under sequestration, 472 billion. i think what we'll see in february, what they'll come out with is the budget they're planning right now basketball, 525 billion. >> what they're going to get out of congress ultimately, after the sequestration, in game, if you will, during the lame duck session is probably going to be closer to the 470 than the 525. >> jim? >> this is going to be -- a hard one to guess because i -- i really don't think these guys have any idea where they're going. and everything -- >> none of players. >> so who -- i'd remember guess when iran will get a nuclear weapon. >> more certitude that the israelis may do something about that! >> none of us would guess we wouldn't have seen a budget from this government, a defense authorization act that, we would see something like the budget control act and that somebody would put something like sequestration on the table some all the things that none of us thought would ever happen have happened some we can sit around and say the logical choice is probably sla

[inaudible] >> sequestration, yeah, sequestration right now and i should say fy11 the defense budget enacted by congress the base defense budget not including the wars here is $530 billion. under sequestration in fy13, it would drop to approximately $472 quintillion plus or minus a couple of billion because congress can move money around between accounts a little bit during that time. [inaudible] >> a if you adjust for inflation the base defense budget in 2007 was i believe 473 billion when you would just for inflation. so we are talking sequestration would take it back to basically the same level in 2007. >> he said things are more expensive now. what do you say to that? >> it sure. things have gotten more expensive. five years of gum buy-in costs in dod are increasing faster than inflation. the reason for a lot of that cost growth though his personnel costs. pay has gone up faster than inflation. the cost of health care has gone up faster than inflation and these are things that in all fairness to their arguments are hard to roll back. especially if you are going to roll back five

sequestration is the lower line of there. the way the law is written, when sequestrating goes into effect, you take an equal amount, divide up the roughly $500 billion in cuts it mandates of the next nine years. you divided equally, the cuts are apply equally across the years. that is why the budget drops suddenly and then continues relatively flat over the rest of that decade. that means if sequestration actually goes into effect, in 2013, the defense budget would drop to the level was in 2007. when i look at this, it is not the depths of the cuts, it is the abruptness with which they occur. the way the law as currently written, you are not allowed to move moneymoney between years. you can move money between accounts within the budget cap but not between years. this presents several challenges for dod. the two major challenges are personnel related costs and acquisition costs. certain personnel costs on the left side here. this shows all the different components of military benefits that were in the fy12 budget request. i wa

i want to move on to sequestration and summarize, i believe sequestration would be a nightmare for our national security. if it kicks in, i hope it will be quickly superseded by subsequent action in 2012, so we do not start to see the kinds of cut that would otherwise be necessary. there is some talk out there, including from one of the republican presidential candidates, that what is happening now is not really cuts. that is wrong. real cuts are happening as a consequence of the august deal. that will result in about $400 billion in 10 years in savings, according to the cbo. in other words, we are $350 billion below what would we be needed to keep up with inflation before sequestration. then you add on the cuts, roughly another half trillion over 10 years for the military, and you end up with an annualized budget that is about 20% less than is today, but it is even more of a reduction because i have not included war costs. those are assumed to come down anywheray. those are savings that the congress cannot claim for deficit targets. that is appropriate. the pentagon should not be clai

. >> sequestration. >> sequestration. >> sequestration. >> jon: ah. ( laughter ) failure would trigger sequestration, a process that combines congress' least-favorite things -- sequestering and castration. ( laughter ) ( applause ) and that is what makes this process-- really, when you hear that word, you almost automatically cover your genitals. i don't know why. and that is what makes this deficit reduction process different from all the other processes. congress itself has created a mechanism by which failure to accomplish its goal would trigger catastrophic, automatic cut. it is ironclad, a decree sent down from sinai themselves. i'd like to see them wiggle their way out of this one. >> the sequestration is not engraved on golden tablets. ( laughter ). >> jon: i'm sorry, say what now, there's a trigger. triggers can't be untriggerred. >> triningers can be untriggerred. >> lindsey graham said he'll introduce a bill to repeal the trigger. >> senator toomey is suggesting maybe there will not be those automatic cuts. >> jon: you know, congress, this is why people don't like you. ( laug

no, susan, sequestration is not an option.t it tells the world and tell our country that we have people that cannot work together in washington, d.c. this is the problem. this is the problem nationwide. all members are beholden to the party, the party ideology, and what happens from there. they were put in there to do a job and they are paid a nice, handsome salary to do a job. get it done. this is a prime call to find independent people who actually want to do what's best for the american people. we have to work together. we have to stay strong. otherwise, we are on the verge of the rise and fall of the roman empire. host: thank you. let me go back to the opinion page of "the washington post." an argument that sequestration is not a bad thing. "succeeding by failing" is the headline of this piece. "the power in future negotiations would shift towards those seeking a balance between cuts and taxes." host: jurors will also writes about the committee and the deadline. the high cost of more. here's some of what he writes. "the la

it's on to sequestration. >> shannon: pat toomey seems to suggest in his comment on "fox news sunday" and other places that if it got to sequestration, there are members of congress who would be willing and expecting to possibly try to find a way to maneuver around it. it kicks in cuts for a number of things including defense. charles, do you think they would get away with something like that? the president said he would veto a plan like that. >> the cuts, especially defense cuts will only kick in, in 2013. the president may be a bystander at no point. there is no way, even if you were in office, congress could not reject it. they have saying it's going to end military and the republicans opposing it as well. a way it will be ultimately found that will undo it. that is one of the reasons why the pressure is off. the trigger everybody understands are not real. congress can do whatever it wants. it can unlock the padlock, i think however i would not be as even-handed in the portioning the blame here. we heard from toomey and two conservative senators on the republican side. they're will

that is what would happen if sequestration order takes effect. sequestration is an abstract idea that only washington can come up with. it means if the super committee fails, then other cuts will take place, primarily the part of our budget that affects most americans. it is the part of the budget that even the tea party folks would understand when they saw that there gun checks were going slowly. it is the kind of cuts that theicans who don't see benefits of government every day, but would not get active weather reports -- accurate weather report because we cannot afford to replace satellites. those are the kinds of things that i think what motivates most members of congress in washington to get this done. it is doing that. what i want to do in our proposal is really three things. first, describing our plan, why it might work to avoid sequestration and why we think that would be a success. third way strongly supports having a grand bargain between democrats who would go for entitlement reform and republicans who would agree to increase revenue t

happen so sequestration actually doesn't go into effect. >>trace: not a lot of forcing going on in washington right now. we will see you later, thank you both. it is get away day. a new report shows more people are expected to hit the roads this holiday and pay more to get their thanksgiving dinner. 42.5 million are expected to drive, fly, or ride the rails to spend time with family this year. that is the highest number since the beginning of the recession. and travelers are getting hit in the wallet. air is up 20 percent from last thanksgiving. >> i spent $1,200 to get to florida which normally is very cheap, but it was very expensive. >> lists are up. planes are full. the airlines have cut back on their capacity which has impacted the availability to get better deals. we also are seeing prices creep up in the hotel business, too. >>trace: and aaa reports 90 percent of people who are headed out today are expected to drive and they will, too, get hit with higher gas prices. steve brown is like at chicago's o'hare airport, any travel headach

sequestration cut everything, so that is one more way to take a shot at sequestration. thank you for being here, and happy thanksgiving. [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2011] >> tomorrow, we will give you an update on what is ahead now that the joint deficit reduction committee has failed to reach a deal before its deadline. we will talk to david walker. after that, melanie sloan on congress and the influence of money. later, a number of conservative organizations will come together to talk about their support for not raising taxes to reduce the deficit. live coverage at 10:00 eastern. up next, a presidential candidate newt gingrich in new hampshire weighs in on deficit reduction committee and his campaign. then sanctions against iran, and after that the u.s. postmaster general talks about the future of the postal service zeroth. >> the name of the greatest people that have ever trendless earth, i draw bowline -- i draw the line and i say segregation now, segregation tomorrow, and segregation for

i think now that congress faces the sequestration, the automatic cuts, i think we need to look at that. i anticipate that my colleagues on the other side of the aisle will immediately rally around preventing any cuts to defense and shifting the burden to domestic programs and other programs such as medicare, social security, medicaid, education. i think that will be the first test. the issue of fairness is important, but if we get into protecting that one aspect and not dealing with the overall issue that we are facing in this economy, that we're facing by having to generate savings and revenue, congress is going to miss the boat. the ineptness that the american public has seen on the part of this congress is going to be magnified. there is an inability to create real jobs and to deal with the economic crisis in front of us. >> you said we should take a look at the sequestration? you want to be sure that the sequestration of defense spending is reduced, it should be done proportionally with domestic spending as well? >> i want to see domestic spending protected. i think it is unfair to

. >> sequestration goes in effect, as it will now.have to ask ourselves are we willing to live with that? if we are not is there a way to have a shared sacrifice moving forward? >> i think you will see in coming months we will offer proposals that would be alternatives to the cuts. >> added complication is trying to do it in an election year. mccain says there are nondefense places to slash spending. >> we are reducing defense spending and doing it dramatically. i think we should do it away with the agriculture subsidiaries. >> senator jeff sessions has done an analysis showing the disproportionate impact of cuts on defense spending while the major players in terms of the long-term debt entitlements are not touched. sessions calls that unwise and dangerous. shannon? >> thank you, mike. >> shannon: let's get thought on politics from behind this with analyst brit schume. good evening. >> good evening. >> shannon: all right. so these sequestration cuts coming to the defense program come on top of $450 billion in other cuts we knew were c

some of the sequestration is the forcing. sadly, but i guess i want your thoughts on are we still currently in business as usual? i don't see the political will on the hill to really tackle these tough issues. >> i will take it briefly and alice me what to comment as well. you mentioned, series. my recommendations essentially e eliminate them. again, i'm not going to -- you haven't read anything at vignette. again, to get to 400 billion in the tenure cuts coming in again, 350, 400 depending which baseline use was mandated by the august part of that deal. to get to that level of savings you've got to do the kind of things, greg, you're mentioning. on top of all the effort things i've mentioned today, there is not 400 billion in easy identifiable waste to just scalpels of the defense budget no matter what some people want to go around town cleaning. there may be that much waste in the defense system which meant that it is marbled into the muscle in such a way that it is going to take a lot of effort to develop and so in the pro

while investors remain mostly focused on europe, there's sequestration here in the u.s. it sounds like a word only a government bureaucrat could love. sequestration is another name for more than $1.2 trillion in automatic cuts coming to the federal government budget in 2013. darren gersh explains why markets are watching sequestration and why you might want to as well. >> reporter: if you own stock in or work for a company that makes something for the defense department, the sequester is your biggest enemy. >> the defense contractors are going to go to war against each other to try to hold on to their contracts, but overall, it is bad for the sector and if the sequester is not changed, profitability and employment is going down in the defense industry. >> reporter: in 2013, defense takes a $55 billion cut under the sequester. that's 10% of the defense budget. medicare is trimmed by $11 billion. farm support payments and many other smaller programs will be reduced by a total of $5 billion. the rest of government takes a $39 billion hit, with the biggest reductions coming

sequestration goes into effect in 2013. now that seems a year and a month away. but as we get closer and closer and closer, the pressure on both parties to come together in the middle, provided we don't remove one of those knives, like taking defense off the table, is going to be stronger and stronger. second, the republican primaries will end right now the republican primary the candidates and then their senate and congressional supporters to the right. you know, all of them said they wouldn't be for a dollar of revenue for $10, in return for $10 of spending cuts. but once you get a nominee, they have to move to the middle. that's where the american people are. and third, is people go home, they're going to hear from their members, solve this problem. their constituents, solve this problem. so my view is, we have a really good chance, basic a along the outlines of simon is -- the broad outlines of simpson/bowles, you couldn't vouch for any specific, but the broad outline of $1 trillion in revenues, $1 trillion in mandatory savings, and $1 trillion in discretiona

the sequestration -- everything gets cut. which is a stupid way to do it. >> and congress would have a year to under this. -- to undo this. do you think that is a distinct possibility? >> they will be worrying about what is happening to our interest rates by then. this is coming quickly. we do not have a year before the first signs of that site impacting us. >> on that note, what do you think happens? this thanksgiving comes and goes -- >> we get another debt downgrade, and rightly so. >> the gang of six -- that group never did produce publicly a piece of legislation. >> we never intended to. what we were trying to do was push the discussion, and there are discussions now about putting that back together in case it fails. >> as you watch what happens with the super committee, do you have any regrets that the gang of six did not go any further with its proposals? >> no, first of all, remember, the gang of six is six senators. not sanctioned, not anything. but 51 senators right now would really like to see something gets done.

>>neil: you thing it will come down do that, the sequestration? >>guest: i'm afraid they will do a punt, which will come up with $600 billion or $700 billion and then they will say we will get tax revenues we don't have time but we will send that to the committee and demand they do it. total punt. punt, yes. >>neil: nancy pelosi is mocking rick perry as he challenges her to a debate. >>guest: he asked if i could debate in walk on monday, and it is my understanding, that such a letter has come in, and monday i will be in portland in the morning, and i will be visiting some of our laboratories in california in the afternoon, that's 2:00, i cannot remember the third thing ... >>neil: don't mess with texas. rick perry is next. [ gong ] strawberry banana! [ male announcer ] for a smoothie with real fruit plus veggie nutrition new v8 v-fusion smoothie. could've had a v8. new v8 v-fusion smoothie. [ale announcer ] 's simplest.. p while a body in motion tends to stay in motion. staying active can actually ease arthritis symptoms. but if you have arthritis

push back the deadline or, get this, throwing out the scalded sequestration kick in. congress makes the rules, so as we said here, congress can change or break the rules and now, given impetus that he would veto the automatic cuts and does not like the a to entitlements so a deal is not happening but a likely credit downgrade could be and moodies will spans if they punt. and it could go down at thanksgiving. as all of the guys collectively belch. former republican house majority leader dick armey says it is time for congress to suck it up and make the tough decisions. but, they are not doing that. does that worry you? >>guest: well, it worries me. first of all we have an absence of presidential leadership. the democrats particularly in the senate are refusing to do anything as they did on their own budget. what the republicans in the super committee are offering is a good offer and it is an offer that realizes the first necessity of reducing the size of government and, secondly, growing the private sector, but there is a frustration and our activists are frustrated, t

that is the purpose of sequestration. >>neil: some of your colleagues are gets antsy.rent cuts not to abrogate the concept but to find an alternative. rather than go back on the whole concept of sequestration i would say go forward, say, if we don't want to cut this, this is where we will cut. and hike i said, you could reform one program, reform medicaid and you can meet your entire target by reforming one program. >>neil: senator, always good to see you, be well. now that they cannot set up camp, bring on the catch -- campfires? congratulations. congratulations. congralations. today, the city of charlotte can use verizon technology to inspire binesses to conserve energy and monitor costs. making communities greener... congratulations. ... and buildings as valuable to the bottom line... whoa ! ... as the people inside them. congratulations. because when you add verizon to your company, you don't just add, you multiply. ♪ discover something new... verizon. a vacation on a budget with expedia. make it work. booking a flight by itself is an uh-oh. see if we can "stitch"

i hate to see us go that way, sequestration is ugly. i hate what it does for defense and that is why the committee needs to deliver on the task we gave them. >>neil: if it does not we are approaching thanksgiving and there is no deal, you have until the end of the year to secure something here, then the automatic cuts kick in. but at that point rating agencies could downgrade u.s. debt and moody's who do what s&p did and downgrade our aaa rating. would you back that move? would you say it would be warranted? >>guest: well, at the level the committee is talking about we are under threat of another downgrade of our credit rating so we still have that threat. we have not fixed anything long term. i came here to offer solutions and a last the new freshman claim came to fix problems and we have tough votes and we need the fortitude to do it. >>neil: as a tea party favorite i want your thought on the occupy wall street movement. we are waiting to hear what a judge will allow them to reoccupy lower manhattan. compare their grievance with famil

>>> the sequestration is not engraved on golden tablets. it's aspiration.ose of us and i think we have sufficient support to prevent those kind of cuts being enacted because of the impact it would have on the national security. >> i don't want to take the pressure off to reach a deal by talking about avoiding or eliminating effects of sequestration if there is no deal. >> we need to take a big step in the right direction. i'm going to do everything i can to ensure that the supercommittee is successful. >> the supercommittee up on capitol hill has to come up with $1.5 trillion in cuts by thanksgiving. or this trigger gets put in effect. half of this from defense spending and the other half from domestic cuts. you heard senator mccain and others saying maybe not really. meantime, on the economy, and on the president's job approval, newest poll out, "washington post"/abc. 44% approval, 53% disapproval. here is an interesting other aspect to the poll. who do you trust to do a better job on the economy? there you see it's tied now between president obama and rep

it is a so-called sequestration.etween us and another credit downgrade. but republican senators john mccain and lindsey graham are already working on a plan to weasel out of the scheduled $600 billion in defense cuts. today, jim cli born, a member of the super committee, said he's open to rolling back those cuts too. president obama is on the record on this. >> already some in congress are trying to undue these automatic spending cuts. my message to them is simple. no. i will veto any effort to get rid of those automatic spending cuts, domestic and defense spending. >> representative chris van hollen was a member of the super committee. he's "outfront" withous tonight. good to have you with us. we appreciate it. and let's cut straight to this issue of the sequestration, the defense cuts in particular. mccain and graham are open to rolling it back, jim clyburn are open to it. are you. >> >> i'm not. the president is absolutely right to threaten to veto of any effort to undue the sequestration because if you undo the $

. >> any worries about sequestration? those automatic cuts that kick in, a lot of republicans are worried, and also the defense secretary, leon panetta, worried about what it can do to the defense budget. >> i'm worried about sequestration but i'm also worried about the opposite. we didn't get a downgrade because the markets are convinced we will reduce the deficit one way or another by $1.2 trillion. but there will be so much pressure on us come 2012 to erase some or all of the sequestration that maybe the markets are giving us more credit than we deserve. i'm not sure you will see much of the sequestration at all. >> congressman brad sherman, thanks for being with us tonight. >> good to be with you. >> the race to be who will be the gop nominee and possibly the president who will inherit the giant debt continues to heat up. who is in the lead and who is fading fast? former assistant to george w. bush joins us. and along with a pollster. doug, i want to start with you. >> sure. >> you do not lone to a right, you are not

it is a so-called sequestration.word that is really all that stands between us and another credit downgrade. but republican senators john mccain and lindsey graham are already working on a plan to weasel out of the scheduled $600 billion in defense cuts. today, jim cli born, a member of the super committee, said he's open to rolling back those cuts too. president obama is on the record on this. >> already some in congress are trying to undue these automatic spending cuts. my message to them is simple. no. i will veto any effort to get rid of those automatic spending cuts, domestic and defense spending. >> representative chris van hollen was a member of the super committee. he's "outfront" withous tonight. good to have you with us. we appreciate it. and let's cut straight to this issue of the sequestration, the defense cuts in particular. mccain and graham are open to rolling it back, jim clyburn are open to it. are you. >> >> i'm not. the president is absolutely right to threaten to veto of any effort to undue the se