one that straddles the iowa/wisconsin border and four in ohio. lls you everything you need to know. the president still holding leads in iowa and in wisconsin. so what does that mean on the maps? this is the new cool stuff. you've seep n it this way. let me show it to you another way. my kids' favorite app is stack the states. the importance. the midwest firewall. let's give mitt romney everything except the midwestern states and watch this bar graph move up here. so there's colorado. let's slide over nevada. let's slide over the southern states, virginia. north carolina, florida, and, look at judd fwrgregg, he said s guaranteed, new hampshire. look where it puts them now, 267, three short. so the firewall ohio, wisconsin, and iowa would put you there at 271. so you see the importance of this and the fact of the matter is when you look at nevada right now, if you put nevada in the obama column here, slide it all the way over to show you that we can, you then see wisconsin becomes pretty important if you bring those ten over and then he has to brea

wisconsin. really is interesting this could be the first year where ohio would go for the democrat and wisconsinould go for the republican. first of all, this is the auto bailout. that plays well for are obama in ohio. where are it saved a lot of jobs but not in wisconsin where the auto bailout failed to keep open the gm plant in janesville. and scott walker's union reforms succeeded and then paul ryan the native son who could help out a lot. >> i also think there is a snub value. i remember when there was a recall vote and the mayor of milwaukee the democrat wanted president obama to come and he flew from washington to mississippi for a fundraiser over -- from washington to minneapolis and flew from minneapolis to wisconsin again over the state of wisconsin and failed to stop to help. >> a clear snub. and republican ares are really organized in wisconsin. they had the big recall election. they have gotten together for a major partisan fight not all the way back in 2010 but just a few months ago. >> if they he come close and don't wen a lot of people will be wondering why the romney campaign did

yeah, wisconsin, ohio, virginia, i mean, all the reports you hear from people paying close tension tot is that the ground game is big, massive, and strong on the republican side, and let's be honest, it's going to be big and massive on the democratic side as well. enthusiasm will be higher on the republican side. that's the way when you have a out party, they are energized in a close contest. you have to have mechanics, the mechanical things going on on both sides, and they are. lou: serious big numbers, we appreciate it. quickly, 30 seconds, your views on big bird and whether or not he's going to become an avatar within this campaign. >> you know, look, you put your finger on it. this is a supposed notary public-profit organization -- non-profit organization making a lot of money and assets. you know, if they -- and in return, we give them $8 million worth of money, which the united states government doesn't have that we borrowed from the chinese to give it to them. big board, if they were a for-profit entity, could still what they do for public broadcasting. the president talks abou

overall climate, too much work for him just to win all these coin flips in a row if he drops ohio and wisconsin. >> statistically the case that no republican has won the presidential without ohio? >> in 70 years. >> why it's special. ohio is normally a bit republican leaning relative to the consensus. >> yes. >> so a democrat usually has more paths without ohio than republican would. ohio's population is not growing as fast so it has fewer electoral votes than it used to. some paths available to romney without ohio but it's not how you would draw it up if you're in boston trying to plan for how would your election night go. >> you actually isolate the tipping point states and say ohio has a 36.5 chance of providing the decisive electoral vote and we talked about that. wisconsin you put at a 9.8% chance of providing the decisive vote. that is interesting to me given everything that's gone on in wisconsin. talking in the break about the scott walker factor, labor discussion. people that voted to keep scott walker in office that are supporters of the president. the other complicating factor paul r

of the seven, if president obama wins ohio and wisconsin, he goes over the top winning reelection. on a conference call today, obama campaign manager said we are tied or ahead in every battleground state and we're not leaving any state where we're tied or ahead. senior strategist david axelrod said we know what we know. they know what we know. i'm confident we're going to win this race. we'll show who is bluffing and who isn't in two weeks. bring it on. one more thing is certain. president obama is baring down in the final stretch. >> we're accustomed to seeing politicians change their positions from like four years ago. we're not accustomed to seeing them change from four days ago. >> let's turn to karen finney, msnbc political analyst, and e.j. dionne, msnbc contributor and author of "our divided political heart." karen, you first. what was romney's strategy last night and how poorly was it executed? because it looked to me like a total surrender. it was like go out there, don't make a mistake and let's turn to the next two weeks. what about that? >> every single time schieffer s

if president obama can hold on to nevada, wisconsin and ohio, he still wins with 271 electoral votes. so with mitt romney out on the trail, that is in part a disadvantage for president obama, but it's too hard to say right now. >> hogan, governor romney is continuing that cam taken to go forward in states not impacted by hurricane sandy. it was really interesting, joe scarborough and his observations this morning he made on "morning joe." take a listen. >> this was mitt romney's best weekend, and it stops. the momentum stops. you don't know how it freezes, but it's a new dynamic into the race and changes everything with with a week to go. >> let's talk about this. not only could this stall romney's momentum, but it also brings up something that mitt romney was forceful about during the primary debates. he sad voe indicated shutting down team na and letting states handle disaster relief. watching what's taking place with sandy, know we have 12 different states that declared states of emergency and also the district, washington, d.c., does this pose a problem for mitt romney if he gets

i'm looking at ohio, wisconsin, iowa, new hampshire, virginia, florida and he won. he won in those states because he was talking from the gut. and people are really wanting to hear where do you stand when it coulds to somebody like me? he won. >> who said he won in any of those states? where is this coming from? >> you. that's where it's coming from. you're the one who said all these people are saying he smiled too much and laughed too much. >> this is truly bizarre. >> you are talking to your base. i'm talking about the swing states. you can have alabama and texas. i don't car what they thought of joe biden. >> i don't even know what you're talking about. >> i'm talking about the election, the swing voters. >> let me give you some of the immediate reaction from people who watched the debate. cbs news asked the question after the debate who won. 50% said joe biden 31% said paul ryan. cnn had a poll as well. who won? paul ryan 48%, joe biden 44%. cnn parentally republicans were oversampled more than usual in a cnn poll. so that may be why that number's high up. and i

ohio, wisconsin, those states, if the president carried all three, he'd have his 271.t need any of the other states and it's that issue that is sort of connecting with the average person. >> can the president use a town hall to exploit this or not? it seems like it's not the best -- might not be the best setting. >> well, the town hall format favors sympathy over aggressiveness and yet everything that's being said is that the president needs fto be aggressive. i suppose they are talking about how to strike that balance and makes points that you need to make and energize the base in way that you need to do but not go over a line in front of a live audience on this stage. >> you've seen him interact more with voters. the president has not done that. he doesn't even interact with the press. these are big events. he'll deliver pizzas and certain things like that. but he hasn't done town halls. it seems like the romney folks have been practicing out in the open. >> i've been with romney for months now. he did this a lot during the primary town hall events. >> they stopped.

as you mentioned in that early voting in ohio and wisconsin and iowa is also very strong. e.j., is that going to be enough? is this a sign of momentum that's going to carry through for president obama? what do you think? >> first of all, i think there's a big debate out there who has the momentum. i think romney had it after the first debate and started losing it after the second. but what karen said is important. african-american and latino turnout is going to be a very big deal, which also means that voter suppression efforts on election day are going to be a very big deal. and i think looking ahead, if you are in the obama campaign or in a civil rights group, being ready for what could be a difficult election day is one of the things that should be right at the top of their to-do list. >> this just into us. you may have seen this video of romney and president obama talking on the stage after the debate last night. we are told that tag apologized for saying that he wanted to take a swing at the president during their second debate. he told a north carolina right wing tal

all there is to it all the trends are that way of course the president is very much in play in wisconsin ohio as well we'll see how this plays out i think we should do like ireland did and so all our voting machines for scrap metal and that he was brian thank you for being with us today thank you thank you. ten years from now we will all look back at this upcoming election and will realize that it was here that the progressive wave of reform that surged forward at the turn of the twentieth century and made life better for billions of people in this nation over the last hundred years finally broke and receded backward into the abyss will realize that it was here when the original corporatists like the duponts of the morgans and today's corporatist like the coax finally won their ruthless century old struggle against progressivism gives equal economic opportunity. for all and his equal civil rights for all who reside in a nation where the old are no longer cared for with social security and medicare or the impoverished young are no longer cared for with medicaid and food assistance where women

that the bain capital has put you in here's an ad about mitt romney and since that's airing in wisconsin ohio and pennsylvania take a listen to those. he is being created made a fortune from it even today remains and students can break them saying the shipping jobs to china and forcing workers to train the chinese replacements the week before they came in they took the american flag down that flew inside the plane and in the week after they left the court about what were supposed to be were americans sourcing jobs taking down the flight to want to build robots to hide from the truth. did it trouble you joanne that since saddam didn't get mentioned in any of the debates despite all the talk of jobs being outsourced to china and yet it did a little bit i went early hoping i'm the last. that it would have and i thought it was well you have you in the other workers there have appealed directly to mitt romney asking him to to do something with the company that he created in that he still owns a lot of stock in and that he will profit from you know sending these these these good jobs offshore what

it's wisconsin, ohio, and new hampshire right now. and then romney -- everything else. florida, north carolina, virginia, iowa, colorado, nevada. that's the one that i think is most likely of the three. by the way, in case you are wondering, here's one plausible scenario that would include maine. as you know, see, we even have this nifty ability -- it is possible you could see maine split its electoral votes. the second congressional district there a little more rural. if that happens, then -- and the president -- and romney grabs one there and the president gets nevada, colorado, and ohio, there you have it. you get the rest -- iowa, wisconsin, florida, north carolina, virginia. there's your scary scenario. it is not good. if any of these scenarios actually occur -- the debate of the next president would be decided in a wonderful institution that america loves -- the united states congress. it's happened before. it was the election of 1800. party politics were brand-new and instead of voting for a ticket, each elector was allowed to catst two votes for presiden, being

if you take the eight states we have as tossup and frank gives three of them, wisconsin, ohio, and new hampshire to obama, just those three, he guest guests 26. you give the other five states remaining on the map to romney, and guess what, he's at 269. in a crazy race, a crazy end to it, but there's still two more maine and nebraska that would come into play, bret, if this map holds. >> maine and nebraska break out their vote by district. last time around obama carried nebraska. this time around there's a new poll showing romney in striking distance. nebraska was redistricted and thought to be comfortably republican and in the romney camp, but maine if it were to actually, you know, this scenario came to pass would result in an election in which romney would get to the magic 270 and obama would be at 268 all because one congressional district in the northern part of maine. now, again, this shows the centrality of ohio. if ohio which has moved from lean obama to toss up ends up in the romney category, then romney wins a comfortabl comfortable el college victory. it's a sign that look, t

if they lose ohio, wolf, and you look at iowa and wisconsin, they've got to win one of those states and so far they're behind it. and what's behind it is the gender gap which so far is really not working in romney's favor. women, in iowa and wisconsin by double digits. and that's mitt romney's problem. >> you've been doing some reporting x ryan, on nevada right now. unemployment has gone down slightly but it's still above the national average. what do you see there? >> i went there to try to figure out why in a state with 12% unemployment has obama led every poll this year. it's just a demographic story there. the democrats say the adult latino citizen population has grown 39% since 2008 and they've worked for the last four years to really register those voters and get them to turn out for the democrats. so that it could be a firewall if romney runs the table with florida, north carolina, virginia, colorado and new hampshire, then obama has to hold wisconsin and ohio and win either nevada or iowa. so that to me looks like the sort of division right now. those first states i mentioned, t

. >> reporter: the billboards have been popping up in cities in ohio and wisconsin. 85 in milwaukee and 30 in columbus and another 30 in cleveland and 31 in cincinnati. protests started almost as soon as they went up, demanding the signs come down.

that president obama seems to have a firewall in those midwest states, and if he wins iowa, wisconsin and ohio, he surpasses 270 electoral votes. the romney campaign thinks they have a better standing in iowa which our polls suggest which could complicate that midwest firewall for president obama. 18 days ago, the nail-biter is just right. >> what about new hampshire? >> in new hampshire i think it's also going to be a really close race. you look at almost all of the battlegrounds, richard, that are out there right now, and i think we'll talk about a very, very late election night. we were just breaking down the 269-269 electoral vote college tie a couple of days ago. we all need to be prepared for something that's going to take us into november 7th, maybe even beyond. >> that would be a long night for you, my friend. what's behind the discrepancy with the numbers we've seen so far in the polls, though? >> well, the one thing -- you look at our nbc/"wall street journal"/maris poll of iowa, we show 34% of likely voters say they've already voted, and president obama is winning by a very wide mar

romney come pains in wisconsin and ohio. -- romney campaigns in wisconsin and hue high. d hue -- and ohio. >>> robert griffin iii sent redskins fans in a frenzy once again. the rookie quarterback did not show any ill effects from last week's concussion. griffin threw for 182 yards and one touchdown against the vikings. he also used his legs. he ran for 138 yards and two touchdowns. the highlight, a 76-yard run here that gave the skins a 12- point lead in the fourth quarter. quarter. . >> you know, in certain situations and i felt like i had the guy franked and i took off running. the rest is history i got to enjoy the moment, have the guy is flanked and i took off running. i could see my teammates celebrating as i ran for the touchdown. >> the 76-yarder was the longest scoring run by an nfl quarterback in 16 years. the skins won 38-26 and are now 3-3 for the season. >> we needed that after everything going on with the nats and orioles. >> you know who olds hold the record, kordell stewart, against the carolina panthers. >>> good news for many kids in our area. it involves

it's ohio, wisconsin and iowa. ld all their lean states, they are 72 without those three states. so it's about shaking off one of those three. it doesn't have to be ohio, you know. look, it makes their job harder. it means more states. and that's why they're doubling down in ohio. they believe they've made up a lot more progress in ohio than some of the polling has indicated. and the fact is they're spending a lot of time there. let's see what romney's schedule is over the next two weeks. but there was one other tell i feel like we're in the middle of and why you can tell that i feel like it's the obama campaign in a defensive posture trying to sort of hope this campaign -- this election happens just before they go below the 270 mark and why romney looks like he's on offense. when you looked at the battleground states three months ago, we said if they're spending -- the month of october in florida, north carolina and virginia, advantage obama. if october feels like it's about the midwest, iowa, wisconsin, ohio, adva

and wisconsin, he has to win one of them. he's not looking that great in ohio. n't think he's looking much better in wisconsin, but i think wisconsin might be in some ways a riper target for him. yes, it hasn't voted for a republican since reagan in the landslide in 18944. however, it came close in 2000, a fraction of a point. when we say it's a blue state, we're not talking massachusetts and rhode island here. i think if you look at -- we talk about that slide from 14 points that the obama margin in '08 down to a two, three-point race right now. it's dramatic slide. there's a greater concentration in wisconsin than most states of the exact sort of voter demographically who is turning on obama, white working class and white male. we had an abc poll nationally it shows romney's share of the white male vote up to 65%. maybe there's a possibility there. the reason why wisconsin a little more than ohio and i agree they're both taifrable to ohio but a little more is the extent they have a positive impact, it's in the home state. maybe a point or maybe two. if you're a

max sevillia, naleo nos hemos enterado de los posters en ohio y wisconsin.sabemos de algunos llamados en virginia y en otros estados, en florida. y claramente estamos muy preocupados con lo que esta pasando en maricopa county porque ya son 2 traducciones que en ingles la informacion esta correcta y en espanol no lo esta.representant partidos se han quejado de estos esfuerzos, pero organizaciones hispanas dicen que hay que estar alerta. clarissa martinez, con. nac. de la raza puede votar temprano, puede votar por correo o puede votar el dia de la eleccion. para asegurarse que tiene informaicon lo que en su estado esta disponible puede llamar al 1888-ve y vota. la asociacion nacional de funcionarios electos latinos le comunicara denuncias al departamento federal de justicia.max sevillia, naleo nuestro hotline recibimos informacion, recibimos quejas que van directo al gobierno federal para que pueda intervenir de manera legal. standup: fernando pizarro, washington d.c. el mensaje mas importante para los votantes hispanos es que reporten a las autoridades pertin

la temperatura del termometro electoral en tres estados en el centro del mapa....se trata de wisconsin, y ohiohacer historia en esta eleccion, pues de sus votos dependeria en gran manera desempatar la carrera por la presidencia a este pais que es, precisamente, como colocan las encuestas esta semana a mitt romney y barack obama. ambos candidatos han hecho campaña allí casi sin parar esta semana con la esperanza de que al finalizar el dia 6 de noviembre, su nombre resuene como vencedor para presidir el pais. y es que las mas recientes encuestas revelan que new hampshire, virginia y florida se inclinan en su voto hacia el lado republicano incluyendo a carolina del norte, donde -ironicamente- los democratas ratificaron al presidente como su candidato para un se trata de muchas gracias mario y maria rosa... luego de una semana bastante estable, nos espera una bastante cargada en cuanto a las condiciones del tiempo se refiere.... pero vamos a echarle un vistazo a las condiciones actuales en la ciudad capital.... tenemos un cielo mayormente nublado con una temperatura en los 71 grados... el viento e

we are not wisconsin-ohio, thomas jefferson wrote in the declaration of independence. "our rights as people come from nature and nature's god, not from government. the government works for us and not the other way around. that is the heart and soul of the american dream. our founders created this and every generation of veterans and secure this. and we are in their debt of gratitude. we owe them a debt of gratitude. thank you to all of our veterans for that. 10 days ago. -- 10 days to go. the debate is occurring. on november 6, you make the choice. as you know, just like these to say as gm goes, so goes janesville. as ohio goes, so goes america. i think you know that. let's think about not just the obligation we have on november 6 but let's think about how we feel on november 7. let's look forward to when we wake up and turn on the tv. what is it that we want to see? do we want to see four more years in front of us that we are staring at like the last four years? or do we want to see 10 more days of this stuff and we are back on the road to recovery, real recovery with

colorado new hampshire and the race is more of a tossup in states like iowa, nevada, wisconsin, ohio. the question is do you have enough time do you have enough money? governor romney had a good first 17 days of october raising $118 million. the question is inside the headquarters in boston they are trying to figure out how do we deploy these resources to put these states away and keep the momentum going and that requires expenditure money and more importantly the expenditure of the candidate's time. the biggest determinant assuming they have equal amounts of money spending on equal amounts of television it comes down to two things the quality of the message and second where you put the candidate. the biggest -- >> explain that. >> the biggest impact you have assuming the television wars are rough roughly owe quall levels comes down to how often is the candidate there? it helps them break through all kinds of media and gives them a chance to be up close and personal then the quality of the message. i think president obama is making a fundamental mistake. look at the ads up this week.