robert dye, america bank, ethan harris, bank of america merrill lynch, stuart hoffman, pnc, peter hoopersche bank , nathaniel carp, bba compass, greg miller, suntrust. george machon, huntington bank, richard moody, regions financial corporation. christopher probin, state street, and carl tannenbaum, northern trust. after today's forecast we have a question and answer session. if you have a question you please state your name and the name of the publication. without further adieu, let me introduce chris lowe, aba chair and chief financial economist to get things started, chris? good morning, thank you for me being here. i know it when it false on a friday, it can be tricky to get you away from the desk. i appreciate you all are here. if you pick one word to describe the mood in the room yesterday as we sat down to discuss our forecast and form the consensus view, it would be optimism. we are optimistic that we will see solid growth going forward through the rest of this year and into next year. in the first quarter of course gdp growth fell 1%. that was in part the weather but it was more