mike santoli joins us here at post 9, along with jon fortt and kayla tausche, to talk about the market impact. the president of the united states this morning commenting about the overall stock market. >> yes. >> and how much people who bought in since the election have been rewarded. your thoughts. >> it is true. i mean, there's no way to get around the timing of it all, but i've been sort of saying a lot had to come together, both with regard to policy and policy hopes and outside of that for the market to do what it's done since the election, as many people have commented. ah all of the leading indicators turning up, earnings pointed in the right direction and bond yields globally going up. all this fed into an idea that things were getting better. and then you had the overlay of there will be business-friendly policy coming out. and i think it did keep investors focused on this story line, that yes, things are getting better now, but maybe we

i want to talk to you about bank loss provisions but tie this into the markets with mike santoli. mike, there had been technicians looking at bkx against the s&p, bkx against the ndx and saying it was time to revert a little bit. did we witness a decent test this morning >> it seems like it. i mean it's been pretty stretched for a while. it seemed yesterday there was a little bit of buckling in there when you had the big nasdaq 100 type names back off a little bit. one lesson from the actions this morning is that the average stock has been in a kind of correction mode for weeks now, equal weighted s&p down 8% coming into today, down another 1% today you've had a lot of kind of backfilling under the surface of the indexes for a while and you needed it all to stay weak, including the names for the whole market to break. i think it's very technical and tactical and very much about positioning and squeezes and where people are roucrowds and where are they not you can dial back to and say this is the third or fourth 5% pullback from a high that went only that far since about the beginn

jon, back to you >> thank you for more, gene munster, and mike santoli. welcome.ene, i'm not sure how much we should focus again on reports often based on rumor, especially since apple is no longer going to give us unit sales of iphone. the stock is not going to move on actual average selling prices, it will move on overall ref are -- revenue and strategic services >> what you're also seeing in the pull back is that there's a trust factor we have to have with apple with the new guidance methodology, not giving units out as you talk about. analysts in this case aren't going to be able to tune what we hear from supply chain directly to an iphone number. i think it is the right thing. i want to stress that. this is a great use case, what we see today about shifting methodology. if they deliver and 5% revenue growth they talked about, if they deliver that, that will be reassuring to investors not to worry about fire drills. i want to stress the fire drill theme. in josh's piece he talked about two other suppliers that account for about half the lasers used for augment

let's bring in brian jacobson, senior investment strategist and wells fargo and mike santoli back on. you see amd, chipotle, not as strong as the industrial stal warts we got yesterday. >> i agree with that it's definitely providing an excuse to take profits i do think this earning season has been fighting the general sell on the news effect we often see with earning season. i mentioned yesterday at this point in the last earning season, which was also a good one, stocks topped out for the season two weeks into the earning seasons july 27th, i think the market just kind of says, okay, we got it. we're a pretty good run rate of earnings growth. we price that in, already have priced it in i wouldn't necessarily draw too much from today's action about anything so nasty in the earnings report as much as it was an excuse after a really good streak on the upside to pull back a little bit also big tech stocks are not running to the rescue of the broad market they are also, in fact, down more. >> i was going to say, intel, microsoft, amazon and alphabet all report on thursday and all are dow

/china back with us is our mike santoli who has been watching the interday price action. a bit of a bid there and then that faded. >> we did. we're settling into the midday stall. hanging around the levels everyone has been fixated on with the s&p below where we were 12 days ago. i do think it will be the game of, you know, do you see a real rush of buying interests or people want to see how it closes they say if it closes above that 2710 we've been watching you have to say the market has done enough in the short term right now it really should start responding to being very oversold and good seasonal force that is start to kick in right around this time of year maybe that's complicated by the election maybe it's complicated by the kind of abundance of geopolitical stuff i do think that's where we're at right now. rally soon or else we have to start asking what else the market is trying to tell us. >> in the meantime you look at the s&p. every single sector is lower today. i realize there's a bit on gold. it doesn't seem like the flight to safety trade is really -- >> you

. >> mike santoli's latest column is looking at the market's most indispensable all-purpose stock and the one you're thinking of. mike >> we say it's more recently become that, microsoft 20 years ago you could say it was exactly that right now the market is trading microsoft as checking off all the boxes of what is most preferred by investors today consider all the categories that it leads in, right people love tech but they love software even more they like large caps, mega caps better long-term secular stories like cloud very sturdy free cash flow generation, all these things the market is valuing more highly every day, microsoft embodies. if you look at the etfs, it qualifies as momentum, quality, low volatility, mega cap growth and esg, which i wouldn't underestimate is as well as dividend growth and buyback. the problem is, if it's going to become a problem, is the valuation. it's at an 18-year high with the p/e multiple that premium has expanded to quite a degree right now arguably it's overowned by hedge funds and all those etfs there's also an element of potentially hiding bec

here with more on the struggle is mike santoli, senior markets commentator.se companies cut across so many sectors. enterprise, retail, tech, social media. what's the common thread for why they're trading like this? >> this hasn't been a market that has wanted to reward the underdog and the upstart. if you look at the kinds of stocks that perform through last year, fang and the other kind of big dominant platform stocks, they're the ones that are the incumbents that are going to swallow up the upstarts. if you look at all those companies that you mentioned, whether it's fitbit, etsy, gopro, twitter, almost from day one, the story on wall street became who is going to eat them? who is going to edge them out? can they basically stay as a stand-alone competitor to apple, amazon, and the rest? i think that's one of the dynamics. small cap growth companies in general, by the way, have had a struggle. they're down 20% as a group. russell 2,000 growth since june. >> the problem is we don't get very many large cap ipo's. we got facebook. we got linkedin in recent yea

mike santoli, just looking at the markets, fresh highs again today.an 25 points from 29,000 >> yeah. obviously the high priced stocks in the dow are doing their work right now. i'm more focused on is 3275 for the s&p -- i mean it is pretty much in the zone for year end targets. so i think that there is a bit of an -- you can seeing it on the fundamental analyst side to chase the market, decide are we raising price targets or let it settle out from here there is an undertow of profit taking day to day it has not been as strong as the top line indexes but that is one of the things that doesn't matter until it matters. >> keep us smart what should investors think or not think about the dow milestones >> the dow, 1,000 points is a minor move by the way, 100 point move in the dow right now is less than the average daily move through history we've had. so if you talk about 100 points, it is just not what it used to be on a daily basis. 30 might be interesting as an opportunity to assess three times that 10,000 landmark from 2000 >> and of course it is all a

senior markets commentator mike santoli joins us to break this down whether the ndx or the transportsutperforming because airlines are rallying very strongly, it does still seem like it is this reopening narrative that is largely driving the market moves more broadly as we shrug off covid and civil unrest from a market standpoint and china and other issues that have been hanging in the balance? >> for sure. the nasdaq 100 gets the headlines because it didn't go down as much in the crash and those big tech stocks held up better the last couple weeks and mostly more pronounced this week has been just people feeling as if they don't have enough investment exposure to the reopening theme. yes, travel, consumer, a lot of the beaten down financials and retail stock is, it's still the theme. i think the overall levels of the market might be giving some traders pause because this market has begun to run pretty hot, a strong sprint we've had over the last 50 days, up to some important levels. right now i think it's quietly digesting things at the moment what is interesting, though, is a couple

we have mike santoli on set here this morning as well to break down this action and the fact that weing this increased sell-off right now >> and i think it was an across the board, let's step back from this market, because this is not a process that we can now handicap and game out. we don't know what this means when the president sort of says, all companies have to look for alternatives to building in china. so that's, to me, the reflex reaction is a quick risk off twitch in stocks and bonds you have ten-year treasury yields back below 155. the lows -- the recent lows have been right in that zone for this week and i think that's something that basically says that the market is trying to call in the bats and say, we just don't know now, that all being said, the s&p has been kind of knocking around in a jumpy way within this range for weeks now so 2822 or 2820 for the s&p has been the recent lows the highs have been 4% or so up from here. so it's obviously an anxious situation, but much more about, you really don't know what to make of this than it is trying to price in some specific

any moment now we could see lyft begin to trade at the nasdaq as we look ahead to that, mike santoli,etf symbol is up more than 30% so far year to date how much does that play into the reception a stock like lyft is getting? >> it shows you that professional investors are very interested in growth, in earlier stage growth that's been the privilege type of stock working this year, we're not sure of broader economic situation now i think that feeds into it it's not the whole story i think growth managers -- >> by the way, if people at the nasdaq are there, probably less than a minute away indicative price $87 a share one minute away i am told now. almost 6 million paired shares of lyft. the ipo pipeline expected to open up for 2019, it is expected to be a record year. 234 companies going public in 2019 for a record $700 billion in valuation very important marker for the 2019 ipo pipeline happening in moments from now we look at 87 bucks a share. >> and different exchanges do it different ways we see jay as a popular man with everybody around his desk, waiting to see how this will go. >>

john, see you in about 15. >> any show with mike santoli is a good show. >>> small businesses embracing the if you can't beat them, join them model when it comes to amazon kate is in newark with the story. kate >> that's right. it can be tough for small business owners to compete with amazon, but when the two pair up together, it can be a win for both parties in fact, amazon says that more than half of the items it sells online come from small retailers like j.r. william, which ships luxury goods out of this newark warehouse to be fulfilled by amazon fulfillment by amazon lets businesses have access to prime two-day shipping, but they have to preship to amazon and let the company cover customer service and packaging and shipment the owner of j.r. william says he has little contact with his customers, and he also faces lower rankings on the site if he chooses to fulfill items on his own. >> if you're listing fulfill by merchant on amazon, the chances of you becoming a hot seller is slim to none >> even though they do take a big cut, steve says it can be wel

carl quintanilla with kayla tausche at post 9, and mark santoli.ald trump making two key cabinet nominations they morning. let's get right to our john harwood outside trump tower with all the details. john? >> reporter: carl, these are two of the big ones. steve mnunchin has been selected by donald trump to be his nominee for secretary of the treasury. he, of course, is a former goldman sachs partner who was the fund-raising chief for donald trump's campaign. also, wilbur ross, who is going to be the commerce secretary, billionaire investor, well known to viewers of cnbc, neighborhood of donald trump's in florida where he has his marioa lago estate 37 and he moderated the trump economic message in a few ways. instead of talking about outright scrapping dodd/frank, as donald trump did during the campaign, steve mnunchin talked about modifying parts of the law that discourage lending. that's one signal. secondly, donald trump said during the campaign his goal was 4% economic growth. when steve mnunchin was asked what was a realistic target, he said 3

back to 3061 mark santoli is with us on a day, mike, where not a whole lot working, whether it's tariffs risks certainly the covid number in this case out of florida are raising concerns about whether policies need to change statewide. >> for sure, carl. i do think that a lot of these issues the market has been grappling with them below the surface far while. this is a day when, you know, the elite five or six stocks of the nasdaq are not rescuing the overall market that has obscured with the equal weighted s&p for a month has gone nowhere and had a hard time gaining traction as we reassess the strength and speed of any reopening type trade maybe we have to backslide from there. i think we all know the set of issues out there the question has been, the market's ability to look through them or shrug them off thanks to strong market credits or general reserved sentiment among equity investors. both those things are still in place but they're not incrementally in favor of stocks today versus where they were a couple weeks ago i do think in that stuck place the s&p has been for a couple week

. >> welcome to 2017 >> that's pretty scary in and of itself clearly, we don't know, mike santoli joinsat the desk, as well we have to hear more reporting out of the courtroom we're starting to get some of that and, i guess, you have to wonder how long a period of uncertainty will be. these are not the kinds of things that are going to necessarily resolve themselves in a day or two in terms of what is certainly an intensifying investigation of russian collusion in the u.s. election >> and going into a weekend. >> yes, you are. >> so you're not going to have the usual on-duty performers that you might expect, so that's going to add to how much will you find out and how much won't you find out >> as art has been suggesting, this air pocket opened up, it's not the market's way of saying it's methodically caming out exactly how this is going to go and place specific probabilities on some kind of, you know, jeopardy to the president or anything like that it's a market that was kind of out on a perch after a very unusual rally yesterday with the dow up more than 300 points, the average stock

want to bring in mike santoli. we've been talking about the bank stocks and financial services in general holding up just fine today during this testimony and it's been doing well overall what do you expect the impact there to be? >> i would say holding up fine today, although if you look at valuations of the very large bank stocks the ones represented there by their ceos they are trading at pretty steep discounts relative to where they used to trade. the takeaway is this is the fact that these hearings are happening these institutions are still playing defense and any kind of premium that was going to be baked in by investors for a deregulation benefit, longer term, seems like it is -- has basically been zapped out of the stocks i don't think the stakes are particularly high for their businesses right now with what's going on today, but it does reflect the broader environment, part of which i think is that playing defense means not participating as aggressively in a credit boom in this country and arguably people

for more, we're joined by michael graham and mike santoli gentlemen, good morning.hael, start with you. how would you characterize the sell of faang stocks, do you think looking at the bounce we have a bottom in terms of valuations >> it is hard to say if we have a bottom in. any time you have stocks that performed so well for such a long period of time, you're boun bound to go through periods of collection i feel as we look ahead, fundamental outlook is solid all of these stocks are going after large markets that are still in early to mid stages of shifting online. i do feel there's a good fundamental outlook for several years. in the short term, i think it is important how january plays out. you sort of need markets to get back to bullish risk taking mentality. so i think the first few weeks in january will be fragile for the group. hopefully we can see it recover. >> mike, we have seen dramatic moves lower in big cap tech names. when you put them in perspective in terms of the year with the kmep exception of facebook, a lot of them, amazon, microsoft, still have

mike santoli is back with us there is a lot to watch.rtant >> the dollar that's tha keeps rallying up .75% right now we got slightly soft economic data this morning, not usually seminole numbers but you got slightly softer numbers and yields don't come down they're kind of sitting up there. that's the story we've been in for a while. there's not that fail safe effect of when the economy looks like it may be starting to slow slightly, yields rally, bonds rally and yields go down if you had to isolate that we've been selling these weak rallies. open strong. sell throughout the day. traders have not been penalized for sitting it out and not putting money at risk, even when the earnings are good and that pattern is there good illustration today that apple is up, it's an anti-bellwether sometimes because it does its own thing. it took its pain before, went down below 10% now it's rallying. it doesn't get a big lift. i think we're not getting any help from the secondary sectors. >> with may day, volume not our friend. >> most of the world is c

with us now for more, mike and mike michael nathanson, and senior markets commentator mike santoli.ood morning, guys michael nathanson, first, what to look out for with advertising driven names we have been talking so much about china, but these names have little china exposure is it all up side or are there potential points of concern? >> i think this is a proxy for global growth ex-china europe is a big component of digital advertising. the uk is a big component. what i am worrying about is slow down in uk retail sales that filters down to online advertising. germany, italy, france what i am picking up is that outside the u.s., some of the more stable western european markets may have slowed down as fourth quarter played out. so it is not a china issue, it is western european markets, consumer spending is slowing. >> i am surprised you're not bullish on facebook, given how far it has been in recent months >> we downgraded facebook over the summer we looked at it, said facebook is a terrible setup where you have revenues decel rating 25, 26%, expenses up to 53%. operating profits,

well off session highs mike santoli is looking at some of the levels we're watching dow session high was plus 442. >> yeah. >> now some 200. >> above 500 in premarket. it was a bit of emotional response context matters. if we didn't have the news about u.s., china trade, i think we would have come into the week saying market was up 5%, that's a great snap back rally, maybe we're overbought, maybe time for a rest that's what we're i think sorting out is how defensive were people going into the weekend after a 5% run in the s&p. also the conclusion it doesn't change the overall picture, removes the potential immediate negative but leaves you with a sense of what are the credit markets telling us, how will growth shape up next year. >> cramer's point, it opens the door for potential bullish headlines. >> right. >> china agrees to order x number of excavators from caterpillar. >> i agree with that the 90 day would seem to work more to the advantage of the u.s. being able to say, we'll slap the tariffs on in 90 days i think it will be a lot of back and forth on that. i think it diminishes

mike volpi, mike santoli >>> twitter is banning conspiracy theorist, radio host ntvey.f es after weeks"squawk alley" will be right back n speak to the future. n speak to the future. ♪ ♪ i'm going to be your substitute teacher. don't assume the substitute teacher has nothing to offer... same goes for a neighborhood. don't forget that friendships last longer than any broadway run. mr. president. (laughing) don't settle for your first draft. or your 10th draft. ♪ ♪ you get to create the room where it happens. ♪ ♪ just don't think you have to do it alone. ♪ ♪ the powerful backing of american express. don't live life without it. >> stocks are mixed to finish the week the banking sector getting attention, worst performing sector, down about 1%. shares of deutsche bank saying one of china's largest conglomerates exiting its stake after receiving growing pressure from beijing government officials. in addition to dropping 7.6% in deutsche bank, they're expected to unload the vast majority of overseas investments currently valued more than $10 billion another bank in focus, denmark's largest len

thank you for that, mike santoli. >>> mcdonald's, big story.asterbrook is out after violating company policy over consensual relationship with an employee kay rogers has more and who is set to take over. >> that's right. mcdonald's announced that steve easterbrook was out effective immediately after demonstrating poor judgment after a consensual relationship with an employee. easterbrook is off the company's board of directors the new ceo has overseen business and strategy, and working closely with franchisees on initiatives like fresh beef, experience of future upgrades playing a role in the company's turnaround he was hired as a mentor in an email to employees now, he did get push back in regard to speed of the tech upgrades and roll out at mcdonald's as it has undergone changes. he said that he was a natural successor to easterbrook before this unfolded. but he chases a challenging environment in the food space. mcdonald's had the first miss on earnings in two years. he has to continue to build on technology momentum and delivery business as

bring in the senior portfolio manager over at wells fargo asset management joining us onset, mike santoliot a busy day on ipos as the bloom energy comes to market ex-boeing, we are not far from unchanged. >> we are doing pretty well. there are early trends starting to emerge in earnings. number one, obviously some are getting caught in the cross hairs of tariffs we saw that with gm and are hearing it with whirlpool, kimberly clark, higher costs, higher dollar is generally an issue. number two, some have pricing power and some don't if you don't have pricing power, you're going to have lower margins. your stock will get hit. gm is the issue there. others like avery and dennison, they had highest costs but are able to pass them on pricing power really matters that's number two about boeing not all guidance is created equal. we have had companies raise guidance northrop raised it, they're not. at&t, generally not. and boeing, generally not. the problem here is guidance has to be a little better than the street's expects overall if it's not, off little problem. full-year guidance for boeing r

often more kind of a place to pause. >> all right mike santoli, thank you very much and just watching these markets, we're going to have a lot more on today's rally coming up the dow at up 890 plus points at this hour. walmart, the only stock negative there. boeing and raytheon leading the dow. s&p up 2.7%. nasdaq up nearly 2, near session highs on allf os 'lbeight back. a grandfather o. a newlywed... a guy who just got into college... that's why behind these masks, johnson & johnson scientists are working to accelerate development of a covid-19 vaccine, drawing on decades of experience responding to public health emergencies like ebola and hiv. for the life behind every mask, the clock never stops and neither do we. ever something's gone mogotten into the office.m, i hear you. feels like there's no barriers between departments now. do you think everyone appreciates it? i do. huh... forgot my glasses. serivcenow. the smarter way to workflow. >>> protesters are in the streets for an 11th day of demonstrations which have taken place in 50 states and several countries around the world jo

. ♪ ♪ >>> good thursday morning, happ new year jon fortt with morgan brennan and mike santoli live at new york stock exchange. carl has the morning off it is the first trading day of the month and the year stocks are rallying to kickoff 2020 fresh record highs for all major indexes. bob pisani is with us to breakdown what could push the markets higher. >> what a different january 2nd makes. remember this time last year, a year, what a difference. january 1st, last year, look what's going on, the market was pricing in earnings recession. remember that phrase stocks were cheap. fast forward a year. the opposite is happening. the recession didn't happen, earnings recession didn't happen, the economy is strong, stocks have gotten on the expensive side so the issue is whether we can finally return to earnings growth after an essentially flat year in 2019 most strategists are expecting mid single digits earnings growth which would take pressure off the higher multiple the market has now early reports from companies reporting the end of november are mixed with big names like fedex, nike, mic

. >> all right bring in cnbc senior markets commentator mike santoli for his take on what the marketdoing. >> jon, i guess you have to agree with larry that the market is adjusting, it is just that the adjustment is sometimes fitful we are with the s&p 500 basically where we were nine months ago, right at the beginning of january we crossed this line we're at now a few different times. as a matter of fact, look back to january 12th, larry fink said something similar about the economy looks great, global growth, and the s&p was 2786 almost where we are now. i think the push, pull, every time the focus is on good corporate performance as it is today, the market can get a lift also, we are stretched to the down side, couple of rally attempts the last couple of days have been kind of halfway. today looks like a fuller appreciation of how oversold the market was we'll get back into the zone where we maybe have a greater test in terms of real buying interest once we get out of the oversold condition >> 2790 here, mike on monday on squawk you were talking about friday and the bounce you sai

mike santoli is back every trade related headline, movement. >> gets at least a bit of a flutter throughket you know, i think you could come into this week and say there was nothing particularly dramatic priced into the market, but i do think there was enough suspense whether you get the next round of tariffs forestalled, and absence of other things going on brexit did not have a good effect on the market treasury pulling back. that's the formula for the market under pressure. to bring us up to date, s&p's low last week was 2066 a half percent down from now it pretty much defines being in this sideways slop that is roughly like we have been in in august we've now lost the friday post jobs report pop, but that's all you can say. it is not as if there was a dramatic move that shows inflection a lot of people point to the fact that reversal last thursday morning looks like it was potentially important just because you had the crescendo of negative economic sentiment that built up, then released. >> i thought that was reaction to soft survey data then discounted >> yes, but that was midday t

we are joined by mike santoly, and is it the new content or s risk?ll, it is a catchup with netflix against other media stocks. you ask how they have to catch up, because the stock is up 70%, and up 130% last year, but most of the gains last year were in the first quarter, and only up 10% in the last 12 month, and also, it usually has a huge january pop, and you got the reverse this year, and that all being said, that is the mechanics of it, and i think that it was underowned and overshorted on the hedge fund positioning, so some of it is fu fueling the catchup move. >> but the biggest drop was in april after the earnings, and subscriber growth came in weaker than expected and that is biggest drop since october 14th, when the subscriber growth is expected. can that be the culprit? >> well, not much has been resolved and it is about the pacing of the international subscriber growth, and the en ptration of the next couple of years. everybody has brought down the numbers on, that and nobody is lifting the revenue, and the earnings estimates, but it is ab

at bankofthewest.com/ev >>> market takes a leg lower midday dow down 350 mike santoli back at post 9bob pisani what do you think is at play here, guys is it yield curve at work? >> i think yield curve is getting the most attention yield curve says we're focusing on slow growth story, numbers out of the rest of the globe haven't been great, also catching the stock market in a certain field position where we were kind of extended. did we use up any 3 month rally in stocks. >> what happened here, we got mugged by the slower global growth story, that's what happened remember the narrative here, the bull narrative the fed and all of the central banks have our backs that's going to be the biggest help the problem is we have the most dovish fed we could get on wednesday. eeshl the dovish fed is priced in what else are going to go away that was another narrative important. the president said maybe the tariffs will not go away that's a problem then we had the chinese are going to stimulate their way out of their slow down and the your pi -- europeans that's a problem the numbers are not going

more on black rock's changes here in human and algo rhythmic trading, our leslie picker and mike santolyn us. first of all, leslie, what are these changes and what do they mean is this. >> they mean, sarah, that stock picking is mard to do. few managers have been able to beat the market in recent years. yet, their fees remain steep. as a result, investors have been fleeing these actively manage portfolios in favor of index funds which has helped black rock become the biggest asset manager in the world with its ishares unit. they have a unit with almost $300 billion that has been doing stock picking and struggling. yesterday, they announced sweeping changes to that business that diminished the role of traditional stock picking in favor of technology. they plan to invest in technology and data science and fuse that with traditional investing methods and in doing so, they will be cutting their fees and letting go of some portfolio managers. it will save clients about $30 million annually. that's money coming out of black rock's pockets. most analysts don't seem too concerned. they point to

it is santoli friday a u.s.ike killing an iranian military leader in baghdad causing oil prices to spike this morning stocks dropping. eamon javers has the latest on that from washington >> reporter: good morning, jon now getting red siran and aroun wormd. the supreme leaders saying harsh vengeance awaits criminals behind the killing of qassem soleimani, that was outside the baghdad airport. in france, president macron says he discussed the situation with russian president vladimir putin and state department in washington, jon, saying that secretary of state mike pompeo is speaking with a number of world leaders this morning, briefing them on the situation, including a statement suggesting he has been speaking with high ranking pakistani military officials. for his part, the president of the united states offered his explanation for justification for the attack on twitter, also kept a relatively muted presence on twitter you see his statement, explaining that qassem soleimani got caught planning additional attac

mike santoli. >>> mega millions aren't the only chance for hyperbolic games.some gambles on small biotech lately ibb is down today on pace for the fourth straight day off lows of the session, but down about doisow1.%. w dn 66 (guard) what i've witnessed... controlled fury. freakish intelligence. wicked seduction. these endeavors will rattle your soul... and challenge the contents of your stomach. if that sounds dramatic... it is. >>> as we await the world record lottery drawing tomorrow, we're looking at biotech names that can offer jaw dropping return with key catalysts on the horizon. joining us, meg terrell. >> there was a cancer research conference this weekend, investors are looking to what's next friday, a big update on alzheimer's. for clinical trials. biogen will present further evidence on their drug both company stocks sank as there was confusion over the data investors looking for more clarity friday whether they get it, could cause stock swings either direction. early next week, watch alkermes and sage therapeutics. documents come out a few days be

i'm carl quintanilla with mike santoli, morgan brennan here at post 9 of the new york stock exchangen fortt in san francisco. in a minute he's going to bring us a cnbc exclusive with amd's lisa su. you cannot miss that >>> in the meantime, apple feeling pressure from investors. urging the iphone maker to tackle smartphone addiction and overuse by children. they write the potential long-term consequences need to be factored in at the outset and no company can outsource that responsibility joining us at post 9 this morning, elevation partners cofounder roger mcnamee and scott galloway, professor at the stern school of business happy monday good to see you both what an interesting turn this is, roger. what responsibility does apple have to how my kids might use a phone? >> quite honestly, they have a lot. the culture of silicon valley has been about disruption for so long that people have forgotten there are consequences to disruption, and at the scale that the tech guys are at now, they have to take some responsibility now, apple in this case, i think, is nowhere near the worst offende

get to rick santelli and santoli exchange rick. >> thanks, carl.you're a technician we've talked about this many times in the santoli exchange fundamentals hard to get gps a lot of things have been managed, manipulated, use any word you want. tall that should be kind of taking care of, so to speak, on technicals human behavior is what we see in charts and human behavior understands the activity of central banks and their policy i'm not saying it's good or bad it exists at all to that end we had a lot of central bank meetings, some important ones with respect to our firm, minutes today, hinting like ecb or bank of england. so what i've done is look at all the things that seem to have come to a culmination point last friday, employment friday. let's do to the board. ten-year note yields okay so we're closed obviously on columbus day but on the friday we traded over 240 on intraday basis but we never had the close above 240. as a matter of fact, here is october, here is the election. we settle at 244 we've tried two occasions to get back to it and we

mike santoli said it best when he said nothing changed with these companies. only thing that changed it rhetoric and sentiment regarding the companies. that can shift over time at the end of the day, fundamentals matter. with these companies as positive fundamentals continue, the stock should respond in kind >> paul, do you agree? >> i agree to a certain extent i would say i go through in my own work some of the parts of analysis and i think once you do that with the faangs, the most attractive to me is google, but the most interesting based on its rapid growth is amazon, so i would say as a backdrop that i still think trumping some valuation, you can't do too much valuation work with some of the companies, the rapid growth of users and revenue. that's why i continue to like folks like amazon with amazon web services yes, the breakup analysis is somewhat important, but the revenue growth is always going to be the most important >> paul, should investors be going through the bargain bin looking at recent ipos that are trading below where they priced? i'm thinki

our mike santoli says it's traded eight times the amazon or apple.t why -- are have you changed your tone, pierre, given that your target remains unchanged at $800? >> you can't say i've changed my tone my tone remains exactly the same we have graded tesla a few weeks back, $800 price target. 2 million to 3 million units in 2026 and if you put that into the stock, it's probably worth $800 today. i think at $800, the stock reflects a company doing 2.5 million units in 2026. they could do better than that, a bit less than that it will be difficult to get a fundamental catalyst giving you increased confidence on whether they can do better than that the second thing -- go ahead >> you called out for a potential miss on margins in q1 and a y disrupting the three in your view. how confident are you in that call >> it's not a call, actually what i did in that piece of research for my client investors is to describe what could be the thing that could hurt the stock from today's levels. i listed four things the first one is the end of the short. it's very hig

mike santoli joins us. cnbc markets commentator what do you think?nitial lessons from powell's address? >> mostly reiterating what he's been saying for a while. certainly very focused on the down side risk and the risk that we can fall into a trap similar to the post 2009 experience where perhaps the fiscal stimulus was a little halting, wasn't enough and had a slow and steady come back and recovery. but one that wasn't really kind of taking enough people back into the workforce too quickly i think it's reinforce what's the market is cliinclined to wih for. it's sort of getting priced in it's unclear if it's in the market right now that they'll be, you know, let's say $2 trillion stimulus plan i think the direction of most indicators and incentives are moving in that direction i don't see much of a take away from the comments except on the fiscal front the no real talk about, for example, tamping down the rising yields at the longer end of the treasury curve >> yeah. i did want to ask yabout that people are looking back to june when we did hit 80 bas

mike santoli is here to talk about what it means.e writing about junk bond rallies ended for now. >> yeah. i think there was about a three week kind of embrace of risk and cyclical trade, the idea we'll look past soft numbers to get to unturn in the industrial sector. the numbers today, i don't know, i mean, i think people are trying to take them with a grain of salt given gm noise and boeing but we are at a point where some numbers have to actually get better, can't be all anticipation for three weeks, s&p is up 5% into the fed print, and i think that you have the muscle memory, we sold off after the fed a few times. i don't see it as much more than that, being a little bit of a stutter step at month end, but there is a test for the idea that the cyclicals can work. transports are down big two days in a row it is getting to the point where the difference between it being a rebound and being a new trend is here. also, i will say modest up side in apple and facebook, giving very good quarters often get to the second half of earnings s

mike santoli joins us with a look at that. >> volatility is the least expected piece of that, even if the minority that said trump is going to win, the market will like it and rally and hold the gains i think the idea you would have this potentially disruptive administration and incredibly calm market, in fact, the calmest market in decades is the surprising factor. what's gone into that. everyone talking about the macro calm the fact we have this steady global expansion central bank, credit, that's the backdr backdrop i think the way the market is acting, lots of winners and losers, 14 of all s&p stocks up 30% to date. 30% of all s&p stocks are down year-to-date you have this push pull negligent out to place i had h placid in decks. mostly around the 10 mark in recent weeks also has dragged a lot of people this is the part hard to get chicken or egg answers on this short volatility trade, this idea people are piling into these exchange traded notes that allow you continued lower volatility some say it's depressing volatility others say it's the way it works there. you have upward cur

mike santoli, i have no doubt, is watching this closely from the nasdaq. your thoughts today, mike?u know, carl, i think seven or eight times in the last couple of weeks, the s&p 500 sort of made a high for the day around that 2,300 mark that had been the old high. so the question was, was that a ceiling or softening up that level? and i do think that nothing really broke during this long, calm period. we've gone sideways. maybe we're still in that calm period, just kind of nosing above the upper end of that range. but i do think that because nothing broke, the credit market didn't really, you know, throw any kind of a tantrum, you didn't see any other stress in the system. it was just a matter of what was going to be the next catalyst. so, perhaps today with this talk about the president moving along some kind of a tax package, i do think it provided a little bit of an excuse to say, okay, maybe things are going to move forward. i think this market's very hungry for any excuse to raise earnings estimates going out a few quarters, or at least prevent them from eroding very much. and

our senior markets commentator mike santoli is writing about that this morning on dotcom.d to see you. >> good to see you, carl july 2007 was time to start worrying even though it didn't seem like it at the time stocks at at new high-time high and unemployment at 4.5% really it didn't seem like there was much reason to think there was the end. in mid-july, a 9% sudden pullbacked in 500. did you rebound into october to about the same level as the highs in july and then it fell apart from there just an occasion to look at similarities and differences with today's market given, of course, we're at an all-time highand have full employment you do have elevated stock you have more expensive stock market i could argue it's justified but definitely more expensive. low volatility leading into this period, of course, very low unemployment as well so you have a late cycle feel to the economy, and then high corporate debt levels. we don't talk a lot about that, but right now correspondent rat leverage is pretty high. companies have done a good job of taking care of a complaint fixed i

and facebook just saturday said no non-employee visitors to any of their campuses globally >> mike santoliave a rally on our hands today the dow is up 2.5% the s&p and nasdaq not far behind but we are also thinking about domestic impacts of this largely, it seems that the markets are reacting to what has been happening overseas. >> yeah. >> how should investors think about that and the data points we are likely to get over the next few days. >> the market rushed down to a place where we built in a fair amount of likely disruption. i don't know exactly how much. it is hard to quantify, and arguably the market was always going to overshoot in the short-term and then try to figure out really it runs a wide range it could be several weeks of precaution and curtailment a government shutdown, plus a tariff stand still combined but bubbles. something like that. some sort of relatively defined period of time when companies out of excess of caution take these measures then back away from them. to where we have to radically modify our growth expectations i think the market at the moment is largely t

welcome to "squawk alley" here with me at post 9, michelle caruso-cabrera, mike santoli carl and sarae the morning off. first up, bitcoin open for trading yesterday on an exchange run by the cboe. heavy traffic causing outages on the cboe website, while the exchange also halted trading temporarily due to extreme volatility what to expect from bitcoin futures after what a wild week for that digital currency. a lot of people thought once this opened up we're going to see it fall because people would be shorting it, but that's not stopped the rise >> it hasn't happened, but it's only been a few hours, so let's see what happens take a look where we are, it's important to point out we're trading at a nice premium to the underlying spot price here 18,000 now over that cash price is 16,700, it's been fluctuating, but you have a good $1,200 premium or so this is what's called the cost of money, the carry, that's tying up money for a month, so it's usually a bit of a premium. whether that's worth the 8% or so, we'll find out two trading halts, but they were part of the product design it's impo

joinings us, mike santoli, and nice have you back, jon fortt and kayla tausche.ales of apple recoverecovering. the smartphone along with continuing concerns over the recent celebrity icloud-related hack, we caught up with box ceo aaron levy asked him about the hack. take a listen. >> this is an example of the distinction between consumer oriented products or services and enterprised oriented products and services. the level of depth that we invest in our platform, whether about privacy controls, security all of our backing technology, notification to factor awe then theation, all of those things go towards helping enterprises manage information in a secure way that works for their industry, but we also want to make sure that content can be accessed from the devices you want to work from. where apple is incredibly successful and want to int grapt with those types of platforms going forward. >> a lot of diversity of opinion on the street over what apple needs to do next tuesday. pacific crest on. got to have something that changes the world or we cut them. other, s

mike santoli. >>> facebook's push into privacy.ies of new policies being rolled out by the social media giant as you know. we'll get a lot more on that when we come back. dow up 87. back to 2952, sticky today rick, what are you watching? >> you know, i'm watching the markets in general it's been a great run for equities and thinking about all the people that want more stimulus in the economy. they must all be fans of the fast and furious hit the nitrous, hit the nitrous. we're going to talk about imatn tethbrk.stulioafr e ea - did you know that americans that bought gold in 2005 quadrupled their money by 2012? and even now, many experts predict the next gold rush is just beginning. (upbeat music) - [announcer] today the u.s. money reserve announces the immediate release of u.s. government issued solid gold coins for the incredible price on screen. these gold american eagles are official gold coins of the united states and are being sold for the price on screen. - pick up the phone and call america's gold authority u.s. money reserv

joining us to discuss rbc lead analyst mark mahaney and at post nine, our commentator mike santoli.ou do with something this specific where the risk/reward may be very large, but the time to get there is also very large. >> right i think the most immediate place the market is going to go is maybe it restrains the valuation of these companies it caps the valuations if you look last year at the highs in these stocks and pretty much they're all down 20% or so from their peaks, the valuations and the reason that they were sort of the go to for everybody for growth was that their growth long term was almost automatic and the platforms were impenetrable and those are the reasons they're under fire i do think that you can say if they can show continued earnings growth you count on that this is the kind of market you probably see a little bit of a reflex of rotation into big cap growth stocks like these, simply because, you know, growth in general is kind of challenged. very low yields. looking for steady cash flows. i don't think the market will handicap outcomes and figure out breakups an

mike santoli here to break down the move that got started a few minutes ago when we got word out of kaylasche's reporting as well that it looks like we're going to delay any decision on auto tariffs for europe. happy with -- >> i think for as long as a little bit of a twitch, yes, it makes sense. what i like to look at is what works when you get one of these moves. we, obviously, are just reclaiming that last hour of losses yesterday, not even coming close to doing that just yet, but it's big tech again it's not -- it wasn't the car stocks driving us higher at this point. it was basically we like when we're in the buying mood, when we think the market has had enough pain for the short term it tends to be the large growth stocks that's offsetting weakness in the banks today. that to me is a little bit of a tell of where maybe the leadership still has to be >> so auto tariffs were worth 150 points in the dow, but i'm still trying to figure out what is this crummy economic data out of china and the u.s. mean for us i mean it field feeds into the global deflationary story again. it feeds into

mike santoli is here. >> at least for the stocks at the publicly traded asset managers.f you looking at blackstone, apollo, down 40 45% in the last six months. >> private equity guy hasn't been involved. >> what are we paying for if we're not sourcing new deals. credit markets are soft. all this stuff kind of weighing on this group. >> you don't want that. >> if you own a share of blackstone or apollo, what do you pay them for? just enough to nurse management fees on idle cash? that's basically the argument right now is are they being disciplined or it's a better business move long-term, or is it just dead money for a while? >> what's the new cause of the markets misunderstanding of these companies because back in the leverage buy-out boom, the stocks would rise when they would do a big deal even though they wouldn't realize the value of that deal for five, seven, sometimes ten years, and now they're exiting everything, and the stocks aren't going up. >> it seems like -- i think back then they were applying their advantage. i think a lot of people are looking at a fortre

mike santoli has the story >> right now it doesn't seem like we're particularly late in the game if ermhes of the expansion. markets at their highs credit markets good. the vix low. why is the market now pressing the fed to come in with what you might consider its strongest web out of the bullpen well, it's part of the same logic that has why wait to use it at the end of the game. if there is a kraushl moment in the game, you should bring in that closer. that seems to be what the markets are saying a rate cut right now would be the equivalent of bringing your best weapon in to diffuse a threat before you actually need to use that person later on down the line now, the quants in baseball and markets are using this you don't need a cycle to ward off later. that's basically what we're talking about here you've kind of used that weapon in a way that really is not most effective. now down the road you don't have that rate cut in your pocket and, in fact, the market might go on to new heights in the economy. wimp is the thing calling on the fed to make this move. you see this inverted structu

let's bring in tom lee and mike santoli both with us here at post nine.beyond meat's run-up to this report indicative of the investor sentiment we're seeing in the market? tom, is it >> i think the run-up really shows how the market has started to put a big premium on execution stories, rather than valuation sensitivity. i think it's even handling today's news quite well. you know, this massive increase in shares should have destroyed the stock. and 10% is kind of a mild pullback >> exactly it's all relative, right we're still talking about a name that three months ago when it ipo'd, it's up 800%. since then, i think it begs the question, mike santoli, especially when you do see the ceo also selling some of the shares and doing it earlier than the six-month lockup, could you look at this as a potential market top >> i wouldn't say it absolutely, clearly is a market top. first of all, there weren't enough shares out there to absorb all of the big picture enthusiasm for this long-term story about plant-based meat, obviously. so getting more shares out there