and now to larry sabato on the veep short list. larry, welcome.e a -- five, is that right? >> you have the top two right there, tim pawlenty and rob portman. and governor jindal, and senator rubio of florida and wounding out the top five, congressman paul ryan from wisconsin. any of those five would do a lot of good. >>eric: a lot of people say, with about chris christie? >> he should run for president and will eventally. i don't think he is vice presidential material. i don't thin you would think so. he would be on the front page more than romney. i don't think you want that in a vice president candidate. >>eric: what is the most, governor romney is looking right now and going through the list. what is the one thing he needs most? >>guest: no controversy. no problems. the vetting that the press will do and the opposition democrats will do, should in the turn up anything that will take this election off the track of the economy because the bad economy is the winning track for mitt romney. >>eric: larry, i am looking at your bullet points on the po

joining me from virginia, the professor of political science for the university of virginia, larry sabatoeen. arizona and minnesota. tell us why these might be potential swing states. that's a surprise, by the way. >> it would be. let's say that mitt romney picks former minnesota governor tim pawlenty to be his running mate. i think that puts minnesota on the docket for both campaigns. they'll be campaigning there. they'll be spending real money there. that would be bad news obviously for the democrats because minnesota actually has the longest democratic streak of any state. only the district of colombia has voted democratic more often. the last republican to carry minnesota, richard nixon in 72. it's gotten close. >> eric: the arizona is what i want to get to. with all the back and forth between the obama administration suing the state of arizona, et cetera, how could that possibly go to obama? >> well, go back to 2008, if the nominee, the republican party, hadn't been john mccain from arizona, i think barak obama would have carried arizona. but this is not 2008 anymore. it's 2012. even

jon: larry sabato, from the university of virginia, with the crystal ball out on thursdays. . >> thank you. jenna: jon, our very own dr. manny alvarez, he has never been one to jump on the organic farm raise bandwagon. that is not his thing, all right? jon: all right. jenna: at least not until today. new data on chickens, antibiotics and your health and a super bug has the doctor changing his tune, next. so easy. freestyle lite needs just a third the blood of onetouch ultra. really? yep, which is great for people who use insulin and test a lot. max and i are gonna run out and get them right now. or you can call or click today and get strips and a meter free. test easy. jenna: a new report raising concerns that women who eat chicken, which is quite a few woman in this country, may be at risk of developing some very difficult to treat infections. medical researchers say chickens raised with antibiotics may transmit a so-called super bug to humans. dr. manny al have rest, senior managing editor at foxnewshealth.com. >> we're talking about e.coli. there are a lot of antibiotic re

larry sabato on the key senate races this fall. martha: out of control tractor-trailer, oh my, headed for a gas station. how that happened. look at that. oh, boy. bill: this guy definitely will need a bigger boat. shark sightings on both coasts and one attack. find out where. plus what you need to know before you hop in the water. martha: paddle fast, buddy. >> i was out there fishing with my nephew and sitting in on it and our feet dangling over the edge. we know they're out there. awesome to see they're actually in there looking for food. i think they just mistake, miss took the kayaker for something to eat. last season was the gulf's best tourism season in years. in florida we had more suntans... in alabama we had more beautiful blooms... in mississippi we had more good times... in louisiana we had more fun on the water. last season we broke all kinds of records on the gulf. this year we are out to do even better... and now is a great time to start. our beatches are even more relaxing... the fishing's great. so pick your favorit

and larry sabato on how this is sorting out in a touching point in the campaign. at do you think, larry? >>guest: well, i certainly grow with governor huckabee. it would be nice in this interval which we are going do have in the campaign without negative advertising, without attacks on the campaign trail could somehow be extended. but it would be nice if cancer were cured and hunger were abolished. we will have a decent interval, maybe until the beginning of the olympics, toward the end july and the olympics carry us for a week or two and we will be back to normal. "normal," meaning bad in the campaign. >>neil: i tried to think, how you define leaders, both those who are president and of all capacities, or those who want to be. how they handle something like this and i thought of bill clinton and how he handled the littleton shootings and many argue that is a defining moment for him and a reversal if him. i want to go back to this quickly. and your reaction. >> you can help us to build a better future for all our children. a future where hatred and distrust in long

governor romney fails to release all of his tax records but in pile on for fixing the economy and larry sabato is not surprised but i have to tell you, larry, this issue came up out of nowhere like someone said, yeah, this tax thing where do we stand on that. what is going on? >>guest: well, it is one thing right after another that the obama campaign is focusing on with respect to romney because, remember, they want to change the focus from president obama and his economic record over four years to the choice involved: will romney make a good president. is he qualified do make a good president. is he hiding anything, so it is bain capital, it is tax returns, it is gas, one thing right after another. whether people will care, that is another question. >>neil: we started the show, professor, with all these party types bailing out on the president, sky diving out on him if you will, and i love the video, myself, some have asked about it, and congressman and governors, specifically, if we have this video, i love the video, but the issue is, as this early a stage, is this the kind of stuff we see,

larry sabato, from the university of virginia. larry, good to have you on. >> thanks, jon. jenna: a fireworks fiasco in a major city. why what was supposed to be a spectacular display lasted less than a minute. ok! who gets occasional constipation, diarrhea, gas or bloating? get ahead of it! one phillips' colon health probiotic cap a day helps defend against digestive issues with three strains of good bacteria. hit me! [ female announcer ] live the regular life. phillips'. [ female announcer ] live the regular life. a little snack. on a wednesday. at 2 am. get that great taste anytime with kingsford match light charcoal. st $14.99. start with soup, salad ancheddar bay biscuits then choose one of 7 entrees plus dessert! four perfect courses, just $14.99. come into red lobster and sea food differently. jenna: you know the drill on july 4th. you get everybody ready, your kids, your friends, your spouses. hopefully, just one spouse, right, not plural. you know what i'm saying. get the cooler, blanket. you wait for hours in the perfect spot. maybe pay for parking. and then this

let's ask the director of the uva center for politics larry sabato. so he is joining us by known. thanks for being with us. >> nice to be with you. >> we had the resign 86 of republican thaddeus mccotter a few days ago. where do we stand right now as far as the makeup of the house. >> it is 242 republicans, 193 democrats. of course, 218 is the major number. that is a their row majority of the house. >> shannon: best case scenario for the democrats. we heard a number of them and to the supporters their goal is to take back the house, we heard it a lot in recent months. what is the best case scenario for democrats? >> gaining about ten seats. they are not going to gain the 25 net seats that they need to gain. i don't say anything definitively in july but i think it is likely that republicans stay in control of the house and it won't be a particularly close margin. >> shannon: best case scenario to republicans. >> they could come close to maintaininger that current majority. 218 is a narrow majority. they are at 24. 242. we have democrats in the worst ca

professor larry sabato joins us right now from the university of virginia.much about how this president, he's got these different demographics and he's just checking them offment i've got women, check. i've got this, i've got that. is that what is what's behind these changes to welfare and immigration? >> i can't get inside their heads, but i can certainly see the effects. take latinos, for example. back in 2008, obama carried hispanics and latinos by 36 percentage points much it was massive over mccain. guess what he's leading by right now among latinos and hispanics? 48%. so it's having some impact, obviously. these decisions have increased his support and there aren't many sub groups like hispanics. obama has fallen among many other key subgroups, between 2008 and 2012. >> steve: the big question is, will it -- okay. so he's very popular with these particular demographics, but do the latino, the people who are getting the welfare, are they going to wind up going to the polls first tuesday in november? >> i think that's one of the big questions, is the ent

i don't know what it means but larry sabato knows. >>guest: it means it is tied.e have election models that use other models and they show the same thing. this is likely to be a very close election. how close? we don't know. but when we say "close," it means in midsummer it is in the obvious which side is going to win. often it is very obvious. >>neil: i think you are wrong. i think you have done this your entire life and i think this election will not be close. and i will bet you a carton of chunkcy monkey, but, anyway, i don't think it will be close. but that is my opinion. what are we to take from this? one time it was wrong with what, carter and reagan? >>guest: you didn't say which way it had to go for the chunky monkey. i want to get this on tape. >>neil: you said on videotape that it was going to be close and i think you are wrong and i think you should be listening to me and not to you. but go ahead. >>guest: well, look, the essence of the election depends on what we see in the economy from here through october. it certainly doesn't right now look optimist

larry sabato is the director for the center for politics at the university of virginia. it was interesting to me before we talk about those three states you say nevada, michigan -- i'm sorry, montana and missouri, nevada, montana and missouri are ever so slightly leaning republican right now? >> yes. you have one republican incumbent there, dean heller in nevada. but he was appointed incumbent. now we think that race is tilting to him a bit. the democrats control both montana and missouri with incumbents. jon tester in montana, claire mccaskill in missouri. in particularly the case of missouri will be very surprised if claire mccaskill is reelected. that is a tough state for a democrat. in montana, my guess is that mitt romney will carry montana by 10 or 12 percentage points. well it's tough to get reelected on a ballot where the opposite party's nominee for president is doing so well. jon: it is also tough to get elected in massachusetts if you're a republican, isn't it? >> you're darn right and that is scott brown's great challenge. if this were a midterm election, jon

. >> larry sabato says negative advertising increases cynicism, but it may be riskier for obama. >> iffor uplifting, optimistic hope and change and the next campaign on the negatives of your opponent, you know, most people pick up on the contradiction. >> sabato believe negative ads may have less impact than usual because no matter what they are telling pollsters most people already decided how they will vote. it dun mean the candidates will stop using them. be? >> bret: wendell goler live on the north lawn. thank you. >>> former president bill clinton visited nelson mandela today in south africa on the eve of mandela's 94th birthday. the antiapartheid icon is frail and no longer appears in public. a huge celebration is planned in south africa to mark mandela's birthday. going negative in a big way, as you heard from wendell's report, look at the presidential race and push back today when the fox all-stars join me after the break. an accident doesn't have to slow you down. with better car replacement available only with liberty mutual auto insurance, if your car's totaled, we give you

since 1992 according to larry sabato both democrats and republicans have not mentioned who their vice president will be or announced it until days before the convention, outside of the 2004 race when john kerry named john edwards as his vice presidential nominee but that was 20 days out so we are more than a month out, from the convention, and considering thee cons are it will not be exciting. considering the dnc convention is falling apart, day-by-day, romney announcing early might be a good thing considering the go cuss would be on him for the convention and not a new vice presidential nominee and some of the cons are it gives the media and other people another full month to vet whoever romney chooses and see their defaults. >>neil: it problems a chance to keep anyone who would be on the shortened list of v.p. wannabes on the reservation, right if they know they have not been chosen they are less inclined to support so supportive, right? just being cynical. >>guest: also, you know, what is important is the news cycle. if you come out now in july when congress is still in session, th

. >> reporter: university of virginia political analyst larry sabato says the state was the bulgariapolitical universe when it was reliably republican. now that it's competitive, it's paris. mr. obama and mr. romney will both be spending a lot of time here. bret? >> bret: wendell goler traveling with the president in hampton, virginia. thank you. as mitt romney referred to with carl cameron, president obama is accused tonight of trying to end welfare reform. as we know it. it involves the change to the system strict work requirements. mandates that came from the last democratic president. chief national correspondent jim angle reports on what the change is and how it was revealed. >> the obama administration issued new rules for welfare assistance that conservatives -- conservative rips to shred popular ones put in place by bill clinton. >> obama administration is gutting welfare reform to claim the authority to waive work requirements. work requirements, of course, were the heart of the success of welfare reform passed in 1996. >> president clinton embraced republican ideas and work

and larry sabato down at the university of virginia will be along as well.st: >> this is the full court press. >> well, bill, dancing with the stars announced the competitors for its upcoming 15th season the first time a top-rated, all-star season. >> you are oozing that term a little loosely. they include boast past champions and runners up. the pamela anderson christi allen and our favorite bristol palin. >> bristol palin. >> wendell tucker. >> tucker. where is tucker? here is the deal. okay. look. we dodged the bullet by not getting sarah palin in the white house. you know who won that election? bristol palin. now we are stuck with this air head. >> got a t.v. show now. >> a t.v. show. you know, she's got -- i don't know. all of this publicity on the cover of these teen magazines. she has a book out. right? she has become the go-to person for advice on how not to get knocked up in the back seat of a car. it's just ridiculous. such an air head. and what, on a t.v. show her little boy says the "f"word. >> yeah. not the "f"word. >> we know what that is. and

larry a what toe, the politics -- larry sabato, the politics guy, says the senate sea peers likely torrowly divided with democrats holding on by a seat or more likely republicans gaining technical control by a seat or two. is the senate more in play in the wake of thursday's ruling? >> it was already going to be in play. there is no question about that. this became harder for republicans with olympia snow retiring up in maine. but overall, the numbers speak for themselves. this is going to be a major defensive play for democrats to try to hang on to this majority. and i think if you have seen some of these swing state democrats, claire mccaskill was running away from the news media in missouri thursday. she did not want to talk about obama-care. if the republicans are smart, they will be asking them what do you think of the obama-care mandate tax? what do you think of the supreme court's decision? democrats say there is as reason they don't want to talk about it. they know the polling is against them. there was a story in "the hill" that showed vulnerable republicans are eager to forc

. >> paul farhi and larry sabato, much thanks. >>> coming up, must-see/must-avoid, katy perry's new moviet too raw and reveal too much? or does it not go far enough? that's ahead. >>> web stories, we're ve got $250,000 users who could lose internet access on monday because of the virus. it was spread by a fraud ring shut down last november so the fbi says if your pc was infected and not scrubbed, it could lose internet access next week. this might affect 45,000 computerses here in the u.s., now to break. ♪ [ male announcer ] ok, so you're no marathon man. but thanks to the htc one x from at&t, with its built in beats audio, every note sounds amazingly clear. ...making it easy to get lost in the music... and, well... rio vista?!! [ male announcer ] ...lost. introducing the musically enhanced htc one x from at&t. rethink possible. . >>> "tech watch with"now, it will be smaller than an ipad but bigger than an iphone. get ready for the mini ipad. two reports claim apple is working on the mini with a screen less than 8 inches diagonally. after having so much success with kindle ereader and kin

congressional committee and a lot of big houses, all of them in the house coming up this fall and larry sabatol and, says at most, democrats will pick up 5 to 10 seats in the house and not regaining a majority by his estimate. what is your best estimate as you try to make sure the g.o.p. picks up more seats in the house. >> there are prognosticators who indicate wild swings, from losing 12 to 15 to an even match and i believe the way i look at it, the republican party will not only hold the house, and pick up seats, we'll net pick up seats across the country because the across understands nancy pelosi wants the gavel back. and, i believe that the tax increases, obamacare, and, big government would be right back and we need a balanced budget and do away with obamacare and need to make sure we get america back to work. i think the g.o.p. will win. >> shannon: all right, we'll watch and see the numbers and love to have you back when they come in. congressman, thanks for coming in. >> thank you. >> shannon: the story has captured america's house, two little girls mission ang in iow. and police thi

larry sabato, director fur the center for the politics at the university of virginia.warning signs? >> well, you know, party leaders on both sides, jenna, will tell you the toughest thing they have to do is to get their own people to focus on electability in primaries. they want them to think about which candidate would be the strongest candidate in the general election. so you've got some republican primaries coming up in states like wisconsin and arizona where there are stronger and weaker candidates for the general election. so, obviously, the republican leaders hope that their activists will choose the stronger candidates. we'll see. jenna: it's very interesting, you talk a lot about the establishment versus the outsider in the republican party, and i'm sure some of our viewers here electability, larry, they think, no, we don't want the establishment, we want the rebels, we want the people who are going to change things in washington. what has that tension done to the republican party over the last, let's say, three years or so? >> well, of course, it's people's co

larry sabato, hello, dr. crystal ball guy, how are you today?rouble because of a bad economy. a challenger who has put his party back together a lot more quicker than most people expected. most people were saying divisive republican process would make a fractured republican party for the general election. romney is getting 90% of the republican vote. president obama is getting 90% of the democratic vote. we've already got a highly polarized election in november. that tells me it's going tab close contest. >> gretchen: part of it people don't pay attention maybe towards the convention or afterwards when we get into the fall sciences. you also point out that even though these latest reports show that more and more people are becoming independents. as high as 40%, you don't believe that. why? >> because it's fashionable to say you are independent. steve doocy says that all the time. nobody believes him. they shouldn't believe him. independents. the truth is they are hidden partisans. they are being democrats or independents and they vote that way t

. >> steve: larry sabato has been on this program a couple of times, the esteemed political analyst andtax the rich strategy generally doesn't really work in a general election because people don't like the idea of raising anybody's taxes. because they figure they raise the rich's taxes, eventually they'll come for me. tax the rich at the bottom of the list, the number within thing you want, the next president to do, create some jobs, followed by reduce corruption, the deficit and there you can see, it was number 12, tack the rich. >> brian: it's behind address global warming. >> steve: yeah. >> brian: so that's a little surprising. affordable college, overcoming gridlock in there and improving healthcare, which is interesting because most of the country does not approve of the healthcare coming our way. >> gretchen: i thought it was fascinating because you have to wonder if they're behind closed doors in the obama campaign strategy room deciding whether or not they'll continue with what continues to be the headline of their campaign, which is tax the rich, that everyone needs to pay th