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we got our senior markets commentator mike santoli joining us now what the interesting part about thiss, is this idea that we're seeing a follow through on the sell-off, but not a panicky follow through that must give some traders a little bit of comfort here. >> probably so it's often said that you don't necessarily want to see some kind of a weak bounce that gets knocked down so, yeah, some follow through on the downside did see some work over the weekend that when you've had a decline on a friday, you have a weak monday and then some recovery later in the ensuing days this all makes some kind of sense. and, of course, dealing with the leftover uncertainty of exactly what we should expect in terms of monetary policy ten-year is well above 3% now. those have been levels that have given equities a little bit of trouble on the way up here so i do think there's plenty of absorb although, once again, an aggressive oversold reading we got on friday because of that pretty one-directional move lower and people talking about the fact that there are a lot of these systemic strategies that real

mike santoli joins us to kick off the hour. >> seems good news is still good news for the moment evenhough we got to the point where we have this recognition that's grown and become pervasive that the u.s. economy didn't buckle, as many expected six months ago. that's manifested in the market. on a month-to-date basis, consumer discretionary equal weighted is up 10%, 11%. same with industrials. that's double what the s&p 500 is giving. that economic optimism or at least greater comfort with where we are in the economy is making its way into parts of the market that didn't anticipate russell up 1%. banks rallying home builders backing off a little tech has had its moment. looking down yields, ten-year treasury yield bumping up against the top of its range that could end up being something of a headwind as we go through this as valuations have gone higher. i'm also watching investor sentiment. we've gone from pervasive and deep skepticism at the end of this year to the more neutral spot i think bullishness has grown. it's less of a tailwind to have that persistent negativity out there t

mike, thank you. >> mike santoli. >>> as the s&p hits its lowest level of the month, the vix rises to almost the highest on the vix. mike wilson offers his take on the macro over the weekend he says the bear market rally that began in october has given way to a speculative frenzy based on a fed pause that is not coming is he right? joining us today, carlyle group's co-founder, david rubenstein it's great to have you thanks for joining us today. >> my pleasure for being here. thank you for having me. >> you've been pretty clear, even when the market sort of doubted it, that inflation would be persistent. do you regard the last few weeks as the market coming down to what chair powell has been trying to get across for months? >> i think the market is finally recognizing that inflation is not going away the fed is resolute. they made it clear several times recently that they really want to get the rate down to -- inflation rate down to 2%, not 3% i think the market takes the fed very seriously but that doesn't mean we're going to have a hard landing or so-called recession. it's too early

let'sbring in cnbc senior markets commentator mike santoli as the market is talking about the vix. >> the vix for sure. people definitely laying some bets with the vix at the lower end and treasury market's version of the vix, the move index also has -- has woken up in the last few weeks. last year really was the battle front for the markets. bond market volatility it reflected the fed sprinting to catch up with inflation to have a credible interest rate to restrain inflation at the same time the inflation data were coming out so wide of the mark remember we went ten straight months with inflation coming in above economists' forecast that showed you there was this very open-ended and uncertain bond market action that did relax after october we got peak narrative firmly in place, the market slotted into that theory for several months and now it's just picking up a little bit as we have adding some potential rate hikes to the fed plan for this year so, i think it all kind of reflects all the macro issues that we've had to contend with now, right now i wouldn't say it's at critical level

mike santoli with us as everybody adjusts to this new world where the fed hikes rates more than originally expected, and keeps them higher for longer. >> and equities are repricing against that it's interesting, as we got through january, if you ask people, what are you most worried about based on the actions this year so far retail investors getting overexcited about the market, we saw a real comeback in speculative stocks we're worried they're going back to that phase of recklessness and throwing money at an expensive market what we've seen since then, among private wealth management type clients at b of a is a rotation continuing into debt. now, i think a lot of that is a catch-up move. if you went back a year ago, retail investors, wealthy investors were underinvested in bonds relative to history. they hated bonds so, there is competition for equities right now it's a decent one. you have a nice yield cushion coming from safer bonds. i think that that rotation makes sense. i look at the silver lining, at least it means investor sentiment is not getting overoptimistic you've seen that i

data up almost 1.5% on the s&p markets -- senior markets commentator, mike santoli joins us mike, i would just throw in the retail sentiment continues to show that investors are getting more enthusiastic on the retail side, the put/call ratio people are looking at what does all of this tell us? >> ill tells you that there's been a relatively, i would say, stubborn and persistent sense of caution, for most of this year, that has completely given way and people have embraced the upbeat case. that includes people believing that, you know, a softer land is basically the central premise of where we go from here, at least for the rest of the year, for the economy, and then the idea that earnings growth is troughing, or rather, year over year earnings declines are hitting their worst levels right now and they're going to increase i'm not that caught up in the labeling of a bull market, based on very rigid standards. but is the market acting like a bull market? i would say "yes." multiples are expanding. that's what's happening in a bull market. you're seeing the market rotate as opposed to pull

senior markets commentator mike santoli is out in omaha, ahead of berkshire hathaway's meeting, withn reaction to jobs and whether you think it's justified. >> i think it is, sara. especially if the yield move starts to look like, you know, the near-term high is in for market yields, right around 470 on the ten-year. i think it's the latest in a series of things this week that the market was kind of tensed up for and then we got a not so bad response. that includes amazon, apple earnings as well as powell, even the employment cost index. it's a cause for concern but didn't blow out yields too much higher. i see the market trying to fight it out in the minor pullback range. the high for today was just another visit to the 50-day average. it didn't hold there. we did that once before on this run earlier this week. we'll see if we have more chopping around to do. in aggregate the earning story is coming through. yields, if they stay tame, are fine. i don't think it's about how much when we're talking about easing policy by the fed. it's more does the soft landing seem plausible. >> what

good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen, mike santolit post nine of the new york stock exchange jim and david have the morning off. premarkets not thrilled with that macro data today. uk gdp runs hot. our own july producer prices run warm highest annual headline since may. bonds under pressure yet again our road map begins with a slightly hotter than expected july ppi >>> also ahead, the tech stocks are in the midst of its worst stretch since december will the pullback be short lived? >>> president biden speaking out about china's economic challenges, calling the country a "ticking time bomb." >>> let's begin with the markets on this final trading day of the week as investors digest today's ppi number interesting, sara. i mean, 0.1 is not that dramatic we had a negative revision, but coming off the stellar reception to cpi yesterday, maybe it looks a little bit worse >> yeah, after a zero percent in june, you don't want to see it tick up to 0.3% in july, which is what we got, and we know producer prices are wholesale prices that feed in,

oh, mike santoli, i got my santolis and santellis confused?ong but you already can't tell us apart. i'll be seeing you at that conference with oscar munoz of american airlines. what's coming up on "squawk alley" >> well, anchor free has been in the virtual private network game for a long time but privacy online has a new life. really popular te uceo will be on to lls what's next on squooel. (indistinguishable muttering) that was awful. why are you so good at this? had a coach in high school. really helped me up my game. i had a coach. math. ooh. so, why don't traders have coaches? who says they don't? coach mcadoo! you know, at td ameritrade, we offer free access to coaches and a full education curriculum- just to help you improve your skills. boom! mad skills. education to take your trading to the next level. only with td ameritrade. >>> welcome back to "squawk on the street." markets are largely in the green today, every sector in the benchmark s&p 500 in positive territory, industrials leading the way in trading you look at nearly every sto

i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen and mike santoli markets are going to close the quarter on an upw. dow up 223 led by nike but also good action in banks, industrials and oil. >> our road map for the hour begins with the markets on this final trading day of the first half of the year look at laggards and leaders and what to expect for the rest of 2018 >> nike beats the street off the back of stronger growth in the north american market for the first time in years. we'll look at the company's surge as it leads the dow this morning. >>> and finally, financials surging and snapping a 13-day losing streak. why banks are feeling less stressed in today's session. >> first up, more economic data to chew on rick santelli for breaking consumer sentiment rick >> yes, june mid-month read gets tossed and our june final read the university of michigan sentiment read is 98.2 now our midmonth read was 99.3 so it looks like a bit of a disappointment, and it is. but in the record books, it's actually higher because our final read for the month of may was 98 even. so 98, now 98.2 is a bit lower than

i'm sara eisen with michael santoli and david faber live at post nine at the new york stock exchangetarted the nasdaq has gone positive names like cisco after a strong earnings report, interview that you guys had with the ceo last hour, apple, intel, all leading technology up, and the dough well off the lows. down about 235 at session lows and now down 71 points steve liesman spoke to fed governor lael brainard, perhaps a little dovish as we continue to digest the retail sales numbers in december, the weakest in march 1st and in trade, the march 1st deadline drawing closer, talks taking on a new sense of urgency secretary mnuchin and trade rep lighthizer both in china to talk with their counterparts. kayla tausche joins us now. >> reporter: larry kudlow was in the white house briefing room and gave reporters an assessment of how those talks are going after touching base with those negotiators. >> and i talked to the group they are covering all the ground they are hard at it. they are going to meet with -- with president xi so that's a very good sign, and they are just soldiering on,

joining us now our very own mike santoli with more.rare you're in a situation where it's hard to overstate the scale of what is going on. >> absolutely. simon. i mean, the extremity of these moves in yields like $10 trillion or perhaps more perhaps in government and corporate bond yields below zero. it's been animating all other asset markets this whole phenomenon, and it's fouling some relationships that have been in place for a very long time. for example, notwithstanding today's pullback in u.s. stocks, you've had stocks here near all-time highs at the same time that global bond markets, at least historically this message they'd be sending would be something like threat of deflation, very, very slow global growth. but it's really set off this ongoing chase for yield globally. and basically there's a shortage of safe investment income in the world sending people into things like stocks. i would point out the s&p 500 right now yields in terms of a dividend yield 2.15%. that's a pretty good advantage over the 10-year treasury yield. hi

mike santoli even used it. >> we're about 10% of the s&p having reported, thanks to b of a.cking a 6% beat at the moment they think we're probably going to end the quarter around a 3% beat this would be the highest close of the year on the s&p not quite the highest interday we did get to 4527 on friday, but the bulls clearly in command at the moment. >> always a beat that's why the revenue growth, the margins, which there have been warnings about, as inflation slows down we're also monitoring some health care moves. we have big news from eli lilly this morning new results from phase 3 trial showing that its alzheimer's treatments slowed early stage cognitive and functional decline from the disease by about 29% after 18 months versus a placebo. the company announcing today the drug has been submitted for fda approval and they expect a decision by the end of the year. joining us in a cnbc exclusive, eli lilly ceo and chair, david ricks. david, thank you for coming on how did these results measure up to your expectations >> great to be with you. it's an exciting day for so many

mike santoli is here at post 9.in the view of some. >> no, in fact, yesterday was the dog that didn't bite, the market didn't react. unless it's a broader perspective that says look if d.c. kind of gets bogged down and is at a stand still with regard to policy it's one fewer thing to kind of look out on the horizon and say, that's an offset to a fed that looks very resolute. to basically, you know, earnings that had been good but we had the best of the four quarters in terms of year over year growth. i think in terms of longing for that little bit of a policy boost it will detract and then branches at war with one another is never good. the unanswered question is if in a bigger way it filters into consumer attitudes and things like that. if we're back in the old familiar 2% economy, and if fed wants to get it moving again, bank stocks are down big again, because the rates have that flatter yield curve. that's one thing you have to absorb. >> one thing interesting is that the oil prices are up a percent and a half. w

mike santoli, great to have you on the desk, actually. morning that you're keeping an eye on? >> i do think it's the move in the bond market. ten-year treasury is at a four-week high. equity futures gain has been a little bit getmitigated. plus, of course, where is nvidia going to open? it's the eternal question. it looks flattish at the moment. >> and here it is. come on. the opening bell here. take a look. at the big board, toga. at the nasdaq, breakthrough t1d, a type i diabetes advocacy organization does the honors. more green on the board as you see at our realtime exchange, and as mike said, nvidia opening more or less flat. >> yeah. >> right now. >> it's still in this mode of, like, we put in this really aggressive piece a couple weeks ago. all the momentum stocks had a sharp little pullback. last week, assort of a weak bounce, and i compare it to what we saw back in march, a kind of rush higher in nvidia that had a crescendo, and the rest of the market had to do what it could to keep things together. morgan stanley trading desk th

mike santoli is here as well live at post nine at the new york stock exchange.om the site of that historic pace launch over the weekend. more in a moment and meantime the markets have turned early morning jitters about covid variants and slowing growth into green arrows it's flipped with the nasdaq which had premarket gains now down seven. >> and with us 30 minutes into the trading session here are three big movers that we're watching this morning. tencent music low they are morning as it becomes the latest facing a crackdown in china with reports it will be forced to give up exclusive rights to music labels by regulators that could happen fairly soon. and the banks, yields recovering a bit this morning we have got a slate of the biggest names that are going to be reporting earnings. you can see three of them right there. we will break down what to expect later this hour, kbw's tom michaud will be joining us and virgin galactic, shares higher after a successful test launch they are far lower after a successful test launch the reason is because they are offering

we'll see you in a bit, mike santoli. >>> when we come back, a fiat renault mega merger is possible.of two of the how the exit of two of the industry's to introducing products faster... to managing website inventory... and network bandwidth. mos giving you a nice big edge over your competition. that's the power of edge-to-edge intelligence. >>> it has been a busy morning in deal making fiat chrysler seeking a merger with renault it's the back story, the exit of the auto industry's most prominent figures that's driving the deal phil lib bow joins us on how the human factor helped propel this merger forward. >> two of the most colorful characters in the auto business who aren't in the business anymore, sergio marsh yoan and carlos ghosn who put together the nissan-renault alliance. most people this deal wouldn't have come together if these two gentlemen were around today. take a look at the deal following the merger offer from fiat chrysler. if these two automakers come together, it will create the world's third largest automaker in terms of sales. this is if it happens. here is what w

. >> let's start off with what we're seeing on the market mike santoli with us as we're off the lows credit suisse is in the eye of the storm. we're watching the credit default swaps, watching the share price, it's off the lows the trigger, first of all, as i said, slow-moving train wreck. this has been going on for months the trigger overnight appears to have been some comments from its saudi investor that has 10% saying, we're confident with the plan and we don't think we're going to need to increase the stake. >> the biggest investor saying that we think the bank is well capitalized, the market is trying to test whether that's true and see if it changes a chain reaction in terms of outflows i'm most focused on the ripple effects of that, on things like u.s. credit conditions from very tame levels, this is where we start with credit having not been a problem in the u.s. for a little while and it's softening up it's removing the ability of investors in the u.s. to say, look, the economically cyclical sectors have been working really well, the consumer's in great shape, we have these

senior stock commentator mike santoli with us. where is sentiment right now, given the nice rally? >> i think coming into this week -- we cooled off from a month ago. i think you got a little exub exuberant, probably in those single stocks. you saw the options volumes and everything get a little nutty in july. we backed off that following the market. now it's still, i think, everything has remained within the bounds of routine pullback. i think that's why you see the general slow and steady asset allocate, money still flowing into etfs and things like that. overall i think the interest in bond has been unmistakable. from retail. you have retail, grabbing the relatively high yields at multi-year highs. mostly in money markets as opposed to bonds. what's fascinating, yields until this morning kept going up, which means there's more sellers in bonds than buyers. can you never really figure out from the observable flows what's actually driving things, whether it's reacting or not. that's why i'm a little hesitant. today's reaction is pretty clear that stock investors or traders are mos

what does it all add up to mike santoli here to break it down this is such a mike santoli kind of story the fact that we've gone nowhere. nothing's really happened here type of story. but plenty has happened below the surface. we're trading right where we were two years ago in the on the s&p 500. and we've been tracking that same rally from the spring into the summer of 2021 the difference, yes, the earnings level projected for the next 12 months is the same as it was in january of last year. we have the same p\e multiple, therefore, i think the difference is, one, the nominal size of the u.s. economy is 10% bigger there's a little more certainty, we think, that those profits can come through, certainly because we've had our little earnings trough, margins have improved, again, the economy is bigger but also, back then, we had five percentage points of fed tightening ahead of us right now, we don't. committee don't know what the net effect of all of that will be, but we don't have it but i think it explains the last three or four weeks of the market kind of being in this sloppy, wait-an

mike santoli starting us off. >>> take a look at what the recent rise in oil might mean for inflationecision our next guest says a combination of reasons may push oil over creating downside for 2024 citi's ed morse is with us thanks for the time. you have had elements of a dovish message on crude for much of the year. is that changing wholesale >> we had a quite bullish view we weren't so far off in arguing it was likely to average around $83 a barrel, which is more or less where it has been averaging, although now it's being pulled out higher than that yes, we definitely have a view that supply will outweigh demand sooner rather than later in that sooner we're on the edge of refinery maintenance and that means there will be a lot of oil unsold in the market and filling up inventories in a way we had the summer with the cuts accelerated by saudi arabia and russia making sure that there was a pull down, an inventory draw we see inventory draw turning in the coming months into what we think is a certain inventory build wherever demand is going in all likelihood. >> what kind of on the d

mike santoli. our next guest says high rates are just one of the big potential downside risks for the u.s., but that we are still in better shape than europe and certainly china, at least in the near term. joining us this morning, apollo's chief economist torston slock. you've been consistent reminding us of the risks the consumer here faces. i wonder if you think macy's comments on delinquencies this morning is one micro reflection of that? you would think that's the case. monetary policy is working exactly as it was intended. when you raise rates, people start falling behind on their payments. this is not only corporates, it's also consumers. for that you do and you should expect to see consumer spending begin to slow down as a result of interest rates beginning to hit harder, in particular on households that have run out of savings and also households that generally have higher risks of being more vulnerable to rates going up. >> we just had a discussion about if the fed is not going to do this,

still, you have to check off more boxes here. >> mike, thank you mike santoli let's talk about banking fears svb, credit suisse, those fears may have eased a bit but our next guest says we could be looking at the calm before the storm predicting more issues will arise in the financial sector joining us is td cowen president, jeff solomon, now part of td as cowen company was bought congrats on that what sort of risks are lurking here this doesn't sound like you. >> well, i'm not sure there's a lot of risks i think what we're seeing here -- i agree with your previous comment, sara, the real issue is the slowdown in lending. i think the fed answered the bell here particularly as it relates to what happened with svb and some of the other banks, be in a position where you can provide liquidity and depositors can get their money when they want their money i don't expect there to be a banking crisis i think the regulators have done a really good job of responding to the situation as it presented itself the real issue is what kind of dampening effect this will have on the economy and whether o

mike santoli joins us. we know september is historically a tricky month. how much, though, does it have to do with the turn we're starting to see and the data? >> the calendar itself, sure. the data are what they are in terms of performance but it's want been bad when you have the market up, 10% or more. to me that's one of the things you keep in the back of your mind. the seasonal weakness was mostly felt in august. either the turn in the data or just the fact that we're not being able to escape the late cycle back drop. at least psychologically. when you have employment down to 3.5%. the fed has been tightening for a year and a half,ist time to wonder, how much longer can the cycle last? there's not much to observe in the numbers, a-ha, it's here, the soft landing is a fantasy, it's not going to happen. as many have said in the jobs number is consistent with a soft landing. who knows. consistent with descending into something else? i think the biggest risk in the near term is that longer term yields keep going up, and not just because the economy is stro

nasdaq was up on nvidia and ai enthusiasm let's bring in mike santoli. turn in the markets this morning. what happened? >> it's a little test of how much nvidia is really a bellwether and how much is a unique, singular situation i think we got a little of a verdict on that. nvidia right now, its gain is more than the overall gain in the s&p 500, so it shows you the rest of the market we are around these same levels. 5% pullback from the highs of three weeks ago. the other piece is the two-year treasury yield trading more or less at the cycle highs. other yields came in nothing in the revised gdp data from the fourth quarter, really changed the fed picture. i think we're still contesting with that same set of issues, pinched on both sides between too hot and too cold i don't think it's necessarily a total rethink of what's gone on in the market. could, in fact, show itself to be more of a dip we got this first pullback you can see a real cooloff in retail investor sentiment. >> as we move further and further into the week, has credit proven to be a better

i'm carl quintanilla with mike santoli. coach owner tapestry buying michael kors and capri holdings in an $8.5 billion mega deal tapestry ceo will join us. >>> white house unveiling a ban on u.s. investment in certain chinese tech companies deputy secretary treasury fills us in. >>> twilio shares up big with guidance boost ceo will join us with those results at the bottom of the hour. >>> markets off their highs of the morning. we did have a little relief trade higher the s&p was up more than 1.1% at the highs, right back to that 4500 level that's been sticky the dow is closer to its highs of the month, actually and the nasdaq outperforming a little bit today as bond yields remain fairly tame, carl. >> got the ten-year back to $3.95 for a moment the vix back below 15 for a moment signs we had gotten used to in july we relaxed a little. the weekly claims is digestible but there was an uptick. soft landing premise remains intact we'll see if the markets get tested on that assumption at this point cooler than expected inflatio

krnks senior market commentator mike santoli joins us. do you go along with that. >> i would argue the bears on the macro economy are highly convicted, but they're not so sure if the market has a lot left to give back. so, therefore, tactically, i think we have had this pattern of panic, flush, squeeze, feel like you need to chase because you're underinvested if this is going to run and if we have this benign scenario taking shape, and then the reversal when we get overbought we haven't been overbought but i think there's a sense that the market has been able to navigate around some of the rocks so far. right now we have this window, fed pauses until the first hike have been historically positive for the market i don't know what we believe - >> until the first cut >> exactly, the pause before the first cut has been this window where it worked. didn't work every other time in the last 35 years. the problem is, i think we're overanticipating everything that comes along the way 37 we overanticipated the tightening cycle on the way down so i

mike santoli the breadth of earnings beats may be wide, the leadership in the market is not. it's the narrowest stock leadership in an up market since the 1990s. year to date the s&p is up 8%. just 28 stocks account for 7% of that gain. six names account for 53% of that performance should that make investors worried? let's bring in mark lehman, a citizen's company. it is narrow leadership in terms of what's fueling this price action what does that say to you? >> well, there's no question, sara, you're right there's definitely been a narrowing of the leadership and a flight to quality and a flight to size. the moves are historic what we saw in some of the biggest tech names through this year and i think it shows more fear and i think a little complacency in terms of investors. let's remember these companies are on the forefront of innovation, particularly in technology, the likes of which we haven't seen in a long time we're just getting a glimpse for what that means for ai and the chatgpts of the world. i think that will fuel another interest in these stocks and that will wid

what is the next event that will meaningfully move the market that's the question we posed to mike santoli this morning. >> carl, look, typically boring markets are benign, usually the setup is you don't want to bet against it when you have that sideways movement. on the other hand, i think you can view it, to some degree, as the markets pause before an anticipated fed pause. it's really more a function of not people being confident or complacent, but being confused it's the old if you're not confused, you're not paying attention. why? you've seen some rolling over of a lot of the leading economic indicators but from a high level so the absolute level of output, the level of corporate revenues has not been all that bad, at least not bad enough to keep people really chased out of stocks more broadly. i do think there's going to be an issue that comes into play when it does come to metabolizing the fed outlook relative to what the economy is. we've been anticipating something like a recession for more than a year now i think at this point the not yet trade is still very much in place. even a

i'm sara eisen with mike santoli.ith us on set making the case for why the fed should be holding of

let's bring in mike santoli as the spw is down on the year. >> it's down on the year until august or september, it was easy -- and i was arguing, like, it's also in an uptrend. it's not as much as the mega caps, but at its peak up 25% from last october lows now a lot of damage has been done under the surface really you have to go back to the bottom in 1998, which was that long-term capital management panic to see a 20% gain in the s&p that was narrower than this one so, it shows you why a lot of people thought there was a lot of staying power in the last couple of days the market is trying to give relief to those parts of the market they are outperforming you see banks, small caps, oversold, tax loss selling by mutual funds, people trying to see if the seasonal and oversold conditions can maybe kick in a little bit but i also think it's an issue of earnings power. i mean, really, it's not just that, oh, we don't like the little ones. we like the big stocks it's the top stocks that also have the better earnings growth prospects. even though everyone, me included, points out how much c

mike santoli, thank you. carl >>> as you said, markets are turning around after that higher than expected november payroll number and the drop in unemployment this morning, four of my month low. that caused a move up in the ten-year as investors worry about higher for longer. joining us at goldman sachs trading floor is head of global banking and markets. thanks for having us, for hosting us it's great to have you >> thanks for coming down here and not making me come to the studio. >> it's a long walk. let's talk about the batch of data not just the jobs but what we got from jolts earlier in the week is the market right to second guess some of these? >> i think it's goldilocks if you're sitting there and you're the federal reserve and look at the pace of incoming data, you're getting kind of what you wanted. which is certainly job openings are coming down but you still have job creation. so growth will continue to hang in there because the u.s. economy is continuing to create jobs but that's happening at a ti

i'm sara eisen with mike sa santoli.the inflation report and why he says the tech selloff could be as much about the japanese yen as it is about earnings. singing my tunes. >>> plus, a more stable a.i. play for volatile times. why raymond james is raising its apple price target. that analyst is with us in a moment. >>> imax surging

are we back on track as mike santoli suggested?d, even more interested in the retail sales report yesterday, because the consumer spending numbers for the couple months before that had come in quite strong and stronger than i was hearing in the marketplace. so i was testing my own thinking. >> right. >> i think when you take the retail sales of yesterday and look at the three-month numbers you say that's what i'm hearing in the marketplace, which is, good but not great, consumer spend. that was one piece of the puzzle which is how hot is demand. on the flainflation side it cam off the numbers of the prior side, it's still not where we're getting target. most importantly, i would say back to where i was going, goods, you know, zero to deflationary, services and shelter inflationary. you like to imagine that mix would come back more to where it was before covid. >> my colleagues are anxious to ask questions here, but i want to do one more before i go where i give it up here, is it your opinion that this, the consumer, and growth need

mike santoli, thank you. >> kelly, you have a long day. good luck. >> we both do. >> god speed. >> andrew made it. make sure you join us on tuesday. i forgot "squawk on the street" is next ♪ ♪ >>> good morning on a friday good morning and welcome to "squawk on the street. i'm david faber with jim cramer. carl quinn la is in the wtanill winter -- he's at the winter olympics in pyeongchang, south korea. been be doing an amazing job covering so many aspects of that let's take a look at futures as we wrap up this week been a good week for the markets. if you're long, the markets are rebounding dramatically from the lows that we saw made up almost 60, 70% of the losses that we saw in the s&p. european markets have also had what you might expect, a good week also. this morning no exception. green across the board ten-year yield note has been a focus. today didn't care down 2.86. there's a look at wti back above -- back above 60 solidly this morning >> yeah. >> all right let's get to our roadmap this morning. it does start with the market comebac

. >> this is the time of the day the market recovers from the lows of the morning, as mike santoli told us. not seeing it much today it's being led by defensives those are the stocks working today, staples and health care what's weighing down, tech, financials, industrials, materials. we'll kick off the day talking about financials, particularly charles schwab posting on monday, bank deposits down 11% from the previous quarter and pausing their stock buyback promise citing turbulence across the sector and uncertainty. joining us to talk about this and more in a cnbc exclusive, charles schwab ceo walt bettinger. thank you for making the time. nice to see you. >> good morning, sara. thanks for the invitation. it's wonderful to be with you again. >> we have a lot to work through. let's start on deposits because i mentioned the quarterly decline. 30% down from where they were last year. i know the market expected numbers like this, but it doesn't feel like there's a ton of confidence that that issue is over is it? >> well, what we've seen is we've seen investors make the very natural move t

mike santoli here.nother way to look at this flattening yield curve we talk about it in terms of gaps of yields, which is what it is but it also represents rallies in some maturityies thre different slices of etfs, long-term bonds over a one-month period, 20 years and beyond, that's the most duration 4% in the last year or so. the very short term, from like one month out to three years basically steady those prices are always pretty steady in the middle there is the ishares, iei it's the rally in five-year notes that are driving this story. they're down so much in the last, let's say, less than a month from 303 to 281, way more than other maturities are down basically there's been a positioning shock in there, a lot of people short the middle of the curve but also if the message, if there is a message, is that we can see the end of the fed's tightening campaign coming into view, that five-year area is where you're probably going to have perceived value. yeah, we'll do a hike or two in december and maybe

that's the skip, not the pause sane air yoe the market taking it well, if you look at least, and mike santoli would say this, at the major averages, driven by tech. >>> the president and the speaker with that tentative deal over the weekend but the drama far from over. kayla with the latest. >> reporter: good morning. president biden and speaker mccarthy in full-on sell mode to try to shore up the 218 votes needed to pass what's called the fiscal responsibility act in the house. they each briefed their party over the weekend the house rules committee is set to meet later today around 3:00 p.m. to advance the bill, though two republicans have said they're against it they can afford to lose no more than two, leading to questions about how mccarthy would respond if that did happen the house would then be expected to vote after that the senate would begin its proceedings after it passes the house. but some members in the senate have vowed to slow walk the deal we will see if that drags out into the weekend asked about the chorus of criticism, president biden said any skeptics should talk to him d

let's bring in mike santoli, who's working overtime which says a lot. >> if that's the case, this quarter, the one we're going to hear about is the trough for earnings growth. that's pretty bullish. i think that might represent an upside surprise to what people have mostly been anticipating, which is a slow leakage lower of earnings forecast. the 2014 numbers are the big ones in a few months that's going to be going into everybody's forward estimates. it's showing like it should be almost a return to record profit growth again that's how the math starts to work it would be a good thing i don't know what that involves in terms of assuming what gdp level gets us there, but it definitely -- the market has been able to handle the cutting of earnings forecast during the quarter itself the last three quarters this quarter since january 1st, 7% decline in the anticipated level of earnings growth that was the same as the prior two quarters and the market sort of had its expectations adjusted enough and it wasn't a disaster i think everyone is wondering if we have a cliff or a plateau. >> we've be

the name is outperforming peers year-to-date let's bring in our own mike santoli.l they run it through a stress nest which revenue growth basically gets cut in half >> it is one of those calls that says, sure, you might be concerned that the consumer is going to weaken into a recession, but maybe it's mostly price data and if you're worried about all of the consumer credit names, maybe amex is better positioned. you can see why it's a little bit of a tough sell in terms of a catalyst, but bigger picture, the stock is trading roughly, maybe below its average valuation on what they're suggesting a reasonable earnings estimate is. the stock is definitely over the last two years held up better than the likes of capital one, discover, and sinkynchrony but to me it almost explains why you've seen the ai names dominate it's like, what's priced in, how much might it soften up. it's all about hopes and prayers and growth, as opposed to trying to make that assessment of exactly where we are in pricing in a potential recession >> they point to some expense lovers that can sti

mike santoli joins us to talk about that and the sideways drift for a couple weeks. >> yeah. expected and, therefore, familiar and easy to digest decision on powell we have a seasonally strong period here into thanksgiving week and we're coming out of this lull as you mentioned two weeks. the s&p does nothing below the surface a lot more rocky and i do think right now we're kind of grabbing some of that standard seasonal upside in one big bite today even today if you look within the market it's not uneven what we have had for a while is another one of niece phases where it's a top heavy, fairly narrow rally, and only certain ones let's be clear like nvidia, the ev stocks, apple at this point and not, for example, paypal, square and fin techtech and things like that it could be another one of these benign rotations we're coming out of it right now. what is interesting about the market's reaction to the powell announcement is that it sort of goes against that notion that all the market creates is more dovishness it wants the predictable response function that we know powell has

let's bring in cnbc senior markets commentator mike santoli. the cuts get pushed out, but i think consumer confidence, the first real data point we're getting in the month of february off strong january, being a little weaker, could be significant. >> it could be again, consumers' estimation of the present condition is actually better than expected. they continue to say, we're not sure wages are high enough. the entire macro and fundamental picture has been elongated whether it's the expected earnings erosion, hasn't really accelerated. you had that push off how long this rate-hiking cycle will continue we had a revival of risk-taking coming into this year. there was a change of character in this market and the question is, how much of february leave of that? if you go back to the peak of all the markets february 2nd, things were looking frothy, overexcited. since then you've had the cloud stocks down more than 10%, ark down 10%, heavily shorted retail names, crypto. the question is, could we cool off the overheated stuff while leaving the broa

good stuff, mike mike santoli this morning kicking us off i've got a news alert on meta. the company is responding now to this "washington post" piece, suggesting that they're getting ready for another round of layoffs. our julia boorstin has details hi, julia. >> that's right. a meta spokesperson, andy stone, just tweeting out, with all due respect, you got this one wrong, saying that "the washington post" headline that -- saying that meta plans to cut thousands more jobs is just not accurate they do say that they have been consistently indicating that they will be doing more cuts, more tightening, but that the thousands number is simply not right. they have said repeatedly that they have been looking for teams and projects that may no longer make sense mark zuckerberg called 2023 the year of efficiency, but he responds to the headline, saying that the thousands of jobs is just not accurate. and just sort of indicates that those journalists should be looking back at some other commentary meta has made in the past several months, about his efforts to do overall tightening

senior markets commentator mike santoli is with us. does feel like stocks are playing a catch-up to bonds, which were ahead on the higher for longer. >> to a degree, yeah. we're sort of arguably in that test that's under way. the s&p 500 about 0.50% where it bottomed out in mid-august. it's also the lower quarter ep end of stocks are waiting to see if longer term treasury yields were, perhaps, topping out around those october highs. now weave clearly broken higher. what happened with the fed yesterday, even in broad strokes, as we've been saying, not a radical change. they're done or near done. any moves come slowly, they'll be careful. they did remove those potential rate cuts, however anything longer than six months is all kind of hazy on the horizon. what it did do, though, powell said, we don't know how restrictive we are. he doesn't want to get dirty with the neutral rate. you know when you see it. how do you see it? when the economy slows down. that's the message the economy is taking away. the higher yields are rubbing against t

mike santoli joins us as we try to monitor if we're seeing a relative calm. is it a ring fence or the ups and downs we've been experiencing >> i think the latter is probably the safest assumption i say that not because there has to be some other shoe to drop immediately. it seems as if there's enough stability created by the measures over the weekend to not press your bets you might have executed last week if you're leaning against the bank stocks and thought mega cap tech was the only thing that could work in this environment, you've had reason to back off both of those lags and essentially unwind that trade. that's what we're seeing so far today. other things of note, bond yields are not moving a lot. they're firming up that's maybe a slight backing up the real fear trade that had been in the market also the positioning trap that a lot of people who are bearish on bonds found themselves finally oil, i wouldn't lose sight of the fact we're kind of breaking down to new, call it 15-month lows in crude oil the macro story is not that it seemed very sunny but it

mike santoli meantime, moments ago, activision releasing its earnings early, as you know. the uk blocking that deal with microsoft. steve kovach's watching it steve? >> this is a surprise. they were supposed to release the earnings tomorrow after the bell, but i'm told by a spokesperson activision released it now, after the cme decision rejecting the deal, which is likely going to kill the deal overall. let me run over the numbers real quick, it is a beat on the top and bottom lines as you can see, not doing much to alleviate the stock here. it's on epps, it's 60 cents adjusted coming in versus the 52 cents estimated by the street. revenue is also a beat at $1.86 billion versus $1.79 billion estimated. and then just some really strong commentary here against the decision, activision release calling the cme decision disproportionately, irrational, and inconsistent with the evidence also saying they're going to back microsoft as they go through the appeals process with the cma, but that is likely not to play out in microsoft's favor and activision is looking more and more li

mike santoli is back with us watching some of the action and watching whether the bulls hang on to thisurdy month. the s&p 500 tried to use 4,400 as a floor it has acted okay. now you are seeing a cooldown in industrials, a big leadership group coming into today. they're underperforming. you have a moment where we got what we wanted out of the inflation number it seems the burden of proof is on people who feel as if inflation will be a problem, at the same time recession is right out in front of us those two things seem less likely now the question is what the market has gotten to at this stage. you see 4,500. we visited it today. seasonals start to not be as friendly in mid-july we bottomed on a really bad inflation number in october. it's time to take them off >> the other moments rallied this year, it's coming alongside a big drop in yields and in the u.s. that are. both moving in the right direction for stocks as the soft landing scenario gets more profitable >> the fed is just about done if not already done that's the tone of market today for sure >> goldman saying the used car dyn

i'm carl quintanilla with mike santoli.ors and capri holdings in an $8.5 billion mega deal tapestry ceo will join us. >>> white house unveiling a ban on u.s. investment in certain chinese tech companies deputy secretary treasury fills us in. >>> twilio shares up big with guidance boost ceo will join us

i am carl quintanilla with morgan brennan, mike santoli, post 9 of new york stock exchange jon fortte understatement of the week. major averages look to claw back some of monday's losses. in one week, saw the worst christmas eve ever, biggers inter day do