so many managers are underweighted. something good happens you might get a tectonic shift that is brings money into a give sector. sure enough, it worked a little bit, at least in one group, the banks. but it backfired big time with the industrials. wow. that makes contrarian investment too hazardous for me to tell you to do. what happened? as soon as the industrial managers started talking about their businesses -- the ceos, what did they say? they said things were weaker than people thought. they hinted that things are so soft they can't make the earnings estimates that the analysts are predicting. the culprit? repeat after me. europe. of course europe. so what happens? even though the stocks are underowned, many of them who did own them immediately panicked and sold. they sold them anyway. that's right. the shareholders didn't say, ooh, nobody owns these. i'll hold them. no, they said, ah, get me out! i don't want to own industrials. get me out! that's why caterpillar, 3-m, honeywell, united technologies sold off. i

underweight industrials. when you see severe underweighting like now it means if anything good happens out of the oil situation there will be, indeed, a mad dash to add to underweighted groups. that's how rallies happen. wow, i hate the industrials, but i have to buy them all. things have gotten better. now that you understand the thought behind the contrarian mindset here, let me tell you what i think of it. nah. i think it's wrong. i don't even think it matters. it's a really treacherous way to invest. we've had giant show cases of banks and industrials. coming to new york, dog and pony shows, strutting their stuff telling you why you should buy our stocks. you would think it would be a terrific time to make that contrarian bet. so many managers are underweighted. something good happens, you might get a tectonic shift that brings money into a given sector. sure enough, it worked a little bit, at least in one group, the banks. but it backfired big time with the industrials. wow. that inconsistency makes cont

going to 8% and then dramatically underweighted tech and overweight health care.s weightings and what they own and a great way to be able to say, look, i can beat the s&p by 1% little less tech and more finance. like a big paortfolio. go own mcdonald's. don't own for you and then goldman downgraded it at 85 don't own. to me it was like, own. >> the greenberg stock rating system is own, don't own. >> underweight. overweight. market perform. >> there you go. >> fifth thing. navistar, the sharks are circling. what is your take? maybe jim has a take. >> oh, oh -- i'm sorry. >> no. we touched on it yesterday talking about the sharks circling the company. >> that is a great piece. >> we have the -- >> great piece. >> a piece on cnbc. >> have you looked at page 25 of that -- >> thank you. this is a slide. >> look at the stock going higher. why? everyone's decided to -- that's another one of those stupid things. risk on. risk. >> i have never said that, by the way. >> i know you haven't. you know how stupid it is. stocks is risky. cash is not risk. what does that mean? th

we're a little bit underweight in euro and equities but more underweight in u.s. equities.ropean is staggeringly cheap even if you strip out financials and everybody has been going into the u.s. because that is seen as a safe haven. the trouble with that argument the bond and currency but if you push up u.s. valuations to the extent they have been, you're not going get the safety because your implied return will be much lower. >> there's a string of read thread to what you're saying called debt. >> absolutely there is. we still like debt. yields have fallen a lot. but that's exactly what you would expect to have seen in that japan situation that afflicts most of the developed world more so than the eurozone because of the single currency and because you have the public sector. still very much, in fixed income or fixed income like stocks. cyclicals is part of the same story. >> we got to go because we have a date with the break. >> groupon will be sitting down with shareholders and investors have been unable to get a deal on this stock which is down 50% from it's ipo price c

let's start with morgan stanley, downgrading research in motion to underweight. you know d. you tell me? >> news flash. >> they say the only way r.i.m. remains a viable, is a fraction of its size. the stock is down 7% today, 68% in a year. do you have any quarrel with this call? >> ty, this is a tough stock to trade. i was caught with my hand in the cookie jar at 12, but the corporate structure problems they have is reminiscent of yahoo! they're dragging their feet. 9 to 6 is another 33%, so i'm staying away. it is in trouble. >>> netflix here, another stock that has had its own share. the firm putting a $6 price target. we believe the risk/reward is more balance -- one nice way to put it. it is downward estimating by 45% over the past three months, man. >> you want to talk about an absolute beatdown, this was an $300 a why are. but no doubt about it, they did get through it. right now, as they bring this original content streaming that could help them with a lift. $62 as a 52-week low. you could see a bounce. >> a $67 start on the stock, look at the price. it's $66.69. c'mo

>> we are underweight u.s. treasuries.t of a developed country sovereign debt has a weight position. underweight -- >> are you actively pursuing treasuries? >> no, we haven't changed our stand for quite sometime. we have a very small position for sometimes, we find it in invest men bonds and municipal securities. >> i want to add for the panel the idea if the fed does do qe, i would not be surprised to see a piece of that mortgage backed securities, any piece out there worthwhile for the fed to affect mortgage backed securities. >> i know we've talked about that before, steve. we could get the call any time. ken volpert, if you had to buy anything fixed income, do corporate look attractive. >> corporate attractive, commercial backed, munis look attractive now. >> that's a big spectrum. can you narrow it down a little more where the credit spectrum are you buying junk? >> not junk. investment grade credit, single-a, bbb, corporate bonds. cmbs high quality aaa sector and munis. munis in ten years 115% of the yield of treasur

nearly 20% of children are underweight. 32% suffer from chronic malnutrition. the officials called for 198 million dollars to address critical humanitarian needs this year. the u.n. has only collected about 40% of this amount. many foreign leaders are reluctant to provide the aid. they are concerned the aid doesn't reach those who are really in need. >>> president ha mad karzai is calling for an end to international air strikes in afghanistan. he said the operations must stop to protect civilians. but nato commanders don't entirely agree. our report from kabul. hideki yui. >> reporter: karzai told the news conference on tuesday that afghanistan and the united states have agreed to prevent the recurrence of such a tragedy. >> no bombardment of civilian homes for any reason is -- is allowed. it is completely banned. absolutely banned. absolutely. >> reporter: the announcement comes in the wake of last week's air strikes by u.s. and other international forces in the province that killed 18 civilians, mostly women and children. the international forces said they be

. >> we're advising clients to slowly undo their underweights on equities and we see opportunities, evenope companies that we feel are safe, offer dividend yields, have strong balance sheets. and so from evaluation perspective, are looking very attractive. especially the eurozone actually you see real valuation calls out there. if you you take a look at the uk market, if you take a look at some of the companies in the the uk like vodaphone yielding over 8%, in this environment where you have negative interest rates, pretty much everywhere in the world except for japan, investors are going to have to start looking for some sort of yield and whether that's dividend or in corporate credits or in real estate, they'll have to find ways to preserve their capital and seek growth. >> scott, this is tim here. i have a question on your 1.24 for euro-dollar. is there any scope for concerted quantitative easing by the ecb and were that to occur, can don't you think there's a considerable down side below 1.20 for euro dollar? >> that's where the our currency experts have on their targets and our view

you are underweight all of those. we in danger of this confidence steadily rising. >> in the last two recoveries at this time. >> i think that's going be our biggest theme is slowly steady rise in confidence. it comes at a time when everyone is used to it. >> jim, we seem to be coming at this at a time when prepares to br going into something worse than we expected. how do you reconcile that? >> i think that one thing i notice about europe is that to me, it's no long aerocrisis status. it's all about surprise. i think it's more of a chronic problem. europe looks a lot like japan of the 90s. that thing collapsed last year during the wave of investor fears about europe. and then it recovered through march of this year. we have had this reintensification about europe. you are comparing europe to japan. one government made one decision where sit a political decision. so y hands around the political uncertainty? >> well, but multiple governments never made a good decision to get themselves out of it. it was the second larg

equities, underweight u.s. income. hopefully they will come to some solution that takes europe out of the headlines here. >> you guys have to have a plan regardless of what happens. the retail investor is mia. you have a problem in europe. you've got the jobs numbers that was absolutely horrible and a market stuck in neutral probably isn't going to do anything. how do you invest, nathan? >> you don't try to make a little money here, a little money there. all of you has to be not on greece but in terms of what happens with the european central bankers. and it's moving to germany. when those banks run out of money, you're going to see a liquidity crisis. >> are we seeing money come out of the greek banks and find a home in the german bank? >> yeah, absolutely. that's going to be a big problem. i think that the solution is going to be somehow you stop the drain by saying, let's have an fdic for europe and otherwise they are going to have a much bigger problem. they will talk about the imf and before you know it we will ta

the 6-month-old bear cub was found by the side of the road last month and in pretty bad shape, underweightnd weak. >> veterinarians yesterday gave her a checkup from her head down to her toes. aside from a possible skin disease, she's okay. it's not known what happened to her mother, but in about a year, she will be released back into the wild. >> look how cute. >> as they're picking for ticks. >> those cute little ticks on a cute little bear. >>> coming up, the hidden health hazards found in fashionable women's purses. >>> and later, happy birthday to britain's prince william. and he's about to get a gift of a lifetime. you're watching "world news now." [ male announcer ] eligible for medicare? that's a good thing, but it doesn't cover everything. only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. so consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement plans, they pick up some of what medicare doesn't pay. and save you up to thousands of dollars in out-of-pocket costs. call today t

i don't want to overstate things because jpmorgan still has an overweight rating, not an underweightating. i'm not implying they've pulled it, but they've got a lot of negatives. they seem to have a much dimmer view. and they did dramatically cut their price target from $160 to $134 after coming back from their trip. what's the problem? at least according to the jpmorgan gaming analyst, did they just not have a good time on their vacation? maybe the guy dropped a ton of dough at the tables. maybe lose at the slots, crap out at the craps? no, in fact, the jpmorgan analysts are seeing a big decline in the amount of money being thrown around by high rollers. they predict v.i.p. growth at 6% to 8% in may. that'll be down huge from april. that is very worrisome. the v.i.p. business has been deceleraing since the third quarter of last year. and that is bad. these v.i.p.s are a big deal. they account for 40% of the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. a little more than 40. jpmorgan doesn't see this v.i.p. slowdown as a blip either. they're up against tough compa

we have been underweight the euro zone. there could be a pop.so undervalued that if you get good news seeing a pop and in the sure it's sustainable. >> it's interesting, bill. talking about the third outcome. they have got to vote again. as i wrote last night on cnbc.com, when will they vote again? they'll run out of cash in a matter of weeks. by then it's a hard default. do you expect greece to hard default on its sovereign obligations? >> well, we expect greece eventually, brian, to leave the euro zone and that is tantamount to the same thing suggesting that greece will leave the zone and initiate their own currency and that's a default effectively, whether on the establish existing obligations, hard to know the it's 12 cents on the dollar and the market expects them to default. >> from the currency point of view, andy, you know, i'm just wondering at the end of the day, considering that whatever happens there's still structural problems, growth issues, how does europe back on the growth path? is the safest place to be the u.s. dollar? >> peop

suffering a downgrade to underweight $7 price target.ead of the earnings target on thursday. trouble with rimm continues with restructuring and concerns that the company may be up for sale. then anything chip related or seem write related today under pressure as well. take a look at broadcom and intel and call cqualcomm. bio tech no exception. vertek is taking a hit along with other names good performers. last week we are seeing profit taking here as risk is coming off the table. >> thank you very much. equities getting hammered today. while the markets continue to react to headlines out of europe. listen to this now. cnbc contributor dan greenhouse says the looming fiscal cliff remansz the number one concern. >> mine, too. how can investors protect themselves against head winds from both sides of the atlantic? dan greenhouse joins us with sean from jefferies. good to have you on the program. dan, let's talk about this. bill and i have an ongoing bet here. i said i do think they are going to come to some kind of an agreement before the e

>> well, we are underweight china for a number of reasons. 75% of the chinese economic market is stakedrprises. what we have going -- >> oh, i'm sorry. we lost him. adrian mowat with good insight while we could on the phone from hong kong. over at jp morgan. >>> this morning, analyzing the latest headlines out of chesapeake. our kay kelly is there and checking in with her when we come back. [ creaking ] [ male announcer ] trophies and awards lift you up. but they can also hold you back. unless you ask, what's next? [ zapping ] [ clang ] this is the next level of performance. the next level of innovation. the next rx. the all-new f sport. this is the pursuit of perfection. all in one account. keep watch on the markets. or use our exclusive tools to help find ideas. it's powerful, easy-to-use technology for trading stocks, options, and futures. keep trading whether you're at home, in the office, or on the go. optionsxpress, the broker smart traders deserve. open an account today at optionsxpress.com. >>> >>> chesapeake's board facing off this morning. vice president of energy research wit

you have an underweight on base metals and minors. will you hold on to that?he fundamental argument is that china is shifting there investment led growth to consumption whether he had growth and that means the came moddedities will be very different. i think what they're trying to do is consumption stimulus. there will probably be some investment in there, as well, but the marginal return is going down. so they need to stimulate the consumption side of the economy. easy to build trillion dollar airports. more difficult to stimulate capital. but we think longer term the story is a growth consumption story and that's not metal intensive. >> great to have you on. come back soon. [ male announcer ] the inspiring story of how a shipping giant can befriend a forest may seem like the stuff of fairy tales. but if you take away the faces on the trees... take away the pixie dust. take away the singing animals, and the storybook narrator... [ man ] you're left with more electric trucks. more recycled shipping materials... and a growing number of lower emissions planes...

didier, you're still underweight japan. the sales tax plan, do you read this as a favorable thing from an investing point of view, make you any more optimistic on japan? >> having a tax increase in japan is an achievement considering the quagmire, the political quagmire that we have there. and in absolute terms, we are not talking about the sales tax that we have in europe which is close to 20%. so it will certainly not kill the consumer and when we have a tax increase and then the consumer will go back to the underlying pattern. what is interesting in japan if we compare japan and europe we're kind of double the growth in japan and in europe. it's something that we were not used to. we become positive on japan so that's -- >> if there was any risk would japan deliver in the first quarter when germany's dax? >> yes. i think on the short term we can see balance in japan mainly driven by the balance between the currency market and the equity market. >> briefly, what happens to the yen? stays strong? >> i think very short term

in fact, we're underweight japanese equities currently. >> to what extent -- this is a classic politicalam but. you increase sales tax. how is the effect from that spending likely to stack up against the rebuilding sxh reconstruction effort n your view? >> it's hard to say. i mean, i think that you always have to be aware of equivalence to the extent people know taxes coming down the road. you wonder to what degree they'll save. this is i nation of savers naturally. i think there's a challenge. they've been pushing -- the japanese have been pushing on a string for some time to try to create demand or even inflation. you know, i think it's going to be a challenge. >> they won't really stop saving. bear in mind, all they save is supporting their debt market. stop people saving, then they'll have problems with their own debt. >> 200% of gdp, i would say that's going to be a problem. you have the dependency ratio going upside down in the next ten years on that's probably in the next few years. that's going to be a challenge for japan as well. i mean, our view right now on the tax cut -- or t

know how overweight or underweight you are and check in with a medical health care provider. >> we mayered this but is there an eating disorder that is more common in older women than, say, younger women? is it the issue of obesity? >> obesity, overweight, binge eating, purging. the underline factors and the psychology behind why we may compensate with food. almost 7 0% of women say they think about dieting every day. 67% say it negatively impacts their lives. we have to think about underlying depression, maybe what we're not dealing with in terms of transition at 50. people's lives change, divorce, empty nesters. certainly a lot of people are stressed. and to deal with the underlying psychologist of why you may overeat or undereat so you can become healthier. >> that's one of the remarkable things about this study. it shows, actually, the huge numbers of women that carry these questions about body image and self perception right into adulthood. 36% said they spend at least half of their time in the last five years dieting. >> there's a lot of pressure. sw so what happens is you might

to be long risk assets, whether those are high yield or equity assets and you want to not be too underweightcheap are. but the world's you want to try to pick up some return, not fail to participate in either the equity mark or the spread market. >> peter, thank you. we aushl appreciate talking to you. >> pleasure. thanks. >> coming up, we'll take a look at stocks on the move on the trading week and more from our guest host harry wilson. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 checking the charts. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 looking for support, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 resistance, breakouts, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 a few other tricks that i'll keep to myself. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 that's how i trade. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and i do it all with charles schwab, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 because their streetsmart edge platform tdd# 1-800-345-2550 helps me trade quickly, intuitively. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 staying on top of the market is key! tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and the momentum tool, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 it lets me do it at a glance, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 so when things shift, i'm ready. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 then to track the stocks i have my eye

arguably with stocks, there's more of a natural tendency to be long and perhaps you want to remain underweights it's more of a two-way game and i think you want to be more neutral. >> they told me i could keep talking to you guys or have more time with bon jovi so we'll see you later kevin, nick, thank you. appreciate it on the trading block. >> thanks, guys. >> coming up, the second richest band behind u2 earned $125 million in 2011 and front man jon bon jovi knows a thing or two about business success and joins us after the break. "squawk" rocks in two minutes. ♪ i'm making my money do more. ♪ i'm consolidating my assets. i'm not paying hidden fees or high commissions. i'm making the most of my money. and seven-dollar trades are just the start. i'm with scottrade. i'm with scottrade. i'm with scottrade. and i'm loving every minute of it. [ rodger riney ] at scottrade, we give you commission-free etfs, no-fee iras and more. come see why more investors are saying... i'm with scottrade. ♪ ♪ ♪ why you want to tell he how to live my life ♪ >>> "squawk box" is rockin' out this morning with the mus

normally republicans are underweighted in exit polls. they were in 1992. they were in 2000.ay long, people walked around who had access to the exit polls thinking kerry had beaten president bush. so the lesson there is, even the polls taken on election day when they have a pure sample of voters, they're wrong, too. >> steve: all right. larry sabato u a a pleasure. thanks very much for joining us from uva. >> thank you, steve. >> steve: larry, be watching because coming up next, we're going to get out our bowling shoes and go bowling on the plaza in just a moment right there. but right now, let's check in with bill hem who are probably has a bowling shirt or two in that closet. >> no gutter ball, steve. good morning to you. big show this morning. ed rollins says this is terrible news for the president. he's going to explain all that in a moment. darryl issa, does he finally is the smoking gun in fast and furious? we'll talk to him live about that. herman cain has a new job. he stops by, and why so many leaks on national intel. is that smart? martha and i will see you in ten m

you're understandably right now in your sort of overall view of bonds are underweight europe. of that so that you would become overweight europe? >> well, i think a more bold move by policymakers, particularly governments and central banks, to buy, for example, italy and spain. when you look at italy and spain trading 6%, 7%, that's not sustainable in a world that's -- europe's heading in recession. the problem is that a lot of banks own that sovereign debt. that's leading to a credit contraction in europe. so europe, the headwinds are pretty significant. we would need a much more all-in policy response. >> do you expect that? do you see anything that leads you to believe that's coming? >> we don't. because it ironically encourages moral hazard. i think we're going to see europe be pretty weak for a while. >> bounce along the bottom. >> bounce along the bottom. that's why we're favoring other areas. >> your fund has a wonderful five-star record. a yield of about -- >> 5.2%. >> 5.2%. beautiful, juicy yield. do you think corporate bonds are going to outperform corporate equity o