mark carney will present the inflation report. ing you that live and in fall on bloomberg. ♪ >> welcome to "the pulse." let's get some company news. costello needs to focus his message on how the company has built its digital advertising business. he is under fire after investors question the slowing advertising growth. nine-month sales of nearly 500 million euros for moncler. they are looking to expand their brand and retail channel. ferrari is being spun off to raise capital for an innovation business plan. the ceo is not planning how much it will raise. >> anytime i tell you about value today, it is going to change. the conversation with most of the bankers who are talking to us, the one thing i know for sure is that we are going to get a lot. the best thing for sure is just going to wait -- is to wait until we go public. >> let's see where the pound is racing ahead today. sterling is very much in business in advance of the quarterly inflation report from the bank of england. we had data a little while ago. we are starting to se

you can see the air bag still inflated in the car. unfortunately -- and she has given us permission -- when the lieutenant was being carried to the hospital, that's what hah she looked like. so lieutenant erdman, if you would share with us your story of what happened. >> yes, sir. good morning everyone. ladies and gentlemen, my name is stephanie erdman. i'm honored to be here today to serve as the voice for the people who have been forever silenced because of this exploding takata air bags. on behalf of everyone who has suffered because of these defective air bags, i would like to thank the committee for holding this hearing. i hope that no other families will have to go through the ordeal my family and i have had to endure because this happened to me. on september 1st, 2013 my life was changed forever. i was driving my 2002 honda civic on highway 98 near egg land air force base, florida where i was stationed. i was on my way to get groceries with a friend. as i was driving, a car took a left in front of me. our cars collided. when th

it's the dual stage driver's side inflater. at that time, the bmw, the inflater we supplied to the bmw is psda 4. the psdf 4 is a construction structor of the inflater. it looks the same from our side but the difference from psdi and produced in a different line. so that's the major reason, is the psdi was recalled. but we answered to the bmw that the psda 4 is a different structure. >> so when did you become aware that there were problems with the bmw? air bags? >> i'm sorry i'm not familiar. i don't know the actual date. >> thank you. >> just so it's clear to everybody, what we're talking about -- this is the steering -- middle of the steering wheel. this is the inflater. and it fits in there. and then when the impact occurs, the explosion is supposed to come this way. but as we said earlier, if the explosive force is too great it breaks off this metal, and the metal starts coming through the middle. every one of us at this hearing table have had constituents affected by this. in florida, right in central florida, we've had on

this is the inflator. when the impact occurs the explosion is supposed to come this way, but as we said earlier, if the explosive force is too great it breaks off this metal, metal, and the metal starts coming through the middle. every one of us at this hearing table has had constituents affected by this in florida, right in central florida we have had one death. and in the case of cory bernick, corey bernick, a fireman, a firefighter, he has know why. very similar to the situation of the lieutenant, but in this lieutenant, but in this case the metal penetrated his actual life. this is why we are so concerned about this and to get to the bottom of this. senator ayotte. >> i want to thank the chairman and ranking member for holding this important hearing. i wanted to follow-up on a question that the senator asked you about with regard to the report in the new york times about the 2,004 secret test by teesixteen. as i takata. as i heard your testimony in response to her question, you said that takata was not

complacent, have the very watchful that low inflation does not start economy is in the outlook. re several channels which low inflation can have this effect, including a complicated price adjustments between countries and worsening the effects of it overhang. that -- debt overhang. two prolonged periods of inflation become embedded in inflation expectations. the current manual for inflation expectations is critical under any circumstances as it ensures that temporary movements to not feed into wages and prices and become permanent. it is more critical in the circumstances we face today, this is because if inflation expectations fall the real which is the rises interest rate that matters most for investment decisions. because nominal short-term rates have already reached the affective lower bound they cannot be adjusted downward further to compensate for this. any da great -- de-anchoring of expectations would cause the opposite of what we want to see. we are currently seeing volatility in expectations and indicators are on the whole in a range with what we consider consistent wit

this is the inflator. and it fits in there. and then when the impact occurs, the explosion is supposed to come this way, but as we said earlier, if the explosive force is too great, it breaks off this metal and the metal starts coming through the middle. every one of us at this hearing table has had constituents affected by this. in florida, right in central florida, we've had one death. and in the case of corey b berdicht, a firefighter, he has no eye now for the rest of his life. very similar to the situation of the lieutenant, but in this case the metal had penetrated his actual eye. so this is why we're so concerned about this an to get to the bottom of this. senator ayotte. >> i want to thank the chairman and ranking member for holding this very important hearing. i wanted to follow up, mr. shimizu, with -- on a question that senator clohad as you about in regard to the report in "the new york times" about the 2004 secret tests by takata. as i heard your testimony in response to her question, you said that takata wasn't inf

he will give testimony on the quarterly inflation report in which the bank of england lowered forecast for growth and inflation. we'll bring you carney's remarks live when they happen. >> also pope francis will deliver a speech and address unemployment and immigration. in a meeting with bishops last month, the pope alluded to rising unemployment as a big issue and described the continent as wounded. >> coming up, we'll meet the man and the robot behind this revolutionary gaming technology. >> we're looking forward to that. that's what they look like. the studio is being controlled by its inventor. why this could be one of the great gadgets for christmas. everything goes to your smart phone but robotics one of the top stories we're watching here. we'll talk about that on the program. we have some great packages to show you as well. we'll see you in a moment. ♪ >> french manufacturing and business confidence numbers both beat estimates. we're counting down until thursday when the e. sumbings expected to make an official announcement on whether or not to penalize the economy for not meeti

it's the driver-side inflator. other times the bmw supplied the bmw with the psc f-4 and the psc f-4 is a structure that looks the same from the outside but different and produced in a different line so that's the major reason is the psc i was recalled but the ps j. fours a different structure. >> so when and this is my last question when he landed he become there were -- when were you aware that there were problems with the bmw airbags? >> i'm sorry, i don't know. >> all right, thank you. >> just so it's clear to everybody, what we are talking about, this is the middle of the steering wheel. this is the inflator and it fits in there and then when the impact occurs, the explosion is supposed to come this way but as we said earlier, if the explosive forces to grade it breaks up this medal and the metal starts coming through the middle. every one of us at this hearing table has had constituents affected by this. in florida, right in central florida we have had one death and in the case of cory burdick a fireman, a fir

the bank of england inflation is the big one. we will talk about the bank of japan after the break. ♪ >> welcome back. i am jonathan ferro live from london. you can go online, your phone, amazon tv and even apple tv. may postpone a plan sales-tax higke. japanese equities have gone up suspending a six-year high. still with us is the chief economic advisor and bloomberg news columnist. we will start with the bank of japan. i will come out with a load of numbers. the annual targets is ¥83. it will hit 70% of gdp next year. there 21% of national debt. talk to me about the risks that has been accumulated. >> the risk is that this is not part of a comprehensive approach. in markets love it because the short term that is great. let's understand that this was supposed to be part of comprehensive approach. the three arrows. we have not gotten that critical third arrow. the risk is they will get too much of the burden and at the end of the day, they find out they cannot deliver. then japan is worse off. >> i look at some comments this morn

but the main effect, of course, is inflation is lower. they have to deal with more inflationary consequences. >> the fed may have missed its inflation target for 29 months in a row, i would think most consumer would cheer that. they miss on the low side. the number versus come in lower than they wanted. >> that feels good to most people. >> i don't think it does, one of the lowest once, on the last jobs report, wages rose last month by zero. so that low inflation. people have a lot of nominal obligations they have to pay for. a little inflation is good. it makes the house papers go up the burden of your mortgage payments last. everybody recognizes inflation. you got those nominal liabilities. so, you know, this undershooting is one of the things that helps keep the economy under a lot of strain and the feds want to get the inflation back. from a monetary palmettos the old rule is inflation overshooting is good. but we've come to appreciate the risk of deflation and the problems that low inflation creates for this economy. >> all right a lo

now, the governor says inflation is about 11%. it might fall below that levels, he says, in the early short-term. but in fiscal 2015 he sees japan reaching that 2% inflation role. now, the pressure he faced today at the news conference was because of this. two years ago when the abe nomics plan was rolled out, it was a two-pronged approach. that two prongs were, one, monetary easing when the bank of japan delivered last month and the other side of that was fiscal reform. now, this press conference gave it a difficult time. here, the bank of japan is holding up its own part of the agreement, but just yesterday, prime minister abe has backtracked on fiscal reform by delaying the consumption tax high. >> take horry, how about the timing of abe calling for an election. comes after poor gdp figures which to the outside might suggest bad timing. but at the same time, the nikkei is at record highs. are abe's election hopes tied to where the nikkei is at? >> in a way, if you control generally sentiment is more lifted when the rally, despit

the minutes are a big concern about inflation. stabor markets -- the set of federal leases was much more hawkish around the labor markets and underutilization. this seems to reinforce that idea that labor markets are strong in the pet is confident in that. deal when youed have weakness in japan and additional weakness in europe? how does that filtered through to expectations in the u.s.? says things like lower oil prices will help the consumer. inflation still remains below the fed's threshold of 2%. is that a cause for concern? >> great question. there is a couple of issues here. to get inflation, you need spending. because we have not seen wage inflation, it has been difficult to raise prices on wages that are fairly stagnant. we see the commodities complex continue to trade week. we will continue to see weak commodity prices. keep a damperto on this inflation expectation. we do not expect to see a sharp rise in inflation anytime soon. downplayingymakers the language we have seen? as the guidance been too ambiguous? >> the guidan

what is going to happen is the inflation, as it slows, is going to boost the real wages of japanese households. we should see this continuing trend for inflation below 1%. although bad for the boj, that is good for the economy. it is more real money in people's pockets. a pickup of real wages and a pickup of consumption as inflation growth slows. did have some good news out of all that data this morning. industrial production coming in better than expected. what was behind that? >> we have had to consecutive good industrial data. it unexpectedly rose in october. the big reason for this was a large increase in shipments and production of business machinery, things like cranes and machines used to build products. what that shows is that japanese companies are becoming more confident and are investing in capital goods that they can use in the future. one of the factors was, there was a big drawdown in inventories. companies are forecasting growth through the end of the year and that is a sign that consumption is rebounding and people are spending more. good news for the fourth quarter. james, tha

were running in all directions running across runaways officers cunningham and lee invited it the inflatable one failed to open and was blocking the exits the fight tenants were yelling and it was trapping phasing e passengers in the seats the police officers purchased the inflatable things and the officers cunningham and lee through their knives to purchase the tubs at the end of the rear the it blocked with debris officer cunningham and others who were dressed that their uniforms no breathing apparatus and no tools both of them entered the burning plane they encountered tick thick black smoke the inside of the cabin rows of seats were twisted a in several directions and the passengers were trapped in their seats the overhead badge compartments had fallen under the passengers pinning them and many of the passengers were in shock and so badly injured unable to evacuate officer began urging physical force to help and handed the debris to other officers and they threw it away interest the plane they helped the passengers to be evacuated the officers gave the evacuation instructions to you'll a

we don't expect the inflation rate to hit 2% already next year. so it's still about moving the economy and getting inflation expectations into the economy. that is the main task for this year, next year. >> members of a government panel are hearing what experts have to say about raising the consumption tax. they are giving their take on the planned increase as well as sharing their outlook on the japanese economy. abe will take their views into account when he decides whether to raise the rate in october of next year. >> translator: our population is rapidly aging and the birthrate is low. we need to increase the tax on schedule. >> translator: the consumption tax hike in april has been weighing down on households like a body blow. >> the panel will hear from a total of 45 people in five meetings this month. welfare minister asked a team of experts to come up with ways to strengthen investment risk control at the pension fund. the team was formed by the government pension investment fund last week. it adopted a new investment strategy. they have as

we see the unemployment rate is coming down. sure there's this inflation issue but how would you describe how the economy doing right now? >> the domestic economy doing okay. the challenge for as you might suspect is when we look at overall growth, thra. our exports are going to be much g that then generally ex fed is unlikely as tyler has suggested -- the fed is unlikely to be raising rates any time soon. >> are you worried as some are about falling oil prices or as a well, unfortunately, tyler, in this short run historically, falling oil prices have been a d what has been a very strong energy engine in terms of destruction, building, drilling activity in the united states for the last for the american consumer by the short run, a big shock to the energy sector. that tends to be a negative, tyler, for the overall u.s. economy. >> john, i know you're an economist and not a market strategist, but you have views on the stock market. what do you think is the outlook on the stock market given this confusio is that when the fed is talking about perhaps below tr

the german inflation rate in november declined. we are likely to see the eurozone fall lower today as well. want to see more stimulus come from mario draghi. the president of the ecb said he could expand asset purchases to stave off deflation. >> let's keep an eye on the yen. the japanese yen is falling against the dollar to the tune of 4/10 of a percent. we have lack of inflation. the yen is weakening. we saw inflation down. we sell retail sales as well. more is needed to come from the bank of japan and the leaders of japan. monetary stimulus is needed. they want to see something coming from the government. japanese trading. we see the yen becoming that much weaker. that is a picture of what is going on in the assets. they could be selling some spanish assets. >> caroline hyde with the latest. let's get an investor stake on the top market stories. head ofoined by the investors across bridge capital, where he helps oversee more than $2 billion in assets. good to have you on the program. when you look at the world, it doesn't seem ve

what is the threat of inflation right now? a lot of the numbers we look at suggest that we are going to see inflation in the u.s. the fed still doesn't think so. if you read about what yellen says, it is all excuses about why we don't have wage pressure. if you look at the credit rate in the u.s., that is picking up. you don't quit your job unless you are confident you can get a new job. the difficulty hiring people, that is also getting more difficult. theertain sectors of market, there will be upward pressure in wages. >> are we looking at a strong u.s. economy? >> i think it is very strong. we had seen initial figures looking incredibly strong. the u.s. is just a powerhouse of growth at the moment. i don't think it is something to be sneezed at. you have to consider that when you invest. we have a large allocation to the u.s. >> and i better off getting direct exposure to the u.s. equity market or looking for european companies with u.s. exposure and getting the 1-to hit on the exchange rate as well? >> we go for the compan

expectations are not the ankle rate. inflation expectations would equal monetary tightening, i.e., would harm the fragile economic recovery. also, that he was referring to the recent data from yesterday that the pmi levels are showing that a stronger recovery is rather unlikely in the coming months. it was probably back in the view of the doves in the markets. we are seeing that directly in the euro/dollar exchange rate. the euro is sharply lower versus the u.s. dollar. here there was a clear reaction also to the draghi equities are rallying on the back of those comments. but also, the hawks have some reason to see a backing from draghi, he is reiterating they are preparing for the unconventional measures in case the outcome of already taking measures is not decisions to raise inflation expect actions. with that, back to you. >> annette, thank you very much. the stoxx 600 is up 0.9% off the back of this and the italian ten-year bond yield is at record lows. joining us now, gareth davis is from jpmorgan. there was a bit of someone

we think ultimately those will be successful in raising the inflation expectation and therefore the growth rate in europe. >> is draghi really walking the walk in addition to talking the talk it? sounds like there's a lot of wind-up and not as much pitch here. >> yeah, certainly. he's been winding up for quite some time on this. look, he's got a very difficult political process. he's got to effectively bring the germans along. there's -- you know, the germans will point out there's a legality issue as it relates to full-blown quantitative easing where the ecb would buy sovereign debt. he's trying to create the conditions so that the necessity to do qe kind of, you know, is the mother of invention in terms of actually being able to get the germans to implement it. if he need to get, there i think he's actually going to be successful. it's not clear he's going to have to go to full-blown quantitative easing however. >> let's move on to a couple of your stock picks. i know you see the u.s., as keith jackson used to see, as the bell cow of the global economy. let's start with your reasoning be

's will be presenting the bank quarterly inflation report and could cut the growth forecast for 2015.age of that inflation report right here on bloomberg. anthe next few hours, unmanned european spacecraft will become the first to land a probe on a comment. rosetta will send a probe to the service of the comment which is between the orbits of mars and jupiter. it will be the culmination of a 10 year mission. scientists say they don't expect to find life. the day of reckoning has arrived. the biggest banks are facing -- penalties over the manipulation of foreign-exchange rates. total, $3.3 billion. authorities investigating claims that dealers colluded with counterparts at other banks to rig the markets. this was a story broken by liam and colleagues here at bloomberg. this time last year. i'm looking at ubs. three quarters of a billion swiss francs from their home regulator which can take a alongn of their profits with the cftc, the american regulator, along with the u.k. have said, we are covered. we took enough provisions in the third quarter. they are also being told to move client

particularly for the central banks that have a strict inflation targeting made does create a dilemma. think the market is probably growthking the implications of lower oil prices because probably more than interest rate stimulus it is percolating to the real economy. that could represent a bonanza going forward. i think this aspect is important. inflation we have seen when oil prices and monetary prices are very high, we see that pass to core inflation. it will be interesting to see if this effect is symmetrical. now that energy prices are low if service prices maintain going forward. >> in terms of this new oil order, where are you playing that in terms of an investment scene. you mentioned it could be good for growth. i am guessing it is good for those countries that import. are you making investment plays into those countries as a result of the lower oil price? >> the pressure is always to try to figure out what is prized and what could change. we talked about the global economy, this artifact the u.s. is going to still carry the weight of growth -- despite the fact the u.s. is goi

it is part of the reason for the movement in this inflation story. crude oil is under pressure. let's have a look at equity markets. equity markets are lower. we will see what is on the agenda. other side of the exchange. he says the ecb should hold on. equities are lower. i am just curious as to whether theoil is on the downside. credit rating is not that good. that is a little lower. let's give you a flavor of what is going on. i know you will do that later in the show. three other companies. cash generation is great. up 8%. we know when older people like me think about retiring we are not going to be forced to buy an immunity. they are going up to companies like bloomberg. that business is 29%. the coin.two sides of cash is king. b&w down 1.4 9%. third quarter numbers beat estimates. profits and margins beat the forecast for the year. the stock down 1.4%. hugo boss, you will get the call. 105.15. momentum across the region. there is a store at the end of his road. their sales are under pressure. previous single-digit figures because of growth. hugo boss under a little pressure

factors in whether the u.s. inflation and the rest of the world could lead officials to start hiking more slowly. >> it could be sometime in the middle of the year. could be june, could be july. even if inflation employment data the right level to start hiking, the fed would like to wait a little bit longer just to make sure that if they start hiking with the liftoff, they're not going to abort it and they can go back to zero. >> roubini also said easing by other central banks could impact the u.s. economy. he's saying even when all the growth, inflation, unemployment is in the right place, even then we won't see the fed start hiking. central banks also overreact to whatever the fear of the day was. then it was inflation and they kept rates prohibitively high. central banks will really not want to have to increase rates and cut them again. that was very positive for equities in the short-term. >> listen, the prospect for rising rates continues to be the big debate. 18 months ago, that's when this talk started on whether t

a huge figure. >> the boj governor kuroda is sticking to his view that he can achieve 2% inflation in two years, despite indications it won't hit that. do you think he's being a bit too optimistic? >> well, as you pointed out at the outset, the expected rate of inflation for fiscal year 2015 was revised downwards from 1.9% to 1.7% which may suggest that -- the achievement of the target in fiscal year 2015 is very difficult. many economists, including myself, think this achievement of the target in two years is very difficult, if not impossible. >> really quickly, the prime minister has, of course, a big decision to make coming up about the next consumption tax increase. does this give him any more justification for that? >> i think in effect today's action by the boj will push mr. abe to make necessary decisions with regard to the tax hike. so i think mr. kuroda denied any intention whatsoever with regard to the tax hike but in effect this will push mr. abe to the corner, to make such a difficult decision. >>> japan's top government spokesperson says north korea has promised to carry

it's the air bag inflater that is the problem. they are not sure why the air bag inflater is not working. if you don't know the root cause of a problem it is hard to do a recall. they need to ramp up manufacturing of the inflaters. let's say you recall 13 million vehicles you are not going to come up with 13 million inflaters overnight. therefore you have in the case of toyota telling people who have passenger side air bags don't let anybody ride on that side of the vehicle in the front seat. that's part of the issue here. they don't know the root cause and have the get the inflaters manufactured as quickly as possible. >> that is the level this goes to. phil, thank you and thanks for following this. >> that is a decision by toyota. >> we are going to move to washington. developing story down there. president obama preparing to unveil his immigration plans probably tomorrow or friday. washington correspondent john harwood has broken the details on the story all day. >> we have all been wondering whether this executive action is re

last night thousands turned out for the annual tradition of inflating the big balloons.er was there. >> reporter: crowds braved the inclement weather on management's upper west side to watch macy's giant parade balloons to come to life. >> i wanted to see them blow up. >> reporter: the tuoma family comes to the inflation every year and admit they like it better than turkey day itself. >> there's different balloons every year, so it makes you want to come back next year and see what other balloons they have. >> reporter: six new balloons will take to the sky on thanksgiving including the popular locomotive thomas the tank engine. thomas is 47 feet tall and needs 75 handlers. the macy's inflation team fills the balloons with mostly helium and lots of it. >> thomas, for example, takes over 20,000 cubic feet. so if you think about a basketball being a little bit less than a cubic foot, you can think it takes maybe 25,000 basketballs to fill thomas. >> this is the order of the parade. >> reporter: linda has been part of the parade for 20 years. she's piloting a balloon, a job

the e.c.b. needs to revise their outlook for inflation. >> that is a big one. >> given the fall in commodity pricesve seen, they will probably have to. i had a discussion with a guest earlier. said we have to look at core inflation and focus on that instead. clearly the european economy is going nowhere. it is a slow grind. ot a fall off a cliff. what more can they do? that is big question. >> there is almost like three things we want to find out. balance sheet and stimulus and then the whole discussion on inflation and deflation and japan. and the third thing is what happens to the banks. are they going to start lending to the real economy? >> yeah, after they cleaned up their balance sheets supposedly, the e.c.b. came out and identified more nonperforming lows. it is about demand. credit, supply. you need demand to match it. the banks say we're ready to lend but demand isn't there right now. emand isn't there. >> a little bit of a catch 22. the u.k. launched an investigation into the small banks and how they deal with small businesses. that demand might not be there because they are afraid to go

at the moment, the lack of inflation, the drop in oil through the big commentary that we're getting out with regard to more stimulus? are we moving towards a new era for markets heading into 2015? >> it's the new normal. the data is due in a couple of minutes or a half an hour or so. it's all data and i think the market is moving on already. the price drop in commodities is compacting forward expectation. and so if you compute credibility on the basis of what the markets are pricing forward, one year forward, two years forward, it's a different story. and we see really a lack of credibility from the ecb. >> how are we supposed to think about oil at the moment? and i'm just glancing at a twitter comment that came through a bit earlier from daniel. he says great, mormon tear ease, lower oil, less inflation equals less money printing and he's pointing out the u.s. markets. he says would cares. >> if you're long stocks, you care. there is a transfer of income across the sector, across inflation, across the age pyramid. that's all stuff we've seen in jap

inflation. of course, a positive indicator for the economy. coming through now, we have got uk october core cpi at 0.2% month on month. 1 .5% year on year. inflation came in a little bit higher than expected. it it was expected to be 1. 2% yearly, but it's come in at 1.2% monthly and 1.5% yearly. have we got the ppi data, as well? >> yeah. if you look at the ppi price for october, a contraction of 0.4% on the year. so a dip in the ppi numbers. that was largely in line with the numbers. so a divergence when you take a look at cpi with inflation. sterling, trading slyly higher, although very flat on the day. up 0.1 is 0%. let's bring in helia ebrahimi. helia, what is your first reaction to these numbers? >> well, cpi is a bit higher. in august, 1.5%, that came down in september's reading. you were talking about the difference between wages and inflation. remember, the bank of england was saying, look, even though we're missing, for 11 months we've missed that 2% target, it's not a big deal. low inflation is caused by super market wares and commod

. >> reporter: when the faulty air bags deployed, the inflater, encased in metal can rupture, sending shrapnel flying. this is one of the many surviving victims. metal pierced through the air bag of her 2002 honda after a minor crash. >> the tip of the shrapnel embedded in my right sinus. >> just this week federal regulators demanded a recall of afted cars nationwide. a move the air bag manufacturer is resisting. >> do you agree or disagree with nts a's call for a nationwide recall? >> it's hard for me to answer yes or no. >> it is not hard for you to answer yes or no. >> the issue remains, what did the companies know about the problems with the air bags and when did they know it? >> takat a's vice president of quality assurance, surrounded by cameras after, but says nothing. victims like erdman hope the start of today's senate probe means being one step closer to getting all vehicles with potentially deadly air bags off the road. >> my vision will never be the same. i will never be the same. >> still to come for you leer on cnn, we'll take you to eastern ukraine where bitter fighting

>> yes. >> the eu commission is forecasting inflation and 0.8% at 2015, that is less than half the ecbt under 2%. so much is hinging on inflation and there were so much hope that we will not fall into deflation, japanese-style loss for 10 years. that is what we are watching out for. >> it is also interesting on the french that they are saying some of the spending cuts are insufficiently specified. that is interesting given what was happening with the budget. i was going to the five-year break evens as well. i was going to see if anything was moving there. in 2015. at a 1.8% yes. 1.82% from here. but if you look at current eu break evens, they have the rate lower than that at the moment. the market is lower than where the ecb is. i wants to see were inflation expectations are five years out. the market is ahead of him. maybe the eu is coming more and line with the market and the ecb is a little behind. maybe a little bit like an outlier. >> it will be interesting to see changeorces draghi to the ecb forecast since they are so far behind at the moment. >> we will continue to watch this a

we do see the economy and inflation. of which does not apply only to monetary policy. creatingurgency in the of -- in the eurozone, urgency in addressing the labor market issues in the euro zone. there is urgency in creating jobs, and that is the only way to reconcile the european people with european project. >> you are talking about how europe needs to grow, we need to push reforms. how much of a danger is it that politicians take a back step? >> we have to be fair and acknowledge. we have seen a number of reforms in a number of countries, with countries under our program. what has been achieved already portugal, in ireland, also in greece, is commendable in terms of social reform and changes in the countries. this is already a lot. a union, which is a huge step forward in terms of the eurozone. now, what needs to be delivered now is work. that is a big investment in that is why the question on the juencker plan is so important. >> what is your main concern facing europe? >> my main concern is that we cannot collectivel

inflation has one outcome. right now when you read these minutes the concern is about too low inflation but they are ultimately dismissing that but watching it carefully. >> let's look at the market reaction here. keep in mind we were slightly moving to the down side ahead of the minutes and we haven't moved that much. the color has changed. the dow has turned positive sitting up by 15 points. we are talking about very mining moves here in reaction to the minutes. >> if we don't finish higher in the s&p 500 we will end that 20 year record streak that we talked about yesterday. >> s&p 500 while you were talking. if it closes higher today that would be the 44th record close of the year so far. >> i'm not sure -- i have no power. stick around. >> take what you can get. >>> lindsay piaza and edward jones investment strategist kate warren. i want to begin with you. your take on the fed minutes from the stuff we have said. >> we would have liked to have seen more specifics in terms of a timeline for the first fed rate increase. instead we saw a more aggressive conversation regarding new and lingering head winds to th

the inflation you're seeing is an asset placed markets. >> kevin will stay with us, after the break we will talk old. if you are waiting for inflation, certainly gold will go high but it has not been. we will see what it means for the big miners after the break. stay with us. ♪ >> welcome back to "on the move ." i am jonathan ferro. larger goldt in a price. we spoke with the ceo and he gave us his outlook. >> because we have allocated for capital at $1000, we can store below 1000 before we go cash flow negative. there is a point, right now the question is, the industry it self -- the cash cross curve is now under pressure and you have to be very careful that you don't make short-term decisions when you are faced with an industry that needs to correct itself. >> let's continue this conversation, joining us now is ryan, will be see gold dipped below $1000? the second big question is what does it mean for the guys who pull this out of the ground? they are forecasting that we could, and price of $800 by the end of next year. they allocate capital at $1000 what he is saying is he is ready t

the meeting. falling inflation was the topic.ipants expected it to move back toward the 2% target over time. they did have some words, many participants said they should to ang -- remain attentive downward shift. such a noted that if downturn occurred, it would be even more worrisome. also, weakness overseas. ifwas observed that conditions deteriorated further, economic growth might be slower than expected. many participants saw the effects of recent developments as likely to be limited. they skip the references to problems overseas and the recent market swings. they agreed on was continuing policy going forward would be a challenge -- communicating policy going forward would be a challenge. a littleght there was something in there for everybody. subbing for the dogs, which was delves -- something for the dogs, which was clarity. >> a lot of focus not just on when rates went up. you talk about the mutual rate, giving description around when we might get to there. a long ways from where we are. if the committee starts raising rate

the inflation data going in the opposite direction. there is no real reason for the if ed to move prematurely. the rest of the world is deflating and desperately trying to reflate so if we got rock bottom interest rates in 60% of the world right now and other countries and areas are trying to get things going that is positive for stocks -- cyclical factors. the october to april holding period. all of that is favorable for stocks, as well. >> it's good to see you on this, our 21st anniversary. let's lock in the viewer vote. 59% said yes, 41% said no. >> a bullish sentiment indicator. >>> berkshire hathaway set to release information today. get this, over the last four months the value of mr. buffet's holdings in ibm alone has gone down a billion dollars. the rest of the portfolio has done better. >> if you take a look at ibm, no secret the slide in ibm shares has hurt warren buffett. ibm shares are down 10%, 11% just since the end of the last quarter. this is june 30 we are talking about. down 11%. if you translate that into what is hap

they managed to look through the non-core inflation in some states do you have to take it into account? intoe you have to take account when you're close to zero when you have policy rates on the floor, you cannot easily lower policy rates at all and qe is -- you have to take into account on the downside like you would not on the upside. gdp report out of the u.k. a little later and david will give us his view on that among many other things, stay tuned. ♪ >> we are back with david the pan-european economist with the second reading of gdp for thethird quarter and .7% is the estimate from the analysts at we have surveyed. have we seen the peak? .9%, isnd quarter was that as good -- mark carney yesterday once again concerned about the heightened external risks. perspective, the external risks may be overdone. when you look at the strength of the u.s. final domestic demand yesterday and the fall and the oil price that we have seen you this weaknessegg we have seen and the eurozone impacting the u.k. because the eurozone has been week for the last two sure years in the eurozone -- and the u