i want to turn to mike mckee, we are talking about benchmark revisions.saw a chart that goes back through the year, talk to us about what this is. this is a different kind of nonfarm payrolls number in terms of importance. >> 2 revisions, went to the establishment survey, which is companies. they look at tax records. they found that there were roughly 274,000 fewer jobs for the past year that ended last march then we have bought. that gets factored in. the logic, mess of they used to count household people as employed by opposed to companies. those people were moved into the labor force as company workers, that adds a lot. you get a higher level of employment over the past year, but not because more people were employed. just accounting. other changes to the population estimate. last year, this was a huge deal. the population estimate was raised significantly. this year, not all that much. not going to affect the unemployment rate, the participation rate. >> what do you think richard? you thought 140,000. >> i was surprised at the construction number. >>

economist at ubs and of course mike mckee, our own chief economist. we take you now to the other side of the world. in the ukraine, there is a deal to end the week of deadly violence in the apple city of kiev. the president and opposition leaders have agreed to hold early elections will stop at a few minutes ago, the ukraine parliament voted unanimously to amend the prosecution back to the 2004 standards. bloomberg correspondent is our man on the ground there. tell us first what this means, what do these concessions mean as far as for example amending the cause of tuition? -- amending the constitution? and sound like we are having technical issues there with ilya on the phone, but let me walk you through what is going on. we have eu leaders, this is the first time that high level eu leaders have really come into these negotiations. that is important because of course we reported there is a truce a couple of days ago, and six or seven hours later, another 50 people were dead. you need eu help in there, and you need russians. >> the question becomes wha

i want to turn to mike mckee, who has been going through those details.ritics have come out and said that we cannot afford to not have a big army. >> we can. we have in the past. take a look at where we were before the iraq and afghanistan wars. if you look at the buildup up of the active-duty army over the last 10-15 years come you can see in the 1990's, the peace dividend allowed us to cut our forces tremendously. the huge buildup of the wars that followed since the peak two years ago. we have been coming down and we are getting back to a more rational level to the threat level we face today. take a look now at what secretary hagel is suggesting. the reductions will go from 522,000 to 490,000 by 2015. by 2019, 450,000. not huge impact on the economy overall. military personnel are not counted in the establishment or the household surveys. they don't affect the data that we see on a regular basis. they will not affect the number of people who are having or not having jobs. to the extent that some of them leave the service and don't find other jobs, they

guest host, sam zell, founder and chairman of equity group investments and also economics editor mike mckeeu say the good news that while the glass may not be half-full it is also not half empty, meaning that a losing january does not mean we will lose the whole year. >> exactly. some interesting statistics when you look at what has happened over the years, you go back to 1926 as beyond good research did and is -- it is often true and yearnuary predicts an up for the market before a down january almost no correlation. about 34% chance he will have a down year in the market overall. so while you could say if we had a good january that things are going to turn out well, we don't know at all what is going to happen in this year because we had a down january. >> for the years we have the so-called january effect, doesn't the month have a good track record of predicting the outcome? >> sure, so does every other month. what animists have found if you look at any given a month -- because the stock market has a propensity to go well -- up, it is likely you will have markets higher 11 months later.

. >> mike mckee. on a programming note, janet yellen will be back on capitol hill tomorrow. and look at gears the latest in ukraine. demonstrators are back in independence square. their elohimasked ukrainians tollow gather again. they want a government in place by tomorrow. activist fought with other protesters. they were waving ukrainian and -- five.iday they're calling for local elections. the bbc is reporting that ousted ukrainian president viktor which which -- victory" has been placed on an international wanted list. they want to send into the international criminal court in the hate. we have more on ukraine's efforts to rebuild its government. coming up, retailers post mixed results on the earnings front. shares are heading higher. we will take a look at what is driving that rally. ♪ >> the u.s. supreme court ruled today that class action lawsuit from investors who lost billions in a massive ponzi scheme can go forward. the decision is a lost for individuals and law firm companies who allegedly aided the fraud. sanford was sentenced to 120 -- in prison.ent byy supposed

economics editor mike mckee explains the fine print. >> the headline number for the establishment survey, but the number of people who got jobs in the household survey was high, and the reason the unemployment rate went down is because more people got jobs. not because more people dropped out of the labor force. >> that is the first time we've seen that reversed? >> no, it happens quite frequently, but it is the first time in a couple of months that we as in that situation. we have been talking about the dismal reason for unemployment. in this case, it was a good reason. >> is it good enough or bad enough to get the fed to change its taper strategy? pimco's mark kiesel spoke to betty liu. >> the numbers are not so strong that they would be afraid people are moving too fast, but they were strong enough that the fed will be on hold for a while in terms of raising rates. it should be relatively good for the bond market. >> you feel that this allows the fed to stay essentially on autopilot whether monetary policy? >> yeah, basically we think that the fed is going to deemphasize the unemploym

. >> economics editor mike mckee was saying the fed itself is backing away from the unemployment number of economic stability. >> for this very reason. >> time to get to the roundup where we talk about the big stories we are tracking ahead of tomorrow's open. >> found guilty of insider trading, guilty on all three counts. in november, he was charged in what is believed to be the most lucrative insider trading scheme in history. in we're used to saying allegedly but $275 million is what he met for sac as a result of his trades in two different drug companies based on information on the clinical trials for alzheimer's drugs. to 20 years inp prison. that's the maximum sentence related to these charges. >> if he cooperates in any capacity -- >> he's talked about not doing it until now. >> it's amazing. i know one of our reporters from bloomberg was out the trial and explained typically in these trials you don't go on the stand. he did not because cross- examination is very difficult. >> he also lied about law school. >> there were concerns about the legitimacy of his resume. told one of the

we have our panel, chief economist at artie q economics, economics editor mike mckee and senior market julie hyman. john, i am going to start with you. a lot of people say hey, this is just weather. the last couple of months we have had lousy weather and you really need to look forward to the future. we have had lousy weather. it was not a beautiful day yesterday. >> it is still pretty messy out there. >> and we are not going to get a clean reading in february either. one of the most ronson numbers -- constantons numbers after revisions has been that the economy created close to 200,000 jobs a month. it was picking up steam at the end of last year. there was no reason to expect the break and hiring was going to be sustained and nothing supported it. payrolls were out on their own in this one. .ven the household number >> you thing next month is going to be bad as well? >> if it stays bad next month, the impact that has on depressing the growth sort of disappears. i would not be surprised if we saw strong -- >> let me ask you one question. he brings up something pretty important, the im

thank you, julie hyman and mike mckee. moving and shaking this hour, j.ickey drexler, whose company may go public this year. according to people familiar with the matter, that clothing chain is talking to banks about an ipo. pbg and leonard green and partners bought j. crew for $2.6 billion. since then, drexler has increased the number of stores and expanded to london and hong kong. j.crew might be valued at up to $5 million at a public offering. the timing might be right. the retail index is up 35% in just the last year alone. john paulson could be getting set to deepen his investment in retail. the hedge fund is in talks to buy a resort complex with more spending in the pipeline this year. the island struggles under the weight of a debt load. stephanie ruhle has more details on john getting into the resort business. he is good if you remember last year he took a big stake in a bahia resort could he was spending half $1 billion there. he has his checkbook out again, that he. -- checkbook out again, betty. he says he is not moving to puerto rico but he wi

mike mckee and i have seen this -- we get angry e-mails -- >> something that is going to play out over a year. let's stick to our agenda. tom, what is on your agenda? the pageantry in washington. our julianna goldman at the state dinner for president all on. -- president hollande. this is about much, much more than colorado beef and -- >> and ribeye. >> your french is worse than mine. i don't think i would ever say that. -- not troubled nation, but the compex heritage coming out of world war ii, and the challenges as a major trading partner and a major force in europe. france and the next 10 years and the domestic politics that mr. hollande faces? >> especially complicated given that several of the largest banks in the world are in france. you think of germany, the u.s., you think of japan. but actually, france. >> you think of the challenges of the auto industry, steve miller. they are not clearing the market as you and others did in detroit. >> exactly right. they have a very high labor costs in france due to their labor laws and it has made it much more difficult for french producer

the januaryng at numbers and michael mckee is breaking the numbers down. mike, it looks good. time to get a house. you would expect that things would have been lousy in january with the way the numbers have been, but you would be wrong. .68,000 annual rate low compared to the boom times but don't quite good. the interesting thing is the regional breakdown. the only region of the country that saw a decline was the midwest. with the hammered weather, but the northeast was, too. ine sales, 73% higher january. a huge percentage increase. sold in thehomes u.s. these days have been in the west, which have been extremely drive. they get an 11% boost as well. ready good across the board. it kind of throws into the had the issue of how much the weather is affecting the economy. >> in spite of the weather, great numbers. it seems like every company out there reporting has blamed their numbers on bad weather. well, not everyone can. >> it is time for the news feed. j.crew is talking about a possible ipo later this year. this is according to people familiar with the matter. they were take

mike inouye. >> low clouds for 680, 101 northbound slow from that point on the map, typical. north 680 around alan rock and mckeeslow down and off of north 17 and 880 through oakland, a little clouds there as well. back to you. >> we'll have another local news update for you in a half an hour. [ male announcer ] we could say a lot about the most track-tested is ever... ♪ ...about its stiffer suspension... ♪ ...its precise steering... ♪ ...and its more rigid chassis. ♪ but the truth is... we don't have to. ♪ the experts have spoken. now it's your move. [ engine revs ] >>> it's 8:00 on "today." coming up, on the slopes for the team usa. the men and the women in the halfpipe. plus all eyes on the guys. tough competition in the men's skating event. we'll get an inside look from scott hamilton about who might come out on top. and matt and al can't have all the fun in sochi. natalie and i hit the ice for learning cheering speedskating style. "today," thursday, february 13, 2014. >> hello san francisco. >> venice, florida. >> we're having a good time in sochi. >> we're wishing the men good luck tonight. >> hi, mom, go