our own leslie picker and morgan paxia. >>> look at where the major averages stand nasdaq is negative but the dow and s&p 500 continue to push into new record highs. almost up in the s&p "squawk on the street" will be right back

i'm carl quintanilla with leslie picker. the market is ch

leslie picker. thank you. kate, not everyone is happy about robinhood's ipo.eatening to short that stock as well. so kate rooney has the latest there. >> that's right. robinhood has been a polarizing -- there are fans that have introduced a whole new generation of investors the stock market they are facing push back from people online. they are saying they are going to boycott the ipo robinhood is reserving 20% of hairs for vail investors on the platform like leslie just reported it had originally said up to 35%. a faction of them are take took reddit and twitter urging each other to not buy into robinhood's ipo today. others are pledging to borrow money to short it. a lot of these comments are stemming from grunls around gamestop and trade reg restrictions in january. other reddit traders are saying ignore it, not spend the money to short the stock according to a survey from card fy, robinhood users are pretty mixed whether they would buy shares in this ipo a third said they would buy. 30% said, nope, they are not buying a third say they are still unsure guys

. >>> time for a news update with leslie picker. >> hey, sara i'm leslie picker with your cnbc news update. lebron's son is recovering in the hospital after he suffered cardiac arrest during basketball practice at the university of southern california. he is no longer in the icu and is in stable condition. >>> more backlash in israel over the government's controversial judicial overhaul measure. the israel medical association ordered doctors to strike for 24 hours around the nation except in jerusalem, which is the scene of escalating confrontations labor leaders have threatened a wider strike >>> right there. right there. he's about 20 yards in front of you. >> new video shows the moment an ohio family was reunited with their missing 4-year-old boy the boy disappeared while playing in his backyard. soon ohio state troopers were called in to search for him. a helicopter crew spotted him in a bean field and guided the search party to his location where he was found safe. what a happy ending to that story. back to you. >> yeah. wow. all on tape. leslie, thank you. >>> after the break, the se

leslie picker has the latest.: mike, yeah, those higher capital requirements remain the focus of today's hearing. senator thom tillis asking james gorman will one tenet of the basel proposal on how operational risk is calculated. >> it makes no sense. that's the bottom line. i've been at this a long time. i served on the new york fed for years. i've seen a lot of rules. some of them make sense, and it's a question how far you turn the dial. this doesn't make sense. >> reporter: outside of those higher capital rules, conversations involving esg senator j.d. vance concluded with bank of america ceo brian moynihan. senator vance said many of the banked, quote, jumped into a culture war" and he pushed bofa on financing a certain coal mining to which moynihan responded the decision he made was to not continue funding specifically those that take the top mountains and turn them into mines. it's been a pretty friendly back and forth so far although we have a ways to go. >> all right, leslie. we'll be back to you with mor

back to you. >> leslie picker, thank you very much.ll talk to the ceo later this hour about birkenstock going public. this is a company that traces its roots back to the 1700s. oliver is joining us on "squawk on the street." talking about the wholesale inflation number, ppi coming in the on the hot side and cpi is out tomorrow, more important. headline numbers .5% monthly gain. that was more than expected. .3% in the core index, which strips out food and energy which is important because energy is a contributor to that headline inflation. food was also a contributor about.9% in food prices jump on the september month but the core price a little bit elevated not what the fed or market wants to see here. if you look at the year over year reading on core, it's 2 pn.7 so getting closer in the neighborhood but still elevated compared to prepandemic inflation levels. so that's the conversation at the fed. this and yields. >> now we're down 30 basis points. >> on yields. >> yes. >> there's a flight to safety, everything going on in the middle

we're just individual stock pickers. >> can you name a few? >> sure. divested a division and the stock is going to hit 3.90 and another one is royal caribbean. they have about a 25% share of the cruise market. the stock is 117 with $10 on earnings, double-digit top line and bottom line growth the company earns about 17.2% on book, and this year their cap "x" will be way down last year 3 billion. this year 1.2. they should generate a nexus of 2.5 to 3 billion in cash both solid companies with high returns owningities and expected upside for 2019. >> jot, is it easier for your screen to find value targets right now, or less so in recent years? >> well, it was a lot easier in december i mean, we've been back into companies we never would have thought of we bought cisco on the bottom at 42.50 and companies like parker hannaford that went back up to 16, 17 and another one i bought was lockheed was selling at at 12p and raytheon at 12.5, they are back at 16 times earnings. it's getting increasingly difficult, but it was easy pickings in the end of december a

think about it this way, if it's a time for stock pickers to win, it's also time to stock pickers towinner there has to be a loser in the market. formarket. every purchase is a sale so to me it's a silly statement that seems to get a lot of credibility like many things in our lives and the more it's repeated the more it becomes part of the conventional wisdom but makes no sense at all. doesn't make mathematical sense, logical sense. this is not an opinion. this is a fact. >> what was your take on the president endorsing some of the stricter standards for brokers who recommend retirement account investments? >> i'm strongly in favor of it been strongly in favor of it for years as anybody that follows my career knows. i've been speaking out about a broad standard of fiduciary duty as long as i can remember and hope one day we get that standard of fiduciary duty for anybody who puts a hand on anybody else's money. this is a good start, the retirement plan business is a huge business and growing, so if we can make inroads calling for advisors to have fiduciary duty there that's a good st

if you are a stock picker, you want to earn a name where earnings and free cash flow are higher i thinkhere were some deceleration from 49% to 6%. we would have liked aws to have a greater quarter given the softer revenue guide i think your question is good call about what is the revenue guidance implied for ecommerce businesses i think when you look at the operating income of the third quarter, when you look at the gross profit performance, i wish they would sort of guide it. i wish they would highlight that kind of metric i think you have a story where you can look of earnings of free cash flow. the issue is it seems that it may come in the category of a shift on focusing on revenue growth and earnings of free cash that shift for investors can be a little bit disrupt activiived. we are still a couple of years out on value on amazon >> mark, the company does seem to be taking pain and talk about controlling cost and talking about 13% increase in head count for example verses previous years. 38% last year not including whole foods. do you expect that to continue and if so what does it d

. >> right >>> i want to get to leslie picker on the s.w.i.f.t. side of this it's an important component of what we're dealing with the market that is digesting the news that certain russian firms will no longer be able to utilize s.w.i.f.t. lessly has more on that story. good morning >> reporter: good morning. u.s. bank exposure to russia is limited with only citigroup having material exposure according to a new note this morning by goldman sams. city has about $5.5 billion worth of loans, investment securities, and trade ago count assets, as of the third quarter. other large cap firms don't break out their russian exposure the country is not on the top 20 list for any of them implying jpmorgan, morgan stanley, wells f fargo. european banks, on the other hand, have greater exposure to russia that could have an indirect impact on wall street. jpmorgan in a note this morning saying, quote, while financial disruptions are likely to be severe in russia and the sanctions so far can disrupt international financial flows, the impact will be limited at t

not just amateur stock pickers, professional stock pickers economists are terrible.terrible at predicting the gdp one year from now how is it everyone is so bad at this it goes to two ideas one is people have biases that infect their opinions a lot. you have confirmation bias you only look for ideas that support your own point of view biases, there's dozens of them that behavioral economists have studied that we know infect their ability to make accurate predictions. the second is there's an unknowability of predicting the futures. try to be an analyst predicting the earnings of a big company. it's impossible. you could have macro events like the economy, companies could have individual events, the ceo could fall ill, you could get bought out it's difficult to predict that you have to be comfortable with a certain degree of unknowability. i've gotten a lot more humble. i made a lot of mistakes i bought general electric stock, our company early on i showed overconfidence in ge and our ceo, jack welch, who i admired, very much the ceo of the 1990s. i believed in him. i

he's been talking with leslie picker at the mfa conference.t he says about the outlook. >> it's a good day to be here to talk about the market, which is reaching all-time highs, and we do look like we have put some of the economic anxiety of q4 behind us. good payroll numbers, good gdp growth and most importantly, inflation is moderating at a pace that's, frankly, better than the market anticipated. we may get goldilocks. we may get a soft landing or even no landing. we may be looking at a moment in time where inflation this year is low 2s, the fed can start to cut rates come this summer, and we will see unemployment touch up a little bit, but the overall economy looks pretty good right now. >> i feel like that encapsulates exactly why stocks are running up here to record highs. how much of that view is in the market and can carry us further, or do we need a new catalyst? >> i think a lot of that optimism is validated by the data as ken was indicating, and that's consistent with assumptions we're making in our baseline forecast. earnings are r

let's get to leslie picker with some of the headlines. >> hey, mike.n the wells fargo call only don't about 1.7%. they recovered a little bit of their initial slum. guidance in focus this morning with wells fargo saying it expects net interest income, the profitability metric from loan making, they expect that to be down 7 to 9% this year compared to 2023 levels in the quarter, nii declined 5% year over year. however c the cfo expects it to trough towards the end of the year and also added that there's, quote, more uncertainty than usual given the market's strong view of rate cuts and that's affecting their estimates as well. ceo sharly scharf spoke about rates, strategy shifts and the health of the borrower. >> as we move forward our business performance remains sensitive to interest rates and the health of the u.s. economy, but we are confident that actions we are taking will drive stronger results over the cycle. we are closely monitoring credit and modest deterioration, it remains consistent with our expectations. >> reporter: charge offs were $1.3

leslie picker has been following that for us. leslie, what do you expect?ock moving ahead with ipo with amended to kick off the road show. the documents from this morning reveal birkenstock and selling shareholder will raise as much as $1.6 billion by selling 32 million shares between 44 and 49 apiece. more than $600 million of the deal is already claimed by cornerstone investors who have indicated they intend to buy in at the ipo price. at these levels, birkenstock's valuation would be as high as $9.2 billion in an ipo on nondiluted basis. today's road show was almost this warted by government shutdown. when the prospect of an s.e.c. closure looked like it could happen over the weekend, they actually tried to move it up to friday afternoon and early evening, but weren't ultimately able to get the final ts crossed in time, according to sources familiar with the matter. but when congress averted the shutdown over the weekend, birkenstock had that green light. they were able to move forward with their original plans. now, the company actually traces its roots

:30 or so, but, you know, stay with us and we'll bring you the latest >> leslie, thank you leslie pickerother important day for the ipo market we'll hear more from instacart ceo fidji simo. >>> chipotle hope consumers don't buy more groceries and continue to dine out ceo brian niccol is with us next (ella) fashion moves fast. setting trends is our business. we need to scale with customer demand... ...in real time. (jen) so we partner with verizon to take our operations to the next level. (marquis) with a custom private 5g network. (ella) with verizon business, we get more control of production, efficiencies, and greater agility. (marquis) so our customers get what they want, when they want it. (jen) it's not just a network. it's enterprise intelligence. (vo) learn more. it's your vision, it's your verizon. nice footwork. man, you're lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. now you can stream all your games like it's nothing. yes! [ cheers ] yeah! woho! running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinit

leslie picker, we'll be chatting all morning long. and there's a piece in the "times" today about how it's no longer about delivery as much as it is about software and advertising. >> that made me feel like, please don't go into that deal unless they really price it in the hole. >> they did take instacart value down dramatically from where it was. >> but david, keep it in perspective. the last big deal we had was rivian. that was an $11.93 billion and retail went nuts for that, and they got really hurt. >> they did. you remember when rivian had over $100 billion market value. >> yeah, that was ill advised. >> that was a different time. you can imagine how that would appeal to people in a way that perhaps this is a little -- >> you sound wistful about that time. it was a different time. >> it was -- i mean, listen, we can sit here and say, that's not probably a good thing. you can see what we're talking about there before '21. wow. since then, it has -- >> people have too much enthusiasm there. >> now it's a $22.4 billion market value,

our leslie picker confirming, i believe, has made a bid as much as $65 a share for its part.t has received expressions of interest and that's all it's going to be telling us at this point starboard's interests seem to be based not as much, perhaps, on changing management's approach completely as simply the idea that this thing looked cheap and they seemed to have followed through on that belief, of course their belief that perhaps brick-and-mortar retail's future is better than some would believe, based on the future cash flows they saw coming from kohl's i think 675 is the number i saw for consensus estimates for next year gives you a sense of where multiples are for fiscal year '22 so that's some perspective in terms of how cheaply the stock had been trading the other name, unilever one of the biggest activist funds tryon. there have been no conversations that have taken place between unilever's management and trian. no comment at all. so unclear at this point what they're looking for, whether they would try to follow the same playbook they used to such great effect at proc

leslie picker has been looking at it this morning. leslie? ipos may not be creating much in the way of riches for the public market investors out there but the return of ipos means fees are back on wall street. the three large deals, we were able to calculate the fee pool from the last week. in total the underwriters made $173 million for their roles in managing the arm, instacart and klaviyo deals. those figures don't include the green shoes for the latter ones yet and would cause the numbers to be higher. it's a welcome source of revenue in a corner of the banking industry that's been largely dormant for a few years now. that's especially true for goldman which led instacart and klaviyo and shared a co-lead role on arm. the firm brought in $43 million combined from those three deals which amounts to 13% of what the equity underwriting group that includes secondaries made in the entirety of the second quarter. jpmorgan, which had prominent roles in arm and instacart, came in second with $27 million haul, and barclays rounding out the top thr

i'm carl quintanilla with leslie picker. >>> let's get straight to it.santelli and steve liesman with us on what this is and what this week's economic data does for the fed's thinking as we kick off september and debate a hike pause. guys, thanks for doing this. rick, let's start with you. what do you make of the overall kind of at least what we saw in rates with the volatility given all the incoming data we saw this

leslie picker with some details. leslie? >> yeah, sarah.couraged by what they see here. but ceo jane frazier making a surprise appearance at a financials conference today, speaking alongside cfo mark mason. frazier commented on the reorganization that citi made this morning, calling it the, quote, most consequential change to how the firm will be organized and run in almost 20 years. citi is creating a direct link from each of the firm's five businesses, services to markets, banking, wealth, and personal banking to the ceo's office. it's also consolidating all markets outside the u.s. to one direct report. now, with this streamlining, there will be job cuts, i'm told, although citi has yet to qua quantify those. >> hard, consequential, tough decisions here. they are not going to be universally popular within our bank. it's going to make some of our people very uncomfortable. and i am absolutely fine with that. i am confident that our strongest performers are going to be fully supportive of these moves and it is absolutely the right thing to

because if i'm a smart picker, one of you or somebody out there is a dumb picker., and they sell it to me. so we're just making opposite picks about what's going to happen. so the simple reality is investors as a group inevitably gain the return of the total stock market. and they lose by the amount of their costs. this is fundamental indexing theory, but that is the way the market works. so we all zero out in the markets return finally less cost. >> but so where people say forces like a strengthening dollar, rising interest rates, while that may help some companies, it will effectively hurt others. and you'd be better off going with the one bucket of stocks that those forces will help rather than those that it will hurt and just doing that by buying the indexes. why not pick the stocks like ge, like the banks, like some of these health care companies that you think might actually benefit? >> well, first the stock market hardly has a generous yield. the s&p yield is probably 2%. and i think our high dividend index fund here at vanguard probably has a yield of maybe

leslie picker watching the banks.you think mathematically jpmorgan sets up the banks this quarter or not >> i think if you're solomon, if you're brian moynihan you realize what you shouldn't say you say it's uncertain times but we got your back we'll have rising rates. we like the consumer and we're not as exposed as other banks to international repercussions. >> right. >> jpm is up about 2%. by the way quick reminder. get in on the cnbc investing club with jim. sign up or point your phone at the qr code on the screen. >>> we'll check bonds and treasuries pretty wicked 24 hours of comments from bullard and the ft this morning br br brainard with the journal yet. the 10 year below 2.7 yesterday. we'll be right back. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like.

i'm carl quintanilla with leslie picker at post 9 of the new york stock exchange.lls fargo's scott wren on why it's time to reduce exposure to a few points of the market. >>> max

double digits >>> with that, we're down about 260 on the dow let's get a news update with our leslie pickerrl, thank you for that house speaker kevin mccarthy sounded optimistic today ahead of the crucial debt vote on the debt ceiling he said following the vote, he will put together a commission to review the budget and try to find long-term solutions meanwhile, president biden sent white house officials to the capitol this morning to try to show up support. the deal is receiving blowback from conservatives and some progressives >>> nevada is enhancing penalties for people who harassing with intimidate, or use force on the state's election workers the governor signed a bill into law that could send offenders up to prison for years. threats and intimidations ramped up significantly during the 2020 election >>> and a nasa panel formed last year to study what the government calls unidentified aerial phenomenon also known as ufos is due to hold its first public meeting they assemble experts from fields ranging from physics to astrobiology nasa is set to release a report later this morning exami

i'm leslie picker in for scott wapner.next move for the market as we gear up for a critical week ahead. our investment committee is helping us to navigate it. stephanie link, anastasia amoroso, and jim lebenthal. a check on the market at noon eastern. dow trying to hold on to gains currently up 17 points. the nasdaq holding steady up about half a percent today as yields also holding steady, the 10-year around

leslie picker. the dow is up 700. the nasdaq up 2%.f sectors are up 2% as well like tech, financial, utilities. jim, we are still shy of the 50 day. >> look, i do think we need to get away from the idea we are narrow again. we did lose the semi-s. thanks her big but nowhere as big as tech. i know it is a short -- it is very early in the year but tech has been a dog and david, everything has been coming to tech in the final days. again, i am concerned that is the legacy. would you want that to be the legacy? i certainly wouldn't want it to be the legacy. >> you have made it clear you think it will be. >> there are sizable number of ceos against trump and thought they had a good rapport but when it comes to business, i mean, these are companies that are not -- >> all that said, we have seen a lot of unknowns yet to confront with tariffs at the top of the list. we will continue to talk about this until there is more clarity. deportations and how those will ultimately be impacting the potential worker shortage here and trades for example.

leslie picker this morning. >>> here's a question, why won't spacs die?the question many investors are asking after these dismal returns and plummeting stock prices. we'll discuss athewee ckn o.th wn 'r nice footwork. man, you're lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. now you can stream all your games like it's nothing. yes! [ cheers ] yeah! woho! running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. i may be known for my legendary football career, but truth is, i love a bunch of sports. the only trouble is knowing where to find them. that's why i got xfinity. so, i can easily find and watch whatever sport i'm into all in one place without missing a thing. even if it's football, australian football, or football football. in a word—it's fitz-credible. i got to trademark that one. this season, eligible xfinity rewards members can get up to $100 off nfl sunday ticket from youtube. sign up for xfinity rewards now. >>> we all remember the 2021 spac boom and the

i think the markets will broaden and it will be more of a stock picker's market in the future. we'll have to look outside the magnificent seven. >> sara? >> dan, you don't think the market's getting too excited about rate cuts, moving them into first half of 2024 when the fed is telling you, we're not thinking about cuts yet, don't take more policy firming off the table, core cpi is still elevated the fed has been more right than the market lately in terms of the signals. >> that's an excellent point i think a lot of the attention on the fed and the -- whether they cut or hike near term is going to create some volatility, but in the bigger picture, we're clearly towards the end of the rate-hiking cycle, if not already done and next year -- the fed has said they will stay higher for longer my point would be the absolute level of rates where we are now has actually been a refresh -- a restart for equity markets we're at levels still well below, for example, where we were in the '90s >> what about if the economy worsens further? we're starting to see the impact of all that tighten

. >> this dairs here is a man universally respected by stock pickers as well as indexers.an so respected he was asked to do the new edition of security analysis, the bible of not just value investing but investing in general so, you should listen to this man, the first five minutes of the interview with becky quick this morning we can pull it up on our air because it's a font of wisdom. first off what he says here is becky asked him about indexing versus stock picking this is the ultimate stock picker, one of the most famous in history who came on and said, you have to run harder to stay in place these days. you have to -- we have more competitors, smarter competitors, more information available at everybody's fingertips that's the vortex of index indexing most investors do not have informational advantages anymore. this is why vanguard became famous, why jack bogle became famous he admitted that and still said, there are opportunities for people who want to work hard in real estate, this isn't that hard to figure out this is a guy, buy when there's blood in the street. co

i'm carl quintanilla with leslie picker live on the floor of the new york stock exchange. after that sloppy 30-year bond auction yesterday, how dependent is the market on the next move in yields? is this rally really hanging by a thread citi's scott chronert will way in. >>> later on, earnings with twilio ceo jeff lawson, a gut check on a.i. and the cloud sector. >>> currently a positive day for the broader index. the s&p up 0.3%. the dow up 59 points the nasdaq in the green as the ten-year pulls back a little bit. ten-year yield. >>> topping the tape was last week's relief rally a reliable row? the gains are a lot more muted as yields once again dominate the narrative. is the market at risk of rolling over again let's bring in our senior markets commentator mike santoli, who has not been really unnerved by yesterday's action, right? >> no. a little too early to say it was a complete head fake last week le weak parts of the market going in have rolled a bit and they still look weak we talk about small caps you look at the regional banks haven't necessarily said this is a t

thank you >>> getting a news alert this morning on bank of america for that, we'll turn to leslie pickerlie >> hey, cq bank of america is hiking its minimum wage to $23 per hour next month that means the floor for annual pay for full-time employees increases to nearly $48,000. firm said in a press release thousands of employees will be exacted by this. bank of america doesn't break out a specific number, but the increase is $1 higher than the bank of america's prior minimum wage of $22. bank of america has said that it plans to raise minimum wage to $25 an hour by 2025. that's a 121% increase since 2010 and $23 an hour is broadly higher than almost all of bank of america's banking peers, although some banks do adjust their minimum wages based on location it's also more than three times higher than the federal minimum wage the majority of u.s. states have their own minimum wage laws that are more, but 21 states default to that federal level. working 40 hours a week, that minimum wage equates to just over $15,000 a year. >> having just come off a discussion about wage growth and inflation,

leslie picker.ssion lows, giving back a sizable chunk of wall street's biggest one day rally since 2009 all 11 sectors are trading in negative territory let's focus on one of the notable underperformers. energy stocks. it snapped a seven day losing streak yesterday but down sharply again today as oil prices slip back to 18 month lows amid renewed concerns over supply among those leading to the down side, apache, marathon, and halliburton. despite the rally today, all 30 stocks in theenergy sector are trading in bear market territory or worse the sector as a whole is also the worst performing group during a tur bulent month of december >> thank you for that, leslie picker sara, what's coming up on "closing bell? >> we're talking to scott blatt from delphi asset management the single reason he says the market is selling off and where he sees value. noted buffett disciple lot of people are buzzing about the confidence number from the board. and the expectations component that saw a drop. one, is it sel

low volatility to start the year, hedge funds have actually made some big thematic moves and leslie picker is tracking that for us leslie, good morning >> that's right, hedge fund managers are being a lot pickier about where they put capital to work in this currently environment. a new note by goldman sachs says, quote, rising dispersions and falling correlations have signaled a market environment growing supportive of alpha generation in other words, it should be a good time to be a stock picker goldman combed through q1 filings and found broad sellings within financial and big tech with some very specific exceptions hedge funds broadly reduced ownership in financials amid the sell-off this year, but they did pile into jpmorgan, black rock, and charles schwab fund managers had been increasing ownership of regional banks between 2020 and the first quarter of 2022, but in more recent quarters, they were reducing exposure, even before that march turmoil in the industry hedge funds also sold out of some technology names, cashing out after strong names this year goldman said hedge funds did ad

. >> our own leslie picker had some pretty good things to say that the nation is not debt ridden theeet is stronger than people think >> interesting, though, western companies have withdrawn is truly amazing. two three weeks ago you would not have expected a massive withdrawal from the russian market for many companies it's not a large part of its business, but for that to be the case and china, in other words, a sanction regime. they've got to be thinking about it a lot there it is, the opening bell. [ bell ringing ] >>> at the nasdaq sonder holdings, celebrating a recent listing. >> >> would -- >> those are pretty strong words from shep, what he hearing on his shower from the military experience, their belief nothing will stop putin. the only -- as i said earlier, the conversations you have, i'm sure you have had this all the time, where does it end? it would be unexpect ed for putn to stop. >> there's a percentage of people who say he'll use tactical nukes, and if he didn't win, it's over for him he's always won. he's won every time since 1999 he knows the west is weak. >> yeah. >

so far. >> omar, leslie picker here. i am curious if you agree with that and whether you agree with the gains that we have seen in stocks are more of a fundamental rally than perhaps the macro things we have been talking about with regards to potential for less aggressive set policy and potential for slowing inflation and things of that nature. >> yes. thank you and good morning. a couple of things. one jock, starting with the macro question and talking about the things out there, these markets seem to be fueled significantly by the expectations that the fed will change as far as that they will be a pivot and that will be at some point less aggressive. that seems to be a little premature in many cases. a lot of bargain-hunting. there is a lot of short covering that is happening in the market. the volumes that we have seen, especially even this week, are much, much lighter. very common in august. overall, we will see the shape of the market rally seems to be a lot driven by lack of fear, as opposed to a fundamental convic

we'll look forward to hearing it from you as soon as it happens leslie picker.e banks, and jpmorgan senior equity researcher erica najarian live from the jpmorgan investor day. what do you want to hear from management >> yeah. i want to hear when we can tap into that excess capital so, you know, just to extend on leslie's point, what they really said was look, we're looking for a few clarifications on basel iii endgame as well as a stress test coming up in june now that journal report from yesterday indicated that basel iii endgame will likely not be final until the end of the year and jpmorgan being conservative i don't think they're going to, you know, really accelerate buybacks until we hear a little bit more. with that said, i think we'll get more clarity in june on what that stress capital buffer will be, and i would like to hear what that ramp will look like in the second half of the year. to your point, you know, they haven't changed much in terms of their medium term targets and the stock is near all-time highs, so i think for a long only investors to ge

i'm carl quintanilla with leslie picker and mike santoli. david and sara have the morning off.erforming blue chips. nvidia holding on to an opening bounce. consumer confidence is out. let's get to rick santelli. >> yes. consumer confidence for the month of june in addition, we have some richmond fed indices on richmond fed, if we look at the manufacturing side of the equation, expecting a number minus 3. comes out minus 10. that's the weakest, biggest negative month over month change since march and if we look at the service side, the business conditions, at minus 11, that's the weakest since october of last year. on june consumer confidence, from the conference board, we're expecting a nice even 100 on the headline, comes in better than expected, 100.4. and that follows sequentially 101.3, which is a downward revision of what was originally reported as 102. if we look at the present situation, 141.5. comps to last month which had a huge downward revision. all the way from 143.1 to 140.8. so big downward revision there. so 141.5 now stands as the best level going back to march

i'm carl quintanilla with leslie picker is the pause set up for a pause?modities, ed morris, with us. >>> later, an exclusive with the ceo of sunova, first on cnbc after earnings >>> let's take a look at the markets, about an hour and a half into trading here green on the screen. nasdaq the laggard here. the dow up more than 300 points. se

leslie picker is at the meeting in florida and she has the latest. leslie? >> hey, david. half hour ago to a packed room, more than 300 people in atendance, plus an overflow room. ceo tim sloan opened by telling shareholders they desrerve a lo more from wells fargo and they have a lot more to do in terms of making it a better company. sources are telling me this morning that it's looking likely that all directors will receive more than 50% of the vote, and it's unlikely that we see any resignations since they're not obligated to do so, if they receive more than 50%. the three new board members which include ceo tim sloan received closer to 100% and remaining somewhere between 50% and 80%. those on the risk committee or served on the board longer had more trouble in terms of gett tg afirmive votes in. dissatisfaction with the board in general. many believe wells fargo did not act quick enough in the wake of the sales practices scandal and we spoke with several shareholders before the meeting including a nun from philadelphia with the sisters of st. francis, they hold about

i'm going to deny your request i will do endeavor >> you are picking the picker. >> they'll talk to picker later. james gorman and the incoming ceo of morgan stanley, ted pick. let's talk about this, the stock is up 18%. endeavor, remember, of course, most recently in the news because of the merger of its usc with wwe creating tko of which they control it. go back to the ipo, back in april of '21 i believe it was, you can see, it's not been a good performer that's including the move up today. that's frustrated ari emanuel who runs the company and maybe even silver lake, its largest stakeholder and the company that controls endeavor. late yesterday we got this given the continued dislocation between our public market value and the intrinsic value of our underlying assets, we believe an evaluation of strategic alternatives is prudent. what does that mean? we may sell the company. silver lake made it clear we're not selling to anybody but us. so they might buy in what they don't already own. silver lake believes in endeavor's business and is not interested in selling its shares in endeavor to

i'm a little less sure about the idea of stock picking making a comeback you know stock pickers haverecord in the last several years. take a look at what happened last year in the middle of the year, the last time we had numbers for it, the percentage of managers who underperformed their benchmarks, 60% underperformed the s&p 500 60% of mid-cap managers underperformed the numbers are terrible, and this was a good year last year a lot of people argue, if suddenly the market slows down, people who are actively picking stocks will be able to do it maybe. here's the problem they don't have a good record doing that and number two, there's not a lot to buy amongst etfs, you can get tot, the gun locks fund that's a bond fund pimco is another really big one. the money market fund. that's really a short duration fund with a kicker in it. again, sort of very defensive, and you have ishares short maturity, another one that's largely a bit of a money market fund with a kicker there's not a lot of big stock picking etfs out there, a few like dorsey right aacr would be a symbol there they base on

pick and picker. with it. >> he said, i'm ted pick, she said, i'm leslie picker. pick and picker. and then it follows up with a great interview. >> there you go. >> kind of takes us to uber-expedia? >> i'll go there if you want. i'm going to -- full transparency here, sort of back and sort of -- i mean, i've been reporting, as many of our audience knows, for -- since i walked in the door at cnbc 31 years ago in m&a. >> what? 31 years ago. >> yeah, yeah, over 31 years. >> oweh my god. did you come from institutional investor? >> can i continue for a moment? we had the story from the "ft," you see the headline there. a few weeks ago, banker talk, somebody said, hey, you know what, uber might be thinking about doing a transformative, i think, was the word used. transformative deal. thinking about something like that. i'm like, oh, that's interesting. and i made some calls, and i got nowhere, really, in terms of trying to understand whether there had been -- what the target might be. expedia was number on

realreal set to make a public debut any moment joining us is the ceo julie wainwright and leslie pickers so much. julie, thank you for joining us today. so online luxury consignment retail the most important word is authentication and trustworthiness of your customers. how do you go about ensuring each item sold on your website is, in fact, the item that they say it is? >> so as you may know, we actually have also a service component. so we go to people's homes and remove items every single item on the site has already been inspected, authenticated before it gets to the site and we do it, we have multiple ways i think we're -- we employ over 100 experts. perhaps the second largest employer of gemologists in the u.s. our brand authenticators also train people it happens every single day on a regular basis. we put it through a rigorous multipoint inspection process. >> is there 100% guarantee that everything is authenticated? have you ever seen an instance where a counterfeit good is stoon your site? >> we have 99.9%, which is pretty darn good we are not an easy place for a counterfeiter

also amplified leslie picker's tweet this morning, looking. at the. >> view that. >> many consensus longs on. >> no news. >> triggered risk management to kick in. >> that was. >> i think i'm not. >> when people. >> lose money. >> i don't mean i've lost money. >> i've been. >> i've been trading since 1979. i've lost money. >> i've. >> made money. i can tell you when i lost money, when i lost money. >> was when i. >> decided, get out. now it's over. when i made money is to. >> take the. >> other side. >> of the trade. >> who was me to get out now? guy, this is no different, you know, except for the fact is, this was a belief in a president. and you now think he doesn't care about the averages. and it's an all new president. it's a populist president. it's william jennings bryan. well, actually. >> we elected mckinley. >> not william jennings bryan. >> and people ought to go read the two because one is. raise less corn, more hell, and the other one is gold standard. and let's keep things strong business. so i mean, anyone who's decided. >> that.

. >> leslie picker here at post nine of the new york stock exchange. cramer and faber. >> have the morning off. >> and speaking. >> of cramer congratulations to him and his philadelphia eagles on. >> last night's super bowl victory over the kansas. >> city chiefs. >> we also wish jim a happy birthday today. >> man what. >> a birthday present. >> a lot more. >> on the. >> super bowl coming up. futures are green coming off friday's sell off. and looking past these headlines about new tariffs and retaliation. we're going to get to all of it. a roadmap this morning goes like this. trump's tariff threats. the president teasing some new levies on all steel and aluminum imports. even as china's retaliatory tariffs. kick in. >> plus new. warning signs about. >> the strength of the us consumer. mcdonald's, posting its biggest domestic sales decline in nearly five years. >> and shares of meta platforms up again in premarket. the mag seven stock, aiming for its 16th straight day of gains. sweet 16. >> let's begin with this new week for the markets and the preside

leslie picker. >>> we have some breaking news out of d.c. let's get to megan cosellah for that. "the new york times" is reporting that president biden has told a key ally that he knows he may not be able to salvage his candidacy, unless he can convince the public in the coming days that he is up for the job. this is following that debate performance last week. the white house and biden's campaign have been really dug in this week, saying that he's still up for it. this is the first indication as "the new york times" reports that the president is seriously considering that he might not be able to move forward. this ally emphasizes that he is still all in on his candidacy, as of now, but he's acknowledging that some of the appearances that he has coming up, he's hitting the campaign trail in wisconsin, he has an interview scheduled later this week with abc news. he's acknowledging that if those do not go well, that he might not be able to move forward. that's from the new "the ne times." >> over the last couple of days, there have been a number of democrats, some prominent, have c

i'm david faber with mike santoli and leslie picker. we're at post nine at the new york stock exchange. of course, carl and jim have the morning off. let's get a look at futures as we wait for the penultimate day of trading ahead. our road map begins with that fact, in fact. those two days left in the trading year. big tech coming off a rough day last week. a number of sectors, as well, under pressure this month. >> shares of boeing are down after south korea ordered an inspection of all 737 -800 planes, that's the model involved in that deadly crash over the weekend. >>> and remembering the life and legacy of former president jimmy carter who passed away last night. >>> and that's where we begin, former president jimmy carter has died at his home in plains, georgia. carter was 100 years old. he was the 39th president, serving in the white house from 1977 to 1981. carter was awarded a nobel peace prize in 2002 for undertaking peace negotiations, campaigning for human rights, and working for social welfare. carter's death begins a series

it's great to have you here. >> pick and picker, yes. >> it's great to have you here.-- it was a consistent show, again. i'm really happy with the consistency of the results in both segments. the wealth and investment management businesses, but also in the investment bank, which you're making reference to. we have now sequential eps of 202 in the first quarter, 182 in the second quarter, 188 in the third quarter. so, real consistency. and operating leverage. operating leverage, which you can see by efficiency improving by 300 basis points, and our returns on capital at 17.5%, 18% for the year, so there's a real story there around the top line and around efficiency, but there's also a story around growth, and clearly, what's beginning to happen here is we're starting to see an acceleration activity, not just in the markets business in our institutional securities business but also in investment banking proper. we're seeing it in underwriting. we're seeing it in m&a. it's begin to happen. it's beginning to happen. as you know, the private equity sponsors have over a tril

pickers.efinitely concerned the fact that we're trying to protect an industry that is less than one-third of 1% of the s&p 500 and potentially harming up to one-third of different industries with higher exports as well as those industries that rely on aluminum and steel imports. the auto industry is twice as big as the steel industry, just to give an example in the market so i think those impacts could be much greater, and i wouldn't poo-poo the tariffs just yet certainly with wage growth, absolutely we're always looking at how hawkish the fed is going to look, and that's important on interest rates, more sort of adding short-term volatility, not so much long-term. we still have an idea in the general trend of where things are going. >> gina, kkr has a piece out today where they say they're getting more constructive on europe and asia relative to the u.s. maybe because of inflation on tariffs, but more pointedly, fiscal policies, regulatory policies that will lead the fed eventually to be more

it is definitely going to be a stock pickers market. this is not a rising tide, lift all boats kind of scenario going forth. we've already seen that part of the recovery. this is like '03. we've seen that part of the recovery, that part of the market. now it's about picking stocks. you want to buy the higher quality, leverage the foreign growth, benefit from the lower dollar and the great productivity enhancement we've seen over the past year. >> guys, thanks. >>> ipos have hit the market but have had difficult garnering large investment interest. for more on that, let's go down to the floor to bob pisani. >> commercial rel estate is looking for a recovery. where are we in the commercial real estate cycle and how is that news affecting us? this is ceo of apollo commercial real estate finance celebrating his ipo. did it a few days ago, still, we're glad to have you here. i want to ask you about the news of the day, nonfarm payroll weaker than expected. what is the impact of a weaker employment outlook in your business and in the economy?