and it's a decision is close, it will be influenced by data that come in recently. >> peter orszag ise investment in citigroup and a former director of the office of management and budget and they said at the top of the show, peter, there is two things, china and the fed. >> yep. >> we've kind of talked about the fed a lot in the court appoint and when i saw you, i wanted to talk to you about china. they put a sound byte in, you know from fisher. so i'm supposed to go that way. >> i think steve and the rest of the commentary is right that you can't argue that 25 basis points is going to change the world and so the fed has been trying to mover thereafter. one point is if you wait until december, you are running a risk there is some risk. i don't think it's high, of a debt limit showdown in december or january. >> it is the political season. i don't know when it isn't. you are hearing a lot of more hard liners on the right say look the only thing we were able to do is to use the purse and you know to say we're not going to do it anymore. even though they didn't, maybe some lessons shoul

tom: peter orszag. charles: we have needs for investment, including education.s lots you can imagine from a fiscal capacity. here is what we lack, debt capacity. we do not have the debt capacity to do those things. real reform, which we could have done with bowles simpson, if obama would have been serious, could it put us in a position to break through this. an exclusive. i think they agreed on something. let's look at oil, not on the demand side, the supply side. global oil production was once flat. then it went up, then it really went up, up, up. this curve of his more and more in accelerating with production. teachs calomiris, you this at columbia. there is a point where the microeconomics gets squishy. doing away the price is on oil right now? charles: $40 a barrel. tom: but it is still moving, isn't it? charles: yes, but what i think this graph is telling you is pretty clear. what is been the major shifter driving the oil market? tom: technology. charles: expansion of supply and technology. that is going to continue. i think it is a positive for the u.s.. l