that's when we get the black swan. very smart people have been calling the turmoil in iraq a black swan event. the term gained fame with a best-seller who pointed out all swans were white, a black swan will be very rare, almost impossible. there's no doubt the trigger for major corrections have come out of left field for the majority of the time. these days, i think of another myth, she rebuffed this romantic advances so he cursed her. you can predict things but nobody is going to believe you. consider all the events that have happened in recent months and yet this rally goes on. we're talking syria, russian invades ukraine, al qaeda and iraq, a cors of cassandras, the stock market right now is not listening. guys i want to talk about this. we hinted at it today. the black swan perhaps it's upon us, but how do you predict the unpredictable, tracy? >> we all misuse black swan, it's supposed to be a once-in-a-lifetime event and to your point, iraq has been happening every day since the sun started coming up. it's not nec

the swan. the black swan. this is in the u.k.own by a black swan, and the guy behind the camera has a laugh so infectious. listen to him. >> i can't stop. i can't believe he's charging him. >> trying to play through because the ball is there, but he can't get close enough because the swans keep backing him away. >> the swans can be very territorial. this does not surprise me at all. >> they are not afraid of this dude and his fancy golf bag, not at all. >> i have a beak and wings, you think this golf bag is going to scare me? >>> this video is a couple months old, but the latest version, the swans are a little meaner. >> oh! >> yep. this is a game of thrones put together for a 30-second commercial. look at that. >> that's good. who did this? dreamworks? >> it's good because there's only two dragons, remember, one is missing. >> exactly. if you watch "the game of thrones" on hbo, you'll get the look and understand the reference here. >> more vicious than pit bulls, i might say. >> if the two girls in this video only knew they were

those are the black swans.wan, by the way, folks, is a term for things you're not expecting that could take down the markets or destabilize them. i want to go back to what you talked about, we know the chickens are the people who sat on the sidelines over the past five years, but what are the white swans? i assume those are the positives out there. >> yeah. the merger and acquisition activity is always going to be an excitement for the marketplace. people like to see these 40% moves like we saw today in technology and in health care. but i think it's going to spill over. i saw in the small cap area right after they passed the sarbanes-oxley law we had almost every week we had a smaller cap name that either went private or merged in order to -- liz: which is great if you own those. i mean, let's look at -- >> right. liz: -- top holdings here. geospace technology, carbo ceramics. you like iser iser in as a -- certificator in as a stock. positive one for the affordable health care act, correct? is. >> the aca, obv

watch many ducks, swans, and siegel's. -- seagulls. it is a great place to stroll and sail away. many couples come here to take a ride around a lake, going under the bridges, passing the chinese pavilion and the waterfall. for a quiet getaway, making for a memorable and magical experience. located on 19th avenue, this growth is the place to where you're hiking boots, bring the family and the dog because it has so much to offer you and your loved ones. it is a truly hidden gem in the city. the park is rich with eucalyptus trees. long paths allow you to meander, perfect for a dog walking in a wooded environment. >> i enjoy the history. the diversity of nature that exists in such an urban city, concrete streets, cars, we have this oasis of the natural environment. it reminds us of what the history was. >> there is a section for dogs and plenty of parking. transit is available on the 28 bus to get you very easily. the part is ada -- park is ada accessible. it is also a natural lake. this is your chance to stroll around the lake and let the kids run free. it also has many birds to wat

there's your big black swan. >> the black swan index or the skew as they call it. for more on that, go to cnbc.com. >>> let's pick up right there. investors don't seem too concerned about the drop in gdp. the dow is up 26 points, the s&p 500 up almost 5 and the nasdaq up about 14 points on the trading session. bob pavloc is here and jerry castellini is with castle arch management. you expected this kind of economic downturn, you called it for us early on. what does it say about our recovery, economic recovery, going forward and, therefore, the markets? >> well, it's going to be delayed. 2013 had a wonderful year for the overall market, up 30%. there wasn't that much in the way of really underlying, strengthening fundamentals. the economic activity has to catch up to the market. that's exactly what we're seeing in 2014. now, as you said, i called the economic slowdown a cyclical slowdown that began in the fourth quarter and was only complicated during january and february. january and february, just really made matters worse. you know, because of that, the data hasn

pretty big white swan sitting in front of us.e that bull wandering down the streets of baltimore. i think that's a good sign. >> what's the white swan? >> goldilocks cubed, there is three things going on that is pretty much for equities. i've been accelerating the economy, but obvious that means rates are rising. >> i mean like a prolonged spike in energy prices? >> we're looking at possibly shorting oil. i liked everybody boone had to say. the history of friction in oil-rich regions, is whoever takes over instantly start pumping out the oil, because they need the dollars. the kurds have currently taken over the oil fields in iraq, so the idea that we're going to lose the production is -- i think it's right to worry about that, and if it goes to $200, i agree that's probably not good, but i don't see oil going there, frankly. >> we've already had, with all due respect, we've this jump in oil prices, right? >> all stocks have done -- >> that's what is kept me restless. i still sleep, but i was restless over an increase of worldwid

we drove down there and just did the performance from the swan.t just turned out to be a beautiful outcome, and the kids loved it. their faces were just blowing. glowing.blowing they thought it was incredible and they were already working with jo jo mann at the time. at the time. ma a ma had an yo-yo established relationship. damien reached out to me on facebook. you tell me you love my style and that he wanted to get me and jo jo together. i looked them up, like who is this yo-yo guy? the last time i heard you you -- yo yo was in the middle school bathroom. i looked them up and found out all the amazing things he was a part of an all the awards he had one. how he was this prodigy at a very young age playing for all our presidents. i just thought it was amazing, this is an incredible opportunity. i was living in l.a. at the time that they reached out to me. this is when i was 19 or 20 years old. and joew i was in l.a. jo happened to have a concert at the walt disney concert hall here. so i met up with him there and the first thing he said to me "l

stuart: do you see this as a black swan event?economy or the stock market. does this rise to that level, a black swan level? >> i think if you look at the oil price last three or four years, is priced into the price of oil, i agree that this is something that's going to cause real problems for the economy, but it is half expecting this which is why you haven't seen the robust economic growth. if we were to do what katie was talking about, continue to drill for oil and gas and coal, that would be not committing ourselves. that is why it is so important to become essentially an energy freezone. we wouldn't have an economic recovery at all today over the last three or four years but was not for the energy industry. why would you stick a knife in the back of the carbon industry when in fact this is causing the road. he probably would not have been reelected. stuart: image where we would have been if we had a cheap energy policy. it will be cheap. if we had that can imagine with growth rate we would have. >> it would be much higher. th

all this has been treated as a black swan. there is no black swan in intelligence. >> [indiscernible] >> he is on the record to the president of the united states. by instability in ukraine, the chances of ukraine being accepted as a member are about zero right now. and that is one of the objects. -- outcomes. i would like to thank everybody. including our viewers on c-span and the heritage viewers on the internet. you are an excellent audience. and of course, we thank our speaker and we wish him all the best personally, personal safety, and political success to you. thank you very much. [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2014] [captioning performed by national captioning institute] >> president obama is back at the white house today after a four-day trip through europe that included stops in poland, brussels, and france. the trip concluded yesterday. through the course of his trip, the president also attended the annual g7 summit and held one-on-one meetings with david cameron and francois hollande. you can fi

watch what he's doing, at the black swan pub. he's got a beer, looking around. >> looks suspicious. >> watch what he does, takes his hands, takes something, puts it in the jacket. what is it? a charity box. people make donations for children with cancer, special needs children, hitting up all pubs in u.k. police think he's done it a half dozen times. >> man, what? >> bad guy in the u.k., and now a bad guy here in the states. 7:00 a.m. gas station, dressed in black, goes to the white vehicle, pumping gas in the white vehicle, a 79-year-old man. the 79-year-old is the victim in this. at first, the guy says, give it up, old man, trying to get the wall wallet. reaches for the wallet, the man says, no way, fights back, restrains the guy from stealing the wallet, get into a tussling here. that's when the bad guy says i have a gun, doesn't point it, but, hey, i have a weapon on me. the 79-year-old man says, you're not going to get my wallet. you have to shoot me first. put up that fight. so long that somebody from 7-11 noticed, came out

we should do a swan. no. the voices are telling me we should do a swan made of doves. poop down each other's throats and it leaks and we like, spill it on the carpet at the holiday inn and we lose our deposit i'm not even joking this is gonna be an amazing wedding man! [ laughter and applause ] i'm so excited for this. it's gonna be so great. i can't bring the laptop in to you. why? because my back is stuck like this get in here. i'm so excited for this [ humming wedding march ] ♪ i'm getting married before my sister ♪ you've been awesome. babe. babe. babe. babe. babe. babe. babe. babe. babe. babe. babe. babe. is it cold outside? [ laughter ] thank you so much! [ cheers and applause ] ♪ >> jimmy: oh my goodness, finally. you are awesome. iliza shlesinger right there! [ cheers and applause ] you can find her special "war paint" on netflix and on itunes. we'll be right back, everybody. [ cheers and applause ] ♪ [casino sounds] >> man: yeah [speaking excitedly] >> man: yeah [speaking excitedly] [dog bark] >> man: yeah [speaking excitedly] [loud kiss smack] >> man: yeah [s

is it the black swan event the market bears born about?, michael? >> i don't believe so, stuart. i am a little bit horrified of what is going on, but the market doesn't seem to be affected by this. the bowls are still in control of the market. a lot of controversy over benghazi. i don't think if we had a true black swan all the oil fields would be under control of the terrorists. it seems the government is gaining a little bit of ground today, situation will be fluid, but i don't see this as a black swan for the market right now. stuart: that is it for today's halftime report. after the break, the latest viral video and women behind it, this is the future of the internet. ♪ [ chainsaw buzzing ] humans. sometimes, life trips us up. sometimes, we trip ourselves up. and although the mistakes may seem to just keep coming at you, so do the solutions. like multi-policy discounts from liberty mutual insurance. save up to 10% just for combining your auto and home insurance. call liberty mutual insurance at... to speak with an insurance expert and

. >> and some like this are a swan-shaped lamp. and colin says he did not recognize his own talent for his craft until he was nominated for the honor. >> i didn't think it was anything special, i was just doing what i was doing and enjoying it. >> and the young artist using some of his money from the award to travel to amsterdam this fall to continue his studies. lisa thomas laury, channel 6 "action news." >>> superheroes of all ages enjoying the wizard world comic convention. and wearing their sci-fi gear going through comics books and some of our superheroes it were on hand to sign autographs today. >> the phillies with a mini hot streak. can they keep it going? >> we shall see. a.j. burnett on tonight. and they are not out of contention facing the cardinals in st. louis tonight. the phills won last night 4-1. as he seemingly always does in his hometown ryan howard with a big game. and including his 14th homer of the season. the phillies within four games much first place warring -- washington. >>> and ashe in the line-up tonight

don't make me get my swan out. >> seth: thank you so much for being here.. give it up for alan cumming, everyone! [ cheers and applause ] you can see him in the roundabout theatre's production of "cabaret" at studio 54. we will be right back with more "late night." ♪ nobody ever stomped their foot and asked for less. because what we all really want... ...is more. there's a reason it's called an "all you can eat" buffet. and not a "have just a little buffet". that's the idea behind the more everything plan. it's more of everything you want. for less. plus, get the droid maxx by motorola for 0 down. get more with our best plans on the best network. for best results, use verizon. people shave you, pour hot wax on you. they don't treat you like skin. presenting dove advanced care. clinically proven to reduce irritation. so you can be a softer, smoother, more beautiful little armpit. sfx: car unlock beep. vo: david's heart attack didn't come with a warning. today his doctor has him on a bayer aspirin regimen to help reduce the risk of another one. if you've had

are black swans on the horizon? >>> some big news in the oil sector. the u.s. will start exporting crude for the first time since the 1970s. what that means not only for oil prices but the oil refiners. >>> and shares of general mills taking a hit. there's a seismic shift in the american break fft and the stocks that will be impacked the most. we have them on the "power lunch." now back to melissa and the "fast money halftime report." >>> gopro has become a world sensation. should you also love the stock? the reason why so many people love it is the thought that it could be a content company, which seems at the face of it like a big leap. >> it is a bit of a leap were they're bringing roughly, what, melissa, 11% of the valuation public. so, again, that will be a tight offering in my mind. we're trying to get clients in on the ipo itself. would i buy it after it prices $21 to $24, would i buy it after it ipos? no, i won't do that for the clins. if you can get in before, there could be a $5 pop out of this one. >> i t

. >> ross, your thoughts on congressman cantor's swan song there?he swan song was gracious and you know, he seemed upbeat and positive, like a man who is about to probably make a lot of money in some other line of work that doesn't involve dealing with the media quite as much. and then to the question about republicans, there are two possible scenario. one this is a doorway into a new round of republican civil war that ends in another shutdown scenario and probably a democrat, probably hillary clinton, being elected president 2016. the other scenario is that some of the legitimate grievances raised against cantor, just against the political leadership, will be actually addressed with a positive policy agenda. and that's sort of the solution the party needs. but you know -- >> ross, jenny beth, thank you, appreciate. that's it for "the lead." i'm jake tapper. i turn you over to wolf blitzer in "the situation room." >> thanks very much. happening now, the breaking news following, gop shockwaves, the house majority leader eric cantor speaking out, sayi

. >> we have trumpeter swans nesting, we have wolves, we have loons, we have our deer population, i mean it's just a beautiful, beautiful area that you can't just, um, ya know take this area here and we'll say okay we will make this place, we'll put the water here. i mean you can't replace an ecosystem. >> what's at stake for you? >> for me? um... i guess it's just the morality of it. i find it immoral to destroy something like this. >> in nearby hurley there's a long history of mining and greater support for gtac. leslie kolesar is the chairwoman of the mining impact committee. >> both of my grandfathers, six of my uncles worked in gogebic range iron mines. ya know people forget that these gogebic ranges mines we built america. we helped win world war one and world war two. >> why is it important for this mine to go forward and what are the stakes and why are you supportive of it? >> if you look at our local economy we have the highest unemployment rate in the state. thirteen point three percent unemployment and the people who are working here, those tourism jobs are paying seven dollar

. >> when it's lifted out of the water so the heavy [inaudible] probably going to be a swan, they'll go to anchorage nine, will submerge itself down about 25 feet, dry dock number one will be floated over the top of it and then it will deballast and lift up and then when it breaks the water again the loading operation is complete and the transaction triggers title transfers. >> great, that's wonderful. i think it's wonderful that we have been able to come up with this option and have a second option available if needed. and i think what you didn't mention in the history is that we did try to sell it before and we thought we were successful and then broke away and we got it back. and so for the last 10, 15 years we've been trying to find ways to dispose of it. the fact that the timing and funding came in and to be able to have great options is really wonderful and to be able to transfer title as soon as -- is absolutely fabulous. i want to thank the whole team for putting this package together and i'm going to keep my fingers crossed that we actually see it sail away. >> thank you, me

gets al swan craig to line out. gives up one run in 7 2/3.hillies win 4 -1. >>> nba draft is exactly one week from tonight. 76ers hold the third overall pick. they may need to adjust their draft board. one of the top three prospects joel embiid will have surgery tomorrow to repair a stress fracture in his right foot. he he had been making the rounds with predraft workouts. >>> eagles rapped up their three day mini camp. training camp will begin next month. no official date has been announced for training camp. chip kelly said the team had 35 days between today and the start of camp. that would be friday july 25th. while the players may have the next month off, the work will continue. >> we've done a lot of hard work, so it would be foolish right now to really get away from football completely, lifting completely. you can't just knock it out for 35 days. then you are really going to be going backwards. >> biggest thing is not to lose the edge over the next month and half out on our own. stay in shape, stay on your playbook. come back and pick

will be, another person will relapse in the future and if i can read just one quote from the jeff ry swan sun, professor of psychiatry at duke university, who gets a lot of questions if they can predict violence or not and whether we should take their rights away and basically they come down to the psychiatrists and psychologists are not good at predicting violence in the future. so facing taking our rights away on a prediction of the future is a huge civil liberties issue. so i hope that we do not implement laura's law. >> thank you. next speaker please (applause). >> good morning, supervisors, my name is sheila ganz thank you so much supervisor farrell for introducing this bill, thank you supervisor campos for your amendments and supervisor tang, i live in the sunset. i am here today to strongly urge you to vote yes for laura's law, the right for treatment for severely mentally ill or assisted outpatient treatment. i am a member of nami my sister has schizophrenia and if her illness became so severe that she ended up on the street with no treatment, i would have devastated. she is a sen

plus a damning report against america's swan armed police units for hundreds of militarized raids on civilian homes which led to a number of deaths. the national coming to you live from moscow i'm marina joshie welcome to the program syria has joined the fight against sunni jihad is terrorizing neighboring iraq carrying out air strikes against isis militants the insurgents have already seized several air bases oil and gas fields conducting indiscriminate bombing attacks along the way the jihad as bloody advance has already left more than a thousand people dead mainly civilians according to the u.n. the most recent casualties reported are fifteen killed in attacks on baghdad and six others in the contested city of kirkuk those who was there. were in the heart of downtown trick cooper just moments ago a suicide bomb went off right here on this street now the details so far barkeep but what we've heard from officials is that one man a suicide bomber list. seen on the street wearing an explosive device a vest he was actually aiming for the building down there it's a kurdish political par

plus a damning report against america's swan armed police units for hundreds of militarized raids on civilian homes which led to a number of deaths.

uh well i did some tests at robert wood johnson on me i think it was a swan test mm hmm and one side of my heart was able to take that both sides of my heart i guess you know were failing? were failing right and i thought well you know what is my alternative? what was it? i wouldn't be here today if doctor bastides... you're pretty confident of that? absolutely he is right? yeah most of these patients when they get to the point where they're hospitalized for recurrent bouts of chf... when they have... chf - congestive heart failure? congestive heart failure when they have this weakened heart state again from heart attacks sometimes we see patients with viral myocarditis there's a host of things that can cause it in his case it was prior mi prior heart attack myocardio...? myocardio influction ...influction right so once they have that and they come in there are some medicines we call them ianotropes that can help the heart squeeze and we can send paients home and i believe we started him on some and they do help for some time but it's limited we can go up on the dosing eventually the

charles: the black swan is extraordinarily rare.xtraordinarily rare not once-in-a-lifetime it happens every other day. it is commonplace. talk about getting out of afghanistan in a responsible way. but everybody goes the same direction the only reason this is mitigated is the oil production in america. why keystone has more permits with gasoline and crude this is nuts. the reason why it is the of blacks won because of the miracle of fracking. stuart: $106 a barrel by now. what is it doing to gas prices pushing them up right now? the national average is $3.64 on the way up just a little bit but gas could spike may be one dime a gallon. leges to joins us now. argues strong on that prediction $0.10 higher because of iraq? >> i think in the next few days we have seen the reaction in the marketplace over the last four days or wholesale prices are up through six or $0.14. one does not need to be cannes -- john maynard keynes to see this. stuart: but when i go to my gas station and i expect to see the guy changing the science will it hit t

yeah so i have a swan my first song that i saying is called my nose ain't broken which is all basically you know that's how rocky exists in his life is you know one thing and it's sort of this you know you're getting a flavor for the voice later on as the show exists i start going into power ballads that are coming from my heart i think that's what lynn air and steve flaherty did so well about writing the score a day have these songs come from this character's hearts i'm getting the impression you are loving this i'm loving it's absolutely you can may i mean it's a lot of how about the matinees they're tough they've won the s a day and then in the evening show later they're very tough and we're doing you know right now is award season so every morning i'm getting up at like eight in the morning to impress jock and then going over to to do the matinee but at the same time i'm just writing this tremendous wave of. something that i truly believe in and rock is such a great piece for everyone to know about you know the human condition so some having a great time it's a big big difference in

bearded ladies, siamese twins, the living skeleton, the giantist anna swan, zip the pinhead, the lion-faced man. my friends, this show would certainly offend modern sensibilities. but it was wildly successful. as p.t. barnum put it, nobody ever lost a dollar by underestimating the taste of the american public. [laughter] the american public is still interested in side shows. that's why every day the mainstream media portrays the conservative movement as a side show. and they present a parade of horribles, candidates who are portrayed as uncaring about the needs of women and minority groups. politicians who are said to promote xenophobia and fear of immigrants. and rich old white men who are seemingly focused on lowering their tax rates and preserving their wealth instead of paying their fair share. day after day the media tells stories like these in lurid detail. through these reports the entire conservative movement is depicted as a parade of human oddities, just as shocking and just as fascinating as a circus side show. and many conservatives fear that the media-reported freak shows may t

all this has been treated as a black swan stop there is no black swan in intelligence. >> [indiscernible] record to thee president of the united states. thenstability in ukraine, chances of ukraine being accepted as a member are about zero right now. objects.is one of the i would like to thank everybody. including our viewers on c-span and the heritage viewers on the internet. you are audience. and of course, we thank our speaker and we wish him all the best personally, personal our [applause][applause] political best to you. but thank you very much. [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2014] [captioning performed by national captioning institute] on thethese events heritage foundation at www.c-span.org. coming up later, campaign finance and how that affects free speech. like coverage of that at 2 p.m. eastern on c-span. live now to the white house press briefing with jay carney. >> and has begun the process of , and that will take some time, no doubt the duration of his captivity. -- no doubt, given the duration of his captivity. event, givenelcome that our single prisoner

>> no, i think that individual investors are worried they are loolooking for that black swan, that i want to pin this iraq situation on being that, it is not. charles: almost anybody watching this show, if they have been in the market for last, i don't know, dozen years, they have been scorched twice, we understand. people feel the greater argument there is no leadership. >> there is none at all. that is a big part of it. you worry about oil. the most complicated supply chain like ever. you don't know where it is coming from. there is too much exterior involvement. we rely on the nuts that hate us. charles: great time to blow the whistle, payne's investment playbook. interesting thing. are crowds delusional? you joseph kennedy was famous for a lot of things createing that family dynamic in politics. but, he said, i knew it was time to sell when my shoe shine boy gave he a stock tip. a couple weeks ago the market was indifference, it has changed and investors have become more bullish. this makes people worried, we could trace it back to 1841, when charles mackey wrote, the opportunitt

>> you watch, this could be the black swan. >> bring up that direction.t's time to buy some stock. charles: kate rogers, what do you say? >> google, facebook, her latest move has people concerned over their privacy. charles: maybe i watch too many james bond movies. but also remember this, i will say it again because this is not about countdowns to the crash. successful investing ideas is to build your portfolio over time and that's exactly what we're going to do here. we start to peel back the layers and we get all of this you can make some money. so let's do it. so we are talking about the link between the middle east market and the big news is al qaeda after taking over the country's second-largest city. 429 million, that is a drop in the bucket if they seize control of that country and all of that oil revenue. we'll search into its highest level in a year. and nothing has our economy quite like this. what is the danger as this whole thing plays out in the worst-case scenario? >> i think the danger is the correction and it is national security. just pa

one of his final swan said you imagine here is a guy who is 12 and nobody is ever flown. skip forward another 10 years enhanced fighting in the flood skies above. in eastern airlines he was not as a president he was not open to jets coming in. he thought that they were going to be technology was unproven and a number of things. he was that great advocate and that was one of his want on factually that god had moved out. >> what he said the most produced multiengine aircraft come is that fighter and bomber or just wal-mart? >> fighter and bomber and commercial. it depends how you count because there's different variations they go by different names other than be 24. most people estimate the total number produces 18 or 19,000 that the dramatically greater number than any other plane. the next one is the b-17 that's about 30,000. it's a big difference. >> he found two other aircraft. can you tell us what he found? >> i probably better leave that to pack, but the question in case anyone missed it was what the two other aircraft were. people are sensitive about revealing too mu