paul begala, you helped write several of the state of the union addresses. did this president need an editor to cut it down? >> i'm weird this way, i love it, and particularly this conclusion. that was worth staying for. that was really powerful. the whole tone was much more populous than this president has been, suggesting he relishes the idea of stepping up and being campaigner in chief. the thing that struck me, the beginning and the ending, is how authenticly and comfortably and confidently he inhabits the role of commander in chief. when they salute him, they don't know what to do. no longer, he is very comfortable being the commander in chief, and he spoke about it. politically, a great speech, but i love seeing my commander in chief being that powerful. >> he's walking out of the chamber right now. ari fleischer, you worked for george w. bush, what did you think of that speech? >> there was hardly anything in the speech i liked. let me start with the thing i like and like a lot. that was, i salute the president, the courageous decision to authorize th

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democratic strategist paul begala. republican strategist mary matalin. u saw the numbers, romney, 29. gingrich, 25, paul, 20. race has tightened a bit toward the end. are these numbers to strike fear in the heart of team romney? >> i think not. i'll defer to the panelists who know the party better than i do. if i were advising romney, i'd say you know, so far, good. if he hangs on, he doesn't have to win in south carolina. the only person who ever ran the table in the primaries was al gore when he ran against bill bradley in the 2000 primaries. so i think he's actually in this poll in pretty strong shape. i would worry a lot more about the lasting damage of the attacks on his record as a vulture capitalist because a lot of republicans seem to agree with those attacks. >> is it a lot of republicans are worried about it? it seems like it was perry using that term and his backers backing away from him. >> that's right, and both newt and perry have walked back. they haven't even talked about it in the last few days. it is imperative for mitt to not let paul b

let's bring in host of cnn state of the june ior, candy crowley, paul begala, ari fleischer, and do wetill have john king? yes, we have john king in there. john, let me start off with you. it does seem when you talk to whether it's senator demint or jeff or folks on the left or right, they're on completely different planets. >> that's a good way to put it, on different planets. elections matter. if the american people hear anything, it's contrast. a very unapologetic speech from the president defending the role of the government in economy. you went through the tax credits, the president sharing his tax law. he's talking about the an an apologetic hand in the government, and from the predsaying he's not spending enough time on the debt, and mitch daniels, he said the pretdz believes in a government with benevolent government. david was being cute by saying the campaign can wait. it's already under way. >> i don't know when one of you is from mars or seens, but it seems like you see the same set of facts and interpret them differently. >> i'm from texas and fleisher is from new york. wh

let's bring in host of cnn state of the junior, candy crowley, paul begala, ari fleischer, and do we have john king? yes, we have john king in there. john, let me start off with you. it does seem when you talk to whether it's senator demint or jeff or folks on the left or right, they're on completely different planets. >> that's a good way to put it, on different planets. elections matter. if the american people hear anything, it's contrast. a very unapologetic speech from the president defending the role of the government in economy. you went through the tax credits, the president sharing his tax law. he's talking about the regulations after the oil spill. you could go on and on. government aides to keep certain manufacturing incentives in place. an an apologetic hand in the government, and from the predsaying he's not spending enough time on the debt, and mitch daniels, he said the pretdz believes in a government with benevolent government. david was being cute by saying the campaign can wait. it's already under way. >> i don't know when one of you is from mars or seens, but it see

democratic strategist paul begala. republican strategist mary matalin. ers, romney, 29. gingrich, 25, paul, 20. race has tightened a bit toward the end. are these numbers to strike fear in the heart of team romney? >> i think not. i'll defer to the panelists who know the party better than i do. if i were advising romney, i'd say you know, so far, good. if he hangs on, he doesn't have to win in south carolina. the only person who ever ran the table in the primaries was al gore when he ran against bill bradley in the 2000 primaries. so i think he's actually in this poll in pretty strong shape. i would worry a lot more about the lasting damage of the attacks on his record as a vulture capitalist because a lot of republicans seem to agree with those attacks. >> is it a lot of republicans are worried about it? it seems like it was perry using that term and his backers backing away from him. >> that's right, and both newt and perry have walked back. they haven't even talked about it in the last few days. it is imperative for mitt to not let paul begala and his

paul begala could address this. he was giving prime-time appearances about every 2 1/2 months. he was way too overexposed. >> he was on mist buyth busters. >> one thing they have done is taking him off the stage for a long time. he hasn't done a primetime appearance in 4 1/2 months. that's a long gap. that will help him because he will sound fresher. he left the stage for others. >> he didn't leave the stage for others. welcomed the stage for others, they're so busy firing at each other, why interrupt that. >> that's a good point. >> we have to take a quick break. i want to thank our panel. the state of the union speech is set for a half hour from now. right back with my colleague, wolf blitzer. our environment. across america, these technologies protect air - by monitoring air quality and reducing emissions... ...protect water - through conservation and self-contained recycling systems... ... and protect land - by reducing our footprint and respecting wildlife. america's natural gas... domestic, abundant, clean energy to power our lives... that's smarter power today. ♪ you and

. >>> paul begala and terry helton are standing by for the strategy session. [ todd ] hello?odd. just calling to let you know i'm giving you the silent treatment. so you're calling to tell me you're giving me the silent treatment? ummm, yeah. jen, this is like the eighth time you've called... no, it's fine, my family has free unlimited mobile-to-any-mobile minutes. i can call all i want. i don't think you understand how the silent treatment works. hello? [ male announcer ] buy unlimited messaging and get free unlimited calling to any mobile phone on any network. at&t. . >>> it's probably closer to the 15% rate, because the last ten years my income comes overwhelmingly from investments in the past. i gets a little bit from the book, but i gave that away, and speaker's fees from time to time, but not very much. >>> joining us our catherine political contributor, the democrat ecstrat cyst paul begala, along with republican strategist terry hoch. he made almost -- >> not very much. >> it depends on your definition of "much." >> i guess so. >> most of his income has been investmen

paul begala and the republican strategist mary matalin.ut that explanation. >> this is erin's background, she knows this stuff better than i ever will. i know she's right about it. what's interesting political is we saul earlier a live shot of mitt romney speaking, and he has this phrase, i love america. of course, he does. roars, so does my mother, we're not going to make her president, but his political opponents can say if you love america so much, why were you investing in the cayman islands, in swiss bank accounts, in luxembourg, in ire listen middle-class folks don't have swiss accounts, so if you love america so much, why weren't you investing. >> what about he had a blind trust and investors were doing that. >> about you you can give parameters and say only invest in america. he has to explain that. and by the way, what about before he had this blind trust? wee won't he release earlier tax returns? were there some years he paid less or any years when he paid zero? this thing is not just going to go away. >> mary, what do you think?

paul begala and mary matalin are standing by. for you. one more thing....u like, i bought you five new pairs. love you. did you see the hockey game last night? [ male announcer ] progresso. you gotta taste this soup. it's pro-cool technology releases armies of snowmen masseuse who cuddle up with your soreness and give out polar bear hugs. technology. [ male announcer ] new bengay cold therapy. the same technology used by physical therapists. go to bengay.com for a $3 coupon. >>> let's getting right to our strategy session. paul begala is in washington, and from new orleans, the republican strategist mary matalin. mary, let me start with you. is mitt romney potential in danger by all negative publicity he's getting and potentially could be defined by. >> yes, in danger if he doesn't handle it. he cannot not respond. he has 20 do a little discourse on equity investments, and point out the affect they create jobs, and he there is a way to handle it, and no pun intended, he could learnedage it to a positive if he opened the debate and talked about the free mark

you know, anderson, i hate to agree with franc finkle -- i mean, paul begala, but i do -- i think rickn iowa. you can just feel it. there is something exquisitely timed about the fact he's going up without having the burden of being shot at, which is what took newt down and others down. it's not such a referendum on rick santorum as much as still mitt romney is yet to have been able to get above the crucial mathematical threshold in which he can box out somebody and take first place. the real test for rick santorum will come next. i don't think he can win in new hampshire. but this race goes on. i see this working out in a victory for rick santorum in iowa, i have to say. >> fascinating. paul, if you were mitt romney, you want rick santorum -- not necessarily to win but you want him in the top three for as long as possible, i assume, because he take as way from gingrich and others. >> i'm quite sure the romney people would rather -- somebody's going to be the anti-romney. i think they'd rather it be santorum than, say, a rick perry or gingrich or guys who think -- identify talked to so

want to bring back the panel, ron brownstein, jamal simmons and we also have added paul begala -- it. i'm losing it. we have to end the show soon. let's talk about what they talk about. i get the congresswoman's point. people think latinos and all of a sudden it's immigration, immigration. as a cuban american, i totally get that. when you poll latinos, immigration is higher than people who are nonlatino. >> here's the thing. if you look at president obama's approval rating among hispanics it is down significant. that is the opportunity that congresswoman is talking about. about jobs, the collapse of housing values and this overall economy has hit hispanic communities especially hard. when you do the early matchups of him against the republicans, like mitt romney, his vote share goes back up toward where he was in 2008. >> it's not going over to. >> because immigration may not be the most important issue for latino voters, but it is a threshold issue. if republicans discuss it in the way that many have in the primary, it goes beyond the specifics and kind of threatens to suggest a lac

paul begala is joining us as well, and also former speechwriter for president george bush, george w.g us again. so let's talk about what the governor just said. basically he said anybody could win it. newt gingrich told that same thing to me this morning. do you think that's realistic, the bottom tier of this could have a big showing? >> i think there will be various definitions of win as there always are coming out of iowa. i think if you see a lot of bunch up around third place that fifth will become the new third. that we will see 11%, 12%, 13% in there. more people coming out of iowa with a ticket. we don't know what the turnout will be. the weather is going to be okay. nobody has to jump over a snow bank. it's mild in iowa terms. i don't think anybody can win it. i think you have to look at the poll and see basically the first three. >> spent the morning talking me out of the polls. who pays attention to polls? >> why bother to ask people what they're going to do and then believe them? polls don't matter. all the front-runners are telling you they will end up third. then you loo

. >> why drop out when you can wait and go to texas, hang out with paul begala and get 155 delegate votes than 10% of delegates have been selected. february is a weak month in terms of picking up delegates with the new rules on the republican side that often gives you a big bonus if you went over 50% and you get a little proporti proportionality. there's no reason for any of the candidates to drop out. >> you're saying like jeremiah johnson they can live off the land. >> i've known some candidates that's been able to live off the land and pick up a little bit of money along the way. we need to raise some money right now for rick santorum i guess. but the truth of the matter is, you have super tuesday on march 6. you have big states like new york and california still down the road. if mitt romney can buy his opponents out of the race perhaps he can get to 1144. that's the number of delegates needed to win. but otherwise i think it's going to be a lot more mayhem before we get to a real winner. >> oh, yeah. it's so volatile. we've had at least seven front runners and we're only on the third

paul begala, mary matalin, they were worked in democratic white houses.ng to go through what happens. also the presidential campaign, newt gingrich sort of backed down last night in the debate. what happened? we have a lot of that. >> we'll see el later and tonight, of course. >>> dana bash will go behind of scenes of the state of the union address, give us a sneak peek inside the house chamber floor. we'll be right back. you know organization is key... and so is having a trusted assistant. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle...and go. you can even take a full-size or above and still pay the mid-size price. here we are... [ male announcer ] and there you go, business pro. there you go. go national. go like a pro. a living, breathing intelligence that is helping business rethink how to do business. in here, inventory can be taught to learn. ♪ in here, machines have a voice... ♪ [ male announcer ] in here, medical history follows you... even when you're away from home. it's the at&t network -- a network o

. >> donna brazile, mary mat tin, paul begala. go in and get warm. we'll have all the results and abnalysis here on cnn. 7:00 p.m. tomorrow. see us again at 10:00 eastern tonight. another edition of "360" from des moines. piers morgan starts right now. >>> tonight, make or break on the eve of iowa. >> i don't think i'm going to win. look at the numbers. that volume of negativity has done enough damage. >> newt gingrich giving up already? tonight i'll ask him. plus taking their case to the voters. >> get out there and vote tomorrow. i need every vote. >> we are not looking for a chief executive officer for this country. we're looking for a commander in chief. >> we have to change things today and bring back the traditions of america, which means liberty, peace and prosperity. >> how important is iowa really? and who will drop out? will negative campaigning make a difference? i'll talk to a man who knows a lot about that, herman cain, a force to be reckoned with. this is "piers morgan tonight." good evening. while most of americans are celebrating the

. >> i'll be oliver north in crossfire's paul begala.dea if he's right that the debate moment will hurt him net-net. it got him positive press coverage and he bashed the press, but it's possible that it won't cause him to lose the primary, but will keep him from wing as good as he might. personally, i don't see problem with that. they love their father and we need to think anew about people we cover and they testified. i'm uncomfortable about them testifying to facts they may not be -- but for adults to say here's why i love my father, and i don't think there's anything wrong. i respectfully submit. >> would you like to follow up with a cross-examination. >> mark, i agree with you. i think the gender gap could be a problem and the only thing i would say to that is newt gingrich has never done well with women. this is not a new phenomenon. if the bottom drops out it may be because of these dirty tricks involving the abortion e-mail, but i don't think newt gingrich will ever be someone who will notch great victories with women voters. i do

let's get our first impression by ed goaz, democrats strategist paul begala and senior romney visor.do you explain south carolina? is part of the lesson it doesn't always work? >> that's right. oftentimes, you know, everybody looks at how do you have the momentum and do you have the infrastructure. i'm sorry the message and infrastructure. in this case, the momentum actually happened. what's important too is that voters aren't just looking or they're not making their big opinions based on just soft imprints of advertising, but they're also learning a lot from these debates. a lot of the media taking place in this campaign is shaping voter opinions. as much as we try to put an overemphasis on the amount of money spent, it comes down to whether or not you have the message and you're mobilizing key voters. >> if that's right that the debates and momentum have so far at least competed and sometimes outweighed the ad spending when we get into the later months and all those contests, is it your take that that's when this money will matter because the candidates can't be anywhere? >> absolu

>> actually, paul begala, was there -- there wasn't much talk about reducing the deficit in this speech, which is something for a lot of republicans should be front and center. >> you're right, and david gergen's right. much more emphasis in this speech on jobs, on opportunity, on education, on health care, on tax policy, interestingly enough. but what also struck me, if you just looked at it, parachuting in from a foreign country, you probably wouldn't know this is a president who is stuck at 44% going into his re-election with a painfully almost 9% unemployment rate, nor if you watched governor daniels would you know that his party is the one that just won a landslide election a year ago. it was really remarkable. governor daniels has his admirers, and he's a fine man. i'm sure he's a good governor. for me his speech was so pessimistic. this is hard to do. it was a glass of warm milk with a fly in it. it was both boring and depressing at the same time. i didn't quite go for it. i want an optimist. i think americans want an optimist. and barack obama doesn't have much to be optimistic

paul begala, you helped write several of the state of the union addresses. did this president need an editor to cut it down? >> i'm weird this way, i love it, and particularly this conclusion. that was worth staying for. that was really powerful. the whole tone was much more populous than this president has been, suggesting he relishes the idea of stepping up and being campaigner in chief. the thing that struck me, the beginning and the ending, is how authenticly and comfortably and confidently he inhabits the role of commander in chief. when they salute him, they don't know what to do. no longer, he is very comfortable being the commander in chief, and he spoke about it. politically, a great speech, but i love seeing my commander in chief being that powerful. >> he's walking out of the chamber right now. ari fleischer, you worked for george w. bush, what did you think of that speech? >> there was hardly anything in the speech i liked. let me start with the thing i like and like a lot. that was, i salute the president, the courageous decision to authorize th

paul begala is joining us as well, and also former speechwriter for president george bush, george w.talk about what the governor just said. basically he said anybody could win it. newt gingrich told that same thing to me this morning. do you think that's realistic, the bottom tier of this could have a big showing? >> i think there will be various definitions of win as there always are coming out of iowa. i think if you see a lot of bunch up around third place that fifth will become the new third. that we will see 11%, 12%, 13% in there. more people ming out of iowa with a ticket. we don't know what the turnout will be. the weather is going to be okay. nobody has to jump over a snow bank. it's mild in iowa terms. i don't think anybody can win it. i think you have to look at the poll and see basically the first three. >> spent the morning talking me out of the polls. who pays attention to polls? >> why bother to ask people what they're going to do and then believe them? polls don't matter. all the front-runners are telling you they will end up third. then you look at the people -- >> s

let's discuss what's going on with our cnn political contributor paul begala and republican strategistpaul, everybody knew he was having an affair. this is not news, but to hear her say it like this on television? is it going to have an impact? >> it's not exactly on message, as we say in the business, but as you point out, it's not exactly new either. newt gingrich is an amazingly talented debater. what he seems to like most is attacking the media. what i think you'll see is bashing abc news and try to pivot it. he tells a wonderful story of his personal redemption, and people like that. i don't know that it's going to be terribly damaging. it's upsetting personally. you hate to see any family -- i'm not a fan of gingrich -- it should be a private problem. >> you worked for newt gingrich. did you have any clue what was going on? >> i never did. when people tell me he really had to resign, because everybody knew about calista, i say you think his friend david ban yard was protecting him and not telling him during the lewinsky stuff? but washington has been covering him for 30 years. he

paul begala and former bush white house press secretary ari fleischer. thanks very much.too easy. >> there's a reason they're made at the last hour. it's a tack that goes beyond bounds. jewish residents did get kosher food. this was to pay for an increase and even more spending on kosher food, and romney swreetoed that, trying to close a budget gap. what i don't like about the ad, and this is classic newt. he brings in the issue of religious freedom. this had nothing to do with religious freedom. i think the ad crosses the line. >> and raises the issue of a mormon running, suggesting that maybe a mormon w507b9 want elderly jewish people to get kosher food, which is a ridiculous charge. >> i don't think newt would make that attack. if mitt were a martian or catholic as i am, it's over the top. it's fumally accurate. ari is right, the governor then vetoed a law that would have extended increase funding, he vetoed it, but god bless the democrats, they overrode the veto so that grandma was able to eat kosher. it's more of a budget issue than religious freedom. ari is right ab

bill burton, one of the former deputy press secretaries and our own paul begala have a super pac. >> two very talented people, by my reporting, wolf is that the democratic super pacs have not raised very much money at all to date at all. the republican super pacs are raising an enormous money. in the super pac world, dollar to dollar, there's just for competition to date. >> thank you. so far mitt romney has donnell what hi needed to do, win. can he keep it going? a breakdown offers a few klees. our gloria borger is here with more on this. what was different in romney's victory last night? >> well, wolf, put simply, he ran the table. he did what every republican candidate dreams of doing. let me just tell you the groups he won across. he won with republicans, with people who identify themselves as conservatives, tea party supporters, evangelicals, and of course those very important independent voters. democrats are going to point out, and they do, that mitt romney did not win with lower-income people. he didn't win with younger voters, and the turnout, of course, was not as terrific

here in "the situation room" and joining us right now our strategy session, our cnn contributors, paul begalamatalin. did you hear what he said about mitt romney, the man that might be the republican nominee, that he's dishonest, he's liberal. he's progay, you can't trust him. he didn't say that in the last debate thursday thiet. what's going on here? >> well, that's still a better rendition in a primary squabble, which is painful. i don't care what side you're on, primaries are the worst but that's better than when newt focuses on himself or the process. when he talks about the negative ads or all of that, that's not what got him to his assent. his assent was wholly based on his passionate and confident championship of conservatism. that's when he does best. and when he contrasts that with obama, now he's contrasting it with mitt romney and that's what primaries are about. when he goes to the personal, i think -- i say that of all the candidates. when -- that turns off the conservative voters. it turns off all voters actually. >> it's gotten very personal as you can see. it's not just talkin