election night, somebody the going to be gravely, gravely disappointed and shocked at the results. >> matt dowd, such a pleasure to have you on. thank you very much. matt's going to be part of the powerhouse political roundtable tomorrow on "this week with george stephanopoulos." on tuesday night, george and diane sawyer and the entire political team, including matt dowd, will be at election headquarters all night long. full coverage as the results come in. >>> lots of other news coming in. and as always, we go to mr. ron claiborne. >> good morning, everyone. the u.s. has been given access to the suspect on the deadly attack on our consulate in libya. the fbi will be allowed to question the islamic militant that was detained in tunisia. not clear what role he played in the attack that killed ambassador chris stevens and three others in benghazi. >>> more have been diagnosed with meningitis. there's 18 reported cases, bringing the total to 404. in 29 states, 19 people have died. people many are suffering from a second illness, an infection in the spine where the drug was injected. >>> and more d

matt dowd says it is too late to sway voters. >> the last six months in the economy are baked in the perceptions. >> reporter: mitt romney has scheduled a last minute stop sunday his advisers say the president is losing support in pennsylvania. president obama's camp says it is a desperate move. katie marzullo, abc7 news. >>> still ahead, chp rolls into action in oakland. a live report on how they will be helping the police force tonight. >>> police search for a couple stealing mail in broad daylight. >>> the california highway patrol is calling it its first night of lending a hand in oakland a big success. overnight chp joined oakland police in patrolling the city that has seen a spike in crime. >> reporter: oakland police happy to have chp officers on the streets with them to deal with the criminal element. opd has long said if you want to impact the crime rate in this city you have to get cooperation of the citizens. a short time ago, that made a big impact on some elementary schools. the chp helicopter is a serious attention-getter and it did that today at the health and safety f

matt dowd says it is too late to sway voters. >> the last six months in the economy are baked in the perceptions. >> reporter: mitt romney has scheduled a last minute stop sunday his advisers say the president is losing support in pennsylvania. president obama's camp says it is a desperate move. katie marzullo, abc7 news. >>> still ahead, chp rolls into action in oakland. a live report on how they will be helping the police force tonight. >>> police search for a couple stealing mail in broad daylight. >>> the california highway patrol is calling it its first night of lending a hand in oakland a big success. overnight chp joined oakland police in patrolling the city that has seen a spike in crime. >> reporter: oakland police happy to have chp officers on the streets with them to deal with the criminal element. opd has long said if you want to impact the crime rate in this city you have to get cooperation of the citizens. a short time ago, that made a big impact on some elementary schools. the chp helicopter is a serious attention-getter and it did that today at the health and safety f

. >> reporter: matt dowd, abc news consultant, was one of george w. bush's chief strategists. >> i think the republicans are going to have to do a serious amount of soul searching. they've been built for 25 years ago, not for the 21st century. they have to appeal to latinos, women, blacks, and a whole group of other voters they've lost touch with. >> reporter: the numbers tell the tale. mitt romney actually won white voters by the biggest margin of any candidate since ronald reagan in 1984. but they are a shrinking portion of the vote. the obama coalition's growing by leaps and bounds. latinos, for the first time, are now 10% of the electorate. obama won their big time. more than twice as many unmarried women backed obama over romney, also a growing sector of the vote. and the president once again got huge support from young people. so, how will republicans react? >> hey, any of you guys in there want to come sit in my chair today? anybody? >> reporter: a shell-shocked rush limbaugh offered one option. contempt for obama supporters. >> they think that

matt dowd? in the evening which is the divided nature of this country. and the changing nature of this country. right now, mitt romney, there's more conservatives voting than in 2004 when the last republican won. the romney is doing as well among akconservatives. he's doing better than bush did. among white males and women. right now, he's not performing in the states because the country has changed. the country is less white, younger and much different than eight years ago. >> i want to go to ron brownstein. you made a proclamation which i read. and you said that it will be the last attempt to squeeze out a national majority from the white vote in this country. the last attempt by the republican party? >> win or lose, i think people inside the romney campaign understood that they're in a position that they could run as well among white voters as any republican challenger ever, eisenhower in '82, reagan and bush in '88, and still lose. the president's math was pretty sample, he had to win 80% of

. >> rose: i have to excuse you, matt dowd. mother abc is calling. >> the day before the super bowl it will be fun. (laughter) >> rose: go ahead. >> i think the republicans will be -- if governor romney loses in a situation annal us go to the democrats after the '88 election when there was a real question of what is our party going to be to win a presidential election again? they had bill clinton to lead that. ron brown as the chairman of the party. >> rose: in '88? >> from '88 to '92. it's not clear who that would be for the republicans. people talk about jeb bush, i'm not sure he's ready to take that on. there's no other obvious candidate to me right now the big issue now before we get to the elections starting in earnest-- though i agree it starts to some extent on wednesday-- is the fight over the fiscal cliff which will really divide republicans in congress and people like mike huckabee and rick santorum and others who are thinking about running for president next time. people are going to have to choose up sides and if pr

matt dowd joins me to explain it all to us. matt, why did barack obama win this election?voted for him? >> the interesting thing about this race. if you take a look at it over the time period. six months. this race was always at a slight, slight advantage for the president. i think mitt roam was ahead in the popular vote. and then hurricane sandy happened. if you take a really look at this election, the president's approval rating sort of gained ground over the last three months. that approval rating ended election day at 51%. when a president end at 51% they're almost always re-elected. the other thing the right direction country number in the country increased by 25 points over six months, as we went into election day. much better ground for the president to operate under. fundamentally he ran a campaign that targeted certain states. certain groups. and got them out on election day. when he did that, that tea how he won. >> so who was it? >> it was minorities. changing nature of the country. minorities, nonwhites represented the largest share ever in any election in our

stop the divide to solve huge problems that face us. >> matt dowd. what a night.had a long night. get some sleep. >> it's been fun. >> thank you for joining us. a final note, as of right now, abc news determined the florida presidential election is still too close to call. we're going to keep you updated as we learn more. thank you for watching abc new. "good morning america" will have all of the latest results in the morning. we're always on line at abcnews.com. good night, america. jimmy kimmel right here next! a beat driven by the conviction that inspiration can overcome desperation. what does home feel like? it's in the faces of americans who built generations of memories in their home and then saw it slipping away. until friends they have never met, turned out to lend a hand. for more than 30 years, rebuilding together has spread hope to home owners in need. providing free home rehabilitation, making homes safer and more energy efficient. this is a place where you can turn dreams into reality. go to rebuilding together dot org and share the feeling of home. >

distinct paths right now to 270 electoral votes, something that mitt romney does not have right now, matt dowd. >> absolutely true. he can lose ohio, virginia and florida and still win by carrying colorado and nevada and that's the situation. they've been in this situation for weeks and now unfolding tonight just as i say as if the obama campaign had said they thought it would. they said they thought it would unfold this way, preserve the midwest, still win ohio and the biggest county out still only 20% of this county is in, cuyahoga county, only 20% in, that's cleveland and that gave barack obama a margin of 300,000 votes in that one county and that county is still 80% out. >> donna brazile, let's talk about iowa a little bit because that is where we first saw the power of this barack obama ground game. >> i'll never forget that. january 3rd, clinton and by the way we haven't mentioned bill clinton tonight. when i look at this map tonight, pennsylvania, wisconsin, michigan, bill clinton did a phenomenal job campaigning across the country, side by side with president obama, clearly some of the

lets me read this from matt dowd.hat's happened with republicans is they are -- what's happened is -- here it is. let's watch. here it is. >> what's happening with the republicans is they are -- the republican party is a mad men party in a modern family mesh and it doesn't fit anymore. >> "a mad men" party, 1960s in a "modern family" environment. >> they're bringing analog to digital campaigns. voter turnout has changed dramatically as the under class, minorities are starting to vote at this point. and it's changed the whole electorate -- >> look at your state, tom. northern virginia, who has a lot of single women. they come to work in washington. some get married, some don't. they stay there. they work all their lives in washington but necessity live across the river. they vote democrat generally, right? >> yeah, particularly those who are in toward the city. >> what's that about? how are you going to get them back? >> single women across the country have been voting more and more democratic. married women tend to vo

you have the extremes in both parties willing to go over the cliff at the same time you ask matt dowd, senator durbin and graham if they were an anomaly. i don't think they are in the sense that i think they're a growing cadre especially in the senate of members from both parties who understand elements of the deal. >> that's what i was going to follow up on. if there's some way you could substitute truth serum and got everybody to ask the same questions they all know on both sides of the aisle the administration and everybody knows revenue has to be raised. the only way to raise real revenue is increase the tax rate on the wealthy. >> maybe combined with capping -- >> cuts have to be done including defense cuts. everybody knows defense can be cut without hurting our security. they know entitlement reform has to happen and know grover norquist is an impediment. the only good thing he's named after a character from "sesame street" and i hope that's the last we heard of it. >> grover. >> i know. >> i think it goes back to boehner again. i think that there is a centrist coalition to pass

i want to start with matt dowd on the electoral map, matt.ust mentioned the president's schedule for today. and that is his path for 270 electoral votes. wisconsin -- wisconsin, iowa and ohio. that gets him to the 271 he needs even if mitt romney wins all the other battleground states. look at that right there. even if he wins nevada and colorado and north carolina, virginia, florida, new hampshire. he can get there. >> that's the difficulty that the romney campaign is faced with, the path of winning this electoral college is so tight, it's almost as if you have to draw inside straight tomorrow in what's going to happen in the race. and he has to, in my view, if you take a look at ohio, florida and virginia, mitt romney basically has to go 3 for 3 in those states in order to win this race. >> right. the only way he can get around that, somehow if he wins, all his path in winning, virginia, north carolina and florida. let's say he didn't get ohio and wins withes with. then he's got to run the table. nevada, and ohio. >> finally, the long ball,

. >>> let's turn to matt dowd for more on this, our political contributor.obs report, make much difference? >> the economy is already in at this point in the game. the last six months are baked in the perception. i think the jobs report won't have a dramatic effect on this election. >> we see mitt romney in the state of pennsylvania, hasn't gone republican since 1988. democrats say it's desperation. >> hail mary pass for him. he's having a difficult time winning ohio. if he doesn't win ohio, he has to find another route. it's very unlikely that he wins pennsylvania and loses ohio. >> you think it's breaking for obama? >> i think the trajectory has slowly moved to the president after sandy. i think it's moved to him. mitt romney has 48 hours to adjust that. and this week is huge for mitt romney. >> we'll be watching. joining us sunday on "this week." our entire election team. and tuesday night, diane sawyer and i will be here all night long at election headquarters. we'll have a full report as the votes are counted. >>> the animals, so many caught up in hurri

let's go back to matthew dowd, so, matt, something you're seeing that amazed or surprised you. >> onraces unfolded to a large degree much as we expected it to and much of the polling, we still have a situation where mitt romney is leading the national popular vote by 100,000 votes. as more votes come in, we'll see that but we not only as we've talked about have a divided electorate but those who voted against the president -- we talked about this before. >> one of the other things we saw from our exit poll is 91% of president obama's supporters thought he would win. 71% of governor romney's supporters thought he would win and that is -- speaks to the whole idea that people are living in their own cocoons getting information from probably a partisan source that reinforces what they feel already makes it much harder to bridge these divides. >> that's what -- what this country has become, even though it's more diverse and more heterogeneous it's become less tolerant of other people's opinions. people are associating amongst more people that are like them politically and culturally and i

evolutionary on the two sides, and you look back to 2004 and karl rove and that whole terry nelson and matt dowdand all these, they put together a fabulous, state-of-the-art campaign in 2004. republicans really got it. now, conversely on the other side howard dean really revolutionized the use of the web, and then john kerry carried it forward on sort of that aspect of it. but, boy, the bush campaign had it going. and then in 2008 where the mccain campaign had its up and then its down and then a little up and down, but the thing about it is whatever the state of the technology, the state of the art on republican presidential campaign organization efforts from '04 was lost in '08. and had to get effectively rebuilt, this time by the romney campaign. but only after they were able to get the republican nomination in april which was so late in part because of super pacs that basically kept the process going much longer than it ever normally goes. i mean, you know, historically as long as stu and i have been watching this and before that, when a candidate started losing primaries, their donors closed

they've tried over the years, as you know, and i think matt dowd or somebody mentioned that he's trying to organize something. can you comment on any sort of moderate organization to help boehner in the house? >> well, norm mentioned earlier the, you know, a couple moderates that got elected, but the number of -- what were there, 44 or something blue dog, and rahm emanuel did a brilliant job of recruiting many house, purportedly moderate democrats who were elect inside 2006 and 2008. they're almost all gone. and, you know, the rules of the house tend to give control to the leadership of the majority party as long as it has a sufficient majority and cohesiveness within its caucus or conference. and i think, um, you know, on some substantive issues as norm suggested, there can be some problems. and i'm not sure that boehner has committed himself as strongly as speaker dennis hastert did to the idea that you can't -- he won't bring forward anything that's not supported by a majority in the majority party. but he hasn't brought many things forward like that, and i don't sense him, you know,

karl rove, terry nelson, matt dowd, they put together a fabulous state of our campaign in 2004.olutionized the use of the web. john kerry went forward on that aspect. but boy, the bush campaign had it going. in 2008, the mccain campaign was up and down. the organization after its, what they had in 2004 was lost in 2008. it had to be rebuilt by the romney campaign, but only after their able to get the republican nomination in april. it was late in part because of super pacs, which kept the process going much longer than it ever normally goes. as long as you and i have been watching this and before that, when a candidate started losing primaries, other donors close their checkbooks. you run out of money and you drop out of the race. what is happening is, they kept gingrinch going for a while. that is super pacs. the process went longer and longer. romney had to go so much further and longer -- here is a guy who is probably by nature -- when we met for him when he ran for the senate in 1994, that is where he was. non-ideological, problem-solving guy. he has to run so much longer an

matt dowd, they put together a fabulous state of our campaign in 2004. republicans really got it. howard dean revolutionized the use of the web. john kerry went forward on that aspect. but boy, the bush campaign had it going. in 2008, the mccain campaign was up and down. the organization after its, what they had in 2004 was lost in 2008. it had to be rebuilt by the romney campaign, but only after their able to get the republican nomination in april. it was late in part because of super pacs, which kept the process going much longer than it ever normally goes. as long as you and i have been watching this and before that, when a candidate started losing primaries, other donors close their checkbooks. you run out of money and you drop out of the race. what is happening is, they kept gingrinch going for a while. the process went longer and longer. romney had to go so much further and longer -- here is a guy who is probably by nature -- when we met for him when he ran for the senate in 1994, that is where he was. he has to run so much longer and further to the right than he ever dreame

matt dowd, they put together a fabulous state of our campaign in 2004. republicans really got it. howard dean revolutionized the use of the web. john kerry went forward on that aspect. but boy, the bush campaign had it going. in 2008, and it came campaign was-of the mccain cabin was up and down. -- campaign was up and down. the organization after its, what they had in 2004 was lost in 2008. it had to be rebuilt by the romney campaign, but only after their able to get the republican nomination in april. it was late in part because of super pacs, which kept the process going much longer than it ever normally goes. as long as you and i have been watching this and before that, when a candidate started losing primaries, other donors close their checkbooks. you run out of money and you drop out of the race. what is happening is, they kept gingrinch going for a while. the process went longer and longer. romney had to go so much further and longer -- here is a guy who is probably by nature -- when we met for him when he ran for the senate in 1994, that is where he was. he has to run so mu

chance for a moderate house gang to [unintelligible] they have tried over the years appeared at think matt dowd is trying to organize something. can you comment on any modern organization to help boehner in the house? >> 44 blue dogs and rahm emanuel to the brilliant job of a -- they were almost all gone. the rules of the house tend to think -- give control to the dominant party. i am not sure john boehner has committed himself to -- he has not brough many things forward. there are not many mo derate democrats. mikee ne republicans -- castle. unfortunate results for him. correct the problem for john boehner who is a legislator is he did not have a leadership that is behind them on that. there are no more moderate or liberal republicans in the house by voting records. but there are plenty of conservative problem solvers. the problem they have is almost all of them have been told we have $3 million bounties on your hands if you flipped those heads up out of a foxhole. that becomes a serious challenge. it is a question of whether there is any way to free them up a little bit to move in a different