yes so you're saying that the most optimistic viewpoint is there are bad the chinese economy may already be traders and lies and the united states won so the i'm entirely sure where it is but certainly from our point of view the perspective of europe and from the united states and europe is generally that still china is lacking far behind and we think that's clearly not true and apart from the i.m.f. we had a study by the economist released just now saying was a lie the i.m.f. bad china really surpassing the u.s. as the number one economy including sixteen in the purchasing power parity terms in two thousand and eighteen in nominal g.d.p. too and so we would think if they have not already overtaken the u.s. which is quite possible then to the and sixteen for those nations that's probably the latest date so clearly from an investor's perspective you better look at china gaining some exposure in some way from a geo political perspective clearly it's. gaining influence quite strongly and it's probably a good saying that this is happening you know a train in russia can criticize a lot in the

economy in two thousand and sixteen but others are even saying that the chinese economy has already surpassed the american one how do you look at it. well yes as you are saying that the most optimistic viewpoint of their time is economy may already be twenty of us and largest in the united states one so we aren't entirely sure where it is but certainly from our point of view the perspective of anyone from the united states and europe is generally a that still china is letting far behind and we think that's clearly not true and apart from the i.m.f. study by the economists really is just now saying was a lie the i.m.f. that china will be surpassing the u.s. as the number one economy in two thousand and sixteen the purchasing power parity terms and two thousand and eighteen a nominal g.d.p. terms or when you would think if they have not already overtaken the u.s. which is quite possible then to the and sixteen to those nations that's probably the latest date so clearly from an investor's perspective you better look at china gaining some exposure in some way from a geopolitical perspective clear

darren gersh begins our reporting by looking at whether the chinese economy engine may be slowing or shifting into a new gear. >> reporter: as the factory to the world, china's biggest customer is europe. so with the euro crisis crimping wallets, it's not surprising chinese companies are exporting less. but there is another problem for the chinese economy that should be very familiar to americans. >> well, the share of resources that's being devoted to housing in china is substantially in excess, about 50% greater than it ever was in the u.s. at the peak, and it's on a par with spain and we know what happened there, so there is a potential for a big drag on economic growth. >> reporter: of course if housing really tanks, the chinese government has shown it knows how to flood the economy with cheap lending. but that could be more of a challenge now. china is trying to shift away from a traditional model of heavy investment in big factories. >> there is a sense that in an economy that is very labor rich, where there are lots of people who are still looking for employment, to pour so mu

china and the chinese economy, the second-largest has -- the second-largest economy has slowed. this is lower than most analysts had predicted. this raises more questions about the ability of the chinese leadership to keep the economy on track. >> china's retailers are having to try harder to ship their goods. this is partly because up delivered at times by the government to rollback the boom before it got out of control. >> consumer demand is not as big as last year. first, the government suspended all subsidies for home appliances. second, there are policies to protect the market. >> is the party over for the chinese economy? most experts say there is still momentum but the atmosphere is more muted. what china is trying to shift away from an enormous export- based drive to one that is more dependent on its cellphone. they are trying to do it at a time where they are trying to get to the inflation under control. -- china is trying to shift away from an enormous export-based drive to one that is more dependent on its own. >> china had more than 9% growth. even with the pace of ex

remember i mentioned the chinese economy transitioning from that of producer to that of consumer. that is not exactly bullish for these raw commodities. i mean, they are consuming half the world's cement. half the world's iron ore. but after a while that rate of change of building highways and building airports -- don't get me wrong, they still need more airports, but the rate of change is what is so important. at the same time you have so much new supply coming on stream in terms of iron ore and in terms of some of these raw commodities that just when you start to see the growth rate in chinese and emerging market demand perhaps slowing is when that supply curve shifts to the right, which may not be so good for the prices of these raw materials. >> okay. quick take on europe. your largest holding forever has been credit suisse. is it still? >> yes. this is a very, very sound financial institution which has two businesses. a very strong annuity-producing private bank. and they've continued incidentally to increase net money in that bank at around 5% a year at relatively stable gro

worse than expected, starting worries about the health of the global economy. >> europe's ongoing debt crisis is softening demand for chineseducts. inflation is taking a toll on consumer spending and investment is beginning to taper off. at 8.1%, china's economic growth is the slowest in three years. still, authorities are upbeat. >> china's economy has been influenced by international and domestic changes that resulted in a slowdown in demand. but to a major extent, the slowdown was also the result of voluntary adjustments made by the chinese government. >> for example, epicene is tightening curbs on lending and investment to keep a lid on inflation. the government is also trying to cool off the overheated real- estate market. but international markets still view the slowing of china's growth with concern, as the world's largest exporter, and helps drive global economic growth. european and u.s. stocks fell with the news of the weak data. >> to the markets now. the european debt crisis continues to cause trouble. our correspondent is at the frankfurt stock exchange. >> this post-easter week was a difficult one from the beg

support the economy, it will fall well short of the massive stimulus actions that were required three years ago. >> the big question mark, of course, is europe. weaker eu demand for chinese goods could refrain a growth track on the world's second largest economy for some time to come. >> certainly if the the u.s. holds up, that could also act as a counter balance. plenty of things to discuss. let's get out to research fellow at the east asian institute here in singapore. thank you so much for coming into talk to us. these numbers are really confounding everybody out in the markets today. number one, if there's a positive, maybe investors market watchers have been getting too fearful about the 7.5% growth level that premiere wen highlighted earlier in year. what is your take on what exactly is happening to china one month after another, these mums are just confounding us. >> i think the chinese economy is no doubt slowing down at the current moment. and we can see from this trade figures that you willy china's economic fundamentals are deteriorating month by month. this quarter's trade pigs actually on the surface is not that bad. but actually will this is probably becaus

, the broad commodity indices are not behaving in a way which is consistent with a rebounding chinese economyd if you look it at the broad slew of data, it seems to point to an economy which is still decelerating. the latest indicator, we were watching them carefully over the weekend because we were hoping to get a little bit more enlightenment out of them, of course what we got was one indicator up, one down, so no help whatsoever. the will chlt sbc seems to be the one people are focusing on, it has a little more government -- it has a little bit more credibility, and the other is government sponsored. two ends of the same telescope. with weaker indications of weaker exports in europe, i suspect that has something to do with china, as well. >> chris wiley will stay with us, he's our neguest host for t next hour. still to come, total says it may fly experts to investigate its north sea gas haek. we have the latest on that next. [ male announcer ] this is lawn ranger -- eden prairie, minnesota. in here, the landscaping business grows with snow. to keep big winter jobs on track, at&t provided a

continued economic slowdown, others say this could help reduce the potential for a -- of the chinese economy. to see what we can expect for the announcement of first quarter gdp, i asked an economist at standard charter bank in hong kong. >> for the first quarter of 2012 this year we're expecting china's gdp growth to come in about 8.3%. so this marks if true, this marks a bit of a slowdown from what we saw late last year in q4 last year. but then the slowdown is also at a managed pace. we're not seeing any collapse or significant drop off. >> reflecting concerns about the economic slowdown, china's central bank shifted toward easing monetary policy last december. it lowered the ratio for banks for the first time since december 2008. lau says the move has supported growth giving the banks more room to lend. >> china could monitor the april and march numbers on a monthly basis. so if those point to further slowdown, then that could still mean that further loosening is on the cards. they've already done a couple of times with that. and look at the ratio right now. it is still sitting at a pret

a lot of people are worried that the chinese economy is slowing down. that has been the engine growth for the world.d. what did you find in india and what's your thought about the chinese slow down? >> well, the chinese slow down, i think -- i still expect china to grow more strongly than the 7.5% that people are talking about. we have got leadership in transition going on in china that at the moment is making slightly nervous but they understand that 9% is the number that they need to get to the political pressures there under control. in india, the government is really in all sorts of trouble. it's not really an effective government but i think the underlying economy is incredibly strong. so i'm again quite optimistic about both india and china although the mood is certainly more downbeat on them. >> certainly from the highs. matthehew, great to talk to you >> thank you. >> matthew bishop frfrom the economist. >>> from your remote control to your doctotor's office, the chi research officer of microsoft is with me to tell us what computers can do next.

demand really indicates a possibility of a hard landing for the chinese economy also a lot of negative sentiment coming over from the united states where the trading song. a loss of around one percent on a monday this is of course not not good for the global economy overall and that's on the back of a disappointing us jobs data which came back on friday now also rocking the nasdaq is news coming from facebook even though it's not trading yet it said to make its largest acquisition the social network says it will buy the maker of a popular mobile application called instagram the free app allows users to take a picture easily modified with different filters and then share it with friends now the service was founded two years ago and will be sold for one billion dollars in cash and stock. riots move on to other markets in commodities what we're seeing right now is another decline seven week low actually in the oil prices this is on growing crude inventories and on the back of hopes and mystic hopes basically that international talks could reduce the odds of possibility of military action

economy, and that's china. two things of particular interest now. first, the chinese announced last weekend they were widening the band within which the rmb can move, and i'm wondering whether, whether and to what extent that addresses long-standing u.s. concerns about the value of the wan and the way it's allowed to trade and more generally, there's a growing discussion about whether the chinese economy is slowing. it seems to be, looking it's a the latest figures, and so if it's slowing, whether it's heading for what we'd call a soft landing, soft decline or whether there are concerns your analysts have, that you have, that there could be somewhat more trouble ahead for the economy? >> good question. what they've done on the exchange rate and external side is very significant and promising. so let's review what they've done. they've allowed the dollar to -- appreciate against the dollar in real terms of ar 14% since june of 2010. if you look back relative to 2005, it's more like 45%. pretty significant adjustment in real terms. they have begun to significantly loose

with hopes of a stronger chinese economy, dow stocks like caterpillar and alcoa saw some buying. caterpillar was up 4.5%. alcoa gained almost 3% the high hopes for a stronger than expected economy in china in the energy sector, coal stocks were heating up on the hopes of more global demand thanks to an australian coal mine closing. alpha natural resources topped the performance, up just shy of 10%. peabody energy and arch coal each gained more than 7%. the speculation is less australian coal going to chinese steel makers could help u.s. coal miners. while google was one of those in focus after the closing bell, so was coinstar, the company behind the red-box d.v.d. rental kiosks. after closing weaker by 3% in the regular session, the stock shot up 13.5% after the closing bell. that would take the stock to a new all-time. the company preliminary first quarter results were stronger than expected. the company also raised its full year profit forecast. it was another busy session for new stocks. one seeing lots of trading. forum energy technologies makes products for oil and natural g

imports and exports is such that it's creating concerns about a hard landing prospects for the chinese economy. and now let's take a look at what's going on in commodities and understandably light sweet and brant are correcting now this is actually on the back of optimism of basically a prospect that international efforts with reduce the odds of military action over in iran and therefore political risk would be lower when it comes to commodities over on the currencies markets we are seeing the euro weakening just a notch against the greenback whereas the ruble is pretty much the same against the dollar and increasing versus the euro. weakening versus the euro around twenty kopeks. and now let's move over to the u.s. markets where of course we did see a session of declines on monday on the back of the jobless report that making headlines on the nasdaq was a company which is not even trading at the facebook's i.p.o. is coming up in a few weeks but it has already made its a largest acquisition to date the social network says it will buy the maker of a popular mobile application instagram now this

question is that so much about the taxpayers' money maintaining it is a chinese economy five very many people are turning to facebook's timeline to share all kinds of experiences and moments others are concerned about the security and safety of this new. more news today violence is once again flared up. these are the images the world has been seeing from the streets of canada after. china operations are the day.

was short of expectations as eight point four was forecast so this indicates basically that the chinese economy could be heading for a hard landing and that's disappointing and versus what's going on in the united states let's just take a look at the dow jones and the nasdaq are coming off some very hefty gains that we've seen on that wednesday and on thursday the down half a percent and more than one percent also not providing any optimism of financial reports from wells fargo and j.p. morgan chase over in europe this session on friday also ended on a very pessimistic notice specially in frankfurt which was down more than two percent led by banks and this is of course coupled with worries about the state of the economy about sovereign debt about foreign costs notably in spain and in its in the. in russia pretty different story pretty much all week long the nice legs out of correlation with the global markets up by a notch this is take a look at what was moving really nice now well financial stocks were depressed as everywheres burbank for example was down no more than one percent let's take a

just granted loans to south sudan for example how do you think this is going to bang was the chinese economywell you know the china. some of the western countries that makes show call for an eight china is motivated to make investments that are mutually beneficial and obviously they have a vested interest in the oil so these are then so they did they'd been pretty active in africa in many places in africa and all of which is based on a mutually win when. they help with the local infrastructure and getting a return from their investment in the in the resources all right george co-founder of company international strategic alliances thanks very much for your insight you're welcome pleasure. well they consider themselves descendants of an ancient tribe that's been in existence in the promised land for thousands of years for some their journey back has taken years by the end of the pilgrimage say they were faced with government oppression in the very place they thought of as home parties policy or points. deep in israel's negative desired other women serve an ancient people trying to build a mod

economy and the chinese economy but the news coming from europe seems to be overriding all of counting signs of growth from the u.s. and china and they're of course the world's largest consumer of crude so as you can see the light sweet that is a down as is the i came moving on for you we're going to have a look at the european markets as you can see is a completely different viewpoint to the russian figures we looked out for the. most posting red arrows is that like that is that digging into negative territory now we just have in the last. thirty minutes or so the unemployment rate coming out from the year i say now of course all seventeen countries increased the tempo point eight percent in february compared to ten percent in february last year so it's a slight is a slight dip for them but it is no good at all really if we look at spain there is now twenty three point six percent which is quite concerning actually i was staying with european news for now a little ways the sovereign wealth funds because his exposure to european markets forty one percent of the six hundred billion doll

and the hand sank is down on the basic new prospects of chinese economy increasing for a hard landing because imports and exports have been growing slowly due to low in the west and. in commodities we are seeing a continued negative movement this is a seven week low now but good good side of this story is that it's on optimism that basically chances of a military conflict over in iraq are decreasing at least hopes are such that international efforts will lead to a decrease in diesel. and in currencies we are seeing be a euro declining slightly versus the dollar those high a bond yields and the russian ruble before are also declining both currencies given that there's no support from the markets. and that's the way the markets look at this hour and let me just remind you in fifty five minutes time marino will be here to bring up a rory many thanks indeed see you tomorrow. part of still to come here and i'll see the headlines and right after that the kaiser report it seems. to. me. wealthy british style. sometimes it's like. market trying to. find out what's really happening to the glob

demand and that's indicates enforceability a very hard landing the chinese economy. moving over now to u.s. markets of course very important. all markets around the world are down more than one percent at the end of monday's session and moving the nasdaq actually right now is the news coming from a stock which isn't trading yet in a few weeks facebook will only have its i.p.o. but it's already making headlines as is has made its largest acquisition today for social networks as it will by the maker of a popular mobile application called instagram the free app allows users to take a picture easily modify it with different filters and then share it with friends and just know this in less than two years a value of the company is one million dollars become facebook will be paying. in cash and stock. and finest take a look at currencies the euro is now losing slightly value versus the dollar where's the russian ruble is losing value against both currencies just the not sure against the dollar and around one third of a percent versus the. and in oil it's declining it's a se

if the chinese economy does roll over, however, i don't think it's going to have a huge impact on the. or europe as people are saying. and the main reason for that is i think we've become more insulated in europe post crisis. >> so we're seeing them implement a bunch of different measures to ease of landing. >> yeah, it's a totally different economy there. it's less market base. it's more state driven. what these people really want to do is avoid at all costs high unemployment. they have to create 25 million or so jobs a year just to say even. so it's a very, very difficult tenuous situation for them. growth rates below 6% in china will feel like a fatherly steep recession to the chinese and so look for the government to do everything they can to stimulate. but remember, in china, they have to use 4 x to stimulus because it's not a market based economy. >> and that was a component in the pmi that was perhaps the most disappointing. the question for an investor is where that day it take, what are you supposed to do with the commodities sector at the moment shall because china is a swin

coming up on the a halftime report," has the chinese economy bottomed? what stephen roach is telling the "halftime report," and our traders will tell you how to play it, next. >>> want to beat the street? then you'd better tweet the street. twitter.com/cnbcfastmoney. now one of the most followed sites in business news. show recaps and exclusive realtime updates from the traders. and when you tweet us back, we put you on tv. follow the "fast money." looking for a better place to put your cash? here's one you may not have thought of: fidelity. now you don't have to go to a bank to get the things you want from a bank. like no-fee atms -- all over the world. free checkwriting and mobile deposits. now, depositing a check is as easy as taking a picture. free online bill payments. a highly acclaimed credit card with 2% cash back into your fidelity account. open a fidelity cash management account today and discover another reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. >>> welcome back to the halftime show. let's look at copper here, trading at a three-month lo

last year stocks are currently trading in the red over concerns about a slower growth in the chinese economyn and wells fargo is making record money on mortgage fees posting a profit this quarter a heated protest over the closing of a south side mental health center has ended with several arrests. mental health advocates and patients are angry about mayor emanuel's plan to shut down six clinics nancy loo has more from the woodlawn neighborhood 23 people were arrested overnight half of them are said to be released in particular those with mental health issues ... police took action just after midnight making two dozen arrests and ordering the dismantling of all barricades and tents in and around woodlawn clinic that is slated for closure this month on the 30 f it's saving the city money but critics say that it will endanger public safety and these patients who rely on the treatment and the medications here city officials said that mental health services are actually getting expanded in spite of these closures organizers know there were willingly arrested because the clinic closure devastating

it shows the chinese economy is slowing down but they are hoping for relief in europe's debt crisis and meantime the world bank is readied to announce their new president. they are indicating a slightly higher opening but a couple of things could take it down and disappointing from city court of appeal, they posted a product and you can see what happens as we go the closer to the opening bell. >>> a webby. pleasanton point and polls point smart phone shows they are trained in cpr when they need their help. >>> time now 5:21 set for a groundbreaking in santa clara in just a couple of days and rumor already about big plans for that venue. >>> in a surprisingly large number of people who say they never use the internet,... [ man ] when i went to get my first new car, my dad said to get a subaru because they last. ♪ he drives a legacy, but i'm nothing like him. i got the new impreza. maybe i should have picked a different color... [ male announcer ] the all-new subaru impreza. experience love that lasts. ♪ . >>> mostly 70s and a few lower 70s. >>> one in five adults never use the internet.

take a listen. >> translator: just as it is impossible for the chinese economy to continue a growth rate of over 9% for the next 30 years, chinese banks will witness their profit growth gradually coming down to a reasonable level starting from this year. >> as china shows clear signs of closing down, how will this impact your loan growth this year, where do you see demand coming from? railroad i think the chinese economy is growing at a normal pace. in the first quarter, we made more than 232.9 billion yuan in new loans and that is actually 24 billion yuan more than the same period lasts year. >> when you hear wen say the monopoly needs to be broken, are you worried about the shakeup? >> translator: i totally agree with premiere wen that we should break the monopoly. i think the essence of premiere wen's comments is that he wants to see a healthier more diversified and more multiownership financial system so as to enhance the efficiency of the financial services. this is exactly what i wish could happen. in a healthy economy, you have to have sufficient competitiveness and anti-monopoly

>> the chinese economy softening has crushed a lot of the prices of global commodities, whether it'sopper or gold. but with all of that occurring in a lot of other commodities, we're still seeing a fairly surprising and i think unpredicted firmness in the price of oil and price of gasoline at the pump. not only is china showing a little bit of economic slowdown, it's not like we're rocking and rolling in the u.s.a. either. so if you've got a soft global economy, i'm very surprised gas prices, oil prices, have stayed where they are. >> michael, just give me this quicklily. here's the deal, folks at home, as i said, any bump in oil prices is too high and it happens every year. time for summer vacations, from summer to labor day, the prices go up. what gives? we wonder does all those other factors we talked about, do they matter? >> well, that's what you and i talked about at the beginning of this. does anybody really know what's going on? a lot of people think the price of oil stays up because of big oil and lobbying power and things like that. at the end of the day, people that might

and we need to ask ourselves of how much exposure there could be a given company to the chinese economyr most of 2011, it was impossible to own banks. they had the troubled euro and we tried to analyze the banks away from europe or the over stressed french and spanish counter parts, well we have our heads handed to us. owning tech, when tech is depending on europe. as much as 20 hch -25% earnings. a analysts will not let them get away with it. if you are at the end of the call, you will hear one out of every two or three questions about europe. asia, one out of two questions about others, if you want medicine, go through the previous calls of your company. if the questions are about europe, you know you are in for a bruising next time. that is what the analysts are focusing on, that is what they are forcing the companies to talk about. as correlated with europe as tech and bank stocks are, it's china that owns the smoke stack companies. go listen to the earnings calls of caterpillar, check out the calls of peabody or others, owning these stocks is like owning a piece of the great wall o

think it is a combination of events, it is the world demand, as well, so, for example, as the chinese economy continues to chug along at 8 percent growth as you continue to have growth in india and other markets, more and more people are using oil and gas and you have more people driving and that, obviously, creates a full on demand. >>neil: do you think you and your colleague are to blame? by not coming up with a budget, both sighteds play this game, republicans and democrats never getting the financial house in order oil is priced in dollars and it costs more dollars to buy oil, and it could be as simple as you, in washington, not getting your job done. we look like a joke on the world. it cheapens our dollar. it cheapens our image. and it sends gas and oil prices soaring. >>guest: now, you are mixing a couple of things. i agree with should get our fiscal house in order which is why i support the bipartisan approach getting our budget deficit down through a combination of cuts, but, also, through revenue, including a lot of big tax loopholes. but i do not think that the current budget situa