the pros and cons of the economy. ♪ alix: helima croft joining us. love talking to you because of your insight. we do have it the nuclear outline. they make love -- this may have implications all across the oil world. if they are able to flood the market with oil, they could reduce prices by $15. what do you think you? >> it is the speed with which they come back. the question is, what is the speed of recovery? what i tell everyone is it will be a slow return to the market. you have to get a final deal by june 30 and then you have to go through the verification process to make modifications. those have to be verified. then still 6-12 month before sanctions get removed. they say they will be removed immediately. that is a sticking point to a final deal. alix: where you said, do you think the deal actually gets done cap ? >> we were so close to getting a deal in november. so close last summer, and then there were the sticking points. timing of sanctions relief. what you do about fire weston of the military program gekko what do you do-->> what do you d

helima croft. as a doctor in economic history at the university of harold james. elima: he wrote "the history of the imf." tom: what did he tell you about saudi arabia? we all read our history of saudi arabia. get away from peter o'toole and omar sharif. [laughter] helima: it is not germany, it is not europe. the question of having to make that social contract with your population is so enormously important. as saudi look set oil policy they are looking out over the next decade and saying, we have to maintain the social contract. what is the best policy to maximize that? tom: the distinction here -- abu dhabi and dubai, it is literally a tribal distance of 100 miles or so -- it is the same in riyadh. these are collective tribes. will that attitude continue? helima: i think some of the new guard have a very nationalistic, what is best for all saudi's -- a saudi nationalism. tom: interesting. helima: i think of the technocratic excellence they are so invested in how do we use the fruits of oil for the betterment of the population? they have big programs to try to imp

today, we have helima croft, a former economic analyst as well as cia.'s great to have you here. >> thank you. >> respond. what do you think? >> i definitely think we're going to see a recovery in the back half of this year. certainly going into 2016, we're very, very positive. we kind of dodged a bullet in iran. i was expecting more of a selloff. i think people are being sensible now, this is not an event until 2016. but i do think there are a lot of things that could take us either way in the market. we're so close to something happening in the mild east that could move us significantly higher. >> how in the world do you trade it, then? >> if you're just looking at when should cap ex-cuts filter through, you're safe at the back half of this year, certainly q12016. then you have to think about event risks. when saudi sends troops to the border with yemen, you have to be worried about middle east premium kicking back in. >> is there any message in the economy at all on oil's price or 100% a supply issue? >> the dollar has been important for example. i do

through customs a short time ago so we really appreciate it. >> thank you for having me. >> rbc's helima croft do you do with this? >> joe's been dead-on in the whole trade in oil so i defer to you in many cases. but we've been seeing a little pick-up more and more. we talk about the integrated names. we're starting to see it flow down to other names as well. one of john's favorite names, oasis seeing upside activity. so certainly in the energy space has been able to fend off a lot of what's been going on in the broader market. >> it could depend, too, on exactly popping up towards 6, the high end of the band that i've talked about. if they get there for wti, brent is already over that if we get there, then how much production from holes that are already put in out there, go into basically fracking again? because at that level many of those wells that are already at least drilled and not productive, could be put into production. >> i know what i got to ask you about. i forgot because you weren't here the other day. you sold range, right? >> range. >> and the other one? >> eog. >> i still have