kuroda is standing by his forecast. and he is standing pat policy. if you look at the market, some as flattening, so they're betting on more stimulus sometime in the next few months. we talked of economists, and more than half the people we talked to said they expect an expansion of stimulus maybe in october. october 30 is the key many are looking at. others say it will not happen until january of next year. will haveaid the doj to acty again to get near that target. jonathan: is getting wages to go higher what the problem is? a great story on bloomberg.com that the oil price is $15 a barrel below the bank of japan's target. they have that problem, so does the bank of america -- bank of the u.k. and the fed. an: energy prices are definitely part of the problem, but corporate sentiment is also part of the problem. mr. kuroda is giving his virtuous cycle story, one he is to behind for quite a while. saying that tightness in the labor market will lead to wage increases which should lead to spending. but corporate earnings have been strong for the last 2

kuroda will scale back his forecast is another question. think you will hold out as long as possible. back, when he does cut it you can expect them to blame china, oil, and commodities. jonathan: brian, he can blame a lot of external factors. when is the prospect for more er itg for the boj -- wheth works as a separate question -- but do you think they will pull the trigger again? brian: i think it does, and more importantly the economist we have asked also seem to. 3 of 5 said more action is in the works. half think you could come as early as october 30. the rest see it in january or after. when it comes, it will come in the form of ets. jonathan: i'm not sure they will have the space but i can talk to my guest about that. going forward, what matters to these guys at the boj is inflation expectations and what the public believes will happen with inflation. do ordinary japanese people think inflation will pick up? do they think it is picking up? brian: that is the key question because of the japanese don't believe that it won't happen. we s

. >> kuroda says he expects the u.s. and other major economies to maintain solid growth. he predicted this will benefit emerging economies, and that japan's weakness in exports and imports will be temporary. he said export production will recover mildly. >>> u.s. secretary of state john kerry on friday attended a ceremony in hanoi marking 20 years of normalized diplomatic diplomatic relations with the united states. >> this is the 40th anniversary of the end of the vietnam war. and kerry is a veteran of that conflict. vietnam was his final stop on a five-nation tour of the middle east and southeast asia including three days of asean-related meetings in malaysia. kerry's visit was symbolically important for both countries. the former enemies are drawing closer. >> they voluntarily dug up their own rice paddies. they let us into their homes. into their history houses. into their prisons even. and on more than one occasion they guided us across what were quite literally minefields. >> the u.s. is seeking closer ties with vietnam amid china's growing presence in the asia-paci

the bank of japan has held off from monetary stimulus as kuroda from its softerge patch and inflationicks up. the central bank increases the that's $640e, million. german industrial inflation unexpectedly decreased in june. weaker growth and a emerging market country. help adjusted. -- output adjusted. estimates.s beat profit up 15%. -- alianza profit beats estimates. we spoke to the chief earlier and he highlighted how and just rates will affect. >> the interest rates are at the level we had in december, before christmas. they are in line with our expectations. rates --gher interest bond rates will move quite a bit. francine: shares in by come have plunged the most in seven years after the owner posted a third-quarter revenue decline more than expected. sales fell 11%, just over $3 billion. the results marked by comes fourth straight decline in u.s. advertising sales. north korea is moving its time later. it will come into effect on august 15, on the 70th anniversary of korea's break from japan. now it is five months until the iowa caucuses. the curtain raiser for both parties is --

kuroda in just a few minutes. we will see what he says.t more easing is in the works and that the market yield curves have been flattening and economists that we asked said that they expect more buying of etf and jgb's. maybe not until january year but some point in the next six months. corona seemsernor to be backing the fact that he can reach that target at 2% inflation. is there a sense that you are escaping deflation? >> it is kind of a good news, bad news situation. if you look at any measure of cpi they are all in positive territory. all in positive territory. that is even with energy prices where they are. wti at more than $100 a barrel when yuriko and less than half that now. believes we one will hit 2% buy a year for now. i think even mr. kuroda really doesn't believe that even though he will never say that. if he cannot reach the 2% inflation target will he ever people to step back from stimulus? >> that is the million-dollar question. everyone else in the world is tapering and japan will never get there. we did a poll of economi

they have many options so says kuroda. up 2/10 of a percent. rise youree rates stern to see less demand and higher rates making gold less attractive because they don't pay interest and now we are likely to see no rate hike. 2.9% in the euro trade actually a little bit higher. at a fewe a look stocks for to get some sentiment from oil companies. there is the rebound. we are seeing a bit more of those appetites for risk. >> three minutes into the session here. over in asia, the shanghai composite watches another tough morning. let's get over to david ingles. david: we finished at 0.5%. this is what happened today. day we did fall underwater with the exception of a few minutes. he wouldn't be faulted to speculate that this is kind of the line in the sand that regulators now may have stepped in and started supporting the market. it is quite a swing. what is happening here is separate from asia-pacific. really feel the tailwind coming from wall street overnight. this should not change much. banks at 2.3% and is caroline pointed out you are also gett

as i mentioned, the central bank governor, governor kuroda, said he didn't expect the weakness in industrial production and exports to continue. it looks like it is not exactly that strong. we will have to see what his pain threshold is. last week in new york to give a speech, and he was quite optimistic about various drivers of inflation. the central banks may engage -- main gauge. other times he pointed to other sides showing that inflation is higher. he is counting on higher wages and whatnot to kick in, and drive inflation higher over the course of this year. now, as today's data showed, the upbeat scenario may not be playing out. arran, the upbeat scenario is under pressure. that is a full roundup from all of our reporters. some of the low-inflation was market volatility. sluggish global growth won't deter the federal reserve. that is the take away from the central bank of annual jackson hole retreat. bloomberg sat down with several fed officials who were used to rule out a move in september. >> the key question for the committee is how much would you want to change the outlook based on

next monetary policy statement on friday morning before a news conference with governor corona -- kuroda a way to spark growth. a drop in household spending. happy birthday, singapore. it turns 50. we will have a series of special reports looking at how this tiny city state transformed itself into the economic powerhouse it is today. chinesep next -- visitors flocking when bloomberg -- "first up" returns. ♪ ♪ (ee-e-e-oh-mum-oh-weh) (hush my darling...) (don't fear my darling...) (the lion sleeps tonight.) (hush my darling...) man snoring (don't fear my darling...) (the lion sleeps tonight.) woman snoring take the roar out of snore. yet another innovation only at a sleep number store. shery: welcome back. it is 8:30 a.m. a beautiful warm and sunny day. an hour away from trading. you are watching "first up." ♪ shery: the top stories. china's official rating of the factory has fallen to a five-year low at 50 last month from 50.2 in june. weaker than expected numbers put pressure on the government to take further action. china's leadership has already pledged preemptive policy adjustments in

so kuroda at the boj, this is a very difficult scenario. sure that the boj will do in the months ahead. sherry: does abenomics mean a reboot? how would they go about doing that? willie: it means a very big reboot. what abenomics needs is a third base. it has monetary policy, fiscal policy, and structural reform. the structural reform part is the most of what impart. we haven't seen anything from the government in remaking the economy more competitive. we have seen a couple of nerf darts. the haven't really been any arrows at all. we are waiting for committees to pay employees more. their profits are up. they're not paying people more. the reason is that the structural reforms they are waiting for to make the economy more vibrant and competitive have not come through yet. that is what they are waiting for. sherry: thank you. checking in on some other stories we are following this morning, investors and hong kong higher interest rates after the surprise devaluation last week. the average yield on offshore yuan rose to its highest since may. h

bojwhen we -- we heard from kuroda and he is worried.at the boj is going to have to step in? : we are noter looking for more easing. the boj thinks the second-quarter slowdown is temporary. we think and inflation will fall short of 2% in 2016. angie: they still think they can get 2% by the end of 2016. izumi devalier: within the policy borders, there are differences. if wages are heading in the right direction and inflation is holding up, the inclination is not the ease right now. angie: we are going to continue to see this divergent happen, a lot of people thinking it will be september when the fed raises rates. actually, we have breaking news right now. second-quarter gdp figures, got right now. the latest with even one man and she is standing by with the figures. -- yvonne man and she is standing by. yvonne: better than expected. second quarter gdp following annualized 1.6%. the estimate was 1.8%. were forecasting a contraction of course from the second quarter. snapping 2 quarters of growth we saw. slightly smaller than what we expec