up 4, 5, 6 national polls. win the electoral cleaning, i don't care how you slice it or dies dice it it then something happens. then you get the october surprise which is devastating to romney in this sense. and we know this empirically because in the national polls where romney was up 4, 5, 6 he goes to zero to nine news one essentially. number he becomes irrelevant. he was very presidential in the debates. obama was small. that's reversed. he becomes irrelevant in the storm. number two obama plays the commander and chief. the picture in the situation room. where was he in the benghazi in the situation room, separate issue. nobody is going to ask it. but he looks like the commander and chief. number three and the biggest one. was the christie bear hug. here is the guy who is the most smash mouth, in your face republic partisan, bear hugging the president, praising him how he cooperates. the weakness obama had with the independents has been that he has been seen correctly as the most partisan president of the la

paul, what do the national polls look like? >> two days to go, and we have four polls that are nonpartisan and came out since midnight. let's start with the abc news/"washington post." 48% of likely voters supporting the president. 48% supporting mitt romney. how about nbc news/"wall street journal," pretty much the same story, a 1 percentage point ahd of mitt romney. and pugh research center, they came out with obama with a 3 point advantage. that's within the sampling error. this is just about dead even as we get into the election. >> act what battleground states? >> that's the key here because this is not a popular vote, this is a battle for the states and their electoral votes. we look at those eight battleground states, polls in two of them just came out last night and nee're interesting. this is in des moines, iowa. you have the president with a five-point advantage there and nbc news "wall street journal" maris poll had results that were similar. romney started his day in iowa, the president will end his day tomorrow in i

in the last week, we have twice as many national polls as eight years ago. e, we run, depend ogen the week three or four times state level polls as we did eight years ago. >> the other thing, look, there is a thing called a margin of error. a poll shows bam ball at 50. he could be at 53. or 47. when you have a poll -- this is both numbers. his number and romney's number to be off by three points each. this can be six points apart. >> it could be even bigger. the nbc "wall street journal" poll had nine point advantage in democrats in the poll. that is bigger than 80. 12 will be democratic year than 2008. >> bret: for romney to win tuesday, polls have to be wrong. >> some have to be wrong a little because the vase that close. the national polls in the last, in the last week, 23 polls,be if you average them together. 48.3 for romney. 48.1 for obama. as of 10:00 this morning. so it's dead especially. knife's edge, exciting outcome. >> bret: we said. we want no tossup. joe, first. prediction. here is your map. >> 303 electoral vote for obama. they include on swing

polling giving us a final snapshot of how close the race is. in a general election matchup of likely voters, this is national now, three major polls have it all as a statistical tie if not an outright tie. nbc/"wall street journal" gives the president a one-point advantage. that's a tie. the same poll taken eight years ago, strikingly similar. and george w. bush held the same lead over senator john kerry the day before the election in our nbc/"wall street journal" poll, that's in 2004. in battle ground states including colorado, ohio, virginia, florida, new hampshire, president obama has a slight advantage. he leads mitt romney by 4 points. again, that is within the margin of error. there's good news for president obama on his handing of hurricane sandy nationally, 67% say they approve of the way the president dealt with the disaster. back to the batting ground where tomorrow's election will be decided in iowa with the latest "des moines register" poll has president obama over mitt romney by five points. in new hampshire and pennsylvania, all tied at 47% in both those states. that's according to a wmur and tribune review polls. pennsylvania hasn

that is not part of what the national polling picture is. people put a lot of emphasis on what the horse race polling looks like and use that to render a verdict on polling as an industry and whether it is good or bad or helpful or not helpful. there is a lot more polling to learn what voters are thinking and hear them talk about issues in their own words. >> do you have a final thoughts? >> on the spot again. my big take away from last night is that it was incredibly close. some of that is getting lost in shuffle. it was not a mandate election. president obama is going to have to come to the house and triangulate. he just eeked this out. we have to remember that as we go forward. i am looking forward to how they will react to our new congress and what happens with the fiscal cliff. all of that continues. >> i would love to see what women voters and walmart moms think of all of these new women candidates. maybe there is a sense that having more of women members helps the tenor and washington tone. that is something worth exploring. >> my craz

let's dig in because i think a lot of people will look at these new national polls and be confused by the numbers. the president has a slight edge because by means not decisive enl. after the this first debate though, and we look at the numbers and the polls that came out then, what does it tell you we are right now? >> the president had a deficit in the polls after the first debate, but he's mopped that up and he's been on a role ever since. the polls are close right now. no question about it. you can find any poll to fit your fancy, but i believe it's going to come down to this. to the social media, people being motivated, connected. people in communities knowing they want the leadership. >> we have talked about that. you were making an emotional decision. what does this election really mean to me and in the state of ohio, that's what it's going to come down to. it could be a real fi areas ko, but it's going to be the ten nasty. once you get people there, they're going to want to be there and want to stay there. >> romney has momentum and enthusiasm. last night, even having a firewo

the market rundown is next and we'll dig deeper into our final national poll. , folks, the last one before the election. our pollsters will be here to explain what they learned about this election through our polling. first today's trivia question. who was the last democrat to win more than 400 electoral votes. if you have an election related photo, tweet us @msnbc 2012. we'll show it on air or online. live from democracy plaza here in the heart of new york city. >>> if there's one thing the markets don't like, it is uncertainty. one piece of business and uncertainty ends with tomorrow's election. how is wall street reacting on this pre-election day? becky quick is here for the market rundown. >> reporter: chuck, you hit the nail on the head. wall street hates uncertainty and tomorrow we will go into the polls to it try to decide at least one part of that uncertainty. the wa "the wall street journal" has it laid out today. the end of the election is a win for the markets no matter who wins and that's the good news. that uncertainty will be wiped off the table. t

when you look at the national polls, it is neck and neck. president obama trying to rally voters and get these enthusiastic so that they will get out to vote on election day. >> brianna keeler in hollywood, california. and we'll go back to hollywood, florida, when the president starts to speak. >>> all right, meantime republican mitt romney is conceding nothing to the president. earlier he spoke to voters in the democratic stronghold of cleveland, ohio. no republican candidate has ever won the white house without winning ohio. and romney expects to continue that streak. >> if you believe america should be on a better course or if you're tired of being tired, i ask you to vote for real change. paul ryan and i will bring real change to america from day one. when i'm elected the economy and american jobs will still be stagnant, but i won't waste any time complaining about my predecessor. >> this was the second of four events romney had scheduled for today. next up for the republican candidate is pennsylvania. so america has 50 states, but it's

polls, lead over romney. why the discrepancy between the national survey and the state polls?> the discrepancy is caused by the tremendous number of negative ads that the obama campaign ran against mitt romney over the course of the last six months. a rising tide lifts all boats, but it doesn't lift them quite as far in the battle ground states as it does elsewhere because of all the negative ads that the obama campaign has run. nevertheless, a lot of those states are incredibly close, there are eight states right now that are within less than 3 points. so, who knows which way those are going to go on tuesday. >> paul: there's another a factor here which is interesting in the polling, which is in these head to head surveys in the swing states, president obama typically can't get above 47, 48%, even if he's leading romney by a couple of points, he can't get rise to get to that 50% level and that gives a lot of people in the romney camp confidence that when it comes to election day, or the president is going to increase his vote much beyond that and they can-- and the undecideds

but, i'm by no means certain and there is a striking discrepancy between national polls which tend toy and large by older, more seasoned polling firms and state polls, a number of which are done by less established firms, the national polls have it as a tie and the state polls, as it suggested, battle ground state polls, suggest and indicate that president obama is ahead in nearly all of them. it is -- seems striking that there would be this difference. and we don't know. but, it is sobering, if you are a romney supporter to think he is trailing or, just tied, in so many of those states. could the polls be wrong? i think they could. whether they will be, well, that is what we are waiting to find out. >> chris: jeff, you have been traveling the country for weeks, for months. your sense of where the race stands, 48 hours out. >> things are different in battleground states because of the deluge of advertising, for weeks and months and people in ohio and iowa, florida and virginia have a different sense nationally and the reason, that pennsylvania is potentially in play here at the end, b

he knows those money guys are following the polls we see at the state level by the way national pollse gallop poll is an outliar and one of nine or 10 national polls, the others a different story. >> cenk: the closer we get to election is you guys were alluding to, the more certain the markets become and the more certain polls become. one of the reasons the main reason the polls are not a certainty is because things can change in the next five days, but as we get close to the election, they become more and more certain don't they? >> eventually, you run out of events that are going to change minds or sway people. we basically have a weekend left before the election. the right can cry all they want and jonathan karl say i don't know what's going to happen and scarborough can call everybody who does math an idiot, he can call them idiots until they're blue in the face. romney was in florida and virginia. three weeks ago after the denver debate the thought was those states belonged to romney. the fact that he's here in those states five days before the election tells you he's trying to s

>> first of all, let's did divorce the national polls from the state polls. the national polls point to a a very close contest. as of 8:00 tonight in the last seven days starting last monday through 8:00 tonight there have been 23 national polls. romney leads in 7. obama leads in five. 11 are tied. romney leads with 50% or more in one of them. obama leads with 50% or more in one of them. the average, average them all together, 48.2 for romney. 48.0 for obama. >> sean: so it is even. >> a couple of minor things. let's watch and see what the gallup says tomorrow. gallup has been out of commission since sandy hit the east coast. they went back into the field late last week and they will finish polling tonight and release it tomorrow. see what the likely voter number says among gallup. when we last saw it, i believe it was four points at 51-47 and we will see where that is. >> sean: do you you think sandy had impact? i guess we will find out in the gallup poll because governor romney was 50% for 15, 16 days in a row before they stopped. interestingly there was a

can spend all day every day looking at the polls and monkey with the sampling and look at the national pollsersus the state polls and at this point it's basically fair to say, it's a dead heat and the old cliche we've heard this now for years, it's all who turns out. and talk to the romney campaign and if the voters they expect to turn out on election day and expected all of this time actually show up at the polls, they firmly believe that they're going to win because president obama has not got the kind of early vote absentee vote advantage that he had in 2008. >> and brit, you can find pundits predicting landslides on both sides, but today michael barone came on and said you know him from the elections in the past and anchoring our coverage and projecting a romney landslide and the reason is, he says fundamentals usually prevail, the policies, the economy, and the independents are going to wind up pushing romney over the top big. >> that certainly fits with what has long been my theory about presidential politics, but if my theory were absolutely correct and 100% right, mitt romney wouldn'

(cheers and applause) >> reporter: with national polls showing the race tied up, romney also is drawing crowds in the tens of thousands. in wisconsin running mate paul ryan campaigned with green bay packers fans as he in his home state another battleground. romney also follows ryan in a last minute push through pennsylvania, the state leans democratic but polls show the race has tightened and the romney campaign decided to give it a shot. now more than 20,000 people waited hours in this cold to hear romney speak. and if he could win pennsylvania it would give him a lot more flexibility. but this state is tough for republicans. the last republican presidential candidate to win here was george wh bush in 1988. january crawford, cbs news, yardly, pennsylvania. >> jeff: it takes 270 electoral votes to capture the white house. and our political director john dickerson has been mapping out possible ways to win for both campaigns. john, good evening. what does it look like tonight? >> reporter: well, good evening, jeff. of that magical 270, if you look at the states that are very likely or pre

what we've seen in the national polls and also in the state polls is a little bit of an uptick for obama. i think that the democrats are cautiously optimistic about tomorrow. and mitt romney is hoping that everything breaks in his favor. but that's a long shot. it's a real long shot. so i think at this hour, going into tomorrow, the democrats have a little bit of wind at their back. >> ben smith, what i thought was interesting about that result in dixville notch, the reality is, all the independents had voted for barack obama and not mitt romney. is that an ominous sign for mitt romney? >> i'm not sure i want to read a whole lot into that. i think the absolute nightmare scenario for this election is what you just saw there, something close to a tie, something that does not resolve tomorrow and that is something that is something both campaigns are genuinely worried and it would not be good for the country. >> charles, let's play a clip of president obama in his final campaign speech. this is the last time we'll see one of the great political campaigns in modern american history do his st

but the national polls, the average which is of ten polls, take 22 polls conducted as of midnight last night, romney leads in 12, and obama leads in four and tied in six and romney is at or above 50 percent and obama won and the average of them? 48.2 to 47.5 so that is a sense of a strength for romney that could be expressed particularly against an incumbent. incumbent gets not were more than the number in the final poll. joe: both campaigns believe they can get to over 300 electoral votes because the models are so different. >> if you look at what they think they can turn out in early votes how that adds up with what they can turn out on election day and how many . >>chris: what percentage of democrats will be at polls in. >> what the town -- turn out will be? both have different models. axelrod believes they will win 300. >> and it depends on all the independents. independents will be what make the difference. there are two worldviews. >>chris: when we come back we will talk about the latest jobs report and other factors that could decide who wins the presidency on tuesday. tdd#: 1-8

the national polls have a tie. the state polls, the battleground state polls indicate that president obama is ahead in nearly all of them. it seems striking to there would be this difference. we don't know. but it is sobering if you are a romney supporter to think that he is trailing or -- or just tied in so many of those states. could the polls be wrong in i think they could. whether they will be, that's what we are waiting to find out. >> chris: jeff, you have been traveling the country for weeks, for months. your sense of where the game -- this race stands 48 hours out? >> things are much different in battleground states because of the deluge of advertising for weeks and months. people in ohio and iowa, florida, virginia, have a different sense of the race than people do nationally. the reason that pennsylvania is potentially in play, there hasn't been a lot of advertising, they are experiencing the race as everyone else is. but in the battleground states, i was in ohio, wisconsin, iowa, there is a real sense of

he points out that the national polls are lining up with the state polls. obama holds a slight lead nationally and the real clear politics of average polls. nate says pencils down time has come, and it appears romney has run out of clock. how do you see this race right now? if this many polls prove to be wrong, would you have to remake your entire model? >> i don't have a model, but all the ways you can look at the polls, it's beginning to tip in obama's direction. the national polls show him creeping ahead. the state pols in a number of states that add up to over 270 electoral votes show the president tied or aahead. there isn't a single nonpartisan poll in ohio, wisconsin or nevada that showing romney in the lead. you know, it's possible that the polls could be wrong, but that time of systemic failure is l e likely. >> you and kornacki and others have said there will be a gravitational pull, that one will follow the other. you predicted the state polls would follow the national polls, at least that's what kornacki is saying, but the opposite has happened.

he has a chance to act presidential and in the national polls. he seems to be trending and doing very well. >> mark light, of focus on virginia today. mitt romney with two appearances in virginia. we saw beth parker, the vice president biden. how critical is this state and what kind of arguments have they made? >> there are three big states: ohio, florida, and virginia. ohio being number one. i think florida is a republican state with 29 electoral votes and that is why they spent with ohio as 18 and that is why they have gone after the 13 electoral votes in virginia. hadn't gone democratic since 1964. linden banees johnson wanted it. sixty% he got in northern virginia. the bellweather counties or prince william and low den. he got 58% in prince william, in 2009, the republican mcdonald did very well in the southwest. the democrats are getting clobbered in cold country and they have to concentrate in getting out the african- american vote, which is very large, the same level of enthusiasm. i heard of all of the state battleground polls, this is a

was leading in most of the national polls for a few days. now either the president is up by one or they're even. i think we see a little bit of movement toward him and he's holding steady in the swing states, particularly ohio. he continues to over-perform in ohio, and nothing has been able to shake voter offs of him. i think if you're-- and i think one of the other indicators is who do people think is going to win? which turns out to be a pretty good predictor of votes whether in-trade or just voteres, they think president obama is going to win. >> that's true, but i have to tell you, i feel like romney is coming up. i feel like very quietly so many things in his campaign have come together. he has sort of come into his own. he's having these big rallies. i keep watching them on tv. they're very strong. >> those are signs, too. >> yhis case has become-- the case he makes is cogent. it's congratulate. his commercials have gotten good, even as we're all tired of commercials. they've gotten very good. there's stuff going on there. >> picking u

it is hard to know exactly who. >> i was going to say, you know he these polls, of course, are measuring the nationale a better indicator of how the popular vote may go. to look at the electoral college which is all that matters now you have to look at the state by state polls and many of those are a dead heat and that is really what matters and that is where you have romney pulling ahead. that is where you have a risk being taken in pennsylvania an expansion of the battleground that probably truthfully should have been made a month ago when the bailey's bicker poll showed that the economic data was se in states beyond the battle ground states that were being discussed by the national punditry that the romney campaign probably should have looked at that and said based on state models this map could be bigger. >> jennifer donahue from gettysburg college and peter from quinnipiac. like for instance the new york daily news. guess what? when have endorsed mitt romney. >> a surprise. if case you are not familiar with the nuce pape. >>> they endorsed president obama four years ago. >> an interesting argume

we have more from cnn's final pre-election national poll.t shows the presidential candidates in a 49% tie among likely voters nationally, but look at this. when we asked them who they think will win, 57% say president obama, only 36% say milt romney, also, both candidates favorable ratings are nearly identical. 52% have a favorable view of the president, while 46% have an unfavorable view of him. mitt romney's unfavorable number is only one point lower than the president. the same goes for his unfavorable number. the president's is 46%. john king is over here at the magic wall to compare the latest poll numbers with what the voters thought four years ago. what are you seeing, john? >> that's a great question. we always see, which candidate do you think handles the economy better, will handle a crisis better. demographics tell us who's likely to win. on election day in 2008, senator obama won by six points among independent voters. in our new poll tonight, wolf, governor romney is ahead by 20 points. if governor romney wins double-digits, it'