let's bring in paul hickey. why?well, i mean, you hear when oil goes up that it's bad for the market. now year hearing it when it goes down. the bottom line is falling oil is only bad for people who are selling oil. the rest of the economy it's an input in every other sector of the economy and it's a good thing, and if you look just translating that to the stock market historically, falling oil prices have been good for every single sector except energy. every sector during bear markets in oil has averaged a gain expect energy and when oil is in a bear market, the s&p 500 historically has only been in correction mode 21% of the time. so 81% of the time the market is rallying when oil is falling. >> four sectors that perform the best are -- >> so the thing is oil has come down a lot. we're already in a bear market. this is well-known. it's the second longest in the last 30 years. there's been only four other bear markets that have lasted six months or longer in oil so what we did is look at sectors that perform at the

paul hickey crunched the numbers. he joins us now. great to see you. >> good to be here. >> what should we expect? >> they kinds of periods, the decline was shocking to a lot of people, but i think the rebound was even more shocking. we looked at this three-week period we had seen. we compared it to every other 15-days period in the s&p 500. ened we found ten periods with the highest correlation to what we're seeing now. you tornado ton a market average game of about 1%, but ups and downs. the average maximum drawdown over that one-month period, and it's only two periods where we saw a decline of under 1%. so our view is i think we'll by higher than that at the end of the year, but i think investors are going to be better served waiting for, you know, a bit of a sell offin the next couple weeks. there is some sort of pullback. >>> and what periods were the maximum drawdowns in? do you remember? >> i don't have them off the top of my head, but -- in all through three periods you saw a decline of more than 2%. so you tend to see some so

let's bring in paul hickey. nice to see you. analysts are a contrarian indicator? >> yeah.he worse. analysts haven't been this bearish into an earnings season since q2 2012 reporting period, over two years. what you find is looking back at the quarters, revisions, the's been 15 quarters where negative revisions have exceeded positive revisions and s&p 500 in earnings season through walmart's report up 80% of the time. average gain over 2%. median over 4%. conversely with seven quarters where sentiment more positive revisions than negative revisions the market is only up in earnings season three of those seven times with an average decline of 1.5% so when you -- you know, may not feel good the negative sentiment but for a bull better to be going it alone than analysts at your side. >> this extends to individual stocks so the more negative revisions there are on a particular stock the more likely it will do okay? >> i mean, you think think about it this way. expectation game. sentiment is weak. news is priced in. case in point is transocean. the stock right now yielding 10% a