industrial production is zero right now absolutely i mean already talked about industrial production cap ex over the last year is down four percent which is significant so the government throwing on austerity on top of that it's no surprise that the economy does it take the pain now for. growth later i mean is this the strategy i think i think the external factors of being brutal nurses. bernie indicated you're in europe and the recession for many many quarters are just just coming starting to come out fifty percent of russia's exports are related to europe so i mean that external factor has been significant i think russia decided that it would while the rest of the world was taking pain it may as well join in ok but yeah they have the the opportunity to do so well the comfort space i mean if you it seems perverse to put into place now when the growth is so low but the slowdown hasn't actually affected the people in so much is people are cutting rates in the west because they've got twenty thirty in youth fifty percent unemployment in russia we've got twenty year lows there's full employmen

in russia it's not really in a keynesian situation we need there's a significant cap ex needed this. significant investment but this really is structural reform the if that if that was adopted now that would really significantly improve if you do go down the path of structural reform during times of austerity i mean you know people would make the argument you know it's not a good idea to change the wheels of your tire and the muffler and every else everything else in your part while you're going seventy miles an hour i mean they did it in one thousand eight. hundred signatures social and economic problems when it zaps exactly exactly right to a very great degree any problems that exist with a quarterly but at the same time if you are going to see it is much better to sort of go to the doctor and get everything done and that's right so i guess there's no there's no real good time or a bad time you just have to do it well put it this way typically countries if they don't need to do the reform they won't and for most of the last ten years russia didn't need to because they had buckets o

industrial production is zero right now absolutely i mean already talked about industrial production cap ex over the last year is down four percent which is significant so the government throwing on austerity on top of that it's no surprise that the economy does it take the pain now for. growth later i mean is this the strategy i think i think the external factors of being brutal on this has been indicating europe in europe and the recession for many many quarters are just just coming starting to come out fifty percent of russia's exports are related to europe so i mean that external factor has been significant i think russia decided that it would while the rest of the world was taking pain it may as well join in ok but yeah they have the the opportunity to do so well the company space i mean if you it seems perverse to put into place now when the growth is so low but the slowdown hasn't actually affected the people in so much is people are cutting rates in the west because they've got twenty thirty in youth fifty percent unemployment in russia we've got twenty year lows there's full employ

and alongside weak volumes, rising cap ex. when we have from exxon is growing and falling returns.en a tough place to be. it may be turning in 2014. i'm worried about q3 earning. i think there may be an inflexion point for exxon, particularly as cap ex is expected to fall next year. >> we have to go. have you conocophillips, a hold on that as well. thank you for joining us. >>> up next, see what happens if you are super rich and you're running late for a flight. get ready for some airline envy. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. with my united mileageplus explorer card. i've saved $75 in checked bag fees. [ delavane ] priority boarding is really important to us. you can just get on the plane and relax. [ julian ] having a card that doesn't charge you foreign transaction fees saves me a ton of money. [ delavane ] we can go to any country and spend money the way we would i

industrial production is zero right now absolutely i mean already talked about industrial production cap ex over the last year is down four percent which is significant so the government throwing on austerity on top of that it's no surprise. that the economy at least does it take the pain now for. growth later i mean is this the strategy i think i think the external factors of being brutal on this as been indicated your in your opinion you know recession for many many quarters are just just coming starting to come out fifty percent of russia's exports are related to europe so i mean that external factor has been significant i think.

so much of the cap ex is now happening in america rather than in china.o all of those are plus points for next year. but even so, we don't expect above tren -- we probably will get above trend growth in the first quarter because there's a little bit of rebound in there. the question is how much is rebound and how much is the fact as i've just mentioned? obviously, we're saying that a lot of it is for real and will multiply through the year. on that basis, you get fairly heavy duty tapering, probably in the spring and summer. but i doubt they will be able to achieve the july objective having reviewed qe to nothing. this doesn't, of course, constitute a tightening of government -- of monetary policy. in the sense of interest rates. >> the question is whether the market, of course, makes it a tightening monetary policy vibe because it's so binary, which is what we saw over the summer, isn't it? >> yeah. well, i think people got -- people -- in a way, people have been in position for a bull market until the spring in the bonds and then they adjust their posit

i think you will get a cap-ex cycle boosting gdp to 3.4%. lori: we have another budget battle looming in january followed by another debt ceiling. you are chuckling, you know where we are going with this question. should you close up the books and wait until next year. >> i don't think so. i made that mistake. i'm in baron's of sent 26th, 1987 predicting a waterfall decline. i basically shut the books and tried to right out rest of the year even after the crash and it was a huge, huge mistakes. the markets went trait back up. underinvested portfolio managers not just here but around the world will be forced to chase stocks for performance reasons, for bonus reasons and ultimately for job reasons and try to keep up with the joins. that would be the dow joneses. lori: that is very funny. my prior guest said emerging markets are coming back with the forefront with his interest in china. china heating up once again. what do you think about global opportunities? >> i've been pretty adamant china will not fall off a cliff. they're following the sa

the cap ex forecast 2014, but there's even more cash coming back to shareholders. steve is at the bp headquarter. hi, steve. >> yeah. hi, ross. thanks very much indeed for that. i'm here speaking to bob dudley, ceo of bp. fantastic to see you again. i'm going to take us back in time. 24 months. two years ago, you and i were sitting in this very office and you said these set of numbers are a watershed moment from bp. the last few years have been a lit of litigation. how far have you achieved those goals that you set out for in 2011 to where we are now in 2013? >> well, it seems like a long time ago. but at that time, we laid out a ten-point plan, five things to expect, five things to measure. we have completed a $38 billion divestment program. we've upped our expiration game. we've got lots of projects that have come on stream. they've come a long way and we have a much less rocky road with a great investment since the last time. i'm pleased to say, you were telling earlier, one of the things i mentioned this morning is bp is still trading at a discount, a forward p

>> well, generally it's because there's a cap ex expenditure that goes with buying networking gear, so are ebbs and flows in capex expenditures as companies budget for those things, but as a general matter, cyber securities are a growing concern and the top three priority in the boardroom and i would expect them to increase over time. >> thank you so much for coming on to "mad money." >> thanks for having me. >> that's mark mclachlan. the greatest secular trend in the world, bad guys are breaking into your system. palo alto has a solution. stay with cramer. >> coming up, tea time? >> this is not your mother's lipton tea. >> while the world's largest coffee chain stock flirts with all-time highs, it's adding another flavor to its business. will starbucks' big plans for tea help keep it caffeinated? don't miss cramer's one-on-one with ceo howard schultz from its brand new flagship store. >>> one of my favorite growth companies is doing something brilliant. tomorrow starbucks opens its very first teavana tea bar on the upper east side of manhattan. it was a place where you could buy tea b

cap-ex budgets have not been spent. we're going into the winter months if we have cold winters up in canada they can get out there and drill. there is some really good movement of equipment around the country into the permian basin and the bakkan basin. we think that is set up for really good next couple years in their opportunities. cheryl: chris, jason, gentlemen, thanks to both of you. great to have you especially on a day with this massive rally. scott shellady we'll check in with you shortly with the s&p futures close which will look pretty good here. david: that is understatement. will america rise as world's energy top producer still not affecting prices as much as opec does. doesn't that make you mad? when will that change? we asked the two best energy analysts on the planet period! cheryl: i agree with you on those two guys. we're counting down to a high-stakes meeting between president obama anddtop house republicans in less than 30 minutes. we'll be monitoring every wire we have to find out what is going on a

i was talking to a fast-growing market investor, all this cap ex will be in the united states, all in the energy sector in the next couple of years. so, i would be bullish in the longer term. this, i hope s a short-term blip. you're right in a sense i think the electorate and, indeed, business is really fed up with government arguing amongst themselves. and really given that we've been in a sort of recessionary mode since lehman, we just celebrated, if that's the right word, five years after lehman, the terrible weekend in september of 2008. really we want to get away from that and out of it and see stronger economic growth. so, things like this really don't help imagewise and psychologically. i think long-term prospects for america are good. they're not mediocre or poor. they're good. this doesn't help certainly in the short term. >> absolutely. martin sorrel in istanbul, turkey, a view from europe about what they may be thinking about the united states' image right now. not particularly good. thanks, martin. >> thank you. >> a lot of countries are around in the world past couple of

cap ex spending is weak.o the makings of a bubble are just not there in terms of this excitement. >> do you disagree? >> i disagree with that, mandy. if you look at the bubbles of the late 1990s with the internet stocks, they didn't see the bubble until the bubble burst. nobody said -- there were companies with no earnings. nasdaq substantially higher value in 1999 than it is even today 14 years later. take the case of what happened to housing in 2005/2006. house prices can only go one way, and that's upward. we all believed it. so it seems to me that equities have been going up for five years. the economy has not recovered. quantitative easing continues on an ongoing basis. the federal reserve essentially says that the economic growth outlook is somewhat better. but they have not reduced qe. it's continuing. all of those to me suggest a bubble both in the bond market and in the equity market. the question is when is the bubble going to burst? >> and also how big the bursting of the bubble would be. but i'm g

and it's hardly surprising that people are cutting back cap ex and being cautious this quartzer.ird quarter. it's the first up quarter. they've got to throw everything into the sink. on a three to one negative ratio, i suspect what you're going to get is companies will beat their preannounced numbers and will -- as long as we get over this issue with washington, their earnings season will actually, once you look at the opt iblgly, i think will look good even though the numbers are quite bad. >> always good to see you, patrick. thanks for joining us, patrick spencer from buried. >>> still to come, it's the biggest ipo to sit this year, but with more on that and the latest out of washington, as well. as we do so, futures are pointing higher right now. the s&p 7 points above fair value, the dow at 65 plus fair value. >>> this is "worldwide exchange." on the brink with hours to go, u.s. senate leaders are now trying to draft an acceptable deal to avoid a potential default. investors in europe are cautious as that deadline looms. one year u.s. credit default hitting the highs of 2011.

now corporate earnings are improving and we are likely to see increasing hikes for cap ex. but next year is of more concern because of the cost of these tax rate hikes. >> thank you so much, kenji abe at city group globe markets, japan. >> and speaking of japan, we're just seeing on the wires that the japanese government is stating they're compiling an economic package worth backside 5 trillion yen. there's speculation about how big that package can be p. according to dow jones, the japanese government is considering withdrawing corporate reconstruction tax one year early, as well. again, the economic package is to offset the tax hike to a total of 5 trillion yen. we're just getting those details now. >> kind of a cushion. even though the economy is strong enough to go ahead, you still have to cushion it a little bit. >> definitely. you don't want to do everything at once. anyway, we are 1 1/2 hours into trade here in europe and these are the headlines this morning. the u.s. government going into shutdown mode for the first time in 17 years after congress fails to break a s

>> it would take what we started this week, construction on two additional restaurants, a cap ex in excesshe bronx and one out in brooklyn. and i'll need about 150 people to run each one of these. so it'll take nothing other than we just keep on putting our heads down and keep doing like you're doing. >> how does health care factor into the decisions you're making right now in terms of expansion? >> that's a really good question, and it's posed to us all the time with thousands of employees. firstly, all of the managers and managerial people, we've had health care all the time. we never didn't. and it's really about the hourlies, and i can tell you that -- i don't think anybody really understands it. it's hard enough for people at the managerial level -- >> you have workers -- do you have a franchise model? are the workers your employees or are they -- >> oh, no, no, all we do with applebee's is a franchiser, come under the marketing budget. >> so it's up to you as to whether or not to provide health care? >> 100%. >> and do you provide them health care, the hourly employees? >> we've alwa

small caps large caps transports, all hitting record highs again today, we're playing hold them and fold them. amazon fed exisney and chipotle. let's start with amazon. guy. >> i won the street fight, but i lost the ultimate jury which is the marketplace, which is the stock market. but i mean the quarter was fine but at a certain point we said it during the street fight, it will catch up. they have to start turning a profit. obviously, they didn't do it this quarter. the street gave them a lot of slack. but i don't think you can chase amazon at these levels so i'm in the fold 'em camp. >> steve grasso. >> amazon you have to hold. i would be a holder of it. 24% is what the revenue jumped f. you look at retailers warmed. but ecommerce expects to skyrocket. >> i'm a folder. as a folder the other day as well. it's not so much i dislike the company, just it's up so much. to me amazon is like the broad market in general. as long as everybody believes that eventually revenue, will beget earnings on the bottom line, then great, then amazon could continue to go. i'm just not going to be the guy who buys a stock up t

you know again the major provisions people support you know you get exe coverage if you have a preexisting condition no lifetime caps your adult children can stay on your policies you have preventive care men are going to pay the same as women no longer discrimination against women in rate setting i think all the general principles are there will we improve it absolutely but right now it's a strong law that's going to give access to millions of millions of people in wisconsin one thousand percent of people who apply for health insurance get denied now they're going to have health coverage when you look at the rates it's been proven to lower rates including in my home state of wisconsin this is positive that's why i don't understand the republican obsession with this my only guess is they're afraid if it happens and it is as successful as we're assuming it's going to be based on all the evidence that they're going to look like they're wrong and they just don't want that to happen well and i think you're right and we saw this with medicare we saw it with social security it's just that that's not in the memory of most