>> rose: welcome to our ogram, tonight we taka look at the new hampshire primary with matthew dowd, al hunt, norah o'donnell and former senator from new hampshire judd gregg. >> everybody's been looking f somebody to build around a consensus candide to take on mi romney. that hasn't happed. but what has happened inhe last 24 hours for the first time in the race, there is a consensus message against mitt romney that every one of the a can dates are now repeating. >> rose: also a look at the film "the artist." the star is jean dujardin and berenice bejo and the film is directed by michel hazanavicius. >> to me, the story is more about how, a man, a human being, has to adapt himself in a transiti period and how when your world is changing you have to face that. hollywood or not hollywood, it's the same for everybody and especially now. the world is changing so fast that when you wor in a factory or in an office or in anywhere, things can change very quickly and you have to adapt yourself. i think it's more about that. rose: the new hampshire primary and the new silent film "the artist," w

. >> we're going to bring in matthew dowd and leslie sanchez. my question is, who wins a tie tonight? is it mitt romney, the candidate with the national organization, the money, the resources to go forward, looking forward to new hampshire, or is it rick santorum, the guy who came out of nowhere and has tied the front-runner? >> well, this race has been about one thing the whole time. it's been about romney maintaining his stable lead. he got the same percentage, it looks like, that he did four years ago when he finished second. and who was going to be his competitor? five different candidates have had a shot at it. we've had six different fro front-runn front-runners. we now have a new candidate who is going to take a shot. i think the winner tonight, if you can say there's a winner in a basically tied race is rick santorum, the new person with his time in the sun, to see if he can be that and have staying power to be the non-romney candidate. >> and that will depend if some of the other candidates who have fallen back, gingrich, perry, bachman

so, it is a historic night. >> we'll get more from matthew dowd shortly on "good morning america." >>> president obama is focused on the midwest, as well, this morning, as he heads to the key battleground state of ohio for a speech on the economy. last night, the president spoke to democratic caucusgoers in iowa, via video conference. he urged voters to help him battle what he called millions of dollars in negative ads. >>> and candidate jon huntsman gets some company today. he had been the sole candidate in the state of new hampshire. the former utah governor did not bother to campaign in iowa. instead, focusing his resources on the new hampshire primary, which is next week. huntsman told a group of supporters, quote, nobody cares who wins in iowa. >>> and with the race heating up, abc is your place for the next debate. just three days now until george stephanopoulos and diane sawyer ask the tough questions. you can see it all saturday night, 9:00 eastern, 6:00 pacific. >>> arctic air gripping the east coast, has parts of florida plunging to record lows. farmers are scrambling to pro

we have an assessment of where we go from now with david brooks of "the new york times", and mattçó dowdf bloomberg news and abc news. >> you plead to have a total sense of your own gut, you need½ ekuz develop a narrative of youe with that vote, with the voters, if you need to learn and be abli to connect practice as you go through things in iowa, but don't spend all of this time on fund-raising, don't spend all of this time on searching for the right consultant, don't spend all of this time on doing all of these things campaign seem to spend way too much time on and basically figure out a development of yr own self an then say what are the moments debate and other press moments where at those moments i am going to be at the top of my game. >> rose: we conclude this evening with the actor kevin spacey, he is the director of the old vick and his latest production this which he stars in richard the third. >> i mean look i have been here a lot and sat at this table and talked about a lot of experiences i have had, nothing i have ever done in a theatre s compared to whathis experience has be

jon meacham, matthew dowd and nate silver join the conversation. >> what people do is yearn for the past. what people do is say they have a voice and a message that says we can go bacards, we can go back, it's more comfortable, it's more settled. newt gingrich is really and much part ohis message is a yearning and a sense of there was america before that was much better and what president obama's done is taken us where from america should be and we can go back. i think the president has to... he has to do it not only tomorrow night-- is important tomorrow night but the next 300 days after that-- to lay out a vision of where he sees the future in a realisticway for the country to see how to get there. >> rose: we conclude this evening with the great swedish actor max von sydow whose newest film is "extremely loud and incredibly close." >> of cour this is a film about disaster. it's very pain informal many ways but it's also-- and i think that's more important-- a story about love and a story about hope. >> rose: the republican presidential contest and max von sydow when we continue. capti

with george will, ron brownstein from "the national journal" and abc's political pros matthew dowd and amy walter. >>> good morning, everyone. and overnight, it is a brand-new race for the republican nomination. after finishing fourth in iowa and fifth in new hampshire, former speaker of the house newt gingrich surged to a strong win in south carolina. look at those numbers. 40% of the votes to mitt romney's 28%. rick santorum third at 17%. in his victory speech last night, gingrich struck a populous chord. >> the american people feel that they have elites who have been trying for a half-century to force us to quit being americans. the reaction, people completely understand what's going on. it's not that i'm a good debater, it's that i articulate the deepest felt values of the american people. >> mitt romney attacked after congratulating gingrich. >> president obama has no experience running a business. and no experience running a state. our party can't be led to victory by someone who also has never owned a business and never run a state. >> yesterday's vote wasn't the only loss for r

in the meantime, i want to bring in abc news political analyst matthew dowd, with us here in new york tonight. matthew, always great to have you. and you were telling me earlier what we all should be watching for in iowa, which is, not necessarily the winner to be chosen for the nomination, but for the field to be whittled down. >> we're about to get to the voting. months we've been waiting for this. and the voting in iowa usually doesn't pick the nominee, it picks who the nominee isn't. if you look at history, as recently as 2008, mike huckabee wins, not the republican nominee. john mccain becomes the republican nominee. that has happened over and over. iowa performs a very good function, which is, it whittles the field down from multiple candidates to a smaller number. >> when you look at this image, we pulled it up, the last abc news debate. you predict the next abc news debate, less than a week from now, we may not see the same people standing there? >> it will be a less crowded stage. one or two of the candidates probably won't be there. >> now, the white house surely watching io

let's ask matthew dowd. >> i not only think he can win. he is likely to win. he's dead even.f you take a look what his advisers are saying, they're saying, we were always in this for the long haul. it's a good signal they know momentum is on newt's side. you usually bet on momentum. >> has he essentially neutralized the negative impact of the abc news interview with his ex-wife. >> i think he not only has neutralized it, temporarily. it may always come back up. but he's turned it into an asset in how he confronted john king at the debate. the way he did it, the way the audience responded. >> that's jujitsu. >> absolutely. >> whoever wins the south carolina primary goes on to win the republican nomination. but mitt romney still has some formidable advantages. newt does not have a clear shot here if he wins the. >> we always go back to history. this race has been without historical precedence. we may have for the first time three different people win the first three races. south carolina always picked the nominee because someone else won iowa and new hampshire first. he has an

let's ask matthew dowd. good morning. thanks for getting up early on a saturday. we appreciate it.ou think he can win. >> i not only think he can win. he is likely to win. he went from being pioints behid several days ago. now he's dead even. if you take a look what his advisers are saying, they're saying, we were always in this for the long haul. it's a good signal they know momentum is on newt's side. you usually bet on momentum. >> has he essentially neutralized the negative impact of the abc news interview with his ex-wife? >> i think he not only has neutralized it, temporarily. it may always come back up. depending on how long this process goes. but he's turned it into an asset in how he confronted john king at the debate. the way he did it, the way the audience responded. he's taken it from a liability to an asset. >> that's jujitsu. >> it's absolutely jujitsu. >> whoever wins the south carolina primary goes on to win the republican nomination. but mitt romney still has some formidable advantages. in terms of money and organization in the coming states. newt does not have a c

george will, jake tapper, matthew dowd and donna brazile. >>> reporting from manchester, new hampshire, george stephanopoulos. [ applause ] >>> good morning, everyone. great to be back with you on sunday mornings. great to be here with this live audience right here in manchester. we got a terrific lineup this morning. right here on the same stage where all of the candidates debated last night. closing in on his first primary the stakes were high. mitt romney, way ahead in this state, he took some early heat from his rivals. zeroing in on romney's corporate background. as investor in bain capital. >> you got to lead and inspire. >> i'm not really enmored as a wall street model where you can flip companies, go in and have leverage buyouts. take out the money and leaving behind the workers. >> no one amounted a sustained attack. romney kept to his script. it was battle for second place finish here. including this one between ron paul and the man he's called a chicken hawk, newt gingrich. >> i think people who don't serve when they could and they get three or four or even five deferments a

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let's go right to our abc news political consultant matt dowd, and republican strategist leslie sanchezjoining us from abc news election headquarters in new york. this incredibly close election, what does it say about the party and about what comes next? >> it's interesting to me, it says a lot. you have to congratulate mitt romney on a bare victory he had. i think the only one coming out of here with any real momentum is rick santorum, even though he lost by a few votes. he's the new guy on the scene. everybody else in the primary's had their shot. mitt romney, there's been the mitt romney primary which seems to get about 25% of the vote, and the non-mitt romney primary. that's what we're going to have to figure out in the course of the next few weeks is whether or not rick santorum has better and more lasting staying power than the other candidates that have surfaced in the course of this to take on mitt romney. and i think mitt romney has to answer the question whether he can get more votes than he's been able to get over the cost of the last four years. because as was pointed out, h

let's bring in abc political consultant, matt dowd.nd in new hampshire, democratic strategist, donna brazile. welcome, matt, donna. is mitt romney the prohibitive front-runner? >> he is the prohibitive front-runner. when you end up with 39%, 40% of the vote you end up with, he's going to get a bump out of this. he's won two in a row. that hasn't happened in a long time. the last time that happened, gerald ford won two in a row, iowa and new hampshire. there's a lot of lessons we can't apply to south carolina. 60% of the vote is evangelical. that's one issue he has to confront that he hasn't had to dealt with. last time, he got 15% of the vote in south carolina. he has to deal with that. i think for all intents and purpose, when you look at this, his three likely opponents he thought he would have to battle with, rick perry, rick santorum and newt gingrich, together, got less votes than ron paul. i think the fact he will have to deal with is the long slog that ron paul is going to put him through. ron paul, no matter how soon mitt romne

blaming armed gangs for the violence james corbet editor of an independent news website based in japan dowd's if the observer mission would bring any plausible results. the final report will be a pretty much preordained conclusion that there will be findings that the assad government is not doing enough to to listen to the concerns of its citizens but personally i'm not sure what is more ridiculous about this story be the idea that the the autocratic focus of the arab league states.

in the meantime i want to bring in amy walter, matt dowd, political analyst. we were crunching numbers when we came on the air. what i found most interesting, over half deciding in the last few days as heading to the polls what does this tell you? >> of those people, you know many of them were also using debates as the reason for picking a candidate. one candidate over the other. and we know that these debates have been so, so, as you pointed out. hot, hot button issues have come up. newt bring rich used in many debates, they were like oxygen for him. they've helped sustain him and give him that fire that he needs. and he turned his biggest liability, which was these remarks that came out by his ex-wife, he turned those into an asset. >> into a positive. absolutely. >> you mentioned the gingrich performance there's the romney performance in this debate. >> that's interesting. what we've seen, starting in iowa. late deciders changed the race in iowa, and new ham shiernd may change it in south carolina. momentum has been key. anybody that gets that momentum and

>> joining us with his take on iowa and where things go from here is abc's political analyst, matt dowd. good morning. thank you for joining us. >> great to be here. >> used to seeing you on gma, and other shows. thank you for slumming it with us on the overnights. >> lovely to be here. have me back. >> talk about how big a night was this for rick santorum? >> i think a huge night for rick santorum. in the race where we had six front-runners going into this up to a week and a half ago. rick santorum was in single digits. everyone had written him off. he hadn't campaigned in new hampshire, south carolina, later dates. he now could win. now could win. at least, he is tied in the race. this is a huge thing for him. going to give him a big lift nationally. going to give him a big lift into new hampshire and south carolina. >> where do we go from here? were you surprised how close this was the this was mitt romney's pretty much to take. ended up. at some point there were 13 votes differentiating santorum from romney? >> the interesting thing about this race. it's been a race, mitt romney has