democratic senators should be having, those who are up for election, is how do we turn out the obama electorate's the conversation they should be having that they're not having. if you -- i looked at some of the states that nate analyzed, and there's two things that the numbers -- and obviously, i'm the communications strategist. so i look at it differently. the numbers don't tell you if you can have a wave elections. the numbers don't tell you could there be enough of a backlash and anger about what's happening with the voting rights act that you would see the same obama electorate come out in the midterm election, which you don't usually, african-american, latino, young voters, and women. women in texas are angry. women in north carolina are angry. if you can turn out those voters, i actually think that nate -- i shudder to say it. i think nate could be very wrong. but i think that traditionally those are groups that don't turn out. and if democrats were smart they'd be figuring out how to turn them out. >> let's listen -- the white house weighed in on this today, especially the republican th

will the turnout next year be enough to rebuff the predictions once again and bring out the obama electorate in 2008 and 2012? joining me now, democratic pollster, margie and chief washington correspondent john harwood. thank you both for being here. >> thank you for having me. >> congratulations again on the fantastic show. >> thank you. i want to start with you. talk about what you're tracking. one of the things that struck me when i read nato's piece is that there's the reading of the numbers and then there's the reading of the emotions and the intensity of what people are feeling. what are you seeing right now in term of the 2014 electorate in. >> well, there are a few things. there are some challenges. in that offyear. it is not like elections. i think it is important to look at the trends and how 2010 compared to 2006. because 2010 obviously was not a good year for democrats. but the racial make-up, the% that were african-american. the% that were under 30. that was actually up changed the from 2006. the real difference was in how independents behaved and the slight difference in the pa

eight months since the us presidential election and while there's no argument barack obama won both the popular and electoral vote the actual voting process was a challenge for many registered voters voters in several states including long lines in florida and confusing voter id requirements in pennsylvania there may never be a solution to this complicated voting system in this country but one or one a bass guitarist has a new idea to improve elections or his political commentator sam sachs has that story. the supreme court crippled the voting rights act last month removing key protections that prevent discrimination against minority voters but really the problems with our elections go far beyond the racial discrimination that underpin the need for the voting rights act and election reformers are trying to highlight this fact pushing for broader election reform to fundamentally change how we elect a representative government chris nervous elegant the chairman of the board at fair vote dot org insiders partisan hacks the use of this decade of demographic cartography technology and they basically carve out the

once the electorate has moved with obama or the democratic party has moved with the obama to generation x maybe they might go back for hillary, but what they go back for joe? don't know. if hillary clinton does not run , either refuse to believe we are ever going to see an open contest for democratic contest nomination with an all democrats feel. d.c. kristin delivery and? -- do you see kristin warren?nd, elizabeth might you see? i think there will be a compelling argument for someone not in washington, a governor. martin o'malley, andrew cuomo. fromian schweitzer montana. someone who says i have never worked in washington, i am not part of the cesspool in washington. you see that out there. a lot of permutations of where on thego, but all built questions that have to be answered up front. the republican party is a question of how many times can you cut up the center right in the sense of -- i do not know how one what exactly measure this, but ted cruz, rand paul, scott walker, marco rubio. chris christie? i think he would be a formidable general election candidates. i am not sure how h

. >>> miembros que se reunieron con obama dicen que los republicanos no pueden dar la espalda. >>> se cierra un futuro electoral recordaron al congreso que se juega la vida de millones de inmigrantes a un costo. en el capitolio, lourdes melouza, univisiÓn. >>> en california muchos campesinos tienen que laborar en condiciones duras en el campo, en los Últimos dÍas dos trabajadores agrÍcolas perdieron la vida a causa del intenso calor, donde las temperaturas reinantes superan los 100 grados. luis mejid conversÓ con los familiares de una de las vÍctimas. >>> no solo el trabajo es duro y mal pagado, el calor del verano es mÁs peligroso, la semana dos campesinos murieron de insolaciÓn, juan ochoa tenÍa 37 aÑos, su hermano lo encontrÓ agonizante. >>> mire que estaba en el suelo, y no respondÍa a la respiraciÓn que le daba, y me asuste, cuando llegaron los paramÉdicos me dijeron que no habÍa nada que hacer. >>> el mÉdico forense no estÁ conencido que haya muerto por el calor, y el departamento de seguridad laboral dijo: la ordenfue emitida porque no seguÍa las reglas para trabajos con mucho calor y no tenÍa procedimie

the electorate they'd like to have. one i talked to said barack obama is basically stunt casting.hey're not going to have another charismatic biracial candidate until somebody we've never heard of takes the nomination. when they make fun of hillary clinton of being a golden girl that's part of the message you'll have another white candidate going and if those numbers tick at all, then ohio is harder for you to win because i think ohio you get obama winning 40% of the white vote. something that the democrats didn't think they could win with. he wins by bringing out black voters, hauck income, vass, they think they changed the map that way. they're pretty hard-nosed about how they can hold a house too and they're right. if every district that had less than -- more than 25% hispanic votes that republicans hold now if they lost although they'd have the house. now, they gerrymandered in a way so they have mostly white strongholds, low minority populations where they can make it and the places where they do have a high minority population mike maria was saying were participation in the

once the electorate has moved with obama or the democratic party has moved with the obama to generation x maybe they might go back for hillary, but what they go back for joe? don't know. if hillary clinton does not run, i refuse to believe we are ever going to see an open contest for democratic contest nomination with an all male field. do you see kristin gillebrand, elizabeth warren? who else might you see? i think there will be a compelling argument for someone not in washington, a governor. martin o'malley, andrew cuomo. or brian schweitzer from montana. someone who says i have never worked in washington, i am not part of the cesspool in washington. you see that out there. a lot of permutations of where it may go, but all built on the questions that have to be answered up front. the republican party is a question of how many times can you cut up the center right in the sense of -- i do not know how one what exactly measure this, but ted cruz, rand paul, rick perry, scott walker, marco rubio. chris christie? i think he would be a formidable general election candidates. i am not sure h

is it a paradigm shift in terms of when you look at the obama team's analysis of the lech court and how they perceive where america's electorate is, was that a different assessment than made by the romney team and was the obama team much more accurate than the romney team? >> well, the average of public polls was basically accurate, too, right? they that had obama winning almost all of the swing states except north carolina and that's where the polls led our forecast. you give credit to the pollsters. i think the obama team is good about turning out voters at the margin, they have smart folks working for them really the pollsters deserve more credit. and i mean the people at abc news or the "wall street journal" or the "new york times" who are conducting these polls. i just put them together in an intelligent way but we have good raw data and when you have good raw data your job as an analyst is easier. >> rose: what are you going to do for the oscars? >> there's no commitment yet. we've tried to issue oscar forecasts in the past and the golden globes, the screen actors guild awards that serve as polls in the sense that some o

. >> they believe that they are answerable to a different electorate than the one that sent president obamack to power. they don't believe that they are doing out of spite. they believe they are that they are representing their voters and to most of these republicans they probably are. >> brown: but president obama today said he is ready for the political fights and compromises that lie ahead. >> in this effort, i will look to work with republicans as well as democrats wherever i can. i believe there are members of both parties who understand what's at stake, and i will welcome ideas from anybody, from across the political spectrum. but i will not allow gridlock, inaction, or willful indifference to get in our way. >> brown: still, other major financial deadlines loom large over capitol hill. on the agenda after the august recess: avoiding a government shutdown by october 1 and once again raising the nation's debt ceiling. >> woodruff: you can watch all of president obama's speech online. coming up, we'll pick up on politics and the economy, as we sit down with senate majority leader harry

i think you have an electorate that keeps imposing -- don't know if imposing is the right word but there are these change elections. obamathe tea party comes in and we have this clear disconnect or discontent in the electorate but the only change that happens in d.c. is if people getting richer. look, not getting things done is extremely good for business. the tax loopholes we were talking about, the democrats and republicans could conceivably agree on, that's not going to happen. if it happened tomorrow, there is going to be tens of billions of dollars of unrealized consulting and lobbying fees that are going to be paid, not to mention cable shouting matches, the likes of which you never have here on this show -- >> oh! >> no, no. i'm saying. this is a good zone, alex. >> thank you. wow! this is a good zone. i will take that. >> no, it is a good zone. >> we'll have to run footage of little panda bears. just a little optimism here about our world. >> i don't want this to be a cudgel. i just want to be a third member of this panel to use the word cudgel. a midday -- >> you succeed at many things. congratulations on the bo

you just can't go to the electorate and say, "we blocked everything that president obama was trying to do." i think you've got to show them some positive results and some positive vision for the future. i'll say one other thing to you. if we don't enact immigration reform, let's say we enact it, comprehensive immigration reform. i don't think it gains a single hispanic voter. but what it does, it puts us on a playing field where we can compete for the hispanic voter. if we don't do that, frankly i don't see... i see further polarization of the hispanic voter. and the demographics are clear that are the republican party cannot win a national election. that's just a fact. >> ifill: senator mccain, thank you so much for talking with us. >> thanks for coming over today. nice to have you here in my humble office. >> ifill: online, you can find our full interview with senator rgcluding his reflection on the passing of retired colonel george "bud" day, mccain's cellmate when both were seriously injured prisoners of war in vietnam. day died yesterday at age 88. >> woodruff: pope francis drew n

look, we were 53% of the electorate, this is women, right? obama won by 11 points and they won single women, i think it was 36% that obama won. but this is from the growth and opportunity to report that was brought up. >> the autopsy -- >> right. this is their quote regarding women. republicans need to make a better effort at listening to female voters, directing their policy proposals what they learn from women and indicating they understand. clearly, they did not read that part of the report. >> gunmakers firing back at progun control politicians. that's after this. >>> two weeks ago on the show we discussed rick perry's effort to convince gun manufacturers to pack up and move to texas. so far no connecticut gunmakers have taken governor perry up on his offer, although one connecticut company did strike a deal with south carolina to move there. and now barrettausa is looking to expand its operations outside of maryland. being wooed by leaders from several states and flatly ruled out two of them this week. they would not expand in west virginia, b

is president obama, they're going to do well in their republican primaries and then they're going to win the general election. part of it, though, is that they genuinely misread the electoratey saw the tea party and then saw polls that said a majority of people were unhappy with obama care. and so they went forward with it. what they didn't realize is that a significant portion of those people who said they were unhappy with it were people on the progressive side who wanted more. people who wanted single payer. so those are not the kinds of people who are going to ally with the tea party to repeal it. they implicitly understand what obama was saying that you have to be for something. just look at their motto. repeal and replace. they knew they couldn't just be for repeal. but they have never come up with a replacement. >> what was interesting, bob, is the president called them out on what's your plan. we know you're against everything that i'm for, but what is your plan? and i think that in many places i agree with ryan that some people are safe beyond the reach because of how the lines we are gerrymand gerrymandered. but i think that will be a challenge if the president st

obama may have struggled with blue-collar whites but african-americans, spanish and asian made up a huge amount of the electoratesy eight last year. black flight from detroit made it twice as diverse as it was a decade ago when stan greenberg returned for more focus groups, he found whites are less driven by race than they were a generation earlier. while the decline of detroit offers a sad symbol of the failure to integrate african-americans into the new deal coalition, you don't have to look past the city limits to see a more durable coalition is possible. we'll take a look at what it could mean for america and detroit after this. [ female announcer ] there is a world of clean... inside the only 3 chamber laundry detergent. ♪ now, here you go, let it go ♪ ooh ♪ 'cause it's a bright light stain fighting, cleaning, and brightening... in tide pods. pop in. stand out. >>> back on the table are ana marie cox of the guardian, jamelle bouie and i want to bring in jocelyn benson and democratic nominee from michigan secretary of state in 2010. wayne state warriors, is that right? >> absolutely. >> my college nicknames a

once the electorate has moved with obama or the democratic party has moved to generation x, maybe they might get back for hillary, but would they go back? don't know. and if hillary clinton doesn't run, i refuse to believe that we are ever going to see an open contest for a democratic presidential nomination with an all male field. so if hillary doesn't run d.c. christian gillibrand, amy coe the chart, elizabeth ward. who else might you see? and then i think there will be a compelling argument in both parties for someone who is not in washington, governor. and so you might say, martin o'malley and andrew cuomo, john hagan the upper. brian schweitzer from montana. you can see someone that says i have never worked in washington. i'm not a part of the cesspool. you see that out there. i think you get allot of permutations of where it may go, but there are all built on big questions that have to be answered the front. and then on the republican party , it's a question of how many times you can cut out the center right to write. in the sense of -- and i don't know how one would exactly meas

obama. but congressional democrats won more votes than those districts. those districts are very finely drawn to advantage the republican party. they have a virtual electoral lock on the house right now. there are not enough swing seats for democrats to compete because of the they were written. they're not representative of the entire country and the way the election turned out last november. but they're a very different republican party than what we see countrywide. it's not going to be a surprise that each party is going to use whatever tool they have available. i think long-term it is going to become more difficult for republicans particularly in the south to ignore changing demographics. i think it is also hard to argue that you go to the ballot box and you're forced to show an i.d. when you're not forced to run a check for buying an assault weapon at a gun show. at the same time there are drivers, i mean, at motor vehicle departments they offer nondriver's i.d.s. they are required for a lot of. >> you have to get on the subway, go to the department of transportation. >> if you live in texas you have to drive for miles. >> it's harder to get on the vot

president obama won almost every swing state in the country last time. he had an overwhelming margin. particularly in the electoral college. he should get the people in place whom he wants to -- unless there's some problem with them. they don't ever argue these aren't qualified people. >> they're not arguing on the merits. >> they're just arguing really they don't like their philosophy or don't like the agency or don't like some of the political decisions these people had made. all of them are very fine public servants. rich cordray. perez. the secretary, i hope secretary of labor. the nlrb appointments who are particularly important because as larry cohen said, if we don't act by july 27th, a couple of weeks away on the nlrb, it means fundamentally there is no enforceable labor law as congresswoman sanchez said on labor day. and we have a strong vibrant middle class in this country because of collective bargaining rights, because workers have some power in the workplace. that agency will be emasculated and that power will be undercut. in the middle class, will continue its decline. >> senator jeff merkley who wil

c can elect someone like president barack obama who doesn't look like anyone in our history before he was elected on that powerful, diverse, changing electorate. they're about to grasp power, and i think this is sort of an important time to understand what your power means. trayvon's mother talked about it's time for us to march. hopefully in a couple months we'll be talking about time to organize. in a couple months after that, it's time for us to vote. truth of the matter is we don't change stand your ground laws at the state level unless we have put pressure on state elected officials. it's quite frankly as simple as taking, and i wrote about this, it's as simple as taking a page out of the tea party's book. they march but they also organize, and they brought pressure to bear. and for better or worse, as congressman conyers will probably tell you, they have a big voice on what's going on politically in this country right now. >> congressman, before i let both of you gentlemen go, i have to ask you about your city of detroit. the emergency manager and the governor filing for bankruptcy, that is now being challenged in court. you apparently

in many politics and the change with every electoral cycle now, especially with social media, those have been developed by the people working for barack obamagoing to have to dip into the obama bench for people to help her if she's going to run the next time out. arthel: so it's really not necessarily for a political stamp, it's more for, as you said, those who have the skill set to do it. and you mentioned social media because social media is the sort of the grassroots of the day. >> yeah. well, social media was what -- barack obama perfected it, and he used it to defeat her, then he defeated john mccain and mitt romney. so she has got to find people who are adept at using those kinds of social media instruments to run. but i should say that barack obama, who was supported by the progressives on the left, have always distrusted the clintons. there's a bit of a tension there between them. hillary clinton has, i don't think this candidacy is quite the slam dunk people think it is. she has some fence mending to do on the democratic left among people who have never believed the clintons are quite in their camp. so to both get obama's support a

obama campaign did a pretty good job of damaging him. i would still get to the point when you are talking about the latino vote you are talking about something 10% or less of the electorateen you are talking about the white vote something on 70% of the vote. white vote declined and the. >> bill: en masse support a public repudiation of the immigration bill. it's not. it's going to be divided down among party lines and a whole lunch -- bunch of things. independents support immigration reform. so it's hard to quantify the white vote. what i'm saying is this: this country is founded on fairness. that's how we're founded on. that's what i'm saying in the talking points memo this ties in with that we're not a nation of loopholes. that's what we have become. we have got to get away from that. all right? it's not all the illegal alien's fault. okay, that the government looked the other way for 30 years and big said come on in and they let them come in. let's be fair about. this and i think the house can make it a stronger better bill, but i think it has to be done. last bill. >> personally, i would vote for the senate bill. personally. i think the country needs immigration refo

obama won the hispanic vote by 20% in 2012. romney got 23%. it was really low. republicans realize there are electoral repercussions to this.y're just not immediate enough and not maybe clear enough. at this point. but we'll see. that might be the argument that they need. >> bill: lindsey graham said the same thing. wasn't just democrats telling republicans if they want to win the white house, they'll have to do something about it. >> there was an rnc report after the election that outlined that. it is well-known in the party that they can't keep going down this path with hispanics. it is just -- debatable as to whether they've all accepted that immigration reform is the way to kind of win that argument. >> bill: and whether they -- and also the issue -- seems to be that house republicans really don't care so much about winning back the white house as holding on to the house. >> right. >> bill: so if we talk about the possible political repercussion of not doing anything about student loans not doing anything about immigration reform, there's one other constituency and that the lgbt community which got a big boost last week