the message won't be delivered with the usual pomp and circumstance, citing whether kmps the obama campaignrday scrapped plans to hold the speech in the bank of america stadium. in other words, no balloon drop. the move gave republicans an opening to take a jab at the president. a spokesperson for the rnc said, quote, after promising to hold the event at bank of america stadium rain or shine, suddenly team obama is moving inside after questions about enthusiasm for the event. what's the real forecast for the speech in 40% chance of lies and scattered executions. youch. guess those balloons meant a lot to some people. joining the panel now is "time" magazine and msnbc senior political analyst, mark ha halperin. mark? >> only 40%. >> hey, not so bad. let's talk about the president and the expectations here. he's had a team of surrogates to tee it up for him tonight. i guess what is your -- how bullish or bearish are you on him closing the deal as it were tonight and really sort of turning a corner in terms of the narrative of this election? >> they've done remarkably little previewing of the