the first thing you have got to do is get the sector right those are the four sectors i would focus on then the next thing you have to do is enhance your returns by having a good dividend yield a. good dividend yields in those sectors is always attainable there is a combination that you can do you can go beyond that by working with private equity if your investment adviser can steer you in the right direction towards real estate. that's a little bit beyond what i am talking about what i am talking about, sectors right, dividends, that's the way to do it. >> you are like

ben white, josh boak, kneel nein and michael santoli.real dissenters on this fed board and who is it if he does is it. >> he has esther george, the president of the kansas city fed who is dissenting this year. i suspect she will again today and then some of the people not voting are very much in the hawkish camp. that's richard fisher, charlie plosser. the thing is bernanke for now has control over this federal open market committee. the governors are on his side. all seven of them, they vote every meeting. he has enough of critical mass of the regional presidents. the question is will we see dissents later, maybe a year for now. jeremy stein has expressed worries about asset bubbles. >> ben, any dissent there from you? >> no dissent from me. maybe bullard comes out with a dissent. the most he gets are two. there's not a lot of resistance. he dominates the open market committee for now. there's no real reason for the hawks to gain a lot of traction as we've talked about, see prcy sequestration, debt ceiling. you have seen some economic b

michael santoli. ken stern is president of lito adviser. he caps the fed to go with a quarter-point cut. good to see you. >> good to see you. >> there's a couple of sort of things in the cross currents here's. there's japan's raising rates or dollar is falling, that's 50/50. is there anything that tells you we could be set up for the big move we saw in early august or early september? you know, in other words, to the downside? >> well, i don't think so. i think the market is not going to like either, quite frankly. it's none of the above right now. if it's 25 they're going to argue it should have been 50. if it's 50 they're going to say what else is going to go bump in the night that we don't know about. and that's the issue that we're having right now. i think with unemployment where it is, i think spending's coming down a little bit, debt's coming up a little bit. but it's not catastrophic for the consumer. so what's the upside for the feds to go 50? that i don't see. >> well, people might just say the upside is rates are literally too hi

>>> let's get back to the setup for the broader market now and on that note, we bring in michael santoliork stock exchange. mike, still feels like this kind of year-end hopeum is in tact. >> yeah, no doubt we bought ourself dip buying potential if we get a pull back into year end. we have been hesitating, kelly. i would say for more than a week around this 45, 50 level of the s&p but before that and three weeks prior you're up 10%. little fatigue in the market. got pretty dovish interpretation of that fed governor waller speech earlier. that was mostly in the market that the fed's next move is likely a cut. but i do think that gives some relief on yields. just wonder how much more you can get out of that in very short term because we have been operating for weeks under the premises of we're well past peak yield, peak inflation and peak oil. yields down. oil, other commodities like gold up and the dollar off a little bit. so, i think we're kind of, you know, just sort of circling around the edges of this rally. to me, the big take away going into next year is what waller said and the main

i think mike santoli had it exactly right. you know, how much has been discounted one thing about this potential recession, which frankly we don't even know how to define is that it's pretty anticipated, and usually the market doesn't get hammered when it anticipates things this much and so there's some cheap stocks out there, and i think a lot of it has been discounted. >> so if it has been, like you said, if a recession does come, you can't say that you weren't prepared for it, right because we've been talking about it now for about six months and even more so for the last three. if you talk about those stock picks, then, what are the places to be in is it strictly utilities and consumer staple stocks, or do you kind of still play the diversification game given the fact that there is an opportunity that may present itself in certain areas of the market >> yeah, i think as we come into earnings season, it's more important to giver yourself some flexibility. that's sort of number one as we face the next three weeks or so. i th

what all this means for the markets, as we head into friday's big jobs report, we turn to michael santoli. what are you thinking? >> you laid it out there. this market is running in parallel, the ai-driven market, cr crystallized to nvidia. today is the day, though, where you have other things working. the economy was craving news that it's still plugging along okay. the stocks that usually do well when that happens were not doing well. they were actually lagging. that got a relief trade today. >> it does remain as the nasdaq following along, or maybe even pulling the direction, and suppressing volatility. i think this is a key point here. when you have lots of things moving on its own, it keeps the volatility lower, and the vix is down around 13 again. that, in a weird way, emboldens big institutions to own more. their models say it's safer to stay in and stay exposed. s&p is also on track for a closing high. >> wow. mike, stay there. our next guest says the rate cutting cycle may begin, and this is the conversation to have. jim tierney, the c.i.o. of consequence trailed growth with bern

mike and mike, mike santoli, mike bailey, thank you very much. get more of mike santoli's market thoughts tonight at 6:00 p.m. on "taking stock." mike and josh brown will discuss the issues facing the markets and says they're going to have fun doing it. >> looks like we were having fun in that moment. >> that is two guys having fun. >> we'll see. >> can you give me -- >> tell me what josh will be wrong about -- >> what you're going to be right about. >>> coming up next on "power lunch," some headwinds for wind turbines. the offshore wind industry is norv gating unchartered waters, inflationary pressures and rising rates pushing up overall costs. details are next. further ahead, college tuition costs are growing well beyond what many families can afford. it's driving many americans further into debt. he e tas enpor lunch" returns. >>> welcome back. time for our etf tracker. we look at gold funds despite the rising yields and concerns about china gold is down about 1% this week and the gold etf seeing net outflows of $373 million over the past week

mike santoli, good to have you in the house, thank you. appreciate it. >>> the fed yieldgetting back for the first time. rick santelli has the latest from chicago. rick? >> every session, other than the hand-off from last month to the first day of october, has seen a higher yield fourth consecutive session, and not only that, every session has traded. if you look at the 2s and 10s on the chart, we're in the 360s on a 2-year. where it stands right now, up a half a dozen basis points, and it briefly did tame ever. it started out the beginning of the month in the 370s. if we look at the two charts, the speed of this -- this is a two-week chart. we've gone from a 27-month wide on the 25th to a breefs. earlier today, under zero. that really does underscore how the market is pushed bay against the fed, and it really highlights the fed controls overnight funds and a giant microphone. but the rest have their own life. speaking of that, we have 10-, 3-s, 30-. it underscores the speed of the market. kelly, back to you. >> thanks very much. >>> comin

mike santoli is over at the nyse >> kelly, relatively encouraging in terms of the cadence this recovery, also that the market itself is responding to a setup which coming into this week looked like the prior five or so percent pullbacks we saw earlier this year. there were two of them in each case the s&p came back below the surface a correction of the average stock that all was in place. my take on how we are seeing it right now is in the morning everyone was wary of the continued force selling we saw last week. when it didn't materialize, then you could do the dip bye also, the return to this area right there, the highs from september nd we gave up about half of the october into november rally. all of that is relatively textbook look at some of the real beaten up areas, some of the excesses that have been purged in small cap growth, also cloud software. if you look at those things compared to the s&p 500, you see what happened here it's really an isolated exit fromthose types of areas we have been talking a lot with it that's the area that saw a huge run in the first quarter of this y

hugh johnson, mike santoli, thanks very much. appreciate it. >> my pleasure. >>> turning now to a bright spot amid the selloff, the meme trade. shares of gamestop are soaring more than 30% after roaring kitty, as the trader is known, posted on his account a $160 million position in the company. is the gamestop rally really here to stay? what would it mean for the meme market and the market overall, let's ask michael noss. as this becomes more and more common, people are starting to wonder whether we should institutionalize as a trading strategy being long heavy shorted names. they said it's too hard to market time and to know exactly when these stocks will pop. what are your thoughts? >> yeah, if we're looking at heavily shorted names as a broad bunch, generally speaking they're heavily shorted for a reason. that's why i think even the phrase meme stock, i think, needs to start to be broken up a little bit here. where we have stocks like amc down 99% from their meme stock craze and bed bath & beyond that's gone completely, and ga

mike santoli.or more on the markets and this year's biggest selloff so far, let's bring in a managing partner at dcla, and a cnbc contributor. he'll be with us for the entire hour. what do you make of what's been going on the past couple of weeks? >> i think we have had such a quick run this year. nobody expected the market to be up 10%, but what they didexpect with that was that you would see some fat cuts. you've got a strong economy and you've got inflation. where do we go forward from here, and at what point do you get cuts? you've got multiple expansions and s&p 21. it's up to earnings. it's up to companies that provide good earnings and good expectations. >> we're going to talk a little bit more about that. >> they weren't really that bad. >> they weren't that bad? that's what i'm reading. >> look at jpmorgan, right? year to date, it's up 7% after selloff. a year ago, it's up 43%. the s&p is up 25%. so a lot of it was built in on the expectations. now what happens is you get the selloff. you

. >>> we'll start with the broader market which had investors navigating what mike santoli has called a confusing macro maze. there are things to worry about with bond yields, the fed, the broader economy. it seems to change day to day. let's bring mike in to guide us through the maze. >> jon, i consider it a maze because we keep running around and across the same levels. the index is reacting to the same feedback loops. we're at 4400 on the s&p. we got here five months ago. we traded at this level every month since. we know why. the economy's been much stronger than expected five months ago. yields have gone up. we had to kind of digest higher for longer fed. that in itself undermines expectations that the economy itself can continue to grow. how do we get out of this? are there any ways we can see past this dynamic? i would say the fact that we've kind of had a modest earnings recession and now 12-month forward earning estimates are walking higher again, that's one box you can check off, at least for now. yes, it's very uneven, yes, mostly the hugest stocks driving that earnings gro

steve liesman, mike santoli and welcome.ice to have you in the house. >>> despite being closely tied to the regional bank space, the mortgage market has held strong against all this ongoing volatility the new mortgage fees go into effect today from fannie and freddie and they are creating waves. >>> further ahead, this week is giving us key insights on the economy. we've got the fed wednesday. we've got jobs friday. but first today we'll get a gauge of the consumer with the ceo of mattel. "power lunch" is back in a moment the people who live and work there. because you call these communities home, and we do too. pnc bank. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. meet stephanie... goodnight! and bethany... [guhhnnaaaghh] identical twins. both struggle with cpap for their sleep apnea. but stephanie got insp

let's bring in mike santoli to discuss. mike, i say that noting that we are lower right now in the markets. but the fact that this report was so strong, unemployment rate actually ticked lower. the response here, why hasn't it been worse >> well, yes definitely worth asking that question just because we're conditioned to see such a dramatic show of unexpectedly good news to translate into a rougher time for stocks. and we are still in the s&p 500 well above where we were above that fed decision on wednesday so, that's a good benchmark. a few things we could point to, a perceived fluke factor in the beat on payrolls, not to say it's all seasonal adjustments or it's all one-off factors, whether it beillness or other things it just seems that it's a little bit high yes, it reinforces the idea the labor market is tight, but not necessarily something we can plan on this being the pace going ahead from here. the other part of it is what jay powell did on wednesday was in part to delink the unemployment rate from immediate fed pol

mike santoli, fold this in, give us a preview of your column this weekend. most bullish commentary i'm seeing from analysts, broadly speaking, is they see both earnings and multiples growing, and even at a moment when the third year of a bull market, which we're entering, is typically a little bit more of a choppy one. so it's just the banks so far. we have a lot more on tap. what's the expectation? >> well, i would argue that earnings growing or at least in the future quarters accelerating a little bit from this quarter's pace, and holding the multiple is probably the bold case that might seem like it is a little more prudent to bet on, opposed to expanding, you know, the s&p e above 22 times where we are now. unique aspect at this moment, though, fed already in ease mode, at least, you know, removing restrictions into an earnings recovery. that's one of the anomalies of many of this cycle that we're dealing with right now. it does seem like it's all sort of supporting and pushing in the right direction. again, i still think we have to have everything teste

but is this recent wave of optimism starting to get just a bit overdone mike santoli joins us from the new york stock exchange. welcome. good to see you. it has been a nice little run, a sprint really, for stocks lately can it hold? >> well, i do think it's, first of all, the correct question to start asking, the s&p up 25% from the lows and we've had another acceleration upside in the rally from the nasdaq 100, so the leaders are starting to look a little bit stretched relative to their trend and had this tight public embrace, reg re recently of the scenario that seemed to tip people in the direction of assuming that might be the likely path from here went from being a long shot case before, this market has fed off of persist the skepticism against that case, and persistent caution in positioning. everything i'm looking at, sentiment surveys, professional and individual positioning towards equities and the chat on the speculative move suggests that it's rising but maybe isn't that extreme this is normal behavior, however it looks very, very balanced in terms of the outlook from here i

if you look at the way things shaped up, when mike santoli brings up this idea of maybe what other banks are out there, who else could take them over, you remember that when there were these kind of takeovers, bear stearns by jpmorgan, wells fargo with wachovia/first union back in the day, there were oftentimes certain problems that arose once those bank operations were taken over, you didn't kind of know what was really wrong with the bank until after you had to deal with them post your takeover the lessons learned there, right now, are that you wait for the assets sale and try to pick up those pieces, without having to assume the liabilities associated with some of those banks. that might be one of the reasons why you're waiting or at least some of these possible other lenders who could be looking at assets for silicon valley bank to wait to see how the auction process plays out and see how the liquidation goes before they take these positions on. >> apart from all of the circumstantial differences, i'll ask you, dom, since you're right across from me here, was the fact that this bank

mike santoli, same to you. go rangers. election day is nearly upon us. some late shifts. but the polls do remain really close. our next guest says no outcome would surprise him at this point. "power lunch" will be right back. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ at state street, we know everyone's trying to get somewhere. ♪♪ take the next step toward your future, by investing in the s&p 500 with spy. getting there starts here. jen b asks, "how can i get fast download speeds by investing in the s&p 500 with spy. while out and about?” jen, we've engineered xfinity mobile with wifi speeds up to a gig, so you can download and do much more all at once. it's an idea that's quite attractive. or... another word... fashionable? i was gonna say- “popular! you're gonna be pop-uuuu-larrr!” can you do defying gravity?! yeah, get my harness. buy one line of unlimited, get one free for a year with xfinity mobile. and see wicked, only in theaters november 22nd. >>> welcome back to "power lunch," everybody. we're just one day away from election day as you surely no. polls indicate a very, very tight race in

i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner today.begins with a rate cut rocket launch to new records on wall street. investors globally embracing the federal reserve's half percent cut 24 hours ago as the right move for the right reasons, preserving a potential soft landing and stoking risk appetites. here's the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. cbs and p500 just off the highs. that surpasses its former peak

michael santoli now for "trading nation." mi mike >> cancelkelly, more on the trar fallout. abcs are tanking, knocked down double digits from recent highs. so does this mean they have more misery to come or maybe buying opportunity? miller, michael of graded investments are your "trading nation" team abc in the cross hairs of the china trade friction any of those look like they can work from here >> well, they all are going to be challenged right now because of this issue. i thought to myself, of the three, which would bounce back the best if we suddenly heard that donald trump announce he was going to hit this ceremonial opening tee shot along with president xi at the pga this week and of course, the market would bounce back and the one that i looked at was apple i mean, it's funny because it's seeing a golden cross. that's when a rising 50 day average, and i'm usually not a big fan of that indicator but a compelling one for apple the last three times, we've seen a golden cross, it's rallied over 500%, 110% and 125% each of the last three times and we just saw one late last

i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner.week after sitting hair latest all-time high. here's a look at scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. the s&p 500 getting a modest lift. about 60% of all stocks trading higher on the day. you can see it's up by about 0.4%. the nasdaq is pacing the upside to start the book, carried by tesla, a

jeremy brian, mike santoli, we appreciate it.ith the dow 200 points off the session lows. >>> beyond the bank. some key earnings moves we're watching today including eli lilly, shares up almost 14%. we'll speak with an analyst who raised their price target on the stock by $115. the stock is around 515 right now. >>> plus, it's been over a year since the $53 billion chips act was passed in the house and yet chip firms are still not seeing government funding we'll talk about the implications when "power lunch" returns. let innovation refunds help with your erc tax refund so you can improve your business however you see fit. rosie used part of her refund to build an outdoor patio. clink! dr. marshall used part of his refund to give his practice a facelift. emily used part of her refund to buy... i run a wax museum. let innovation refunds help you get started on your erc tax refund. stop waiting. go to innovationrefunds.com you really got the brows. >>> welcome back beyond the bank, some key names reporting results. three in particul

also something that has gone a long way and consolidating it seems, guys. >> all right, mike santoli, thanks >>> josh, want to get your thoughts >> i think that is a really great chart that michael put up. i know michael is a fan of animal spirits and they were talking about where is all the capital for these mini bubbles coming from? well, the faang stocks which is $6 trillion worth of market cap are flat for six months. so, you have money coming out of stocks that have stopped moving and that's what is fueling probably a lot of the activities and stories like bed, bath & beyond and when you talk about $6 trillion. i know we throw trillion dollar numbers around all the time, but this is a huge, huge pool of capital that could continue to leak out of the market cap stocks as they continue to trade sideways or even down and find the home in some of the 5 to $50 billion companies that seem to be the new leaders in this market i think there is a lot to that story and a trend that could continue for a long time it's not surprising that small caps to lead us out of a recession. happens alm

santoli, thank you so much. mike santoli reporting sill quon valley under scrutiny the past year.ech had to put out fire after fire from data breaches to controversial tweets and now there's a bigger headache exposure to saudi money. recode's kara swisher addressed this issue in an op-ed in the "new york times. who will teach silicon valley to be ethical kara swisher is editor at large at recode and a cnbc contributor and kara swisher is unhappy today. how are you? it's good to have you here >> good. >> i'm going to read two lines from your op-ed. >> i love hearing you read my writing. >> you bet it can't get any better than this "it feels like too many digital leaders have lost their minds. dot, dot, dot, dot "as one ethical quandary after another has hit its profoundly ill equipped executives their once pristine reputations have fallen like palm trees in a hurricane. explain, and who are you talking about specifically >> well, you know, all these companies that have faced one thing after another, whether it's google in china or google with the hack that they didn't disclose for

mike santoli reporting for us. >>> as investors dial back risk taking today, the ten-year yield has tumbled as much as 12 basis points, even dipping below 1.2%. i checked it was 1.18% about an hour ago what happens if the slide in yields continues joining us now is sanctuary chief investment officer, jeff where is the sanctuary in this market >> i think there is a sanctuary and to santoli's point, we are not in basic rhythms, we are not in normal times. the ten-year note is driving lower. it's important, tyler, to understand in 2020 the ten-year note was tethered to the 90 basis points to kick off 2021 we saw the ten-year note go from 1% up to 1.75% when all the inflation alarmists came out trying to get in front of the fed. what has fed chairman powell articulated? the fact they're not moving rates anytime soon you saw the ten-year note come back down in yield it's a very lonely view, ty. but the delta variant, that really stoked a lot of fears we're seeing equity sell-offs so it seems like, ty, what goes up may come down and 1.05 was the yield on the ten year that woe took off from back i

. >>> mike santoli to talk about what he's calling the -- maybe you should set this up for us.did they just say in you have a funny term for this market rally. some are calling it the bessent rally. you think it's the mullet rally. explain. >> they can coexist. mullet, the hairstyle, the business up front, party in the back and this is struck me over the last few weeks not really today as much but the last few weeks, at how the core of the market, the s&p 500, if you're an index investor, everything neat and tidy. the market has been extending the uptrend it's been in, rotating rationally around higher growth expectations. the minute it got overheated after the election a few days later it started to cool off in this measured fashion so it just continues to color between the lines and really not really do any missteps along the way. now, alongside that, you've had this burst of high risk high reward action in things like crypto, everything happening behind bitcoin in this realm, but crypto related equities, leveraged etfs, long etfs that amplify the upside, record inflows, reco

we begin with the markets, and mike santoli, that big milestone potentially for the s&p 500, obviously pushing against the ceiling, mike. >> we are, tyler. just hesitating a little bit, not too unusual when you get to a big widely watched row number index level. though the 4000 level which is first crossed in 2021 i think really just blasted off from their. but other thousand point thresholds in this index have created a bit of a u overshoot and then come back to test it. right now what's interesting to me and slightly ironically the reason that we have not crossed above 5000 is because a lot of them make a cap stocks that have gone us to this precipice are not really doing a whole lot today, so the s&p is outperforming, there's so much scrutiny over whether this rally has been too narrow. the average stock is just been going sideways after a great run last year. it hasn't really done anything wrong, just suspect the next pullback will be the big, one we're embracing positive economic news earnings season seems like it's good enough to ratify first quarter forecasts. things seem attack

on that note, let's bring in mike santoli., is the biggest obstacle to a strong back half just these sky-high expectations? >> yeah, kelly. i think at least when it comes to earnings forecasts, the expectations have been ratcheted pretty high. it's a pretty daunting hurdle, flo at least from the out. 9% second quarter, aggregate s&p earnings growth. that has not come down over the course of the past three months. it seems as if analysts got the memo that companies have been beating by 3 to 5 percentage points in aggregate per quarter, so they haven't actually cut to lower the bar. that's one thing. i think the treasury yield move is another that we have to be keeping our eye on, as the market seems to be doing, today, especially considering that this lift in treasury yields coming after some soft inflation numbers, and also economic data that's been a little bit deceleration mode, i would say. beyond that, though, the upper trend is quite strong. even the average stock is not down. i mean, i think you could definitely talk abo

be deliberate and be disciplined and you'll get through this. >> mike santoli, let me get you to reactr said you can't deny the fact that s&p 500 has tripled over the past ten years, up 60% over the past two years, and that would suggest that well maybe this party can't go on forever. at the same time, saying there will be a slow down in returns you could still make nice money at 7% a year as opposed to, you know, as opposed to 13%, 13% higher, obviously. >> sure. well, i mean 7% would absolutely be -- you would probably sign up for it right now given the starting point and, you know, i don't think goldman's an outlier here if you look at the standard math in terms of asset allocation entering today at a 1.3% initial dividend yield for the s&p 500 at 22 times forward earnings makes assumptions about there will be an economic cycle that interrupts the trajectory of earnings and you have to build in a cushion for absorbing some tougher times. vanguard maintains a ten-year projected asset return outlook and said as of june of this year, you know, 3 to 5% for u.s. equities over the next te

let's bring our panel back at mark santoli, and rick, a knee-jerk reaction here is what do you say >> knee-jerk is a lot of volatility, but as the dust settles, we're right around unchanged meaning we were right about where we started 339, 340 in the ten-year and the two-year note yields are a smidge higher and they dropped aggressively to two year before they came all the way back and that made sense. many believe, including myself that the shorter maturities might be a little ahead of the game considering that we have to do this on a meeting to meeting basis and that's why things like three-month bills compared to two-year note yields are so interesting to watch the issue i see is clear is that the fed has an inflation gauge and it's up 4.9% and everybody watching has a different form of inflation gauge they prefer. it's called the aaa national average gas price which today is $5.01. there in lies the problem and tyler talked about trying to get the reputation back and i can give you five numbers why it will be difficult, 18.9% and export prices at an all-time record and down 20% in

from the new york stock exchange, mike santoli looking at the overshoot phase of the bull market. bob pisani is tracking what's going on in the growth bob, you're up first what we have noticed for the session is volatility has been elevated even with markets at record highs and gaining steam as markets have been fading. >> yeah, i want to put up the dow intra day if we can. the open was amazing 4 to 1 advancing to declining stocks we had almost 400 stocks at new week highs then at 10:30, it all faded. volume picked up on the etfs, the big etfs that i watch, the vix moved to the upside. we went back and forth about the possible causes. there were some headlines out, reports about a turkish military build-up on the syrian border. that would affect the mideast and the kurds. that might have been a factor. sometimes you get these geopolitical issues. but for sure, we saw the markets sort of losing steam at 10:30, particularly around bids getting canceled that's not where people come in and actively sell. it's where people who were buying normally stopped the bids and the market drifts

starts right now >>> you heard it we have a big hour a wild day of trading to start the week mike santoli has more. mike >> morgan, a bit of erratic action this morning. we had a bit of a quick sell-off, but right now this is a long-term view, which is relatively elevated. we're above 20 times forward earnings that goes back to about 2000, 2001 one of the way the people rationalize these things one of them is bond yields are very low if you looked at p.e. ratios, compared to treasury yields. goldman sachs says we're not even down to the overvalued levels we saw back in the '90s, so maybe this is okay. it doesn't necessarily mean that long-term returns will be all that great just because compared to bond yields, which is versus low, things will be fine the kinds of companies that are big in the s&p 500 are phenomenally dominant and profitable. so maybe these valuations are more sustainable >> yeah, mike, it is interesting. we've had a couple notes out, goldman comes to mind to where we're seeing frost in the market right now. when you talk about valuations, i realize we're going to talk ab

. >> and let's begin with the market and what the fed does and says from here mike santoli is joining us >> and i think first thing i'd observe is that interest rates by the feds are stable for ten months, i think that you'd have to say the policy setting is in a pretty good spot when you've had the economy growing and inflation mostly continued to go down so to me that is the basis for whatever win discuss here. but what the fed does next, it is clear that there is an orientation toward trying to get in some easing action. might not be multiple cuts but the gesture of easing i think that is out there. and they are really looking to see if the inflation numbers can cool enough to open that window wide enough for them to get perhaps that easing in but they have shown that they will be patient along the way to making that call >> and you have a fun take on this is this -- i think it is a great point. an echo of 2015 but in reverse back then, they were so desperate 20to do the first hike and now they are desperate to do the first cut. >> i think that is right i've been talking about this

joining is our guest along with mike santoli. this is an interesting development and i feel terrible because we keep saying it's interesting, but it seems like it's the same thing over and over that any time there's a pullback of whatsoever, it seems to be bought, not in an enthusiastic way, but enough to keep the markets going higher and higher. mike, we'll start with you. it has. changed, it seems like over the course of the last year. >> not much. it's nearly 10% if you look at the intraday high and low. it's an opportunity for traders and investors to say what's changed? has there been a 10% swing in fundamentals? seemingly not. it's been broader and steeper. it came alongside, i would say over the last couple of days, just this pileup of data points and observations that had the bond market really going far down the path this is a dovish scenario. whether we really want that or not, whether we really want the economic conditions that would bring that about, totally unclear. as powell waits to speak, i think today is a little

mike santoli on why this appears to be an orderly sell-off. fueling fears of a slower economy that's keeping consumers on edge. >> 176 points, some of the main caught up in this selloff are leading this rebound facebook up 1%, amazon is also higher on a positive note from sntrust analysts, their team says the pullback makes its valuation more compelling and that stock is up more than 2%. it's worth noting, though, since the start of the earnings season in mid october, earnings estimates for the fourth quarter have come down 3%. analysts still expecting growth is just slowing profit growth for the upcoming quarters. still a number of worries, though tech slowdown, deceleration in growth, following that report. raw material costs rising, stronger dollar and higher rates, particularly as they relate to the housing market home builders are rallying today but uncertainty in the housing market has translated to this market ishares home construction down about 18% in the past six months and on the trade front, u.s. trade representative leitheizer acc

i'm michael santoli. the biotech etf tracking for the best quarter since 2013. is this the beginning of an even bigger breakout or maybe a chance to lighten up joined by craig johnson and john, point view wealth management craig, obviously, this group accelerated in here. it's often a kind of gauge of risk appetites by investors and traders. is this the kind of rally that can be trusted >> mike, i think it is and a lot of investors are trying to play catch-up at this point in time the chart of the ibb, you can see a classic bottoming set-up here this close suggests we're going back to the old highs. we still see decent u side hepse to go. high as 13% higher so we continue to like the ibb one of the names that looks pretty good to us is regeneron a good risk and reward on that, mike >> is biotech looking attractive and the sector fund the way to play it? >> i think the health care sector, the long-term fundamentals are really strong, right? you have an aging growing global population to put a lot of utilization in general and biotech clearly the fastest growing s

out some of these insane stats. 323 of the s&p small cap 600 are up more than 25% this year mike santoli and you've got 126 of those names up more than 50% and that is in less than six weeks. mike, what is behind this big money surge in the small cap stocks >> the small caps bring together a lot of the themes driving this market they do better when we have a cyclical upturn. they tend to be more geared to the economy but also, just risk appetites and liquidity, driving a lot of these things. russell 2000 against the s&p 500 on a one year basis, they were tracking okay for a while and then you see right around the election, the small cap just really took off and it's now extremely overbought on technical readings and things like that. i think underexamined piece of this look at the top holdings of the russell 2000 small cap right now. yes, half this index is financials and industrials and health care but at the very top here, a $33 billion fuel company that's gone to the moon. novavax, a vaccine play. penn national and caesar's sports betting plays right now so very much the trendy buzzy

should we let santoli another question they're gone another arrow in the quiver. >> we called this goldilocks scenario it's actually baby bear's. goldly lock's stole it the one in the middle. >> the other one said why did she steal from the momma bear? why did she steal from the baby bear whose was the porj that she would find most satisfying we'll take with the inflation report diving where food and ingredient costs than any other than famed chef marcus samuelsson his support for black-owned businesses and more. "power lunch" will be right back i was told my small business wouldn't qualify for an erc tax refund. you should get a second opinion from innovation refunds at no upfront cost. sometimes you need a second opinion. [coughs] good to go. yeah, i think i'll get a second opinion. all these walls gotta go! ah ah ah! i'd love a second opinion. no. i'm going to get a second opinion. with innovation refunds, there's no upfront cost to find out. so why not check like i did for my small business? take the first step to see if your small business qualifies for the erc. ♪ there are currently mor

joining us to kick things off, jason pride at glen meade and cnbc's mike santoli as well. energy, oil and gas, they're moving oil itself moving. doesn't appear yet that there's a macro impetus on the market. >> no, not evident right now, and probably in part that's because of the absolute levels that we're coming off of here. big gains, we've been in 73. so until it imposes itself in terms of getting out of this ban, i don't think it's a macro driver we do have a market othat's apprehensive october 7th anniversary of the hamas attacks on israel, i think that's on people's minds as well as everything stacked up between here and the election, and we're in the anticipation mode all of that means we're going to wait and see perhaps nervously against that, you have nvidia popping. remember that old story? that's supporting the old market as is the general sense of the fed easing into what should be an earnings upswing, which should create a bit of a buffer ahead of anything we might be worrying about. >> jason, there are energy investors who would say a couple of dollars of cru

. >> covering the market action, mike santoli, rick santelli. michael, we start with you, please >> bill, thanks a lot. let's tell you where we came from here before this shakeout in the s&p 500 right from a record high that was carried by a relatively narrow group of stocks you see here, look, nothing has altered the trend here it is solidly higher we had kind of stretched right up to the very upper end of this sort of uptrending rally channel. at the lows this morning, we basically just undid the month to date gains in the s&p, went back to about where we were right at the end of june kind of probed lower and then actually regrouped from there and found some footing take a look, also, at two opposite ends of the spectrum. the nasdaq 100, which is the very largest growth stock and then small cap, russell 2000 one really benefits from an accelerating higher treasury yield type environment, that would be the russell 2000. they basically have come to a similar spot here along very different paths. massive ramp to start with the reopening enthusias

i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner. of the tape. another weak tesla quarter, from alphabet, taking its on the staying power, tax the nasdaq done more than 3% for the worst da

so i don't think you can just go after twitter here. >> let's be clear, mike santoli, nobody is goinger twitter. i'm just using twitter because it was brought up. i'm saying there's a reason companies -- wall street and public companies put out research and earnings pre or post market. just wondering if you think the s.e.c. might evolve in its thinking, that maybe they will nudge you you should wait until 4:01 or pre9:30. >> unless thats with some kind of allegation of manipulation, there's really no role for the s.e.c. to decide when it exercises its ability to give its opinion about something. a lot of questions are was this somehow market manipulation? if he thought this tweet could knock down the value of shares. that also is a very, very high standard to meet. it didn't manipulation if you just express a view on a company. >> and to be clear, guys, melissa you know this, it's not about left or icahn. if you remember a couple months ago, i think it was the ftc put out a tweet about somebody losing a court case, 1:30 or something. and i got on them. i said what are they doing putti

mike santoli. >> stocks were trying to gain some of last week's losses. they want to see between now and then, let's ask meghan s shue. the points for a soft landing can still be made. it's almost as if the broader public is coming around to the brighter idea that that, we might be okay? >> i think, kelly, all of the points you're making are really important and e in the period of mixed economic data, which depending how you want to look at it, you can take any of the mixed economic data and find something that can anchor you to your prior position. i think the law bore market report is a perfect example of that. but we're trying to keep our eyes wide open to everything we see. the consumer is definitely struggling in serm. consumers are starting to pull back. it's something to watch. the labor market data has been something to watch. we're also very aware that some of the economic data points we're looking at are not at the leading caters. they start to deteriorate after a recession. when we look at it in the totality of the economic data, we still see a

the question really that investors are asking is how far can the market bend before breaking mike santolias more at the nyse mike >> let's define what the borderline is between bending and breaking probably some near the recent lows we are in the zone right here. s&p 500 right around 4100 the very low end of that range overnight futures down that level and interesting an unthe down 15% level from the all-time high and argument if you have faith that's a support zone. we had that low that's lower than right now a week ago thursday and crude oil is 30 bucks since then clearly some kind of callouss built up in the market sentiment is negative but perhaps not washed out levels. we bottomed in the 18 times forward earnings area. just a bit above that. cheaper than it's been in a couple years and the big wild kas card bank stocks are hit day after day and the funding stresses evident. it's nothing that looks like it's systemically acute but the kind of thing to keep potential buyers on the heels opposed to diving in. >> how does that compare with prior market corrections >> i would say this rem

mike santoli >>> all right.d let's bring in cnbc contributor tom lee who is a co-founder and head of research at fundstrat and profess ragu, governor of the reserve bank of india, professor of univcollege university school of business. i want to start with you, incredible just to see how quickly the market narrative has changed from expecting a rate cut in june to some economists saying not at all this year. you've been in the seat that powell is in, different country, india, but how you think he navigates this complicated scenario we're in, hotter economy with the inflation remaining much higher than expected and at the same time rates also staying higher, the impact that could have on consumers? >> yes i mean clearly we've had three strong readings of inflation, one you can dismiss, the january one, but the next two basically suggest inflation is not coming down in fact it's going up. if you looked at the mueasure te fed has looked at the super corps measure of inflation taking out housing it's gone up 8.2% ra