much more persuasively, they looked at microeconomic data, households that have suffered larger wealth loss. or experienced other bad effects of the economic conditions. those households did not seem to have any reaction in their medicare spending. that leaves open the question of if it is not the recession, what is it? of course, this is an uncertain business. my colleagues went through and tried to quantify a number of other effects. changes in the age and health status of medicare beneficiaries. changes in the payment rates that medicare makes. change in prescription drugs. changes in whether people are enrolled in part a and part b. the whole set of quantify factors did not explain much of the slowdown. there is another part of the paper that goes through a number of possible factors that are difficult to quantify. they try to pull together the scraps of evidence to see what stories might've been more or less important. it does not lead to a clean, sharp "here is the effect." and now we know how persistent it will be. we are trying to make projections in the middle of the distribut

they look at microeconomic data, household that suffer larger wealth losses experienced other bad effectconomic conditions and the household didn't steam have any different reaction in their medicare spending. that leaves open the very important question if it's not the financial crisis recession what is? of course it's uncertain business. my colleagues went through and try quantify a number of effect changes in the age and health status of medicare beneficiary. and the change in the payment rate medicare makes and changes in the medicare prescription drugs. when people are enrolled in part a or d or just a. a set of factors they were to be quantify. it didn't explain much the slow down. a number of factors difficult to quantify and they try to pull together the scrap of evidence and see what stories might have been more or less important. now we know how persistent will be. when we do our projections, try to make projection in the middle of the disruption. and slower growth in premium in the private insurance market we had. we try to construct projections for the future that balance ris

much more persuasively they look at microeconomic data, households that have suffered wealth loss.s brings other bad effects in those households do not have any reaction to that household spending. oft leaves open the question if it is not the recession, what is it? this is and uncertain business. we try to quantify a number of other effects. changes in the payment rates that medicare makes. changes in weather people are enrolled in part a and part b. a whole set of factors they were able to quantify. there is another part of the paper that goes to a number of possible factors that are typical to quantify. they try to pull together the scraps of evidence to see what stories might've been more or less important. it does not lead to a clean, effect."re is the we are trying to make projections and we want there to be equal chances that we are too high and too low. we have seen slow growth in medicare and medicaid over the past few years. construct projections for the future that balance risks. we might take the recent experience very seriously, given a lot of weight. just the rest of

microeconomic scale. to be at the front tried to construct what we call an augmented fiscal balance. the recorded official general government data together with the off budget fiscal transaction. looking at it together shows us that the actual debt of the public sector augmented public sector is much higher than the official 22% official. but augmented debt including the off budget spending comes to somewhere around 50% of gdp. we have 45 because we don't include something. if you look on the right side the market estimate and the government estimate which has been around for the last two or three years of the side of the government debt. it's somewhere between 50 and 60% including what you saw on the liability side. and of course, the rate of that is official debt is much higher means also that the public deficit, if you include the augmented part is higher than measured on the order of one, two, or 3%. around 8 to 10% of gdp. real estate -- on the left-hand side you see relgt accounts for a very significant share of gdp already. it's 12.5% of output and about 14% and remain now a key engine of growth; however, one has to reali