the chicago federal reserve puts out their national activity index.t had a big bounce in the month of july. it looked at the economy was doing well in july, third order was off to a better start than people expected. that was going to be supportive of the fed making their move in september. then financial conditions, long. , it the german ifo index was better than people expected. alix: and germany is exposed to china. guest: what was really interesting, in germany the last couple of months there has been a lot of fretting. the expectations part of the index has been weaker. the one i like to look at is current assessment. how is the economy doing? that is a 16 month high. the german economy was doing better. a lot of it is export competitiveness. if you look at the current assessment they were very happy on how things are actually unfolding in the month of august. joe: great stuff -- alix: great stuff. we appreciate your voice on this. joe: we'll be right back. ♪ do not miss this tomorrow. durable goods are out at a: 30 a.m. -- 8:30 a.m. at 3/10ey is

federal reserve. let's get more from bronze -- from john brady. he joins us from chicago.of a roller coaster ride. if you don't like roller coasters, get off, but for those who want to get on and take advantage of this volatility, what does one do? john: volatility is rather elevated here. the thing with volatility that gets difficult for investors or traitors is the fact that once you own it, it is really hard to .wn -- to hold onto really have to time it right. once volatility starts to come off a little bit, it can come off hard, melting like an ice cube in the sun. investors have to be tactical regarding volatility, and another -- and a number of investors globally would say that the best way to be on top of a market is to be short on volatility. the vix has shown that in today's trade. angie: so what do you do? volatilityo the index? how do you buffer yourself from this volatility? you by sectors, stocks? what do you do? hn: there are a couple of ways to do it. you halve maen volatility vix, butuch as the there are other -- you have many volatility indexes such as the

chicago by ira epstein, lin group. get a quick take on gold. we had a lot of federal reserve discussions, a lot of dollar discussions.is going on with gold? >> this environment safe haven came out. gold has gone from 1073, to roughly 1168. if you had a chart showed 100 day moving average of closes the market rallied up to the bellwether number. it stopped. it has backed off about 25 or $30. the question is the next move. it probably has more upside, especially given what is going on now in china. connell: some upside in gold. what about oil? a lot of talk about the oil price of 40. and you know, the two sides of it, where some people said, helping out consumer. we have he lower gas prices. what is the next move for oil do you think? >> it has been on the move. still on a down move, but probably overdue for consolidation of price. anything near $40 is where i'm looking in that general range, give or take $2 to do consolidation to figure out where is goes next. idea going straight down to 30, forget it. like when gold was 1900, like it was going to 2500, you don't want to get caught in extremes. another 20% drop? diffi

chicago with the latest in energy. major questions in all of this. how much more selling will there be and what does this mean to the federal reserve. we are breaking down issues this morning on a special edition of mornings with berea. this feature is prepping for another big selloff. anthony scaramucci, what he do now with the markets of the this morning? >> where you want term higher. and then the contrary based on everything. number one the housing cycle on the verge of a recovery. we know that most job 60% of the jobs in small businesses are tied to housing with the recovery happening right now. good for jobs and wages. the second big thing is that banks are well capitalized relative to where they were in 2007. last week thing people need to know as it relates to interest rates and credit the united states and individual consumer at the lowest level of interest they pay on their credit. mortgages, consumer loans, student loans in the last decade. all of these things do very well for the u.s. economy. this happened in 1998 as we all remember. i don't do gets permit for the united states. nicole: it certainly is a contagion for a

federal reserve to raise interest rates soon. >>> hockey star patrick kane is under investigation for rape. the chicagong a woman in his home last weekend. the alleged victim went to a hospital where she was examined. they searched kane's home sunday. he's not been charged with any crime. >>> in missouri they are preparing to mark the first anniversary of mike brown's death. last year his killing sparked days of destructive riots. now residents are cleaning up. a new black police chief is mending ties with the community. >>> donald trump's tough talk didn't end with last night's debate. he's lashing out this morning at frank luntz who conducted a poll. they were often critical of trump and he was quick to respond on twitter. trump wrote, frank luntz, your so-called focus groups are a total joke. don't come to my office again looking for business. good morning. >> i've been called a lot of things but i've never been called a clown and those focus groups are accurate. what do you say when you won't guarantee to support the republican nominee, when you call women some pretty horrific names and insult the

chicago. >> reporter: carl, it seems has though we're starting to see a lot of things whether it's the staff putting issues regarding the dots in the federal reserveoutlook early. some of these numbers early. i understand we live in a highly tech world. many traders are a little gun shy to put full throttle horse power on the notion that the numbers are released prematurely. as you look at a chart of 10 -year note needleyields, it's just basically getting rocking and rolling right now. we can clearly see a couple of issues. first of all rates were already pushed down a bit. as all the issues of the day, maybe of them emanating from china and what it's doing to equity and various markets. we see that chicago pmi showed a snapshot of strength but the respondents question some of the sustainability issues regarding the pop, especially in new orders. instead die greszing a bit and talking about things like delays on some of the orders. backlogs and when i see this number at 52.7 definitely well below 53.5 no matter how you slice it we can debate how much slowing is going on globally. we could debate slowing is going on in the u.s. but there's no doubt