fascinating conversation with nobel prize winner daniel kahneman. >>> a big birthday but an awkward time to throw a big birthday bash. i'll explain. >>> first here's my take. it's the start of the new year and we will do predictions on this show. i thought i'd try my own hand at some before asking others to risk their reputations. and in the spirit of keeping myself honest, i'm going to look back at what i said and wrote in "time" magazine at the start of last year and see how i did. it's always risky to stick your neck out and humbling to look at your predictions but here goes. the only indulgence i allow myself is to start with areas i did well. i said i thought china would moderate its foreign policy behavior recognizing its assertiveness and arrogance over the last year had caused jitters throughout asia. i think that happened. i said the taliban's momentum would be broken in afghanistan. it has somewhat. i said the drawdown of american troops in iraq would take place and would not cause great regional crises or instability. all of that seemed to play out pretty much as i predicted.