kollar / kollar wealth advisors. let's go over your previous picks. is your goal with the short etf to get rid of them as soon as you see a spike up? yes it is. it is a tool to hedge your portfolio that is it. the u.s. dollar index bottomed out in 2008 and 2009. are you still holding on to uup and what is your forecast for it? very little uup right now but we will own more of it in the future. what happens is deleveraging. the government is actually trying to stimulate the economy. the problem is it's deleveraging faster than the government can put money into the economy. it sounds crazy but that means there are fewer dollars. so you are not bullish at all on the dollar index? i am but not as much as before. we are looking as there is a retraction in the market to purchase more. let's go over some new ideas now. number one the federated prudent bear fund it is bear x. right now it is around $5. do you have an exit price on that? no i have really what is an entry price first. i want to explain how the tool works but we really do not have enough time. it is a hedge for people who are active investors and unfortunately it is expensive to purchase but it moves very very quickly. you should look into it and own at least a portion of it so you can own it push a button and leave some more money in there as the market retraces. you have to get out very quickly though? you have to be in it before it moves, if you look at the charts it takes off like a rocket. what is your forecast on the dow? i think it could go to the april highs of this year which is about 11 2 or something like that so don't be surprised. there was a little head fake there on the upside but we are unfortunately looking for a major retraction in the market between now and the end of the year. a major retraction like 20 percent possibly? more than that actually. it could be as high as 40%. let's talk about your second pick. you are bearish on real-estate. how are you playing that? we polled a lot of real estate investors and we drive around and actually talk to realtors both in commercial and residential. what we are finding out is that there is a huge supply that they cannot unload. they are happy they have all the contracts to represent these people or institutions but there is nothing moving right now. so you're looking at the short real-estate the etf, ticker symbol rek. and you are buying that? yes that is correct. that is a inverse fund. it goes up as the real-estate market goes down? yes that is correct. that has been in a very strong downtrend. it is about 85 percent strong downtrend. that is when you want to be there to actually purchase it. so it's becoming oversold. i want to go over the numbers for the existing home sales. they are down 32% from the peak in 2007. how much worse can it get? it is hard to believe but truth sometimes is the best medicine. we are actually looking at the market to go down another 20 percent. that is in general across the united states we are not talking about specific areas. that is pretty extreme. we are getting back to real value if you look at all the trends historicaly we will be right back where we need to be. another hedge you have is you are bullish on gold. yes i am. what are you buying here to be bullish? as far as gold goes, and there are a couple ways to do it, gld is one tool you can use. it is not like physically owning gold so you have to be careful with etf's. we are however looking for it to continue up even six months after the market retraction. very soon after you will want to get out of it. thank you very much for your ideas mark kollar / kollar wealth advisors. and still to come in the show could we see a pick up in volatility? we'll find out after this break. after this break. travel advisories to small business loans. retirement savings to medicare coverage. id theft protection to contacting elected officials. student loans to taxes on-line. whether you have information to get or ideas to give, usa.gov is the official place to connect with your government. from surplus car auctions to finding a new job, our new mobile apps will keep you updated on the go. so from marriage records to passport applications, veteran's benefits to birth certificates, patent applications to energy saving eas, product recalls to home buying tips, check out usa.gov. because the country runs better when we stay connected. let's take a look at the vicks with jamie tyrrell / group one trading. last week you had some big heavy volume happening with options trading on the volatility index 145,000 contracts trading. what does this week look li