ron paul will overperform. rick santorum has dug in. people that i talked to tell me they think they he is going to overperform. we may have a complicated iowa but the question will be how big and the question will be how closely bunched will the top three or four candidates. this is a low turnout thing, 120,000 people turn out. in a midterm gubernatorial, there was like 240,000 republicans turn out. i think paul and santorum are going to overperform. >> sean: maybe we'll see you thursday night. ann coulter. danaperina has results of a shocking new people. christine o'donnell is here with an announcement. who is she going to be endorsing for president here on in an event it in straight ahead. my name is robin. i'm a wife, i'm a mom... and chantix worked for me. it's a medication i could take and still smoke, while it built up in my system. [ male announcer ] along with support, chantiis proven to help people quit smoking. it reduthe urge to smoke. some people had changes in behavior, thinking orood, hostility, agitation, depressed mood

ron paul will overperform. rick santorum has dug in. people that i talked to tell me they think they he is going to overperform. we may have a complicated iowa but the question will be how big and the question will be how closely bunched will the top three or four candidates. this is a low turnout thing, 120,000 people turn out. in a midterm gubernatorial, there was like 240,000 republicans turn out. i think paul and santorum are going to overperform. >> sean: maybe we'll see you thursday night. ann coulter. danaperina has results of a shocking new people. christine o'donnell is here with an announcement. who is she going to be endorsing for president here on in an event it in straight ahead. the employee of the month isss... the new spark card from capital one. spark miles gives me the most rewards of any small business credit card. the spark card earns double miles... so we really had to up our game. with spark, the boss earns double miles on every rchase, every day. that's setting the bar pretty high. owning my own business has never

i think that's why ron paul will probably overperform where the republican party is wrrks his wing of a lot of the midwestern states. minnesota is a caucus state. he'll do well in those. when you get to the primaries like that touches water, has a different view when it comes to the noninterventionist foreign policy. he's probably not going to do as well. >> it seems mitt romney is the ç only campaign with an easy choice of who to attack. they want to attack newt gingrich to eliminate any significant challenge coming his way. you see santorum attacking ron paul. that interested me the most in the sense that huntsman going after ron paul. can anybody pull supporters away from ron paul? >> on one hand i agree with you. yes, you're not pulling anybody away from paul. what you are doing is capping them. paul is trying very much this campaign to become a mainstream choice inside the republican party. they handed out iowa family cookbooks for instance. and very much as a colleague of mine said it reminded me of the clean for jean. make sure you shave. we're more mainstream conservative repu

>> any of the bottom three candidates, michele bachmann, rick santorum, who are likely to overperformhey have been polling in the last month it's rick santorum. he has been to every county. we talk about he has done 350 town halls or meet and greet sessions. he has shaken the hands. trying to tap in the home school network that proved beneficial to mike huckabee in 2008. he got the endorsement of vander plaat, the other day. controversial though it was. you can take the discreet points and suggest that rick santorum is beginning to see a little momentum. if not seeing it yet, he set the stage so that in the coming days he could catch fire. >> bret: is there another primary going on here with the conservative wing here? the bachmann, santorum, rick perry, who comes out out of that as the winner of that group? >> yeah. there is maybe a fourth ticket if you think about it. you have the top three. potential for conservative support, social conservative to consolidate behind one of them. that could be a story line out of the caucus. i will tell you, newt gingrich, no one has been happier t

which has the chance to overperform and do well in iowa and propel into the top tier going on. >> i don't think there is any question ron paul. not only does he have the campaign structure we were just discussing but there he has money that has paid for the ads you were watching on tv where he was attacking others. huntsman falls out all together. bachmann has had mercedes moment and has not worked herself back up. santorum has worked hard in the state. no evidence again in the polling that he has taken off. it really comes down to ron paul, newt gingrich who i think needs to -- i meanfy was the ed rollins of his campaign i would have said to him why didn't you say you are the antiestablishment candidate, you are the tea party guy on the stage this week. we didn't you say that the establishment is attacking you in terms of these ads. the polls show he is still the leader in iowa. >> chris: it is interesting, talking about organization. one of the things i didn't know and i'm sure ed did when they go to the caucuses and all these church basements and school gyms, each candidate has somebod

which one of those has the best chance to overperform, do well in iowa and, therefore, get propelledo the top tier going out? >> i don't think there's any question it's ron paul. he has -- not only does he have the campaign structure that we were just discussing but there he has money that has paid for the ads that you were watching on tv where he was attacking others. huntsman falls out all together, i think. i think bachmann has had her moment and has not shown any evidence she has built herself back up. santorum, again, worked very hard in the state. i think they said he's visited every county. you know what? no evidence again in the polling that he has taken off so it really comes down to ron paul, newt gingrich who i think needs to, i mean, if i was the ed rollins of his campaign, i would have said to him, why didn't you say you're the anti-establishment candidate? you're the tea party guy on the stage this week? why didn't you say that the establishment is attacking you and attacking you in terms of these ads? i think he didn't play that. but polls show that he still is the lea

ron paul overperforms. what do you think? >> i think that's interesting. when we geet the general with congressman paul, i think that numbers will be the numbers will be different. >> but he does have an appeal when it comes to the war. i think there's a lot of -- whether you look at some of these independents. they're not happy. >> i agree with every one of his positions, clearly, but i give him credit for having positions that he is consistent on and he'll stick with them through thick or thin, even if they're not particularly popular and i'm sure that there are a lot of young people who appreciate that. that's destipistinctly not the with some of the frontrunners in the case. >> the president's jauvl approval rating in both states. mediocre, 43% about where his national rate is. new hampshire 40%. not as if your numbers are great in some of the other swing states, but at least they're in the national conversation. new hampshire, you consistently underperformed for a couple years, why? >> let me just skip by that question for a second and speak to the ge

juan, which has the best chance to overperform, do well in iowa, and therefore get propelled into theg out? >> i don't think there's any question it's ron paul. not only does he have the campaign structure we were just discussing, but there he has money, paying for the ads you were watching on tv where he was attacking others. huntsman falls out altogether. bachmann has had her moment, and not shown any evidence she's built herself up. santorum worked very hard in the state, visiting every county, but no evidence in the polling that he's taken off. it comes comes down to ron paul, newt gingrich, i mean, if i was the ed rollins of his campaign, i would have said to him, why didn't you say you're the anti-establishment candidate, the tea party guy on the stage this week? why didn't you say that the establishment is attacking you, attacking you in terms of these ads? i think he didn't play to that. the polls show he's still the leader in iowa. >> bill, you know, it's interesting, talking about organization, one of the things i didn't know, i'm sure ed did, when they go to these caucuses,

perry and bachman and santorum, i wouldn't be surprised if there is a surprise, if one of them overperformsinishes the top two or three. >> a ron paul prediction from chris. we'll see how it goes. thanks. >> you bet, eric. and listen, it is our christmas present. >> eric: looking forward to it. thank you. >> you bet, thanks. >> eric: and the one-on-one exclusive interview with presidential candidate mitt romney is on fox news sunday, only, right here, on the fox news channel, you can see it at 2:00 p.m. and 6:00 p.m. eastern time and you will not miss it, if you love politics like we do at the fox news channel. >> eric: we do, like bread be a butter. will you bake cookies, speaking of that, this holiday season? i have bad news for you. the doctors will tell us whether or not raw cookie dough, how great is that, sometimes better than baked. but they have a serious warning, it can be dangerous. really bummed out. maybe we could have a little. we'll tell you, "sunday house call," next. kes the right too, but also a caring touch. you learn to get a feel for the trouble spots. to know its wants.

if one of these lower tier candidates manages to surprise people and overperform and finish third that could be the story coming out of iowa. gregg: got to go. tom bevin, "real clear politics". thanks very much. >> thanks, gregg. gregg: fox news is america's election headquarters. tune in for complete coverage of iowa caucuses january 3rd, 6:00 p.m. fox news, your front row seat for politics. heather: we're not done with it yet. more on mitt romney and his chances in iowa. a member of his team says this is done deal, mitt will be the nominee. gregg: this search for missing girl in indyana. police find the 9-year-old dead. who they are now charging and why the family is so surprisedded. heather: new numbers show a growing financial divide between lawmakers and the rest of us. the capitol hill millionaires coming up. ♪ . are you receiving a payout from a legal settlement or annuity over 10 or even 20 years? call imperial structured settlements. the experts at imperial can convert your long-term payout into a lump sum of cash today. gregg: california police arresting the man suspected of

president obama's coalition in 2008 was based it -- got a huge boost from minorities and from overperformingowing faster than any other and, by the way, the white voters without college degrees, the voters who have largely gone away from the democratic party are backing a slightly smaller portion of the electorate. these changes are microscopic over a four-year period where the changes make up about a 1% net gain for president obama but, then again, 1% is a pretty big change in terms of politics, especially in states like north carolina where he won by 18,000 votes in 2008. >> yeah. you outline the growth of the coalition in 2008, growing by this one point, a handful of states that include ohio, north carolina, virginia, pennsylvania and it's grown by 2 points in virginia and pennsylvania. it's grown by 3 points in nevada. break this down in terms of where the growth is coming from. >> remember, this election in 2012 is not a race to 50% plus one. it's a race to 220 electoral votes. the real fight is going to come down to 11 states, most of which president obama won -- all of which president