. >> professor robert kaplan. >> and the latest on the situation in greece. fall out from greece could pale in comparison with the italian melt down in the bank system. how big is this getsing? >> if you look at greece economy it is small. italian economy is large. one of the biggest in the world and look at what italy has done in terms of borrowing and the amount of debt on the balance sheet it is huge. and the problem is, kaplan pointed it out. they eat their own cooking. the banks own the sovereign debt of the imperiled country. >> italy has more debt and so they do. and here's where the global contagian comes in the u.s. banks, we think. underwrote the insurance policies on that. if there is a real triggering event and real default. 50 percent here and cut the greece solution is not a triggering event. but if there is a default, they have to make that money good and that's when the u.s. banks have to pay for this. it is so critical to avoid and muddle through and go to panic mode. panic mode is when there is a real default. >> panic mode is bailout, bailo