joining us now is kevin daly. always a pleasure.nths ago, will looking at a rate hike toward the end of 2014 at three months later, the second half, what is going on? >> it would be a huge surprise if there was any policy change. yet, three months ago, people considered it certainty there would be a policy change by the end of this year. expectation far have shifted in the space of three months. we, on the whole, have been dovish than the market consistently in recent years. q1are still holding on to 2015 hike. we think that risk has shifted toward the later mode. the market is pricing in toward the second half of next year. we think that the shifted too far. >> inflation report next week, i was saying i think it tells more about what is happening in the world. house prices. the obsession next order is wages. europeang to guess slowdown. what really matters right now for setting rates? >> you are absolutely right. satan will be the big day. -- and next wednesday will be that big day. , really theey said big thing driving them is the