he may feel emboldened to use surrogates, asymmetric mansur conventional force to seize territory in the extend influence or assault neighbors. and whether tehran intends it or not, groups like hezbollah macie iran's atomic arsenal as a nuclear umbrella for more aggressive action against israel and others. mishandle brinksmanship or nuclear emboldened aggression may escalate deliberately or not to nuclear use. compounding this danger is a real risk that others in the middle east may decide to acquire their nuclear arsenals. kennedy proliferates including egypt, saudi arabia and from perhaps the nato ally most exposed. these countries could be motivated by their leaders desire for security, influence or nearly quit each. no cruncher he aspires to middle east leadership will want to be the last to have nuclear weapons. now nuclear arms race is not inevitable, nor would it necessarily be fast. with the exception of israel and iran, most countries in the region are far from having bomb making capabilities. but we must prepare for surprises. remember how in the mid-1980's, saudi arabia su